Chapter 4 C

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Overview
History
1969 – A. Cornell BSSA paper
Rapid development since that time

Overview
Deterministic (DSHA)
Assumes a single “scenario”
Select a single magnitude, M Ground
Ground
Select a single distance, R motion
motion
Assume effects due to M, R parameters
parameters
Probabilistic (PSHA)
Assumes many scenarios
Consider all magnitudes Ground
Ground
Consider all distances motion
motion
Consider all effects parameters
parameters
1
Overview
Why?
Why? Because
Becausewe we don’t
don’tknow
knowwhenwhen
earthquakes will occur, we don’t
earthquakes will occur, we don’t
know
knowwhere
wherethey
theywill
willoccur,
occur,and
andwe
we
don’t know how big they will
don’t know how big they will be be
Probabilistic (PSHA)
Assumes many scenarios
Consider all magnitudes Ground
Ground
Consider all distances motion
motion
Consider all effects parameters
parameters
Consists of four primary steps:

1. Identification and characterization of all sources
2. Characterization of seismicity of each source
3. Determination of motions from each source
4. Probabilistic calculations
PSHA
PSHAcharacterizes
characterizesuncertainty
uncertaintyin in
location,
location, size,
size,frequency,
frequency, and
and effects
effects
of
ofearthquakes,
earthquakes,and andcombines
combinesall all of
of
them to compute probabilities
them to compute probabilities of of
different
different levels
levels of
of ground
ground shaking
shaking
2
Uncertainty in source-site distance
Need to specify distance measure

Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship
Vertical
VerticalFaults
Faults
rjb
rrup
rseis Seismogenic
depth
rhypo

Need to specify distance measure

Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship
Dipping
DippingFaults
Faults
rjb=0 rjb
rseis
rseis & rrup
rrup rhypo
rhypo
3
Where on fault is rupture most likely to occur?
Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
on whererupture
where rupture
occurs
occurs

Where is rupture most likely to occur? We don’t know
Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
onwhere
whererupture
rupture
occurs
occurs
4
Approach: Assume equal likelihood at any point

Characterize uncertainty probabilistically
rmin
rmax fR(r)
rmin rmax r
pdf
pdffor
forsource-
source-
site distance
site distance

Two practical ways to determine fR(r)

Draw
Drawseries
seriesof
of
concentric
concentriccircles
circles
with
withequal
equalradius
radius
rmin
increment
increment
Measure
Measurelength
lengthof
offault,
fault,
rmax LLi,,between each pair
i between each pair
of
ofadjacent
adjacentcircles
circles
Assign
Assignweight
weightequal
equalto
to
LLi/L to each
i/L to each
corresponding
corresponding
distance
distance
5
Two practical ways to determine fR(r)
Divide
Divideentire
entirefault
faultinto
into
equal
equallength
lengthsegments
segments
rmin
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
site
siteto
tocenter
centerof
ofeach
each
rmax segment
segment
Create
Createhistogram
histogramof of
Linear source source-site
source-sitedistance.
distance.
Accuracy
Accuracyincreases
increases
with
withincreasing
increasing
number
numberof ofsegments
segments

Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
area elements
area elements
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
Areal Source center
center ofeach
of eachelement
element
Create
Createhistogram
histogramofof
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance
6
Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
volume
volumeelements
elements
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
center
centerof
ofeach
eachelement
element
Create
Createhistogram
histogramofof
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance

Unequal
Unequalelement
elementareas?
areas?
Create
Createhistogram
histogramusing
using
weighting
weightingfactors
factors--weight
weight
according
accordingtotofraction
fractionof
oftotal
total
source area
source area
7
Quick
Quickvisualization
visualizationof
ofpdf?
pdf?
Use
Useconcentric
concentriccircle
circle
approach
approach--lets
letsyou
you“see”
“see”
basic
basicshape
shapeofofpdf
pdfquickly
quickly

Characterization of maximum magnitude
Determination of Mmax - same as for DSHA

Empirical correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
“Theoretical” determination
Slip rate correlations
Also
Also need
need to
to know
know
distribution
distribution ofmagnitudes
of magnitudes
8
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Given source can produce different earthquakes

Low magnitude - often
Large magnitude - rare
Gutenberg-Richter
Southern California earthquake data - many faults
Counted number of earthquakes exceeding different
magnitude levels over period of many years

