Renewable Power generation in

India: Establishing Feasible Targets

Rangan Banerjee
Dept of Energy Science and Engineering
Seminar at IIASA, Laxenburg J une 4, 2008
India- Primary Commercial Energy
2003-4
Total comm
14000 PJ
Biomass 6500
PJ (33%)
Total
20500 PJ
19700 PJ (-non
energy)
Hydro
2.4%
Coal
51.7%
Oil (D)
9.8%
Oil Import
24.9%
Nat gas
9.1%
Wind
0.2%
Nuclear
1.8%
India - Fossil Fuel reserves
Fuel Reserves Prodn
2003-4
R/P
ratio
Coal +L i gnite
(M i l l i on Tonnes)
34000 414 ~83 (P)
140 P+I
Oil
(M i l l i on Tonnes)
760 33
(117)
23 (7)
N.Gas
Bi l l i on m3
920 32 29
Uranium
Tonnes
61000 PHWR ~50
10GW

Data Source Plg CommIEPC, 2006
NET POWER TO ULTIMATE CONSUMERS
386000 MU (69 %)
58900
MU
T & D LOSS
175500 MU
31 %
ENERGY AVAILABLE 562000 MU
AUX.CON.
41600 MU
(7 %)
STEAM
424000 MU
( 71 %)
HYDRO
84600 MU
(14 %)
GAS
61500 MU
(10 %)
NUCLEAR
17000 MU
(3 %)
RENEWABLES
7100 MU
(1 %)
GROSS GENERATION 594000 MU
Import ( other
countries)
1700 MU
AUX.CON.
5400 MU
(8 %)
7100
MU
8800 MU
Captive Generation
71400 MU
RESIDENTIAL
95700 MU
(21 %)
COMMERCIAL
31400 MU
(7 %)
TRACTION
9500 MU
(2 %)
WATER WORKS ,
PUMPING & LIGHTING
14600 MU
( 3 %)
AGRICULTURAL
88600 MU
( 20 %)
OTHERS
8900 MU
(2 %)
INDUSTRIAL
POWER (HV + LV)
196500 MU
(44 %)
GROSS ENERGY CONSUMPTION 445000 MU
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

A
d
d
i
t
i
o
n

(
M
W
)
Annual Capacity Additions
India - Electricity Sales
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
i
t
y

S
a
l
e
s

(
G
W
h
)
S
Need for Alternatives
Fossil fuel reserves limited
India - 17% of World population, 4% of
primary energy
Present pattern predominantly fossil
based (87% comm, 64% total)
52% of households unelectrified
Linkage between energy services and
quality of life


Renewable Energy Options





Wind
Solar
Small
Hydro
Biomass
Tidal
Energy
Wave Energy
Ocean Thermal
Energy
Solar Thermal

Solar
Photovoltaic

Geothermal*
Power Generation Options
Power Generation
Centralised
Grid Connected
Cogeneration/ Trigeneration
Decentralised
Distributed Generation
Isolated
Demand Side Management
(Solar Water Heater,
Passive Solar)
Geothermal/ OTEC/ Tidal/ Wave
World Cost Estimates
Geothermal COMMERCIAL 8240 MW 4c/kWh
$2000/kW
No Indian experience
50 MW plant J & K planned
Tidal PROTOTYPE 240 MW
FRANCE
LF 20%
No Indian experience (3.6MW
planned Sunderbans)
OTEC PROTOTYPE 50 kW
210 kW
NELHA
India 1MW gross plant
attempted
Wave
Energy
PROTOTYPE < 1MW
Grid Connected
India 150kW plant
Thiruvananthpuram
Map of India showing the geothermal provinces
OTEC plant schematic
Mooring Arrangement
Wave Energy
Source: Sukhatme
Wind Power
5000 MW installed
Single machine upto 2.1
MW
Average capacity factor
14%
Capital cost Rs 4-
5crores/MW, Rs 2-3/kWh
(cost effective if site CF
>20%)
India 45000 /13000 MW
potential estimated
32%/ year (5 year
growth rate)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
A
n
n
u
a
l
L
o
a
d
F
a
c
t
o
r
(
%
)
Satara, Maharashtra
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
S
e
p
O
c
t
N
o
v
D
e
c
Month of year
A
c
t
u
a
l

M
o
n
t
h
l
y

G
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
*
1
0
0
0
k
W
h
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

