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NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
!"#$%&'($ 20-#C)-1 620 606 5*2 5+7 57+ 573 56 550 536
!",%-.'($ 20-.#/-1 3233 3173 3113 30+6 3053 3026 2**3 2*33 2+73
$M!%%( 20-#C)-1 3677 036+ 361* 3602 35*0 3573 3562 3532 3503
1%%$-2.13- 20-#C)-1 11375 111*0 11005 10++5 10+20 10700 10635 1050 1026
(3-.'"- 20-#C)-1 11**0 11+5 11660 11570 11*5 1105 11330 11165 11000
C-!)#$!%%( 20-#C)-1 33 23 125 076 016 3*67 3*07 37*+ 36+*
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
!"#$%&'($ 20-#C)-1 63+ 617 5*6 5+* 575 56+ 55 533 512
!",%-.'($ 20-.#/-1 332+ 3226 31 30* 3052 3002 2*60 2+6+ 2776
$M!%%( 20-#C)-1 3+5+ 376+ 367+ 3632 35++ 352 3*+ 30+ 3311
1%%$-2.13- 20-#C)-1 11725 1135 1115 10*55 10+55 10665 10565 10275 **+5
(3-.'"- 20-#C)-1 13556 12*21 122+6 11++3 11651 112+ 11016 103+1 *76
C-!)#$!%%( 20-#C)-1 +53 5*1 32* 17+ 067 3*16 3+05 353 32+
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CX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
-42M'.'2M 2+--25-1 127.*0 126.30 12.70 123.+5 123.10 122.25 121.50 11*.50 11+.30
C#66%$ 2*--25-1 37 32 27 25 22 20 17 12 07
C$2(% #'4 1*--25-1 5*00 5+23 576 570+ 566* 5631 55*2 5515 53+
5#4( 03-#C)-1 2776 272+1 27+06 26**2 26+*1 267*7 266*6 26501 26306
4%-( 2+--25-1 135.20 133.15 131.15 130.35 12*.15 12+.35 127.15 125.15 123.15
.
.-)2$-4 5-! 26--25-1 2*.10 2.50 23*.60 237.50 23.10 232.50 22*.+0 22.70 21*.+0
.'C7%4 2+--25-1 1176 115* 112 1132 1125 1115 110+ 10*1 107
CX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
-42M'.'2M 2+--25-1 137.05 132.75 12+.70 125.65 12.05 121.35 11*.65 116.35 112.*5
C#66%$ 2*--25-1 6* 5 3* 31 2 16 0* 3*2 37*
C$2(% #'4 1*--25-1 61+0 5**+ 5+16 572 563 5560 552 5270 50++
5#4( 03-#C)-1 2*126 2+36 2776 27322 27056 26632 26366 25676 2*16
4%-( 2+--25-1 1+.15 12.25 136.35 133 130.5 127.10 12.55 11+.65 112.75
.-)2$-4 5-! 26--25-1 2+ 26+ 252 23 236 227 220 20 1++
.'C7%4 2+--25-1 115 1326 1237 11+0 11+ 10*1 1051 *70 ++1
!'4/%$ 5-!%6)-1 5665 2*+ 2*33 2125 156+ 0760 0203 3++3+ 3773
8'.C 2+--25-1 16.70 156.50 1+.+0 13.10 10.20 135.30 132.0 12.70 116.+0
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CX ' WEEKLY NEWS LE++E/S
0-ecio1s etals
5ol9 was a :oo9 ;n9e< pe<fo<me< on &<i9ay wit= t=e <eco<9in: anot=e< sli9e bac>e9 by <isin:
2!( w=ile wea>e< economic 9ata f<om C=ina lately <aise9 wo<<ies o?e< f;<t=e< 9eman9 9<op
fo< wo<l9@s la<:est b;ye<.
