Education

European Perspective

Education, Employment, and Sustainable Development in the European Union

I. Gaballah, A. Dufourg, and D. Tondeur
This paper examines the current and prospective status of education, employment, and sustainable development in the European Union (EU). Due to the decrease of the birth rate and the increase of life expectation, the size of the labor force is decreasing and its average age is increasing. Moreover, rapid technological evolution will necessitate long-life learning for the old workers and young people. It will be a challenge to supply the EUs labor market with an adequate number of workers with the appropriate skill ad tempus. This will change profoundly the classical education system that will become the largest economic sector in the next decade. INTRODUCTION It is well known that demography and education have a strong mutual inuence and condition the labor forces skill and efciency. It seems therefore appropriate to begin this paper by addressing recent demographic trends in the worlds main industrialized countries. Table I describes the evolution of the population as well as the 1564 age group for EU-15 (i.e., Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Netherlands), United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States, respectively, between 1995 and 2025. It is clear that the population of Japan will slightly decrease by 2025 while that of EU-15 and the United States will grow. Moreover, the 1564 age group of Japan will decrease substantially by 2025. The same age group of EU-15 will be more or less stable up to 2025 and that of the United States will continue to increase up to 2015 and will be stable between 2015 and 2025. This evolution can be attributed to a decrease in fertility2 and an increase in
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life expectancy. 3 Consequently, a decreasing number of children and increasing life expectation augment the number of inactive members of the total population. Therefore, the active population will decrease and the average age of the labor force will increase. This situation could affect the labor market where industry has difculties in recruiting the engineers and scientists needed. This could slow down the technical and economical development of EU, Japan, and, to a lesser extent, the United States.1 Moreover, over the next decade, 80% of all technology used throughout the economy will be replaced or upgraded, shortening the half-life of most workplace skills to some 42 months.4 This implies that an enormous effort is required to ensure that the level of the workforce skills stays abreast of these changes in order to maintain and improve overall productivity levels. This situation is already precipitating serious mismatches between supply and demand for skills on the labor market. These trends will affect the structure and type of higher-education establishments (HEE) in the near future. Thus, the

fast evolution of technology combined with the general aging of the working population in industrialized countries will necessitate the adequate structures for long-life learning (LLL)5 that could include classical HEE as well as corporation universities, e-learning,6 tailored courses, internal and external training, virtual institutions, and networking. Projection of labor force size is a difficult task since the relationship between economic growth and employment are indirect and not particularly easy to model. Employment models are very sensitive to initial assumptions such as that of business-as-usual. However, the evolution of information and computer technologies in the 1980s and the 1990s indicates that such assumptions are unrealistic. Under these circumstances, all long-term projection of employment is only tentative. Just the underlying demographic trend can be projected. Notwithstanding these precautions, Figure 1 indicates the workforce reduction of the EU-15 will be the principal effect of demographic aging in this decade. Starting from 2007, the average age of the labor force will increase by 2.5 years to 42.5, and the labor

Table I. Evolution of Population and the 1564 Age Group for Japan, EU-15*, and the United States1 (1992 = 100) EU-15 Population 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 100.0 101.0 102.0 103.7 104.3 105.0 105.7 1564 years 100.0 100.6 101.0 102.1 101.0 100.0 98.0 Japan Population 100.0 101.0 102.0 102.0 100.0 99.0 97.0 1564 years 100.0 99.0 97.0 93.5 89.0 85.0 84.0 United States Population 100.0 103.3 107.5 111.9 116.3 120.0 124.0 1564 years 100.0 105.0 110.7 115.8 118.5 119.0 119.0

* EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.

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HISTORICAL
800 600 Annual Change of Labor Force (x1000) 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 1998 Annual Change As % of Active Population 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 Labor Force at 1997 Constant Activity Rate 0.4 0.3 Annual Change of Labor Force (%) 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7

Figure 1. Annual labor force change due to demographic changes (EU-15 19982025).7

