EnvironmentalRisks:Earthquakes

FAkinci,YildizTechnicalUniversity,Istanbul,Turkey
2012ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.
Glossary
Environmentalrisk Actualorpotentialthreatof
adverseeffectsonlivingorganismsandtheenvironment
byeffluents,emissions,wastes,resourcedepletion,and
soon.
Greenbelt Thisisapolicyorlandusedesignationused
inlanduseplanningtoretainareasoflargely
undeveloped,wild,oragriculturallandsurroundingor
neighbouringurbanareas.
Grossnationalproduct Measureofacountrystotal
economicactivity,orthewealthofthecountry.Itis
definedasthetotalvalueofallgoodsand
servicesproducedbyfirmsownedbythecountry
concerned.
Riskmanagement Policies,procedures,andpractices
involvedinidentification,analysis,assessment,control,
andavoidance,minimisation,oreliminationof
unacceptablerisks.
Seismic Relatingtoanearthvibrationcausedby
earthquakesorotherfactorssuchasanexplosionorthe
impactofameteorite.
Introduction
Earthquakes,whicharesuddenmovementsoftheearths
crust resulting in a strong impact without any warning,
have caused heavy casualties and damage throughout
history.Theyhavebeenoneofthemajorfactorsconsid-
ered when selecting locations for settlement. With
increasing populations and low-quality buildings, earth-
quakesposeanevengreaterenvironmentalrisktoday.
The earthquake risk varies significantly in different
partsoftheworld.Therearethreetypesofzonesdepend-
ingonthefrequencyandseverityoftheearthquakes:
1. Aseismiczones,wheretherearenoearthquakesatall
(Canada Shield, Brazil, Central Africa, Central
Australia,NorthGermany,NorthernRussia,Siberian
Plains).
2. Peneseismiczones,wherethereareveryrareandmild
earthquakes (Old Massives of Europe such as Hartz,
Bohemia,andMassiveCentrals,andEasternAfrica).
3. Seismic zones, with severe and frequent earthquakes
(Mediterranean Periphery, AlpineHimalayan Earth-
quakeZone,PacificZone).
AnalysesofEarthquakesandGround
Conditions
Analysis methods used to determine earthquake danger
canbeseparatedintothreegroups:observation-basedana-
lysis,probabilityapproaches,anddescriptiveapproaches.
Observation-basedanalysis is theoldestmethod used
to determine seismic danger. In this method, first, pre-
vious earthquakes are mapped. In the second phase, the
effectsoftheseearthquakesareexaminedwithregardto
the scale of the earthquake. However, with this analysis
method, it is not possible to obtain information on what
kind of effects would result in cases of reoccurrence of
historicalearthquakes.
Theprobabilityapproachincludesintroducingground
movements determined for all earthquakes by means of
digitisingthem.
The descriptive approach reveals the worst-case
scenario caused by an earthquake. In the first phase of
this method, the closest fault lines to human settlements
aredesignated,andinthesecondphase,thelargestearth-
quakethatcouldbecausedbythisfaultiscalculated.Based
on this information, it is assumed that the largest earth-
quake would occur at thepoint closest to the settlement,
andpossiblegroundmovementsinthissituationarecalcu-
lated. Information must constantly be updated for this
method, otherwise disadvantages may be experienced.
Anothernegativeaspectofthismethodisthelowpossibi-
lityofreoccurrenceforhistoricalearthquakes.Therefore,
descriptive approaches are also composed according to
scenariosrelatedtothemostlikelyearthquaketooccur.
Analysis of ground conditions is significant to deter-
minetheimpactsofpossibleearthquakes.Withgeological
and geotectonic studies on the most recent earthquakes,
an attempt has been made to discover the relation
between earthquake sources and settlement cover, and
to use this information to prevent future earthquakes