5ol9 ComeA (ec slippe9 0.5B to C123* an o;nce w=ile MCD #ctobe< eApi<y fell 0.7B to $s
26*+5E10 5ms
!il?e< saw :oo9 9<op a co;ple wee>s a:o wit= ComeA an9 MCD ma<>etplaces saw a 9<op o?e<
1.5B an9 o?e< 2B <especti?ely. 3i:=e< 9<op <e:ionally was on acco;nt of lowe< spot
<eF;i<ement an9 $;pee a9mi<ation. !l;::is= <eF;i<ement in .ati?e in9ian also lea9 into ;n9e<
pe<fo<mance in #ct a:<eement as associate9 to fa< mont=.
3e<ein we s=o;l9 loo> at si:nificant facto<s w=ic= co;l9 >eep pe<fo<m ne:ati?e on :ol9.
%;<opean t;mble9 to le?els a co;ple wee>s a:o afte< %C, <e9;ce9 inte<est <ate by 0.1B ac<oss
t=e boa<9 as <isin: p<ices an9 :<owt= staye9 a iss;e. Money on t=e ot=e< pa<t =as been b;il9in:
;pG en=ance9 by 9<op in %;<opean an9 also le9 by mostly company 2! economic info<mation.
'nc<easin: 2!( =as la<:e< pa<t to pe<fo<m in <ecent 9<op in :ol9 w=e<ein bot= ;s;ally ;s;ally
mo?e in?e<se. 'n?estment <eF;i<ement in !il?e< =as been 9isplayin: no en=ancement. !6($
!il?e< =a?in: w=ic= 9ecline9 nea<ly 0B in 2013 once a:ain a<e <e co9in: on:oin: 9<op w=ic=
c;<<ent st;9yin: nea< 7*0 M).
'nte<national ?al;e ma<>etplaces on t=e ot=e< pa<t >eep o;ts=ineG ma>in: :ol9 to t<a9e 9own
w=e<eas we a<e not seein: any si:nificant iss;es associate9 wit= :eopolitical pa<t lately. 4ast 7
9aysG we saw mostly bette< info<mation f<om 2! t=o;:= Mont=ly )as>s n;mbe<s f<;st<ate9.
3owe?e< 9espite t=e ba9 st;9yin:G wi9e< ma<>etplaces eApect t=is mi:=t be H;st a one-off e?ent
an9 not a patte<n t=;s we feel st<ess on :ol9 to p<ocee9. !;ppo<te9 by t=ese facto<s o?e< wi9e<
positi?e o;tloo> in t=e 2! economic systemG contin;ally <isin: ?al;e ma<>etplaces an9 also
loo>in: at t=e inc<easin: 2! MoneyG we maintain o;< bea<is= position on t=e p<o9;ct an9 loo>
to sell t=e same on p;llbac>s neAt 7 9ays.
2ASE E+ALS
-ll ,ase Metal t<a9in: 9own an9 on &<i9ay too we saw its eAten9e9 impact. We 9isc;ss
bi<9watc=e< it a9?ancin: fo< a t=i<9 wee>ly fall 9;e to symptoms t=at c=ina@s financial system
is li>ely to wea>en f;<t=e<. We =a?e to be act;ally ca<ef;l nowa9ays abo;t eac= especially
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w=en we =a?e t=e comme<cial man;fact;<in: ?a<iety f<om maHo< cons;me<s of steel on t=e
:lobe. )=e<efo<eG mo?ements is ?e<y m;c= li>ely nowa9ays. !inceG t=e latest patte<n =a?e been
bea<is=G we wis= to maintain t=e same position wit= t=e eAception of a few li>e 9ime.