force will decrease within the EU-15s population by 2.15 million between 2005 and 2015. On the other hand, HEE, particularly universities, have for several years been confronted with profound changes. These changes have involved their opening up to and interacting with society, from the local to the international level.8 Recruitment of future members of the scientic and technical communities has been hindered not only by demographic trends (Figure 1), but by changing attitudes: Young people are turning away from studying science and scientic careers because science and technology are no longer considered, by the EUs public opinion at least, as panaceas to problems such as the greenhouse effect, genetically modied organisms, mad cow disease, and AIDS. However, public opinion still has a fair perception of the scientic and technical communities.9 An opinion poll in the 15 states of the EU, requested by the directorate general for research, was performed between 10 May and 15 June 2001.9 Table II groups the answers to the question, For which of the following professions do you have the most esteem? In spite of the above-mentioned problems, the three most highly regarded professions have a scientic or technical dimension. Moreover, 80% of Europeans believe that science will one day defeat diseases such as cancer or AIDS, and 72% of the respondents said they would like politicians to use expert advice in making their choices.9 On the global level, both individuals and their governments widely accept
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that education is the most important investment they make. Within the EU, education is guaranteed to grow rapidly to become the largest economic sector before the end of the decade, as well as the most important for the social and industrial development of the society of the EU.10 On the other hand, environmental problems such as global warming, ozone depletion, and air contamination can only be resolved on the global level and by adopting education and policy measures for sustainable development. European sustainable-development priorities include climate change, public health hazards, poverty and social exclusion, pressure on natural resources, aging populations, transportation bottlenecks and pollution, as well as social aspects and environmental impacts on the industrial sector and related services.10 Pressure on natural resources call for multidisciplinary research and policy measures to enhance inverse manufacturing, remanufacturing, recycling, and waste treatment and minimization in addition to reengineering and clean technology. To attain such objectives, it is necessary to educate future members of the scientic and technical communities. Moreover, employees should be trained frequently to match the need of the society for efficient staff to bridge the gap due to the rapid technological evolution. Both groups should be capable of achieving the goals of the sustainable development policy and fullling the necessary tasks for economic development.

To measure the importance of efforts to be made, a brief look to the past of French universities may be useful. The oldest French HEE can be considered as that of Paris, created around 1200 and considered as a corporation of Matres et tudiants. It received the name of university in 1250 when the Sorbonne was founded. Up to the eighteenth century, it took about 600 years to create, organize, and certify 23 French HEE. In spite of these efforts, the percentage of illiteracy was signicant, at about 60% for women during the rst half of the nineteenth century.10 In 1882, a law was promulgated, thanks to Jules Ferry, minister of public instruction, making education of children from six to 13 years old compulsory and free. In less than 20 years, the percentage of illiteracy fell to about 5%.11 Nowadays, about 97% of French children of age two years and older attend nursery school.12 However, the challenge in the near future will not be only quantitative but also qualitative. The LLL, university corporations, short courses, etc. will help, but, for students and adults, learning how to learn13 could be part of the real solution to this problem. Over the past three decades in EU-15, remarkable achievements have been made in the field of environmental protection.14 For example, SO2 emissions were reduced by 60% between 1980 and 1995. However, other environmental issues continue to pose massive challenges. For instance, the greenhouse effect induces problems such as clay

Table II. Answers to the Question For Which of the Following Professions Do You Have the Most Esteem?* Profession Doctors Scientists Engineers Judges Sportsmen Artists Lawyers Journalists Businessmen None of the above Politicians Do not know Rate 71.1 44.9 29.8 27.6 23.4 23.1 18.1 13.6 13.5 6.9 6.6 3.0

* Opinion poll performed in the EU-15 during MayJune 2001.9

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Table III. Registration by Level of Education (1,000), Data 1998/199916 Total Population PrePrimary Primary School Secondary PostHigher School Secondary Education Total

EU-15 US Japan

365,435 250,660 124,043

10,718 7,183 2,962

23,064 24,938 7,692

18,955 10,220 4,558

999 1,643 13

12,525 13,769 3,941

84,299 69,978 23,567

shrinkage, drought, windstorms, and tropical cyclones.15 This article will provide details on the EUs current situation. Projections of evolution will be summarized thanks to the Future project undertaken by IPTS.15,7,10,15 EDUCATION As mentioned previously, education in the EU is guaranteed to grow rapidly to become the largest economic sector before the end of the decade. This is due to two main reasons: the technological evolution is rapid, thus necessitating LLL, and the need exists to extend the labor force with new population segments such as women, immigrants, and retirees, to compensate for the demographic trends. In the EU member states, primary and secondary education are already available to the whole population and usually mandatory for all young people. It is the school starting and leaving ages that vary between the member states. Table III groups the repartition of students during the whole cycle of education for the EU-15, the United States, and Japan. The data analysis of this table is given below. Nursery and Primary Schools In the EU-15, more than 50% of children who are four years old attend nursery school. However, this percentage varies from 36% in Finland to almost 100% in Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, France, Luxembourg, and the U.K. More than 97% of children attend primary school.17 Secondary School About 71% and 48% of the respective age groups 2529 and 5064 of EU-15 have nished secondary school. This conrms the sharp progress made in the last three decades.18
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Higher Education About 21% of the age group 2564 have completed a higher-education program as shown in Table IV. However, this percentage varies with respect to the sex and the resident country. It is the minimum for Italian women and the maximum for Finnish women. It is also the minimum for Italy and Portugal and maximum for Finland. While the level of higher education in EU-15 is important, that of the United States is better adapted in terms of quantity as indicated in Table III, and in terms of quality, due to the capacity of matching skills with those demanded by the labor market. Educational Outlook The EU-15s educational system has almost the same pattern as other industrialized countries. It manages 84.3 million students, which is equal to 22% of the total population and about 70% of people under 30. However, this system does not fulll completely the need for LLL from the quantitative and qualitative point of view. It is probable that education of children from three years up to the age of 18 years, across the existing EU members, will be generalized before 2010.10 However, higher education, with around one-third of young persons participating, is still far from saturation