fromturningintodisasters.
Recently, micro-zoning maps have been drawn, on
which ground conditions depending on earthquake dan-
ger are assessed on a zonal scale. At the same time,
secondary impacts of earthquakes, such as landslides,
liquefaction,andflood,aswellasdirectimpacts,arealso
ENVIRONMENT 99
100 EnvironmentalRisks:Earthquakes
determined. (Practice model: This model was prepared
under the cooperation of the Istanbul Metropolitan
Municipality and the Japan International Cooperation
Agency.Fourdifferentearthquakescenariosweredrawn
up and damage estimations were made for Istanbul
accordingtothispractice.)
Whether ground has a loose or solid structure will
provide clues as to what kind of buildings should be
constructed on it. Generally, rock layers deliver earth-
quakes in the same way, while soft, loose, poorly fitted
andwetgroundmayincreaseearthquakeintensityby23
degrees.Theimpactofearthquakesismuchmoreintense
on alluvial ground and the damage ratio rises as the
thickness of alluvial sediments increases. Fill areas, too,
causemuchdamage,andespeciallythoseincoastalareas
areextremelydangerous.Swamplandsanddrylakebeds
areotherareasthatincreaseearthquakeintensityby23
degrees. It is accepted that unweathered magmatic and
metamorphicrocks,tight,solidlimestones,anddolomites
deliverearthquakeintensitywithoutchangingit.
EarthquakeRiskforHousing
Earthquakes are a risk to housing. They affect housing
planning,building,andmanagingindifferentways.Inthis
section we deal with the different ways in which earth-
quakesaffecthousing.
1. Theearthquakeriskishighinareaswithhighconcen-
trationsofpopulationandbuildings.
2. Planningwhichhasnotbeeninformedbyanyexpertise
increasesearthquakerisk.
3. Thebalanceddistributionofemptylocationsandgreen
beltswithinthesettlementdecreasestheearthquakerisk.
4. Establishing the spatial distribution according to age
groupsaffectstheearthquakerisk.
5. Distribution of population according to economic
valuesisimportantinreducingearthquakerisk.
6. The balanced distribution and qualified construction
of health facilities are important factors in reducing
earthquakerisk.
The same seismic danger exists for different structures
constructedinthesamezone.However,theseismicrisks
foreachofthestructuresmaybedifferent.Thisdifference
originatesfromthefollowingreasons:
1. Thecharacteristicsofthegroundonwhichthebuild-
ingsareconstructed.
2. Dynamicfeaturesofthebuildings.
3. Thedifferencesoflife andcommoditylosses incases
wherethebuildingsaredamaged.
It is possible to determine the ground characteristics,
structuralfeaturesofbuildings,andalsothedamagethat
mightbecausedduetogroundandstructuredeficiencies.
HAZUS, a software package developed by FEMA
(Federal Emergency Management Agency) based on a
geographicalinformationsystem,isusedtoforecastlosses
caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes, storms,
andfloods.WithintheearthquakemoduleofHAZUS,it
is possible to calculate possible losses using database
informationonbuildings,populations,andinfrastructure
as well as ground conditions. Loss forecasting modules
enableustoforecastpossiblelossescausedbyearthquakes
inbothmacro- andmicroscales.
PlanningMeasuresforEarthquakes
Oneofthemeasurestobetakenagainstanearthquakeis
physical planning. The objectives of physical planning
aretolessenthepotentialrisk,mitigatetheconsequences
ofadisaster,facilitaterescueactivities,organiseeveryday
lifeduring theemergencyaidstage,andease rehabilita-
tionandrestructuring.
Basedonthelandusetypesandriskconditionscompiled
byCoburnandSpence(1992),awell-constructedphysical
planmustincludethoseitemsinneedofprotectioninorder
tominimiseriskfromearthquake,asfollows:

Humanlife
Economicactivityareasandinstallations

Industrial

plants

businesses

Other

Storage

ofbasicsupplies

Operationalcapacityofthe

cityandtheregion

power,andinfrastructureplants

Energy,

Transport and communications infrastructure and

means

Water,sewagesystem,andtreatmentplants/networks

Healthinstallations
Houses

Socialandcultural

installations

Educationalinstallations

Valuable locations (human works of art, areas of nat-

uralbeauty,areasofculturalandnationalsignificance,

historical monuments,architecturalworks)

Personalitems.
Theabovementionedpointsapplytosettlementswithhigh
risk.Highriskinrelationtoearthquakescanbeconsidered
as a high rate of collapsing buildings following an earth-
quake;inotherwords,havingpoorconstructionofphysical
structureswithregardtoearthquakeresistance.
Theprimarymeasureshavetobetakeninplaceswith
a high potential for earthquakes. Such areas should not
havehighconcentrationsofpopulationorbuildings.The
death rates of people trying to escape on narrow streets
duringanearthquakearehigh.
EnvironmentalRisks:Earthquakes 101
Green belt land must be designated within the set-
tlement areas; any collapse of a structure should not
create a chain effect and not obstruct transportation.
Economicactivities,themaintransportlinks,andcom-
munication plants should not be concentrated in risk
areas,andthemaintransportroutesmustnotintersect
inriskareas.
The military defence plants also should not be con-
centrated in risk areas. There should be an emergency
backup system for communications in case of loss of
power or damage caused by destructive effects of the
wind.
Following the earthquake of 1999, Istanbul experi-
enced difficulty in executing rescue operations within
areas of 100% housing. Furthermore, other difficulties
werecreatedbynothavingemptyareaswhichcould be
used for temporary accommodation of disaster victims.
Discussions within scientific platforms after this recent
disaster have tended to support the founding of emer-
gencycentres.Thesecentresareconsideredessentialfor
settlements with a high earthquake risk. Turkey started
implementingthesecentresafterthe1999earthquakeand
this is ongoing. However, their effectiveness after an
earthquakehasnotyetbeentested.
Thesecentresmustinclude:
1. Sufficientfood,supplies,andmedicine
2. Thenecessaryconstructionsuppliesandtools/devices
forinstantuse
3. Prefabricatedhousingcomponentstobeusedintem-
poraryhousingconstruction
4. Technical and installation devices/equipment for the
repairofsubstantialengineeringstructures
5. Materials,tools,andinstallationsforinstantuseincase
offlood
6. Equipmentandmaterialsrequiredagainstlocalthreats.
Openspacesandgreenbeltsbetweenneighbourhoodsare
needed for the emergency services after the disaster
(suitableforhelicopterlandingzones,temporaryhousing,
provision of supplies, etc.). The postdisaster aid routes
should be determined and an emergency action plan
should be devised. Such communication should not be
closed after a disaster. Coastal areas must be left free of
development to avoid possible damage from a tsunami.
Furthermore, an emergency lane must be constructed
betweenroadcarriageways.
BuildingPracticeswithRegardto
Earthquakes
Today,groundstudyanalysesenabletheconstructionof
suitablehousingstructures.Nomatterwhatkindofmate-
rials or load-bearing system is used to construct
earthquake-resistantbuildings,itisnecessarytoconsider
certain matters and details. The shapes of earthquake-
resistant structures should be as simple as possible geo-
metrically. These forms may provide the resistance
necessary against earthquake impact, and preferring a
symmetrical shape, such as a square, cube, and so on, is
the optimal solution. Long or wide planned structures
shouldbeavoided.Theearthquakejointsshouldbeused
whenneeded.Howeverearthquakejointswillbringaddi-
tionalcosts.Thedimensionsofload-bearingcomponents
ofastructureshouldbeinproportiontoeachother,while
wallsandcolumnswithinastructureshouldbeallocated
asextendingequally.Wallsandcolumnsshouldbeover-
lapped on every floor and rise without any interruption
frombaseuptoroof.Structuralelementsshouldbewell
joined to each other. Geometric order of the shape,
and dimensions and elements of a structure play an
important role in its ability to withstand an earthquake.
Architecturalshapeisofimportancewithregardtoseis-
mic design. Designed architectural form determines the
typeofload-bearingsystemtobeapplied,whichinturn
determinesthebehaviourofastructureunderearthquake
conditions;manyerrorsinengineeringdetailsarecaused