NM log NM
M M
9
log λM
Mean
Mean annual
annual rate
rate
of exceedance
of exceedance
λλMM ==NNMM // TT
M

log λM
0.01 100 yrs
Return
Return period
period
(recurrence
(recurrenceinterval)
interval) 0.001 1000 yrs
log TR
TTR ==11//λλM M
R M
10
log λM
10a
b
Gutenberg-Richter
Gutenberg-Richter
Recurrence
Recurrence Law
Law
log TR
logλλMM==aa --bM
log bM 0 M

Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law
log λM = a - bM
Implies that earthquake magnitudes are

exponentially distributed (exponential pdf)
Can also be written as
ln λM = α - βM
11
Then
λM = 10a - bM = exp[α - βM]
where α = 2.303a and β = 2.303b.
For an exponential distribution,
fM(m) = β e-β m

Neglecting events below minimum magnitude, mo
λm = ν exp[α - β(m - mo)] m > mo
where ν = exp[α - β mo].
Then,
fM(m) = β e-β (m-mo)
12
For worldwide data (Circumpacific belt),
log λm = 7.93 - 0.96M
M=6 λm = 148 /yr TR = 0.0067 yr

M=7 λm = 16.2 TR = 0.062
M=8 λm = 1.78 TR = 0.562
M = 12 λm = 0.437 TR = 2.29
M
M>>12
12 every
everytwo
two years?
years?

Every source has some maximum magnitude

Distribution must be modified to account for Mmax
Bounded G-R recurrence law
exp[ − β ( m − m o )] − exp[ − β ( m max − m o )]

λm =ν
1 − exp[ − β ( m max − m o )]
13
log λhas
Every source m some maximum
Bounded G-R magnitude
Recurrence Law
Distribution must be modified to account for Mmax
Bounded G-R recurrence law
exp[ − β ( m − m o )] − exp[ − β ( m max − m o )]

λm =ν
1 − exp[ − β ( m max − m o )]
Mmax M

Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Law
Paleoseismic investigations
•Show similar displacements in each earthquake
•Inividual faults produce characteristic earthquakes
•Characteristic earthquake occur at or near Mmax
•Could be caused by geologic constraints
•More research, field observations needed
14
log λm
Characteristic
Seismicity data Earthquake
Recurrence
Law
Geologic data
Mmax M

Predictive relationships
Standard error
log λ - use to evaluate conditional probability
m
ln Y P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]
Y = Y*
ln Y
M = M*
R = R* log R
Mmax M
15
Predictive relationships
Standard error - use to evaluate conditional probability
ln Y
P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]
ln Y
Y = Y*
M = M*
R = R* log R

Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process - describes number of occurrences of an

event during a given time interval or spatial region.
1. The number of occurrences in one time interval are

independent of the number that occur in any other
time interval.
2. Probability of occurrence in a very short time interval is
proportional to length of interval.
3. Probability of more than one occurrence in a very short
time interval is negligible.
16
Poisson process
µ n e−µ
P [N = n ] =
n!
where n is the number of occurrences and µ is the

average number of occurrences in the time interval
of interest.

Poisson process
Letting µ = λt
( λ t )n e − λt
P [N = n ] =
n!
Then
P[N ≥ 0] = P[N = 1] + P[N = 2] + P[N = 3] + ... + P[n = ∞]
= 1 − P [N = 0 ]
−λt
= 1 − e
17
Poisson process
−λt
P = 1 − e
Consider an event that occurs, on average, every

1,000 yrs. What is the probability it will occur at
least once in a 100 yr period?
λ = 1/1000 = 0.001
P = 1 - exp[-(0.001)(100)] = 0.0952

What is the probability it will occur at least once in

a 1,000 yr period?
P = 1 - exp[-(0.001)(1000)] = 0.632
Solving for λ,
ln(1 − p)
λ=−
t
18
Then, the annual rate of exceedance for an event

with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs is
ln(1 − 0.1)
λ=− = 0.0021
50
The corresponding return period is TR = 1/λ = 475 yrs.
For 2% in 50 yrs, λ = 0.000404/yr TR = 2475 yrs

