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Homework

1. What is the purpose of hypothesis testing? 2. Why is the following explanation incorrect? The probability value is the probability of obtaining a statistic as different from the parameter specified in the null hypothesis as the statistic obtained in the experiment. The probability value is computed assuming that the null hypothesis is true. 3. Why might an experimenter hypothesize something the null hypothesis! that he or she does not believe is true? ". #tate the null hypothesis for$ a. %n experiment comparing the mean effectiveness of two methods of psychotherapy. b. % correlational study on the relationship between exercise and cholesterol. c. %n investigation of whether a particular coin is a fair coin. d. % study comparing a drug with a placebo on the amount of pain relief. % one&tailed test was used.! '. %ssume the null hypothesis is that ( ) 2* and that the graph shown below is the sampling distribution of the mean +!. Would a sample value of +) 2" be significant at the .*' level?

,. % researcher develops a new theory that predicts that introverts should differ from extraverts in their performance on a psychomotor tas-. %n experiment is conducted and the difference between introverts and extraverts is not significant by conventional levels in that the probability value is *.12. What should the experimenter conclude about the theory? .. % researcher hypothesizes that the lowering in cholesterol associated with weight loss is really due to exercise. To test this/ the researcher carefully controls for exercise while comparing the cholesterol levels of a group of sub0ects who lose weight dieting with a

control group that does not diet. The difference between groups in cholesterol is not significant. 1an the researcher claim that weight loss has no effect? What statistical analysis could the researcher use to ma-e his or her case more strongly? 2. % significance test is performed and p ) .2*. Why can3t the experimenter claim that the probability that the null hypothesis is true is *.2*? 4. Why would it be wrong according to the 51lassic 6eyman&7earson5 view of hypothesis testing to write in a research report$ 5The effect was significant/ p ) .**22.5 1*. 8or a drug to be approved by the 89%/ the drug must be shown to be safe and effective. :f the drug is significantly more effective than a placebo/ then the drug is deemed effective. What do you -now about the effectiveness of a drug once it has been approved by the 89% assuming that there has not been a Type : error!? 11. What ;ree- letters are used to represent the Type : and Type :: error rates? 12. What levels are conventionally used for significance testing? 13. When is it valid to use a one&tailed test? What is the advantage of a one&tailed test? ;ive an example of a null hypothesis that would be tested by a one&tailed test. 1". :f the probability value obtained in a significance test of the null hypothesis that (1 & (2 ) * is .*33/ what do you -now about the 4'< confidence interval on (1 & (2? 1'. 9istinguish between probability value and significance level. 1,. #uppose a study were conducted on the effectiveness of a class on 5=ow to ta-e tests.5 The #%T scores of an experimental group and a control group were compared. There were 1** sub0ects in each group.! The mean score of the experimental group was '*3 and the mean score of the control group was "44. The difference between means was found to be significant/ p ) .*3.. What do you conclude about the effectiveness of the class? 1.. :s it more conservative to use a level of .*1 or a level of .*'? Would beta be higher for an alpha of .*' or for an alpha of .*1? 12. Why is 5=o$ 5+1 ) +25 not a proper null hypothesis? 14. %n experimenter expects an effect to come out in a certain direction. :s this sufficient basis for using a one&tailed test? Why or why not?

2*. #ome people claim that no independent variable is ever so wea- as to have absolutely no effect and therefore the null hypothesis is never true. 8or the sa-e of argument/ assume this is true and comment on the value of significance tests. 21. =ow do the Type : and Type :: error rates of one&tailed and two&tailed tests differ? 22. % two&tailed probability is .*3. What is the one&tailed probability if the effect were in the specified direction? What would it be if the effect were in the other direction?

Solutions:
1. =ypothesis testing is a method of inferential statistics. %n experimenter starts with a hypothesis about a population parameter called the null hypothesis. 9ata is then collected and the viability of the null hypothesis is determined in light of the data 9epending on the data/ the null hypothesis either will or will not be re0ected as a viable possibility. :f the data are very different from what would be expected under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true/ then the null hypothesis is re0ected. :f the data are not greatly at variance with what would be expected under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true/ then the null hypothesis is not re0ected. 8ailure to re0ect the null hypothesis is not the same thing as accepting the null hypothesis. The purpose of hypothesis testing is to test the viability of the null hypothesis in the light of experimental data.

2. The probability value often called the p value! is the probability of obtaining a statistic as different or more different from the parameter specified in the null hypothesis as the statistic computed from the data. The calculations are made assuming that the null hypothesis is true. This is the real definition. The affirmation above was incomplete and only re>uired the statistic to be only as different which rules out the possibility to obtain greater variations from the parameter specified in the null hypothesis/ which are more probable to happen and would lead to the re0ection of the null hypothesis.

3. ?esearchers very fre>uently put forward a null hypothesis in the hope that they can discredit it. The null hypothesis is often the reverse of what the experimenter actually believes@ it is put forward to allow the data to contradict it. =*$ (1 & (2 ) * or by =*$ A1 ) A2. The null hypothesis is typically a hypothesis of no difference as in this example where it is the hypothesis of no difference between population means. That is why the word 5null5 in 5null hypothesis5 is used && it is the hypothesis of no difference.

