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93 Elsevier Publications, 2013
Manfushri Pathania Gour Sundar Mitra Thakur and Chandra Prakash
Neuro-Fuzzy inference system for rainfall prediction over Northern India
4.2.2 Feed Forward Network with Back Propagation Algorithm:
Back propagation as the name suggests itselI 'propagating the errors in backward direction. It is a common
used method to train the artiIicial neural network. BPA is based upon supervised learning method and goal oI
supervised learning method is to maps the input dataset to get the desired output. In BPA we train the neural
network with the help oI training data set and check Ior desired output. II the actual output obtained Irom network
is deviated Irom the desired output, then the diIIerence between desired output and the actual output is called
error. In this, diIIerence between desired output and the actual output is that is error is propagated Irom the output
node to the inner nodes. Then BPA calculates the Gradient oI the error oI the network. This gradient oI the error
modiIy the weight or we can say update the weight to minimize the error.
BPA has basically two passes:
Forward pass
First step in Iorward pass is to give the input.
Then hidden nodes evaluate the data and give to output nodes.
Output nodes evaluate the data.
Backward pass
Check the diIIerence oI desired output and the target output and this diIIerence is known as error.
Evaluate delta Ior each output node.
With the help oI gradient descent train each output.
For every hidden unit, calculate delta.
For every hidden unit, use the delta to train as gradient descent.
Algorithm is repeated until it meets its stopping criteria: Time constraint, Goal, Epochs and Validation.
5. Results Analysis
In the initial step oI proposed Neuro Fuzzy Model that is Fuzzy inIerence system, Iuzzy inIerence system
takes the real time data oI all the Iour greenhouse and gets the output according to the Iuzzy rules or membership
Iunctions.
Output evaluated Irom Fuzzy InIerence system with the help oI the Fuzzy Rule Base is combined with other
parameters oI atmospheric conditions that are Temperature, Humidity, Dew Point, Wind Speed, Sea Level
Pressure and RainIall Amount and all the data related to these parameters is trained in Neural Network with the
help oI Back Propagation algorithm and Radial Basis Function Network. AIter training all the data with Back
Propagation Neural network and Radial Basis Function network, testing is done on data oI some random years
and comparison is done between results oI both the algorithms. Fig. 5.1. depicts the training perIormance oI the
proposed ANN and Fig 5.2. shows training error histogram oI the ANN when trained with BPA.
Fig. 5.1. ANN Training perIormance using BPA
94 Elsevier Publications, 2013
Fig. 5.2. ANN Error Histogram
Table 3. Comparison oI rainIall amount by RBF and BPA
Table 3 shows the random comparison between actual rainIall and the predicted rainIall using our proposed
ANN with RBF and BPA techniques. Table shows that deviations are in the tolerable range in relevance to the
rainIall amount and this shows the rigidity oI the proposed model.
Sl
No.
Actual Rainfall
Data taken randomly
(in mm)
Rainfall amount by
RBF (in mm)
Rainfall Amount by BPA (in
mm)
1. 0.3 24.7955 79.8306
2. 7.2 8.9369 -1.3953
3. 24 12.0708 3.8766
4. 6.7 7.3625 13.9739
5. 126.5 155.4746 95.8948
6. 100.8 101.6756 137.0011
7. 0 31.2471 66.5393
8. 1.8 11.4426 37.0514
9. 3.2 14.339 2.3704
95 Elsevier Publications, 2013
Manfushri Pathania Gour Sundar Mitra Thakur and Chandra Prakash
Neuro-Fuzzy inference system for rainfall prediction over Northern India
6. Conclusions
An accurate rainIall prediction is crucial Ior Disaster Management and water reservoirs and Ilood prevention.
Many prediction models are applied to predict the rainIall with more accuracy. This study investigates the use oI
Neuro-Fuzzy inIerence system Ior rainIall prediction. For rainIall Prediction, Iuzzy inIerence system and artiIicial
neural network is applied to predict the rainIall amount Ior Amritsar region in Punjab. Also including the data
regarding the greenhouse gases will help in Iinding any changes in pattern oI rainIall as greenhouse gases are
responsible Ior global warming which cause severe weather changes like storms, drought conditions and heavy
rainIall etc. According to the experimental results Radial Basis Function Network is more suitable than Back
Propagation Algorithm. PerIormance oI the proposed model can be Iurther improve by using more high
deIinition data like data collected Irom diIIerent radar and satellites. ReIlectivity images can also help in Iinding
more accuracy in rainIall prediction. Even by adding more data, it will increase the accuracy as it will reduce the
chances oI extrapolating and help in predicting the rainIall amount with greater accuracy. Adding more Iactors
which aIIect the weather conditions can help in enhancing the accuracy in prediction. This model can be used to
predict rainIall over any region around the world.