across the EU. Accordingly, government investment in higher education is due for signicant expansion, and participation by young students is likely to double over this decade. The most dramatic expansion in the existing education system will focus on LLL. The current and projected structures of LLL are clearly insufcient with respect to the predicted needs to retrain 80% of EU workers over the next decade as their jobs are destroyed by radical changes in technology. This training will shift from the conventional in-house, on-the-job experiential training. Instead, in the knowledge society, where employability is now the prime factor, the needs will be for longer-term education that provides intellectual frameworks for individual development rather than shorter-term training providing immediate job skills for employers. The European Commission (EC) needs to set and monitor standards, where much of LLL may be delivered across national boundaries and the resulting new qualifications will need to be recognized across the EU. An important extension of this process will be to certify providers of LLL. EMPLOYMENT In the EU-15, about 63% of people the age group 1564 years are employed.16 For the same age group, it is equal to 74% and 69% for the United States and Japan, respectively. Moreover, while employment remains at the top of the policy agenda, the rate of unemployment in the EU-15 is around 8.2%. In the next decade, employment will remain at the top of the policy agenda but it will focus on employability, know-how, and quality of work opportunities. Effect of Demography The labor force is changing, from + 9.4 million workers between 1985

Table IV. Percentage of Group Age 2564 Having Higher-Education Diplomas*18 EU-15 Total Men Women 21 22 19 B 27 26 27 DK 27 26 27 D 23 28 18 EL 17 19 15 E 20 22 19 F 21 21 21 IRL 22 26 22 I L NL 23 25 20 A 11 12 10 P 10 8 11 FIN 31 28 34 S 29 27 30 UK 27 29 25

10 18 10 22 9 15

* EU-15: Belgium (B), Denmark (DK), Germany (D), Greece (EL), France (F), Ireland (IRL), Italy (I), Luxembourg (L), Netherlands (NL), Austria (A), Portugal (P), Finland (FIN), Sweden (S), United Kingdom (UK).

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and 1995 to a projected shortage of 2.15 million between 2005 and 2015.5 Moreover, this shortage will be aggravated by what is called triple aging, an increase in the share of people aged +65, +80, and the aging of workforce).1 However, because of mismatched skills, one may underline that the shortage of the labor force does not mean the end of unemployment. Within the EU-15, the fast-decreasing number of workers aged 1529 and the fast-increasing number of people aged 50 and over will necessitate the massive development of age-specic re-training. Supply-Demand Pattern The fast development of the European economy, especially in high-tech and ICT sectors, shifts the labor force from blue-collar to white-collar. Moreover, as the half-life time of most workplaces decreases, the skills of these white-collar employees should be upgraded frequently. In other words, the young skilled labor force should live with LLL. One may underline that an aging population with a shrinking labor force and a skill mismatch could jeopardize the social and economic development of future generations. To bridge these gaps, it is necessary to make work more accessible and attractive to workers who are women, approaching retirement, unemployed, inactive, and immigrants. In the EUs labor market, the divergence continues between the turnover rate of new skills and knowledge requirements and the systems capacity to follow with an adequate, up-to-date supply. This is reected by a lower growth of the EU-15s gross domestic product (GDP), especially during the period of 19952001 (Table V), that is attributed to better adaptation of the U.S. labor market to the technological evolution and skill matching. Outlook for Employment Employment projections are mainly based on the scenario of business-asusual, which could be false as articial intelligence and increasing productivityper-worker could profoundly change the current situation. In addition, due to the general aging of the population, it is expected that social economy5 activities in the non-prot sector or initiated activities with a clear social
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dimensionwill undergo important development in the near future. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT In the 1940s, the French writer SaintExupry stated We dont inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children. Similarly, the Brundtland Commission (1987) dened sustainable development as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.14 The idea that the management of natural resources and the environment should be consistent with the preservation of its reproductive capacity has become, along with the promotion of economic and social progress, one of the fundamental objectives of the EU as expressed in the Treaty of the European Union. In the June 2001 Gothenburg summit, EU leaders endorsed, as a response to the EUs public opinion demand, a strategy for sustainable development based on three pillars relating to economic, social, and environmental development. The integration of the three pillars into a single strategy was designed to ensure that in the longer-term, economic growth, social protection, and environmental quality would all be developed in a harmonious balance. On the other hand, the legal status of nature is increasingly considered as the common heritage of a nation or of humanity as a whole. It includes not only a set of saleable objects to which a money value may be attributed, but also a set of symbolic values contributing to the common denition of group identity and group memory and which, in this sense, is unsaleable. The idea of heritage is, therefore, a dialectical concept: as capital it needs to be conserved and protected. Insofar as it refers to the interest on this capital, heritage may be managed with a view to consumption.19 This concept is out of reach of the market short view, as it is impossible to price non-renewable resources. However, development is sustainable when it is economically efficient, politically democratic and pluralistic, socially equitable, and environmentally sound.20 With respect to sustainable development, the past 50 years of Europes history can be split in two