4. a! =*$ (1 ) (2/ where (1 is the mean of the first method of psychotherapy and (2 is the second method of psychotherapy. b! =*$ B)*/ where B is the correlation between exercise and cholesterol. c! =*$ The coin is fair. d! =*$ (1 )(2 =1$(1 C (2/ where (1 is the effect of the drug (2 is the effect of the placebo.

5. 6. % researcher develops a new theory that predicts that introverts should differ from extraverts in their performance on a psychomotor tas-. %n experiment is conducted and the difference between introverts and extraverts is not significant by conventional levels in that the probability value is *.12. What should the experimenter conclude about the theory? The experimenter should not accept the null hypothesis 0ust because it cannot re0ect it. % null hypothesis is not accepted 0ust because it is not re0ected. 9ata unsatisfactory to show convincingly that there is a difference between the way introverts and extraverts perform on a psychomotor tas- do not prove the contrary/ that is/ no difference between performances. #uch data may even suggest that the null hypothesis is false but not be strong enough to ma-e a convincing case that the null hypothesis is false. :n our example/ the probability value were *.1'/ then one would not be ready to present one3s case that the null hypothesis is false to the properly! s-eptical scientific community. +ore convincing

data would be needed to do that. =owever/ there would be no basis to conclude that the null hypothesis is true. :t may or may not be true/ there 0ust is not strong enough evidence to re0ect it. Dven in the cases when there is no evidence that the null hypothesis is false is not recommended to conclude the opposite. 8ailing to re0ect the null hypothesis is comparable to a finding of not guilty. The defendant is not declared innocent. There is 0ust not enough evidence to be convincing beyond a reasonable doubt. :n the 0udicial system/ a decision has to be made and the defendant is set free. :n science/ no decision has to be made immediately. +ore experiments are conducted. 7. Eust because the researcher couldnFt re0ect the null hypothesis it does not mean he must accept it. 8urther test must be conducted to see whether he can re0ect in fact this hypothesis. Eust because the difference between groups in cholesterol is not significant/ it does not mean there is no difference between methods of losing weight. The naive approach is to argue that there was no significant difference between the exercises&group and the control group so the experimenter should now be less confident that lowering in cholesterol associated with weight loss is due to exercises. This argument implicitly assumes that the null hypothesis should be accepted when it is not re0ected. % more straightforward and more correct approach is to consider that the experimenter expected the exercises group to have lower cholesterol level/ and they did. The experimenter3s prediction was correct. :t is 0ust that the difference was not large enough to rule out chance as an explanation. The experimenter3s belief that exercises lower cholesterol level should be strengthened. 6onetheless/ the data are not strong enough to convince a s-eptic/ so no attempt should be made to publish the results. :nstead/ the experimenter should repeat the experiment. :f again the exercise group has lower cholesterol level/ even though the difference is not significant/ would lead to a naGve interpretation of the two experiments that the experimenter tried twice to find a significant result and failed both times. The correct interpretation is that in two out of two experiments the cholesterol level is lower for people who practice exercises than for people who lose weight on a diet. The

experimenter3s case is strengthened by each experiment. +oreover/ there are methods for combining the probability values across experiments.

8. 7 value is the probability of obtaining data as extreme or more extreme than the current data assuming =* is true!. :t is not the probability of the null hypothesis itself. Thus/ if the probability value is *.2*/ this does not mean that the probability that the null hypothesis is true is .2*. :t simply means that the probability of obtaining data as different or more different from the null hypothesis as those obtained in the experiment is *.2*. 9. 10. 11. The probability of a Type : error is designated by the Greek letter alpha (a) and is called the Type : error rate@ the probability of a Type :: error the Type :: error rate! is designated by the Greek letter beta (). % Type :: error is only an error in the sense that an opportunity to re0ect the null hypothesis correctly was lost. :t is not an error in the sense that an incorrect conclusion was drawn since no conclusion is drawn when the null hypothesis is not re0ected. % Type : error/ on the other hand/ is an error in every sense of the word. % conclusion is drawn that the null hypothesis is false when/ in fact/ it is true. Therefore/ Type : errors are generally considered more serious than Type :: errors. The probability of a Type : error H! is called the significance level and is set by the experimenter. There is a tradeoff between Type : and Type :: errors. The more an experimenter protects himself or herself against Type : errors by choosing a low level/ the greater the chance of a Type :: error. ?e>uiring very strong evidence to re0ect the null hypothesis ma-es it very unli-ely that a true null hypothesis will be re0ected. =owever/ it increases the chance that a false null hypothesis will not be re0ected/ thus lowering power.

