A Users Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It

1. Climate Catastrophe
What is climate change? Is it a product of natural cyclical variations in the Earths
ecological systems, or is it a consequence of human activities? What are the implications of
climate change for the international system? How serious are the ramifications of climate
change for the continuity of modern industrial civilization? This chapter egins y
confronting the ma!or pulic"media deates regarding the causality of climate change,
reviewing the main arguments that challenge the idea that contemporary gloal warming is
due to fossil fuel emissions and therefore human"induced #anthropogenic$% The relevant
scientific literature is e&plored to discern whether we can e sure that climate change is
happening, and why%
I then e&plore the implications of climate change for national security, finding that a variety
of Western security agencies recognize that climate change will drastically alter the gloal
security landscape for the foreseeale future without significant preventive action% The focus
of this analysis is not to list the specific conflicts that might arise #an e&ercise performed
frequently elsewhere$,
'
ut to assess the overarching ramifications of gloal warming for the
ability of modern industrial civilization in its current form to survive% The analysis then
e&tends to a critical e&amination of the conventional narrative of the rate of gloal warming
as descried y the (nited )ations Intergovernment *anel on +limate +hange #I*++$, and as
generally endorsed y Western states% I argue that cutting"edge scientific research provides
compelling evidence that the current rate of gloal warming is far faster, and igger, than the
() models predicted% Integrating the impact of positive feedac,s in the Earths climate
systems, suggests the proaility of a worst"case climate scenario well efore the end of the
-'
st
century . unless significant preventive and mitigating actions are ta,en%
/ut such actions must go far eyond the mere question of reducing emissions% Emissions
reductions have largely een addressed in a socio"political and economic vacuum, divorced
from the real"world systemic changes required to drastically reduce energy consumption in
general, and utilise cleaner and more energy"efficient technologies ased on renewale
energies in particular% 0et this inattention to the gloal systemic origins of the ecological
crisis is part of a long"term trend, evidenced y the fact that policyma,ers have largely
ignored several decades of dire warnings issued y the worlds leading climate and
environmental scientists% Therefore, for civilization to survive eyond the -'
st
century will
require fundamental global systemic change at the very heart of modern industrial social
relations% 1nly in the conte&t of such systemic change can the prospect of a post"caron
civilization that is no longer dependent on the unrelenting e&ploitation of hydrocaron
energies e realized%
1.1 A Debate Resolved? Current Climate Change is Unequivocally
Anthropogenic
The Scientific Consensus
Human"emissions generated climate change is perhaps the most prominent gloal crisis in
pulic consciousness . its e&istence is now readily ac,nowledged y most governments
including the (nited 2tates, even if reluctantly, and it is generally recognized that urgent
steps are required to prevent the prospect of mass e&tinction% What is missing from the
official discourse on climate, however, is not simply an ac,nowledgement of the real e&tent
and gravity of the civilizational catastrophe it poses, ut the corresponding measures required
to prevent or avert such catastrophe%

Figure Global Temperature Land-Ocean Index. Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies !!
"anuar# $%%&'
2ince '344 there has een an appro&imately 4%5 degree +elsius #+$ rise in gloal average
temperature #see 6igure '$% /ut as 6igure - depicts, this increase cannot e accounted for y
natural variations of solar and volcanic activity, nor y human"induced sulphate emissions,
which act to reduce gloal temperature% It is only y including the impact of human"induced
caron dio&ide #+1
-
$ emissions that climate models are ale to accurately simulate the rise in
gloal temperatures over the previous century of industrial civilization%
Figure (limate ()ange Attribution. Source: Stanford Solar (entre* Stanford +ni,ersit# $%%&'
Industrial civilization derives almost all its energy from the urning of fossil fuels, pumping
caron dio&ide into the atmosphere . with the e&ception of appro&imately -"7 per cent from
renewale and nuclear sources% The emissions of primarily +1
-
. ut also nitrous o&ide,
methane, chlorofluorocarons, among other greenhouse gases . from the industries that drive
our economies and sustain our infrastructures, are the main engine of gloal warming in the
last few decades% This does not mean that all climate change is solely due to human"induced
+1
-
emissions% 2cientists ac,nowledge that there are many other factors involved in climate
change, such as solar activity, as well as periodic changes in the Earths orit% 0et they have
overwhelmingly confirmed that these are not the primary factors currently driving gloal
warming%
8loal warming s,eptics often point to the fact that human"induced +1
-
emissions are tiny
compared to natural emissions from ocean and vegetation% What they forget, however, is that
natural emissions are alanced y natural asorptions y ocean and vegetation% This natural
alance has ecome increasingly unstale due to additional +1
-
emissions from human
industrial activities% In terms of natural emissions, consumption of vegetation y animals and
microes accounts for aout --4 gigatonnes of +1
-
per year% 9espiration y vegetation emits
around --4 8igatonnes #8t$% The ocean releases aout 774 8t% This totals to aout 554 8t of
natural emissions% In terms of natural absorptions, land plants asor aout ::4 8t of caron
per year and the ocean asors aout 774 8t, again roughly totaling at aout 554 8t% This
emission"asorption parity #554 8t released and 554 asored$ ensures that natural
atmospheric +1
-
levels remain in overall alance even as emissions and asorptions fluctuate
over time% In comparison human emissions are only around -;%: 8t per year% The prolem is
that this seemingly small addition of +1
-
into the atmosphere y industrialization cannot be
absorbed by the planet% 1nly aout :4 per cent is actually asored, largely y oceans,
leaving ;4 per cent in the atmosphere% Worse still, the oceans are increasingly losing their
aility to asor +1
-
, with the 2outhern 1cean and )orth <tlantic oth approaching
saturation point in -445% This means that with time, unprecedented concentrations of +1
-
are
accumulating in the Earths atmosphere% =ust how unprecedented can e gauged y a simple
e&ample . while a natural change of '44 parts per million #ppm$ ta,es etween >,444 and
-4,444 years, the recent increase of '44 ppm too, only '-4 years%
-
The ma!ority of scientific studies show that climate sensitivity to +1
-
emissions is high, or
in other words that +1
-
emissions induce large increases in gloal temperature% ?espite the
media images of a raging deate among climate scientists, the fundamentals are agreed on .
the direct connection etween +1
-
and gloal temperatures has een empirically oserved y
analysis of ice cores, paleoclimate records, oservations of ocean heat upta,e, and
temperature responses to the solar cycle, among other data% The empirically"focused studies
including pulished research from the '334s to -443, show that douled +1
-
emissions
would contriute to warming at least within the range of '%: to : degrees +%
7
The origins of current climate change are therefore no longer a matter of serious scientific
deate% The landmar, declaration came in -445, when the (nited )ations Intergovernmental
*anel on +limate +hange #I*++$ pulished its 6ourth <ssessment 9eport, ased on a meta"
analysis of the scientific literature, pro!ecting the rise in temperatures due to gloal warming
y ;44 scientists from :4 countries, peer"reviewed y ;44 more meteorologists% The report
confirmed that human"induced gloal warming is @unequivocallyA happening, and that the
proaility that climate change was due to human +1
-
emissions is over 34 per cent%
:

0et the waters have een increasingly muddied y the perception that there is no real
scientific consensus aout climate change . either that gloal warming is not happening, or
that if it is, it has little or nothing to do with human activities% In fact, this self"styled
Bs,eptical agenda has revolved around a networ, of ideological and advocacy organizations
funded largely y leading players in the fossil fuel industry% /etween '33C and -44>,
E&&onDoil has funneled aout E'; million to such groups with the tas, of manufacturing
uncertainty aout even the most indisputale scientific evidence% This has not only generated
considerale confusion in the media aout climate change, it has also influenced (2
government policy%
>
It is therefore important to recognize that claims y s,eptics that there is no scientific
consensus on climate change are deeply misleading% The scientific consensus can e
discerned not only from the I*++, ut from other meta"analyses of the peer"reviewed
literature% In -44:, (2 geoscientist )aomi 1res,es, *rofessor of History and 2cience 2tudies
at the (niversity of +alifornia, 2an ?iego, conducted a survey of the 3-C peer"reviewed
scientific papers on gloal climate change from '337 to -447% 2he found that 5> per cent
e&plicitly or implicitly accepted the consensus view, while -> per cent too, no position and
dealt purely with methods or paleoclimateF
@9emar,aly, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position%%% Dany details
aout climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for
continued research to provide a etter asis for understanding climate dynamics% The
question of what to do aout climate change is also still open% /ut there is a scientific
consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change% +limate scientists have
repeatedly tried to ma,e this clear% It is time for the rest of us to listen%A
;
Efforts to disprove the e&istence of this scientific consensus remain poor% 6or instance,
although social anthropologist /enny *eisner attempted to refute 1res,es findings in his
own survey of the same peer"reviewed papers, he managed to flag"up only 7: studies which
he claimed raised douts aout anthropogenic gloal warming% This is a tiny fraction . only
7%; per cent . of the scientific papers from this period% +lose inspection of the actual astracts
shows not only that the vast ma!ority do not re!ect the scientific consensus at all, ut that
those few which can e interpreted as casting some dout were not actually peer"reviewed%
5

In the end, *eisner himself was forced to retract his criticismsF @1nly few astracts e&plicitly
re!ect or dout the <8W #anthropogenic gloal warming$ consensus which is why I have
pulicly withdrawn this point of my critiqueG I do not thin, anyone is questioning that we
are in a period of gloal warming% )either do I dout that the overwhelming ma!ority of
climatologists is agreed that the current warming period is mostly due to human impact%A
C

Indeed, when pressed to clarify which specific papers he thought e&pressed dout aout
anthropogenic climate change, he was ale only to identify one . which was not peer"
reviewed%
3
1utside the realms of scientific research, there have een several efforts y vested political
interests to demonstrate not only a lac, of scientific consensus aout anthropogenic climate
change, ut further that an alternative scientific consensus undermines it% In ?ecemer -445,
2enator =ames Inhofe, the ran,ing minority memer of the (2 2enate +ommittee on
Environment and *ulic Wor,s, released a list of over :44 @prominent scientistsA including
@current and former participants in the () I*++A who allegedly @disputed man"made gloal
warming claimsA that year%
'4
His list was widely pulicized y the media% 0et 2enator Inhofe
has y the time of writing received at least a million dollars in campaign contriutions from
individuals and companies lin,ed to the (2 oil and gas industry%
''
?etailed analysis of
Inhofes list of scientists and their actual research on climate change reveals other aw,ward
factsF '$ C: individuals listed had either ta,en money from, or were connected to fossil fuel
industries or thin,"tan,s founded y themH -$ :: are television weathermenH 7$ -4 are
economistsH :$ 54 simply have no e&pertise or qualifications in climate scienceH >$ increasing
numers of scientists cited as Bman"made climate s,eptics in the 2enate report have since
een found to support anthropogenic climate change and despite repeated efforts to dissociate
themselves from the report, continue to remain on the list%
'-
E&amples of flagrant misrepresentation in the report are rife% 1n the list, for instance, is
@prominent scientistA 9ay Iurzweil . not a scientist ut an inventor% Worse, Iurzweil is not
even a gloal warming s,eptic% 9ather, he argued that <l 8ores arguments aout climate
change were @ludicrousA for failing to account for the potential of new technologies% F @G
nanotechnology will eliminate the need for fossil fuels within -4 years %%% I thin, gloal
warming is real ut it has een modest thus far%A
'7
Iurzweil, in other words, is not a climate
scientist, accepts the climate science ehind gloal warming, ut only elieves that continued
warming is preventale due to technological progress% <nother e&ample of a @prominent
scientistA in the report is 2teve /as,erville, a @+/2 +hicago affiliateA and @+hief
DeteorologistA, who e&pressed @s,epticismA aout a consensus on man"made gloal
warming% 0et /as,ervilles alleged qualifications in climate science amount only to a
+ertificate in /roadcast Deteorology from Dississippi 2tate (niversity%
':
1ther e&amples
includeF Thomas 9ing, who has a degree in chemical engineering from +ase Western 9eserve
(niversity, with no peer"reviewed climate science pulications to his nameH 8eorge
Waldenerger, not a climate scientist ut a meteorologist, who has repeatedly requested to e
removed from the Inhofe list reiterating his support for anthropogenic climate change, ut
who still remains on the listH 8wyn *rins and 2teve 9ayner, real climate scientists who,
however, are misrepresented as s,eptics when in fact they stateF @We face a prolem of
anthropogenic climate change, ut the Iyoto *rotocol of '335 has failed to tac,le itAH and so
on% These and numerous other e&amples are discussed at length in an ongoing regular
column, @The BInhofe :44 2,eptic of the ?ayA, y <ndrew ?essler, a *rofessor of
<tmospheric 2ciences at Te&as < J D (niversity, where he continues to demonstrate the
fraudulent nature of Inhofes list%
'>

(nfortunately, this did not stop 2enator Inhofe from releasing an updated list a year later in
?ecemer -44C, including the original :44, of now @more than ;>4 international scientistsA
who @dissent over man"made gloal warming claims%A
';
It was not long efore the crediility
of this list was also undermined% /y way of e&ample, on Inhofes new list is I*++ scientist
Erich 9oec,ner, a renowned climate modeler at the Da& *lanc, Institute% 9oec,ner is cited in
the new report as saying that there are ,in,s in climate models, and telling NatureF @It is
possile that all of them are wrongA . supposedly implying that he is questioning the validity
of anthropogenic models of climate change in general% However, as the New Republic
reportedF
@/ut hes notK 9oec,ner was referring to the I*++s emissions scenarios, which involve
assumptions aout the rate of growth of greenhouse"gas emissionsG We already ,now that
emissions are growing faster than the I*++s worst"case scenario, and thats ad news, not
good%
<nyway, 9oec,ners as far as you get from a BdissenterG 9oec,ner is quoted in multiple
news stories sounding downright alarmist aout the consequences of man"made warming%
BHumans have had a large one"of"a",ind influence on the climate%%% Weather situations in
which e&treme floods occur will increase, he informed ?eutsche Welle in -44:% B1ur
research pointed to rapid gloal warming and the shifting of climate zones, he told </+
)ews in -44>% Luite the heretic, that one%A
'5
The pattern was the sameF listing people who are not e&perts on climate science, and who
lac, peer"reviewed pulications in the fieldH including non"scientistsH and misrepresenting
estalished climate scientists who actually do accept man"made gloal warming%
'C
Indeed, it
is instructive to compare Inhofes fraudulent list of @;>4A to the official warning issued y the
worlds largest society of Earth scientists, the <merican 8eophysical (nion, with a
membership of 50,000 scientists, agreeing thatF
@The Earths climate is now clearly out of alance and is warming% Dany components of
the climate system . including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the
e&tent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distriution of precipitation, and
the length of seasons . are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are
est e&plained y the increased atmospheric aundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols
generated y human activity during the -4th century%A
'3
(nsurprisingly, 2enator Inhofe was also one of the first to !ump on the -443 climate email
andwagon, when thousands of emails over a period of more than ten years from the
(niversity of East <nglias +limatic 9esearch (nit were otained y hac,ers% 1ne of the
emails most cited y Bs,eptics, y head of the (nit, *rofessor *hil =ones, readsF @Ive !ust
completed Di,es )ature tric, of adding in the real temps to each series for the last -4 years
#ie from '3C' onwards$ amd from '3;' for Ieiths to hide the decline%A
-4
Inhofes press log
commented that the email @appears to show several scientists eager to present a particular
viewpoint . that anthropogenic emissions are largely responsile for gloal warming . even
when the data showed something different%A
-'
/ut the (nion of +oncerned 2cientists #(+2$,
analyzing this and other lea,ed emails, e&plained the language and scientific conte&t in detailF
@=ones is tal,ing aout how scientists compare temperature data from thermometers with
temperature data derived from tree rings% +omparing that data allows scientists to derive
past temperature data for several centuries efore accurate thermometer measurements
were availale% The gloal average surface temperature since 'CC4 is ased on
thermometer and satellite temperature measurements%%%
In some parts of the world, tree rings are a good sustitute for temperature record% Trees
form a ring of new growth every growing season% 8enerally, warmer temperatures produce
thic,er tree rings, while colder temperatures produce thinner ones% 1ther factors, such as
precipitation, soil properties, and the trees age also can affect tree ring growth%
The Btric,, which was used in a paper pulished in '33C in the science !ournal )ature, is
to comine the older tree ring data with thermometer data% +omining the two data sets
can e difficult, and scientists are always interested in new ways to ma,e temperature
records more accurate%
Tree rings are a largely consistent source of data for the past -,444 years% /ut since the
'3;4s, scientists have noticed there are a handful of tree species in certain areas that
appear to indicate temperatures that are warmer or colder than we actually ,now they are
from direct thermometer measurement at weather stations%
BHiding the decline in this email refers to omitting data from some 2ierian trees after
'3;4% This omission was openly discussed in the latest climate science update in -445
from the I*++, so it is not Bhidden at all%
Why 2ierian trees? In the 0amal region of 2ieria, there is a small set of trees with
rings that are thinner than e&pected after '3;4 when compared with actual thermometer
measurements there% 2cientists are still trying to figure out why these trees are outliers%
2ome analyses have left out the data from these trees after '3;4 and have used
thermometer temperatures instead% Techniques li,e this help scientists reconstruct past
climate temperature records ased on the est availale data%A
<nother email from scientist Ievin Trenerth laments that @we cant account for the lac, of
warming at the momentA, descriing this as a @travestyA due to the fact that @1ur oserving
system is inadequate%A (+2 points out that he is tal,ing aout short"term internal climate
variaility, in particular the year -44C @which was cooler than scientists e&pected, ut still
among the '4 warmest years on record%A 0et another email y =ones construed y Bs,eptics
as evidence of scientists manipulating peer"review to squeeze out legitimate climate
dissenters, o!ects to a paper on solar variaility in the climate pulished in Climate
Research, and calls for scientists to oycott the !ournal until a change in editorship% 0et as
(+2 clarifiesF
@Half of the editorial oard of +limate 9esearch resigned in protest against what they
felt was a failure of the peer review process% The paper, which argued that current
warming was une&ceptional, was disputed y scientists whose wor, was cited in the paper%
Dany susequent pulications set the record straight, which demonstrates how the peer
review process over time tends to correct such lapses% 2cientists later discovered that the
paper was funded y the <merican *etroleum Institute%A
Thus, (+2 rightly concluded that whoever stole the emails @could only produce a handful
of messages that, when ta,en out of conte&t, might seem suspicious to people who are not
familiar with the intimate details of climate science%A
--