%conomic 9ata: C=inese s;pplie<s la;nc=e9 its cas= p<o?i9e ?a<iety w=ic= =as 9ecline9 a ta9
especially t=e M1 an9 M2 cas=. )=is in9icates poo< ci<c;lation of <eso;<ces in t=e financial
systemG fo<cin: soon a stim;l;s pac>a:e. 1apan: 'n9;st<ial man;fact;<in:G 5e<many: 5ene<al
p<ice in9eAG %;<o-Ione: 'n9;st<ial man;fact;<in: an9 t=e ca<ee< info<mation. 'n9ia: C6'G li>ely
to slowly 9own a bit an9 t=e ''6 ?a<iety. 2!: <etail salesG t<ansfe< cost catalo: an9 t=e company
stoc>s.
Coppe< a9?ancin: fo< a t=i<9 wee>ly fall an9 eAc=an:e9 nea< a 12-wee> low amon: symptoms
t=at C=ina@s economic system is 9ecline befo<e comme<cial o;tcome info<mation f<om t=e
:<eatest c;stome< of platfo<m mate<ials. C=inese s;pplie<s is p<e9iction to <epo<t comme<cial
man;fact;<in: in -;: inc<ease9 by +.+ BG acco<9in: to t=e a?e<a:e calc;late in a ,loombe<:
'nfo<mation st;9y. )=at wo;l9 be 9own f<om * B in )=is s;mme< an9 t=e secon9 30 9ays of
<e9;cin: 9e?elopment. Cons;me< <isin: p<ices <e9;ce9 to a fo;<-mont= low in -;: an9
facto<y-:ate costs p<olon:e9 t=ei< 9ec<ease to 30 se?e<al wee>sG info<mation la;nc=e9 last ni:=t
s=ow. ,i<9watc=e< fo< 9ist<ib;tion in t=<ee se?e<al wee>s on t=e 4M% was little. &o< nowa9aysG
we >eep a bea<is= pe<specti?e on coppe< an9 s;::est p<omotin: f<om :<eate< sta:es.
We saw anot=e< 9ay of 9ec<ease w=ic= <esol?e9 at C1+370 9own by mo<e t=an C165 f<om its
past close. 5oo9 news is ?e<y m;c= ob?io;s now t=at &ilipino may not <ecommen9 to ban its
o<e eApo<ts an9 t=at was eno;:= to ca<<y 9own t=e 9ime costs intensely by mo<e t=an 7 B in
H;st two wo<>in: classes. 3owe?e<G if we loo> at t=e p<ice sit;ation an9 t=e ol9 tale of p<o?i9e
=a<9ness possibly t=e steel may soon <eco?e<y :<eate<. )=e<efo<eG fo< nowa9ays we a<e not
in9icatin: fo< a clean p<omotin: w=ile p;<c=asin: f<om Jabno<malJ amo;nts is <ecommen9e9.
.ews: W=ile 9ime le9 falls in base metals yeste<9ay as iss;e o?e< &ilipino o<e t<a9e ban
<ece9e9G t=e ma<>et still s=iftin: into impo<tant lac> in nea< p=<aseG -.8 says in e-maile9
<e?iew. )=e concent<ate on t=e Malaysia seems little s=o<t-si:=te9G wit= t=e ma<>et
eApe<iencin: m;c= la<:e< iss;es a<o;n9 'n9onesian t<a9e ban.
ENE/3Y
C<;9e oil p<ice in t=e 2! inno?ati?e f<om mont= lows on &<i9ay G :ettin: o?e< a B as pe< t=e
en9in: <ate t=o;:= ,<ent oil on:oin: to stay ;n9e< st<ess fo< most aspect of t=e pe<io9.W)' #ct
a:<eement at ."M%D sli9 to C*0.0 pe< ba<<el ma<> =owe?e< =an9le9 powe<f;l <esto<ation
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f<om t=e<e to close =i:=e< by 1.3B to C*2.+0 pe< :;n ba<<el.W=ile t=e<e we<e no si:nificant
=ints <e:a<9in: oilG MCD $aw too followe9 fit w=ile was an ;n9e< pe<fo<me< last ni:=t a99in:
H;st 0.+B to $s 5633 pe< :;n ba<<el.
