Professional Documents
Culture Documents
16-Apr-01
Copyright c 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. No part of this publication may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any meams -electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or optherwise -- without the premission of Harvard Business School.
$67.6
16
NA
7
94.5
1.8
0.1
0.5
75
$151.3
$278.2
30.3
52.7
NA
NA
10.1
26.5
241.9
349.1
1.6
5
0
0
100
100
104.2
169.9
Exhibit 5. Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Industry Historical Performance and Projections, 1991-2003E
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
33.1
38.4
16.0%
51.8
34.9%
69
33.2%
90
30.4%
106.8
18.7%
129.3
21.0%
$26,200
7.8%
$21,730
-17.1%
$22,966
5.7%
$22,991
0.1%
$27,596
20.0%
$27,340
-0.9%
Source: Computer Industry Abstracts (various issues) and Disk Drive Quarterly Report (June 1999) by Salomon Smith Barney
1998
1999 2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
143.6
11.1%
165.9
15.5%
187.8
13.2%
212.5
13.1%
238.1
12.1%
268.2
12.6%
$25,483
-6.8%
$25,273
-0.8%
$26,640
5.4%
$28,409
6.6%
$30,450
7.2%
$32,699
7.4%
Exhibit 6. Historical Operating Performance and Capitalization Ratios for Seagate Technology and U.S. Disk Drive Ind
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
9.79
40.45
313.2%
110.41
173.0%
343.9
211.5%
214.65
-37.6%
459.84
114.2%
958.07
108.3%
EBITDA
% Sales
0.87
8.9%
10.7
26.5%
18.82
17.0%
63.51
18.5%
0.07
0.0%
58.34
12.7%
208.24
21.7%
EBIT
% Sales
0.65
6.6%
9.89
24.4%
16.16
14.6%
55.72
16.2%
-12.01
-5.6%
39.18
8.5%
180.63
18.9%
9.47
0.22
2.45
43.47
0.81
5.04
157.25
2.65
38.83
214.72
7.8
42.66
275.23
12.08
31.22
305.08
19.17
38.68
814.12
27.6
78.4
19%
10.12
7.56
1%
0%
-27%
-6%
57.84
53.46
5%
1%
-10%
-2%
47.05
40.4
5%
2%
-2%
-1%
73.51
64.49
13%
9%
11%
7%
0.04
-6.84
5%
2%
-10%
-5%
20.26
13.61
37%
14%
-11%
-4%
41.01
35.57
8.9%
5.4%
19%
7%
9%
0%
3.31
2.19
6.2%
3.2%
9%
4%
-5%
-2%
3.46
1.42
7.3%
3.4%
5%
1%
-12%
-6%
4.12
2.34
0.7%
-3.5%
12%
5%
-6%
-2%
-1.58
-3.37
-4.4%
-10.3%
19%
7%
-5%
-3%
-3.19
-7.57
8.6%
5.3%
13%
5%
-7%
-4%
6.2
2.25
7.8%
4.5%
16%
7%
-11%
-4%
6.37
1.94
Seagate
Sales
% Growth
Assets
Depreciation & Amortization
CAPX
Debt/Book Assets
Debt/Mkt. Assets
(Debt-Cash)/Book Assets
(Debt-Cash)/Market Assets
EBITDA Interest Coverage
EBIT Interest Coverage
NA
18%
NA
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1,265.97
32.1%
1,371.57
8.3%
2,413.18
75.9%
2,676.98
10.9%
2,875.27
7.4%
3,043.60
5.9%
3,500.10
15.0%
4,539.57
29.7%
8,588.35
89.2%
150.77
11.9%
90.97
6.6%
297.24
12.3%
255.57
9.5%
309.04
10.7%
439.05
14.4%
449.17
12.8%
629.85
13.9%
1,004.53
11.7%
100.4
7.9%
12.96
0.9%
179.32
7.4%
117.31
4.4%
139.91
4.9%
284.03
9.3%
310.96
8.9%
442.98
9.8%
627.38
7.3%
1,093.95
50.37
284.41
1,076.77
78.02
78.09
1,851.46
117.91
102.38
1,880.06
138.26
90.87
1,816.60
169.13
90.66
2,031.19
155.02
173.57
2,877.53
138.21
197.68
3,361.26
186.86
353.43
5,239.64
377.15
906.94
28%
20%
20%
14%
6.88
4.58
29%
24%
11%
9%
3.77
0.54
31%
28%
17%
15%
6.1
3.68
23%
27%
9%
11%
6.01