The conclusion is simpleF claims that gloal warming is not happening, or if happening has
nothing or little to do with human activities, fall outside the e&isting scientific consensus, and
often come from people with vested political or economic interests, for whom the study of
climate is outside their professional qualifications and field of e&pertise% The Bs,eptic
strategy is simpleF to misquote, quote of conte&t, andMor misrepresent the statements and
findings of real climate scientists% 0et despite their lac, of crediility, these claims and the
ad science they rest on, frequently receive widespread media coverage% /efore e&amining
the impacts of climate change, I critically review some of the most prominent Bs,eptical
approaches to anthropogenic climate change which try to deny the role of human activities,
finding them to e deeply unscientific%
Solar Activity and Climate Variation
1ne of the most common misconceptions cited y Bman"made climate s,eptics #hereafter
referred to simply as Bclimate s,eptics or Bs,eptics$ is that the 2un is the primary cause of
contemporary gloal warming% The Earths climate history does evince a close correlation
etween solar activity and gloal temperature change% <lthough the sun plays a crucial role in
climate change, scientific studies confirm that recent gloal warming on the Earth could not
e caused y solar activity% 1ne study y scientists from 6inland and 8ermany, commonly
used y climate s,eptics, concludes that the sun has een more active in the last ;4 years than
in the preceding ''>4 years% The scientists argue that @long"term climate variations are
affected y solar magnetic activity%A 0et the same study points out that the correlation
etween solar activity and temperature ceased in 195, after which gloal average
temperatures escalated despite solar activity remaining stationaryF @)ote that the most recent
warming, since around '35>, has een considered in the aove correlations% ?uring these last
74 years the solar total irradiance, solar (N irradiance and cosmic ray flu& has not shown any
significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another
source%A
-7
2imilar conclusions have een reiterated independently throughout the scientific literature%
Dore recently in -44C, a study pulished y Nature noted that @the level of solar activity
during the past 54 years is e&ceptionalA and @may indicate that the 2un has contriuted to the
unusual climate change during the twentieth century%A 0et it goes on to confirm that @solar
variaility is unli,ely to e the prime cause of the strong warming during the last three
decades%%% even under the e&treme assumption that the 2un was responsile for all the gloal
warming prior to '354, at the most 74 per cent of the strong warming since then can e of
solar origin%A
-:
<nd in -445, the !roceedings of the Royal "ociety pulished a paper
concluding that while there is @considerale evidence for solar influence on the Earths pre"
industrial climate andG in post"industrial climate change in the first half of the last century,A
over the previous -4 years, @all the trends in the 2un that could have had an influence on the
Earths climate have een in the opposite direction to that required to e&plain the oserved
rise in gloal mean temperatures%A
->
The arths !atural Climate Cycles
<nother general misconception promulgated y climate s,eptics is that contemporary
gloal warming can e e&plained entirely y the fact that the Earth undergoes periodic natural
fluctuations in its climate% +limate change, the argument goes, is therefore simply a natural
cycle, not a result of human"activities% This perspective is not entirely false, ut it is
misleading% <ccording to the geological record, the Earth has certainly e&perienced long
cooling and warming trends throughout the last million years% These trends adhere to an
appro&imate '44,444"year cycle consisting of ice ages ro,en y shorter warm periods
,nown as interglacials% The onset of glaciation and the susequent interglacial periods are
rought on y changes in the Earths orit around the 2un, ,nown as Dilan,ovitch cycles%
However, the last '-,444 years was the eginning of a continuing warm interglacial period,
whose current trend in the Dilan,ovitch cycle is toward a gradual cooling down towards an
ice age% This gradual cooling phase of the current Dilan,ovitch cycle e&plain the current
trend of gloal warming% 2cientists estimate that the present interglacial period is li,ely to
continue for tens of thousands of years naturally% Indeed, so unnatural is the current phase of
gloal warming that <ndre /erger, one of the worlds leading e&perts on quaternary climate
change and honorary president of the European 8eosciences (nion, calculates that current
industrial fossil fuel emissions could continue long enough to potentially suppress the ne&t
natural glacial cycle entirely%
-;
Oin,ed to this misconception is the claim that gloal warming has stopped since 199#% The
argument is that due to the lapse in sunspot activity as well as cyclical variations of gloal
warming and cooling, the coming decades will constitute a period of prolonged global
cooling #also see ne&t su"chapter$% <merican geologist ?on Easterroo, attriutes the
current period of gloal warming to a natural gloal weather cycle of warming and cooling%
In a -44' paper presented at the 8eological 2ociety of <merica, he arguesF @<dvance and
retreat of glaciers in the *acific )orthwest show three distinct oscillations, each having a
period of P-> years% 8laciers retreated rapidly from P'374 to P'3>4">> #warm cycle$,
readvanced from P'3>> to P'355 #cool cycle$, then retreated rapidly from P'355 to the
present #warm cycle$%A This correlates with the period of gloal warming which therefore
appears to e an outcome of such oscillations% @If the trend continues, the current warm cycle
should end soon,A and gloal warming will e over for another -> years%
-5
/y implication,
gloal warming is nothing to worry aoutK In the ne&t section, we loo, at this question . did
gloal warming stop in '33C #or -44'$ . in more detail, ut efore that, it is important to
understand the deeper misconceptions underlying Easterroo,s approach%
6irstly, he proffers a rather eccentric argument, indeed, a lone voice in the scientific
community, with no wider corrooration in the relevant peer"reviewed literature% 2econdly,
his paper itself was not peer"reviewed and remains unpulished in any recognized relevant
physical science !ournal% These prolems should oviously raise our initial suspicions%
Thirdly, further e&amination of one of Easterroo,s own e&amples, the *acific ?ecadal
1scillation #*?1$ vindicates them% <ccording to Easterroo,, along with other oscillations
the *?1, which occurs primarily in the )orth *acific, is responsile for most of the climate
change over the last century, including the phase of accelerated warming that egan in the
'354s% <lthough Easterroo, depicts these oscillations of warm and cool phases occurring
over clearly demarcated periods of aout ->"74 years, in reality they can stay in one phase for
etween '4 and as much as :4 years% 6urther, these long periods can also e ro,en y
intervals when it switches phases for anything etween ' and > years% Thus, in '34>, the *?1
switched to a warm phase as gloal warming egan% In '3:;, the *?1 switched to a cool
phase as temperatures cooled mid"century% In '355, the *?1 switched to a warm phase
around the same time as the modern gloal warming period% These correlations, for
Easterroo,e, prove that gloal warming is nothing more than the function of natural
oscillations in the Earths climate that will inevitaly give way to gloal cooling, efore
giving rise to another cycle of warming%
However, as 6igure 7 shows, while the *?1 does have some degree of correlation with
short term variations in gloal temperature, this is star$ly outweighed by the contrast% While
the *?1 oscillates etween positive and negative values roughly along the same level, global
average temperatures in the same period display an unambiguous long%term warming trend%
-C

To account for gloal temperature increases since the dawn of the twentieth century requires
totalling the impact from all relevant forcings including solar, aerosols, +1
-
emissions, and
so on% /y itself, the *?1 does not provide an adequate e&planation for gloal warming%
Figure -acific .ecadal Oscillation (ompared to Actual Global A,erage Temperature /ise. Source: "o)n
(oo0* S0eptical Science 1 2a# $%%&' based on data from "oint Institute for t)e Stud# of t)e Atmosp)ere
and t)e Ocean* 3as)ington +ni,ersit#
<nother natural phenomenon that s,eptics see as contriuting to imminent gloal cooling,
rather than warming, is the <tlantic Dultidecadal 1scillation #<D1$, closely related to warm
currents that ring heat from the tropics to European shores aout every ;4 to 54 years% 0et
when 8erman researchers attempted to incorporate the impact of the <D1 into computer
models of pro!ected climate change, they found that the <D1 may temporarily ameliorate the
impact of fossil fuel emissions for aout a decade, efore giving way to rapidly rising
temperatures thereafter% The scientists argued that their findings, pulished in Nature, did not
contradict the consensus around anthropogenic climate change, ut suggested that increased
warming would occur later rather than earlier due to the <D1, possily with a heightened
impact due to greenhouse gases accumulated in the interim% This relates to a phenomenon
,nown as Binternal climate variaility #variations in climate trends due to internal natural
fluctuations$%
-3

Oeading climate scientists from the online climate information networ, Real Climate .
namely 2tefan 9ahmstorf, Dichael Dann, 9ay /radley, William +onnolley, ?avid <rcher,
and +aspar <mmann . interrogated the studys forecast of Bno warming for a decade and
argued that it severely underestimated actual gloal warming trends%
74
/ut their criticism
perhaps overloo,ed the most disturing implications of the Nature study%
<s noted y <merican physicist =oseph 9omm, e&ecutive director of the +enter for Energy
and +limate 2olutions, the study was widely misrepresented y the mainstream media, which
interpreted it as supporting the case for gloal cooling% In fact, the Nature study confirmed
e&actly the opposite% +iting correspondence with the lead author of the paper, )oel
Ieenlyside, 9omm pointed out that the researchers did not e&pect a rise in @mean
temperatureA etween -44> and -4'>, ut that this did not preclude any rise in, for e&ample,
gloal surface temperatures% The study, rather, e&plains why gloal average temperatures
@have not risen very much in recent years, and, perhaps, why ocean temperatures have also
not risen very much in the past few years%A In the correspondence, ?r% Ieenlyside e&plicitly
ac,nowledges that their data implies a rapid rise in gloal average temperature after -4'4F
@However, as you correctly point out, our results show a pic, up in gloal mean temperature
for the following decade #-4'4"-4-4$% <ssuming a smooth transition in temperature, our
results would indicate the warming pic,s up earlier than -4'>%A
Figure -ro4ected Global 2ean Surface Temperatures. Source: 55( Ne6s ! 2a# $%%&'
In summary, gloal average temperature is li,ely to fluctuate along a rough plateau, until it
rises sharply in the decade after -4'4% 8iven that oserved gloal mean temperatures have
actually een higher than the studys simulated prediction with ocean data, it is clear that its
prediction is very li,ely to e conservative, and overall gloal warming trends will e worse
even accounting for the role of the <D1% 9omm thus points out that the Nature study
remains consistent with the following predictionsF
'$ The @coming decadeA #-4'4 to -4-4$ is poised to e the warmest on record, gloally%
-$ The coming decade is poised to see faster temperature rise than any decade since the
authors calculations egan in '3;4%
7$ The fast warming would li,ely egin early in the ne&t decade%
:$ The mean )orth <merican temperature for the decade from -44> to -4'> is pro!ected
to e slightly warmer than the actual average temperature of the decade from '337 to -447%
7'
Glo"al Coolin#$
+ontriuting to further puic confusion is the izarre idea, mentioned aove, that gloal
warming stopped in '33C% We discussed Easterroo,s approach to this, noting that the
argument is not supported y research pulished in the peer"reviewed scientific literature%
<lthough Easterroo, attempted to underpin the idea of gloal cooling with a variety of
e&trapolations aout the Earths various internal weather cycles in different regions, the idea
that we have definitely entered a period of gloal cooling has een endorsed y several other
non"climate scientists% 6or instance, in -44; the &elegraph carried a piece y /o +arter, an
<ustralian geology professor, arguing that @for the years '33C"-44> gloal average
temperature did not increase #there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that
differs significantly from zero$%A
7-
6ormer //+ science correspondent and fellow of the
9oyal <stronomical 2ociety ?avid Whitehouse similarly wrote in the New "tatesmanF
@The fact is that the gloal temperature of -445 is statistically the same as -44; as well as
every year since -44'% 8loal warming has, temporarily or permanently, ceased%
Temperatures across the world are not increasing as they should according to the
fundamental theory ehind gloal warming . the greenhouse effect% 2omething else is
happening and it is vital that we find out what or else we may spend hundreds of illions of
pounds needlessly%A
77
The reason these arguments find no sustantiation in the actual scientific literature is
simpleF they are false% <ccording to the (I Det 1ffices Hadley +entre for +limate +hangeF
@< simple mathematical calculation of the temperature change over the latest decade #'33C"
-445$ alone shows a continued warming of 4%' Q+ per decade%A <s noted, there has een a
recent slight slowing of warming due to internal variaility% This is not only due to the *?1
or <D1, ut more significantly due to the role of the El )iRo 2outhern 1scillation, a periodic
atmospheric and oceanic change in the tropical *acific region, which has two phasesF BEl
)iRo, the period when water in that region is warmer than averageH and BOa )iRa, the period
when the water in the tropical Eastern *acific is colder than average% The Det 1ffice refers to
@a shift towards more"frequent Oa )iRa conditions in the *acific since '33C% These ring cool
water up from the depths of the *acific 1cean, cooling gloal temperatures%A Oa )iRa
conditions late this decade thus played a ma!or role in cooler temperatures% In contrast, the El
)iRo can warm gloal temperatures y aout 4%- degrees + in a single year, affecting ocean
surface and air temperatures over land% The El )iRo event during '33C ro,e previous
warming records, ma,ing susequent temperatures appear flatter% Thus, El )iRo created much
warmer conditions in '33C while Oa )iRa generated cooler conditions toward -44C, forming
the appearance of a flatter temperature curve%
7:

)evertheless, datasets from the )ational +limate ?ata +enter #)+?+$ and )<2<s
8oddard Institute for 2pace 2tudies corroorate the Det 1ffices findings, and display a
continuing, if slower, gloal warming trend from '33C to -445% The Hadley #Det 1ffice$
dataset is flatter ecause it ignores parts of the <rctic which have e&perienced strong
warming%
7>
Figure Global 3arming Trend !77&-$%%8. Source: /obert Fa6cett* 5ulletin of t)e Australian
2eteorological and Oceanograp)ic Societ# $%%8'
It is therefore clear that the apparent cooling trend witnessed from around -445 was an
outcome of several ma!or factors including not only the *?1 and <D1, ut also more
significantly, the role of Oa )iRa% The ()s World Deteorological 1rganisation #WD1$
confirmed in early -44C that the cold Oa )iRa ocean current in the *acific would lead to
slightly colder temperatures for -44C as compared to -445% 0et it also noted that the -44C
gloal mean temperature was still @well aove the average for the last '44 yearsA, and that
@the decade from '33C to -445 was the warmest on record%A <ccording to WD1 2ecretary"
8eneral Dichael =arraud, @Oa )iRa is part of what we call Bvariaility% There has always
een and there will always e cooler and warmer years, ut what is important for climate
change is that the trend is upH the climate on average is warming even if there is a temporary
cooling ecause of Oa )iRa%A
7;
It thus transpired that already y mid"-44C the Oa )iRa
cooling effect had egun wea,ening%
*rior to this recovery in temperature rise, the Oa )iRa effect had contriuted to a temporary
drop in temperature from =anuary -445 to =anuary -44C of around 4%;Q+, documented y
meteorologist <nthony Watts who descried the phenomenon as @an anomaly with a large
magnitudeA coinciding with @other anecdotal weather evidence%A
75
+limate s,eptics !uilantly
reported this as yet further evidence of gloal cooling, rather than warming% 6or instance,
'aily&ech reported Watts finding as @a value large enough to erase nearly all the gloal
warming recorded over the past '44 years% <ll in one years time% 6or all sources, its the
single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down%A
7C
'aily&ech then
suggested that this gloal cooling was due not to Oa )iRa, as documented y the scientific
community, ut rather to reduced solar activity% The suggestion, once more lac,ing
sustantiation from the peer"reviewed scientific literature, was that the sun is currently in its
wea,est cycle #-7$, with cycle -: purportedly refusing to start% 2,eptics point out that a
similar event occurred :44 years ago in the form of a solar event ,nown as a Daunder
Dinimum, precipitating a BOittle Ice <ge consisting of a sharp gloal temperature drop% This
proves, according to 'aily&ech, that the Earth is on the verge of a prolonged phase of gloal
cooling due to yet another Daunder Dinimum%
73
0et there is a serious prolem with this idea% 6or diminished solar activity to e the direct
cause of the 4%;Q+ drop in gloal temperature over a single year would require a dramatic
reduction in Total 2olar Irradiance #T2I$ . that is, the total amount of radiant energy emitted
y the 2un hitting the top of the Earths atmosphere, measured in watts per square metre
#WMm
-
$% <ccording to +harles +amp and Ia Iit Tung from the ?epartment of <pplied
Dathematics at the (niversity of Washington, in a paper in (eophysical Research )etters, the
solar cycle contriutes *ust under 0+,-C .to be precise, only 0+1#-C/ cooling to gloal
temperatures as the sun moves from ma&imum to minimum . over three times smaller than
the 4%;Q+ necessary in this case%
:4
The solar cycle therefore simply cannot e&plain the level of
cooling occurring from -445 to -44C, which was correlated instead with aforementioned
oscillations in ocean conditions%
Indeed, contradicting the speculation that solar cycle -: would fail to ,ic,"in leading to a
period of prolonged gloal cooling for several decades, the solar cycle did egin in early
-44C . e&actly as had een predicted y leading solar scientists for some years% The scientists
had already pointed out years earlier that the cycle would start later than normal, ut would
e etween 74 and >4 per cent stronger than the previous cycle, reaching its pea, in aout
-4'-%
:'
(nfortunately, this is li,ely to e&acerate the impact of fossil fuel emissions on gloal
warming over the coming decades% This e&ample illustrates the ,ey lesson that climate
change cannot e understood simply y emphasizing inevitale fluctuations and variations in
weather over short time"periods, ut y analyzing the long"term trends over decades%
1.2 National ecurity Alert
A"ru%t& 'a%id Climate Chan#e: (lausi"le
2o the gloal warming sceptics are unequivocally wrong% /ut how grave is the danger from
climate change? 1ne of the first e&plicit indications that the Western national security
estalishment recognized that climate change may well pose a more dangerous threat to
national security than terrorism was a *entagon study commissioned y the legendary (2
?epartment of ?efense planner <ndrew Darshall% Dade pulic in =anuary -44:, the report
was authored y *eter 2chwartz, a +I< consultant and former planning head at 2hell 1il, and
?oug 9andall, a senior consultant at the 8loal /usiness )etwor, in 2an 6rancisco% Titled
@<n <rupt +limate +hange 2cenario and Its Implications for (nited 2tates )ational
2ecurityA, the report for the ?epartment of ?efenses 1ffice of )et <ssessment drew on
interviews and research from leading climate scientists to pro!ect a particularly dangerous
gloal scenario that @is plausile, and would challenge (nited 2tates national security in
ways that should e considered immediately%A +limate change, the report urged, @should e
elevated eyond a scientific deate to a (2 national security concern%A ?ismissing douts
aout the scientific validity of climate change, the report argued thatF
@There is sustantial evidence to indicate that significant gloal warming will occur
during the -'st centuryG 9ecent research, however, suggests that there is a possiility that
this gradual gloal warming could lead to a relatively arupt slowing of the oceans
thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply
reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a
significant fraction of the worlds food production% With inadequate preparation, the result
could e a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earths environment%A
:-
+oncerns over the national security implications of climate change were also aired in
Europe% In early -44C, a high"level European (nion #E($ report to -5 heads of governments
warned of the proaility of @significant potential conflictsA in coming decades due to
@intensified competition over access to, and control over, energy resources%A Written y
=avier 2olana, the E(s foreign policy chief, and /enito 6errero"Waldner, the E(
commissioner for e&ternal relations, the report argued that gloal warming would precipitate
ma!or security issues for Europe, such as mass migrations, failed states and political
radicalization% In particular, it noted that the quic,ened thawing of the <rctic due to
accelerating climate change would lead to intensified geopolitical contestations etween
9ussia and )<T1, and potentially even military conflict, over access to the regions large
reserves of untapped oil and gas reserves% The E( report also highlighted intensified )orth"
2outh tensions due to gloal warming, particularly the volatility of regions in the Diddle East
and +entral <sia holding large energy reserves and mineral deposits%
:7
Increased (ro"a"ility of 'esource Conflict
2uch concerns were already emphasised in the *entagons earlier report, which had warned
that rapid climate change could fundamentally @destailize the geo"political environment,
leading to s,irmishes, attles, and even warA due to three categories of resource constraintF
'$ 6ood shortages due to decreases in net gloal agricultural productionH
-$ ?ecreased availaility and quality of fresh water in ,ey regions due to shifting
precipitation patterns, causing more frequent floods and droughtsH
7$ ?isrupted access to energy supplies due to e&tensive sea ice and storminess%
9apid climate change, leading to catastrophic droughts, famines and rioting, would thus
effect mounting national and international tensions, mediated through defensive and offensive
strategies that could escalate into a terrifying arc of gloal conflicts, oriented around deadly
competition over control of increasingly scarce resourcesF @)ations with the resources to do
so may uild virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves%
Oess fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighors, may
initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy%A The *entagon study thus
suggests not only that the threat to national security posed y rapid climate change is
potentially far worse than terrorism, ut further that the future arc of conflict will e aout
@resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor%A
::
0et the *entagon warning is only the tip of a rapidly melting iceerg% 1ver the last decade
alone, scientific studies have increasingly homed in on the dynamics, contours, and impacts
of climate change% <nd the implication is not merely that climate change could dramatically
undermine national security, ut that it could endanger the very survival of civilization itself%
)istential Threat: *atal +isru%tion to Industrial Civilization "y nd of
,-
st
Century
1utlining si& climate change scenarios, the landmar, 6eruary -445 6ourth <ssessment
9eport y the (nited )ations Inter"8overnmental *anel on +limate +hange #I*++$ shows
that even the least"case scenario would e greatly destailizing% /ut the worst"case scenario
for the first time demonstrated more luntly than ever that climate change could mean the end
of life on Earth, in our own lifetimes% The report pro!ected that y -'44, the average gloal
temperature could rise y ;%:Q+, leading to drastic ecological alterations that would ma,e life
throughout most of the 0arth impossible%
:>
Even a rise of 7Q+ produced y a douling of +1
-
production from pre"industrial levels to >>4 parts per million . not a worst case scenario and
advocated y the /ritish governments former chief scientific adviser 2ir ?avid Iing as a
realistic upper limit at which +1
-
levels could e stailized . would generate conditions
unsupportale y society%
The I*++ report generated alarm ells around the world aout the gravity of climate
change and its potentially fatal impact for life on Earth% 8oing further, /ritish ecologist Dar,
Oynas translated the I*++s temperature rise scenarios into a detailed analysis of the scale of
gloal warming at each degree% In his oo, "i1 'egrees2 3ur 4uture on a 5etter !lanet .
winner of the 9oyal 2ociety 2cience /oo, *rize . Oynas reviewed thousands of peer"
reviewed scientific studies and climate models, to try and show how each degree level
increase in the gloal average temperature is li,ely to change the face of the EarthF
:;
'Q+ IncreaseF Ice"free sea asors more heat and accelerates gloal warmingH fresh water
lost from a third of the worlds surfaceH low"lying coastlines flooded
-Q+ IncreaseF Europeans dying of heatstro,eH forests ravaged y fireH stressed plants
eginning to emit caron rather than asoring itH a third of all species face e&tinction
7Q+ IncreaseF +aron release from vegetation and soils speeds gloal warmingH death of
the <mazon rainforestH super"hurricanes hit coastal citiesH starvation in <frica
:Q+ IncreaseF 9unaway thaw of permafrost ma,es gloal warming unstoppaleH much of
/ritain made uninhaitale y severe floodingH Dediterranean region aandoned
>Q+ IncreaseF Dethane from ocean floor accelerates gloal warmingH ice gone from oth
polesH humans migrate in search of food and try vainly to live li,e animals off the land
;Q+ IncreaseF Oife on Earth ends with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide
gas and methane firealls racing across the gloe with the power of atomic omsH only
fungi survive%
:5
Figure 9. Grap)ical -resentation of +N I-(( Scenarios for Global 3arming 5# .egrees (elsius. Source:
Stop (limate ()ange $%%&' based on Stern /e,ie6 of t)e :conomics of (limate ()ange
+limate change, in other words, does not simply mean more wars, social chaos, and
political upheaval% In the long"term, gloal warming threatens the survival of modern
industrial civilization%
1.! Rapid Climate Change
(ositive *eed"ac.s and 'unaway Climate Chan#e "y /id0Century
<s dismal as these pro!ected scenarios are, increasing scientific evidence strongly suggests
that even the I*++s worst"case scenario of a ; degree +elsius rise in world average
temperature y -'44 could e overly optimistic, if current rates of increase of fossil fuel
emissions continue unaated%
<t the end of -44;, the 8loal +aron *ro!ect #8+*$ announced its findings that etween
-444 and -44>, +1
-
emissions had grown four times faster than in the preceding '4 years%
8+* e&ecutive director =osep +anadell warnedF @1n our current path, we will find it
e&tremely difficult to rein in caron emissions enough to stailise the atmospheric +1
-
concentration at :>4 parts per million Slimiting gloal warming to -Q+T and even >>4 ppm
S7Q+T will e a challenge%A
:C
2imilarly, according to a paper in the !roceedings of the
National 6cademy of "ciences in <pril -445, concurrent +1
-
emissions are worse than all si&
scenarios contemplated y the I*++F @The emissions growth rate since -444 was greater than
for the most fossil"fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental *anel on +limate +hange
emissions scenarios%A This implies that the I*++s worst"case si& degree scenario is a
conservative underestimate of the most proale climate tra!ectory under current rates of
emissions%
:3
Indeed, due to environmental inertia #y which the environment stores up part of the energy
generated y greenhouse gas emissions, only releasing it to the atmosphere later on$, even
with the complete cessation of human emissions, atmospheric caron dio&ide would continue
to rise for up to a century, and therefore gloal temperatures would continue to increase for
two or more centuries% 2o climate change could occur more rapidly than e&pected y many
current studies%
>4
This underscores the star, inadequacy of demands to stailise +1
-
emissions at '334 levels #the Iyoto *rotocols$H and to allow countries to produce their own
aritrary targets for emissions reductions #+openhagen$%
< further 8+* study in -44C found that in the preceding year, caron released from urning
fossil fuels and producing cement had increased -%3 percent over that released in -44;, to a
total of C%:5 8igatons #8t%$% This output is at the highest end of the I*++s worst"case
scenario% 2imilarly, in 1ctoer -44C, another paper pulished in the !roceedings of the
National 6cademy of "ciences showed that even if humans stopped generating greenhouse
gases immediately, the worlds average temperature would @most li,elyA increase y -%:
degrees + y the end of this century . potentially enough to trigger irreversile, and
potentially even runaway climate change, as we will show elow%
>'
Figure 8 3orld :nerg#-/elated (O$ :missions b# Fuel T#pe* !77$-$%1%. Source: +S :nerg# Information
Administration :IA'* International :nerg# Annual $%%; 2a#-"ul# $%%9'< :IA* S#stem for t)e Anal#sis
of Global :nerg# 2ar0ets $%%8'
1ne of the most widely"cited climatic models e&ploring the potential impact of such
environmental inertia was y the Det 1ffices Hadley +entre for +limate +hange% It was one
of several new studies recognizing that the gloal climate system is in a state of unstale
equilirium, in which surface heating caused y +1
-
can act as a trigger for an accelerating
process of gloal warming driven y amplifying @positive feedac,sA, eventually leading to a
process of runaway climate change completely eyond human control% The further we move
away from unstale equilirium due to human"generated emissions, the more powerful
ecomes the positive feedac, system, and thus the faster the rate of climate change% ?avid
Wasdell, lead scientist on feedac, dynamics of comple& systems for the 8loal 2ystem
?ynamics and *olicies *ro!ect of the European +ommission, has ta,en such findings much
further% He finds that many current gloal warming estimates focusing on the alleged safety
of the -Q+ limit could e quite off the mar,, and that runaway climate change could egin y
mid"century%
>-
In this case, rather than gloal warming constituting a gradual, linear increase,
with greenhouse gasses eing asored and retained y the atmosphere, the illions of years
worth of caron and methane could e incontinently released in lazing surges that would
drown or incinerate whole cities% *olar ice would melt rapidly, and the <mazon rainforest
could collapse in a few decades% < vicious, irreversile and self"reinforcing spiral would
egin which would threaten not !ust our way of life ut the very e&istence of our own and
every other species on Earth%
>7
The (nited )ations I*++ report has commendaly shifted the deate on climate change y
pulicly affirming firstly an overwhelming scientific consensus on the reality of human"
emissions generated climate change, and secondly a startling set of scenarios for how gloal
warming will affect life on Earth y the end of this century if e&isting rates of increase of +1
-
emissions continue unaated% /ut according to a growing ody of scientific evidence, the
I*++s findings in -445 were far too conservative . and dangerous climate change is more
li,ely to occur far sooner, with greater rapidity, and higher intensity, than officially
recognized y governments%
Inaccuracies in the Inter#overnmental (anel on Climate Chan#e ,112
'e%ort
< numer of /ritish researchers e&pressed grave reservations shortly after the release of the
() I*++ 6ourth <ssessment 9eport% In particular, ?avid Wasdell, who was an accredited
reviewer of the I*++ report, told the New "cientist that early drafts prepared y scientists in
<pril -44; contained @many references to the potential for climate to change faster than
e&pected ecause of Bpositive feedac,s in the climate system% Dost of these references were
asent from the final version%A His assertion is ased @on a line"y"line analysis of the
scientists report and the final version,A which was agreed in 6eruary -445 at @a wee,"long
meeting of representatives of more than '44 governments%A /elow we highlight three
e&amples from Wasdells analysisF
'$ In reference to warnings that natural systems such as rainforests, soils and oceans would
e less ale in future to asor greenhouse gas emissions, the scientists draft report of <pril
-44; warnedF @&his positive feedbac$ could lead to as much as 1+, degrees Celsius of added
warming by ,100A% The final version of Darch -445 though only ac,nowledges that feedac,
e&ists and saysF @The magnitude of this feedac, is uncertain%A
-$ The <pril -44; draft warned that gloal warming will increase the amount of water
vapour released into the atmosphere, which in turn will act li,e a greenhouse gas, leading to
an estimated 780%50 percent amplification of global mean warming9+ In the final Darch -445
report this statement was replaced with @Water vapour changes represent the largest
feedac,A%
7$ In relation to the acceleration of rea,up of arctic and antarctic ice sheets, the <pril -44;
draft paper tal,ed aout oserved rapid changes in ice sheet flows and referred to an
7accelerated trend9 in sea%level rise+ The government"endorsed final report of Darch -445
said that @ice flows from 8reenland and <ntarctica G could increase or decrease in future%A
>:
:$ The conclusion that 7North 6merica is e1pected to e1perience locally severe economic
damage, plus substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption from climate change
related events9 was removed from the final version%
>>
In other words, the I*++ 6ourth <ssessment 9eport e&cluded and underplayed direct
reference to the overwhelming proaility of the rapid acceleration of climate change in the
conte&t of current rates of increase of +1
-
emissions and positive feedac,s% Wasdell put it
down to possile political interference, and there are reasonale grounds for this conclusion%
<s noted y Di,e Dann, director of the Earth 2ystem 2cience +enter at *ennsylvania 2tate
(niversity, and a past lead author for the I*++F @<llowing governmental delegations to ride
into town at the last minute and water down conclusions after they were painsta,ingly arrived
at in an o!ective scientific assessment does not serve society well%A
>;

The possile watering"down of the I*++s -445 6ourth <ssessment 9eport is part of a
wider pattern% In the same month, a !oint survey y the (nion of +oncerned 2cientists and
8overnment <ccountaility *ro!ect concluded that >C per cent of (2 government"employed
climate scientists surveyed complained of eing su!ected toF '$ @*ressure to eliminate the
words Bclimate change, Bgloal warming, or other similar termsA from their
communicationsH -$ editing of scientific reports y their superiors which @changed the
meaning of scientific findingsAH 7$ statements y officials at their agencies which
misrepresented their findingsH :$ @The disappearance or unusual delay of wesites, reports, or
other science"ased materials relating to climateAH >$ @)ew or unusual administrative
requirements that impair climate"related wor,AH ;$ @2ituations in which scientists have
actively o!ected to, resigned from, or removed themselves from a pro!ect ecause of
pressure to change scientific findings%A 2cientists reported :7> incidents of political
interference over the preceding five years%
>5
2uch large"scale systematic political interference
with climate science lends credence to the concern that climate scientists feel unale to voice
their real views aout the urgency posed y gloal warming%
1." Abrupt Change through #$ipping %oints&
arth +oes !ot +o Gradual Chan#e
The proaility of the rapid acceleration of climate change at current rates of increase of
+1
-
emissions is therefore a pivotal issue% In the last few years, the weight of the availale
scientific evidence increasingly suggests that climate change will occur not through a long,
protracted linear process of gradual intensification, ut in the form of arupt shifts through
@tipping points%A <s noted y 6red *earce, an editor at the New "cientist and author of &he
)ast (eneration, the ma!ority of climate scientists now accept that their old ideas aout
gradual change simply do not represent how the worlds climate system wor,s% @+limate
change did not happen gradually in the past, and it will not happen that way in the future%
*lanet Earth does not do gradual change% It does ig !umpsH it wor,s y tipping points.=
>C

In -44-, a comprehensive study y the (2 )ational <cademy of 2ciences descried a @new
paradigm of an aruptly changing climatic systemA, that is now @well estalished y research
over the last decade%A /ut the new paradigm @is little ,nown and scarcely appreciated in the
wider community of natural and social scientists and policy"ma,ers%A The report warned thatF
@<rupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system was eing
forced to change most rapidly% Thus, greenhouse warming and other human alterations of
the earth system may increase the possiility of large, arupt, and unwelcome regional or
gloal climatic events% The arupt changes of the past are not fully e&plained yet, and
climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and e&tent of those changes% Hence,
future arupt changes cannot e predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to e
e&pected%A
>3
There is thus @a growing fear among scientists that, than,s to man"made climate change,
we are aout to return to a world of climatic turulence, where tipping points are constantly
crossed%A The last five years alone of scientific research has unearthed previously un,nown
tipping points that could trigger rapid climate change%
;4
The Two +e#ree 3imit$
<t the =une -44> (I government conference on @<voiding ?angerous +limate +hangeA at
the Det 1ffice in E&eter, scientists reported an emerging consensus that gloal warming must
remain @elow an average increase of two degrees centigrade if catastrophe is to e avoided%A
It was argued that this requires ensuring that caron dio&ide in the atmosphere stays elow
:44 parts per million #ppm$% /eyond this level, dangerous and runaway climate change is
li,ely to e irreversile%
It is commonly elieved that the current concentration of +1
-
in the atmosphere is aout
7C> ppm% However, aout two wee,s after the government conference warning of the
minimum threshold, the Oondon :ndependent commissioned an investigation y Ieith 2hine,
Head of the Deteorology ?epartment at the (niversity of 9eading% (sing the latest availale
figures for -44:, *rofessor 2hine calculated that @the +1
-
equivalent concentration, largely
unnoticed y the scientific and political communities, has now risen eyond this threshold%A
(nli,e other calculations, 2hine accounted for the effects of methane and nitrous o&ide,
finding that the total concentration of greenhouse gasses contriuting to gloal warming #i%e%
the equivalent concentration of +1
-
$ is now :->ppm and fast rising% In the asence of
mitigating strategies to reduce the amount of +1
-
already in the atmosphere, this guarantees
that the global mean temperature will rise by , degrees efore the end of this century%
+onsequently, 2hine argued, some of the worst predicted effects of gloal warming, such as
the destruction of ecosystems and increased hunger and water shortages for illions of people
in the 2outh, could e unavoidale unless drastic action is ta,en to not only reduce emissions,
ut to remove +1
-
from the atmosphere%
;'
2hines findings were corroorated y the I*++ in 1ctoer -445, concluding that the level
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in mid"-44> had reached 885 ppm, a level not
e&pected for another '4 years% Dacquarie (niversity climate scientist Tim 6lannery
remar,edF @We thought we had that much time% /ut the new data indicates that in aout mid"
-44> we crossed that threshold% What the report estalishes is that the amount of greenhouse
gas in the atmosphere is already aove the threshold that could potentially cause dangerous
climate change%A
;-
When as,ed aout the implications, Tom /ur,e +/E, a former /ritish government
environment adviser for ': years,
;7
told the :ndependentF
@The passing of this threshold is of the most enormous significance% It means we have
actually entered a new era ; the era of dangerous climate change. We have passed the point
where we can e confident of staying elow the - degree rise set as the threshold for danger%
What this tells us is that we have already reached the point where our children can no
longer count on a safe climate%A
;:
The - degree limit has een adopted y the European (nion as the ma&imum limit that
humanity can ris,% @/eyond that,A notes *aul /rown, @as unwelcome changes in the earths
reaction to e&tra warmth continue, it is theoretically possile to trigger runaway climate
change, ma,ing the earths atmosphere so different that most of life would e threatened%A
;>

