Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Because exponential growth of CO2 concentration causes only linear raise in temperature, people sometimes think that subsequent emissions will result in ever slower temperature increases. Well, the most persistent myths are based on technically true statements - thats true also in this case. It is true, that for each doubling of CO2 concentration, temperature increases by a constant value. However, at the current level of CO2 content in the atmosphere a good approximate relation is that for each 500 GtC (1833 bn tons of CO2) we can expect equilibrium temperature increase by approximately 1C. Moreover, because of the continuing exponential growth of CO2 emissions the temperature increase will also accelerate.
Figure 1: Increase of the mean Earths surface temperature as a function of the cumulative global CO2 emissions. Mean values calculated from multiple simulations using several carbon cycle models are shown until year 2100 for each RCP (color lines). Circles mark decadal means and for clarity selected decadal means were labeled with appropriate color matching text (e.g., 2050 indicates the decade 2040-2049). Black line denotes model results over the historical period (1860-2010). Shaded areas illustrate range of model results for various RCP scenarios. Black narrow line and grey shaded area show, respectively, the mean and the range of simulation results using many models CMIP5 assuming CO2 concentration growth of 1% per year. For a given value of cumulative CO2 emissions, simulations assuming 1% yearly concentration growth show smaller temperature increase than simulations corresponding to RCP, which include other forcings besides CO2. Temperature change is relative to the base period 1861-1881. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. Source: 5th IPCC report. The graph shows that the temperature increases almost linearly with the growth of cumulative emissions, and in case of business as usual scenario (red line RCP8.5) the temperature increase actually accelerates from decade to decade (as seen from the growing distance between circles marking subsequent decades). How can this observation be consistent with the logarithmic dependence between temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 concentration? Lets summarize several basic facts, which we will then use to reproduce Figure 1: Not all CO2 emissions are accumulating in the atmosphere only about 45% of our emissions end up in the atmosphere. For each ppm increase of CO2 concentration the atmosphere must absorb 2.12 GtC. The relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and the corresponding increase in radiative forcing is given (3rd Report IPCC TAR, table 6.2) by the logarithmic formula: RF = 5.35ln (C/C0), where RF denotes radiative forcing in W/m2, C is CO2 concentration in parts per million (ppm), C0 is a reference concentration (usually
the latter is 280 ppm the concentration before the industrial revolution). Doubling the CO2 concentration (which is equivalent to 3.7 W/m2 increase in radiative forcing) causes temperature increase of 3C. Table 1 contains results of simple calculations based on observations listed above. For example, if we assume that from the beginning of the industrial era the cumulative emissions were 500 GtC (equivalent to 1833 bn tons CO2), then the atmosphere absorbed 45% of the emitted CO2, or 225 GtC. As a result atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased by 225/2.12=106 ppm, reaching level of 386 ppm, which, in turn, increases the radiative forcing by 5.35ln (386/280) = 1.72 [W/m2]. The expected (equilibrium) temperature rise will therefore be 31.72/3.7=1.39 [C]. Equilibrium temp. anomaly [C] 0.00 1.39 2.44 3.29 3.99 4.60
CO2 Left in the atmosphere concentration [GtC] [ppm] 0 225 450 675 900 1125 280 386 492 598 705 811
Table 1. Relationship between cumulative emissions and temperature anomaly. NOTE: our model (and Figure 1) considers only carbon dioxide emissions and does not include the effects of other greenhouse gases or the cooling effect of sulfuric aerosols (these two contributions are approximately cancelling each other). The accuracy of our model is quite good (blue line in Figure 2).
Figure 2. Results of our simple model calculations (light blue line) were added to data from Figure 1. MS Excel is available here. Of course, such a model is very simplified. It assumes a constant airborne fraction (45%) of CO2 staying in the atmosphere. If emissions grew very fast, land and oceans sinks would be overwhelmed and would not keep pace absorbing our emissions, effectively causing larger portion of CO2 remaining in the atmosphere. According to Jones et. al., 2013, airborne fraction in RCP8.5 scenario for years 2006-2100 will go up to 69% (though uncertainity is quite large). Rising airborne fraction for huge emissions will straighten the curve. We also used the equilibrium temperature, while the real one will be somewhat smaller due to thermal inertia of the climate system. If we include this in our model, assuming airborne fraction rising linearly from 45% (for 500 GtC of cumulative emissions) to 66% (for 2000 GtC) and display temperature anomaly as 80% of equilibrium temperature, we will get this:
Figure 3. Results of our simple model calculations (light blue line) with variable airborne fraction and observed temperature as 80% of equilibrium temperature were added to data from Figure 1. MS Excel is available here. We have reasonably well reproduced approximately linear relationship between cumulative emissions and the temperature anomaly, equivalent to about 1C increase for each 500 GtC of emissions. Exactly how quickly the temperature will rise will depend on the actual emissions rate.
Figure 4. Growth of carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels during the period 17512012 (black line); source: CDIAC. Blue line represents exponential function growing at a rate of 2.8% per year (i.e. doubling every 25 years). Such rate of growth means doubling the amount of CO2 emissions every 25 years. After 50, 75 and 100 years emissions become respectively 4 times, 8 times and 16 times larger. During the last 25 years we have emitted as much carbon dioxide from fossil fuels burning as from the beginning of the industrial revolution to the 1980s. More precisely, during 27 years between 1986 and 2012 we have emitted more CO2 than from 1751 to 1985 (CDIAC). Continuation of this trend would mean that between year 2010 and 2050 emissions would triple to a level of 100 bn tons of CO2 per year. If the rate of emissions growth continues unchanged, in each subsequent decade we will dispose into the atmosphere ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide, moving us ever faster to the right and upwards on the graph in Figure 1. If we insist on burning everything we can, we will fulfill the RCP8.5 emissions scenario (or more).
Figure 5. CO2 emissions according to two scenarios burning all available fossil fuels (RCP 8.5) and one aiming at limiting temperature anomaly to below 2C (RSP3-PD). In the extremely optimistic scenario RCP3-PD emissions are quickly reduced and in the middle of the XXI century fall below zero, which would mean enormous societal effort (during the lifetime of our children) of sequestration and removal from the carbon cycle of the CO2 emitted by our generation. Meinshausen et.al., 2011. Emissions level as large as in the RCP8.5 scenario will introduce enough carbon into the carbon cycle to increase the Earths temperature by year 2100 by more than 4C from the preindustrial level (we can readily conclude this from Figure 1). Of course the temperature rise will not stop on 31 December 2100. If we assume that RCP8.5 emissions scenario continues into the next century, both axes of Figure 1 would have to be doubled in length. Simulations for this scenario (Meinshausen et.al., 2011) predict temperature anomaly by year 2200 of almost 8C.
The Skeptical Science w ebsite by Skeptical Science is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.