Value Betting For Football

This is a short mini course provided to members of www.Football-Bets.co.uk

which teaches one method of soccer match odds compilation.
The course was written by Tammboy.
Tammboy has many years experience working as a professional odds compiler for major
bookmakers but now acts as one of a panel of advisors providing soccer betting tips to
private clients on the football bets website.

Part One: Value in Betting

The most common phrase associated with knowledgeable betting is whether the bet is
value. !t has been banded around so much it seems to have taken on a new meaning " a
meaning far removed from its original. !n the following pages# ! am going to discuss what
value means and how to know whether a bet is value.

!n every event# whether sport or something else like dice rolling or coin flipping# there is
always the true probability of the outcome occurring. !n dice rolling " rolling a two
would be $ out of % or $%.%&' chance of occurring. !n coin flipping " a head would be $
out of ( or )*' chance of occurring.

!n sporting events# however# there is no way of knowing the true probability of# for
example# in tennis# Federer beating +adal or in Football# ,helsea beating -./. The
probability can be estimated but there is likely to be some error or difference between the
true probability and our estimated probability.

!n betting# odds reflect the probability of an event occurring. %01 represents a 1*' chance
of that event occurring2 !n $* repetitions of this event# 1 would win# % would lose. 1 out
of $* is 1*'. 3alue is when the odds pay more than the true probability. 3alue is when
the odds available reflect a lower chance of success than the true chance of success.

!f the odds available were %01# then this would be value only if the chance of success
were greater than 1*'. !n practice# it4s wise to build in a margin for error# so the %01
would only be bet if we were confident that the chance of success was )*' or more.

5dds are generally a fairly accurate reflection of the true probability " it is rare to find
too many out of line or representing value. 6owever# there are many bookmakers about
and competition is strong. This can lead to many pushing prices out and making their
odds bigger in an effort to attract more business and this is usually where value can be
found.

!n the next section ! will discuss how to create goal ratings# the first step in creating you
own odds line for football matches.

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Part Two: Creating Goal Ratings In Order To Compute Odds In Football Matches

There are many methods for creating an odds-line for football matches but the method
that will discussed here is the .oisson process# sometimes also referred to as the .oisson
/egression model.

Before ! begin# ask yourself what are the odds in a football game for two competing
teams that are exactly the same strength with no home advantage7

8ost older odds-compilers would say %01# %01# )0(. This represents 1*' chance of a win
for either team and (9.%' chance of the draw.

1*' : 1*' : (9.%' ; $*9.%'

The extra 9.%' <greater than $**'= represents the bookmaker4s margin and in very
simple terms is the profit he can expect to make from the game as a percentage of the
total amount bet on the game.

Firstly# increased competition has changed this old example so a fair game might be more
like $>09# $>09# $>0) these days. ?hen worked out this represents just under 1' margin
for the bookmaker and less potential profit.

The other point to think about is why a draw is less likely than a win7 This is because
there are less ways it can happen. @ draw can only occur at *-*# $-$# (-(# >->. But a win
could occur at $-*# (-*# (-$# >-*# >-$. There are more ways in which a win can occur so a
win is always more likely than a draw.

The .oisson method relies on having an accurate goal rating for each team. This is the
bug-bear of all odds compilers because this is the hard bit. @ goal rating represents the
number of goals team @ is expected to score against team B. 5nce you have established a
goal rating for each team then ?in0Araw0Bose# @sian 6andicap# First Coal Dcorer odds
can be computed. !n fact# most odds on a football game will originate from this goal
rating.

Aifferent odds compilers and companies will have different methods of computing their
goal ratings. !t can the make a big difference to the .EB sheet at the end of the year and
will be a closely guarded secret. ! use a combination of different methods that ! picked up
working for different bookmakers over the years and this part of the process can get Fuite
complicated. 6owever# ! am going to show a very simple method of achieving fairly
robust results.

5n ) February (*$$# lets look at two premiership teams competing2

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?est 6am vs. Birmingham

This season ?est 6am have scored (& goals in () games. That is (& G() ; $.*9 goals per
game.

This season Birmingham have scored (> goals in (> games. That is (> G(> ; $ goal per
game.

@t home ?est 6am have scored $1 goals# away $> goals. @t home they are $1 G$> ;
$.*& <as a multiplication factor= better at home.

@t home Birmingham have scored $( goals# away $$ goals. @way from home they $$0$(
; *.H$ <as a multiplication factor= worse away from home.

Coal rating ; Coals per game x multiplication factor.

?est 6am2 $.*9 x $.*& ; $.$% goals.
Birmingham2 $ x *.H$ ; *.H$ goals.

This is a simple but robust method for deciding goal ratings of two opposing teams.
@lready you can see that ?est 6am should be slight favorites. !t should also be a low
scoring affair. The total goals we expect is (.*) " below the season4s premiership average
currently at I (.&.