Table V. Growth of Real GDP in EU-15, Japan, and U.S.13 1975 1985 EU-15 Japan U.S. 2.3 3.8 3.4 1985 1990 3.3 4.9 3.2 1990 1995 1.4 1.4 2.4 1995 2001 2.4 1.1 3.6

different eras of policy making. From 1960 to 1975, old, often inefcient, highly polluting industrial plants were closed. This was not only efficient for cleaning up the environment, but also assisted an ongoing structural change of European economy.15 The socioeconomic impact of these measures was important and painful for monoindustry regions such as Lorraine in France and Saareland in Germany. The next 25 years saw environment policy-makers concentrating on more complex problems. However, the impact of environmental regulations on employment and loss of competitiveness appears to have been small. Moreover, a whole new sector took off during this period. The environment industry provides technology and services in air-pollution control, water treatment, waste management, noise and vibration control, soil remediation, etc. The annual turnover of the EUs enterprises in this sector is close to 100 million euros and its share exceeds 30% of the global market. This sector created directly and indirectly some 1.5 million jobs. Some advanced corporations have also found ways to obtain a competitive advantage by introducing environmental considerations into their decisionmaking.15 They also composed innovative associations such as the World Business Council for Sustainable Development to consolidate their position. One example of this strategic thinking, turning products into services, is interesting because it seems to have been driven more by the market than by policy making. An example of this concept is painting of cars instead of paint for cars. In a recent agreement between the car manufacturer, Ford U.K., and DuPont, the car-painting operations were outsourced to DuPont, which sells integrated coating services
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rather than liters of paint. The productinto-service concept has been shown to increase resource productivity by up to a factor of ten. The increased productivity eco-efciency (output/environmental pressure such as eco-efficiency = output/emissions) results from signicant reductions in raw material costs and/or a signicant reduction in wastedisposal costs. This is because a paint seller wants to sell more paint, whereas a car painter tends to minimize the amount of paint used per car. Material and Energy Use The EUs economy is moving toward its dematerialization and decarbonization through policy measures and enterprise modernization. The total material requirement (TMR) in the EU-15 is about 50 t/capita (1997). The TMR of the United States is 88 t/capita (1994) that of Japan is 42 t/capita (1994).21,22 From 1980 to 1997, the direct material input (DMI) of the EU-15 grew only by 8%, and since 1989, the level has been rather constant. The DMI measures the input of used materials into the economy (i.e., all materials that are of economic value and are used in production and consumption activities). This led to a relative decoupling of GDP from DMI. On the other hand, from 1980 to 1997, direct material productivity of EU-15 had increased by about 30%, as shown by Table VI and Figure 2. This conrms the progression of the de-coupling of resource use from economic growth of the EU-15 through signicantly improved resource efficiency, dematerialization, and consequently, waste decrease.22 On the other hand, Table VII shows the evolution of the reallocation of energy sources within the EU-15 between 1985 and 1998. It is clear that the EUs economy, as in all industrialized

Table VI. EUs Consumption of Materials, 19801997 (base 1980 = 100)23 Item/Year Material consumption per inhabitant Material consumption tonnes Material efciency (GDP [euros] per kg) 1980 100 100 100 1985 100 101 107 1990 104 106 119 1997 102 108 131

140 130 Production Percentage 120 110 100 Eco-efciency 90 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Material Inputs

Figure 2. The ecoefciency of EU manufacturing industry with respect to material inputs (1985 = 100).

countries, depends largely on nonrenewable fossil energy. However, one may note the increase in shares of natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable sources of energy and the decrease in shares of lignite and coal. As could be expected, the greenhouse emissions decrease, also. Figure 3 shows the evolution of production, energy inputs, and ecoefciency between 1985 and 1999 in the EU-15. During this period, in spite of increasing production, the energy input is stable or slightly decreasing. Since the 1970s, due to the higher dependency of EU-15 on energy imports as compared to the United States, the eco-efciency of the manufacturing sector of EU-15 is systematically higher than that of the United States (Figure 4), thus leading to lower emissions of greenhouse gases and to a higher efciency of energy use, as shown by Figure 5. Water Use Water resources in EU-15 are unevenly distributed both in space and time. They are important for human,
140