W
i
n
d

S
p
e
e
d

(
m
/
s
)
Monthly Generation
Wind Speed
Small Hydro Power
Classification - Capacity
-Micro less than 100 kW
Mini 100 kW - 3 MW
Small 3 MW - 15 MW
Micro and Mini - usually
isolated,
Small grid connected
Heads as low as 3 m viable
Capital Cost Rs 5-6crores/MW ,
Rs 1.50-2.50/kWh
1846 MW (7%/year)
200 kW Chizami village,
Nagaland
Aleo (3MW) Himachal Pradesh
Cost of Generation for Small
Hydro Power Plants
Run of River Dam Canal
Life 40 years 40 years 40 years
Capacity of plant considered (kW) 3000 2000 1000
Capital Cost (lakhs) 1429.38 740.87 593.65
Average Capital cost (lakhs/kW) 0.60 0.15 0.74
Annual O&M in lakhs 42.88 22.23 17.81
Generation cost(Rs./kWh)
Load factor = 40 %
1.80 1.40 2.24
Values assumed for calculation of cost of generation
Life of system = 40 years
Discount Rate = 10%
Maintenance = 3% of capital cost
Cost of Electricity
Generation(Small Hydro)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Capacity Utilisation Factor
U
n
i
t

C
o
s
t

o
f

E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
i
t
y

G
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
R
s
.
/
k
W
h
Run of River
Run of River (with capital subsidy)
Dam
Dam (with capital subsidy)
Canal
Canal (with capital subsidy)
BI OMASS
THERMOCHEMI CAL
BI OCHEMI CAL
COMBUSTI ON GASI FI CATI ON PYROLYSI S
RANKI NE
CYCLE
PRODUCER GAS
ATMOSPHERI C PRESSURI SED
FERMENTATION DIGESTION
BI OGAS ETHANOL
Duel Fuel
SIPGE
Gas Turbines
BIOMASS CONVERSION ROUTES
Biomass Power
Higher Capacity factors
than other renewables
Fuelwood, agricultural
residues, animal waste
Atmospheric gasification
with dual fuel engine -
500 kW gasifier - largest
installation
Combustion 5-7.5 MW
Rs 2.50-4/kWh
Kaganti Power Ltd. Raichur Distt. A.P. 7.5 MW
100 kWe Pfutseromi village, Nagaland
Biogas
45-70% CH
4
rest CO
2
Calorific value 16-25MJ /m
3
Digestor- well containing animal waste
slurry
Dome - floats on slurry- acts as gas
holder
Spent Slurry -sludge- fertiliser
Anaerobic Digestion- bacterial action
Family size plants 2m
3
/day
Community Size plants 12- 150 m
3
/day
Rs 12-14000 for a 2m3 unit
Cooking, Electricity, running engine
Pura, Karnataka
Bagasse Cogeneration
Incremental Capital Cost
(Rs/kW)
30000
Life 20 years
Boiler Efficiency 70%
Bagasse NCV = 3400 kcal/kg (dry basis), Price Rs 1.50/kg
Discount rate = 10%, O&M cost = Rs 0.5/kWh
2500 tcd plant 9.5 MW export, 0.93 kg extra/ kWh
Load factor 0.4 0.5 0.6
Rs/kWh 2.60 2.40 2.27
0.5T / hr
F eed w ater







P r o c e s s



P r o c e s s
2 a t a
~
S T E A M
T U R B I N E
2 . 5 M W
6 a t a
B A G A S S E
5 8 T / h r 2 2 a t a
3 3 0
o
C
4 . 5 T / h r
2 7 T / h r
2 6 T / h r
S c h e m a t i c o f t y p i c a l 2 5 0 0 t c d S u g a r f a c t o r y
F l a s h e d
C o n d e n s a t e
P R D S
P R D S
M I L L I N G

