Discovering the Future SERIES Summary

Joel Barger has presented the concept of paradigm, its effects in human perception and states that paradigm taking control over human. The Paradigm It is about the patterns of behavior and the rules and regulations we used to construct those patterns. Those patterns are used to establish boundaries in our lives, our jobs and our organizations, and then to direct us on how to solve problems that lies in those boundaries. Changing a paradigm means fundamentally altering the way things redone. Those changes erased previous pattern of success Its sometimes called as the act of faith There are 2 types of people related to paradigm that is presented in the movie. Paradigm Shifter: The group of people who create changes in rules and regulations in the old boundaries of knowledge that cause changes in patterns of living to others Paradigm Pioneer: Pioneer, alike in the previous Centuries, are: the group of people who are willing to accept high risk to open the new way. ones, who go out first and made it safe for others. Ones, who recognize the new and the better before anybody does. high-risk takers, while the Settlers, who take lower risks, will follow once there are enough numbers and statistics to prove that its safe to follow.

It is about the chronological pioneering, not the geographical one. Characteristics of Paradigm Pioneer Intuition: knew that something is the right idea without data to prove it (Intuition)

Intuition is the ability to make good decisions with incomplete information (the act of faith)

Courage: to act in what you believe to be true (Courage is an enabling characteristic that allows you to actualize your intuition) Commitment of time: willing to take time and perseverance to prove that its right

The graphical presentation stages of changes in Paradigm, the point where Paradigm Shifter and Paradigm Pioneers entering into those changes, and altered slop of curve when combining the Kaizen Concept with Paradigm Pioneering

Paradigm Shifter has solved some problems by breaking the old rules, and just created the new rules at the beginning, which is still very rough. Phase A: The development has begun slowly at first because most problems cannot be solved rapidly until people have enough understanding of the new rules. Phase B: Then, when people gain master over the paradigm, improvement becomes faster and faster and most of problems have been discovered awaiting to be solved. It becomes slower and slower as most difficult problems of the paradigm are remaining at the very last stage.

Phase C:

As presented in the graph, Paradigm Pioneer has shown up around the middle to late A phase to early B phase, where most of data and information required to prove the new rules are correct are not available enough yet. Pioneer always uses the map, but because they are the first, their maps are full of unknowns. Settlers wait for the maps loaded with details

In the 21st Century: The situation will reverse in the way that Paradigm Pioneer will take the lower risks than the settler, which will become the high-risk taker. Risks of not stay close to the leading edge are growing everyday, organization who know how to pioneer are gaining huge leverage over those who are not.

Who are the best?

Nation, which has the most Paradigm Shifters, and with the highest rate of creating new paradigms in the last 50 years is the USA They dont pioneer what they create as they need statistics to make decision, but there is no such information until the pioneers generate the numbers.

Nation, which is the best in paradigm pioneering in the world, is Japan. They dont start off with somebody elses finished idea, they enter early in the paradigm curve, with hard work, and long hours, and great cleverness, and deep commitment to the long term they drive the new paradigm from the concept into practice

Continuous improvement process Kaizen

It is the concept that everyday finding some ways to improve every aspect of products or services, and the processes by which they are used to deliver them.

It has changed the slope of the paradigm curve to be steeper, thus, the settler may be very hard to catch up with.

Success Formula as suggested by Joel Barger

Paradigm Pioneering + Continuous Improvement = Never give the settler an even break It is very difficult to catch Paradigm Pioneer who practices Total Quality and continuous improvement

How to become a Paradigm Pioneer

1. Get outside those borders, and find what the paradigm shifters has created 2. Understand the need to break the old rules of past success in order to achieve future successes, and the new rules will probably be found by some outsiders 3. Read beyond familiar boundaries, read in the area that is new and unfamiliar to find out if there are some ideas that can help improve current practices 4. Be ready for failure, but dont let that failure stop pioneering behavior 5. Listen to everybody around

Discovering the Future (Second Edition)

New ideas always disrupts the status quo, and created uncertainty People, who think that the future is simply an extension to the past, resisted new ideas. By nature, people have always resisted changes

Definition of Paradigms
Paradigms are sets of rules and regulations that do 2 things: They establish boundaries, in the sense that pattern gives the edges or borders They provide rules for success, how to be successful by solving problems within these boundaries

Paradigms dramatically affect our judgment and our decision making by influencing our perceptions. In order to make a good judgment about future to successfully anticipate the future, we must recognize our present paradigms and be ready to go beyond them. THOMAS COONES DISCOVERY OF PARADIGM In his book named as The structure of scientific revolution, he has explored how scientists change their paradigm, and that discovery can: Help explain why people so often fail to anticipate significant new development Help everybody deals with changes more effectively

What were discovered are: Positive Point: Paradigm acts as filters that screen data coming into the scientists mind. Data that agrees with the scientists paradigm will help brighten scientists understanding with great clarity Negative Point: If such new data didnt match expectation created by those scientists paradigms, scientists will have difficulties perceiving them.

Paradigm Effect
This concept is true for anyone who has strongly held their rules and regulations in their lives, and doesnt. As a result what may be obvious for the person with one paradigm, maybe totally inperceptable for others with the different paradigm It blinds people from new opportunities We anticipate the future by looking for it through our old paradigms The paradigm keeps us from seeing what was really happening. People have perceived their surroundings and set boundaries for them in their perception, anything they think of will occur within such boundaries. Once people have strong perception of what is supposed to be, they will frame themselves and their ideas within such boundaries. The result is, people can hardly generate new ideas, as their potential will be limited to the boundaries of perception they have unintentionally invented.

Paradigm Paralysis
The state that people stick to one paradigm and ignore everything running against it. It is a kind of disorder

Sometimes, their paradigm can become the only way to do something When you confront with alternative ideas, you rejected them out of hand If people are not careful, their successful past will block their visions to the future, openness to new ideas, and willingness to explore different ways of doing things

Going-back-to-zero rules
When paradigm shifts everyone goes back to zero, your past success guarantees nothing.

Key Observations about Paradigms

1) 2) Paradigms are common; we have found them in almost all aspects of our lives. Paradigms are useful, They show us whats important and whats not. They help us find important problems and then they go on to give us rules for helping to solve those problems They focus our attention Paradigm can become the only way to do something: Paradigm Paralysis Paradigm flexibility allows people to perceive new ideas as opportunities Paradigm paralysis will cause people perceive those new ideas as threats. The people who create new paradigms are usually outsiders The paradigm pioneer must be very courageous, and trust in their judgment Evidences provided by the new paradigm doesnt prove that they should be doing that People can choose if they will change the rules and regulations they used to strongly hold

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Paradigm Shift Question

What today its impossible to do in your business, but if it could be done, would fundamentally change what you are doing? We should ask this question on regular basis, and on everywhere in their organizations