I

Developing a Decision Support System for Earthquake Emergency

Management


- An Exploratory Study Based on the Wen Chuan Earthquake in China





By: Wei Duan
ID i6004999

Master of Science in Public Policy and Human Development
Academic Year 2009 2010

Supervised by Mr. Henning Florian (PhD Fellow)


Maastricht, J uly. 2010

II


I

Acknowledgements


The contributions of many people have made this thesis possible. I would like to extend my
appreciation especially to the following:
First, I want to thank my supervisor, Mr. Henning Florian. He has given me guidance and
advice throughout the research. It is highly appreciated that he industriously proofreads the
drafts. Especially, as my English is not very good, reading my thesis drafts is a
time-consuming work. Indeed, without his guidance and encouragement, I would not be able
to put the topic together and finish this job so quickly.
I would like to express sincere thanks to all key informants in Pengzhou. Without their help, I
could not study this research topic and finish it on time. Equally important thanks are due to
Mr. Peihu Wang, who helped me get in touch with most of the interviewers and collect the
documents from the government.
It has been a pleasure to study at the Maastricht Graduate School of Governance (MGSoG) of
Maastricht University as a master student. I would like to thank all the teachers and fellow
schoolmates for helping me in academic endeavors and spare time.
There are also many good friends outside MGSoG who have given me their good company
and support for this whole year. Many thanks to my Chinese friends: Yanlin Mou, Lei Chen,
Qixing Yang and Yawei Zhang.
Last but not least, my gratitude goes to my family and boyfriend for their unflagging love and
care throughout my life. Without your support and encouragement, I could not have had this
opportunity to study in Netherlands and finish this one year study successfully.
II


Abstract

The paper aims to introduce an architectural structure of an earthquake emergency decision
support system for the local government in China. Earthqakes, as major public incidents, can
result in serious disasters, which requires immediate and effective government response.
However, decisions about earthquake in cities, especially in some undeveloped ones,
traditionally rely on the experience and ability of the decision-makers, which inevitably
involves too many subjective factors in the process of emergency response. Therefore, it is
crucial to strengthen the study on the general design of earthquake emergency management
decision support systems so as to effectively support decision making and response efficiency
during earthquake emergency management. In this study, we intend to illustrate the goals,
functions, working processes, and structural framework of such a decision support system. In
addition, we also discuss the necessary key databases, and finally, some suggestions on
implementation are given. Based on the digitalization of earthquake related information, the
decision support system provides decision-makers with the power to choose schemes to
manage and direct the actions to be taken more efficiently in the process of immediate and
long term recovery.
III


Lists of Acronyms


AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process
DSS Decision Support System
EDP Electronic Data Processing
EOC Emergency Operation Centers
FEMIS Federal Emergency Management Information System
GIS Geographic Information Systems
GPS Global Position System
KS Knowledge System
LS Language system
LAN Local Area Network
MIS Management Information System
NIMS National Incident Management System
NRP National Response Plan
PPS Problem-Processing System
PS Presentation System
RS Remote Sensing

IV


Table of Contents
Acknowledgements................................................................................................................ I
Abstract.................................................................................................................................II
Lists of Acronyms................................................................................................................III
Chapter 1 Introduction............................................................................................................1
1.1 Background...................................................................................................................1
1.2 Statement of the Problem..............................................................................................3
1.3 Objective of the study...................................................................................................4
1.4 Research questions........................................................................................................4
1.5 The significance of the study.........................................................................................4
1.6 Methodology.................................................................................................................5
1.6.1 Literature review.....................................................................................................5
1.6.2 Case study..............................................................................................................5
1.7 The organization of the paper........................................................................................8
Chapter 2 Theory review......................................................................................................10
2.1 Emergency management .............................................................................................10
2.1.1 Definition.............................................................................................................10
2.1.2 Process of emergency management.......................................................................10
2.1.3 Decision making in emergency management.........................................................12
2.2 Overview of DSS........................................................................................................13
2.2.1 Definition and characteristics................................................................................13
2.2.2 DSS and MIS........................................................................................................15
2.2.3 The generic architecture of DSS............................................................................17
2.2.4 The types of DSS..................................................................................................19
2.2.5 The application of DSS.........................................................................................21
Chapter 3 Issues of earthquake emergency management DSS...............................................22
3.1 Case introduction and current situation analysis..........................................................22
3.1.1 General introduction.............................................................................................22
3.1.2 Current situation of earthquake emergency management with DSS in China.........24
3.1.3 Earthquake emergency management deficiencies..................................................26
3.2 DSS goal and function analysis...................................................................................29
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3.2.1 Decision support needs analysis............................................................................29
3.2.2 DSS goal analysis.................................................................................................31
3.2.3 DSS function analysis...........................................................................................32
Chapter 4 Design of earthquake emergency management DSS..............................................35
4.1 DSS business process and data flow analysis...............................................................35
4.1.1 Early warning analysis..........................................................................................35
4.1.2 Classification........................................................................................................38
4.1.3 Emergency plan management ...............................................................................42
4.1.4 Resource management..........................................................................................46
4.1.5 Decision information obtainment..........................................................................51
4.1.6 Decision making performance evaluation..............................................................52
4.2 General architecture of DSS........................................................................................53
4.2.1 Hardware support layer.........................................................................................56
4.2.2 Basic information layer.........................................................................................57
4.2.3 Problem process layer...........................................................................................58
4.2.4 User interface.......................................................................................................62
4.2.5 The relationship of the core components...............................................................63
4.3 Key data bases design.................................................................................................65
4.3.1 Data base design...................................................................................................65
4.3.2 Model base design................................................................................................67
Chapter 5 Implementation....................................................................................................71
5.1 Potential problem........................................................................................................71
5.1.1 From interviews....................................................................................................71
5.1.2 From literature......................................................................................................72
5.2 Suggestion on implementation.....................................................................................73
5.2.1 Organizational environments................................................................................73
5.2.2 People characteristics............................................................................................76
5.2.3 Technical supports................................................................................................76
Chapter 6 Conclusions..........................................................................................................78
6.1 Summary.....................................................................................................................78
6.2 Limitations of study....................................................................................................79
6.3 Policy Recommendations............................................................................................80
6.4 Further research..........................................................................................................81
VI

Reference.............................................................................................................................82
1

Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
At 2:28 p.m. on May 12, 2008, the 8.0 magnitude
1
Wen Chuan earthquake in China
shocked the world. After the earthquake, governments at all levels took emergency responses
aimed at reducing the losses. However, by J uly 23, the official death toll had reached 69,181
with 374,171 people injured, more than 18,498 persons missing
2
and direct economic losses
of around 845.1 billion Yuan
3
.
It is estimated that there are around 1,300,000 earthquakes each year in the world, among
which about 130,000 can be felt by people, and only about 134 of which will cause societal
losses
4
. In 1976, the 7.8 magnitude Tangshan earthquake brought about 243,000 deaths, and
another earthquake which happened in 1920, in Gansu, China resulted in 234,000 deaths as
well
5
. J apan and other developed countries have adopted some effective countermeasures,
such as Geographic Information Systems
6
(GIS) and life detection instrument etc., reducing
the post-earthquake damage. Thus, for example, the 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Iwate
Prefecture J apan in J une 2008 caused only ten people dead and hundreds injured
7
. Large
earthquakes (above magnitude 6) are listed in the table 1-1 below.
In line with the Comprehensive Emergency Management Framework (Drabek & Hoetmer,
1990), disasters mitigation is an assignment usually with phases like preparation, response
and recuperation; therefore, it is important to pay attention that adequate actions should be
implemented before, during and after the earthquake. However, it is impossible to wholly
reduce the risk of damage. Actually, most developing countries and even many developed
countries are far away from relative safety (Morrow, 1999). Local government is not always
capable of executing actions to relieve the impact of earthquake. In fact, the trend in many

1
All the magnitudes mentioned in this study are based on the Richter Scale.
2
The Central Peoples Government of the Peoples Republic of China (2008). Casualties of the Wenchuan
Earthquake. Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from
http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2008-06/24/content_1026042.htm.
3
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (2008). Direct Economic Loss of the Wenchuan Earthquake.
Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from http://www.cass.net.cn/file/20080905196570.html.
4
Infoplease (2007). Frequency of Earthquakes Worldwide. Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0197837.html.
5
People (2003). The Devastating Earthquakes in the World. Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from
http://www.people.com.cn/GB/guoji/1029/2274478.html.
6
GIS is any system that captures, stores, analyzes, manages, and presents data that are linked to location.
7
Sina (2008). Iwate earthquake. Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from
http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2008-06-15/195814021090s.shtml.

2

countries is to deal with the disaster after it happens (Aleskerov, Iseri Say, Toker, Akin, &
Altay, 2005). Efficient emergency management is, therefore, necessary to be taken into
account in order to develop practices that complement prevention and complete disaster
mitigation policies.

Table 1-1 Statistics of large earthquakes in the worldwide since 20th century
8

Time Place Magnitude Loss of Life
27-2-2010 Concepcion, Chile 8.8 Around 800
12-1-2010 Port-au-Prince, Haiti 7.0
Between 217,000 and 230,000
people
30-9-2009 Samoa 8.0 Triggered the tsunami, at least 113
6-4-2009 Italy 6.3 At least 278 people
14-6-2009 Northeast of Japan 7.2 6
2-9-2009 West J ava, Indonesia 7.3 At least 70 people
12-5-1008 Wenchuan, Sichuan, China 8.0 more than 80,000 people
10-2005 South Asian Subcontinent 7.8 86,000
11-2004
Offshore northwest Sumatra,
Indonesia
8.7
Triggered the tsunami, nearly
300,000 deaths
08-1999 Northwestern Turkey 7.4 20,000
01-1995 Kobe, Japan 7.3 5,400
06-1990 Northwest Iran 7.7 40,000
12-1988 Soviet Armenia Spiro Tucker 7.0 25,000
09-1985 Mexico 8.1 5,000
09-1978 Tabas, Iran 7.4 25,000
07-1976 Tangshan, China 7.8 242,000
02-1976 Guatemala 7.5 26,000
05-1970 Pacific coast of Peru 7.8 66,800
01-1970 Yunnan, China 7.7 10,000
12-1939 Erzincan, Turkey 8 Around 40,000
01-1939 Chile 8 28,000
05-1935 Quetta, India (now Pakistan) 7.5 50,000
12-1932 Gansu, China 7.6 70,000
09-1923 Kanto, J apan 8.3 At least 140,000
12-1920 Gansu, China 8.5 At least 100,000
01-1915 Aweichanuo, Italy 7.5 29,980
12-1908 Messina, Sicily, Italy 7.5 83,000
08-1906 Valparaiso Chile 8.6 20,000
04-1905 Kashmir border, India 8.6 18,800


8
Data collected from National Earthquake Response Support Service (2010). Earthquake Information.
Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from http://www.nerss.cn/list.php?fid=40.