0 . 5 T / h r
F E E D
W A T E R

B O I L E R
F e e d w a t e r
C
o
n
d
e
n
s
e
r

2 a t a
P R O C E S S





7 5 T P H , 6 5
a t a , 4 8 0
O
C





4 . 5 T P H
~
6 a t a
B A G A S S E
(A l t e r n a t e f u e l )
2 a t a
B F P
1 3 M W
B O I L E R
1 . 0 M W
M i l l
d r i v e s
9 . 5 M W
P o w e r e x p o r t
2 . 5 M W
C a p t i v e
l o a d
P R O C E S S
P R O P O S E D P L A N T C O N F I G U R A T I O N : O P T I O N 2
S T E A M
T U R B I N E
C O N D E N S E R
PV
Thermal
Low Temp.
<100
o
C
High
Temp.
>400
o
C
Medium Temp. Up
to 400
o
C Line
Focusing Parabolic
Solar Pond Solar Chimney Solar Flat Plate
Collectors
Parabolic Dish
Material
Single Crystal Silicon
Production Process
Central Tower
Amorphous Silicon
Wafer
CdTe/ GAAs
Polycrystalline
Silicon
Thin Film
Solar Power
Technology Options for Solar power
Comparison of Solar Thermal
Power Generation Technologies
Technology
Efficiency Indian
Experience
Status Capital Cost
(Rs/kW)
Electricity
(Rs/kWh)
Solar Flat
Plate Collectors
2% 10 kW exptl
unit at IITM
D Rs. 300.000 _
Solar Chimney 1 % No experience
50 kW Spain
D Rs. 200,000
($4600/kW)
_
Solar Pond 1-2% Experience for
hot water Bhuj
(Israel power
5MW)
D
Line focussing
Parabolic
Peak 20%
Average 11-
14%
50 kW system
in SEC Planned
35MW solar in
140 MW ISCC
at Mathania
C Rs. 140,000
($3000/kW)
~390 MW of
operating
plants
15 c/kWh
Rs. 6/kWh
Paraboloid Dish 29% peak 12-
18%
Demo unit 10
kW Vellore
D Rs. 150,000
Central Tower 23% peak 7-
14%
No experience D ~Rs. 200,000
($4700/kW)


















b- bar

75.5 MW
103 b,371
o
C
Steam
turbine

~
WHRB


Heat exchanger
Solar Heat
Exchanger
Solar Radiation
Condenser
~
Air
Fuel
GTG-2 sets of35.2
MW
Aux. Firing
Feed water
Steam, 103 b,500
o
C
Steam, 103 b,500
o
C
Flue gas from GT
BFP
To WHRB
Heat Transfer
oil, 291
o
C
391
o
C
Gas Turbine sets
Heat exchanger
GTG 2sets of 35 MW each
Proposed
ISCC
Solar PV
India -2740 kW Grid
connected systems
(25-239 kW)
Array efficiency in
field 12-15%
Cost Rs 26cr/MW
Rs 15-20 /kWh
Vidyut Saudha Building, 100 kWp , APTRANSCO
(2001) BHEL
Mousuni Island , 105 kWp, West Bengal
Renewable Energy Agency (2003 )
Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant
www.mnes.nic.in
Summary of Power Generation Technologies Using
Renewable Energy
CDM Projects Applications
Technology
Status of
Technolog
y
Largest
Installatio
n
Capacity
Factor
Cost of
Generatio
n
(Rs./kWh)
No. of
project
s
MW Estimate of
GHG
abatement
in million
tCO
2
eq.
Geothermal D 50 25%
OTEC D 1 MW
a
-
Wave P 150 kW -
Tide P 3.6 MW
b
17%
Wind C 400 MW 14% 2.0-4.4 42 1186 20.5
Small Hydro C 25 MW 40% 1.0-4.5 37 317 8.4
Solar PV C 239 kW 15% 18.0-50.0 - - -
D - Demonstration
P - Prototype
C Commercial
a
- Not operational till date
b
being planned
Status of Renewable Energy
Technologies
Technology
Estimated
Potential
Installed Capacity as
on December, 2006
{Estimated Annual
Generation (GWh)}
Annual
Growth
Rate
(2001-5)
Capacity
Installed in
2005-06
Growth
Rate in
2005-06
Power Generation
Wind 45000 MW 6270 MW {7690} 40% 1452 MW 49%
Small Hydro Projects 15000 MW 1861 MW{6521} 6% 53 MW 3%
Solar Photovoltaic (Grid
connected)
5000 MW 2.74 MW {3} 10% 0
a
0%
Bio Power (Woody
Biomass)
52000 MW 500 MW 36% 87 MW 30%
Bagasse Cogeneration 5000 MW 708 MW 22% 54 MW 12%
Energy Recovery from
Waste
5000 MW 46 MW 28% 0
b
0%
Technology
Installed
Capacity as on
December,
2006
Annual
Growth
Rate (2001-
5)
Capacity
Installed in
2005-06
Growth
Rate in
2005-06
Decentralized Energy Systems
Biogas Plants 3.9 million 4% 0.02 million
1%
Improved Chulhas 35.2 million 1% 0 0%
Solar Photovoltaics
i.Solar Street Lighting System (March 31,
2006)
54795 nos. 4% 1023 nos.
2%
i.Solar Home Lighting Systems (March 31,
2006)
342607 nos. 11% 16530 nos.
5%
i.Solar Power Plants (Isolated) 1.86 MW
p
3% 0.59 MW
p
3%
Solar Thermal
i.Solar Water Heating Systems 1.65 million m
2
26% 0.2 million
m
2
25%
i.Box solar cookers 0.6 million 4% 0.25
5%
i.Concentrating dish cookers 2000 nos. 98% 0 nos.
0%
i.Community cookers 12 nos. - 1 nos.
10%
Wind Pumps 1137 nos. 8% 62 nos.
7%
Aero-generator /Hybrid Systems 0.5 MW 38% 11 kW
3%
Solar Photovoltaic Pumps 7015 nos. 14% 366 nos.
6%
Renewable Installed Capacity trend
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
Perspective Plan (MNRE)
Source: 11
th
Plan proposal MNRE Govt of India
Renewable installed capacity and
generation
Installed
Capacity*
(MW)
Estimated
Capacity factor
Estimated
Generation
(GWh)
Wind
7845 14%
9621
Biomass Power
606 70%
3185
Biomass Gasifier
86 60%
527
Bagasse
Cogeneration
720 60%
3784
Small Hydro
2046 40%
7169
Waste to Energy
55 50%
241
Solar PV
2.74 20%
5
Total
11360 25%
24380
*as on J an 1, 2008
Estimated Renewable Generation
in India
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Y ear
A
n
n
u
a
l