-s pe< t=e newest imp<o?ementsG #<iental ?al;e ma<>etplaces a<e t<a9in: sl;::is= p;blis= t=e
combine9 to sl;::is= C=inese s;pplie<s loanin: info<mation w=ic= s;<:e9 mo<e t=an +0B on a
MoM e?al;ation =owe?e< still stoo9 ma<:inally <e9;ce9 t=an obHecti?es. -l<ea9y we =a?e seen
C=inese 66' an9 C6' ?a<iety last ni:=t w=e<ein bot= fi:;<es 9isappointe9 =ea?ily an9 also one
of t=e facto<s be=in9 st<ess on in9;st<ial p<o9;cts lately s;c= as oil.
4oo>in: at t=e oil costsG last ni:=t we saw 2! oil mo?in: sma<tly f<om le?els w=ic= was wit=
bette< amo;nts w=ic= inc<ease by nea< 27B at ."M%D =owe?e< #' fi:;<es a<e ;na?ailable to
;s <i:=t now. W=ile we eAamine t=e same fi:;<es fo< MCD c<;9eG9ata in9icates /ol imp<o?e9
by 13B t=o;:= #' 9<oppe9 by a i9entical <ate an9 t=;s ill;st<atin: towa<9s a p<obably s=o<t-
co?e<in: p;blis= t=e =;:e fall in costs in last few times. Wit= ,<ent oil on:oin: to t<a9e on a
sl;::is= obse<?eG financial info<mation f<om C=inese s;pplie<s an9 %2 <emainin: s;b9;e9G we
t=in> wi9e st<ess on oil costs wo;l9 p<ocee9.
NCDEX ' WEEKLY NEWS LE++E/S
C4ANA
C=ana #ct f;t;<es t<a9in: on a .e:ati?e note on &<i9ay on en=ance9 in <ain con9itionsG <elaAe9
p<o?i9es in t=e act;al ma<>etplaces an9 en=ance9 >=a<if imp;lses an9 settle9 0.2B lowe<.
3owe?e<G lowe< 9eman9 an9 Hoyf;l p;<c=asin: c;s=ionin: t=e 9ownsi9e.
6<ices =a?e 9<oppe9 o?e< t=e last few se?e<al wee>s on :<a9;al <eF;i<ement in t=e act;al
ma<>etplaces alon: wit= =isto<y c=ana o;tcome in 2013-1.
-cco<9in: to t=e !ec<eta<y of state fo< &a<min:G plantin: of >=a<if imp;lses as on t= !ept
appea<s at *.72 mn =a as a:ainst 10.37 mn =a last season. !owin: of );<G 2<a9 an9 Moon: as
on )wenty-fi<st -;: appea<s at 3.+ mn =aG 2.2 mn =a an9 2.03 mn =a <especti?ely.
CC%- imp<o?e9 t=e M!6 of t;< an9 ;<a9 by $s.50 to $s.G350 eac=G w=ile t=e M!6 of moon:
was imp<o?e9 by $s.100 to $s.G600EFtl.
)=e t= %n=ance $epo<ts place9 complete imp;lses o;tcome fo< 2013-1 at 1*.27 mn tnG ;p
f<om 1+.3 mn tn p<e?io;sly. )=e<e was a wait in t=e :<owin: of t=e c=ana plants alon: wit=
some plants =a<m in Ma9=ya 6<a9es=G $aHast=anG Ma=a<as=t<a an9 -n9=<a 6<a9es=.
-s pe< t=e !ec<eta<y of state fo< &a<min:G place ;n9e< $abi 6;lses 2013-1 was stan9in: at
161.* la>= =a as a:ainst 152.65 la>= =a last season. C=ana plantin: was stan9in: at 10.21 mn
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=a in compa<ison to *.51 mn =a 9;<in: t=e same inte<?al last season.