by design mistakes. Architectural design determines the
sizeoftheseismicforcesloadaffectingcertainstructural
elements or joints. Therefore, it is necessary to choose
suitable forms and other criteria in the course of archi-
tecturaldesign.
Knowing how structures behave under pressure of
horizontal forces enables us to determine which load-
bearingsystemwillbesuitable,duringthedesignphase.
Earthquakesaffectbuildingsbymeans ofdislocatingthe
superstructurethroughastructuresbase.
As was apparent in the Istanbul/Adapazar examples,
when the ground conditions are unsuitable and when
there are high levels of underground water, even heavy
structures carried by single or continuous foundations
have undergone differential settlement, fallen over,
leaned,ortheirgroundfloorshaveturnedintobasements.
Ithasalsobeenseenthatalthoughbuildingsthatusedpile
foundations managed to survive in general, there were
someerroneouspracticeslikenothavingenoughstirrups,
using poor-quality concrete, using primitively prepared
cements (in construction sites) instead of readymade
cements,andthedestructionofinternalcolumnsbyindif-
ferent residents with the aim of creating more internal
space.
Althoughreinforcedconcreteandsteel structuresare
heavy, they do have sufficient rigidity, flexibility, and
endurancetopreventearthquakedamage.Steelstructures
arebestintermsofearthquakeendurance,althoughwell-
designed wooden structures are also resistant to earth-
quakes. The earthquake resistance of brick and stone
masonry structures is relatively weak. Buildings must
include two escape routes (stairs) that can be used in
102 EnvironmentalRisks:Earthquakes
earthquakepanicsituations.Baywindowsandalcoveson
thefacadesaredangerous.
Reinforcingbuildingsagainstearthquakesisnotalways
consideredasthebestoption.Thefullstrengtheningcosts
areabout40%ofthetotalreconstructioncosts.Moreover,
the respective building must be evacuatedfor a period of
about23months.Apartmentbuildingsareownedbymore
than one person, and the differing opinions, expectations,
and financial capabilities of such owners often prevent
decisions being taken with regard to strengthening the
building. The sale price or lease income of strengthened
buildingsdoesnotincrease,andthefinanciallossesresulting
from any future earthquakes may be relatively low when
compared with the instant investment in strengthening.
Besides, it is also possible to mitigate the financial risk
with earthquake insurance. Various incentives for the
construction of earthquake-resistant buildings (such as
reductions in earthquake insurance premiums and real
estatetaxrates)arenotsufficienttoencourageinvestment
inearthquakestrengthening.
As in the Istanbul example, most concrete buildings
were not built to resist powerful earthquakes.
Reinforcement precautions for the concrete buildings
are often insufficient. Therefore, the concrete buildings
intheearthquakezonesareunderhighrisk.Horizontalor
perpendicular groundmovements also have aneffect on
structures.Perpendicularmovementscanbedisregarded
duetothefactthatstructuresaredimensionedasresistant
against perpendicular static loads. Columns do not
undergo significant deformations with the effect of per-
pendicular loads. However, perpendicular movements
form cut effects on columns, thus causing translations
(displacements)onupperpartsofstructures.
Structures to be compulsorily constructed at settle-
mentswithearthquakeriskshouldbelightinweight;as
theweightofastructuredecreases,sotheintensityofthe
effectofanearthquakeonastructurewillalsodecrease.
Also,precautionsandinterventionsrelatedtotheload-
bearing system may reduce the aesthetic value of a
building.Thisisaresultofdecisionsmadeattheplan-
ningstageconcerningstructuralprecautionsduetothe
fact that a settlement is within an area at risk from
earthquakes. For example, in order to avoid the devel-
opment of torsion in a structure, it is necessary to
construct a core at the centre consisting of units such
asthebathroom,stairs, and elevatorsinhighbuildings.
Thisrequirementlimitsthescopeofdesigninplanning.
The building must have simple solutions as far as possi-
ble,andanyornaments,projections,andsoonshouldbe
used only to the extent that the technology provides
guaranteedsolutions.
ManagingEarthquakeRisk
In the first place, settlements should not be located in
earthquakeriskareas.Existingsettlementsinearthquake
areasshouldbereinforcedagainsttheriskofearthquakes.
CaseStudy:BuildingPracticeExamplesfromJapan
Threetypesofearthquake-resistantbuildingdesignmethodsarebeingpractisedinJapan,dependingonthestructuraltypeandheightof