G
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n

(
M
i
l
i
i
o
n

K
W
h
)
Renewable Share in Power
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Y ear
Installed Capacity
Generation
Trend of wind energy
development in India
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
T
i
l
l

0
3
/
9
2
1
9
9
2
-
9
3
1
9
9
3
-
9
4
1
9
9
4
-
9
5
1
9
9
5
-
9
6
1
9
9
6
-
9
7
1
9
9
7
-
9
8
1
9
9
8
-
9
9
1
9
9
9
-
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
-
0
1
2
0
0
1
-
0
2
2
0
0
2
-
0
3
2
0
0
3
-
0
4
2
0
0
4
-
0
5
2
0
0
5
-
0
6
T
i
l
l

0
9
/
0
6
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
M
W
Generation from wind
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
T
i
l
l

0
3
/
9
2
1
9
9
2
-
9
3
1
9
9
3
-
9
4
1
9
9
4
-
9
5
1
9
9
5
-
9
6
1
9
9
6
-
9
7
1
9
9
7
-
9
8
1
9
9
8
-
9
9
1
9
9
9
-
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
-
0
1
2
0
0
1
-
0
2
2
0
0
2
-
0
3
2
0
0
3
-
0
4
Year
P
o
w
e
r

G
e
n
e
r
a
t
e
d

A
n
n
u
a
l
y

(
G
W
h
)
.
.
Diffusion curve
L wind potential estimate.
P cumulative installed capacity
dP/dt increment in installed capacity
) ( P L P
dt
dP

Bt
Ae
L
P

+
=
1
Bt A
P
L
=

ln 1 ln
Installed capacity for India from 1992 2006
Value of coefficients
A B
641.99 -0.03 0.88
R
2
Diffusion Curves for wind energy
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
M
W
Actual Installation
Diffusion curve
Upper limit of uncertainity
Lower limit of uncertainity
Forecast Values by MNRE
Pot ent ial = 45000MW
a1
a2
a
a
m
Values in the uncertainty limit of
5%
Year Projection by
MNRE
Projection by
diffusion curve
Lower
limit
Higher limit
2007 7000 8700 2000
24800
2012 17500 23000 5800
39600
2022 40000 42900 27400
44800
Trend of Installed Capacity Small
Hydro Power Projects in India
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
M
W
Installed Capacity
Capacity Addition
Diffusion Curves for Small Hydro Power
Projects
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
M
W
Actual Installation
Diffusion curve
Upper limit of uncertainity
Lower limit of uncertainity
Forecast Values by MNRE
Diffusion curve (accelerated growth rate =9%)
Potential =15000MW
Values in the uncertainty limit of
5%
Year
Projection by
MNRE
Projection by
diffusion curve
Lower limit Higher limit
2007 1960 1970 1860 2080
2012 3360 2550 2370 2740
2022 6500 4100 3710 4520
Hydro Diffusion
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
M
W
)
.
Actual Installation
Potential 15000 MW
Potential11000 MW
Potential 20000 MW
Values by MNRE
Potenti al = 15000MW
Potenti al =20000MW
Potential = 11000MW
Maharashtra
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
i
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