Summary of uncertainties
Location fR(r) Source-site

Source-sitedistance
distancepdf
pdf
Size fM(m) Magnitude

Magnitudepdf
pdf
Effects P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

Attenuation
Attenuation
Timing P = 1 - e-λt relationship
relationship
including
including
standard
standarderror
error
Poisson
Poissonmodel
model
19
Combining uncertainties - probability computations
U U U
P[A] = P[A B1] + P[A B2] + … + P[A BN]
P[A] = P[A|B1]P[B1] + P[A|B2]P[B2] + … + P[A|BN]P[BN]
B1 B2 B3 Total
Total
Probability
Probability
A Theorem
Theorem
B5
B4

Applying total probability theorem,
P [Y > y *] = P [Y > y * | X]P [ X] = ∫ P [Y > y * | X] f X ( X)dx
where X is a vector of parameters.
We assume that M and R are the most important

parameters and that they are independent. Then,
P [Y > y *] = ∫ ∫ P [Y > y * | m , r ] f M (m ) f R ( r ) dmdr
20
P [Y > y *] = ∫ ∫ P [Y > y * | m , r ] f M (m ) f R ( r ) dmdr
Above equation gives the probability that y* will be

exceeded if an earthquake occurs. Can convert
probability to annual rate of exceedance by multiplying
probability by annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes.
λ y * = ν ∫ ∫ P [Y > y * | m , r ] f M ( m ) f R ( r )dmdr
where ν = exp[α - βmo]

If the site of interest is subjected to shaking from more

than one site (say Ns sites), then
Ns
λ y * = ∑ ν i ∫ ∫ P [Y > y * | m, r ] f Mi (m ) f Ri (r )dmdr
i =1
For realistic cases, pdfs for M and R are too complicated

to integrate analytically. Therefore, we do it numerically.
21
Dividing the range of possible magnitudes and distances

into NM and NR increments, respectively
NS N M N R
λ y * = ∑ ∑ ∑ ν i ∫ ∫ P[Y > y * | m j , r k ] f Mi (m j ) f Ri (r k )∆m∆r
i =1 j =1 k =1
This expression can be written, equivalently, as
NS NM NR
λ y * = ∑ ∑ ∑ ν i ∫ ∫ P[Y > y * | m j , r k ]P[M = m j ]P[R = r k ]
i =1 j =1 k =1

What does it mean? All

Allpossible
possibledistances
distancesare
are
considered
considered -contribution
- contributionof
of
each
eachisisweighted
weightedby byits
its
probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence
NS NM NR
λ y * = ∑ ∑ ∑ ν i ∫ ∫ P[Y > y * | m j , r k ]P[M = m j ]P[R = r k ]
i =1 j =1 k =1
All All
Allpossible
possiblemagnitudes
magnitudesareare
Allsites
sitesare
are
considered considered
considered -contribution
- contributionof
of
considered All
Allpossible
possibleeffects
effectsare
are each
eachisisweighted
weightedby byits
its
considered
considered -each
- eachweighted
weighted probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence
by
byits
itsconditional
conditionalprobability
probability
of occurrence
of occurrence
22
NM x NR possible combinations
Each produces some probability of exceeding y*
Must compute P[Y > y*|M=mj,R=rk] for all mj, rk
rNR
r1
m1 m2 m3 mNM

Compute conditional probability for each element on grid

Enter in matrix (spreadsheet cell)
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]

ln Y
M=m2
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
ln Y
Y = y*
r1 r2 log R
r3
rN
23
“Build” hazard by:
computing conditional probability for each element
multiplying conditional probability by P[mj], P[rk], νi
Repeat for each source - place values in same cells
rNR
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]
r1
m1 m2 m3 mNM

When complete (all cells filled for all sources),
Sum all λ-values for that value of y* λy*
rNR
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]
r1
m1 m2 m3 mNM
24
Choose new value of y*

Repeat entire process
Develop pairs of (y*, λy*) points Plot
Seismic
Hazard
rNR Curve
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
log λy*
log TR
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]
r1
m1 m2 m3 y* mNM

Seismic hazard
curve shows the
mean annual rate of
log λamax
exceedance of a
log λy*
log TR
log TR
particular ground
motion parameter. A
seismic hazard curve
is the ultimate result
of a PSHA.
amax y*
25
Using seismic hazard curves
Probability of exceeding
amax = 0.30g in a 50 yr
period?
log λamax
P = 1 - e-λt
log TR
= 1 - exp[-(0.001)(50)]
= 0.049 = 4.9%
In a 500 yr period?
0.001
P = 0.393 = 39.3%
amax=0.30g