< -44> !oint tas,"force report y the Institute for *ulic *olicy 9esearch #I**9$ in the (I,
the +enter for <merican *rogress in the (2, and the <ustralia Institute, argues on the -
degree asis that the point"of"no"return may e reached as early as -4'>% The report finds a
two degree temperature rise would trigger an irreversile chain of climatic disastersF
@The possiilities include reaching climatic tipping points leading, for e&ample, to the
loss of the West <ntarctic and 8reenland ice sheets #which, etween them, could raise sea
level more than '4 meters over the space of a few centuries$, the shutdown of the
thermohaline ocean circulation #and, with it, the 8ulf 2tream$, and the transformation of
the planets forests and soils from a net sin, of caron to a net source of caron%A
;;
However, it is now ecoming clear that the - degree":>4 ppm E( limit is far too high, a
political figure adopted against sound scientific advice% <fter studying core samples from the
ottom of the ocean to trac, the effect of +1
-
levels millions of years ago, =ames Hansen,
head of the )<2< 8oddard Institute for 2pace 2tudies, concluded in <pril -44C that the
asolute upper limit for acceptale +1
-
emissions is <50 ppm ; a limit that has already been
surpassedF @If you leave us at :>4ppm for long enough it will proaly melt all the ice .
thats a sea rise of 5> metres% What we have found is that the target we have all een aiming
for is a disaster . a guaranteed disaster%A <t levels as high as >>4ppm, Hansens team found
that the world would warm y ;Q+, doule that of previous estimates% In other words, the
impact of +1
-
emissions is li,ely to e double the intensity and severity of the conservative
scenarios outlined y the I*++% This is due to the positive feedac,s that were insufficiently
incorporated into I*++ assessments% It is necessary therefore not simply to stop fossil fuel
emissions, ut to apply technologies to safely e&tract caron from the atmosphere and store it
safely, allowing the atmospheric concentration to return to a safe level% 0et Hansen warns that
even these technologies are seriously inadequate y themselves, and over the long"term other
methods to increase soil caron storage capacity should e e&plored, such as e&tensive
reforestation and more creative caron sequestration techniques li,e Biochar . a charcoal
produced from iomass which could provide long"term caron storage while improving soil
quality and agricultural productivity%
;5

Figure & (O
$
/eductions 6it) (oal-(arbon -)aseout b# $%1%. Source: "ames >ansen * et. al. $%1%'
It should e emphasised, then, that even the 7>4 ppm upper limit was not proposed y
Hansen as a target for emissions reductions, as it would not prevent massive climate change
with potentially uncontrollale and irreversile consequences% <s noted y *hilip 2utton, who
teaches 8loal Warming 2cience at the (niversity of DelourneF
@The total loss of the <rctic sea"ice in summer, the loss over the ne&t few decades of all
the ice in the Himalayas, the loss over '44 years of all the permafrost stored caron, the
acidification of the ocean, the overheating of the oceans, the loss of the <mazon rainforest,
the loss of most of the 8reenland ice sheet, the destailisation and ma!or loss of the West
<ntarctic ice sheet are all issues that have severe ramifications and require lower +1
-
levels than 7>4 ppm%A
;C
The prolem is that each of these effects, proale even elow 7>4 ppm, have their own
positive feedac, impacts, each with potentially irreversile consequences% < safe level of
emissions is somewhere elow 774 ppm . most li,ely, according to *rofessor =ohn
2chellnhuer of the *otsdam Institute, etween -C4 and 744 ppm%
;3
=e appear to have now
passed the tipping point, and at current rates of increase of C3
,
emissions, we are well on
our way to breaching temperatures of ,-C and even <-C at minimum% 2ince -44>, increasing
evidence that several ma!or climate su"system tipping points have thus een reached with
potentially irreversile consequences has emerged% These consequences, in turn, may trigger
the reaching of further tipping points, the cumulative impact of which could push the whole
Earth climate system into a self"reinforcing runaway warming process%
The Gulf Stream and the Arctic Ice Ca%
In Day -44>, climate scientists wor,ing under *eter Wadhams, *rofessor of 1cean *hysics
at +amridge (niversity, announced they had found signs of a slowdown in the 8ulf 2tream,
otherwise ,nown as the thermohaline circulation #TH+$ . a huge convection system that
transports warm water from the tropics to the poles and send cool water ac, through the
depths of the oceans% 1ne of its driving @engines,A the sin,ing of supercooled water in the
8reenland 2ea, had @wea,ened to less than a quarter of its former strengthA due largely to
gloal warming, li,ely to precipitate a drop in temperatures in the (I and northwest Europe%
Wadhams and his team also predicted that the slowing of the 8ulf 2tream might have other
effects, such as the complete summer melting of the <rctic ice cap y @as early as -4-4 and
almost certainly y -4C4%A
54
/y ?ecemer -44>, scientists on an e&pedition to the <tlantic
1cean, measuring the strength of the current etween <frica and the <merican east coast,
found that the circulation had slowed y 74 per cent since a previous e&pedition '- years
ago%
5'
Dore recent research suggests that this may not e as serious as originally suspected,
and that the downward trend is less pronounced than hitherto elieved%
5-
The fear is that higher temperatures caused y gloal warming could add fresh water to the
northern )orth <tlantic y increasing the precipitation and y melting neary sea ice,
mountain glaciers and the 8reenland ice sheet% This influ& of fresh water could reduce the
surface salinity and density, potentially slowing down the 8ulf 2tream% The southern
hemisphere would ecome warmer and the northern hemisphere would e&perience cooling,
ut this cooling effect would proaly e counter"alanced y overall e&cess warming%
57

<lthough a large shift in the TH+ was the main variale studied in the *entagons
apocalyptic scenario of arupt climate change, climate scientists are accustomed to view a
collapse of the 8ulf 2tream or TH+ as a very slim proaility% /ut as time has passed, the
proaly has increased dramatically% <ccording to Dichael 2chlesinger, *rofessor of
<tmospheric 2ciences at the (niversity of Illinois at (rana"+hampaignF
@<sent any climate policy, scientists have found a 54 percent chance of shutting down
the thermohaline circulation in the )orth <tlantic 1cean over the ne&t -44 years, with a :>
percent proaility of this occurring in this century% The li,elihood decreases with
mitigation, ut even the most rigorous immediate climate policy would still leave a ->
percent chance of a thermohaline collapse%A
He added thatF @The shutdown of the thermohaline circulation has een characterized as a
high"consequence, low"proaility event% 1ur analysis, including the uncertainties in the
prolem, indicates it is a high%conse>uence, high%probability event%A
5:
2ince then, increasing
evidence indicates that other climate systems are even closer to tipping points toward serious
instaility%
In <ugust -44>, scientists reported that <rctic sea ice had reached its lowest monthly point
on record, dipping an unprecedented 'C%- per cent elow the long"term average% 2ea ice
naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter ut for the first time on record, this annual
reound did not occur%
5>
/y Darch -445, the traversal of this tipping point was no longer in dout% Dar, 2erreze,
then at the (2 )ational 2now and Ice ?ata +entre #)2I?+$ warned that the <rctic would
soon e almost totally ice"free within the ne&t few decades, with a dramatic impact on
weather patterns across the northern hemisphere% @I thin, there is some evidence that we may
have reached that tipping point, and the impacts will not e confined to the <rctic region,A he
noted% @With this increasing vulneraility, a ,ic, to the system !ust from natural climate
fluctuations could send it into a tailspin%A
5;
Figure 7 Arctic Sea Ice Loss. Source: ()ris /o6an* +ni,ersit# of "o)annesburg $%%8'
The potential impact within this century is not entirely predictale, ut the road contours
are clear% )<2<s =ames Hansen has noted that in the conte&t of the rapid melting of the
8reenland and <ntarctic ice sheets, sea levels are already rising at an unprecedented rate, and
could end up increasing y one meter every -4 years% @That is a real disaster, and thats what
we have to avoidA, he warned% <ccording to Eric Oindstrom, )<2<s head of oceanography,
satellite data shows thatF @If the #polar$ ice sheets really get involved, then were tal,ing tens
of metres of sea level . that could really start to swamp low"lying countries,A including large
areas of /ritain, Western Europe and the (nited 2tates%
55

/ut the rate of annual retreat of <rctic ice is li,ely to intensify as the loss of ice e&poses the
dar,er ocean, which asors more of the suns energy leading to increased melting of ice%
Thus, with each year, the predictions of climate scientists turn out to e not too alarmist, ut
to the contrary, far too conservative% Thus y ?ecemer -445, )<2< satellite data showed
that <rctic ice was disappearing so fast that @an irreversile tipping point has already een
reached ecause of gloal warming%A /etween -44- and -44;, the volume of <rctic ice had
halved, while the 8reenland ice sheet had lost almost '3 illion tonnes% <ccording to )<2<
climate scientist =ay UwallyF
@6t this rate, the 6rctic 3cean could be nearly ice%free at the end of summer by ,01,*
much faster than previous predictions% The <rctic is often cited as the canary in the coal
mine for climate warming% )ow as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died% It is
time to start getting out of the coal minesG :t?s getting even worse than the climate models
predicted%A
5C
/y the end of -44C, )2I?+ scientists declared that the rate of <rctic melting had proaly
already reached the tipping"point% 9egional air temperatures were higher than e&pected
during the autumn due to accumulating heat in the ocean as more sea ice melts% This process
of B<rctic amplification, a self"reinforcing positive feedac,, was not e&pected for another
'4"'> years, and is occurring at a pace faster than accounted for in any of the I*++s
models%
53
< summer -443 study of the thic,ness of the <rctic ice, rather than !ust surface
area, found that it had thinned y :4 per cent since -44:%
C4
The accelerating <rctic melt also
increases the proaility of a slow"down of the 8ulf 2tream or TH+, as discussed aoveF
' 2urface currents carry warm, salty water from the tropics%
- The water cools, its density increases and it sin,s to the deep ocean%
7 The cold water flows ac, to the equator, driving the Bocean conveyor which in
turn contriutes to the )orth <tlantic current, the continuation of the 8ulf 2tream, that
warms northern Europe%
: <s ice melts, freshwater dilutes the warm salty water from the tropics%
> The water ecomes less dense so does not sin, as fast, wea,ening the Bconveyor
and therefore possily disrupting the 8ulf 2tream%
C'
While potentially contriuting to cooling in northern Europe, a slow"down of the 8ulf
2tream would simultaneously lead to increasing droughts in other areas% This process is
already well underway and getting worse% <ccording to the (2 )ational +enter for
<tmospheric 9esearch #)+<9$ the percentage of Earths land area stric,en y serious
drought more than douled from the '354s to the early -444s, from aout '4"'> per cent to
74 per cent, largely due to rising temperatures% Widespread drying occurred over much of
Europe and <sia, +anada, western and southern <frica, and eastern <ustralia%
C-
8loal
warming is not only melting the <rctic, it is melting the glaciers that feed <sias largest rivers
. the 8anges, Indus, De,ong, 0angtze and 0ellow% /ecause glaciers are a natural storage
system, releasing water during hot arid periods, the shrin,ing ice sheets could aggravate
water imalances, causing flooding as the melting accelerates, followed y a reduction in
river flows% This prolem is only decades, possily even years away, potentially resulting in
hundreds of millions of <fricans and tens of millions of Oatin <mericans eing short of water%
/y -4>4, more than ' illion people in <sia could face water shortages, and y -4C4, water
shortages could threaten '%' illion to 7%- illion people% 2ome climate models show su"
saharan <frica drying out y -4>4%
C7
/y other pro!ections, as early as -4-> some > illion
people gloally could e suffering from serious water shortages, half a illion of them due to
climate change%
C:
While <rctic sea ice is rapidly disappearing, the last -4 years have seen an apparently
anomalous uild"up of sea ice in West <ntarctica% 6rom '353 to -44;, <ntarctic wintertime
ice e&tent increased y 4%; per cent per decade% The average year"round ice has also increased
in this period%
C>
+limate sceptics often claim that this is evidence against gloal warming%
However, actually it proves the opposite% 1nce again, it is necessary to account for longer"
term climate trends and internal variaility to understand what is happening% < -447 study
pulished in "cience finds that detection of long"term change in <ntarctica is mas,ed y large
fluctuations from decade"to"decade% These decadal fluctuations have produced the apparent
short"term increases in <ntarctic sea ice from recent satellite data% The "cience study finds
that since the '3>4s, there has een a large overall reduction of appro1imately ,0 per cent in
the northern e&tent of <ntarctic sea ice in the region south of <ustralia%
C;
6urthermore,
overall ice loss in the <ntarctic has een detected even over shorter time"periods% < )<2<
mission in -44;, ased on the first ever survey of the entire <ntarctic ice sheet on land,
@found the ice sheets mass has decreased significantly from -44- to -44>A, raising gloal sea
levels y aout '%- millimetres . aout '7 per cent of the overall oserved sea level rise for
this period%
C5

In addition, the temporary increase of <ntarctic sea ice has een predicted as a consequence
of gloal warming, rather than its anti"thesis% 9esearchers have long ,nown that snow uilds
glaciers% In -44>, a team of scientists comined snow"thic,ness measurements with
modelling studies and found that snow may also uild <ntarcticas sea ice% *ulishing their
findings in the @ournal of (eophysical Research, they argued that as climate change is
intensifying gloal warming, more moisture has made its way to high latitudes, leading to
heavier snowfalls in the <ntarctic in particular% With increased snowfall, a sufficiently thic,
snow layer would push the ice underwater% The seawater in the snow"ice oundary would
freeze, thic,ening the floe% @2ome of the melt in the <rctic may e alanced y increases in
sea ice volume in the <ntarcticA, noted lead scientist ?ylan +% *owell%
CC

<nother factor is ozone depletion% <s gloal warming in the near"surface lower atmosphere
#troposphere$ accelerates in correlation with increased output of greenhouse gases, this
warmer air ecomes trapped in the lower troposphere as the +1
-
acts as a lan,et, preventing
the heat from entering the upper atmosphere #stratosphere$ which thus egins to cool% Thus,
higher surface temperatures due to gloal warming are correlated with lower temperatures in
the upper atmosphere% In the <ntarctic, high"altitude colder temperatures in the region
intensify the impact of ozone destruction y +hloroflourcarons #+6+s$, emitted from so
many industrial technologies% These lower temperatures thus counter the overall impact of
gloal warming in the region%
C3

<dding to these e&planations, research pulished in -44C dissolved any further possile
amiguity% < new study in Nature (eoscience found that oth the <rctic and the <ntarctic are
over the long"term @getting less icy ecause of gloal warming%A The study, comparing
temperature records and four computer climate models, found a warming in oth polar
regions that could only e e&plained y a uildup of greenhouse gases, mainly from urning
fossil fuels, rather than natural forcings% In oth polar regions, the oserved warming could
only e reproduced in climate models y including human influences via fossil fuels%
34

