The Benefits and Risks of Ui S II Using Statistics

The Benefits
and Risks of
U i S i i
Chapter 1
Using Statistics
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Thought Question 1: Thought Question 1:
A recent newspaper article concluded p p
that smoking marijuana at least three
timesaweekresulted in lower grades times a week resulted in lower grades
in college.
How do you think the researchers came
to this conclusion? Do you believe it? y
Is there a more reasonable conclusion?
2
Theory: On average, men have lower y g ,
resting pulse rates than women do.
Howcouldyougoabout tryingtoprove How could you go about trying to prove
or disprove that? Would it be sufficient
tomeasurethepulseratesof onemember to measure the pulse rates of one member
of each sex? Two members of each sex?
What information about mens and
womens pulse rates would help you
decide how many people to measure?
3
yp p
Suppose you were to learn that the large Supposeyouwee o ea a ela ge
state university in a particular state
graduatedmorestudentswhoeventually graduated more students who eventually
went on to become millionaires than any of
thesmall liberal arts colleges inthestate the small liberal arts colleges in the state.
Would that be a fair comparison?
H h ld h b b d How should the numbers be presented
in order to make it a fair comparison?
4
In its March 35, 1995 issue, USA Weekend
magazine asked readers to return a survey
with a variety of questions about sex and
violence on television. Of 65,142 readers
who responded, 97% were very or
h t d b t i l TV somewhat concerned about violence on TV
(USA Weekend, 24 J une 1995, p. 5).
Basedonthissurvey, canyouconcludethat Based on this survey, can you conclude that
about 97% of U.S. citizens are concerned
about violence on TV? Why or why not?
5
y y
1.1 Statistics 1.1 Statistics
Statistics isacollectionof Statistics is a collection of
procedures and principles for
gaining and analyzing
informationinorder tohelp information in order to help
people make decisions when
f d ith t i t faced with uncertainty.
6
Statistics in Your Own Life
Which route to go to school,
class, work?
Try each a few times y
Then choose best one.
Sampling routes and comparing them
gainedandanalyzeduseful gained and analyzed useful
information to make a decision.
7
Case Study 1.1: Heart or
H th l ? Hypothalamus?
Hypothalamus plays role in emotion, yet most
people think about the heart. Psychologist Lee
Salk studied role of heart in human relationships.
Observations:
Rhesusmonkeyat zooheldbabyonleft Rhesus monkey at zoo held baby on left,
by the heart, on 40 out of 42 occasions.
Out of 287humanmothers(within4days Out of 287 human mothers (within 4 days
of giving birth), 237 or 83% held babies
onleft regardlessof handedness.
8
on left regardless of handedness.
More Observations:
f h l i i h Out of 438 shoppers leaving store with one
bag, exactly half carried bag on the left.
l i k d h ld i hb ll Dental patients asked to hold a 5-inch ball
while teeth worked on. Substantially more
thanhalf heldit ontheleft (under stress)
Salks conjecture:
than half held it on the left (under stress).
Must be survival value to having a newborn
placed close to sound of mothers heartbeat.
9
Controlled Experiment:
Baby nursery at NY City hospital.
1
st
group of newborns: Continuous sound g p
of human heartbeat over loudspeaker.
2
nd
group of newborns: no sound played. g p p y
Response: weight gain (or loss) after 4 days.
Results: Results:
Infants treated to heartbeat sound gained
moreweight (lost less) andcriedless
10
more weight (lost less) and cried less.
1.2 Detecting Patterns
and Relationships
O i ? Obvious or Not?
Average man taller than average woman.
Taking aspirin helps prevent heart attacks.
More likely to buy blue jeans in certain months y y j
than others.
Men have lower resting pulse rates than women. gp
Listening to Mozart improves spatial reasoning.
11
Statistical Studies
To conduct a statistical study
properly one must
1. Get a representative sample.
properly, one must
2. Get a large enough sample.
3. Decide whether the study should y
be an observational study or
a randomized experiment. p
Example: Assess if men have lower
resting pulse rates than women
12
resting pulse rates than women.
1. Get a representative sample.
Sample = those actually studied
Population =larger groupfromwhich Population = larger group from which
sample was chosen
R h t t t d lt Researchers want to extend results
beyond just the sample.
For pulse rates:
Convenient sample = members of your class. p y
Not valid, e.g., if entire track team in class.
Couldnt extend to other age groups.
13
2. Get a large enough sample.
How large is large enough?
Dependsonhowmuchtheresponsesvary. Depends on how much the responses vary.
More variable within each group
larger sample needed to detect a difference. g p
For pulse rates:
If ll h d t f 65 d ll h d t If all men had rate of 65 and all women had rate
of 75, then just need a few to see the difference.
If mensratevariedfrom50to80andwomens If mens rate varied from 50 to 80 and womens
rates ranged from 52 to 82, then would take
more measurements to see a difference.
14
3. An observational Study
or Randomized Experiment?
Observational Study: merely observe things
b l about our sample.
Randomized Experiment: randomly assign
participants to one of various treatment p p
groups.
For pulse rates: For pulse rates:
Sufficient to measure or observe both pulse
rates and gender of people in sample. es dge de o peope s pe.
To learn if aspirin helps prevent heart attacks,
a randomized experiment would be better.
15
Case Study 1.2: Does Aspirin Prevent
H A k ? Heart Attacks?
Physicians Health Study (1988)
5-year randomized experiment
22,071 male physicians (40 to 84 years old). p y ( y )
Group 1: took ordinary aspirin tablet
every other day. y y
Group 2: took placebo (looked like aspirin
but no active ingredients). g )
Subjects did not know which group they
wereassigned(calledblinding)
16
were assigned (called blinding).
Case Study 1 2: Does Aspirin Prevent Case Study 1.2: Does Aspirin Prevent
Heart Attacks?