What peak acceleration has a

10% probability of being
exceeded in a 50 yr period?
log λamax
10% in 50 yrs: λ = 0.0021

log TR
or
TR = 475 yrs
0.0021 475 yrs
Use seismic hazard curve
to find amax value
corresponding to
λ = 0.0021
amax=0.21g
26
Contribution of sources
Total Can break λ-values down

log λamax
into contributions from

each source
log TR
2 Plot seismic hazard
1 curves for each source
and total seismic
hazard curve (equal to
3 sum of source curves)
Curves may not be
parallel, may cross
amax Shows which source(s)
most important

Can develop seismic hazard

curves for different ground
motion parameters
log λamax
Peak acceleration
Spectral accelerations
log TR
Other
Choose desired λ-value
Read corresponding
parameter values from
seismic hazard curves
amax, Sa
27
Can develop seismic hazard

curves for different ground
motion parameters
log λamax
Peak acceleration
Spectral accelerations
log TR
Other
Choose desired λ-value
Read corresponding
parameter values from
seismic hazard curves
amax, Sa
0.1
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs
Crustal
Peak
Peakacceleration
acceleration
0.01
λamax
Intraplate
0.001
Interplate
0.0001
28
0.1
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs
SSa(T = 3 sec)
a(T = 3 sec)
0.01 Crustal
λamax Intraplate
0.001
Interplate
0.0001

Uniform hazard spectrum (UHS)
Find spectral acceleration values for different periods at constant λ

All Sa values have same λ-value same probability of exceedance
Sa
Uniform
Uniform
Hazard
Hazard
Spectrum
Spectrum
29
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Common question:
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

25 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 Total hazard includes
50 km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 contributions from all
75 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02 combinations of M & R.
100 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02
125 km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01
150 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00
175 km 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00
200 km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Common question:
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

25 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 Total hazard includes
50 km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 contributions from all
75 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02 combinations of M & R.
100 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02
Break hazard down into
125 km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01
contributions to “see
150 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 where hazard is coming
175 km 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 from.”
200 km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 M=7.0 at R=75 km
30
USGS disaggregations
Seattle,
Seattle,WA
WA
2%
2%inin50
50yrs
yrs
(T
(TR = 2475yrs)
= 2475 yrs)
R
SSa(T = 0.2 sec)

a(T = 0.2 sec)

Olympia,
Olympia,WA
WA
2%
2%inin50
50yrs
yrs
(T
(TR = 2475yrs)
= 2475 yrs)
R
SSa(T = 0.2 sec)

a(T = 0.2 sec)
31
Olympia,
Olympia,WA
WA
2%
2%inin50
50yrs
yrs
(T
(TR = 2475yrs)
= 2475 yrs)
R
SSa(T = 1.0 sec)

a(T = 1.0 sec)

Another disaggregation parameter

For
Forlow
lowy*, mostεε
y*,most
ln y * − ln y values
values willbe
will benegative
negative
ε =
σ ln y
For
Forhigh
highy*, mostεε
y*,most
ε = -1.6 values
values willbe
will bepositive
positive
and large
and large
ln Y M=m ε = -0.8
2
ε = 1.2 ε = 2.2
ln Y
Y = y*
r1 r2 log R
r3
rN
32
Logic tree methods
Not all uncertainty can be described by probability

distributions
Most appropriate model may not be clear

• Attenuation relationship
• Magnitude distribution
• etc.
Experts may disagree on model parameters

• Fault segmentation
• Maximum magnitude
• etc.

Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
Mmax
Model Distribution
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
33
Logic tree methods
Mmax
Model Distribution
7.0 (0.2)
Sum
Sumof
ofweighting
weightingfactors
factors G-R 7.2 (0.6)
coming
coming outof
out ofeach
eachnode
node (0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
must
mustequal
equal1.0
1.0 BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)

Logic tree methods
Mmax
Model Distribution
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
A&S
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
34
Logic tree methods
Model
Mmax w
Distribution
7.0 (0.2) 0.07
G-R 7.2 (0.6) 0.21
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2) 0.07
BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2) 0.03
Char. 7.2 (0.6) 0.09
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2) 0.03
7.0 (0.2) 0.07
Final
Finalvalue
valueofofYYis
is G-R 7.2 (0.6) 0.21
obtained
obtained asas (0.7) 7.5 (0.2) 0.07
weighted
weightedaverage
averageof of A&S
all
all values givenby
values given by (0.5) 7.0 (0.2) 0.03
terminal
terminalbranches
branchesof of Char. 7.2 (0.6) 0.09
logic tree
logic tree (0.3) 7.5 (0.2) 0.03

Logic tree methods
Recent PSHA logic tree included:
Cascadia interplate
2 attenuation relationships
2 updip boundaries
3 downdip boundaries
2 return periods
4 segmentation models
2 maximum magnitude approaches
192 terminal branches
35
Logic tree methods
Cascadia intraplate
2 intraslab geometries
3 maximum magnitudes
2 a-values
2 b-values

Logic tree methods
Seattle Fault and Puget Sound Fault

3 activity states
2 recurrence models
2 slip rates
72 terminal branches for Seattle Fault
72 terminal branches for Puget Sound Fault
36
Logic tree methods
Crustal areal source zones

7 source zones
2 recurrence models
3 source depths
Total
Total PSHA
PSHArequired
requiredanalysis
analysis of
of 612
612 combinations
combinations
Code Implications
UBC - 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs
37
Code Implications
AASHTO - 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs ???
Code Implications
AASHTO - 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs ???
0.1
At
At100
100yrs,
yrs,interplate
interplate
events
events arenot
are not
particularly
particularlyimportant.
important.
(~10%
(~10%ofoftotal
totalhazard).
hazard).
0.01 100 yrs - total
At
At2,500
2,500yrs,
yrs,they
theybecome
become
λamax very
very important(~50%
important (~50%of
of
Interplate contribution total hazard).
total hazard).
0.001
2500 yrs - total

Interplate contribution
Interplate
0.0001
38

Chapter 4 C

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Chapter 4 C

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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Consists of four primary steps:

Need to specify distance measure

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Need to specify distance measure

Where on fault is rupture most likely to occur?

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Where is rupture most likely to occur? We don’t know

Approach: Assume equal likelihood at any point

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Two practical ways to determine fR(r)

Two practical ways to determine fR(r)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Determination of Mmax - same as for DSHA

Given source can produce different earthquakes

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

0.01 100 yrs

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law

Implies that earthquake magnitudes are

Can also be written as

λM = 10a - bM = exp[α - βM]

where α = 2.303a and β = 2.303b.

For an exponential distribution,

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Neglecting events below minimum magnitude, mo

λm = ν exp[α - β(m - mo)] m > mo

where ν = exp[α - β mo].

fM(m) = β e-β (m-mo)

For worldwide data (Circumpacific belt),

log λm = 7.93 - 0.96M

M=6 λm = 148 /yr TR = 0.0067 yr

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Every source has some maximum magnitude

exp[ − β ( m − m o )] − exp[ − β ( m max − m o )]

exp[ − β ( m − m o )] − exp[ − β ( m max − m o )]

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Law

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

ln Y P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

Standard error - use to evaluate conditional probability

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Poisson process - describes number of occurrences of an

1. The number of occurrences in one time interval are

where n is the number of occurrences and µ is the

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Consider an event that occurs, on average, every

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

What is the probability it will occur at least once in

Then, the annual rate of exceedance for an event

The corresponding return period is TR = 1/λ = 475 yrs.

For 2% in 50 yrs, λ = 0.000404/yr TR = 2475 yrs

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Location fR(r) Source-site

Size fM(m) Magnitude

Effects P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

P[A] = P[A|B1]P[B1] + P[A|B2]P[B2] + … + P[A|BN]P[BN]

ln Y P[Y > Y| M=M, R=R*]

Effects P[Y > Y| M=M, R=R*]

P [Y > y ] = P [Y > y | X]P [ X] = ∫ P [Y > y * | X] f X ( X)dx

P [Y > y ] = ∫ ∫ P [Y > y | m , r ] f M (m ) f R ( r ) dmdr

P [Y > y ] = ∫ ∫ P [Y > y | m , r ] f M (m ) f R ( r ) dmdr