/ore (ositive *eed"ac.s
The levels of warming in the polar regions are merely isolated signifiers of the momentous
scale of climate changes that scientists are racing to ,eep up with% 2cientists have isolated a
total of '- eco"system @hotspotsA including the aove, which they consider to e especially
vulnerale to human"intervention% <ccording to =ohn 2chellnhuer of the *otsdam Institute,
we have arely egun to recognize the danger of triggering large"scale, rapid and irreversile
changes across the entire planet, due to stress in these crucial systems which act as massive
environmental regulators% @We have so far completely underestimated the importance of these
locations% What we do ,now is that going eyond critical thresholds in these regions could
have dramatic consequences for humans and other life forms%A /reaching of tipping points in
these climate su"systems could also have uncontrollale consequences that could, in turn,
increase the proaility in reaching a tipping point in the gloal climate system, which could
lead to runaway warming%
3'
When accounting for the potential impacts of positive feedac,s, the - degree + limit is
simply too high% Even aove 'Q+, the proaility of runaway climate change due to positive
feedac,s is greatly increased, and aove -Q+, where we are currently heading at e&isting
rates of emissions, the proaility is immeasuraly magnified% <ccording to =ames Hansen
and colleaguesF
@If the SadditionalT warming is less than 'Q+, it appears that strong positive feedac,s are
not unleashed, !udging from recent Earth history% 1n the other hand, if global warming
gets well out of this range, there is a possiility that positive feedbac$s could set in motion
climate changes far outside the range of recent e1perience%A
3-
<mong the most dangerous positive feedac,s is the melting of <rctic permafrost, which
contains far more caron than previously elieved% <rctic permafrost contains more caron in
the form of methane than in the entire atmosphere today, three times all industrial
emissions%
37
1nce the permafrost melts, the increased run"off of warmer water melts su"ice
methane clathrates, releasing methane into the atmosphere% 6or the past five years, <las,an
and 2ierian permafrost has een melting, releasing five times more methane than previously
estimated%
3:
Thus, the more gloal warming melts permafrost, the increasing amount of
methane is eing released% Dethane is -4 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than +1
-
% In
2eptemer -44C, an e&pedition organized y the International 2ierian 2helf 2tudy eing
prepared for pulication y the <merican 8eophysical (nion confirmed that millions of
tonnes of su"sea methane are eing released due to rapidly melting <rctic permafrost%
3>
<n
estimated ',:44 8t of caron is trapped as methane under the <rctic permafrost, >"'4 per cent
of which has een punctured due to melting% 2cientists say that a @release of up to >4 8t of
predicted amount of hydrate storage SisT highly possile for arupt release at any timeA . a
quantity equivalent to douling current levels of +1
-
%
3;
<ccording to former (2 Energy
?epartment geologist =ohn <tcheson, the release of this methane signals the impending
danger of a runaway greenhouse effect with e&tinction"level consequencesF
@< temperature increase of merely a few degrees would cause these gases to volatilize
and Burp into the atmosphere, which would further raise temperatures, which would
release yet more methane, heating the Earth and seas further, and so on% Theres :44
gigatons of methane loc,ed in the frozen arctic tundra . enough to start this chain reaction
. and the ,ind of warming the <rctic +ouncil predicts is sufficient to melt the clathrates and
release these greenhouse gases into the atmosphere%
1nce triggered, this cycle could result in runaway gloal warming the li,es of which even
the most pessimistic doomsayers arent tal,ing aoutG The most recent of these
catastrophes occurred aout >> million years ago in what geologists call the *aleocene"
Eocene Thermal Da&imum #*ETD$, when methane urps caused rapid warming and
massive die"offs, disrupting the climate for more than '44,444 years%
The granddaddy of these catastrophes occurred ->' million years ago, at the end of the
*ermian period, when a series of methane urps came close to wiping out all life on Earth%%%
:f we trigger this runaway release of methane, there?s no turning bac$+ No do%overs+ 3nce it
starts, it?s li$ely to play out all the way%A
35
<nother potential source of positive feedac,s are trees and forests, which are not always
capale of acting as sin,s which asor caron in the atmosphere, ut instead can act as net
sources of caron% In the case of the pine forests of western )orth <merica, gloal warming
created a perfect climate for ar, eetles, leading to massive outrea,s of eetle population
rise% This in turn wea,ened the aility of the northern forests to act as a caron sin,, as
documented in NatureF
@?uring outrea,s, the resulting widespread tree mortality reduces forest caron upta,e
and increases future emissions from the decay of ,illed trees% The impacts of insects on
forest caron dynamics, however, are generally ignored in large"scale modelling analyses%%%
This impact converted the forest from a small net caron sin, to a large net carbon source
oth during and immediately after the outrea,%%% Insect outrea,s such as this represent an
important mechanism y which climate change may undermine the ability of northern
forests to ta$e up and store atmospheric carbon%A
3C
Doreover, the tropical forests of the <mazon, the +ongo and /orneo are nearing critical
resiliency due to decreased rainfall from gloal warming%
33
< study y the Dassachusetts"
ased Woods Hole 9esearch +entre in <mazonia concluded that the rainforest cannot sustain
three consecutive years of drought without rea,ing down% In year three, sample trees studied
y the scientists started dying, literally came crashing down, e&posing the forest floor to the
drying sun% /y the end of the year the trees had released more than two"thirds of the caron
dio&ide stored during their lives, thus accelerating climate change% The <mazon rainforest
contains 34 illion tonnes of caron, enough in itself to increase the rate of global warming
by 50 per cent%
'44
<s gloal temperatures rise, the <mazon is thus increasingly at ris,% 9ecent
research shows that intensifying droughts in the <mazon are lin,ed to warmer sea surface
temperatures in the tropical <tlantic 1cean% Hence climate models increasingly forecast a
dire future for the <mazon rainforest% <s the tropical <tlantic warms, the southern <mazon is
li,ely to see higher temperatures and less rainfall%
'4'
6urther, due to the impact of
deforestation, logging, fires, and drought, the <mazon could e reduced y >> per cent y
-474% The impact of this massive loss of rainforest will result in emissions of '>"-;
*entagrams #*g$ of caron in less than three decades . that is, 15%,A billion metric tonnes of
carbon%
'4-
The massive influ& of caron could accelerate gloal warming y as much as
'%>Q+ on top of the preceding temperature increase% With each rise in temperature, positive
feedac,s such as this would e intensified with irreversile impacts% These in turn would
increase the proaility of an unstoppale escalation of gloal temperatures%
=ust as trees may well end up contriuting further to climate change as gloal warming
accelerates, the same also applies to soil% 1ne quarter of our caron emissions are now eing
asored y the soil, ut its capacity to do so is decreasing% <s gloal warming increases, soil
is increasingly liale to release its stored caron% There is some 744 times as much caron
trapped in the soils as we release each year from urning fossil fuels% 6rom '35C to -447, '7
Dts of caron held in (I soils has een released each year%
'47
<s gloal warming accelerates
microial activity in the soil, the latter will release large quantities of caron%
'4:

<nother ma!or positive feedac, is from water vapour, which in fact is the dominant
greenhouse gas% /ecause water vapour enters the atmosphere via evaporation, the level of
water vapour correlates with temperature% Temperature rise increases the rate of evaporation,
and thus the quantity of water vapour in the atmosphere% Water vapour asors heat and this
also warms the air, which in turn can cause further evaporation% The warming effect of +1
-
emissions amplifies all this y causing more water to evaporate% This in turn increases the
amount of atmospheric water vapour which holds more heat, increasing the warming process%
Water vapour can roughly doule or, in tandem with other positive feedac,s, even triple the
impact of +1
-
warming%
'4>
The cumulative impact of positive feedac,s li,e melting permafrost, failing forests
activated soil, and water vapour on climate change is difficult to imagine, ut it is clear that
they pose the danger of triggering rapid, irreversile changes to ,ey climate su"systems once
greenhouse gases aove 7>4ppm are in the atmosphere for a prolonged period #we are
currently appro&imately 5> ppm aove this level$% /eyond this limit, the impact of such rapid
and irreversile changes ma,es it increasingly proale that the gloal climate system itself
will e tipped over into a process of runaway warming%
+onventional climate models tend to omit the impact of such positive feedac,s% When
incorporated, the findings are disturing% 2cientists at the Dassachusetts Institute of
Technology #DIT$ in a study pulished y the @ournal of Climate pro!ected that etween
-43' and -'44, gloal average temperature would rise to >%'Q+%
'4;
2imilarly, a ?ecemer
-44C Det 1ffice study concluded that the world could warm y etween >"5Q+ y -'44 at
the current rate of emissions increases%
'45
1n the way, efore -4;4 we could reach an average
gloal temperature of 7": degrees%
'4C
1ne of the most comprehensive yet least pulicised
studies y climate scientists at Oawrence /er,eley )ational Oaoratory and the (niversity of
+alifornia at /er,eley concluded that @gloal temperatures at the end of this century may e
significantly higher than current climate models are predicting,A with global warming
reaching as much as #-C% @If the past is any guide,A said Dargaret Torn from the /er,eley
team, @then when our anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions cause gloal warming, it will
alter earth system processes, resulting in additional atmospheric greenhouse gas loading and
additional warming%A
'43
8iven that ;Q+ is already recognised as a wholly unacceptale level
of warming implicating the potential destruction of most life on the planet, the prospect that
temperatures may rise y CQ+ within this century at current rates of fossil fuel emissions
signals the necessity of urgent preventive action%
1.' A ystemic (ailure
A 'ecord of arly 4arnin#s
The landmar, -445 () I*++ report follows a long spate of diverse scientific assessments
recognizing that our civilizations overe&ploitation of fossil fuels could lead to the demise of
civilization itself% /ut they were for the most part ignored y policyma,ers% We will review a
few e&amples here% +onsider, for instance, the '33- @warning reportA produced y the (nion
of +oncerned 2cientists, signed y over ',>44 memers of national, regional and
international science academies, representing ;3 nations from around the world, including
each of the twelve most populous nations and the nineteen largest economic powers, with the
full list including a ma!ority of the )oel laureates in the sciences% The warning report
announced thatF @Human eings and the natural world are on a collision course% Human
activities inflict harsh and often irreversile damage on the environment and on critical
resources%A These practices constitute a @serious ris,A to human society and the plant and
animal ,ingdoms, threatening to @so alter the living world that it will e unale to sustain life
in the manner that we ,now%A The report condemned @massive tampering with the worlds
interdependent we of life . coupled with the environmental damage inflicted y
deforestation, species loss, and climate change,A and noted that such practices @could trigger
widespread adverse effects, including unpredictale collapses of critical iological systems
whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understandG
@)o more than one or a few decades remain efore the chance to avert the threats we
now confront will e lost and Swith themT the prospects for humanity%%% The developed
nations are the largest polluters in the world today% They must greatly reduce their over
consumption, if we are to reduce pressures on resources and the gloal environment%%% )o
nation can escape from in!ury when gloal iological systems are damaged% )o nation can
escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce resources%A
''4
=ust under a decade on, such conclusions were reiterated in the (lobal 0nvironment
3utloo$ ,000 #8E1"-444$, launched y the (nited )ations Environmental *rogramme ased
on contriutions from () agencies, C>4 e&perts and 74 environmental institutes% The report
descried a variety of full scale emergenciesF The world water cycle is unli,ely to cope with
demands in coming decadesH land degradation has negated many advances made y increased
agricultural productivityH air pollution is at crisis point in many ma!or citiesH dangerous gloal
warming is inevitale% < survey for 8E1"-444 conducted y the 2cientific +ommittee on
*rolems of the Environment found that according to -44 leading scientists in >4 countries,
water shortage and gloal warming constituted the two gravest prolems, followed y
desertification and deforestation at national and regional levels% /ut 8E1"-444s most ,ey
finding is encapsulated in the following conclusionF @The present course is unsustainale and
postponing action is no longer an option%A
'''

The -44> Dillennium <ssessment report y the (nited )ations . a synthesis of the
research of ',744 e&perts from 3> countries hailed as the most comprehensive survey of the
planets natural life"support systems . found that '> of -: gloal eco"systems were already in
severe declineH human civilization is asoring the Earths natural resources at unsustainale
rea,"nec, speedH and as a consequence, we are in danger of destroying two%thirds of the
0arth?s ecosystems%
''-
The () report warned that the Earth is faced with the emergence of
new diseases, sudden changes in water quality, the creation of coastal Bdead zones, the
collapse of fisheries and drastic shifts in regional climate% This comination of new diseases,
asence of fresh water, continuing decline of fisheries and unpredictale weather was already
having increasingly fatal results% 6or e&ample, half of the uran populations of <frica, <sia,
Oatin <merica and the +ariean suffer from diseases directly associated with gloal
environmental decline, already leading to a death toll of appro1imately 1+ million people a
year% 2imilarly, whole species of mammals, irds and amphiians continue to e made e&tinct
at nearly ',444 times the natural rate%
''7

These reports showed clearly that our Bway of life associated with modern industrial
civilization is deeply implicated in the destruction of our environment% They ac,nowledged
that the ecological damage wrought y anthropogenic climate change is intimately tied to the
structure of the gloal political economyH that gloal warming, ozone depletion, species
e&tinction, pollution, and so on, are ultimately symptoms of modern industrial civilizations
disruption of the Earths life"support systems, implemented in the pursuit of an amoral,
unrestrained drive for economic growth%
'':
<ccordingly, the 8E1"-444 prescried the
necessity of @a shift in values away from material consumption% Without such a shift,
environmental policies can effect only marginal improvements%A
''>
This echoed one of the
earliest warnings from the +lu of 9ome, that avoiding @gloal catastropheA required
@fundamental changes in the values and attitudes of man%%% such as a new ethic and a new
attitude towards nature%A
'';

/ar.et *ailure from 5yoto to Co%enha#en: Too 3ittle& Too 3ate
The response of governmental policyma,ers to such warnings has een decidedly
indifferent% )ot only have governments displayed reluctance to implement ad!ustments
within the systemH they show no intention whatsoever of effecting the necessary changes to
the system itself% 0et greater numers of environmental e&perts from the () to independent
)81s and scientists are eginning to realize that we need some ,ind of systemic
transformation% Indeed, this is precisely the issue that remains thoroughly under"investigated%
+ivilization, in other words, is in denial%
The Iyoto *rotocol . an international legally"inding treaty estalished in '335 and
coming into force in -44> . demanded that industrialized countries reduce their emissions y
only >%- per cent compared to '334 emissions levels y the year -4'-% <part from not eing
ratified y two of the larger emitters, the (2 and <ustralia, the *rotocol also treated +hina
and India, oth ma!or fossil fuel emitters, as Bnon"industrialized countries% The *rotocol also
lac,ed enforcement mechanisms for reduction targets which were already far too modest% <s
*rofessor 8wyn *rins of the Oondon 2chool of Economics noted, actual emissions of the E(
. the leading proponent of Iyoto . had risen y at least '4 per cent, a figure which was
@massagedA partly y @including off"sets purchased under the () +lean ?evelopment
Dechanism #+?D$F off"sets that were not real and, in many cases, fraudulent%A
''5
The +?D
facilitated an international caron trading scheme which, although intended to reward less
developed countries investing in renewale energy technologies, in practice @is handing out
illions of dollars to chemical, coal and oil corporations and the developers of destructive
dams " in many cases for pro!ects they would have uilt anyway%A Two"thirds of the recorded
Bemission reduction credits produced y the +?D from such off"sets @are not ac,ed y real
reductions in pollutionA, ut calculated from purchases of caron offsets @rather than y
decaronising their economies%A 6or e&ample, if a @+hinese mine cuts its methane emissions
under the +?D, there will e no gloal climate enefit ecause the polluter that uys the
offset avoids the oligation to reduce its own emissions%A
''C

In theory, the idea of caron quotas and trading . where each country is assigned an
emissions quota with permits issued to the iggest caron emitters #such as power firms$ .
seems wor,ale% Those companies that reduce emissions and use less than their quota can sell
leftover permits to others which fail to% Each year the quota is reduced, so mar,et forces push
the penalty for emitting greenhouse gases higher% 1utside of the +?D under Iyoto, Europe
has already estalished an emissions trading networ,, and at least nine (2 states have started
trading caron dio&ide among themselves%
''3
/ut in practice, fossil fuel emissions have
continued to escalate without relief% 6or instance, the E(s Emissions Trading 2cheme #ET2$
was from the outset compromised y corporate power, which pressured states to over"allocate
emissions rights to the very industries most responsile for fossil fuel pollution%
+onsequently, the price of caron dropped y over ;4 per cent, reducing incentives to invest
in renewale energies% /ritains heaviest polluting industries together earned V3:4 million
profits from the first year of the scheme%
'-4
8iven the impotence of the Iyoto *rotocol, hopes were high that the +openhagen summit
in -443 might produce a deal with more teeth% (nfortunately, this was not to e% The resulting
<ccord etween the (2, +hina, India, /razil and 2outh <frica, although @recognizedA y the
'37 countries present, was not legally"inding% The document @recognizes the scientific view
thatA gloal average temperatures should not rise eyond - degrees +elsius . although as
noted the scientific evidence supports a far lower ma&imum temperature range within aout '
degree% /ut despite this recognition, no year for the pea, of caron emissions is indicated, nor
are countries compelled to pledge emissions reductions necessary to respect even the -
degree limit% 9ather, they are e&pected to simply declare their own -4-4 emissions reduction
targets, and no penalties are estalished even to enforce these%
'-'

2tated emissions pledges were minimalist% *resident 1ama pledged to reduce emissions
y only '5 per cent from -44> levels y -4-4 . : per cent elow the more conventional '334
enchmar,, and still far too insignificant to prevent dangerous climate change% 2imilarly, the
E( pledged a roughly -4 per cent reduction from '334 levels . etter than the (2, ut still
ineffective% (nder the +limate +hange <ct passed in -44C, the (I had already pledged to a
7: per cent reduction in caron dio&ide emissions y -4-4, and an C4 per cent reduction y
-4>4 #against the '334 aseline$%
'--
0et the (I e&ample illustrates e&actly the ineffectiveness
of pledges su!ect solely to the domestic discretion of respective national governments% The
+limate +hange <ct, for instance, grants the 2ecretary of 2tate the power to amend the C4 per
cent reduction target, and to amend the ase year against which it is measured% It currently
e&cludes emissions from aviation and international shipping% In =une -44C, the /ritish
government dropped the demand for (I companies to declare their annual caron emissionsH
and the necessity for 54 per cent of the targets to e met y actual emissions cuts, rather than
through uying caron off"sets from less developed countries, although commendaly the
five"year caron udget scheme will limit the latter%
'-7

1verall, the international caron trading and offset schemes at the focus of government
efforts to deal with climate change are increasingly an arena y which powerful vested
interests can e&ploit fears aout gloal warming to consolidate unprecedented profits . and
Oondon is at its centre% <ccording to the New Bor$ &imes, @/ritish companies were the
leading gloal investors in caron pro!ectsA and @more caron was traded in Oondon than in
any other city%A The newspaper noted that emissions management is @one of the fastest"
growing segments in financial services, and companies are scramling for talent% Their goalF
a slice of a mar,et now worth aout E74 illion, ut which could grow to E' trillion within a
decade%A Oouis 9edshaw, head of environmental mar,ets at /arclays +apital, predicted thatF
@+aron will e the worlds iggest commodity mar,et, and it could ecome the worlds
iggest mar,et overall%A
'-:
2imilarly, <ndrew <ger, head of emissions trading at /ache
+ommodities in Oondon predicts that the caron mar,et @could grow to around E7tn
compared to the V'%>tn mar,et there is for oil%A
'->
The prolem is that y accepting neolieral capitalist mar,ets as a given, caron trading
overloo,s the systemic origins of climate change% 2uch mar,et"oriented solutions are inspired
y <urey Deyers B+ontraction J +onvergence #+J+$ model of action for gloal
emissions reductions% B+ontraction requires the adoption of a safe target for atmospheric
+1
-
, as the asis for calculating a declining progression of annual gloal emissions toward
that target y a specific target year, as agreed on the asis of climate science% B+onvergence
requires the assignment of annual emissions quotas to each country which converge toward a
common level of per capita emissions y the target year% <dded to this is a mar,et"ased
caron"trading plan to permit wealthier, high emitters to purchase emissions rights from
poorer, low emitters%
'-;
The prolem with the +J+ model is not the model itself . which certainly identities one
viale path of gloal action . ut the lac, of attention to the socio"political and economic
structures that prevent policyma,ers from genuinely implementing the +J+ model in the first
place% Inattention to the deeper structural and systemic issues means that the current policy
processes inspired y the +J+ model in practice wor, to sustain inequitale political and
economic structures, while continuing to escalate fossil fuel emissions% Indeed, a damning
-443 report from ?eutsche /an,s <sset Danagement ?ivision reports that caron mar,ets
are unli,ely to contriute to significant emissions reductions @for the foreseeale futureA, and
will not encourage sufficient investments in renewale energy% The report called instead for
governments to introduce stronger incentives such as feed"in tariffs%
'-5
8iven that mar,et"
mechanisms alone are ound to fail, the question remains as to why governments are
reluctant to go eyond them% 1verall, Western government attitudes to climate change . as
principally a prolem of reducing +1
-
emissions y introducing new mar,et mechanisms that
penalize caron emission . are premised on a remar,ale self"deceptionF that we can
continue hydrocaron e&ploitation, and the pursuit of economic growth, while simultaneously
saving the climate%
This failed paradigm is evident from one of the most celerated contriutions to deate, the
"tern Review on the 0conomics of Climate Change, on which much (I and Western
government climate policies are ased% It concludes that y investing one percent of gloal
8?* #revised upwards to two per cent in -44C$ it would e possile to avoid the worst effects
of climate change, while failure to do so could damage gloal 8?* y up to twenty percent%
To his credit, report author 2ir )icholas 2tern, then head of the (I 8overnment Economic
2ervice, recognized this failure would constitute the most monumental mar$et failure the
world has ever seen% 0et as illustrated y the corporate co"optation of the gloal caron
mar,et seen aove, this would e less a mar,et failure than an integral function of mar$et
behaviour under neoliberal capitalism motivated y short"term profit ma&imization% In this
conte&t, 2terns recommendation to introduce mar,et mechanisms that would generate
incentives for caron cuts are wide off"the"mar,%
'-C

