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tasa inflacin
tasa impto.
inversin
3%
30%
activos fijos
capital de trabajo ao 0
capital de trabajo ao 1-ao 5
ao 0
ao 1
4,200,000.0
200,000.0
5% ventas incrementales
estructura
financiamiento
aporte
deuda
50%
50%
crecimiento moderado
ao 1
tasa crecim. unidades
nuevas
participacin mdo.
ventas proxy
10%
unidades existentes
45%
250
12,500
ao 0
ao 1
113
1,125
ao 0
ao 1
7,000.0
3,500.0
5,000.0
2,200.0
300,000.0
demanda nuevo
demanda actualizacin
precios y costos
precio venta nuevo
precio venta actualizacin
costos variable nuevo
costos variable actualizacin
costos fijos
depreciacin
aos
tasa
tabla
valor liquidacin
7.0
14.29%
valor en libros
depreciacin
1,200,000.0
ao 0
ao 1
4,200,000.0 3,600,000.0
600,000.0
servicio deuda
ao 0
tasa de inters
saldo
principal
intereses
cuota
ao 1
8%
2,200,000.0 1,711,774.2
488,225.8
176,000.0
664,225.8
tasas de descuento
COK
WACC
10.73%
8.16%
RIABLES DE ENTRADA
ao 2
ao 3
ao 4
ao 5
ao 3
ao 4
ao 5
ventas incrementales
ao 2
275
303
333
ao 3
136
1,125
ao 4
150
1,125
ao 5
124
1,125
ao 2
7,210.0
3,605.0
5,150.0
2,266.0
309,000.0
ao 3
7,426.3
3,713.2
5,304.5
2,334.0
318,270.0
ao 4
7,649.1
3,824.5
5,463.6
2,404.0
327,818.1
ao 5
7,878.6
3,939.3
5,627.5
2,476.1
337,652.6
ao 2
ao 3
ao 4
3,000,000.0 2,400,000.0 1,800,000.0
600,000.0
600,000.0
600,000.0
ao 5
1,200,000.0
600,000.0
ao 2
ao 2
1,184,490.4
527,283.8
136,941.9
664,225.8
ao 3
ao 4
615,023.9
569,466.5
94,759.2
664,225.8
0.0
615,023.9
49,201.9
664,225.8
366
165
1,125
ao 0
ao 0
ao 1
787,500.0
3,937,500.0
-562,500.0
-2,475,000.0
-300,000.0
-600,000.0
-236,250.0
551,250.0
ao 1
4,725,000.0
-3,037,500.0
-300,000.0
-236,250.0
-4,400,000.0
-11,143.1
-4,200,000.0
-200,000.0
-11,143.1
-4,400,000.0 1,140,106.9
-664,225.8
52,800.0
2,200,000.0
2,200,000.0 -611,425.8
-2,200,000.0
528,681.1
ao 0
ao 1
551,250.0
600,000.0
-4,400,000.0
-11,143.1
-4,200,000.0
-200,000.0
-11,143.1
-4,400,000.0 1,140,106.9
ao 2
ao 3
ao 4
892,237.5 1,010,905.1 1,145,355.5
4,055,625.0 4,177,293.8 4,302,612.6
-637,312.5 -722,075.1 -818,111.0
-2,549,250.0 -2,625,727.5 -2,704,499.3
-309,000.0 -318,270.0 -327,818.1
-600,000.0 -600,000.0 -600,000.0
-255,690.0 -276,637.9 -299,261.9
596,610.0
645,488.4
698,277.7
ao 2
ao 3
ao 4
4,947,862.5 5,188,198.8 5,447,968.0
ao 5
1,297,687.7
4,431,690.9
0.0
-926,919.8
-2,785,634.3
-337,652.6
-600,000.0
-323,751.6
755,420.3
ao 5
5,729,378.7
1,450,218.9
1,200,000.0
250,218.9
-3,712,554.1
-337,652.6
-323,751.6
2,805,639.3
-623,143.2
561,450.0
-635,798.0
596,701.9
-649,465.2
634,742.0
0.0
2,805,639.3
ao 2
596,610.0
600,000.0
ao 3
645,488.4
600,000.0
ao 4
698,277.7
600,000.0
-12,016.8
-12,988.5
-14,070.5
ao 5
755,420.3
600,000.0
1,200,000.0
250,218.9
0.0
-12,016.8
-12,988.5
-14,070.5
1,184,593.2 1,232,499.9 1,284,207.2
2,805,639.3
data de entrada
riesgo pas
rendimiento bonos tesoro USA
beta industria
prima x riesgo de mercado
D/E (proyecto)
Tax (proyecto)
beta apalancado proyecto
100.00 bp
10/19/2012
0.77%
10/19/2012
0.91 telecom equipment (Damodaran)
5.79% Damodaran
1.00
30.00%
1.55
COK proyecto
COK
WACC
10.73%
7.04%
8.16%
0
FCL
FCFinanciamiento
FCA
VPNFCL@8.16%
VPNFCA@10.73%
VPNA/APV
VPNFCL@7.04%
VPNFCFin@8%
Payback
factor de actualizacin
FCL actualizado
inversin x recuperar
ao 0
ao 1
ao 2
ao 3
-4,400,000.00 1,140,106.88 1,184,593.18 1,232,499.93
2,200,000.00 -611,425.77 -623,143.19 -635,798.00
-2,200,000.00
528,681.11
561,449.99
596,701.93
1,473,863.83
1,282,822.60
1,796,610.24
1,679,083.32
117,526.92
1.00
0.92
0.85
0.79
ao 0
ao 1
ao 2
ao 3
-4,400,000.00 1,054,058.15 1,012,528.47
973,966.29
-4,400,000.00 -3,345,941.85 -2,333,413.38 -1,359,447.09
ao 4
ao 5
1,284,207.16 2,805,639.28
-649,465.20
0.00
634,741.96 2,805,639.28
res convergen
0.73
0.68
ao 4
ao 5
938,233.89 1,895,077.03
-421,213.20 1,473,863.83
se recupera en el ao 5
factor
escalamiento
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
variables de riesgo
ingresos
costos variables
costos fijos
CPPK
tasa de
inflacin
3%
escenario
base
ao 0
crecimiento moderado
aeronaves existentes
45% participacin AP
demanda nuevo
demanda actualizacin
valor en libros
275
113
1,125
124
1,125
ao 1
3,600,000.0
14.29%
600,000.0
ao 2
3,000,000.0
14.29%
600,000.0
ao 0
ao 1
7,000.0
3,500.0
5,000.0
2,200.0
300,000.0
ao 2
7,210.0
3,605.0
5,150.0
2,266.0
309,000.0
ao 0
ao 1
ao 2
12,500
5,625
ao 0
4,200,000.0
depreciacin
valor liquidacin
precio venta nuevo
precio venta actualizacin
costos variable nuevo
costos variable actualizacin
costos fijos
ventas nuevo
ventas actualizacin
ingresos extraordinarios
costos variables nuevo
costos variables actualiz.
