Curvilinear Regression

Curvilinear Regression
When X and Y are not linearly related (e.g., anxiety and performance), we often use an intrinsically
linear model (one with transformations of the IVs) and then fit data to the model using polynomial
regression.
o An intrinsically linear model linear in its parameters !ut nonlinear in the "aria!les. #y some
transformations, a model that is nonlinear in the "aria!les may !e reduced to a linear model
(which is an assumption in multiple regression).
Y' = a + b
1
X
1
+ b
2
X
2
, where X
2
= X
1
2
($inear model% polynomial regression e&uation)
o An intrinsically nonlinear model nonlinear in its parameters and in the "aria!les. #y some
transformations, a model that is nonlinear in the "aria!les may !e reduced to a linear model
(which is an assumption in multiple regression).
Y' = b
0
(1 - e
-bX
) ('onlinear model% cur"ilinear regression e&uation)
o A linear e&uation relating transformed "aria!les (intrinsically linear model) is simpler and more
elegant than a cur"ilinear e&uation relating untransformed "aria!les.
(o summari)e, cur"ilinear regression uses a linear model to fit a cur"ed line to data points using
polynomial regression e&uation.
(ransformation of a predictor "aria!le
*+olynomial, the predictor is raised to a certain power, which produces a cur"ed line, not a straight
line.
(he order of the e&uation indicates the num!er of !ends in the regression cur"e.
(he highest order that a gi"en e&uation may ta-e is e&ual to g . /% g the num!er of distinct "alues of
the predictor.
We test se"eral polynomial regression e&uations. +olynomial e&uations are formed !y ta-ing a predictor
to successi"e powers.
0rder of e&uation 1ata
trend
2xample graphs
3irst4degree
polynomial
Y5 6 a 7 !/X
$inear
8econd4degree
polynomial
Y56a 7 !/X 7 !9X
9
:uadratic
1
Curvilinear Regression
(hird4degree
polynomial
Y56a 7 !/X 7 !9X
9

7!;X
;
<u!ic
n
th
4degree
polynomial
Y5 6 a 7 !/x 7 !9x
9
7
!;x
;
7 ... !nx
n
:uartic
(=
th
)
or higher
order
Note (he order of e&uation indicates the num!ers of !ends in the regression cur"e. 3irst4degree no !end% second4degree one !end%
third4degree two !ends.
Data
1.00 8 2.00
2.00 6 4.00
3.00 4 4.00
4.00 3 5.00
5.00 3 5.00
6.00 4 4.00
7.00 6 2.00
8.00 5 3.00
9.00 7 1.00
10.00 9 1.00
10 10 10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
N Total
X Y Y1
Graph: Y' = 9.8 - 2.48X + .242X
2
X
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Y
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
Curvilinear Regression
Graph: Y1' = 1.6 + 1.23X - .14X
2
X
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Y
1
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
8e&uence of tests used to model cur"es in polynomial regression
/. 2nter each term, starting with linear term (X)
2. 2nter &uadratic term, X
9
and chec- if >?
9
(
9
X . Y
9
XX . Y
? ?
9

)is significant
3. 2nter cu!ic term, X
;
and chec- if >?
9
(
9
XX . Y
9
X XX . Y
9 ; 9
? ?
)is significant
=. 2nter &uartic term, X
=
etc.
If you don5t ha"e any theory or rationale that X and Y are cur"ilineally related, don5t run a polynomial
regression @ust to see if data fit cur"ilinear trend well.
In socialA!eha"ioral research it is rare to find significant trends !eyond the &uadratic.
3