The prolem is that neither Iyoto nor +openhagen provide a clear plan for how the world
is to re"configure its energy supply to renewale sources and reduce consumption premised
on hydrocaron"dependency% While offering no meaningful impact on curtailing our
tra!ectory toward climate catastrophe, current policies do provide a way of piling huge costs
on the pulic, drastically increasing state revenues, and facilitating corporate profiteering .
without actually solving the causes of the climate prolem% This unfortunately feeds the
suspicion that Western governments are e&ploiting climate hysteria to consolidate their own
questionale political and economic programmes% :n summary, current emissions reductions
policies will effectively escalate C3
,
emissions further, at levels liable to propel global
warming onwards well after the , degree tipping point and into the realm of increasingly
dangerous and rapid climate change%
(nfortunately, it appears that alarming strategic decisions have already een made% In -44C,
the /ritish governments chief scientific advisers pulicly asserted that a 8-C rise in global
temperatures is most probably inevitable and irreversible, and that the tas, for governments
now is not so much preventing dangerous climate change, as is adapting to the e&treme
conditions it will unavoidaly ring% The governments chief scientific adviser to the
?epartment of Environment, 6ood J 9ural <ffairs, *rofessor /o Watson descried the -Q+
tipping"point as an unrealistic upper limitF @/ut given this is an amitious target, and we
dont ,now in detail how to limit greenhouse gas emissions to realise a - degree target, we
should e prepared to adapt to :Q+%A The governments former chief scientific adviser 2ir
?avid Iing ac,ed Watsons position, arguing that @even with a comprehensive gloal deal
to ,eep caron dio&ide levels in the atmosphere at elow :>4 parts per million there is a >4
per cent proaility that temperatures would e&ceed -Q+ and a -4 per cent proaility they
would e&ceed 7%>Q+%A
'-3

This indicates that )orthern governments have accepted as inevitale the catastrophic
consequences of gloal warming well after -Q+, after which irreversile climate change
ecomes increasingly proale, and have even settled for accepting the consequences of
gloal warming up to :Q+, at which level rapid, runaway warming becomes a foregone and
irreversible conclusion% 2ome of the consequences of these scenarios were outlined y
environment writer Dar, Oynas, summarising the findings of his oo,, "i1 'egreesF
@The impacts of two degrees warming are ad enough, ut far worse is in store if
emissions continue to rise% Dost importantly, 7Q+ may e the Btipping point where gloal
warming could run out of control, leaving us powerless to intervene as planetary
temperatures soar% The centre of this predicted disaster is the <mazon, where the tropical
rainforest, which today e&tends over millions of square ,ilometres, would urn down in a
firestorm of epic proportions%
+omputer model pro!ections show worsening droughts ma,ing <mazonian trees, which
have no evolved resistance to fire, much more susceptile to urning% 1nce this drying
trend passes a critical threshold, any spar, could light the firestorm which destroys almost
the entire rainforest ecosystem% 1nce the trees have gone, desert will appear and the caron
released y the forests urning will e !oined y still more from the worlds soils% This
could oost gloal temperatures y a further '%>Q+ . tipping us straight into the four"degree
world%
Three degrees alone would see increasing areas of the planet eing rendered essentially
uninhaitale y drought and heat% In southern <frica, a huge e&panse centred on /otswana
could see a remoilisation of old sand dunes, much as is pro!ected to happen earlier in the
(2 west% This would wipe out agriculture and drive tens of millions of climate refugees out
of the area% The same situation could also occur in <ustralia, where most of the continent
will now fall outside the elts of regular rainfall%
With e&treme weather continuing to ite . hurricanes may increase in power y half a
category aove todays top"level +ategory 6ive . world food supplies will e critically
endangered% This could mean hundreds of millions . or even illions . of refugees moving
out from areas of famine and drought in the su"tropics towards the mid"latitudes% In
*a,istan, for e&ample, food supplies will crash as the waters of the Indus decline to a tric,le
ecause of the melting of the Iara,oram glaciers that form the rivers source% +onflicts
may erupt with neighouring India over water use from dams on Indus triutaries that cross
the order%
In northern Europe and the (I, summer drought will alternate with e&treme winter
flooding as torrential rainstorms sweep in from the <tlantic " perhaps ringing storm surge
flooding to vulnerale low"lying coastlines as sea levels continue to rise% Those areas still
ale to grow crops and feed themselves, however, may ecome some of the most valuale
real estate on the planet, esieged y millions of climate refugees from the south%A
'74
0et even these catastrophic scenarios, now considered inevitale, may e deeply
conservative% Ievin <nderson from the Tyndall +entre for +limate +hange 9esearch at
Danchester (niversity argues that it is @improaleA that the atmospheric concentration of
+1
-
could e restricted to A50 ppm even with @draconian emission reductions within a
decade%A
'7'
<t ;>4 ppm, according to Hansens analysis ta,ing account of positive feedac,s
underplayed y the I*++, the Earths average temperature would rise well beyond A-C,
creating an uninhabitable world potentially a decade before ,100% <nd with governments
and corporate emitters continuing usiness"as"usual, even this is a conservative scenario,
suggesting that we may trigger a runaway warming process as early as mid"century%
<ll this raises fundamental questions aout the nature of state contingency"planning for the
impact of climate change from a national security framewor,, which entails not merely the
local impacts of gloal warming, ut also the wide"ranging ramifications in terms of massive
migrations, food shortages, water shortages, greater propensity for competition and conflict
over resources, and the magnified danger of civil unrest% 6rom a national security outloo,,
climate change ecomes an issue of moilizing state resources to protect e&isting structures
of political and economic power, y controlling increasingly volatile domestic and
international populations% +lassified studies y the (2 intelligence community have already
red"flagged @regional partnersA of the (2 in ,ey strategic regions in <frica, +entral <sia and
the Diddle East, who are li,ely to face severe prolems, and whose identities remain
confidential to avoid diplomatic frictions% +limate change is thus viewed as a @threat"
multiplierA to traditional security issues such as @political instaility around the world, the
collapse of governments and the creation of terrorist safe havens%A /y implication, climate
change will serve to amplify the threat of international terrorism, particularly in regions with
large populations and scarce resources%
'7-
The focus, then, is not on avoiding dangerous or even catastrophic climate change, ut on
maintaining usiness"as"usual while developing new security"framewor,s to sustain the
fundamental structures of the gloal political economy, despite the massive human and social
costs% The climate change discourse endorsed y Western officialdom '$ evades the mounting
evidence of the e&ponential acceleration of climate change within the ne&t few decades long
efore the -'44 mar,H -$ overloo,s the question of our civilizations relations of energy
production, that is our fundamental dependence on hydrocarbon energy sources, li,e oil, gas
and coalH and 7$ ignores the gloal political economys structural imperative for unlimited
economic growth leading to unsustainale levels of fossil fuel e&ploitation%
6or while the worldwide consumer demand for energy will continue to rise, the necessity of
slashing our +1
-
emissions oviously requires a corresponding drastic drop in energy
consumption% How governments will continue to sustain the ooming energy requirements of
their societies, while still reducing hydrocaron energy consumption to reduce emissions
without re"arranging the structure of the economy, remains a mystery% Without addressing the
specific mechanisms y which societies will eventually cease to rely on the e&ploitation of
hydrocaron energies though a multi"illion dollar crash programme to transform the gloal
energy system, meaningful +1
-
reduction is wholly impossile%
+orrespondingly, the question of reducing world consumption of hydrocaron resources is
also tied to issues around sustaining industrial agriculture, which is fundamentally dependent
on supplies of cheap petroleum% The imperative to reduce oil"dependency to cut +1
-
emissions raises questions aout how world food production can simultaneously e
maintained to feed a growing planetary population% 8iven that climate change threatens to
generate intensifying water shortages and droughts affecting the worlds leading agricultural
regions, a usiness"as"usual approach suggests that a permanently altered climate will involve
a future of grossly inadequate food and water supplies% There is no dout, then, that the
fallout of a usiness"as"usual approach to climate change would e catastrophic . indicating
the need to dispense with the neolieral model of unlimited growth% :gnoring the
instrumental role of the Cgrowth imperative? as a systemic pressure rooted in the structure of
the global political economy guarantees the continuation of global warming+
<s /ritish environmentalist 8eorge Doniot points out, to avoid dangerous climate change
the entire world must dramatically reduce greenhouse gases y no less than 34 per cent y
-474 #in fact, it should e before ,0,0, with further efforts to remove caron from the
atmosphere through caron sequestration to capture and store it safely, among other methods,
according to Hansen$% ?oing so, he shows, would require large"scale changes in the
infrastructure of Western societies to downsize energy consumption and revert to renewale
energies% Doniot focuses, for instance, on a comination of state"led technocratic solutions
designed to transform mar,ets and impose strict regulations on all emissions"generating
activities, includingF finding improved ways to uild homes and other uildings ased on an
optimal comination of renewale and non"renewale energy sourcesH radically changing
land transportation ut without reducing moilityH firmly curtailing air travelH and massively
curing greenhouse gas emissions of the retail and cement industriesH ac,ed"up y a
comprehensive emissions trading plan and international caron"rationing scheme%
'77

Whatever the shortfalls of some of these policy solutions, the overarching ostacle to their
implementation is that oth states and mar,ets concurrently operate in the conte&t of the
une>ual structure of the global political economyD the @psychological grip of capitalist
consumption patternsAH and are both sub*ect to the pressures of powerful vested interests .
li,e the @fossil fuel loy, heavy industry, airlinesA, and so on% 8overnment policies are
currently tied closely to these structures, and cannot shift sufficiently unless they are
transformed%
'7:
It is therefore essential to account for the central necessity of fundamental
transformation in the socio"political, economic, ideological and ethical structure of the gloal
system . starting with the e&tent to which vested financial interested are tied to the gloal
hydrocaron energy systemF a hierarchical structure of geopolitical domination y core
)orthern states over a networ, of peripheral states in regions li,e the Diddle East, +entral
<sia and West <frica containing the ul, of the worlds strategic oil and gas reserves%
'

This is the primary preoccupation of most studies of climate change y scholars of international relations and political
science% 1ne of the etter and accessile e&amples of this is 8wynne ?yer, Climate =ars #OondonF 9andom House
+anada, -44C$%
-

=ohn +oo,, @Human +1- is a tiny W of +1- emissionsA, "$eptical "cience
XhttpFMMwww%s,epticalscience%comMhuman"co-"smaller"than"natural"emissions%htmY +oo, documents these points using
scientific papers pulished in Nature and "cience% <lso see )iels /ohr Institute *ress 9elease, @Ice cores reveal
fluctuations in the Earths greenhouse gasesA #': Day -44C$ XhttpFMMwww%ni%,u%d,MenglishMnewsMgreenhouseZgasesY
7

2ee for e&ample =ames Hansen and <ndrew Oacis, et% al, @How sensitive is the worlds climate?A, Research E
01ploration #'337, Nol% 3, )o -$ XhttpFMMpus%giss%nasa%govMdocsM'337M'337ZHansenZetalZ'%pdfYH =% D% 8regory and 9%
=% 2touffer, et% al, @<n 1servationally /ased Estimate of the +limate 2ensitivityA, @ournal of Climate #'> )ovemer
-44-, Nol% '>, )o% --$ XhttpFMMwww%gfdl%noaa%govMreferenceMiliographyM-44-M!mgregory4-4'%pdfY 6or more
references see =ohn +oo,, @+limate sensitivity is lowA XhttpFMMwww%s,epticalscience%comMclimate"sensitivity%htmY
:

I*++ 9eport, Climate Change ,002 &he !hysical "cience 5asis ; "ummary for !olicyma$ers, +ontriution of
Wor,ing 8roup I to the 6ourth <ssessment 9eport of the Intergovernmental *anel on +limate +hange #8enevaF (nited
)ations Environment *rogramme, 6eruary -445$ XhttpFMMipcc"
wg'%ucar%eduMwg'MdocsMW8'<9:Z2*DZ*lenary<pproved%pdfYH for a asic summary see () )ews +entre, @Evidence
is now Bunequivocal that humans are causing gloal warmingA #- 6eruary -445$
XhttpFMMwww%un%orgMappsMnewsMstory%asp?)ewsI?[-':-3J+r[climateJ+r'[changeYH
>

2eth 2hulman, Iate <end and <lden Deyer, "mo$e, Firrors E Got 6ir2 Gow 011onFobil Hses 5ig &obacco?s
&actics to Fanufacture Hncertainty on Climate "cience #+amridge, D<F (nion of +oncerned 2cientists, =anuary
-445$ XhttpFMMwww%ucsusa%orgMassetsMdocumentsMgloalZwarmingMe&&onZreport%pdfY
;

)aomi 1res,es, @/eyond the Ivory TowerF The 2cientific +onsensus on +limate +hangeA, "cience #7 ?ecemer
-44:, vol% 74;, no% >54-$ pp% ';CC XhttpFMMwww%sciencemag%orgMcgiMcontentMfullM74;M>54-M';C;Y
5

The 7: astracts can e inspected online at Tim Oamert, @*eisners 7: astractsA #; Day -44>$
XhttpFMMtimlamert%orgM-44>M4>MpeiserY
C

</+ Dedia Watch, @/olts Dinority NiewA #74 1ctoer -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%ac%net%auMmediawatchMtranscriptsMs'5554'7%htmY
3

Iid% < more recent attempt at refutation has come from an endocrinologist, Ilaus"Dartin 2chulte who claimed that ;
per cent of >73 astracts reviewed from =anuary -44: to 6eruary -445 re!ect the consensus, and that @fewer than half
now endorse it%A The paper was eventually pulished y 0nergy E 0nvironment, which is a social science, not a
physical science, !ournal, and is not recognized as peer"reviewed% 2ee Ilaus"Dartin 2chulte, @2cientific +onsensus on
+limate +hange?A 0nergy E 0nvironment #Darch -44C, Nol% '3, )o -$ pp% -C'"-C;% 6urther, a detailed e&amination of
the paper shows that the @fewer than halfA are simply papers that say nothing either way aout anthropogenic climate
change ecause of their focus on specific issuesH while the alleged ; per cent that purportedly re!ect climate change
either do not do so, or are unconvincing and not properly peer"reviewed% Highlighting seven of the est papers flagged"
up as re!ecting human"induced gloal warming y 2chulte, Tim Oamert of the (niversity of )ew 2outh Wales, for
instance, demonstrates how ad or irrelevant they really are% 2ee Oamert, @+lassifying astracts on gloal climate
changeA #74 <ugust -445$ XhttpFMMsciencelogs%comMdeltoidM-445M4CMclassifyingZastractsZonZgloa%phpY Worse still, a
close analysis y =ohn Dashey, former chief scientist at 2ilicon, concludes that 2chulte @commits clear #and incredily
silly and incompetent$ plagiarism% He claims competence at a tas, where his own words show him to lac, such
competence% He cooperates closely with well",nown contrariansMdenialists who lac, relevant scientific e&pertise, ut
generate masses ofG disinformation% Even after eing e&posed as a plagiarist, he persists in writing threatening letters
to an e&pert in the field%A 2ee Dashey, @<nother <ttac, on 8loal Warmings 2cientific +onsensusA #-7 Darch -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%desmoglog%comMsitesMeta%desmoglog%comMfilesMmonc,tonW-4schulteW-4ores,es
W-45W-44W-4W-C-W-3%pdfY
'4

(2 2enate Environment and *ulic Wor,s +ommittee, @1ver :44 *rominent 2cientists ?isputed Dan"Dade 8loal
Warming +laims in -445A #-4 ?ecemer -445$ XhttpFMMepw%senate%govMpulicMinde&%cfm?
6use<ction[Dinority%2enate9eportY
''

+29 2ummary of 6ederal Election +ommission ?ata, @Top Industries . 2enator =ames Inhofe -44>"-4'4A
#WashingtonF +enter for 9esponsive *olitics, 3 <ugust -443$ XhttpFMMwww%opensecrets%orgMpoliticiansMindustries%php?
type[+Jcid[)4444>>C-JnewDem[)Jcycle[-4'4Y
'-

Dar, N% =ohnson, @Inhofes :44 8loal Warming ?eniers ?eun,edA, &he 'aily (reen #'' =anuary -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%thedailygreen%comMenvironmental"newsMlatestMinhofe"gloal"warming"deniers":54'''4'Y% < detailed
rea,down of the list is provided y =ohnson here XhttpFMMwww%thedailygreen%comMenvironmental"newsMlatestMinhofe"
gloal"warming"deniers"scientists":;4''44CY
'7

+ited in =oseph 9omm, @Dore on the Bscientific attac,s on gloal warmingA, (ristmill #-5 ?ecemer -445$
XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-445M'-M-'M';:7;M5'4Y
':