agriculture, and industrial activities as well as for the ecosystem and, consequently, biodiversity. During the last 50 years, water use has grown fourfold due to such factors as population growth, higher consumption levels, agricultural and industrial development, and recreational use expansion. This causes wetland losses and supply shortages in some places. Moreover, water resources in Europe are under increasing pressure due to the bioaccumulation of toxic chemicals generated by the industrial and agriculture sectors, the emerging signals of global warming, the more or less persistent drought, etc.21 This leads to an imbalance of water supply and demand in terms of quantity and quality. For these reasons and since the 1980s, the EU issued the following directives: 98/83/EC on the quality of drinking water intended for human consumption, establishing some 50 parameters essential for heath and environment and imposing an obligation to inform the consumer on water quality. 91/271/EEC and 98/15/EC conFigure 3. The ecoefciency of EU manufacturing industry (1985 = 100).
Production

Table VII. Evolution of the Pattern of EUs Energy Consumption23

Percentage

130 Eco-efciency 120 110 100 90

Item Petroleum and petroleum products Natural gas Lignite and derivatives Nuclear energy Renewable energy Coal and solid derivatives

1985 42 16 8 12 5 17

1998 42 22 3 15 6 12

Energy Inputs 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

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cerning urban wastewater treatment, setting minimum standards for the collection, treatment, and discharge of municipal wastewater (sewage and industrial efuent). Its requirements have been implemented progressively from 1993 and are expected to continue until 2005. Until now, the member states of the EU have spent about 100 billion euros in order to comply with the directive. In addition, it is expected that as much as 30 billion euros will be spent before 2005 to comply with the directive.21 Table VIII groups the water consumption by sector of activity. Clearly, the agriculture sector is the main user of water in the EU. One may underline that use of water for irrigation, which is mostly practiced in Southern Europe, has expanded by about 70% over the last 20 years. The agriculture sector consumes more than 60% of the total water demand in the EU.21 Moreover, agriculture is one of the biggest polluters of Europes inland waters because of use of phosphates and nitrates. These compounds continue to cause eutrophication of surface waters. Finally, groundwater quality is also affected by increasing the concentrations of nitrate and pesticides. As the risk of drought in Europe increases with climate changes, in Southern Europe, the competition between regions and/or nations for (irrigation) water may increase.16 Soil Use Soil contamination has been identied as a major problem in Europe.7 Over 300,000 contaminated sites have been identied. The cost of cleaning up these sites will vary according to the intensity of cleaning and the time period over which the clean-up is carried out. This cost for Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, and the U.K. represents some 3% to 4% of the GDP. For Germany, it may vary from 5% to 25% of its GDP. This is probably due to soil contamination in abandoned military sites in East Germany that poses serious risks. On the other hand, current agricultural practices, especially in Southern Europe, lead to soil depletion, pollution, compaction, and erosion. The erosion rate
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6 EU 5 Percentage 4 3 2 1 USA

Figure 4. A comparison of the eco-efciency of manufacturing industry in EU and the United States (1985 = 100).

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

160 140 Percentage 120 100 80 60 40 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Production Emissions Eco-efciency

Figure 5. The ecoefciency of EU manufacturing industry: CO2 emissions (1985 = 100).

varies from one country to another and depends on the nature of cultivated species. Between 1980 and 1999, soil erosion was between 1.6 billion tonnes and 1.7 billion tonnes. Habitats and species are under increasing threat from intensive agriculture in all parts of Europe. Solid Wastes Table IX summarizes the material ow balance of the EU-15 in 1996.22 The total input is about 18.5 billion tonnes. The rst striking gures of this table are those of waste disposal (5.2 billion tonnes), emissions to air (4.1 billion tonnes), emission of water from materials (3.7 billion tonnes), and erosion (1.1 billion tonnes). They already add up to 14.2 billion tonnes out of the total of 18.5 billion tonnes. The real input could be considered as the net addition to stock (NAS) plus exportation, which represents about

22% of the total material input. (NAS measures the physical growth rate of an economy. New materials are added to the economys stock each year in buildings and other infrastructure, and materials incorporated into new durable goods such as cars, industrial machinery, and household appliances.) Consequently, about 78% of all the material input is converted to waste. The EU-15, Japan, and the United States, are characterized by continuing NAS. Thus, these industrial economies are growing steadily in physical terms at the expense of naturally productive land. Such a situation is far from sustainable. Robert U. Ayres24 reviewed a similar material ow balance for key industrial materials. He claims that more than 90% of the total mass of materials processed annually is converted into waste almost as fast as extracted. He focused his work on industrial

Table VIII. Water Consumption by Sector of Activity (m3 per inhabitant per year) South Europe* 1980 Total consumption Agriculture Manufacturing industry Public
* EL, E, PT ** DK, F, NL, A, FIN, S, UK