3

Earthquake management and mitigation is not an easy task and usually requires a large
amount of analysis and resources. In order to reduce the damage and optimize the overall
performance of government, the responsible leaders have to make decisions quickly and
effectively. Currently, however, decisions are usually made based on personal judgment of
leaders or experts, rather than basing their decisions in the different stages of relief efforts on
factual evidence. In addition, the information at the first moment just after disaster occurs
tends to be confused, imprecise and incomplete. Besides the lack of accurate information, the
situation is further complicated by the pressing time. At an emergency moment, time is life
and decision makers need to make decision quickly.
Such complexity suggests the introduction of a Decision Support System (DSS) a class of
information systems that support business and organizational decision-making activities. This
system could be used to help analyze the disaster and assist the leaders in making sensible
decisions by means of an inference tool capable of offering an assessment of the
consequences of almost every combination of adverse phenomena, based on the available
information in the limited time.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Presently, the major support the government gains electronically is still largely confined to
information systems which do not give active decision support. Natural disasters always have
the characteristics such as an ad-hoc nature, unpredictability and destructiveness, and how to
make the right decision in a limited time becomes important to the leaders. The DSS would be
a powerful tool for the decision makers, as it can help to save time and enhance the
effectiveness of decisions, which means that the emergency management would be more
efficient and more lives will be saved in an earthquake.
This study is mainly focused on the DSS of local government in China. The reasons for
choosing local government are listed below: Firstly, earthquakes frequently occur in remote
areas, where administrative capability is relatively low, and, applying the DSS can help to
enhance governance capacity during the earthquake. Secondly, in China, most of the local
governments do not even have a DSS for daily management, let alone for the emergency
situation; thus, the need of the DSS is large. Last but not the least, there are 2,862 local
governments in China. If the overall capability of the local government is improved, then the
Chinese governments emergency response ability will be improved more generally.
4

1.3 Objective of the study
The general goal of this research is to formulate an architecture for a computer-based DSS
framework which can be used to aid local governments in their decision making process prior
to taking any action in earthquake emergency management. Due to the limited scope of this
study, it explicitly restricts itself to developing an architecture blueprint for the DSS, rather
than engaging in the details of its construction, such as programming. The specific objectives
are:
To build an architecture of DSS
To identify the information processing mechanisms of each module
To conceive of potential problems that may occur during the implementation of the DSS
and give solutions to avoid them
1.4 Research questions
In order to fulfill the main objective of this thesis, the main research question is:
What is an ideal architecture for a DSS on earthquake emergency management in China,
and how should it be implemented?
Furthermore, some sub-questions are posed as follows:
- What is the general structure of the DSS?
- What is the function of each module in the DSS?
- What is the relationship between each module?
- What is the information data flow of each module?
- What problems might be encountered when implementing the system?
- How can potential problems in implementation be solved?
1.5 The significance of the study
Referring to historical data and table 1-1, we can see that there is a big difference in life and
economic losses between China and other countries. Besides the diversity of earthquakes,
population distribution, urban planning and architectural design, the emergency response after
the earthquake is another main cause of this difference. Compared with J apan and other
developed countries, China's emergency response has shown a certain shortage in terms of
technical expertise and management
9
.

9
National earthquake response support service (2010). Characteristics of emergency management in J apan.
Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from http://www.nerss.cn/bencandy.php?fid=60&id=724

5

A well designed DSS will help decision makers compile useful information from a
combination of raw data, documents, which will help to identify and solve relevant problems
during the earthquake, make scientific evidence-based decisions and quicken the response of
the government.
For public emergency management, this study could provide some theoretical foundations for
earthquake DSS construction, make linkages between earthquake emergency management
and other natural disaster management areas such as hurricanes or snow storms, and provide
practical and active support to decision makers.
1.6 Methodology
1.6.1 Literature review
The study of earthquake emergency management is characterized by its interdisciplinary
nature incorporating elements from emergency management, decision making management,
public policy, and the relevant theory of DSS. In order to gain an appreciation of the
theoretical base of the research and to understand the latest research trends on earthquake
DSS, a great deal of literatures was reviewed (see chapter 2). The general search strategy in
this study is by using emergency management and DSS as the main subject areas for the
literature review, mainly via internet and library sources, referring to the Chinese and
international online information, journals and books. Because of the time limit, once the basic
theories were understood and then could be applied to assist the research on DSS architecture
construction, it is considered that the search for literatures was relatively complete for this
study.
1.6.2 Case study
The research is based on an in-depth case study of Wen Chuan earthquake. The main
reasons why it is believed that a qualitative research strategy (case study) is appropriate for
the research question are: firstly, it is difficult to analyze all the decision making demands of
all local governments in China. In addition, this research is an exploratory study, choosing
one case to build an initial DSS framework for local government can achieve our research
objective.
Reasons for choosing Wen Chuan earthquake were, firstly, the 8.0 magnitude Wen Chuan
earthquake was the most destructive earthquake since the establishment of New China (1949),
its intensity was larger even than the Tangshan earthquake in 1976 (in which 243,000
people were killed); secondly, it is a recent, internationally known disaster in China, which
6

can serve as an example for applying modern technology in the country; in addition, the
author comes from the earthquake area, and has the relevant knowledge of this local context;
finally, the local government has interest to participate in this research, which improves the
data collection process and relevance of research findings. Therefore, relevant first-hand data
can be accessed and the interview to relevant decision makers could also be conducted. The
research data presented here comes primarily from the following:
1.6.2.1 Documents Analysis
At the beginning of the study, various types of documents are collected, such as, Briefings of
Earthquake, Earthquake Relief Bulletins, Donate Material Management and Distribution
Method, Pengzhou Public Emergency Response Plan, Pengzhou Earthquake Emergency Plan,
and some related notice. The main document sources are earthquake relief command
headquarter, secretary office and emergency management office in Pengzhou government
Related data were collected in order to understand the working organization structure of
earthquake emergency team, the emergency working process, the contents of existing
emergency plans and the information system construction status.
On the other hand, searching data from internet is a helpful method for the analysis as well.
Lots of practical emergency data needed in the research came from the national governments
official websites.
To sum up, the relevant documents from inside-and-outside of the government can help to
understand the current earthquake emergency management situation of China. These
document and internet resources shed light on elements of the management process, such as,
the organization structure of emergency management team, the emergency working process,
and the general demand of the decision maker.
1.6.2.2 Semi-structured interview
(1) General introduction of interview
In order to develop the in-depth case study of Wen Chuan earthquake, a qualitative
approach, semi-structured interviews, was taken (Flick, 2009). In the interviews, some
open-ended questions were asked to build an understanding of the current working process of
earthquake emergency management, how the commander makes decisions, what they would
require from the DSS, and some relevant issues on implementation.
In brief, the final purpose of these interviews was to support the further analysis of our
research questions: what is the architecture of DSS for emergency management and how can
this system be implemented.
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(2) The key informants
The key informants selected were the commanders of the Wen Chuan earthquake response
forces in the local government of the city of Pengzhou (refer to chapter 3.1.1). The structure
of the relief command headquarter
10
(Committee, 2008) is showed in Figure 1-1 below.
There are in total eleven sub-groups and thirty two leaders in Pengzhou relief command
headquarter. We chose the three top leaders of the relief command headquarter and the leaders
of the eleven sub-groups to be our key informants. Each leader is taken to represent a
sub-group. For example, the leader from relief supply group can offer information on material
allocation decision making.

Figure 1-1 Structure of the relief command headquarter of Pengzhou

(3) Preparedness of interview
In order to prevent unintended mistakes occurring during the interview with key informants,
the following preparatory steps were taken. Firstly, contact with the key interviewees by email
or telephone was made to discuss with them the purpose and relevant issues about the
interview (refer to Annex 1) and to make a proper appointment with them. Secondly, be
familiar with the question guide (see Annex 2) and the C.V. of each informant before the
interview. Third, a tape recorder was prepared to record the interviews in order to get a better
analysis afterward. Fourth, the correct location and time (e.g. single quite room, consider the
time lag between Netherlands and China) to do the interview was chosen to avoid disturbance
and inconvenient. Finally, to make the interview more effective I attempted as much as

10
All the names of relief command headquarter are translated by author
8

possible to focus the discussion specifically on the emergency management during the
earthquake in 2008.
When conducting the interview, to start, I introduced myself and explained again the purpose
of interview. Then, I asked for the permission of recording the interview, and whether the
interviewee had any further question before starting the interview. During the interviewing
process, I ensured that all the questions were well organized and asked in logic way going
through the interview questions topic by topic, and according to the response of the informant,
adjusting our interview questions. After finishing the interview, I expressed our appreciation
for cooperating with this study.
(4) Results of interview
Due to the constraints of time and distance, all of the interviews were conducted via
telephone. As planned, fourteen commanders were all interviewed: three top leaders of the
relief command headquarters, seven sub-group leaders and four vice leaders of the sub-group
(see Annex 3). All of the respondents had had experiences with decision-making during the
earthquake emergency management.
The interviews were semi-structured and lasted between 30 and 80 minutes, with an average
of 50 minutes per person. The main topics of the interview encompass questions about
Command and control tasks, Information Sources, Demand and Implementation. The
full description of the interview is provided in Annex 2. A transcript of each interview was
made and utilized for the analysis in the following chapters.
1.7 The organization of the paper
In order to demonstrate the research process on DSS, my thesis includes the following
sections:
Chapter 1 of this paper is a summary of the subject background, research questions, objective,
significance, research methods and the general structure.
Chapter 2 reviews theoretical literatures written by researchers regarding underlying concepts
of emergency management and the overview of DSS.
Chapter 3 illustrates the issues of earthquake emergency management DSS. First, based on the
analysis of decision making function of Beijing emergency management information system
combined with the interviews, this paper discusses the problems existing in current
earthquake emergency management, and then it clarifies the decision support needs, goals of
the proposed DSS, and concludes six sorts of functions need to be achieved.
9

Chapter 4 discusses the general framework of DSS. This chapter firstly analyzes the general
working process and data process of the six sorts of functions in DSS; secondly, this chapter
establishes a four-layer general framework of the DSS, discusses each layer in depth and the
interaction between different layers; finally, the chapter describes the required databases and
model base of DSS.
Chapter 5 analyzes potential problems and offers implementation suggestions. The
suggestions on implementation consist of three categories, that is, organizational
environments, people characteristics and technical supports.
Chapter 6 provides a conclusion of this study. This chapter firstly summarizes the research
findings; secondly, state out the limitation of this thesis; thirdly, emphasize the concluded
policy recommendations; finally, elaborates a research outlook of this topic.
The figure below shows the general analysis logic of my thesis.

Figure 1-2 Analysis logic of the paper
10

Chapter 2 Theory review
2.1 Emergency management
2.1.1 Definition
In order to study the discipline of Emergency Management (EM), comprehending the
definition is vitally important.
A simple definition of emergency management is to deal with all risk and risk avoidance.
Since risk covers extensive issues, situations and participants, EM is involved in everyones
daily lives and should be integrated into daily decisions and not just called on during times of
disasters (Haddow, Bullock, & Coppola, 2007). The United States Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA) elaborates that emergency management means organized
analysis, planning, decision-making, and assignment of available resources to mitigate,
prepare for, respond to, and recover from the effects of all hazards and its main aims are to
prevent injuries, save lives, and protect property and the environment.
11

2.1.2 Process of emergency management
According to a study carried out by National Governors Association in 1970s, the process of
emergency management can be generalized into a four-phase model: mitigation,
preparedness, response and recovery (Carroll, 2001). The first two phases are considered
proactive actions that are taken prior to an emergency while the final two are both reactive
actions that are taken after it has occurred.
Mitigation is a sustained action to reduce or eliminate risk to people and property from
hazards and their effects. It involves the identification of hazard, evaluation of its frequency
and severity, estimation of direct and indirect economic and social costs, determination of
tolerable risk level, and the identification of risk-reduction opportunities. There are some
widely accepted tools for mitigation to reduce risks: hazard identification and mapping,
design and construction applications, land-use planning, financial incentives, insurance, and
structural controls (Haddow, et al., 2007, pp. 75-77).
Preparedness refers to the actual planning, training, placement of resources, mutual-aid
agreements across jurisdictions, and other coordination efforts before an emergency strikes.