Iid%
'>

?essler, @The BInhofe :44F /usting the Bconsensus usters,A #-5 ?ecemer -445$
XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-445M'-M-;M'35'M;>'5YH @The BInhofe :44 2,eptic of the ?ayA #'> =anuary -44C$
XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-44CM'M':M-7'-7;M4'3YH XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-44CM'M'M'C->>CM3;'>Y #-
=anuary -44C$% 2cientist ?essler continues to e&pose individuals on the Inhofe list at this column%
';

(2 2enate Dinority 9eport, @Dore Than ;>4 International 2cientists ?issent 1ver Dan"Dade 8loal Warming
+laimsA #'' ?ecemer -44C$ XhttpFMMepw%senate%govMpulicMinde&%cfm?
6use<ction[Dinority%/logsJ+ontent9ecordZid[-;5:e;:f"C4-a"-7ad":34"d3faf:dcd5Y
'5

/radford *lumer, @Inhofes ;>4 B?issenters #Da,e That ;:3G ;:CG$A, &he New Republic #'> ?ecemer -44C$
XhttpFMMlogs%tnr%comMtnrMlogsMenvironmentandenergyMarchiveM-44CM'-M'>Minhofe"s";>4"quot"dissenters"quot"ma,e"
that";:3";:C%asp&Y
'C

<n e&cellent and e&haustive step"y"step review of each individual on the list, their qualifications, and their
arguments, is eing provided and updated here XhttpFMM;>4list%logspot%comY
'3

<8( *osition 2tatement, @Human Impacts on +limateA #Washington ?+F <merican 8eophysical (nion, ?ecemer
-445$ XhttpFMMwww%agu%orgMsciZsocMpolicyMpositionsMclimateZchange-44C%shtmlY
-4

2ee XhttpFMMwww%eastangliaemails%comMemails%php?eid['>:Jfilename[3:-55545>%t&tY
-'

?avid Oungren, @E*W *olicy /eatF BHide the ?eclineA #': ?ecemer -443$
XhttpFMMepw%senate%govMpulicMinde&%cfm?6use<ction[Dinority%/logsJ+ontent9ecordZid[Cf';>>-a"C4-a"-7ad":;>f"
CC>CeC>ac-JIssueZid[Y
--

(nion of +oncerned 2cientists, @?eun,ing Disinformation <out 2tolen +limate Emails in the B+limategate
Danufactured +ontroversyA #'' ?ecemer -443$
XhttpFMMwww%ucsusa%orgMgloalZwarmingMscienceZandZimpactsMgloalZwarmingZcontrariansMdeun,ing"
misinformation"stolen"emails"climategate%htmlY
-7

I% 8% (so,,en and D% 2chussler, et% al, @2olar <ctivity 1ver the Oast ''>4 0earsF ?oes it +orrelate with
+limate?A#Ilatenurg"OindauF Da& *lanc, Institute for 2olar 2ystem 9esearch, =uly -44:$
XhttpFMMwww%mps%mpg%deMdo,umenteMpuli,ationenMsolan,iMc'>7%pdfY p% --
-:

2% I% 2olan,i and I% 8% (so,,en, et% al, @(nusual activity of the 2un during the recent decades compared to the
previous '',444 yearsA, Nature #-C 1ctoer -44:, vol% :7'$ p% '4C5
XhttpFMMcc%oulu%fiMPusos,inMpersonalMnature4-33>%pdfY
->

Di,e Ooc,wood and +laus 6rohlich, @9ecently oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the gloal
mean surface air temperatureA, !roceedings of the Royal "ociety #-> Day -445$
XhttpFMMpulishing%royalsociety%orgMmediaMproceedingsZaMrspa-445'CC4%pdfY
-;

<% /erger, @Eight glacial cycles from an <ntarctic ice coreA, Nature #'4 =une -44:, Nol% :-3$ pp% ;-7.;-C
XhttpFMMwww%nature%comMnatureM!ournalMv:-3Mn;33-MasMnature4->33%htmlYH <% /erger and D% 6% Ooutre, @<n
E&ceptionally Oong Interglacial <head?A "cience #<ugust -44-, Nol% -35, )o% >>C>$ pp% '-C5.'-CC
XhttpFMMwww%sciencemag%orgMcgiMcontentMsummaryM-35M>>C>M'-C5Y
-5

?on =% Easterroo,, @The )e&t -> 0earsF 8loal Warming of 8loal +ooling? . 8eological and 1ceanographic
Evidence for +yclical +limate 1scillationsA #/oulder, +1F 8eological 2ociety of <merica <nnual Deeting, >"C
)ovemer -44'$ <lso see the more recent revamping of this argument in Easterroo,, @8loal cooling is hereA
#DontrealF +entre for 9esearch on 8loalization, - )ovemer -44C$ XhttpFMMwww%gloalresearch%caMinde&%php?
conte&t[vaJaid['45C7Y
-C

=ohn +ross and =ohn +oo,, @Is *acific ?ecadel 1scillation the 2mo,ing 8un?A, "$eptical "cience #7 Day -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%s,epticalscience%comMIs"*acific"?ecadal"1scillation"the"2mo,ing"8un%htmlY
-3

)% 2% Ieenlyside and D% Oatif, et% al, @<dvancing decadal"scale climate prediction in the )orth <tlantic sectorA,
Nature #' Day -44C, Nol% :>7$ XhttpFMMwww%usclivar%orgM*usM-Day4CIeenlyside%pdfY
74

2ee @8loal +ooling . Wanna /et?A and @The 8loal +ooling /et . *art -A at 9eal +limate #Day -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%realclimate%orgMinde&%phpMarchivesM-44CM4>Mgloal"cooling"wanna"etY and
XhttpFMMwww%realclimate%orgMinde&%phpMarchivesM-44CM4>Mthe"gloal"cooling"et"part"-Y
7'

=oseph 9omm, @)ature article on Bcooling confuses media, deniersF )e&t decade may see rapid warmingA, Climate
!rogress #- Day -44C$ XhttpFMMclimateprogress%orgM-44CM4>M4-Mnature"article"on"cooling"confuses"rev,in"media"
deniers"ne&t"decade"may"see"rapid"warmingY
7-

/o +arter, @There I2 a prolem with gloal warmingG it stopped in '33CA, &elegraph #3 <pril -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%telegraph%co%u,MopinionMmain%!html?&ml[MopinionM-44;M4:M43Mdo4345%&mlY
77

?avid Whitehouse, @Has gloal warming stopped?A, New "tatesman #'3 ?ecemer -445$
XhttpFMMwww%newstatesman%comMscitechM-445M'-Mgloal"warming"temperatureY
7:

Det 1ffice, @+limate +hange . 6act -F temperatures continue to riseA #-44C$
XhttpFMMwww%metoffice%gov%u,McorporateMpressofficeMmythsM-%htmlY
7>

=ohn +oo,, @?id gloal warming stop in '33C?A, "$eptical "cience XhttpFMMwww%s,epticalscience%comMgloal"
warming"stopped"in"'33C%htmY
7;

9oger Harrain, @8loal temperatures to BdecreaseA //+ )ews #: <pril -44C$
XhttpFMMnews%c%co%u,M-MhiMscienceMnatureM57-3533%stmY
75

<nthony Watts, @: sources say Bgloally cooler in the past '- monthsA, =atts Hp =ith &hatI #'3 6eruary -44C$
XhttpFMMwattsupwiththat%comM-44CM4-M'3M!anuary"-44C":"sources"say"gloally"cooler"in"the"past"'-"monthsY
7C

Dichael <sher, @Temperature Donitors 9eport Widescale 8loal +oolingA, 'aily&ech #-; 6eruary -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%dailytech%comMTemperature\Donitors\9eport\Widescale\8loal\+oolingMarticle'4C;;%htmY
73

Dichael <sher, @2olar <ctivity ?iminishesF 9esearchers *redict <nother Ice <geA, 'aily&ech #3 6eruary -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%dailytech%comM2olar\<ctivity\?iminishes\9esearchers\*redict\<nother\Ice\<geMarticle'4;74%htmY
:4

+harles ?% +amp and Ia Iit Tung, @2urface warming y the solar cycle as revealed y the composite mean
difference pro!ectionA, (eophysical Research )etters #'C =uly -44C, Nol% 7:$
XhttpFMMwww%amath%washington%eduMPcdcampM*uM+ampZTungZ89OZ-445%pdfY =ohn +oo,, @8loal coolingF the new
,id on the loc,A, "$eptical "cience #: Darch -44C$ XhttpFMMwww%s,epticalscience%comM8loal"cooling"the"new",id"on"
the"loc,%htmlY
:'

)+<9 )ews 9elease, @2cientists Issue (nprecedented 6orecast of )e&t 2unspot +ycleA #/oulder, +oF (niversity
+orporation for <tmospheric 9esearch, ; Darch -44;$ XhttpFMMwww%ucar%eduFC4MnewsMreleasesM-44;Msunspot%shtmlY
:-

*eter 2chwartz and ?oug 9andall, @<n <rupt +limate +hange 2cenario and its Implications for (nited 2tates
)ational 2ecurityA #WashingtonF ?epartment of ?efense, 1ctoer -447$ pp% '"7,
XhttpFMMwww%climate%orgM*?6MclimZchangeZscenario%pdfYH Dar, Townsend and *aul Harris, @)ow the *entagon tells
/ushF climate change will destroy usA, 3bserver #-- 6eruary -44:$
XhttpFMMoserver%guardian%co%u,MinternationalMstoryM4,;347,''>7>'7,44%htmlY 6or a detailed analysis see ?ave We,
@Thin,ing the WorstF The *entagon 9eportA in ?avid +romwell and Dar, Oevene #ed%$ "urviving Climate Change2 &he
"truggle to 6vert (lobal Catastrophe #OondonF *luto *ress, -445$
:7

Ian Traynor, @+limate change may spar, conflict with 9ussia, E( toldA, (uardian #'4 Darch -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MworldM-44CMmarM'4Meu%climatechange?gusrc[rssJfeed[networ,frontY
::

2chwartz and 9andall, op% cit%H Townsend and Harris, op% cit%
:>

I*++ 6ourth <ssessment 9eport, +limate +hange -445 SWor,ing 8roup 'T #+amridgeF +amridge (niversity
*ress, 6eruary -445$% <vailale online, XhttpFMMipcc"wg'%ucar%eduMwg'Mwg'Zhome%htmlY
:;

Dar, Oynas, "i1 'egrees2 3ur 4uture in a Gotter !lanet #OondonF Harper+ollins 6ourth Estate, -445$
:5

2ee 9ichard 8irling, @To the ends of the EarthA, "unday &imes Fagazine #'> Darch -445$
XhttpFMMwww%timesonline%co%u,MtolMnewsMu,MscienceMarticle':C4;;3%eceY
:C

+atherine /rahic, @+aron emissions rising faster than everA, )ew 2cientist )ews 2ervice
XhttpFMMwww%newscientist%comMarticleMdn'4>45"caron"emissions"rising"faster"than"ever%htmlY
:3

Dichael 9% 9aupach, 8regg Darland, *hilippe +iais, et% al, @8loal and regional drivers of accelerating +1-
emissions,A !roceedings of the National 6cademy of "ciences #'- =une -445, Nol% '4:, )o% -:, pp% '4-CC"'4-37$
XhttpFMMwww%pnas%orgMcontentM'4:M-:M'4-CC%astractY
>4

Iid%
>'

=uliet Eilperin, @+aron is /uilding (p in <tmosphere 6aster than *redictedA, =ashington !ost #-; 2eptemer
-44C$ XhttpFMMwww%washingtonpost%comMwp"dynMcontentMarticleM-44CM43M->M<9-44C43->473C3%html?
hpid[moreheadlinesY
>-

*eter D% +o&, 9ichard <% /etts, +hris ?% =ones, 2tephen <% 2pall, Ian =% Totterdell, @<cceleration of gloal warming
due to caron"cycle feedac,s in a coupled climate modelA, Nature #3 )ovemer -444, Nol% :4C, )o% ;C43$ pp% 'C:"5H
?avid Wasdell, @6eedac, ?ynamics and the <cceleration of +limate +hangeF <n (pdate of the 2cientific <nalysisA,
Deridian *rogramme #OondonF Darch -445$ XhttpFMMwww%meridian%org%u,M9esourcesM8loalW-4?ynamicsM6eedac,
W-4?ynamicsMinde&%htmY
>7

9ichard 8irling, @To the ends of the EarthA, "unday &imes Fagazine #'> Darch -445$
XhttpFMMwww%timesonline%co%u,MtolMnewsMu,MscienceMarticle':C4;;3%eceY
>:

6red *earce, @+limate report was Bwatered downA, New "cientist #C Darch -445$H ?avid Wasdell, @*olitical
+orruption of the I*++ 9eportF +hanges in the 6inal Te&t of the B2ummary for *olicy Da,ersA, #OondonF Deridian
*rogramme, Darch -445$ XhttpFMMwww%meridian%org%u,M9esourcesM8loalW-4?ynamicsMI*++Minde&%htmY
>>

8eorge Doniot, @The 9eal +limate +ensorshipA, (uardian #'4 <pril -445$
>;

*earce, @+limate reportA, op% cit%
>5

(nion of +oncerned 2cientists and 8overnment <ccountaility *ro!ect, @<tmosphere of *ressureF *olitical
Interference in 6ederal +limate 2cienceA #6eruary -445$
XhttpFMMwww%ucsusa%orgMassetsMdocumentsMscientificZintegrityM<tmosphere"of"*ressure%pdfY The numer of respondents
to the survey was -53%
>C

6red *earce, @8loal meltdownA, (uardian #74 <ugust -44;$
>3

)ational 9esearch +ouncil, 6brupt Climate Change2 :nevitable "urprises #WashingtonF )ational <cademy *ress,
)ational <cademy of 2ciences, -44-$
;4

*earce, @8loal meltdownA, op% cit%
;'

8eoffrey Oean, @<pocalypse )owF How Dan,ind is 2leepwal,ing to the End of the EarthA :ndependent #; 6eruary
-44>$ XhttpFMMnews%independent%co%u,MworldMenvironmentMstory%!sp?story[;4C-43YH Dichael Dc+arthy, @8loal
warmingF passing the Btipping pointA, :ndependent #'' 6eruary -44;$
XhttpFMMnews%independent%co%u,MenvironmentMarticle7::;34%eceYH 12T 9eport, @9apid +limate +hangeA #OondonF
*arliamentary 1ffice of 2cience and Technology, =uly -44>, )o% -:>$
XhttpFMMwww%parliament%u,MparliamentaryZofficesMpostMpus-44>%cfmY
;-

9euters, @8reenhouse gas emissions hit danger mar, . scientistA #3 1ctoer -445$H I*++ 6ourth <ssessment
9eport, "ynthesis Report #)ovemer -445$ XhttpFMMwww%ipcc%chMpdfMassessment"reportMar:MsyrMar:Zsyr%pdfY
;7

He was 2pecial <dviser to three 2ecretaries of 2tate for the Environment from '33'"35 and the statutory advisor to
the /ritish 8overnment on iodiversity from '333"-44>% ?uring -44- he served as an advisor to the +entral *olicy
8roup in the ?eputy *rime Dinisters 1ffice%
;:

Dc+arthy, @8loal warmingF passing the Btipping pointA, op% cit%
;>

*aul /rown, (lobal =arning2 &he )ast Chance for Change #OondonF 8uardian and <J+ /lac,, -4;$%
;;

2tephen /yers and 1lympia =% 2nowe, Feeting the Climate Challenge2 Recommendations of the :nternational
Climate Change &as$force #Oondon, Washington, +anerraF International +limate +hange Tas,force, =anuary -44>$
XhttpFMMwww%americanprogress%orgM,fMclimatechallenge%pdfY Semphasis addedT
;5

Ed *il,ington, @+limate target is not radical enough . studyA, (uardian #5 <pril -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MenvironmentM-44CMaprM45Mclimatechange%caronemissionsYH 2ee =% Hanson, et% al% @Target
atmospheric +1-F Where should humanity aim?A ar]iv%org #5 <pril -44C, revised 'C =une -44C$
XhttpFMMar&iv%orgMasM4C4:%''-;Y <lso see @/iochar potential overloo,edA, =ee$ly &imes #-; =anuary -443$
XhttpFMMwww%wee,lytimesnow%com%auMarticleM-443M4'M-;M:>7'>Znational"news%htmlY
;C

*hilip 2utton, comment on 7>4 ppm limit XhttpFMMnoimpactman%typepad%comMlogM-44CM4;Mthe"planets"mos%htmlY

;3

Interview with ?avid Wasdell #; <ugust -443$H ?avid <dam, @9oll ac, time to safeguard climate, e&pert warnsA,
(uardian #'> 2eptemer -44C$ XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MenvironmentM-44CMsepM'>Mclimatechange%caronemissionsY
54

=onathan Oea,e, @/ritain faces ig chill as ocean current slowsA, "unday &imes #C Day -44>$
XhttpFMMwww%timesonline%co%u,MtolMnewsMu,Marticle>-44'7%eceY
5'

Ian 2ample, @<larm over dramatic wea,ening of the 8ulf 2treamA, (uardian #' ?ecemer -44>$
5-

Luirin 2chiermeier, @1cean circulation noisy, not stallingA, Nature #-445, Nol% ::C, )o% 5'>;$ pp% C::.C:>%
57

Dichael Nellinga and 9ichard <% Wood, @8loal climatic impacts of a collapse of the <tlantic thermohaline
circulation,A #OondonF Det 1ffice, Hadley +entre for +limate *rediction and 9esearch, 6eruary -44'$
XhttpFMMwww%metoffice%gov%u,MresearchMhadleycentreMpusMH+T)MH+T)Z-;%pdfY
5:

=ames E Iloeppel, @8loal warming could halt ocean circulation with harmful resultsA, (niversity of Illinois *ress
9elease #; ?ecemer -44>$ Semphasis addedT
5>

2teve +onner, @World )earing *oint of )o 9eturn on 8loal WarmingA, :ndependent #'5 2eptemer -44>$% ?avid
<dam, @Deltdown fear as <rctic ice cover falls to record winter lowA, (uardian #'> Day -44;$ +orroorated y other
studies, such as Dari,a D% Holland, +ecilia D% /itz, /runo Temlay, @6uture arupt reductions in the summer <rctic
sea iceA, (eophysical Research )etters #Nol% 77, '- ?ecemer -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%agu%orgMpusMcrossrefM-44;M-44;8O4-C4-:%shtmlY
5;