North Europe** 1995 852 701 52 99 1980 265 39 119 106 1985 249 41 100 108 1990 243 42 88 112 1995 217 48 65 104

1985 817 666 38 113

1990 738 606 38 94

815 606 105 104

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Table IX. Material Flow Balance of EU-15, 1996, Million Tonnes22 Material Input Imports Abiotic raw materials used: Minerals Fossil fuels Unused abiotic raw materials Extraction Excavation Biotic raw materials Air Erosion Total input Material Output Waste disposal Landlled waste Landll and mine dumping Emissions to air CO2 NOx, SO2, CO, and others Emissions of water from materials Exports Erosion Dissipative use of products and dissipative losses Emissions to water Total output Net additions to stock TOTAL 1,291 8,607 3,055 757 4,795 3,552 1,243 2,132 5,392 1,104 18,526 5,228 434 4,795 4,116 3,978 138 3,715 366 1,104 264 12 14,806 3,720 18,526

cycle. This concept will be extended to other industrial sectors and will probably decrease the ultimate waste volume. Figure 7 groups the repartition of methods of treatment of hazardous waste. Clearly, landlling and incineration are the most common methods.25 However, with the implementation of the European Council directive on landfilling of waste, landlling will be regulated and restricted in the near future. For instance, the 1997 proposal for a directive on the landlling of waste states that charges for landlling would be required to reect the costs involved in setting up and operating the site, and the estimated costs of closure and aftercare of the site for a period of at least 50 years.21 Consequently, the cost of waste prevention could be cheaper than that of waste disposal and, thus, incite the enterprises to redesign their process and/or products as well as the recycling or the treatment of their wastes. Air Pollution Table X shows the evolution of specic gases emissions between 1980 and 1998 in quantities and per capita. With the exception of carbon dioxide emissions, which increased slightly with respect to 1985 levels, all other emissions have declined by more than 20%. The most spectacular emission drop is that of SO2 (67%). However, part
40 30 Percentage 20 10 0

Others Hazardous 1.9% 6.2% Municipal 12.5%

Mining 28.3%

Industry 25.2% Agriculture 26%

Figure 6. The estimated repartition of wastes generated in the EU-15.

processing and not the whole material ow in the United States. Considering this difference, it seems that a NAS value of 22% for the whole material ow in EU-15 is an acceptable one. The total current generation of wastes by the EU is estimated at 2.2 billion tonnes.3 An approximate repartition is shown in Figure 6. One may underline that the mining wastes share is the largest because of massive importation of precious metal ores (Au, Pt, Pd, Rh, Ir, Os, Ru). One may underline that about 260,000 tonnes of platinum ore are processed to produce one tonne of this metal. Figure 6 also indicates that 1.9% of the total generated wastes are considered hazardous. Industrial wastes rose by an average of 2.5% per year between 1990 and 1995. 21 The EU is using a variety of approaches to tackle the growing volume of solid wastes, including waste prevention, reuse, recycling, clean technologies, incineration, pretreatment, and landll disposal. The targets are to reduce waste to nal disposal by 20% of 2000 levels by 2010 and by 50% by 2050.22 On the other hand, the concept of product responsibility (introduced in the 1994 directive on packaging and packaging waste) requires the manufacturers to get involved in managing their products at the end-of-life
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of the reduction of acidifying emissions could be explained by the shift of the non-ferrous metal extraction sector from primary to secondary metal production and/or to the delocalization of primary metal production. An analysis of the data of Table IX indicates that waste disposal and air emissions total more than 50% of the total material input. As described previously, efforts concerning the decarbonization and dematerialization of the economy of the EU decreased the emissions level to less than that of 1990. However, these emissions are still important. In 1996, about 4.1 billion tonnes were emitted to the atmosphere, making it one of
Figure 7. The treatment and disposal of hazardous waste by method in Europe (mid-1990s).25

Physico/chemical Incineration Treatment

Recovery Operations

Landll

Other Treatment

Table X. Evolution of Toxic Gases Emissions in the EU-1516 1985 VOC* (1,000 t) VOC (kg/capita) CO (1,000 t) CO (kg/capita) CO2 (1,000,000 t) CO2 (t/capita) SO2 (1,000 t) SO2 (kg/capita) NOx (1,000 t) NOx (kg/capita) 15,357 43 51,119 143 19,371 54 13,233 37 1988 15,375 43 51,015 141 17,756 49 13,635 38 1990 1992 1995 12,819 34 48,694 131 3,260 8.8 10,292 28 11,537 31 1996 12,254 33 39,426 106 3,336 9.0 8,854 24 11,332 30 1997 11,915 32 37,748 101 3,278 8.8 7,970 21 10,828 29 1998 11,684 31 36,850 98 3,327 8.9 7,894 21 10,621 28