11
Federal Emergency Management Agency (2010), Fundamentals of Emergency Management. Retrieved online
on 1 August, 2010 from http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/IS/is230a.asp

11

As a building block of emergency management, preparedness aspires to create a state of
readiness to respond to a disaster, crisis or any other type of emergency situation. It operates
in a cycle starting from assessment of threats and vulnerability, moving through
implementation of enhancements made through identifying shortfalls, and ending with
exercising and training for the revamped preparedness (Haddow, et al., 2007, pp. 75-77).
Response is the actual activation of emergency plans to meet an emergency. Emergency plan
in our research refers to the feasible action guidance which is used to solve the problems
raised by earthquakes and guarantee the realization of emergency decision making goal to
reduce the deaths and minimize losses on property and environment. After analyzing the
current earthquake emergency plans both in Pengzhou and central government of China, the
main contents included in the emergency plans are: (1) introduction, including: the purpose,
working principles, compilation basis and application scope of the emergency plan; (2)
definite the responsibilities and working process of emergency management participating
groups or departments; (3) early warning and preventive mechanism, including: information
monitoring and reporting, early warning preventive action guide and the early warning level
classification; (4) emergency response, including: information sharing and processing rules,
communication protection, command and coordination among groups, security protection of
victims and emergency workers, impact assessment and resource management; (5)
post-disposition, including: reconstruction, social assistance and evaluation.
More often than not, the emergency plan is conducted with a system of procedures and
protocols. When a disastrous event occurs, the first responders such as firemen, police
officials, medical personnel and troops will arrive at the scene with the coordination and
direction of emergency managers and government officials. Resources will be committed to
the response mission on the basis of emergency management protocols made prior to the
event (Haddow, et al., 2007, pp. 75-77).
Recovery consists of the actions taken by government to restore order and vital systems in the
disaster-impacted zone and to provide assistance by way of temporary housing, food, or
medical attention. It often commences a few hours or days after a disaster and can last for
months or years. Recovery function encompasses a variety of participants such as government
at all levels, individuals and the business community in making decisions about how to
conduct the mission so as to restore normal life and ensure a safer future for the zone
(Haddow, et al., 2007, pp. 75-77).
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2.1.3 Decision making in emergency management
In this part of the literature review, the main objective is to focus on emergency decision
making and to get a general idea of what kinds of information are relevant to design the
theoretical architecture of the DSS including how to design our interview questions, which
factors will affect the decision making and which of them should be considered in our DSS
framework.
Decision making and decision theories are popular research topics in almost every discipline
from business, social sciences, military, engineering etc. However, the literature about
emergency decision making is relatively scarce and is mainly focused on fire emergency.
According to Dai Wang & Yang (1994) emergency decision making is defined as addressing
some unexpected and consequence-serious problems within a very limited time. Compared
with traditional decision making, and building on the definition by Dai Wang & Yang (1994),
emergency decision making is characterized by the following factors:
The environment of decision making is continuously changing according to the
different stage of disaster.
Uncertainty is the main characteristic of emergency decision making: the emergencys
nature, scale, form and when and where it will take place is all unsure.
Decision makers should give quick response, which means they are usually under the
pressure of limited time.
Information shortage. The information needed for decision making may be inexact or
incomplete.
There is less normative standard or rule for decision makers to rely on in emergency
management. The only normative rules available for them are tactical doctrines of emergency
management manuals and guidelines.
Danielsson and Ohlsson (1999) interviewed 90 fire chiefs about their own accounts of factors
affecting the difficulty level of decisions and described types of especially difficult decisions
concerning giving priorities in lifesaving operations and evacuations. This gives us some
general clues about what factors can affect the decision making process and helps to construct
the interview outline of my research.
Sinha (2005) investigated and interviewed 20 firemen to analyze the effect of decision
makers experience on the result of decision. One main conclusion is that experience is one of
the most influential factors affecting emergency decision making. Education and training are
13

the other two important factors. This research is also useful in shaping our ideas about how to
advance the implementation progress of DSS.
Donner (2008) used the POET (Population, Organization, Environment and Technology)
Model in human ecology to discuss the influence that an association to which decision makers
belong, will have upon the individual decision maker during the process of emergency
management. Based on this research, we decide that in our simple initial DSS architecture, the
association factor would not be included at the first step.
In order to adapt to technological development and meet the needs of emergency
management, Hernandez and Serrano (2001) demonstrated an application of advanced
knowledge models to assist emergency management as an adequate response and described a
generic architecture including the knowledge required to deal with emergencies in different
problem scenarios. In addition, simulation models are also integrated as part of the knowledge
architecture. This research gives a general image of what a simple DSS is as well as its
architecture.
2.2 Overview of DSS
Before going into the detail of DSS, the concept of information systems (IS) should be
introduced. According to Laudon & Laudon (1995), DSS is a sub-category of the IS discipline,
and thus, a DSS is actually an information system. Thus, knowledge about what IS is can
help to better understand DSS. According to Silver, Markus, & Beath (1995, p. 356), IS are
the inclusive super systems, whereas people and procedures-the stuff of business
processes-and tools-such as computers and programs-are the subordinated subsystems. This
definition is from the view-point of organization, and the main purpose of the system is to
improve operational efficiency and effectiveness.
DSS and IS share many common characteristics, such as purpose (improve the working
efficiency) and approach (computer-based). The biggest difference between the two systems
is that DSS is an advanced IS, which is more focused on supporting and improving
managerial decision-making. The details of DSS are discussed in the following section.
2.2.1 Definition and characteristics
The concept of DSS was first introduced by Morton (1971) in his book Management
Decision Systems. This text presents DSS as an intelligence human-computer interactive
system, which is based on management science, operation research and behavioral science,
applied through the means of computer technology, simulation and information technology to
14

assist the decision making of unstructured or semi-structured decision problems.
12
Sprague
and Carlson (1982) also hold the same understanding of DSS. They, too, emphasize that DSS
is helping decision makers to solve semi-structured or unstructured problems by taking
advantage of data and models.
In the past decades, many scholars have given their definitions on the concept of DSS; here
three well known ones are listed to provide a general understanding of DSS.
Mittra (1986) suggests that DSS are systems using database and mathematical models to help
users generate information they need and assist decision-making. In addition, from his point
of view, DSS should have the following functions:
In order to make decision, users can try What-If functions (a simulation capability of
DSS to answer what-if questions) and according to the result of what if questions to
test which is a better decision.
DSS is constructed by a database management system, a group of mathematical models
and a human-computer interactive interface.
DSS uses one control module to combine three other modules to answer the decision
question, namely, data access module, data transformation module (to retrieve data,
generate graphs and reports) and modeling module ( to save mathematical models and use
simulation techniques).
Keen (1987) asserts that DSS is the combination of decision, support and system,
which means that through the development of computer technology on system construction
and the gradual expansion of the function of computer support a better decision can be
achieved. The support here emphasizes exploring alternatives proactively or even making
decision on all alternatives.
Burstein & Holsapple (2008) define DSS in terms of the roles it plays in decision processes.
They argue that DSS can provide knowledge and knowledge processing capability that is
instrumental in making decisions or making sense of decision situations. It can enhance the
outcome and efficiency of decision making.

12
A structured problem is when the rules or environment of one problem can be clearly explained by language
(mathematical or logic, quantitative or reasoning). The data, process and evaluation of the problem are all
determined. If problems cannot be described clearly and can only be judged by experience or intuition, this is
called an unstructured problem. In the middle of the continuum are semi-structured decisions.
15

So far, there still is no generally accepted definition of DSS. All the technologies which help
to achieve the goal of decision support can be used to construct DSS. The structure of DSS
may be totally different because of the different times, different application purpose and
different technologies which we use to construct DSS. However, one thing that is common to
all DSS is that: DSS must be able to play the role of decision support. Therefore, grasping the
basic characteristics of DSS has very important significance.
The basic characteristics of DSS can be summarized as follows:
DSS is a subcategory of IS. It is a computer-based system.
The basic components of DSS include databases, model bases, data processing technique,
and information presentation system.
DSS is designed for decision makers. The input, output, origin needs and objectives of
DSS are all from the decision makers.
It has a human-computer communication interface for non-computer professionals to
easily operate.
It has an emphasis on decision support, but it does not replace the decision-makers in
making decision. The payoff is in extending the range and capability of managers
decision making processes to help them improve the effectiveness of their decisions.
It is user oriented. Because the decision-making process is dynamic, decisions should be
made dynamically according to different environment, different users requirements, the
understanding of users decision question and the available knowledge.
2.2.2 DSS and MIS
Over the years, there have been disputes regarding DSS and Management Information
Systems (MIS). Some scholars think that MIS includes DSS, while others suggest that MIS is
a sub-concept of DSS. Still others suggest that DSS is a separate category all together. The
reason why people cannot distinguish the two systems is because both are sub categories of IS
and can help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of an organization. In addition, they can,
to some extent, assist in making decisions as well. Therefore, it is necessary and important to
understand the difference between the two systems.
2.2.2.1 The definition of MIS
According to O'Brien and Marakas (2005), Management Information System (MIS) is
regarded as a subset of the overall internal controls procedures in a business, which covers the
16

application of people, documents, technologies, and procedures used by staff members to
solve business problems. Academically, the term is commonly used to refer to the group of
information management methods tied to the automation or support of human decision
making.
The functions of MIS are mainly as follows:
Provide timely and comprehensive information and data to help achieve the goal of a
given decision.
Prepare and provide a unified format for the information and data and simplify all
statistical work.
Use specified mathematical models to analyze the data, and then predict the future based
on past situations.
According to the requirements, give different reports to different level of managers, with
the prospect of helping them to analyze and interpret the reports as soon as possible to
make the decision more efficient.
2.2.2.2 The difference between DSS and MIS
The relationship between DSS and MIS is an ongoing question of debate. In this study, DSS
and MIS are considered related, but not the same. Based on the study of Sprague (1980), the
major differences between the two concepts are summarized below:
Different user
DSS is mostly designed for senior staff to assist them in making decisions whereas MIS is
generally used by middle class managers or staff members to serve their daily operations.
Different problems to deal with
DSS supports semi-structured decision-making. Such decisions are complex, and they cannot
always be accurately described. In addition, a large amount of calculations are needed. It is
necessary to apply the computer and users participation to achieve satisfactory results. On the
other hand, MIS employs back structured decision-making, and such decisions are known,
predictable, and often repetitive.
Different system structure
17

DSS is always a model driven system and has a model base. DSS is constructed through a
combination of multiple models to support decision-making, and its analysis is focus on the
needs of policy makers.
Meanwhile, MIS is generally a data driven system and has a data base. MIS is an integrated
multiple-transaction EDP (Electronic Data Processing) based on the transaction functions
(production, marketing, personnel etc.). Its analysis focuses on the overall information needs
of the system, and the pattern of output report is fixed.
Different pursuit
In general, DSS is used to assess validity, that is, whether decisions are effective. However,
the pursuit of MIS is efficiency, which needs quick inquiry as well as quick statistical results
and reports.
In conclusion, DSS is user-oriented and emphasizes support for decision makers from external
environmental information, internal comprehensive information and personal experiences etc.
However, MIS focuses on the integrity of the information flow inside of the management
system, to provide all staff the information needed. MIS cannot meet the requirement of
decision makers to assist them in decision making, as it cannot provide the external
information or adapt to personal decision making style, which are important elements of
decision making.
2.2.3 The generic architecture of DSS
This section is the theoretical basis of chapter 4.2. According to Burstein & Holsapple (2008),
the generic architecture of DSS consists of four essential parts: Language system (LS),
Presentation System (PS), Knowledge System (KS) and Problem-Processing System (PPS).
The first three are representational systems, which are used by the PPS (the active component
of DSS). The relationship among the four elements can be illustrated by the graph below:
18


Figure 2-1 General architecture for DSS (adapted from Burstein & Holsapple, 2008)