costos fijos
depreciacin
30% impto.a la renta
NOPAT
flujo de caja
ventas
valor de recupero
activos fijos
capital de trabajo
costos variables
costos fijos
impuesto a la renta
inversin
ao 2
250
14.29%
estado de pp/gg
ao 1
10%
787,500.0
3,937,500.0
892,237.5
4,055,625.0
-562,500.0
-2,475,000.0
-300,000.0
-600,000.0
-236,250.0
551,250.0
-637,312.5
-2,549,250.0
-309,000.0
-600,000.0
-255,690.0
596,610.0
ao 1
4,725,000.0
ao 2
4,947,862.5
-3,037,500.0
-300,000.0
-236,250.0
-4,400,000.0
-11,143.1
-3,186,562.5
-309,000.0
-255,690.0
-12,016.8
ao 0
activos fijos
5% capital de trabajo
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE
CPPK
-4,200,000.0
-200,000.0
-4,400,000.0
-11,143.1
1,140,106.9
-12,016.8
1,184,593.2
8.16%
VPN FCL
1,473,863.8
factor de ajuste
ingresos
costos
variables
costos fijos
1.3
5,786,709.1
-1,310,476.3
1,209,147.6
1.2
4,349,094.0
-382,362.9
1,297,386.3
1.1
2,911,478.9
545,750.5
1,385,625.1
1.0
1,473,863.8
1,473,863.8
1,473,863.8
0.9
36,248.7
2,401,977.2
1,562,102.6
0.8
-1,401,366.4
3,330,090.6
1,650,341.3
0.7
-2,838,981.5
4,258,204.0
1,738,580.1
ao 3
303
ao 4
333
136
1,125
150
1,125
165
1,125
ao 3
2,400,000.0
14.29%
600,000.0
ao 4
1,800,000.0
14.29%
600,000.0
ao 3
7,426.3
3,713.2
5,304.5
2,334.0
318,270.0
ao 4
7,649.1
3,824.5
5,463.6
2,404.0
327,818.1
ao 5
1,200,000.0
14.29%
600,000.0
1,200,000.0
ao 5
7,878.6
3,939.3
5,627.5
2,476.1
337,652.6
ao 3
ao 4
1,010,905.1
4,177,293.8
1,145,355.5
4,302,612.6
-722,075.1
-818,111.0
-2,625,727.5 -2,704,499.3
-318,270.0
-327,818.1
-600,000.0
-600,000.0
-276,637.9
-299,261.9
645,488.4
698,277.7
ao 3
5,188,198.8
ao 4
5,447,968.0
-3,347,802.6 -3,522,610.4
-318,270.0
-327,818.1
-276,637.9
-299,261.9
-12,988.5
-14,070.5
ao 5
366
ao 5
1,297,687.7
4,431,690.9
0.0
-926,919.8
-2,785,634.3
-337,652.6
-600,000.0
-323,751.6
755,420.3
ao 5
5,729,378.7
1,450,218.9
1,200,000.0
250,218.9
-3,712,554.1
-337,652.6
-323,751.6
0.0
-12,988.5
1,232,499.9
CPPK
1,061,832.0
1,194,144.2
1,331,409.1
1,473,863.8
1,621,759.1
1,775,360.1
1,934,947.8
-14,070.5
1,284,207.2
2,805,639.3
prob. ocurrencia
Resumen de escenario
45%
15%
30%
10%
Valores actuales:
ctoalto
recmoderada
recsevera
Celdas cambiantes:
$D$14
10%
15%
6%
3%
$E$14
250.00
350.00
150.00
50.00
Celdas de resultado:
$D$61
1,473,863.83
1,902,076.59
1,120,558.05
816,680.73
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.
VPNE
varianza
1,366,385.70
96,589,832,732.79
desviacin estandar
310,789.05
coeficiente variacin
22.75%
lmite superior
1,366,385.70
1,677,174.75
probabilidad
asociada
68.26%
intervalo 1
lmite inferior
1,055,596.65
intervalo 2
744,807.60
1,366,385.70
1,987,963.80
95.44%
intervalo 3
434,018.55
1,366,385.70
2,298,752.85
99.74%