6<o?i9es of C=ana since past one season =as been a9eF;ate as t=e co;nt<y :aine9 fen9e< C=ana
o;tcome in 2012-13 season. &o< 2013-1 tooG t=e :o?t in t=ei< t= a9?ance <epo<ts =as
estimate9 <eco<9 o;tcome of at *.++ mn loa9s in t=e $abi season.
C=ana wo;l9 =owe?e<G contin;e to maintain t=e ta: of bi::est c<eate9 beat plants in .ati?e
in9ian =a?in: a lion@s 9isc;ss of +-50 pe<cent in total .ati?e in9ian 'mp;lses man;fact;<in:.
-cco<9in: to .ati?e in9ian 'mp;lses an9 5<ain #<:aniIationG -p<-(ec@13 was stan9in: at
t<ansfe< 2. mn tn ?s 2.+ mn tn last season. 'n ?al;e te<msG .ati?e in9ian b<o;:=t in C2.3 billion
9olla<s of p;lses in 2012-13G almost 2+B :<eate< o?e< C1.+5 billion 9olla<s in t=e p<e?io;s
season. 3owe?e<G impo<ts in 2013-1 season may 9ec<ease 11B to 3.2 mn tn on obHecti?es of
:<eate< o;tcome.
-cco<9in: to -6%(-G 'mp;lses eApo<ts K>ab;li c=anaL between -p<-&eb @1 inc<ease9 22+B
to 517G0*5 tn as a:ainst 157G7** tn between -p<-&eb @13.
S5YA2EAN 6 /E,I. S5YA
!oybean f;t;<es t<a9in: <et<ie?e9 f<om Jlowe< le?els on &<i9ay on s=o<t co?e<s. -lso in?esto<s
sF;a<e9 off t=ei< <oles a=ea9 of t=e 2!(- pe< mont= <e?iew an9 <esol?e9 1.3B :<eate<. Costs
=a?e 9<oppe9 o?e< t=e last few se?e<al wee>s on bette< t=an p<e9icte9 :<owin:G eAcellent 9own
po;<s in t=e soy bean st<apsG ina9eF;ate soy foo9 eApo<ts an9 ina9eF;ate wo<l9wi9e
ma<>etplaces.
-cco<9in: to !ec<eta<y of state fo< &a<min: soy bean :<owin: as on t= !ept is <e?eale9 at
10.*6 mn =a compa<e9 to 12.17 mn =a last season. )=e<e =a?e been iss;es o?e< below no<mal
monsoon t=is seasonG appea<ance of %l-.ino an9 lac> of plant see9s fo< >=a<if 201 :<owin:.
CC%- =as >ept t=e M!6 of soy bean t=e same at $s. 2500-2560EFtl.
)=e !ec<eta<y of state fo< &a<min: in its t= -9?ance $epo<tsG estimate9 2013-1 soy bean
o;tcome at 11.** mn tn as a:ainst 1.67 mn tn in 2012-13. !oy foo9 eApo<ts in -;: @1 =a?e
9<oppe9 *+.*B to 2G77+ tn f<om 1+3G555 tn in -;: @13 on ina9eF;ate 9eman9 an9 <e9;ce9
accessibility fo< smas=in: 9;e to :<eate< .ati?e in9ian F;otations fo< fo<ei:n c;stome<s.
C,#) !oybean .o? f;t;<es t<a9in: eAc=an:e9 on a ne:ati?e note on &<i9ay as 2!(-
p<e9iction :<eate< t=an p<e9icte9 o;tcome an9 <esol?e9 1.23B <e9;ce9. Costs =a?e 9<oppe9
o?e< t=e last few se?e<al wee>s on eAcellent plants ci<c;mstancesG obHecti?es of :<eate< <es;lts
in an9 a fen9e< o;tcome.