User
Theoretically, the user of a DSS could only be the decision maker. However, administrators,
DSS developers, data entry persons and facilitators can also be considered as users.
LS
The LS consists of all information the DSS can accept, including the language for users or
models to retrieve data and the language by which users can operate the computer. Decision
makers use the LS to describe their problems as the first step to get the final decision. The
main function of this system is to accept knowledge, clarify knowledge and recall knowledge.
PS
The PS consists of all messages the DSS can emit. It consists of two parts: providing
knowledge and seeking knowledge. According to the order, the PS first seeks the knowledge
it needs to emit. By choosing a PS element to present, it provides users responses that PPS
emits.
KS
The KS is constructed by all knowledge the DSS has stored and retained, including
descriptive knowledge, procedural knowledge or reasoning knowledge. All the knowledge is
subject to use by PPS.
PPS
19

The PSS is the core of DSS, which tries to recognize and solve problems during the decision
making process. There are two types of abilities in the PPS, first order ability and second
order ability.
The first order ability is mainly constructed by five knowledge manipulation abilities, namely,
knowledge acquisition, knowledge assimilation, knowledge selection, knowledge generation
and knowledge emission. These abilities are primary, front line abilities and contribute to the
outcome of a particular decision episode. The second order ability includes the function of
coordination, control and measurement, which are concerned with governance of the first
order ability within and across decision episodes. The PSS is asked to process a LS element,
and this processing requires the PPS to select some portion of the KS contents (first order
ability) and then apply second order ability to change the knowledge held by coordination,
control and measurement. In other words, some portion of the PSS are covert (strictly internal,
yielding assimilations of knowledge into the KS) and others are overt (witnessed by the user
via PPS knowledge emission of PS elements).
This generic DSS architecture only provides the fundamental common parts of DSS. To fully
appreciate any specific DSS, we should know the particular requests making up its LS, the
particular responses making up its PS, the particular knowledge representation existing in its
KS, and the particular knowledge processing capabilities of its PPS.
2.2.4 The types of DSS
Although we learned the common base and some fundamental terms from the generic
architecture of DSS, it is necessary to distinguish among different DSS. In the research by
Burstein & Holsapple (2008)

, eight types of DSS are introduced. For the purposes of the
current study, these can be summarized into four types which provide the overall picture of
the development of DSS.
2.2.4.1 Text-oriented DSS
In a text-oriented DSS, the LS contains requests concerned with the allowed manipulations as
well as user requests for assistance from the DSS. The PS consists of images of stored text
that can be emitted. In addition, the KS of text-oriented DSS is made up of electronic
documents; each message in the KS is potentially interesting to the decision maker. Finally,
the PPS is constructed by some software that can perform various manipulations on contents
of any of the stored documents. With a text-oriented DSS, people can easily keep electronic
notes, supporting decision makers by electronically keeping track of textually represented
knowledge.
20

2.2.4.2 Database-oriented DSS
The main differences between text-oriented DSS and database-oriented DSS focus on KS and
PPS. In database-oriented DSS, all files that make up of the KS hold information about table
structures plus the actual data value contents of each table. The PPS consist of three kinds of
software: a database control system, an interactive query processing system and various
custom-build processing systems. The database control system consists of capabilities for
manipulating table structures and contents (e.g., defining or revising table structures, finding
or updating records, and building new tables from existing ones). The query processing
system can respond to certain standard types of requests for data retrieval, and the
custom-built processing system is developed to meet the specific needs of the DSS user on
marketing, production, financial or other application. In all, the data handled by
database-oriented DSS tend to be primarily descriptive, rigidly structured and extremely
voluminous.
2.2.4.3 Rule-oriented DSS
Rule-oriented DSS is constructed by a knowledge management technique that involves
representing and processing rules. The logic of decision making is if the premise is true, then
the conclusion is valid. Users of rule-oriented DSS can issue requests, and then LS contains
requests for advice and requests for explanation. Correspondingly, the PS includes messages
presenting advice and explanations. In addition, the KS holds one or more rule sets which can
pertain to reasoning about what recommendation or explanation to give a user regarding a
particular subject. Finally the PSS has capabilities for creating, revising and deleting state
descriptions, and it also has the ability to explain its behavior both during and after
conducting the inference.
2.2.4.4 Compound DSS
Compound DSS frameworks tend to combine more than one knowledge-management
techniques (text, database, or rule management) together to support the decision maker. There
are two ways to make compound DSS:
Multiple DSSs, each oriented toward a particular technique
In this framework, because each DSS has its own LS and PS, multiple staff assistants are
needed to operate each system and then decision maker has to translate responses from one
DSS into requests to another DSS in order to get the final decision.
Single DSS, encompassing multiple techniques
21

This option only needs a staff assistant who is good at multiple knowledge management
techniques as there are one LS and one PS for decision maker to learn. The effort required of
a decision maker who wants to use results of one technique in the processing of another
technique varies depending on the way in which the multiple techniques have been integrated
into a single compound DSS.
2.2.5 The application of DSS
Based on a detailed literature survey of 1,020 DSS articles published from 1990 to 2003,
Arnott & Pervan (2005) revealed that the main application of DSS generally focused on three
approaches: analysis based on quantitative models, assessment depending on large data bases
and supporting group decision making. Lots of model-oriented DSS research stresses
application of individual systems, such as personal DSS; on the other hand, institutional,
organizational or ad hoc DSS are mostly data-base oriented DSS. Group DSS always stressed
effects on decision process structuring.
Eom and some other scholars studied 674 articles on DSS between the year 1971 and 2001 to
show the development of DSS application (H. Eom & Lee, 1990; S. Eom & Kim, 2006; SB
Eom, Lee, Kim, & Somarajan, 1998). The recent survey suggests that governments have the
most DSS applications in the non-corporate area.
These government applications are distributed among data-processing
acquisitions (Barba-Romero, 2001), online crisis management (Mak et al, 1999),
managing the DOE
13
hazardous waste cleanup program, US bridge networks
improvement, medium-term economic planning, Chinas coal and electricity
planning, railway infrastructure scenarios development, and random
sampling-based testing of urine specimens instead of testing all collected
specimens (Chari et al, 1998). (S. Eom & Kim, 2006, p. 5)



13
DOE refers to Department of Energy
22

Chapter 3 Issues of earthquake emergency management DSS
3.1 Case introduction and current situation analysis
The purpose of this chapter is to identify the main functions a DSS should serve in order to
address a Chinese local governments decision support needs in earthquake emergency
management. This will be done on the basis of an analysis of the current use of IS for
emergency management in Beijing, and a qualitative case study of earthquake emergency
management in the city of Pengzhou.
In chapter 3.1, the general information of Pengzhou is introduced, and then Beijings
emergency management MIS is given as an example to illustrate the current situation of
earthquake emergency management with DSS in China. Its main functions for decision
support are analyzed, and then the current situation of earthquake emergency management
with DSS in China is discussed. Finally, based on information from relevant documents and
the current situation analysis, some deficiencies of current earthquake emergency
management are discussed.
3.1.1 General introduction
Pengzhou, a county-level city in Sichuan province of China, is about 19 kilometers northwest
of Chengdu.
14
It had an area of 1,420 square kilometers, 20 towns and a population of
803,400 in 2009.
15
Like other regions around the area, Pengzhou was badly damaged by the
2008 Wen Chuan Earthquake. The epicenter was only 45 kilometers away from the center
town of Pengzhou (Tianpeng). Some towns near the mountainous area, such as Longmenshan
and Xiaoyudong experienced heavy damage, because the seismic intensity in those areas
reached a magnitude of 11, the maximum intensity in the Wen Chuan earthquake. After the
earthquake, the Pengzhou government made a quick response and set up the relief command
headquarter (figure 1-1) to guide the rescue and coordinate with the upper level government.
Official figures stated that 956 people were confirmed dead and 5,775 people injured with 35
listed as missing. The earthquake led a direct economic loss of 239.1 billion Yuan to
Pengzhou.
16
Historically, there have been twenty four earthquakes above 4.0 magnitude in

14
Pengzhou Official Website (2010). Overview of Pengzhou. Retrieved online on 6 August, 2010 from
http://www.pengzhou.gov.cn/index.asp
15
China Statistics Information (2010). City Statistics Bulletin of Pengzhou. Retrieved online on 6 August, 2010
from http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2008-06/24/content_1026042.html.
16
Pengzhou Official Website (2009). 2008 Wen Chuan earthquake work summary. Retrieved online on 6
August, 2010 from
http://www.chengdu.gov.cn/GovInfoOpens2/detail_allpurpose.jsp?id=VhsI2ihgJ 1kuixtU1J 4Q
23

Pengzhou, including three that were stronger than 5.0 magnitude, and the strongest having a
magnitude of 5.4.
17

According to Pengzhou Public Emergency Response Plan (Pengzhou, 2006), different level of
earthquake would require related level of government to handle. The Wen Chuan
earthquake is so serious that both central government and provincial government are all
involved in some decision making processes. While as the study is conducted to build a DSS
for the local government of Pengzhou, analyzing the current decision making processes of
Pengzhou will be enough to help this research.
Respondent 1 said, Decisions need to be made by Pengzhou government mainly depend on
the relief command headquarter (Figure 1-1), which was constituted by leaders from different
departments of the government. Mayor takes the responsibilities of the command headquarter.
Generally, problems are discussed with related sub-groups during the emergency management
meeting. If most of the participated people agreed with the proposed schedule or plan, then
the decision would be made. Sometimes experts and people from executive organization
would attend the decision making meeting, but most time they only provide their suggestions
rather than involving decision making (respondent 14).
In addition, the current working process of earthquake emergency management in Pengzhou
is illustrated in figure 3-1. Once the earthquake happens, emergency management office in
Pengzhou government will take some actions firstly, such as, going to the earthquake area,
organizing emergency management troops and setting up the temporary relief command
headquarter. Secondly, according to the classification standard, the command headquarter
would activate relevant emergency plan. Thirdly, according to the emergency plan, the
command headquarter would make decisions on conducting the rescue and coordinating the
related resources. Fourth, once the earthquake risk is eliminated and approved by the upper
level government, the emergency management is finished. Then the reconstruction of affected
area would be taken place. Finally, the evaluation of the whole working process should be
conducted.

17
China Earthquake Information (2010). Earthquakes above 4.0 Magnitude in Sichuan. Retrieved online on 6
August, 2010 from http://www.csi.ac.cn/sichuan/index080512001.htm
24


Figure 3-1 Working process of earthquake emergency management in Pengzhou
18

3.1.2 Current situation of earthquake emergency management with DSS in China
Most cities in China have not yet begun to construct earthquake emergency management DSS.
However, some developed cities like Beijing have established emergency management MIS.
It is necessary to know the current situation firstly and find the deficiency, then according to
the problems to search the solutions; therefore studying an example of current emergency
management IS is the foundation for the development of DSS. Once the current situation is
well understood, the deficiency of the current system would be well analyzed, and finally a
better DSS would be built.
Meanwhile, the reason why this study considers the Beijings current emergency management
IS to be an MIS, rather than DSS, is summarized below. According to the answers from
respondents 2 and 3, the systems construction goal is to integrate information flow inside of
the management system (not for decision making). Therefore, its main pursuit is efficiency,
not validity. Secondly, this system only contains certain preliminary decision making
functions in some of its subsystems, which means it cannot solve complex semi-structured
questions and therefore cannot meet the requirement of decision makers to assist them in