c
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

o
f

w
i
n
d

p
o
w
e
r

(
M
W
)
Tamil nadu
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
year
i
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

c
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

o
f

w
i
n
d

p
o
w
e
r

i
n

M
W
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
J an-07
june
july
august
sept
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
hours
P
o
w
e
r

g
e
n
e
r
a
t
e
d

i
n

M
W
january
J une
J uly
August
September
Wind Generation
Total Generation
Tamil Nadu
2006-7
Growth in Production of Photovoltaic
Modules in India
Solar PV Modules Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
A
n
n
u
a
l

P
V

M
o
d
u
l
e

P
r
o
d
u
c
i
t
o
n

(
M
W
)
Cost of Generation (Rs./kWh)
Capital
cost/MW
(Million INR)
Annualised
capital cost
(Million INR)
Annual
O&M
(Million INR)
ALCC
(Million
INR)
CUF=10
%
CUF=20
%
CUF=25
%
300.60 35.30 6.00 41.30 47.17 23.58 18.87
Cost of power generation using solar PV
Projected Renewable installed
capacity and generation (2022)
Installed
Capacity*
(MW)
Estimated
Capacity factor
Estimated
Generation
(GWh)
Wind
42900 17%
63400
Biomass Power
2500 70%
15300
Biomass Gasifier
100 60%
527
Bagasse
Cogeneration
5500 60%
39400
Small Hydro
6500 40%
22,800
Waste to Energy
100 50%
241
Solar PV
100 20%
175
Total
59,800 27%
142600
Aggregate Grid connected
Integrated Energy Policy Committee
2022 425000 MW Installed capacity 2118000
Generation
Renewables 14% of Installed capacity
6.7% of generation
Trends of overall growth lower than forecast values
Trends of renewable capacity higher than forecast
value
Technology cost reductions
Need for refinement of methods
Solar Water Heating System
COLLECTOR
STORAGE
TANK
FROM
OVERHEAD
TANK
TO USAGE
POINT
AUXILIARY
HEATER
STORAGE
TANK
COLLECTOR
PUMP
FROM
OVERHEAD
TANK
TO USAGE
POINT
Schematic of solar water heating system
AUXILIARY
HEATER
Solar Water Heating Systems in India
Installed Capacity = 1.5 million sq. m. (0.8% of estimated potential)
Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area
Target area
Weather data, area details
Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i)
Residential (1) Hospital
(2)
Nursing
Homes (3)
Hotels
(4)
Others
(5)
POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREA
Technical Potential (m
2
of collector area)
Economic Potential (m
2
of collector area)
Market Potential (m
2
of collector area)
Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year)
Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)
Sub-class (i, j)
Classification based on factors* (j)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential Market Potential
Potential for end use
sector (i = 1)
Potential
for i = 2
Potential
for i = 5
Potential
for i = 4
Potential
for i = 3
Base load
for heating
Electricity/ fuel savings
Economic
viability
Price of electricity
Investment for
SWHS
Technical
Potential
SWHS
capacity
Constraint: roof
area availability
Capacity of
SWHS
(Collector area)
Target
Auxiliary
heating
Single end use point
Micro simulation using TRNSYS
Hot water
usage pattern
Weather
data
SIMULATION
Auxiliary heating requirement
No. of end
use points
Technical
Potential
Economic
Potential
Economic
Constraint
Market
Potential
Constraint:
market
acceptance
Potential for end use sector (i = 1)
* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of
solar water heating systems
Sub-class (i, j)
Classification based on factors* (j)
Single end use point
POTENTIAL
SECTOR (i)
Load Curve Representing Energy
Requirement for Water Heating for Pune
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour of day
E
n
e
r
g
y

C
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n

(
M
W
)
Typical day of January
Typical day of May
Total Consumption =760 MWh/day
Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day
53%
Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune
Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day
Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day
Total Electricity Consumption of Pune
Solar Water Heater Diffusion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

o
f

S
o
a
l
r

W
a
t
e
r

H
e
a
t
i
n
g

S
y
s
t
e
m
s

(
m
i
l
l
i
o
n

s
q
.

m
.
)
Actual installed (million sq. m.)
Diffusion curve
Upper limit of uncertainity
Lower limit of uncertainity
Potenti al =60 mi l l i on sq.m.
Diffusion of SWH
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
S
o
l
a
r

