Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ralf Matthaes
Managing Director
TNS Vietnam
AMCHAM
October 11, 2007
Gaining the competitive edge - AGENDA
Looking at Asian trends to predict Vietnam’s potential – Post WTO
Asian / Vietnamese Population Trends
Asian / Vietnamese Wealth Trends
Asian / Vietnamese Consumption Trends
Asian / Vietnamese Attitudinal Trends
12 Changing trends
Looking at Asian trends to
predict Vietnam’s consumer
future – Post WTO Vietnam
Population Trends
Asia’s Population (60% of global pop.)
Population in Million Asia = 3,137,500,000
Indonesia 246
Japan 127
Philippines 90
Vietnam 85
Vietnam = 2.7 % of Asia
Thailand 65
Korea 49
Malaysia 25
Taiwan 23
Hong Kong 7
Singapore 4.5
Philippines 38 20 22 14 6
India 35 20 22 17 6
Malaysia 35 19 24 16 6
Indonesia 34 19 23 17 7
China 27 18 26 20 9
Thailand 27 19 27 19 7
Taiwan 24 18 27 21 11
Singapore 23 15 30 24 10
S Korea 23 18 28 21 9
Hong Kong 19 14 30 23 14
Japan 16 15 20 29 21
Malaysia 1.78
Singapore 1.42
Indonesia 1.41
India 1.38
Vietnam 1.20
Thailand 0.68
Taiwan 0.61
China 0.59
Korea 0.42
Japan 0.02
New Zealand 58 11
Japan 56 10
S Korea 39 11
Hong Kong 38 15
Taiwan 31 23
Singapore 30 26
China 29 17
Thailand 29 20
Indonesia 21 37
Malaysia 19 47
Vietnam 15 43
Philippines 13 56
77.7
Thailand 89.7
Female(%)
77.3
Vietnam
83.5
Male (%)
59.7
Korea 79.9
59.5
Indonesia 84.7
52
Philippines 82.6
51.9
Malaysia
81.4
51.2
Taiwan 76.2
350
300
250
206.30
200
150
100
58.60 48.50
50 25.20 17.30 17.20 17.10
7.50 7.20 5.60 2.20 1.50 1.00
-
dia
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HK
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Vietnam has the 5th most number of households in Asia,
making Vietnam very attractive for Investment
**Source: GeoHive (www.xist.org/earth
Vietnam has Asia’s smallest urban pop.
100 99
82 76 69
47 40
30,000
27,320 27,150
25,390
25,000
20,000
16,480
15,110
15,000
10,000
5,150
5,000
2,750
1,700 1,290 1,190
740 730
-
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Vietnam’s GDP/ per capita has increase seven fold in the past 15 years
The emergence of SEC Scale
A = US $1,001 +
2006 21 55 24
2003 14 36 50
2001 12 32 56
1999 7 31 62
VC-20060 2 40 51 5
VC-2004 2 5 37 49 6
23
18
15
4 4 3
-2.4 -2.5
20
11
4 3
2 1
-8
Urban National National National National National National
Vietnam China Thailand Taiwan Malaysia Korea Philippines
Total FMCG – Value Growth Rate (%) - Year 2006 vs. Year 2005
Asia’s Fast Food Penetration
Local & Foreign FF purchase in past week – urban only
99
73
65
55
40 39
10
30
13
20
19 18
10
5
Direct Sales
Traditional Trade
82 Modern Trade
51 55 54 60
48
33 34
12
a
ia
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an
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nd
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pa
As
na
in
iw
la
ay
Ch
Ko
Ja
pp
ai
et
Ta
al
Th
Vi
ili
M
Ph
Philippines N=1198 38 49 12 1
Singapore N=1509 29 66 5
Japan N=1321 29 61 10 1
India N=1968 26 48 21 5
Indonesia N=995 21 74 5
China N=996 12 67 19 3
Korea N=1200 10 78 11 2
Very happy Quite happy Not very happy Not at all happy
India N=1896 71 22 62
Quite proud
Indonesia N=995 48 45 61
Not very proud
Singapore N=1508 44 50 61
Japan N=1258 23 36 38 4
Korea N=1198 17 61 19 3
0 Not necessary
Korea N=1043 92 8 1 Needs children
World Values Survey
Philippines N=1182 87 13
Singapore N=1469 56 44
China N=863 37 63
Family will become less important while chasing the economic dream
Ownership: State-owned
Ownership: State-owned
14.0
13.0
Domestic channel
12.0 11.5
Foreign channel 10.7
10.3
10.0
Number of channels
8.0
6.3
6.0
4.5
4.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
2001 2005 2006 2007
25.0
Domestic channel
20.2
20.0 Foreign channel
16.5
15.0 13.2
Number of
channels