18
This figure is directly cited from the Pengzhou Public Emergency Response Plan (General) and translated into
English by author.
25

making decisions. Finally, like other MIS, the current structures serve all related staff (not
only the decision makers).
Respondent 3 explained that Pengzhou had begun to build its office automation system (using
computers to digitally create, collect, store, manipulate, and relay office information needed
for accomplishing basic tasks) in 2007. However, there is no emergency management DSS
system in Pengzhou (Respondent 1). Therefore, studying the situation in Pengzhou cannot
tell us a lot about the current usage of IS in Chinese emergency management. Thus, choosing
Beijings emergency MIS as an example to illustrate the current situation of using IS for
emergency management will assist us in our goal of designing an ideal DSS architecture for
Chinese local government.
By studying the decision making functions in Beijings current emergency MIS, we can get a
rough view on the emergency management DSS construction situation in China. Because
Beijing as the capital of China, is the central government of China, and its emergency MIS
represents the most advanced technology applied in Chinese emergency management. In
addition, as is known, China has a central-governance political system, and the governance is
always from up to down. Once a policy or an innovation is well executed in central
government, it will promote to the provincial and local government. The most advanced DSS
is studied, and then its analyzed deficiencies would be more helpful to guide the construction
of the ideal DSS framework.
There are four subsystems most concerned with decision making in emergency MIS of
Beijing (Li & Ding, 2008). These are emergency command system, emergency technical
support system, emergency plan system and emergency logistics system. The decision
making functions of the four subsystems are analyzed below:
Emergency command system
According to Liu & Ren (2009), the emergency command system is made up of three layers.
First, the decision making layer, as a unified and integrated leading system, serves Beijing
emergency command center to make basic decisions, such as early warning and resource
allocation. Second is the system technical support layer, which serves as a comprehensive
decision making platform. Its main decision making support functions include collecting
first-hand information, compiling emergency plans, and managing various emergency
response data bases. Finally, the implementation layer is used to facilitate communications
26

during the emergency, record the emergency materials distribution and release emergency
news (Shizhu Liu & Ren, 2009, pp. 6-7).
Furthermore, some monitoring equipments can be considered as part of the emergency
command system, such as on-site monitoring and on-site rescue command vehicles, which
have dynamic monitoring and early warning functions.
Emergency technical support system
This system includes the network communication subsystem, information database
subsystem, emergency assessment subsystem, and rescue subsystem. Among these, the
emergency assessment subsystem provides intelligent mathematical models to support the
emergency evaluation and some relevant decision making functions (Shizhu Liu & Ren, 2009,
p. 8).
Emergency plan system
Beijing's emergency plan system contains the overall emergency plan and counties sub
emergency plans (in total: 35 emergency plans). The construction of an emergency plan
system is relatively out of date. Although there are many emergency plans, most of them are
not imported into the information system. Furthermore, even though some emergency plans
are stored in the system, it still is static and cannot adjust according to changes. Thus, when
confronted with disasters, the emergency plans cannot function effectively. Due to this
lagging construction of emergency plans, the auxiliary decision support function of the
emergency plan system is not achieved (Shizhu Liu & Ren, 2009, pp. 10-11).
Emergency logistics system
The emergency logistics systems functions include the financial budgeting of emergency
system operation, and rescue materials management. The function of rescue equipment and
materials management can help decision making about how to distribute resources reasonably
and how to ensure an effective resource scheduling (Shizhu Liu & Ren, 2009, p. 14).
All in all, based on the study of Liu & Ren (2009), it is easy to see that the current decision
support function of emergency MIS in Beijing is relatively insufficient for it cannot well
satisfy decision makers needs and help them with decision making.
3.1.3 Earthquake emergency management deficiencies
In order to understand why and where a DSS would be a useful improvement for earthquake
management in China, we first have to identify where the main deficiencies are in the current
system of Chinese earthquake management.
27

Based on the analysis of Beijings emergency management MIS, combining document review
and the interviews in Pengzhou, this section will discuss some general deficiencies of
earthquake emergency management in China which can be used to guide the goal and
function analysis in the next section. Here, the deficiencies are listed as follows:
(1) The level of DSS on emergency management in China is low. This argument is based on
what we discussed in the previous section and the interview with respondent 1. Since the
construction of DSS in China is at an exploratory stage, only some developed cities, like
Beijing, have MIS with decision support functions, and their systems are more concerned with
post-emergency response and recovery. Furthermore, the allocation and scheduling of
emergency resources depend more on experience or static method rather than applying
intelligent decision technology (respondent 1 and 4). What is worse, the local government has
no DSS, and most of them only have very basic office automation systems.
(2) The early warning mechanism is not perfect. According to respondent 2, the standard
warning operation processes and rules are not yet established. In addition, because of
insufficient integration, analysis and judgment to monitoring data, it is difficult to recognize
and report the dangerous factors (which may trigger or worsen an earthquake) earlier, and this
influences the effect of early warning analysis.
(3) An earthquake classification index system has not been well established. According to
Pengzhou earthquake emergency plan, there are some grading standards, but these standards
are just a general description, which needs to be further detailed during its implementation to
form a sound emergency evaluation index system. Besides, the existing classification system
is more like an ex-post evaluation, as its judgment is based solely on the impact and severity
of disasters.
(4) Lack of classification on the emergency agencies. The vast majority of emergency
classification objects are disaster events; very few do evaluation and classification on
emergency response agencies. Combing disaster event with response agencies to estimate the
emergency response capability is even less common (Respondent 2). However, based on his
experience, respondent 2 highly recommends the combination of seismic classification with
organization classification to determine emergency plan selection, and he is trying to build
organization classification standards. However, the standards are not well developed and the
evaluation of emergency agencies is mainly confined to the static assessment.
28

(5) The management of the emergency plan should be improved. On the one hand, the
Pengzhou government has not established an evaluation working mechanism for emergency
plan (respondent 3). Although there are many emergency plans, most of them are just in file
cabinets, and lack necessary training and drilling (respondent 7). When earthquakes happen,
the emergency plans may not function effectively. On the other hand, decision makers often
make judgment subjectively on choosing emergency plans in the plan database, without
scientific analysis (respondent 4). Therefore, it is better to emphasize the support function of
DSS on plan assessment and selection.
(6) It is difficult to adjust the emergency plan dynamically according to change of the
earthquake and environment. After analyzing the overall and specialized emergency plans (e.g.
Pengzhou public emergency plan and Pengzhou earthquake emergency plan), it seems that
many of the existing emergency plans simply state that: action should be taken to adjust to
the change of events and environment, but they do not explain how to make such
adjustments. Therefore, it is better for a DSS helps to do so according to the scientific
analysis, improving the effect of disaster control.
(7) There are conflicts between working procedure and working philosophy among different
emergency response groups, which makes the current emergency decision making process
more complex and inefficient (respondent 3 and 11). Because of the different nature of
various departments, they have formed their own effective way and method of working - the
working philosophy and process of decision making in different departments have their own
characteristics (respondent 3). During emergency response, all the departments should work
together. Thus how to use the DSS to coordinate different departments, reconstruct their
decision making process, and improve decision making efficiency become the core issues we
need to consider. Once a DSS working process is settled, this problem would be resolved as
people would work according to the procedures (respondent 11).
(8) There are potential conflicts between information resource integration and data
maintenance (respondent 7, 13 and 14). Earthquake emergency management is based on
information, and formulating emergency decision making plans is inseparable from the
integration and sharing of information. However, if the rights and responsibilities between
departments are not clear (respondent 14), this will cause many problems in information
collection and exchange. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an information-sharing and
obtainment mechanism to ensure more accurate and effective decision making when
earthquakes happen (respondent 7).
29

3.2 DSS goal and function analysis
In this section, firstly, the decision support needs are analyzed. Then, based on the deficiency
and support needs analysis, the DSS construction goal will be discussed. Finally, by summing
up the decision support needs, the general functions of DSS would be obtained.
3.2.1 Decision support needs analysis
Based on the interviews, decisions that need support are summarized in the table below. As is
shown in table 3-1, in order to analyze these more logically, decision support needs have been
divided into three stages: pre-earthquake, during earthquake and post-earthquake.
In the first stage, the decision needs mainly come from respondent 1, 2 and 3. Their major
decision support needs are whether to take some countermeasures or warn people. At this
stage, the top commanders are eager to know all precise and timely information, especially
earthquake impacts of different towns (such as: damage, loss and casualties) and potential
earthquake related events.
Once the earthquake happens, emergency management should take place. Decision support
needs at this stage focus on emergency plan and resource management. All of the respondents
mentioned that plan selection is one of the issues for which they need support. Because of
deficient information on earthquake impacts and the selection criteria, when facing the
multitude of plans in the archive, decision makers struggle to know which plan would best fit
the unfolding situation. Sometimes in serious situation, they may just ignore the plans and
make decision by themselves (Respondent 1, 3 and 4). When making decisions to change the
plan, I act according to the current situation of earthquake and my working experience. If I
can get some help from others that would be perfect (Respondent 7).
The other big issue is resource management; with the exception of respondents 12, 13, and 14,
almost all the interviewees mentioned this problem. They suggested that the resource
requirement evaluation is very difficult in a short time, which results in lots of waste and
people complain as some who need resources does not receive them. The distribution
scheme is mainly designed by our experience and some basic statistic data (Respondent 4, 5
and 8). Respondent 9 also wants DSS to help decision making regarding information
dissemination. Therefore, in emergency response stage, DSS needs to assist decision makers
to evaluate earthquake impacts, select and adjust plans, analyze resource need, design
resource distribution schemes, and communicate between different groups.

30

Table 3-1 Decision support needs
Stage
Decisions that need to be
supported
Detail support needs
Pre-earthquake
Whether they should take
countermeasures?
What measures to take?
Whether they need warn
people?

Monitoring and forecasting
earthquake relevant events
Analysis earthquake impacts
to different towns in the city
of Pengzhou
Determine potential
casualties, damage and loss
assessment
Earthquake information
storage and retrieval issue
During earthquake
(emergency
management /
reconstruction)
How to respond to the
earthquake? Which
emergency plan can they
choose?
How to adjust the
emergency plans
dynamically according to
the development of
earthquake?
How to distribute resources
effectively? (e.g. food,
shelter, clothes, health care,
Psychological counseling,
etc.)
Monitoring and forecasting
earthquake relevant events
Evaluate the possible
earthquake impacts
Selection criteria issues
Emergency plan assessment,
selection and adjustment
Evaluate the need for
resource (e.g. food,
temporary shelters)
Suitable plans for resource
distribution and scheduling
Execution of effective
mitigation measures for
earthquake
Earthquake information
dissemination
Communication and
collaboration between
different groups
Post-earthquake
What measures to take
during the reconstruction
phase?
How to distribute resources
effectively? (e.g. food,
shelter, clothes, health care,
Psychological counseling,
etc.)
How to evaluate the relief
performance?
Evaluate the need for
resource (e.g. long-term
rooms, jobs )
Suitable plans for resource
distribution and scheduling
Performance evaluation


31

In the last stage, the major needs are decisions on reconstruction and performance evaluation.
Reconstruction is the major issue during the post-earthquake phase which need decision
maker to decide what reconstruction measures they should take, how to allocate resources to
satisfy the demands of victims. Every respondent noted the issue of evaluation. One
respondent mentioned, We dont have any evaluation standard and method, what we used to
evaluate the performance of Wen Chuan earthquake are quite different from group to group
(mainly based on experience), and this doesnt help improving earthquake emergency
management.
3.2.2 DSS goal analysis
Based on the insights gained through the combination of the study of current situation and
problems of emergency management MIS in Beijing, the general decision support needs of
Pengzhou government and the process of emergency management discussed in chapter two,
we can determine a concrete goal of DSS construction: to achieve an overall earthquake
emergency process management early warning before earthquake, emergency
management decision making during and evaluation afterwards. Early warning is more
concerned with Mitigation and Preparedness which are taken prior to an emergency;
Response and Recovery refers to decision making during the emergency management;
and evaluation means the performance assessment after the whole process of the
earthquake.
DSS should give full play to early warning. Collecting earthquake monitoring information,
and analyzing it, allows an early diagnosis and evaluation about the earthquake and its
possible deterioration to be done. Therefore, one basic goal of DSS is to help prediction and
taking effective measures in advance.
When an earthquake occurs, DSS should work comprehensively and immediately: providing
suitable emergency plans to decision makers for reference, utilizing relevant information on
rescue equipment, manpower, materials, shelters and medical facilities from pertinent data
bases to construct a distribution scheme to allocate resources immediately. At the same time,
in the process of emergency, it also needs to adjust emergency plans, in order to realize an
effective treatment of a given earthquake.
After the earthquake, DSS should be able to assess the effect of emergency decision making
proposing the improvements on the deficiencies and inputting new cases or improvements
into the emergency plan data base, and then it can optimize emergency plan management,
resource allocation.
32