W
a
t
e
r

H
e
a
t
i
n
g

C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

(
c
o
l
l
e
c
t
o
r

a
r
e
a

i
n

m
i
l
l
i
o
s
q
.

m
.
)
.
.
Actual installed (million sq. m.)
Potential 140 million sq. m.
Potential 60 million sq. m.
Potential 200 million sq. m.
Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.)
Pot ent ial = 60 million m
2
Pot ent ial = 140 million m
2
Pot ent ial = 200 million m
2
Estimated Potential in
2092 = 199 million m
2

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the day.
L
o
a
d

(
k
W
)
Residential Electricity Demand Agriculture Demand
Industry demand Total Load
Typical Village Load Profile
Load
Factor
28%
Rajamele
WB
Only 44% of households have access to
electricity
Capacity of village electrification systems vary
from 1 kW to 100 kW
Supply for 4-6 hrs/day
~ 80,000 villages to be electrified
Village Electrification
Features of these villages (Sastry, 2003):
Difficult terrain
3-30 km away from grid
No. of households - 2 to 200
Avg. population ~ 500
Power demand quite low
Transport & communication facilities are minimal
Income levels & paying capacity low
State Type of Renewable Energy No. of Isolated Power systems
Chattisgarh
PV
Bio-Diesel
Hybrid
PV
Bio-mass
West Bengal
PV
Wind-Diesel
Bio-mass gasifier
17 (25 to 110 kW)
1 (510 kW)
2 (500 kW)
Assam
PV
Micro-hydel
1
1
PV
Karnataka PV
Solar home lighting systems
only
micro-hydel
800 (1 to 6 kW)
05 (10 kW)
01
Maharashtra
2 (5 kW)
1 (15 kW)
Andhra Pradesh
Solar home lighting systems
only
Kerala
2 (55 kW) but recently got
synchronized with the grid
Map of Ghotiya, Chattisgarh (1 kW)
Observations from readings
Though the inverter is rated as 230 V it gives
only 220V
Maximum load - 1.04 kW
Evening peak as well as a morning peak
Total power consumption ~ 10 kWh/day
Voltage at the extreme bus ~ 210V
Impedance of the line is quite high
Daily load factor = 0.46
Plant utilization factor = 0.21
Successful initiatives in decentralized
generation (Sharma, 2007)
DESI Power
Barefoot College, Tilonia
Avani, Uttaranchal
NARI, Phaltan
Sunderbans, West Bengal
Map of Rajmachi, Maharashtra
System Specifications
Capacity: 5 kW
Single phase, 220 V
100 PV modules of 50 W each
Lead acid battery of tubular type
120 V; 800 Ah
Inverter: 7.5 kVA
5 kWp Solar PV system at
Rajmachi village, Maharashtra
Experimental setup for
the measurement of load
curve and generation
Load profile taken over a day
(5 kW system)
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
0:00:00 4:48:00 9:36:00 14:24:00 19:12:00 0:00:00
ti me
l
o
a
d
Average Load
Voltage profile for different locations
of DG
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
0 5 10 15 20
bus no.
v
o
l
t
a
g
e

(
p
.
u
.
)
slack bus = 1 slack bus = 9 slack bus = 10
Bio-diesel based power
plant of 10 kW rating
(Raipur, Chattisgarh)
Solar Water pumping
system for village
Conclusions
Need for better methods of potential estimation
Diffusion models scope for improved target setting
Need to track actual generation
Policy makers underestimate renewable share
Need for uncertainty estimation
Quantification for distributed generation, DSM
options needed
10% renewable generation by renewables till 2022
achievable, basedon existing technology
Issues related to mainstreaming of renewables
Acknowledgment
Balkrishna Surve
Project Assistant
Indu R. Pillai
Ph.D - 2008
Mel George A.
M.Tech - Ongoing
M.B. Sivapriya
M.Tech - 2008
Thank you
References
AKNReddy,R H Williams, T. J ohannson,EnergyAfter Rio-
Prospects and Challenges-,UNDP, 1997, New York.
MNES Annual Reports, 2001-2008
Integrated Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission,
2006
11
th
Five year plan proposal, MNRE, Govt of India
www.mnes.nic.in
S.P.Sukhatme, Solar Energy, TataMcGraw Hill, Delhi,1997
Banerjee, Comparison of DG options, Energy Policy, 2006
Pillai, Banerjee, Solar Energy, 2007
Manish, Pillai, Banerjee, Sustainability analysis of
renewables, Energy for Sustainable Development ,
December 2006