Co n d i t i o n Hear t A t t ac k No Hear t A t t ac k A t t ac k s p er 1000
Aspirin 104 10,933 9.42
P lacebo 189 10,845 17.13
Results:
Heart attack rate in aspirin group only 55% of rate

p g p y
in placebo group.
Randomization other factors, such as amount of
i d b i il f b h exercise, expected to be similar for both groups.
Subjects were male physicians. Results may not
extendtoall males nor towomen
17
extend to all males, nor to women.
1.3 Dont Be Deceived By
Improper Use of Statistics
E l 1 Example 1
Business Magazine sent 2000 questionnaires to
readersabout Republicanprimary: Chrysler readers about Republican primary: Chrysler
president Lee Iacocca vs. VP George Bush.
Basedononly first 200 respondents reported Based on only first 200 respondents, reported
Iacocca would beat Bush 54% to 47%.
Sample not representative of population of all Sample not representative of population of all
people likely to vote: those who feel strongly
about an issue most likely to respond.
18
Example 2
U.S. EPA study led to report that New J ersey
ranked 22
nd
in its release of toxic chemicals.
Problem: wrong units ranking was based
on total pounds released. p
Using appropriate rate of pounds released per
square mile, New J ersey ranked 4
th
on the list. q , y
Figures were misleading until adjusted for size.
19
Example 3
Article headline:
Study: Smoking May Lower Kids IQs y g y Q
Headline implication: a causal connection.
Problem: resultsbasedonanobservational Problem: results based on an observational
study (since experiment would be unethical).
M l C k l i Moral: Cant make causal connections
from observational studies.
20
New study confirms too much pot impairs brain
More evidence that chronic marijuana smoking impairs mental
ability: Researchers at the University of Iowa College of Medicine
say a test shows those who smoke seven or more marijuana joints
per week had lower math, verbal and memory scores than non-
marijuana users. Scores were particularly reduced when marijuana
h ld j i t k i th i l f l i d
Example 4
users held a joints smoke in their lungs for longer periods. San
Francisco Examiner, 13 March 1993, p. D-1.
Headline implication: a causal connection.
Problem: basedonanobservational study Problem: based on an observational study
Can conclude there is a relationship but
cannot conclude a causal connection.
21
cannot conclude a causal connection.
Case Study 1.3: A Mistaken Accusation
f Ch i of Cheating
Two students accused of cheating on multiple
choice medical e amd t hi i d i choice medical examdue to whispering during one
part and wrong answers often matched each other.
Licensing board estimated odds of having answers ce s gboadest atedodds o v g swe s
as close as these two were < 1 in 10,000.
At trial, statistician showed agreement in this exam
hi h h i h was no higher than in other exams.
Key: two students were husband and wife, both
fromIndia Licensing board incorrectly assumed from India. Licensing board incorrectly assumed
they were just guessing. Instead, common mistakes
were often the right answers for India background.
22
Whispering had to do with status of sick child.
1.4 Summary and Conclusions
Therearebothadvantagesanddangersof There are both advantages and dangers of
using statistical methods.
Resultsof astudyarenot enough! Results of a study are not enough!
You need to know how data were collected,
whowasasked etc who was asked, etc.
Over the next several chapters, you will
b d t d f t ti ti l become an educated consumer of statistical
information.
23
Tutorial Questions
Q2 in Chapter 1 Q2 in Chapter 1
Peoplewhooftenattendcultural activities People who often attend cultural activities,
such as movies, sports events and concerts,
aremorelikelythantheir lesscultured are more likely than their less cultured
cousins to survive the next eight to nine
h d ti di years, even when education and income are
taken into account, according to a survey by
h U i i f U i S d the University of Umea in Sweden
(American Health, April 1997, p.20).
24
Tutorial Questions
a Canthisclaimbetestedbyconductinga a. Can this claim be tested by conducting a
randomized experiment? Explain.
b. On the basis of the study that was conducted, can y ,
we conclude that attending cultural events causes
people to be likely to live longer? Explain.
c. The article continued No ones sure how Mel
Gibson and Mozart help health, but the activities
may enhance immunity or coping skills.
Comment on the validity of this statement.
25

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