3.2.3 DSS function analysis
Function analysis refers to the refining of decision support needs. According to our discussion
about decision support needs and DSS goal as well as Chinas national earthquake emergency
management plan, ensuring the fulfillment of decision support needs requires the following
DSS functions:
Function 1: early warning analysis. Based on China national earthquake emergency
management plan and the interviews, it is easy to ascertain that warning should be a basic
function. If the DSS can predict the possible development trends of an earthquake, analyze the
earthquakes impacts on different geographical locations, and determine the damage and
casualties, it will help to control and relieve these disasters.
Function 2: seismic event classification. The classification mentioned here is different from
Richter scale, and the difference between seismic event classification and Richter scale is
discussed in chapter 4.1.2.1. According to the internally installed earthquake classification
index system and the first-hand information on earthquake, DSS determines the severity of
the earthquake automatically. The classification of seismic event is the foundation of
earthquake relief. It is the classification that serves as the basis for matching appropriate
organizations to certain tasks and choosing emergency plans.
Function 3: organization classification. With the same logic as seismic event classification,
based on the installed organization classification index system, use the DSS to classify
organizations automatically and then match them to related earthquake events. Only by
combining the seismic event and organization classification together with the related
emergency plan, then the execution might be the most effective one. Organization
classification is mainly concerned with the organizations comprehensive support capabilities.
Function 4: emergency plan assessment. DSS should be able to support the evaluation of the
emergency plan: nowadays, the emergency plan assessment usually takes place through
experts and training (Respondent 1 and 14), which is not necessarily that efficient as most of
the assessed emergency plans are not used any more. If the emergency plan assessment can be
achieved in a DSS and stored in the emergency plan data base, emergency plans can be
quickly retrieved and executed in the event of an earthquake. In addition, during the
earthquake, the DSS can also provide periodic assessment according to the actual effect.
Function 5: emergency plan selection. According to the decision support need analysis, it is
clear that how to choose the most appropriate response plan from the emergency plan
33

data-base according to the seismic level and organization capacity is one major problem the
DSS needs to solve. It needs to compare the seismic events classification and organization
classification with the usage conditions of each emergency plan, and then select the most
suitable emergency plan to be the basic response solution.
Function 6: emergency plan dynamic adjustment. The system should be able to
dynamically adjust the emergency plans objectives, content, and resource allocation,
according to the development of earthquake. This can improve the performance of earthquake
emergency management.
Function 7: resource distribution. From the decision support needs, we can tell that resource
management is one major issue during the earthquake response process. This function is
defined as working to achieve a more rational distribution of resources based on the dynamic
demand of emergency resources and its changing trends.
Function 8: resource scheduling. The scheduling of emergency resources is a dynamic
multi-stage resource scheduling, which needs to consider the change of resource situation and
the effect of previous stages. Hence, we need to study how to carry out the optimal dynamic
scheduling of emergency resources in DSS.
Function 9: decision information obtainment. Based on the analysis of decision support
need, storage and retrieval of earthquake related information and communication between
different groups are also a problem area. In addition, the implementation of effective decision
making functions relies on the quick obtainment of decision-making information. However,
the widespread existence of information shortage among groups seriously affects the sharing
of information resources and effective decision-making. Therefore, obtaining decision support
information should be one basic function which needs to be achieved.
Function 10: decision-making performance evaluation. For the overall process
management, it is necessary to study how to establish a related performance assessment
system to automatically realize the performance evaluation in DSS.
Looking over these ten decision support functions, we find that some decision making
functions share the same theoretical background and knowledge. In order to simplify the
research, some of the functions will be considered together. As is known, resource
management is the major part of emergency plan, in addition, during our interviews, eight
informants mentioned that resource management is important decision that they should make.
However, all existing emergency plans in Pengzhou do not explain on how to allocate
34

resources, only using one passage to state out which kind of resource they need to provide to
people. In order to emphasize the importance of resource management, it is discussed
separately - not under the category of plan management. Therefore, these DSS functions are
divided into six categories, as shown in the table below. We will then study the working
processes and data flow of each function in the next chapter.
Table3-2 the function analysis of DSS
Num. Function Category
1 Early warning analysis Early warning analysis
2 Seismic event classification
3
Organization classification and
matching
Classification
4 Emergency plan assessment
5 Emergency plan selection
6
Emergency plan dynamic
adjustment
Emergency plan management
7 Resource distribution
8 Resource scheduling
Resource management
9 Decision information obtainment Decision information obtainment
10
Decision-making performance
evaluation
Decision-making performance
evaluation

35

Chapter 4 Design of earthquake emergency management DSS
4.1 DSS business process and data flow analysis
This section will give an in-depth analysis of the working process and data process for each
function. The reason why we limit the discussion to only working process and data process is,
firstly, our research question is focused on the general architecture of DSS and many
functions should be discussed, and accordingly, choosing two important factors of DSS
construction to analyze is reasonable; secondly, analyzing the information allocation
mechanism is one of our secondary research tasks.
4.1.1 Early warning analysis
(1) Early warning analysis working process
According to our interview and the Pengzhou Public Emergency Response Plan (Pengzhou,
2006), the working process of DSS early warning function can be illustrated in the figure
below:

Figure 4-1 Early warning analysis working process
19

As is shown in the figure, early warning analysis depends on the internal and external
environment change before and after the earthquake. Internal environment is the management,
technology and equipment level of the emergency management system. External environment

19
In the fingures of all working process analysis, rectangles presentet he general working steps; the column is
the representive of databases.
36

mainly concerns other factors which are related to earthquake, such as natural environment,
public policies (public security, urban planning and construction) and human factors. Based
on monitoring, distinguishing, diagnosing and assessing the internal and external environment
factors, signs of emergency can be detected in a timely fashion and then decision makers can
take measures to warn people and control the relevant risk. If an earthquake does not happen,
safe status will be restored, the warning will be cancelled and the system will go back to
warning analysis again. Otherwise, an earthquake occurs, triggers emergency management
and some further warning analysis is also needed. Therefore, early warning is not only in the
phase of pre-earthquake, but also in emergency management.
According to She (2000), early warning analysis function mainly includes four stages, namely,
monitoring, distinguishing, diagnosing and assessing. Monitoring is the basis of the early
warning systems operation; diagnosing and assessing are the technical analysis processes.
There is an orderly causal relationship among them (see figure 4-2).
Monitor
Warning is primarily based on information from monitoring. Therefore, monitoring is the
basis of warning analysis, and it needs to include a sensitive monitoring function which can
convert the original information (as historical information or earthquake information) to
certain signals for decision makers, which help them get accurate warning information.
Distinguish
Distinguishing is using an evaluation index system to analyze the monitoring information and
recognize the signs and triggers of earthquake and earthquake related events (such as, "barrier
lakes"
20
, debris flow) before and during the process of emergency management. The key is to
use an appropriate evaluation index to distinguish the signals out of the information.
Diagnose
Diagnosis is used for analyzing the formation, process and development trends of the
observed signs and triggers of earthquake and its related events during a warning or crisis
status and for pointing out the most dangerous and harmful hazard-formative factors. It is
important to analyze the variation of an earthquake or earthquake related event and its
possible chain reaction, judge whether it is the dangerous factor and make an alarm when
necessary.
Assess

20
Water was shoved from its bed by rock and mud slides set off by the earthquakes.
37

Assessment is a harm evaluation of the adverse consequences of an earthquake or earthquake
related event, which mainly focuses on two elements: one analyzing the harm to people and
the other the economic loss to city. The appraisal conclusion is the foundation of the control
countermeasures.
(2) Early warning analysis data process
On the basis of a clear warning working processes analysis, we can draw a data flow diagram
(Figure 4-2) showing the logic of the corresponding data flow, processing and storage in early
warning analysis.

Figure 4-2 Early warning analysis data flow
21

The analysis of early warning data flow is mainly focused around the monitor,
distinguish, diagnose and assess stages. Firstly, earthquake monitoring information is
input to monitor model. After collating and classifying the monitoring information, monitor
model will then deposit some useful information into monitoring information database (D1.1).
Secondly, on the basis of D1.1, the information goes into the distinguish process where the
information is analyzed to identify the indicators of a potential earthquake or earthquake
related events. Thirdly, at the stage of diagnose, some diagnosis on the determined risk
factors are conducted by comparing the factors with the historical warning data (D1.3). The
greatest risk factors are then identified, which are stated out in a generated warning diagnosis

21
In the fingures of all data flow analysis, rectangles with elliptical angles show the main working process in
each function; flags are the representives of databases or reports that input into the DSS or generated from
the DSS; rectangle presentets decision maker; and the ellipses are the representive of information sources.
38

report (D1.4). Finally, going to the assess stage, DSS does some evaluation on the potential
harms, and then produces a warning evaluation report (D1.5) for decision makers.
4.1.2 Classification
The Classification of earthquake emergency management is the recognition of incident level
according to the importance of addressing a given problem, including seismic event
classification and organization classification. Seismic event classification is achieved by
inputting information on causes, nature, influence and harm of earthquakes according to an
evaluation index system, which allows the system to classify the earthquake level
automatically. This classification is more comprehensive than Richter magnitude scale as it is
not only based on Richter magnitude scale, but also takes into consideration the cause, nature,
potential influence and harm to people. Organization classification involves a similar input of
information into DSS according to the relevant organizations importance, emergency
response capacity, resource status, management level, and an installed evaluation index
system, which allows the system to classify organizations automatically. We will further
discuss these two variants of classification in the following sections.
4.1.2.1 Seismic event classification
(1) Seismic event classification working process
Nowadays, most of the countries in the world have adopted classification technology in
emergency management, such as U.S. federal emergency plan
22
and China national
earthquake emergency plan
23
. However, in China, most of the classification is made by
individual people. Here, we would like DSS to realize this function automatically.
To be specific, in this process we need to first input basic information about earthquakes.
After which, DSS will operate immediately by comparing this information with the internally
installed classification index system, and the resultant classification will be generated. This is
shown in Figure 4-3.

22
Federal Emergency Management Agency (2008). National Response Framwork. Retrieved online on 9
August, 2010 from http://www.fema.gov/emergency/nrf/index.htm.
23
The Central Peoples Government of the Peoples Republic of China (2008). National Public Emergency Plan
System. Retrieved online on 1 August, 2010 from http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2005-08/31/content_27872.htm.

39


Figure 4-3 Seismic event classification working process
According to Wu & Liu (2003b), some factors can affect the seismic event classification
index system, and they should be taken into consideration when constructing a classification
index system database of DSS. Here, I have summarized seven factors which might help to
show the difference between this classification method and Richter magnitude scale.
Seismic event side
Time. When does the earthquake happen? Day or night? Workday or weekend? How
long does the earthquake last?
Damage level. Such as casualty, economic losses.
Coverage. Such as the affected area or population of the earthquake.
Diffusion elements. Check whether the earthquake can result in some epidemic
disease.
Management side
Cognitive degree. At current level of scientific knowledge, what is the research
situation on earthquake emergency management? The less cognition, the more serious
the earthquake.
Social influence level. Different levels of earthquake will have different impact on
socio-economic development and people's life. The bigger social influence is, the
more serious the earthquake is.
Resources guarantee level. The higher the level of the resources guarantee is, the
bigger the probability of a successful rescue.
In brief, the Richter magnitude scale is more technical and is mainly concerned with how to
calculate the exact degree of earthquake rather than analyzing the earthquakes effect on
people or society. For instance, a very high magnitude earthquake may not be that serious if
40

there are no people living in the affected area. What we want to emphasize here is that
earthquake classification should consider more factors to make decisions more precise.
(2) Seismic event classification data flow
According to the seismic event classification working process, its data flow can be designed
as shown in figure 4-4. From D2.1, DSS can get the basic information about an earthquake
immediately. Meanwhile, DSS calls the classification index system database (D2.2) and
combines the two information sources, which allows DSS to do the analysis and classification
automatically. Finally, the classification results are generated and reported to decision makers.