2teve +onnor, @+ollapse of <rctic sea ice Bhas reached tipping pointA, :ndependent #'; Darch -445$%
55

Indymedia, @)<2< climatologist predicts disasterous sea level riseA #'; Darch -445$
XhttpFMMwww%indyay%orgMnewsitemsM-445M47M';M'C7557CC%phpYH Dichael /yrnes, @2cientist says sea level rise could
accelerateA, 9euters #'- Darch -445$ XhttpFMMwww%alertnet%orgMthenewsMnewsdes,M20?-3CC35%htmY
5C

*ress agencies, @<rctic ice Bcould e gone in five years,A &elegraph #'- ?ecemer -445$ Semphasis addedT% <lso
see Oieutenant +ommander =ohn Whelan, Hnderstanding Recent Jariability in the 6rctic "ea :ce Cover ; "ynthesis of
Fodel Results and 3bservations, 2umitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Daster of
2cience in Detereology and *hysical 1ceanography #)aval *ostgraduate 2chool, 2eptemer -445$
53

2teve +onnor, @Has the <rctic passed the point of no return?A, :ndependent #'; ?ecemer -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%independent%co%u,FC4MenvironmentMclimate"changeMarctic"melt"passes"the"point"of""no"return"
''-C'35%htmlY
C4

9% Iwo,, 8% 6% +unningham, D% Wensnahan, et% al% @Thinning and volume loss of the <rctic 1cean sea ice coverF
-447.-44CA, @ournal of (eophysical Research #=uly -443, Nol% '':$ +4544>, doiF'4%'4-3M-443=+44>7'-
C'

//+ )ews, @8ulf 2treamA, (uide to Climate Change,
XhttpFMMnews%c%co%u,M'MsharedMsplMhiMsciZnatM4:MclimateZchangeMhtmlMgulf%stmY
C-

)+<9 *ress 9elease, @?roughts 8rowing 9eachA #/oulder, +oF )ational +enter for <tmospheric 9esearch, '4
=anuary -44>$ XhttpFMMwww%ucar%eduMnewsMreleasesM-44>MdroughtZresearch%shtmlY
C7

Thomas 6uller, @6or <sia, a vicious cycle of flood and droughtA, :nternational Gerald &ribune #' )ovemer -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%iht%comMarticlesM-44;M''M4'MnewsMwater%phpYH <ssociated *ress, @Warming report to warn of coming
droughtA, #'4 Darch -445$% 9ichard /lac,, @+limate water threat to millionsA, //+ )ews #-4 1ctoer -44;$
XhttpFMMnews%c%co%u,M-MhiMscienceMnatureM;4;C7:C%stmY
C:

<lan ?upont, @The 2trategic Implications of +limate +hangeA, "urvival2 (lobal !olitics and "trategy #Nol% >4, )o%
7, =une -44C$ p% 77
C>

@<ntarctic sea ice increases despite warmingA, New "cientist #'- 2eptemer -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%newscientist%comMarticleMdn':5-:"antarctic"sea"ice"increases"despite"warming%htmlY
C;

Dar, <% =% +urran, Tas ?% van 1mmen, Nin I% Dorgan, et% al, @Ice +ore Evidence for <ntarctic 2ea ?ecline 2ince the
'3>4sA, "cience #': )ovemer -447, Nol% 74-, )o% >;:C$ pp% '-47"'-4;,
XhttpFMMwww%sciencemag%orgMcgiMcontentMfullM74-M>;:CM'-47?
ma&toshow[JHIT2[Jhits[J9E2(OT619D<T[Jfullte&t[antarctic\curranJsearchid['J6I92TI)?E][4Jresourc
etype[HW+ITY
C5

)<2< *ress 9elease, @)<2< Dission ?etects 2ignificant <ntarctic Ice Dass OossA #- Darch -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%nasa%govMhomeMhqnewsM-44;MmarMHLZ4;4C>ZarcticZice%t&tY
CC

<merican 8eophysical (nion and )<2< *ress 9elease, @Warmer air may cause increased <ntarctic sea ice coverA
#-3 =une -44>$ XhttpFMMwww%agu%orgMsciZsocMprrlMprrl4>--%htmlY
C3

?rew T% 2hindell, ?avid 9ind, and *atric, Oonergan, @Increased *olar 2tratospheric 1zone Oosses and ?elayed
Eventual 9ecovery 1wing to Increasing 8reenhouse"gas +oncentrationsA, Nature #3
th
<pril 3 '33C, Nol% 73-$ pp% >C3"
>3-%
34

<lister ?oyle, @Dan"made climate change seen in <ntarctica, <rcticA, 9euters #74 1ctoer -44C$H 2teve +onner,
@+limate change at the *oles I2 man"madeA, :ndependent #7' 1ctoer -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%independent%co%u,MenvironmentMclimate"changeMclimate"change"at"the"poles"is"manmade"3C4->;%htmlY
3'

<le& Iiry, @Earth warned on Btipping pointsA, //+ )ews #-; <ugust -44:$
XhttpFMMnewsvote%c%co%u,MmpappsMpagetoolsMprintMnews%c%co%u,M'MhiMsciMtechM7>35>C:%stmY
3-

=ames Hansen, et% al, @?angerous human"made interference with climateF a +I22 modelE studyA, 6tmospheric
Chemistry and !hysics #5 Day -445$ XhttpFMMwww%atmos"chem"phys%netM5M--C5M-445Macp"5"--C5"-445%pdfY Semphasis
addedT
37

2ergey <% Uimov, Edward <% 8% 2chuur, 6% 2tuart +hapin Ill, @*ermafrost and the 8loal +aron /udgetA, "cience
#Nol% 7'-, )o% >5C4, '; =une -44;$ XhttpFMMwww%sciencemag%orgMcgiMcontentMsummaryM7'-M>5C4M';'-Y
3:

I% D% Walter, 2% <% Uimov, et% al% @Dethane uling from 2ierian thaw la,es as a positive feedac, to climate
warmingA, Nature #::7, 5 2eptemer -44;$ XhttpFMMwww%nature%comMnatureM!ournalMv::7Mn5'45MasMnature4>4:4%htmlY
3>

2teve +onner, @The Dethane Time /omA, :ndependent #-7 2eptemer -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%independent%co%u,MenvironmentMclimate"changeMe&clusive"the"methane"time"om"37C37-%htmlY
3;

)% 2ha,hova, I% 2emiletov, <% 2alyu,, ?% Iosmach, @<nomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East
2ierian shelfF Is there any sign of methane lea,age from shallow shelf hydrates?A, E8( 8eneral <ssemly -44C,
(eophysical Research 6bstracts #-44C, Nol% '4, E8(-44C"<"4'>-;$
35

=ohn <tcheson, @Tic,ing Time /om,A 5altimore "un #'> ?ecemer -44:$
XhttpFMMwww%altimoresun%comMnewsMopinionMopedMal"op%warming'>dec'>,',-3447'%story?coll[al"oped"headlinesY
Semphasis addedT
3C

W% <% Iurz, +% +% ?ymond, 8% 2tinson, et% al% @Dountain pine eetle and forest caron feedac, to climate changeA,
Nature #Nol% :>-, )o% 5'34, -: <pril -44C$ XhttpFMMwww%nature%comMnatureM!ournalMv:>-Mn5'34MfullMnature4;555%htmlY
Semphasis addedT
33

9% Warren, @Impacts of 8loal +limate +hange at ?ifferent <nnual Dean 8loal Temperature IncreasesA, in H% =%
2chellnhuer #ed%$, 6voiding 'angerous Climate Change #+amridgeF +amridge (niversity *ress, -44;$ pp% 37"'7'
'44

8eoffrey Oean and 6red *earce, @<mazon rainforest Bcould ecome a desertA, :ndependent #-7 =uly -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%independent%co%u,MenvironmentMamazon"rainforest"could"ecome"a"desert":4C355%htmlY
'4'

Wenhong Oi, 9ong 6u, et% al% @1served change of the standardized precipitation inde&, its potential cause and
implications to future climate change in the <mazon regionA, !hilosophical &ransactions of the Royal "ociety 5 #Nol%
7;7, -44C$ pp% '5;5"'55-, XhttpFMM!ournals%royalsociety%orgMcontentM4p:>m7-::-7-74-5Mfullte&t%pdfYH *eter 8ood,
=ason <% Oowe et% al%, @<n o!ective tropical <tlantic sea surface temperature gradient inde& for studies of south
<mazon dry"season climate variaility and changeA, !hilosophical &ransactions of the Royal "ociety 5 #Nol% 7;7, -44C$
pp% '5;'"'5;;, XhttpFMM!ournals%royalsociety%orgMcontentMa'54,'-r,>7:44'7Mfullte&t%pdfY
'4-

?aniel +% )epstad, +laudia D% 2tic,ler,et% al% @Interactions among <mazon land use, forests and climateF prospects
for a near"term forest tipping pointA !hilosophical &ransactions of the Royal "ociety 5 #Nol% 7;7, -44C$ pp% '575"'5:;%
'47

8uy =% ?% Iir,, *at H% /ellamy, *eter =% /radley, et% al, @+aron losses from all soils across England and Wales
'35C"-447A, Nature #Nol% :75, )o%, 54>;, C 2eptemer -44>$ pp% -:>"-:C,
XhttpFMMwww%nature%comMnatureM!ournalMv:75Mn54>;MasMnature4:47C%htmlY
'4:

+hris ?% =ones, *eter D% +o&, 9ichard Essery, et% al, @2trong caron cycle feedac,s in a climate model with
interactive +1- and sulphate aerosolsA, (eophysical Research )etters #Nol% 74, )o% 3, Day -447$ p% ':53
XhttpFMMwww%agu%orgMpusMcrossrefM-447M-4478O4';C;5%shtmlY%
'4>

Isaac D% Held and /rian =% 2oden, @Water Napor 6eedac, and 8loal WarmingA, 6nnual Review of 0nergy and
the 0nvironment #)ovemer -444, Nol% ->$ pp% ::'":5>
'4;

<* 2o,olov, et% al, @*roailistic 6orecast for Twenty"6irst +entury +limate /ased on (ncertainties in Emissions
#Without *olicy$ and +limate *arametersA @ournal of Climate #1ctoer -443, Nol% --, )o% '3$ pp% >'5>">-4:
'45

Nic,y *ope et% al #eds%$ 6voiding 'angerous Climate Change #OondonF Det 1ffice Hadley +enter, -44C$ p% '7%
<lso see Nic,y *ope, @Det office warns of Bcatastrophic rise in temperatureA &imes #'3 ?ecemer -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%timesonline%co%u,MtolMnewsMenvironmentMarticle>75';C-%eceY
'4C

?avid <dam, @Det 1ffice warns of catastrophic gloal warming in our lifetimesA, (uardian #-C 2eptemer -443$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MenvironmentM-443MsepM-CMmet"office"study"gloal"warmingY
'43

Dargaret Torn and =ohn Harte, @Dissing feedac,s, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future
warmingA, (eophysical Research )etters #Nol%, 77, Day -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%agu%orgMpusMcrossrefM-44;M-44>8O4->>:4%shtmlYH @6eedac, Ooops In 8loal +limate +hange *oint To
< Nery Hot -'st +enturyA "cience 'aily #-- Day -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%sciencedaily%comMreleasesM-44;M4>M4;4>--'>'-:C%htmY
''4

(nion of +oncerned 2cientists, @Warning to HumanityA #+amridge, D<F '33-$ Semphasis addedT
'''

(nited )ations Environmental *rogramme #()E*$ *ress 9elease, @1ur present course is unsustainale .
postponing action is no longer an optionA #)airoiF '> 2eptemer '333$ Semphasis addedT
''-

+/2 )ews, @Two"thirds of Earths ecosystems at ris,F ()A #7' Darch -44>$
XhttpFMMwww%cc%caMstoryMworldMnationalM-44>M47M74M()Environment4774%htmlY
''7

9eport of the (nited )ations Dillennium Ecosystem <ssessment, 0cosystems and Guman =ell%5eing2 "ynthesis
#Washington ?+F Island *ress, 74 Darch -44>$ XhttpFMMwww%mawe%orgMpro&yMdocument%asp&?
source[dataaseJTale)ame[?ocumentsJId6ield[?ocumentI?JId[7>;J+ontent6ield[?ocumentJ+ontentType6ie
ld[+ontentTypeJTitle6ield[TitleJ6ile)ame[D<\8eneral\2ynthesis\"\6inal\?raft%pdfJOog[TrueY
'':

?avid Edwards, 4ree &o 5e Guman #?evonF 8reen /oo,s, '33>$ p% '::%
''>

+ited in =ohn 9owley, @6orecasting the 6utureA, !eople E the !lanet, #Nol% CM:, '333$
'';

Diha!ilo ?% Desarovic and Eduard *estel, Fan$ind at the &urning !oint, #)ew 0or,F E% *% ?utton, '35:$
''5

8wyn *rins, @Time to ditch IyotoF the sequelA #+oloradoF (niversity of +olorado +enter for 2cience and
Technology *olicy, 1ctoer -44C$ XhttpFMMsciencepolicy%colorado%eduMprometheusMwp"contentMuploadsM-44CM''Mtime"to"
ditch",yotoZtheZsequelfinalaspul->'44C%pdfY
''C

*atric, Dc+ully, @?iscredited 2trategyA, (uardian #-' Day -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MenvironmentM-44CMmayM-'Menvironment%carontradingY
''3

*atric, Wintour, @/lair signs caron pact with 2chwarzeneggerA, (uardian #' <ugust -44;$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MclimatechangeMstoryM4,,'C7:;;-,44%htmlY
'-4

9oy Wil,es, @Is B+ontraction and B+onvergence the <nswer to +limate +hangeA, Climate and Capitalism #7'
Darch -445$ XhttpFMMclimateandcapitalism%comM?p[>:Y
'-'

//+ )ews, @+openhagen dealF Iey pointsA #'3 ?ecemer -443$
XhttpFMMnews%c%co%u,M'MhiMsciMtechMC:--745%stmY
'--

HD 8overnment, &he HK )ow Carbon &ransition !lan2 National strategy for climate and energy #OondonF
?epartment of Energy J +limate +hange, '> =uly -443$ XhttpFMMwww%decc%gov%u,MDediaMviewfile%ash&?
6ile*ath[White *apers^(I Oow +aron Transition *lan
W*43^'Z-44345-:'>7-7CZeZ__Zlowcarontransitionplan%pdfJfiletype[:Y
'-7

+hristian <id, @8overnment Beviscerates climate illA #'4 =une -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%alertnet%orgMthenewsMfromthefieldM-'C-5>M'-'743'>5:;5%htmY
'-:

=ames Ianter, @+aron tradingF where greed is greenA, New Bor$ &imes #-4 =une -445$
XhttpFMMwww%nytimes%comM-445M4;M-4MusinessMworldusinessM-4iht"money%:%;-7:544%htmlY
'->

Terry Dacalister, @+aron trading could e worth twice that of oil in ne&t decadeA, (uardian #-3 )ovemer -443$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MenvironmentM-443MnovM-3Mcaron"trading"mar,et"copenhagen"summitY
'-;

<urey Deyer, @The +ase for +ontraction and +onvergenceA, in ?avid +romwell and Dar, Oevene #eds%$
"urviving Climate Change2 &he "truggle to 6vert (lobal Catastrophe #OondonF *luto *ress, -445$ pp% -3">C
'-5

?/ +limate +hange <dvisors, (lobal Climate Change !olicy &rac$er2 6n :nvestor?s 6ssessment SE&ecutive
2ummaryT #?eutsche /an, 8roup, 1ctoer -443$
XhttpFMMwww%dcca%comMdccaME)MZmediaM8loalZ+limateZ+hangeZ*olicyZTrac,erZE&ecZ2ummary%pdfY% 2ee
summary at @+aron mar,ets not wor,ing, says ?eutsche /an,A, 0cologist #- )ovemer -443$
XhttpFMMwww%theecologist%orgM)ewsMnewsZroundZupM7:C5>:McaronZmar,etsZnotZwor,ingZsaysZdeutscheZan,%htmlY
'-C

2ir )icolas 2tern, &he 0conomics of Climate Change2 &he "tern Review #+amridgeF +amridge (niversity *ress,
-44;$ XhttpFMMwww%hm"treasury%gov%u,MindependentZreviewsMsternZreviewZeconomicsZclimateZchangeM
sternreviewZinde&%cfmY% =uliette =owit and *atric, Wintour, @+ost of tac,ling gloal climate change has douled, warns
2ternA, (uardian #-; =une -44C$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MenvironmentM-44CM!unM-;Mclimatechange%scienceofclimatechangeY
'-3

=ames 9anderson, @+limate changeF *repare for gloal temperature rise of :+, warns top scientistA, (uardian #5
<ugust -44C$ XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,MenvironmentM-44CMaugM4;Mclimatechange%scienceofclimatechangeY
'74

Dar, Oynas, @2i& steps to hellA, (uardian #-7 <pril -445$
XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%u,Moo,sM-445MaprM-7Mscienceandnature%climatechangeY
'7'

?avid <dam, @Too late? Why scientists say we should e&pect the worstA, (uardian #3 ?ecemer -44C$
'7-

2ee for instance 2tatement for the 9ecord of Thomas 6ingar, ?eputy ?irector of )ational Intelligence for <nalysis
and +hairman of )ational Intelligence +ouncil, National :ntelligence 6ssessment on the National "ecurity :mplications
of (lobal Climate Change to ,0<0 #Washington ?+F House *ermanent 2elect +ommittee on Intelligence and House
2elect +ommittee on Energy Independence and 8loal Warming, -> =une -44C$% <lso see )oah 2hachtman, @)ations
2piesF +limate +hange +ould 2par, WarA, =ired #-7 =une -44C$
XhttpFMMlog%wired%comMdefenseM-44CM4;Menvironmental"g%htmlY
'77

8eorge Doniot, Geat2 Gow to "top the !lanet 5urning #OondonF <llen Oane, -44;$
'7:

+live Hamilton, @/uilding on IyotoA, New )eft Review #Day"=une -445, Nol% :>$