15,149 14,143 42 39 49,982 46,021 137 125 3,320 3,267 9.1 8.9 16,314 13,528 45 37 13,301 12,889 37 35

* VOC = volatile organic compounds

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the largest global waste deposits of our planet. This will affect the health of the population, lead to exhaustion of non-renewable resources, amplify the greenhouse effect, and, thus, jeopardize long-term sustainable development. The authors of this paper suggest that air pollution may be the most urgent problem that our planet is facing. This is because air is simply a vital support for mankind. Implications of air pollution are global and could jeopardize life itself on the blue planet. Moreover, it is clear that long-term economic growth cannot be sustained in such conditions. Outlook for Sustainability The EU is moving toward waste prevention, followed by recycling, waste recovery and incineration, and nally, only as a last resort, land lling. It favors low-energy, waste-free manufacturing. Environmental-protection expenditures are increasing and environmental goals are beginning to be integrated into industrial decision-making. Some of the new business concepts and initiatives or policy measures made by governments and institutions to meet environmental goals are turning products into services, inverse manufacturing, remanufacturing, eco-design, life cycle approaches, dematerialization, greening of products and services, and integrated product policies. The main objective of these initiatives is to increase the efciency of the energy and material input, to minimize the volume and the impact of waste streams, and to extend the lifetime of a product or service. Such concepts will probably change the manufacturing sector and the way of life toward a more sustainable society. Finally, it may be useful to note that the cost of achieving the Kyoto objectives for the EU-15 has been estimated to be between 0.2% and 1.5% of the GDP, depending on effort distribution from the time of scale-up to 2010.3
References
1. Gry Coomans, Europes Changing Demography Constraints and Bottlenecks, Series No. 08, EUR 18967 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, June 1999), www.jrc.es. 2. R. Scase, Demographic and Social Trends Issue Paper: Mosaic Living, Series No. 07, EUR 18969 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, September 1999), www.jrc.es. 3. G. Fahrenkrog and L. Delgado, Financing Social

OVERALL OUTLOOK Education, demography, employment, and technology are important factors that shape the upcoming aging industrial society. For the next decade, it will be a real challenge to supply the labor market with sufcient workers with the appropriate skills as the labor force shifts from a 6.4 million surplus between 1995 and 2005 to a 2.1 million shortage between 2005 and 2015. Although the labor force can be expanded to include less traditional workers, such solutions will always have a limited impact. For example, increasing the number of women in the labor force may lead to a lower birth rate or will necessitate extending nursery services that will absorb a part of the labor force. In addition to the quantitative threat of a dwindling work force, industries must contend with the qualitative issue of the need to retrain 80% of workers whose jobs will be destroyed or radically modied due to technological evolution. Thus, large-scale deployment of LLL will be required to upgrade the skills of older workers and train the young ones. Consequently, the need to teach the teachers who are going to perform the LLL is one of the most urgent and difcult tasks. If not anticipated, this could be a rst-rank inhibiting factor for growth and competitiveness. Let us keep in mind that if the builders of cathedrals had been hampered by their social and economic conditions, none of the 80 cathedrals built between Poland and Portugal during the fteenth century would exist. It is the will of people and their determination that make things happen and change the course of history. As for education, the EU-15 has an adequate classical educational system that hosts about 85 million students. Clearly, this system should switch from a static model, based on an assumption of lifetime employment, to a dynamic one to provide life-long employability. In other words, the educational system should shift from its classical teaching of students to teaching learning how to learn, thus insuring a long-term intellectual investment that can be of help for adults facing rapid technological evolution. On one hand, it is important to underline that caring employment is expected to have the largest growth in new jobs that are not always of high skill. On the other hand, the shift from manufacturing to services tends to accentuate the decline of lower-skilled workers. As a result of the needs for LLL and Training the Teachers, the education sector of the EU-15 could provide the largest economic activity within the next decade. The sustainability of the economy of EU-15 has improved as signs of the decoupling of the GDP from the direct material and energy input have been revealed by a decrease of greenhouse emissions. However, the level of gaseous emissions is still signicant. About 78% of the total material input in EU-15, 18.5 billion tonnes, is converted into wastes. The amount of air emissions (CO2, CO, SO2, NOx) is about 4.12 billion tonnes and that of erosion and water from materials is 1.1 million tonnes and 3.72 million tonnes, respectively. As the EU moves toward waste prevention, environmental goals are beginning to be integrated in the decision-making within governments institution and enterprises. A more sustainable society will develop as new business concepts and initiatives as well as policy measures extend the lifetime of products and services, increase the efciency of the energy and material input, and minimize the volume and the impact of waste streams, etc. Finally, the 1960s vision of General de Gaulle, former French president, of a Europe extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains seems to be nearing reality. Before the end of this decade, the enlargement of the EU-15 to EU-28 will probably be completed by means of a historically unique and peaceful process based on voluntary agreements between autonomous governments. The enlargement of the EU-15 to Central and East European countries is a historical event that could be compared to the Marshall Plan dedicated to Western Europe in the 1940s. Unied Europe, with about 500 million people, will represent the largest common market in the world. This is a unique chance for Europes diversication in a culture associated with hope for peace, stability, and the welfare of the entire European population. However, the enlargement of and continuing cohesion within the EU cannot be accomplished without costs and efforts from the new member states and the EU during two or three decades so as to catch up the social and economic levels of EU-15.
Protection and a Sustainable Environment, Series No. 16, EUR 19036 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, December 1999), www.jrc.es. 4. J. P. Gavigan, M. Ottitsch, and S. Mahroum, Towards a Learning Europe, Series No. 14, EUR 19034 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, December 1999), www.jrc.es. 5. J.P Gavigan, M. Ottitsch, and C. Greaves, Demographic and Social Trends Panel Report, Series No. 02, EUR 18729 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, April 1999), www.jrc.es. 6. e-Learning, Designing Tomorrows Education, COM(2000) 318 Final (Brussels, Commission of the European Communities, 2000). 7. K. Ducatel and J.-C. Burgelman, Employment Map, Series No.13 , EUR 19033 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, December 1999), www.jrc.es. 8. Science and Society: Action Plan, COM (2001) 714 nal (Brussels, Commission of the European Communities, 2001). 9. Europeans, Science and Technology: Eurobarometer 55.2 (December 2001), www.cordis.lu. 10. D. Mercer, The Future of Education in Europe until 2010, Series No. 06, EUR 18968 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS,