Figure 4-4 Seismic event classification data flow
4.1.2.2 Organization classification and matching
Organization classification is an assessment of the emergency response organizations ability
to help protect people and property. The aim of this classification is to better understand the
protection and problem solving ability of each organization with the emergency response
resource. Once an earthquake occurs, the command headquarter can quickly judge the level of
the earthquake and then send the corresponding level organization to participate in the relief.
(1) Organization classification and matching working process
The general logic of organization classification is almost the same as seismic event
classification. The classification factors are the major difference, which in this case are more
concerned with labor force, rescue equipment, transportation, technical level and
administrative ability. Therefore the classification working process will not discussed in detail,
according to the aim of organization classification, the organization matching working
process can be illustrated as in figure 4-5.
41

The goal of organization classification is to determine the most suitable organization to
executing a given part of an emergency plan; therefore how to match the organization with the
earthquake and emergency plans needs to be analyzed. According to the analysis above, the
working process should be: firstly, according to the seismic event classification information,
determine an emergency plan; based on the given plan, the organization capacities needed are
identified; then compare the determined organization capacity with the organization
classification information to find the most suitable organization for the tasks.

Figure 4-5 Organization matching working process
(2) Organization classification and matching data flow
Followed by the working process, organization classification and matching data flow is shown
in figure 4-6. On the basis of the organization information and the classification index system
database (D2.4), organization classification would be done automatically in the DSS. Later,
combing the classification result with the Plan selection result (D3.6) - discussed in 4.1.3.2,
which determined by the Seismic event classification result (D2.3), the matching result
would be generated and submitted to decision makers through DSS.

Figure 4-6 Organization classification and matching data flow
42

4.1.3 Emergency plan management
Emergency plan management refers to a whole working process that analyzes monitoring
information, predicts the development trend of earthquake and makes corresponding plans.
Once the earthquake happens, action should be taken according to these emergency plans.
Then based on the terms of the specific situation, emergency plans need to be adjusted to
minimize the possible loss. According to Wu & Liu (2003a), three functions which are
related to DSS in emergency plan management, will be discussed in detail here. These are
emergency plan assessment, emergency plan selection and emergency plan dynamic
adjustment.
4.1.3.1 Emergency plan assessment
Emergency plan assessment is the evaluation of existing emergency plans rationality and
operability. Its goal is to find potential problems and improve the quality of emergency plans.
(1) Emergency plan assessment working process
Based on J iang (2006), an evaluation module and a computer simulation module need to be
integrated in emergency plan assessment process. The working process is shown in Figure 4-7
below.

Figure 4-7 Emergency plan assessment working process
There are two ways to assess the emergency plans: one is evaluation, the other is computer
simulation. With the same working logic as classification, the evaluation is realized in DSS by
using evaluation methods to compare the input emergency plans with the evaluation index and
then get the evaluation result automatically. Meanwhile, the computer simulation module can
also be used to simulate the implementation of the emergency plans in the DSS and the help
43

to optimize the emergency plans. According to the results of two assessments, a
comprehensive evaluation and modification takes place. Finally, the evaluation results and
modification suggestion are sent to decision makers.
(2) Emergency plan assessment data flow
According to the working process discussed above, the emergency plan assessment data flow
can be designed as in figure 4-8. On the one hand, after importing the emergency plan
information, the general evaluation module will do some assessment by combining the
emergency plan information with emergency plan evaluation index system (D3.1), and then
the expert evaluation result (D3.2) will be generated. On the other hand, inputting the
emergency plan information will also be utilized to simulate the implementation and produce
a computer simulation result (D3.3). Based on the results from the general evaluation module
and the simulation module, DSS can do a comprehensive evaluation of the emergency plans
and generate an evaluation result and some modification suggestions. Finally, decision makers
can easily get all the emergency plan evaluation results and suggestions from the DSS to help
them make a decision.

Figure 4-8 Emergency plan assessment data flow
4.1.3.2 Emergency plan selection
(1) Emergency plan selection working process
Emergency plan selection is actually a decision, according to the result of seismic event
classification, to choose the most appropriate response plan in the emergency plan base. The
working process of emergency plan selection is made up of a comparison between the results
44

of seismic classification with the use condition and scope of each emergency plan and then a
choice of the most suitable one.
(2) Emergency plan selection data flow
The data flow of the emergency plan selection working process can be constructed as in figure
4-9. Firstly, inputting the seismic event classification result into the emergency plan selection
module, DSS will call for a relevant emergency plan from the emergency plan database
(D3.4). By invoking the proper judgment method (D3.5) and comparing the result of
classification with the use conditions and scope of each emergency plan, an emergency plan
selection result (D3.6) will be produced. Finally the result will be submitted to decision
makers.


Figure 4-9 Emergency plan selection data flow
4.1.3.3 Emergency plan dynamic adjustment
Emergency plan dynamic adjustment is part of the process of emergency plan implementation.
According to the development of earthquake, this stage assesses the effects of implementation
and potential risks and adjusts an emergency plans goals, contents and resource allocation
dynamically.
(1) Emergency plan dynamic adjustment working process
The emergency plan dynamic adjustment working process is expressed in the figure 4-10.
Based on early warning information and classification of the seismic event, the proper
emergency plan would be selected from the plan database. The selected emergency plan is
considered as the initial emergency plan. This process should be repeated periodically to
achieve dynamic adjustment. For instance, after a certain time, the implementation of
emergency plan needs to be assessed according to the update monitoring information. If the
45

original emergency plan is effective, it could continue to be followed; otherwise, DSS should
work into the next step, and according to the development trend of the earthquake, choose a
new emergency plans to deal with earthquake. In the dynamic adjustment process, DSS needs
to keep making assessment periodically and adjusting the emergency plans until the effects of
the earthquake fade away (J ie, Lei, & Hong, 2005).

Figure 4-10 Emergency plan dynamic adjustment working process
(2) Emergency plan dynamic adjustment data flow
The emergency plan dynamic adjustment data flow is illustrated in the figure below. First,
DSS takes the plan selection result (D3.6) as an initial emergency plan. Then periodic
assessment of the emergency plan implementation is carried out. By comparing Expected
emergency plan implementation result (D3.7) with monitoring information of the actual
earthquake situation, DSS can tell whether the emergency plan is well executed or needs to be
adapted. The emergency plan implementation effect report
24
(3.8) is produced in this process
as well. If the emergency plan is not well executed, then DSS goes to the emergency plan
dynamic adjustment module. By calling up the adjusting model (D3.9), the emergency plan
can be adjusted and an emergency plan adjustment report (3.10) generated, which will be sent
to decision makers to and help them guide the emergency relief process.

24
This report may include the information on whether the emergency plan is well executed, what is the result of
carrying out the emergency plan (such as, how many people are rescued), the potential problems on
implementation.
46


Figure 4-11 Emergency plan dynamic adjustment data flow
4.1.4 Resource management
As is explained in the previous chapter, resource management is the essential component of
emergency plan, and resource management function should be under plan management
function, the reasons why resource management is studied as a separate part here are, firstly,
there is no such resource management countermeasures in the existing Pengzhou emergency
plan (need to study in detail); secondly, during our interviews, eight informants mentioned
that resource distribution and resource scheduling are important decisions that they should
make. As resource management is such important, it is necessary to discuss it separately.
Due to the information shortage, decision makers always feel difficult to make decisions on
resource management. Therefore, using DSS to assist decision makers would be helpful. Thus,
these two major issues - resource distribution and resource scheduling - in resource
management need to be discussed in detail. Resource distribution is, according to the right
way, placing the right amount and right types of resources to the right place in advance.
Resource scheduling is a working process organizing a certain amount of resources and
sending them to a specific location in a limited time.
4.1.4.1 Resource distribution
Pengzhou Public Emergency Response Plan (Pengzhou, 2006) illustrates that resources the
government needs to guarantee and distribute are: communication, transportation, medical
treatment, goods and materials, energy (electricity and water), human resource (policemen
and soldiers) and capital fund. In this study, it is better to focus resources on medical
treatment, goods and materials, and human resource firstly; since they are the most important
47

matters that can save or help victims. Once the DSS is well executed, the resources can then
be expanded to the others mentioned in the Pengzhou Public emergency response plan.
According to Qi, Chi, Zhao, & Sun (2006), there are three decision making functions which
are related to resource distribution in emergency management: resource location, resource
coverage and resource allocation.
ReVelle & Eiselt (2005) state that resource location is, given certain demands, an analysis of
how to site facilities in given places and then minimize the distance between demands and
facilities. Four components characterize resource location problems, which are customers
presumed to be already located; facilities will be sited; place where customers and
facilities are located; and a metric showing the distance and time between customers and
facilities. In this research, customers can be considered as the victims, facilities as the
resources needed by the victims and the demands refer to the potential victim needs
under earthquake emergency.
Resource coverage suggests some given standards (mainly concerned with affected people)
that need to be satisfied by the facilities and resource. For instance, if 20,000 people are
affected in an earthquake, the resource should cover those people. Resource allocation is
always related to resource location. According to Rahman & Smith (2000), siting facilities
and assigning resource to these facilities are actions taken simultaneously with the aim of
optimizing the resource utilization.
(1) Resource distribution working process
Based on the literatures and Pengzhou earthquake response plan (Pengzhou, 2007), the
resource distribution working process can be summarized as shown in figure 4-12. Ordinarily,
according to the emergency response mechanism and potential earthquake level, the demand
of resource could be roughly calculated. The general demand of resource is inputted into a
mathematical model (such as, optimization model or linear programming model) to figure out
how to distribute resources. Resource location, coverage and allocation should all be fully
considered in this decision making process. In order to improve the generated resource
distribution scheme, the evaluation on resource distribution effect needs to be executed.
48


Figure 4-12 Resource distribution working process
(2) Resource distribution data flow
The data flow of resource distribution is expressed in figure 4-13. First, inputting location
related information (location of facilities and targeted people) and coverage requirement (how
many people need to be covered) and by invoking the location model
25
(D4.1) and coverage
model
26
(D4.3), the solutions of resource location and resource coverage are made and the
location (D4.2) and coverage lists
27
(D4.4) are generated. Based on the two lists and imported
resource demand information, under the support of mathematical model (D4.5), resource
allocation can be achieved and the resource distribution list
28
(D4.6) can be produced. This
list then assists decision makers in fulfilling demand effectively.

