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(p) =
p
0.9
(p
0.9
+ (1 p)
0.9
)
1
0.9
[10]
(ii) By considering the coecients of relative risk aversion, comment on whether the
relative results for the power and negative exponential functions are in line with
your expectations. [3]
Total: [19]
Section total: [28]
END OF PAPER
BUS4087S Test 1, 2013 4
Solutions
Section A
1. Annual cashow = (R C D)(1 t) +D
Terminal cashow = S
M
+W t(S
M
S
A
)
Calculations:
Machine A Machine B Dierence
Initial outlay 1,150,000 1,650,000 500,000
Annual cashow 258,000 354,000 96,000
Terminal cashow 826,000 1,164,000 338,000
NPV(A) = 112,194
NPV(B) = 104,876
(or NPV(A-B) = 7,318)
Therefore choose Machine A .
2. Note that the tree is recombining after the rst period.
Without exibility:
[3 marks for correct values]
q
1
=
e
0.02
0.5
2 0.5
= 0.346801
q
2
=
e
0.02
0.7
1.4 0.7
= 0.45743
Letting V denote the value at each terminal node without exibility, the value V
f
with
exibility is dened as follows:
BUS4087S Test 1, 2013 5
V
f
= max (V, 1.5V 80, 0.5V + 20, 30)
For earlier nodes, we ignore the expansion option (as this is an American call) and
further compare with the option value:
e
0.03
qV
u
f
+ (1 q)V
d
f
Resulting values:
Therefore invest.
[8 marks for formulae, values and conclusion]
3. Residual dividend approach: retain earnings for positive NPV projects, return the
rest to shareholders.
Stable dividend policy: base dividends on sustainable long-run earnings expectations.
+
n
= w
+
(p
n
),
m
= w
(p
m
),
+
i
= w
+
(p
i
. . . p
n
) w
+
(p
i+1
. . . p
n
), 0 i n 1,
i
= w
(p
m
. . . p
i
) w
(p
m
. . . p
i1
), m i < 0.
BUS4087S Test 1, 2013 7
w
+
(p) =
p
0.8
(p
0.8
+ (1 p)
0.8
)
1
0.8
, w
(p) =
p
0.9
(p
0.9
+ (1 p)
0.9
)
1
0.9
V (f) =
n
i=m
i
v(x
i
)
v(w) =
w
0.9
if x 0
1.6(w)
0.9
if x < 0
For our investor:
w
(0.1) =
0.1
0.9
(0.1
0.9
+ 0.9
0.9
)
1
0.9
= 0.121116
w
(0.3) =
0.3
0.9
(0.3
0.9
+ 0.7
0.9
)
1
0.9
= 0.315911
w
+
(0.7) =
0.7
0.8
(0.7
0.8
+ 0.3
0.8
)
1
0.8
= 0.642089
w
+
(0.4) =
0.4
0.8
(0.4
0.8
+ 0.6
0.8
)
1
0.8
= 0.405645
w
+
(0.1) =
0.1
0.8
(0.1
0.8
+ 0.9
0.8
)
1
0.8
= 0.144344
2
= w
(0.1) = 0.121116
1
= w
(0.3) w
1
= w
+
(0.7) w
+
(0.4) = 0.642089 0.405645 = 0.237164
2
= w
+
(0.4) w
+
(0.1) = 0.405645 0.144344 = 0.261301
3
= w
+
(0.1) = 0.144344
v
2
= v(0.3) = 0.541414
v
1
= v(0.1) = 0.201428
v
1
= v(0.1) = 0.125893
v
2
= v(0.2) = 0.438383
v
3
= v(0.3) = 0.631446
CPT value of risky asset:
V (f) =
2
i=2
i
v
i
= 0.130742
CPT value of risk-free asset: v(0.1) = 0.125893
Prospect theory investor prefers risky asset.
(ii) Power coecient of relative risk aversion is = 2.
For the negative exponential:
U
(w) = e
w
(w) =
2
e
w
(w)
u
(w)
= w
(Or note that negative exponential has constant absolute risk aversion with coef-
cient , so hence has relative risk aversion coecient = w).
At current wealth of 2, coecient of RRA = 6. Range of future wealth is [1.7,
2.6] which implies a range of RRA of [5.1, 7.8]. Clearly the negative exponential
investor is considerably more risk-averse than the power investor, and it is therefore
not surprising that she chooses the risk-free asset when the power investor chooses
the risky asset.