!n the next part# ! will show you how to turn goal rating into odds.

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Part Three: Creating Odds From Goal Ratings For Football Matches

@s previously mentioned ! am using the .oisson method for computing odds of a football
game from goal ratings.

!n our last example# we looked at ?est 6am and Birmingham ,ity and computed goal
ratings2

?est 6am2 $.$% goals.
Birmingham2 *.H$ goals.

!n 8icrosoft Jxcel# you will need to familiariKe yourself with the .oisson function. The
help file looks like this2

POIO!"#$mean$cumulati%e&

L " amount of goals being scored
8ean " our goal rating
,umulative " set to false

To find the probability of a *-* match outcome# you would enter2

POIO!"'$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!"'$ '),($ False& - ')(.* "(.)*/&

To find the probability of a draw you would need to add all the possibilities up to ) goals2

POIO!" '$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" '$ '),($ False& - ')(.* "(.)*/&
POIO!" ($ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" ($ '),($ False& - ')(00 "(0)0/&
POIO!" .$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" .$ '),($ False& - ')'01 "0)1/&
POIO!" 0$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 0$ '),($ False& - ')''2 "')2/&
POIO!" 2$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 2$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&
POIO!" 1$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 1$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&

')(.* 4 ')(00 4 ')'01 4 ')''2 4 ')''' 4 ')''' - ').,, ".,),/&

(H.H' represents H01 against in odds.

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To find the probability of a ?est 6am win# you would need to add all the possibilities up
to ) goals2

POIO!" ($ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" '$ '),($ False& - ')(2* "(.)*/&
POIO!" .$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" '$ '),($ False& - ')'51 "(.)*/&
POIO!" .$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" ($ '),($ False& - ')'66 "(.)*/&
POIO!" 0$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" '$ '),($ False& - ')'00 "(.)*/&
POIO!" 0$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" ($ '),($ False& - ')'0' "(.)*/&
POIO!" 0$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" .$ '),($ False& - ')'(2 "(.)*/&
POIO!" 2$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" '$ '),($ False& - ')'(' "(.)*/&
POIO!" 2$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" ($ '),($ False& - ')'', "(.)*/&
POIO!" 2$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" .$ '),($ False& - ')''2 "(.)*/&
POIO!" 2$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 0$ '),($ False& - ')''( "(.)*/&
POIO!" 1$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" '$ '),($ False& - ')''. "(.)*/&
POIO!" 1$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" ($ '),($ False& - ')''( "(.)*/&
POIO!" 1$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" .$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&
POIO!" 1$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 0$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&
POIO!" 1$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 2$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&


@dding these up eFuals *.1$1 <1$.1'=.

1$.1' represents &0) against in odds.

To find the probability of a Birmingham win# you would need to add all the possibilities
up to ) goals2

POIO!" '$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" ($ '),($ False& - ')((1 "(()1/&
POIO!" '$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" .$ '),($ False& - ')'1. "1)./&
POIO!" ($ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" .$ '),($ False& - ')'*( "*)(/&
POIO!" '$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 0$ '),($ False& - ')'(* "()*/&
POIO!" ($ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 0$ '),($ False& - ')'(5 "()5/&
POIO!" .$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 0$ '),($ False& - ')'(( "()(/&
POIO!" '$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 2$ '),($ False& - ')''2 "')2/&
POIO!" ($ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 2$ '),($ False& - ')''2 "')2/&
POIO!" .$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 2$ '),($ False& - ')''. "')./&
POIO!" 0$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 2$ '),($ False& - ')''( "')(/&
POIO!" '$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 1$ '),($ False& - ')''( "')(/&
POIO!" ($ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 1$ '),($ False& - ')''( "')(/&
POIO!" .$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 1$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&
POIO!" 0$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 1$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&
POIO!" 2$ ()(*$ False&+ POIO!" 1$ '),($ False& - ')''' "%er3 small&


@dding these up eFuals *.(9% <(9.%'=.
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(9.%' represents )0( against in odds.

,omparing our odds to the odds available2

election Chance Our Odds 7%ailable Odds 8ecision
?est 6am 1$.1' &0) $$0$* +o bet
Birmingham (9.%' )0( >0$ Bet
Araw (H.H' H01 )0( Bet

!n this scenario# it seems that the price on a ?est 6am win is too short and that
Birmingham or the Araw represents better value. 6owever# to allow for a margin of error
we could factor in a )' error margin by multiplying the chance by *.H). This would
produce the following scenario2

election Chance Our Odds 7%ailable Odds 8ecision
?est 6am >H.>' %01 $$0$* +o bet
Birmingham (&.(' $>0) >0$ Bet
Araw (9.1' )0( )0( +o bet

