Goals and Objectives

After assembling a catalogue of past earthquakes and analysing the database

statistically, the recurrence relation for the control region has to be found out. This
will be used to compute the probability of ground motion that can be induced by each
of the faults* that exist around the city. Final results shall be presented in the form of
peak ground acceleration, graphs showing probabilistic analysis, contour diagrams
and 3! modelling of the shape of faults. These results can be directly used by
engineers as basic inputs in earthquakeresistant design of structures in and around
the specific city "ia an interacti"e #raphical $ser %nterface&#$%'.
Sub-Systems
('Preparing a Seismicity Table This subsystem includes three main di"isions of
earthquakes, one on the basis of faults& frequency table', another on the basis of
region&city' and also on the basis of )ichter scale magnitude "alues.
Limitations
-- The data pro"ided may or may not be authentic.
-- *%n a gi"en region, we are taking the top *faults that ha"e the ma+or role in the
past earthquakes that ha"e the maximum frequency. This mapping of only the top
faults will lead to inaccuracy in the forecasting because there maybe faults that ha"e
not been counted and ha"e a ma+or role in a particular earthquake.
Interfaces
,'orecasting - This subsystem aims to analy.e the data prepared by the pre"ious
subsystem and use log normal probability distribution along with "arious recurrence
relations to forecast earthquakes. The final output will include forecasting for
construction of buildings falling in different categories like a nuclear reactor &,/
probability', dams &*/ probability', tall0special buildings&(1/ probability' and
normal buildings &*1/probability'.
Limitations
The gi"en parameters &a and b' in the dataset needs to be cross"erified.
The probabilistic analysis for the forecasting will ha"e some error factor in it
because howe"er complex the recursi"e relations maybe, there will be some error
owing to the fact that it is due to a natural disaster.
Interfaces
3'!" #odelling This subsystem aims at approximating the exact shape of the
faults using the surface latitude and longitude along with the depth of all the 31 gi"en
points on a fault, to a two degree or a three degree mathematical model.
Limitations
-- The accurate rendering of the 3! model is difficult because we ha"e taken only 31
points for rendering a particular fault.
Interfaces