2.76
18%
16%
-10%
-9%
9.09
4.11
14%
14%
-17%
-17%
18.67
12.08
19%
18%
-27%
-26%
17.05
11.81
16%
12%
-21%
-15%
19.11
13.44
15%
11%
-7%
-5%
17.99
11.24
6.2%
2.3%
12%
8%
0%
-3%
8.15
4.58
7.3%
5.3%
13%
8%
-5%
-2%
5.74
2.71
9.6%
5.9%
10%
9%
-7%
-4%
6.03
3.3
8.6%
4.3%
13%
8%
2%
-1%
4.06
1.55
8.9%
5.9%
16%
16%
-1%
-3%
9
4.31
3.9%
-0.3%
19%
13%
-9%
-3%
4.38
-0.05
2.5%
-2.4%
12%
7%
-4%
-2%
5.58
0.37
4.7%
1.9%
10%
3%
-8%
-3%
3.59
1.84
7.0%
3.9%
13%
4%
-6%
-5%
7.06
5.04
1997
1998
1999
8,940.02
4.1%
6,819.00
-23.7%
6,802.00
-0.2%
1,521.03
17.0%
451
6.6%
1011
14.9%
1,019.83
11.4%
-138
-2.0%
398
5.9%
6,722.88
501.20
890.46
5,645.00
589.00
709.00
7,072.00
613.00
603.00
10%
6%
-24%
-13%
43.66
29.27
12%
8%
-20%
-13%
8.84
-2.71
10%
8%
-13%
-10%
20.25
8.29
9.3%
7.5%
6%
1%
-21%
-8%
13
8.52
5.6%
-1.4%
14%
7%
-9%
-5%
4.2
-2.04
6.1%
1.1%
9%
4%
-23%
-5%
-0.09
-2.91
Exhibit 7. Summary Financial Data on Publicly Traded Hard Disk Drive Manufacturers
Seagate Technology
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Quantum HDDa
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
$8,940
6,918
2,022
1,521
501
1,020
35
658
890
$6,819
5,830
989
451
589
-138
51
-530
709
$6,802
5,250
1,552
1,011
613
398
48
1,176
603
$4,591
4,093
498
146
109
37
20
41
164
$4,615
4,242
373
-6
68
-74
11
-53
119
$3,599
3,308
291
-61
71
-133
9
-153
82
$2,284
1,041
808
1,787
6,723
863
1
702
3,476
2,717
$1,827
799
508
1,669
5,645
577
1
704
2,937
2,241
$1,623
872
451
1,687
7,072
714
1
703
3,563
1,773
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
$325
586
212
228
1,646
401
0
109
906
$524
392
148
199
1,470
342
0
115
791
NA
739
709
Western Digital
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Maxtor
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
$4,178
3,464
714
365
63
302
0
268
156
$3,542
3,187
355
-41
107
-148
12
-290
199
$2,767
2,562
205
-188
131
-319
33
-493
107
$799
842
-43
-191
47
-238
18
-256
54
$1,424
1,287
137
-32
66
-97
37
-110
82
$2,409
2,034
375
134
74
60
29
31
95
$208
546
224
248
1,307
418
0
0
620
364
$460
369
187
347
1,443
330
0
519
318
464
$226
273
144
238
1,022
336
10
534
-154
72
$31
89
81
92
315
110
204
229
-327
93
$33
248
155
99
555
207
245
224
-221
440
$258
318
153
108
863
428
5
145
169
170
$2,716
$1,043
$589
0.6
236
B2
5.1875
129.1
NA
NA
$1,320
1
114
B1
11.625
113.2
n, containing just the hard disk drive operations. As a result, there is no information on historical
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
$6,619
$7,417
$8,564
$9,504
$10,416
$11,359
$12,350
1,264
1,409
1,696
2,043
2,312
2,624
3,026
EBITA
141
189
316
449
499
614
724
Depreciation
625
626
642
666
708
726
729
Capital Expenditures
627
690
720
795
700
725
750
$6,619
141
$8,185
365
$10,146
689
$11,283
783
$12,626
867
$13,961
1,000
$15,404
1,167
$6,619
141
$7,393
189
$7,797
322
$8,310
363
$8,801
378
$9,269
403
$9,759
407
Source: Casewriters estimates based on revenues and EBITA projections contained in SEC filings and casewriter estimates.
The downside case is identical to the buyer case contained in the SEC filings.