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June 1999), www.jrc.es. 11. J. Isaac and H. Bjean, Hachette, Histoire de lAntiquit 1939 (Paris, Hachette, 1950), p. 546. 12. Les chiffres cles de lducation en Europe, EUs press release No. 24/2000 (24 February 2000). 13. 2002 European Competitiveness Report, Cstaff Working Paper [COM(2002) 262 Final] (Brussels, Commission of the European Communities, 2002). 14. P. Srup and T. Gameson, Natural Resources and the Environment Panel Report, EUR 18970 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, June 1999), www.jrc.es. 15. P. Vellinga, T.E. Downing, and T. Karacostas, Climate Change and Extreme Events, Summary nal report of project No. EV-CT94-0391 (Brussels, Commission of the European Communities, December 1995), www.cordis.lu. 16. Annuaire, Eurostat 2002, Le guide statistique de lEurope (19902000) (Luxembourg: Ofce for Ofcial Publications of the European Communities, 2002), http://Europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat. 17. Key Figures of European Education, Eurostat, News Release No. 24/2000 (Luxembourg: Ofce for Ofcial Publications of the European Communities, 24 February 2000). 18. Eurostat, News Release No. 57/2001 (Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 28 May 2001). 19. Consequences of the Introduction of Ecological Perspectives in Law, EV5V-CT92-0140, Summary Final Report (Brussels, Commission of the European Communities, 1994), www.cordis.lu. 20. Integrating Environment and Sustainable Development into Economic and Development Co-operation Policy Elements of a Comprehensive Policy, Com(2000) 264 nal (Brussels, Commission of the European Communities, 8 May 2000), www.cordis.lu. 21. P. Sorup and T. Jameson, editors, Natural Resources

and the Environment Panel Report, Series No. 05, EUR 18970 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies IPTS, June 1999), www.jrc.es. 22. S. Bringezu and H. Schtz, Material Use Indicators for the European Union 19801997, Eurostat, Theme 2 Economy and Finance (Luxembourg: Ofce for Ofcial Publication of the European Communities, 2001), http://europa.eu.int. 23. M. Ronconi, Environnement et Energie, Eurostat, Theme 8 (Luxembourg: Ofce for Ofcial Publications of the European Communities, 2002). 24. J.H. Ausubel and H. E. Sladovich, editors, Technology and Environment (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1989). 25. Waste Generated in Europe (Data 19851997), Eurostat, Theme 8 (Luxembourg: Ofce for Ofcial Publications of the European Communities, 2002).

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I. Gaballah is with the Mineral Processing and Environmental Engineering team; Laboratoire Environnement et Minralurgie, Centre National de la Recherche Scientique, cole Nationale Suprieure de Gologie, and Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine. A. Dufourg is with Lyce Henri Poincar. D. Tondeur is with Laboratoire des Sciences de Gnie Chimique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientique, cole Nationale Suprieuredes Industries Chimiques, and Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine. For more information, contact I. Gaballah, cole Nationale Suprieure de Gologie, rue du Doyen M. Roubault, BP 40, 54501 Vanduvre Cedex, France; e-mail Ibrahim.Gaballah@ensg.inpl-nancy.fr.

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