)=e 2!(- pe< mont= plants <e?iew in !ept p<e9iction 201-15 o;tcome 3.*13 bn bs= a:ainst
3.2+* bn bs= last season w=ile en9 s=a<es a<e p<e9iction at 75 mn bs= a:ainst 30 mn bs=
p<e9iction in )=is s;mme<. 2013-1 en9 s=a<es a<e p<e9iction at 10 mn bs=. )=e <e?iew
p<e9iction !o;t= ame<ica o;tcome at * mn tn a:ainst of +7.5 mn tn an9 -<:entina o;tcome at
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55 mn tn a:ainst 5 mn tn last season.
7EE/A
1ee<a #ct f;t;<es t<a9in: eAc=an:e9 on a ne:ati?e on We9 on :<a9;al <eF;i<ement an9 =;:e
ca<<yo?e< s=a<es an9 ma9e a new a:<eement low of $s. 10+00 . 3owe?e<G <e9;ce9 sta:e
<eF;i<ement c;s=ionin: 9istinct 9isa9?anta:e an9 <esol?e9 0.37B <e9;ce9. -<ea ;n9e< Hee<a in
5;Ha<at was <e?eale9 at 55G000 =a as a:ainst 335G200 =a last season w=ile abo;t 3*0G000 =a
we<e plante9 in $aHast=an.
5eo-political st<ess in !y<ia an9 6o;lt<y =a?e le9 to a p<o?i9e c<isis in t=e inte<national
ma<>etplaces inc<easin: p<o?i9e iss;es f<om t=e two maHo< 9ispatc=in: nations. )<a9e
p;<c=ases a<e <e9i<ecte9 to 'n9ian. Man;fact;<in: is also p<e9icte9 to fall in !y<ia an9 6o;lt<y
9;e to plants failin:.
-<<i?als in 2nH=a we<e <e?eale9 at 6G000 p;<ses on We9. K!o;<ce: -:<iwatc=L. %Apo<ts of 1ee<a
between -p<-(ec 2013 was stan9in: at *6G500 tnG ;p +*B as a:ainst 50G* tn between -p<-
(ec 2012. K!o;<ce: !pices o< =e<bs ,oa<9L
-cco<9in: to ','! 'n9ia@s 1ee<a eApo<ts =a?e s;<passe9 1G00G000 loa9s ;ntil &eb@1.
Man;fact;<in: of 1ee<a in 2013-1 is p<e9icte9 a<o;n9 5-50 la>= p;<ses K55 >:s eac=LG =i:=e<
t=an 0-5 la>= p;<ses last season.
/ SEED
M;sta<9 see9s #ct f;t;<es t<a9in: eAc=an:e9 on a positi?e obse<?e on &<i9ay on acco;nt of
m;sta<9 foo9 b;siness <eF;i<ement an9 9ec<easin: appea<ance st<ess an9 <esol?e9 0.61B
=i:=e<.
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$esea<c= 'n?estment -9?iso<y 6?t 4t9L. )=e info<mationG analysis an9 estimates containe9
=e<ein a<e base9 on Ways2Capital %F;ityECommo9ities $esea<c= assessment an9 =a?e been
obtaine9 f<om so;<ces belie?e9 to be <eliable. )=is 9oc;ment is meant fo< t=e ;se of t=e
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-ll info<mationG le?els M <ecommen9ations p<o?i9e9 abo?e a<e :i?en on t=e basis of tec=nical
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liability fo< e<<o<s of opinion. 6eople s;<fin: t=<o;:= t=e website =a?e <i:=t to opt t=e p<o9;ct
se<?ices of t=ei< own c=oices.
-ny in?estment in commo9ity ma<>et bea<s <is>G company will not be liable fo< any loss 9one
on t=ese <ecommen9ations. )=ese le?els 9o not necessa<ily in9icate f;t;<e p<ice moment.
Company =ol9s t=e <i:=t to alte< t=e info<mation wit=o;t any f;<t=e< notice. -ny b<owsin:
t=<o;:= website means acceptance of 9isclaime<.
Web: www.ways2capital.com | ail: i!"o#ways2capital.com | Co!tact: $%&&'(&$&'2&&) *+oll ,-ee.