10.1
9.4
10.0
5.0
5.0
2.6
0.0
0.0
2001 2005 2006 2007
In contrast, though catching up, local TV is still preferred in HCMC
250
TTV
Minutes viewed
Cab/sat TV
200
Free2Air TV
150
1st half 1st half 1st half 1st half 1st half
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Satellite & Cable TV are beginning
to challenge, Free to Air programming
Source: TNS TV Audience Measurement, 2003-2007
The bigger the share the higher the loss
TV rating of HTV7 in HCM City
Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam – % of households
the sixth sense of business™ 43
`
Understanding an average Rural family…
Household 4 members
vs. 4.6 in urban
Size
100% Farmer/
traditional Shopping Shop Owner
Employment
trade vs. 14% Habits vs. employee &
Modern Trade in self-employed in
urban urban
Rural
425,000 Monthly
Monthly 1.5-3 mln
VND vs. 681,000 FMCG VND vs. 4.2 mln
Income
VND in urban Spending in urban
Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam – % of households
the sixth sense of business™ 44
`
Durable Ownership – FMCG Impact Items
Most of rural households are now using electronic cooker. However, there is
still a big gap with urban families in make-life-easier products
Refrigerator
1% vs. 13%
Electronic Cooker
53% vs. 88%
Microwave Oven
Gas Cooker
Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam – % of households
the sixth sense of business™ 45
`
Durable Ownership – Communication Impact Items
Color television nowadays becomes a necessity in rural. Radio is also very
popular while telephone and computer are still limited.
95% in rural
vs. 97% in urban
45% in rural
vs. 82% in urban
Telephone 9% in rural
vs. 41% in urban
Radio/ Cassette
Computer
Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam – % of households
the sixth sense of business™ 46
`
Durable Ownership – Luxury Items
There’s also a big gap in ownership of high-tech equipments between rural
and urban households
3% in rural 9% in rural
vs. 34% in urban vs. 35% in urban
Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam – % of households
the sixth sense of business™ 47
`
Sector Ownership
Mobile phone already reaches 33% rural population while Internet is still at the
very infant stage there! Motorbike ownership is mostly at the low & medium
range below 15mln VND one unit
Source: TNS Vietnam Rural Pilot Survey & TNS Worldpanel Vietnam – % of households
China
Korea
Philippines Family
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Work
Singapore
India
Japan
Mordern trade 14
Streetshop 11
All Channels 11
Market 8
Specialty 7
Obesity
12%
Malnutrition
2007
Wealth has decreased malnutrition, but indulgence
has Changed eating habits and increased obesity
Source: Study on nutritional status & physical activities of children 6-
the sixth sense of business™ 55
11y.o – NIN & Nestlé `
Status
Men’s care
(displaying wealth)
Home Entertainment
System
Still Camera
18
16
14
12
11 12
10
10
7 6
6 5 5
Business manager Look after the family / Business owner / Teacher Doctor/ pharmacist
home entrepreneur
2006 53 47
2005 45 55
2004 40 60
2001 28 72
66
55
48
43
29 29 27
84
80
74
68
60 58
53
49
40
40
26
24
21 22
20 17 16
1 1
0
1999 2004 2006
DVD Player Flat screen TV Personal computer Mobile phone Video disk VCD
India 45
Vietnam 62
Malaysia 68
Thailand 69
Indonesia 76
China 80
Taiwan 85
New Zealand 86
Australia 106
HK 107
Singapore 108
Korea 115
Japan 124
Total 12 5 44 40
Economic
Boom
15-19 22 7 66 5
By age
20-24 24 5 49 23
ing
Economic fad
a r e
reform ns
25-34 5 5 43
ditio 47
T ra
Post –war
Baby Boom
35-45 5 3 28 64
The lean
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
years
Western Asian Vietnamese pop Vietnamese traditional
300 Offices
Over 14000 employees
the sixth sense of business™ 83
`
…and so have we….