thebuilding.
1. Standardmethod.Thismethoddependsonsimpleloadacceptances.Itisusedforvariousstandardtypesofstructure,takinginto
considerationearlierexperiencesregardingtheconstructionofearthquake-resistantbuildings.Woodenbuildingsareconstructedusing
this method.This concentrateson past experiences anddetermines standard types of buildingthat canwithstand an earthquake for
respectivestructures.
2. Theseismiccoefficientmethod.Thisisthedesignmethodforconstructingearthquake-resistantbuildingsinconsequenceofground
analyses.Ithasbeenappliedsince1926.Thisisusedintheconstructionoflargewoodenbuildings,mediumheightandlowreinforced
concrete buildings, steel buildings, and steel-reinforced concrete mix buildings. However, this method has demonstrated too much
damageduringearthquakesandhasbeguntobemodified.
3. Dynamicdesignmethod.Thismethodisbasedonthelatesttechnologyandisusedforbuildingsofspecialimportanceandhigh-rise
buildings.
Most of the commercial buildings in Tokyo are steel-reinforced concrete or steel buildings. The distribution in downtown Tokyo by
constructionmaterialisasfollows:steel-reinforcedconcrete43%,steel28%,reinforcedconcrete24%,wood5%.
Steel-framedsystemsinhigh-risebuildingsinJapanaregraduallybecomingmoreandmorecommon.Thereasonforthisisthattheir
enduranceagainstearthquakeishigher.Also,constructioncompaniesinthecountryaresufficientlywellequippedtobeabletoconstruct
suchbuildings.
The Architectural Institute of Japan has published the principal rules for design of earthquake-resistant structures in Japan in its
documentTechnicalRecommendationsforHigh-RiseBuildings:
1. Thebuildingshouldhaveasimpleviewinplanandthroughcrosssection.
2. Thefoundationmustbebasedonhardground.
3. Theelementstoresistagainstthehorizontalforcesmustbeutilisedsoasnottogenerateastraindeformation.
4. Thestructureofthebuildingshouldbesimpleandexplicitindynamicterms.
EnvironmentalRisks:Earthquakes 103
The undesirable features of strengthening/reinforcing
may be corrected by governments during the planning
stages.Incasethegovernmentestablishesalegaldimen-
sion which favours the nation, the differing opinions of
flat owners (in apartment buildings) may be synthesised
inasingleview.Thefinancialsupportandincentivesfor
thoseundertakingbuildingstrengtheningwillpreventthe
financialburdenfallingonindividuals;thisinturn,when
considered in terms of the postearthquake losses of the
country, means a considerable income for the govern-
ment. Also it is possible to change the publics negative
image of strengthened buildings to a positive one by
makinguseoftrainingandthemedia.
In the planning before an earthquake (preearthquake
planning),analysisofthepresentsituationofthecountry,
the risks involved, and the significance of sensitive con-
cernsmustbeperformed,andthepossiblescenariosafter
an earthquake should be considered accordingly. The
present situation includes geographical data, infrastruc-
ture, and superstructure data (communications, sewage
system,urbancomposition,populationdata,etc.),organi-
sationsandbodiesinvolvedindealingwithearthquakes,
and their respective coordination. The strong principles
and designs formed through such steps will reduce the
risksofdamagefollowinganearthquake.
In addition, the risk analysis undertaken based on
previousearthquakeinformationisimportantforthefor-
mationanddevelopmentofsettlements.Itisimportantto
establish the action priorities in the pre- and postearth-
quakestages.Allthesebasic datawillenableearthquake
scenariostobecreatedmoreaccurately,thusresultingin
areductioninthedamagefromanearthquake.
It is necessary to draw up preearthquake and after-
earthquake action plans for those geographical areas
where there is danger of earthquakes. Each country
should handle its own planning decisions according to
its own sociocultural structure. Precautions to be taken
before the possibility of an earthquake come within the
area of risk management, and risk management means
damage limitation. On the other hand, action planning
to be executed after an earthquake is disaster manage-
ment. Within this context, disaster management means
damageclearance.
Theearthquakeriskshouldbemanagedonbothsingle
structureandsettlementscales.Eachcountrymusthavea
national earthquake directive including rules for con-
struction. The directives must be regularly updated to
take into account changing requirements and technolo-
gies.Allstructuresmustbebuiltaccordingtothenational
directive concerning the ground conditions and earth-
quakeplanningmeasures.
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