#tatistical 9ecision

True #tate of the 6ull =ypothesis =* True =* 8alse

?e0ect =* 9o not ?e0ect =*

Type : error 1orrect

1orrect Type :: error

12. :n hypothesis testing/ the significance level is the criterion used for re0ecting the null hypothesis. The significance level is used in hypothesis testing as follows$ 8irst/ the difference between the results of the experiment and the null hypothesis is determined. Then/ assuming the null hypothesis is true/ the probability of a difference that large or larger is computed. 8inally/ this probability is compared to the significance level. :f the probability is less than or e>ual to the significance level/ then the null hypothesis is re0ected and the outcome is said to be statistically significant. Traditionally/ experimenters have used either the *.*' level sometimes called the '< level! or the *.*1 level 1< level!/ although the choice of levels is largely sub0ective. The lower the significance level/ the more the data must diverge from the null hypothesis to be significant. Therefore/ the *.*1 level is more conservative than the *.*' level. The ;reeletter alpha H! is sometimes used to indicate the significance level. 13. When only one direction is of concern to an experimenter/ then a one&tailed test can be performed. % one&tailed test is valid to use when it is expected the outcome to be in a certain direction. The advantage of using a one&tailed test is that it is easier to re0ect the null hypothesis with a one&tailed than with a two&tailed test as long as the effect is in the specified direction. Therefore/ one&tailed tests have lower Type :: error rates and more power than do two&tailed tests because probability values for one&tailed tests are one half the values for two&tailed tests as long as the effect is in the specified direction. 8or example/ if an experimenter were only concerned with whether or not A1 & A2 is greater than zero/ then the one&tailed test would involve calculating the probability of obtaining a statistic as great as or greater than the one obtained in the experiment. 14.

15. :n hypothesis testing/ the probability value sometimes called the p value! is the probability of obtaining a statistic as different from or more different from the parameter specified in the null hypothesis as the statistic obtained in the experiment. The probability value is computed assuming the null hypothesis is true. :f the probability value is below the significance level then the null hypothesis is re0ected. %nother interpretation of the significance level/ based in decision theory/ is that H corresponds to the value for which one chooses to re0ect or accept the null hypothesis =*. The probability of a Type : error to re0ect =* when it is in fact true! is e>ual to the significance level H/ and the probability of re0ecting the null hypothesis when it is in fact false a correct decision! is e>ual to 1 & H. To minimize the probability of Type : error/ the significance level is generally chosen to be small. 16. The null hypothesis is that =o$ A1 ) A2 the performance of both groups is not depending on that particular class!. #ince p)*.*3.I*.*' significance level!/ we re0ect =o. %lso we are 4'< confident that the class is effective. 17. Traditionally/ experimenters have used either the *.*' level sometimes called the '< level! or the *.*1 level 1< level!/ although the choice of levels is largely sub0ective. The lower the significance level/ the more the data must diverge from the null hypothesis to be significant. Therefore/ the *.*1 level is more conservative than the *.*' since it re>uires stronger evidence to re0ect the null hypothesis at the *.*1 level then at the *.*' level 18. J=o$ 5+1 ) +25 is not a proper null hypothesis because it refers to the sample and not to the whole population. +1 and +2 are statistics and when ma-ing the statement for the null hypothesis we should ta-e into consideration the parameters. % proper =o would be 5=o$ (1 )(25.

19. :f the experimenter is expecting the outcome of the test to be in a certain direction/ then he may be inclined use a one&tailed test. . Kne&tailed tests are sometimes used when the experimenter predicts the direction of the effect in advance. =owever/ this use of one&

tailed tests is >uestionable because the experimenter can only re0ect the null hypothesis if the effect is in the predicted direction. :f the effect is in the other direction/ then the null hypothesis cannot be re0ected no matter how strong the effect is. % s-eptic might >uestion whether the experimenter would really fail to re0ect the null hypothesis if the effect were strong enough in the wrong direction. 8re>uently the most interesting aspect of an effect is that it runs counter to expectations. Therefore/ an experimenter who committed himself or herself to ignoring effects in one direction may be forced to choose between ignoring a potentially important finding and using the techni>ues of statistical inference dishonestly. Kne&tailed tests are not used fre>uently. Lnless otherwise indicated/ a test should be assumed to be two&tailed. 20. 21. The difference between one&tailed test and a two&tailed test is that one&tailed tests have lower Type :: error rates and more power than two&tailed tests have. :t is easier to re0ect the null hypothesis with a one&tailed than with a two&tailed test as long as the effect is in the specified direction because probability values for one&tailed tests are one half the values for two&tailed tests/ as long as the effect is in the specified direction. Kn the other hand/ one&tailed and two&tailed tests have the same Type : error rate. 22. 7robability values for one&tailed tests are one half the values for two&tailed tests as long as the effect is in the specified direction. :f the two&tailed probability is *.*3/ then the one&tailed probability is only *.*3M2/ which is *.*1'/ with the condition that the effect is in the specified direction. :n the case of a one&tailed test/ the null hypothesis can be re0ected only if the effect is in the predicted direction. =owever/ if the effect is in the other direction/ then the null hypothesis cannot be re0ected no matter how strong the effect is. The probability would be *.42' if the effect would be in the other direction/ but the null hypothesis cannot be re0ected/ no matter how strong this effect is.

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