!n this scenario# Birmingham represents a value bet at >0$.
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Odds Compiling 9uestions
@fter initial release of this mini course to clients at www.football-bets.co.uk there was a
bit of a - E @ session. Below is a summary of Fuestions and responses.
It it possible to backwards engineer the model to work out betfairs and a bookies goal
expectations?
Yes it is possible although very complex and not something Im going to try to explain!
Either the correct scores or the match odds are slightly out of line. Does it mean that
poisson distribution isn't a perfect fit or does there mean there is error or scope for an
edge in their mistake?
Yes they will be slightly out of line because in the simple model I introduced, it was assumed that
the maximum goals a team can score in a game was 5 but obviously this it not the case.
I did read about motivational factors such as the side being behind becomes slightly more
likely to score and that poisson doesn't take this into account?
I remember Kevin ullein doing some research on this for the !acing ost I thin". If I remember
right, he didnt thin" there was any claim in this argument. #hings li"e teams being more
motivated when theyre losing$winning in a relegation dog%fight etc. werent born out by results
over the seasons.

You've shared a very basic for calculating goal expectation do you have any better more
complicated methods to share?

#ons! &ut I thin" thats the art to ma"ing it successful. 'nfortunately, Im obsessed by it and "eep
fine tuning everything.
hrough my research I notice shots!shots on target are a good indicator of performance"
however with corners I've found sometimes teams at the top surprisingly have less than
teams at the bottom" how do you rate the amount of corners as important and do bookies
factor in corners into their goal expectations?
If you have a data file with shots$shots on target and corners then I would simply run a regression
analysis on it and see where it leads. I thin" corners do have a bearing but obviously not as much
as shots on target. ( weighting between the factors is probably the way to go)
Do bookies have access to stats us meer punters don't?
*o not any more + historic soccer stats are widely available on the net . It is possible that some
might have found a way to use prometrics or the optic data but I doubt it and that certainly wasnt
available a few years bac".

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#re bookmaker$s ratings fully computerised or do they manually tweak them slightly to
reflect team news?
,ost odds%compilers twea" their ratings based on team news and what other boo"ma"ers are
doing. -or example theres no point going .5$/ when you can be standout at 0$1! ,ost are very
wary of going over the betfair price but 2uite li"e sitting in the 3one4 under the &etfair price but
over the &etfair minus 55 6commission7 price.

%ow can stats reflect the personality of a team. &or example" 'am #llardyce's sides are
very physical and always used to give a team like #rsenal a difficult time?
Its a tric"y sub8ect this. I thin" theres a danger when thin"ing li"e this to start loo"ing for winners
rather than probabilities. 9hat were trying to do is create a probability model that is superior to
the boo"ma"ers. It doesnt need to be perfect and and doesnt need to right all the time 8ust better
than the model the boo"ma"ers use. #hen we ma"e money long term. You have to be confident
that a teams ability to score goals reflects all these characteristics that you imply. If you believe
there should be an ad8ustment then this can be made to the team goal rating before crunching
through the poisson process.
he clearest indicator of team strength is goal difference which is a combination of goals
scored and conceded. %ow would you factor in a teams defence into those goal
expectation ratings?
#here was some research conducted on this in the :;s by a statistician called ,ar" <ixon in a
paper ,odelling (ssociation -ootball. =e basically believed that if youre created goal ratings for
each team in a league then by its nature it already incorporated a defensive assessment as well.
In simple terms, if there was no defence, then more goals wouldve been scored and ratings
would be higher.
(hen odds are set how much does the teams name effect the price?
Yes this does happen a lot but its more to do with expected demand. If you are an odds%compiler
and you "now a team will be bac"ed + for example4 ,an 'td, >helsea, (rsenal in a treble on the
coupon? or in @cotland, >eltic and !angers + then youll ma"e your company more money in the
long term by shaving a few rolls off the price.
I read a betting book which said a horserace price was derived by listing the factors that
affect the race for each horse and then dividing that by the total number of factors. Is
football betting done the same way?
#his is a logistic regression approach where a multitude of different factors get assigned a value
of either . or ; and are given different weightings depending on their influence in the outcome, in
this case, winning the race or the football game. *eural networ"ing approaches are similar too.
(n old racing system called !@& or !acing @ystems &uilder used to use this method for
computing probabilities of horses winning races and was 2uite successful. =owever, I have
always preferred to go for a ratings approach. In football this is based on the amount of goals you
expect team ( to score against team & and vice versa. In horseracing, something similar to
#imeform or !aceform ratings which reflect the true ability of the horse.
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preadsheet
?ho likes spending all day working out calculations by hand7
To enable everyday ease of use of the method above a microsoft excel spreadsheet was
created to do the calculations.
Must punch in the most basic of goal data and the spreadsheet does the rest.
This spreadsheet is a minor e#tra per: o; ;ull membership o; Football<Bets)co)u:
7;ter 3ou become a ;ull member email admin=;ootball<bets)co)u: i; 3ou want a
cop3 emailed to 3ou)
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