References
|1| Lee, S., Sungzoon, C., and Patrick M. W. (1998). RainIall prediction using artiIicial neural networks. Journal of Geographic
Information and Decision Analysis , 2(2), 233-242.
|2| Bjarne, K. H. and Denis, R. Weather prediction using case-based reasoning and Iuzzy set theory. PhD dissertation., DalTech, 2000.
|3| Hulme, M., Doherty, R., Ngara, T., New, M. and David Lister. (2001). AIrican climate change: 1900-2100. Climate research. 17( 2),
145-168.
|4| Baboo, S. S., and ShereeI, I. K. (2010). An eIIicient weather Iorecasting system using artiIicial neural network. International journal of
environmental science and development. 1(4), 2010-0264.
|5| Chantasut, N., Charoen, C., and Chularat, T. (2004). Predictive mining oI rainIall predictions using artiIicial neural networks Ior Chao
Phraya River. In AFITA/WCCA Joint congress on it in agriculture, Thailand.
|6| Kumarasiri, A. D., and Sonnadara, D. U. J. (2006).RainIall Iorecasting: an artiIicial neural network approach. Proc Tech Sess, 22 , 1-13.
|7| Remesan, R., Shamim, M.A. Han, D. and Mathew, J. (2008). ANFIS and NNARX based rainIall-runoII modeling. In Systems, Man and
Cybernetics, 2008. SMC 2008. IEEE International Conference on, pp. 1454-1459. IEEE, 2008.
|8| Wint, T. Z., Naing, T. (2008). Empirical Statistical Modeling oI RainIall, World Academy of Science,Engineering and Technology.
|9| Vamsidhar, E., Sankra Rao, P., Satapati, P. (2010). Prediction oI RainIall Using Back propagation Model, International Journal on
Computer Science and Engineering, 2(2),1119-1121.
|10| Geetha, G., and Selvaraj, R. S. (2011). Prediction oI monthly rainIall in Chennai using back propagation neural network
model. International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology. 3(1), 211-213.
|11| Deepashree, R. and Mujumdar, P.P. (2011). A comparison oI three methods Ior downscaling daily precipitation in the Punjab
region. Hydrological Processes. 25(23), 3575-3589.
|12| Olaiya, F., and Adesesan B. A. (2012).Application oI Data Mining Techniques in Weather Prediction and Climate Change Studies.
International Journal of Information Engineering and Electronic Business. 4(1), 51.
|13| Andrew, K., Wei, X., Verma, A. P. Roz, E. (2011), Modeling and Prediction oI RainIall Using Radar reIlectivity data, IEEE
Transactions on Geosciences and remote sensing, June,Vol.02.
|14| Kajornrit, J., Wong, K.W., Chun, F.C. (2012), RainIall Prediction in the Northeast Region oI Thailand, WCCI IEEE World Congress on
Computational Intelligence , June,10-15
96 Elsevier Publications, 2013
Index
A
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), 89
ANFIS. see Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)
ANN. see Artificial neural network (ANN)
Artificial neural network (ANN), 89, 92
error histogram, 95
feed forward network with back propagation algorithm, 94
RBF, 93
training performance using BPA, 94
B
Back propagation algorithm (BPA), 89, 93
ANN training performance, 94
rainfall amount, comparison of, 95
BPA. see Back propagation algorithm (BPA)
E
Empirical statistical modelling
for rainfall prediction, 89
F
Fuzzy Inference System, 91
G
Greenhouse gases, 8889
N
Neural Network Auto Regressive (NNARX), 89
Neuro-fuzzy Model
artificial neural network, 9294
Fuzzy Inference System, 91
greenhouse gases, ranges of, 91
membership function for, 92
real time data of green house gases, 91
surface viewer for, 92
NNARX. see Neural Network Auto Regressive (NNARX)
R
Radial basis function (RBF), 93
rainfall amount, comparison of, 95
Rainfall prediction
data collection, 90
empirical statistical modelling, 89
RBF. see Radial basis function (RBF)
W
Warmer surface temperature, 89
Weather prediction, 88