25
The mathematical model to determine the places to put the resources in order to minimize the distance
between victims and resources.
26
The model to figure out the potential resources distribution schemes in order to maximize the coverage of
affected people.
27
The location list includes the information on potential location places; the coverage list contains the
information on all potential covered areas.
28
The resource distribution list is actually the distribution plan. Decision makers can use the list to allocate
resources.
49


Figure 4-13 Resource distribution data flow
4.1.4.2 Resource scheduling
Once resource distribution is well planned and executed, it will help to guarantee the
resources which are needed during the earthquake. However, resource distribution is only a
necessary condition of effective supply. Optimizing resource scheduling is the other important
task to which we should pay attention. When earthquake happens, the efficiency of resource
scheduling is the fundamental guarantee of emergency management. Based on aid resource
demands, the amount of resource and its transport routes need to be determined, and then
adjusted according to the earthquake development trend to optimize the resource scheduling
plan.
(1) Resource scheduling working process
According to Barbarosogcaronlus two-stage stochastic programming model for planning
first-aid commodities transportation in case of an earthquake (Barbarosogcaronlu & Arda,
2004), resource scheduling working process can be illustrated as in figure 4-14. First, the
demand for emergency resources and the situation of resource distribution should be
identified. Then optimization model should be used to determine the resource scheduling
plan. Thirdly, it is necessary to assess the scheduling scheme periodically to make sure that it
is effective. Based on the result of assessment and the earthquake development information,
dynamic adjustment of resource scheduling is conducted.
50


Figure 4-14 Resource scheduling working process
(2) Resource scheduling data flow
According to the working process discussed above, resource scheduling data flow is
expressed in figure 4-15. In the first step, it is necessary to obtain the resource demand
information from the emergency resource demand list
29
(D4.7). Secondly, using the
resource distribution list (D4.6), under the guidance of the resource scheduling model
30

(D4.8), a new resource scheduling scheme
31
(D4.9) would be created. By importing the
earthquake development information into the process of resource dynamic adjustment and
calling for the adjusting model (D3.10), the resource adjustment scheme (D4.10) would
then be generated and eventually this result would feedback to decision makers.

Figure 4-15 Resource scheduling data flow

29
The list illustrates that all the emergency resources which are needed by victims.
30
Mathematical model such as optimization model used to determine the most optimized resource scheduling
scheme.
31
Resource scheduling scheme is actually the instruction on how to schedule the resources.
51

4.1.5 Decision information obtainment
From the construction of the emergency MIS in Beijing, it can be inferred that the existing
system has problems like system segmentation, information islands
32
and inefficient
information acquisition from the terminal (such as monitoring equipments). All of which
seriously hinder the quick obtainment of decision information. In order to obtain decision
information quickly, it is better to extract useful information from a variety of sources and
then integrate them effectively.
(1) Decision information obtainment working process
Based on the interview and Pengzhou public emergency response plan (Pengzhou, 2006), the
decision information obtainment working process can be summarized in three steps: firstly,
obtain useful decision making related information from a wealth of related channels, such as,
professional emergency management IS, monitoring equipments and plan database. Secondly,
integrate such scattered information logically to allow this information to be better managed,
used and shared by decision makers. The final step is to use some technical means such as a
data warehouse
33
to ensure decision makers can get information quickly and accurately.
(2) Decision information obtainment data flow
According to decision information obtainment working process, its data flow can be
expressed as shown in figure 4-16. First, various decision-making information can be
obtained from professional emergency management information systems, monitoring
equipments, emergency plan database (D3.4), and resource distribution list (D4.6). Then
through the information integration module, and with the support of relevant technology, the
useful integrated information can be obtained quickly by decision makers.

32
A body of information (i.e. electronic files) that needs to be shared but has no network connection
33
A repository of an organization's electronically stored data, designed to facilitate reporting and analysis
52


Figure 4-16 Decision information obtainment data flow

4.1.6 Decision making performance evaluation

(1) Decision making performance evaluation working process
According to Pengzhou earthquake response plan (Pengzhou, 2007), the final step is
performance evaluation which will be executed after the whole earthquake, not in the process
of emergency management. Feng & Xu (1999) presented an integrated system in which a
knowledge-based decision support system is integrated with a multilayer evaluation index
system. Based on this idea, the working process of decision making performance evaluation is
outlined as shown in figure 4-17 and the specific evaluation steps are as follows.
During the performance evaluation process, we need to input some basic information about
the result of decision making performance in the phases of emergency management and
reconstruction, such as how many people are rescued and whether people are satisfied with
the resource allocation or their resettlement. Next, DSS will operate immediately by
comparing this information with the internally installed evaluation index system, and then the
evaluation result will be produced.
53


Figure 4-17 Decision making performance evaluation working process

(2) Decision making performance evaluation data flow
Decision making performance evaluation data flow is illustrated in figure 4-18. Firstly, from
D6.1 DSS can get the basic information of decision making performance immediately.
Calling upon the decision making evaluation index system database (D6.2), DSS will
combine the two information sources utilizing its installed model base and automatically
perform the analysis and assessment automatically. Finally, the evaluation results will be
generated and reported to decision makers.

Figure 4-19 Decision making performance evaluation data flow

4.2 General architecture of DSS
The framework of the earthquake emergency management DSS in our research is designed to
be a four-layer structure, which is shown in Figure 4-20. The reason it was designed like this
is rooted mainly in relevant literature. First, the rationale of this architecture is based on the
generic DSS architecture designed by Burstein & Holsapple (2008), which we discussed in
54

detail in chapter 2.2.3. Furthermore, other relevant research was also utilized in formulating
the structure, such as: Chen & Yasuhiko (2000) who introduced a DSS development method -
Layer Model Method. In their study, a DSS contained four layers for business decision
making. Wang (2005) designed a five-layer emergency management information system.
Both of these groups discussed the core content and relationship of each layer as well. Mao &
Zhu (2007) built an architecture of DSS for emergency planning and also discussed its
hierarchical structure.
Previous analysis of the decision support needs in Pengzhou and the DSS function analysis
were also considered in the process of framework design, especially for the basic information
layer and decision application platform.
Generally speaking, this architecture is a compound DSS framework, which is a single DSS
and combines more than one knowledge management techniques, such as text, database, or
rule management to support decision makers. To be specific, there is one use interface for
decision makers to learn, and they can realize different decision making requests through
multiple knowledge management techniques.
The bottom layer is the hardware support layer, which consists of information acquisition
equipment and communication equipment. The upper layer is the basic information layer,
which includes basic information, business information, and comprehensive information. The
third layer is problem process layer, which contains two parts: the decision support platform
and decision application platform. The decision support platform tries to recognize and solve
problems, and the decision application platform is used to achieve all the functions of DSS,
such as early warning analysis, resource distribution, and emergency plan selection. The top
layer is the user interface layer, which can be designed according to different users. We will
analyze each layer in detail in the following sections.

55


Figure 4-20 Architecture of DSS
56

4.2.1 Hardware support layer
Chen & Xu (2001) state that the physical layer is the platform for information transportation,
and is the basis of DSS. Combining this idea with our research, the hardware support layer
should be placed in the bottom of the system and includes at least the following three parts:
computer network system, communication system and basic hardware devices.
(1) Computer network system
A computer network is any set of computers or devices connected to each other with the
ability to exchange data (Kizza, 2005, p. 3). The computer network system is the foundation
of information transmission, information sharing and intelligent decision-making. It should
rely on the existing network infrastructure of the government, such as the network of office
automation systems. Utilizing the development of network technology and the interoperability
of the existing local area network (LAN)
34
and new LAN, the government should build a
safe, reliable, advanced, practical and standardized computer network system for DSS.
Based on the study of Liu & Zhang (2007), the content of network infrastructure should
include at least the following two parts:
Emergency department network
Emergency department network is any set of computers or devices connected to each other
with the ability to exchange data in emergency departments. Its construction mainly consists
of three separate parts: a network for public service (devices used in order to exchange data
with the public), a network for non-confidential information transportation (devices used for
earthquake emergency departments to exchange general data), and a network for confidential
transportation (devices are set up to transport the confidential data). This network is mainly
designed for the transportation of basic information among different emergency departments.
Emergency command network
An emergency command network is a group of connected computers or devices with the
ability to exchange data in the emergency command center. This network is the base for
decision makers to obtain or transfer information and to get the decisions made by DSS
automatically. This network is mainly designed for decision makers.
Communication system

34
A computer network covering a small physical area, like a home, office, or small groups of buildings, such as
a school, or an airport.
57

Based on the definition of Schwartz, Bennett, & Stein (1995), a communication system is a
collection of individual communication networks, transmission systems, and data terminal
equipment by which users can exchange information. It usually is capable of interconnection
and interoperation which forms an integrated whole. The application of many decision
making functions depends on the relevant data and signals extracted from the terminals, and
then transmitted them in the DSS.
(2) Other hardware devices
Other hardware devices are the rest of the hardware equipments not used in the computer
network system or the communication system, which needs to be configured into the DSS.
These could include monitoring equipments, servers, transmission equipment, on-site
monitoring devices and on-site rescue command vehicles.
4.2.2 Basic information layer
DSS must obtain the comprehensive emergency information quickly and accurately. The
basic information layer is designed to provide all the information needed by the decision
support platform, such as, seismic events information, emergency response organization
information, resource relevant information, environmental and geographic information, expert
information and emergency plan information.
Based on the general architecture of Burstein & Holsapple (2008), this layer mainly refers to
Knowledge System (KS) we discussed in chapter two. According to Mao & Zhu (2007), the
information layer is used to manage and maintain all information about the disaster. However,
they do not clarify the information categories. The more structured the organization of the
information is, the more effective the system will be. By combining the characteristics of
different information, information in this layer is divided into the following three categories:
(1) Basic information
Basic information mainly refers to the public information which would be used in the decision
making process, including the spatial and geographic information database, material reserve
database, population database, building status database and monitoring equipment database
35
.
(2) Business information
Business information mainly refers to the professional information resources which can be
used in the emergency decision making process. Such information can, not only support
decision making, but also provide data support for cross-sectoral applications. Business

35
Explanation of each data base, refer to table 4-1 and table 4-2.
58

information includes incident report database, alarm receipt database, expert database,
forecasting warning database, and decision making evaluation index database.
(3) Comprehensive information
Comprehensive information primarily refers to the information which is generated by
analyzing and integrating various types of basic information and business information. It
mainly includes data warehouse, model base, knowledge base, emergency plan base,
assessment base and statistic base. Data warehouse is a repository of an organization's
electronically stored data, designed to facilitate reporting and analysis (Inmon, 1995).
According to the information needs of decision making function, data warehouse will extract,
integrate and convert relevant data from basic information and business information, and
import it in a uniform format into the data warehouse to meet the informational needs of DSS.
Model base provides various models which can be used to assist emergency decision making,
such as linear programming model, structural equation model, and Bayesian decision model.
It the most unique characteristics of DSS, which is also very important for the fulfillment of
the decision making function (Fan, 2005).
A knowledge base contains a variety of emergency management related expertise knowledge
and accumulated practical experiences in previous decision-making processes. An emergency
plan base is used to store emergency plans according to the standard format, which clearly
presents the conditions, limitations and scopes of each emergency plan. Expert evaluation on
emergency plans and emergency implementation effect is stored in assessment base, which
assists in achieving information assessment management optimization. A statistic base stores
the statistical information by categories. The information will be used in the decision making
process to better scientifically support relevant decision.
4.2.3 Problem process layer
The problem process layer is the core part of DSS, which is used to realize all decision
making requests. It contains two components: a decision support platform and a decision
application platform. The decision support platform is the central part of problem process
layer, and all problems are solved by this platform. Meanwhile, the decision application
platform is designed to classify different decision making needs and then transfer the specific
decision demand to decision support platform. The two platforms will be discussed in the
following sections. Based on the general architecture of Burstein & Holsapple (2008), this
layer mainly refers to Problem Process System (PSS).
59

4.2.3.1 Decision support platform
The decision support platform is between the basic information layer and decision application
platform. According to the specific requirements, the decision support platform provides
various supporting service to help the decision application platform achieve its functions.
Based on our DSS architecture, the decision support platform provides four kinds of service.
(1) Security support service
The main role of security support services is to ensure DSS working safely, stable and
efficiently. Users have their own settled right to access and operate the DSS, according to
different permission levels. For example, the top leader should have the full rights to operate
DSS, both for data inputting and decision making whereas the average worker in an
emergency department would only need the right to input data. Based on the study of the
National Training Standard for Information System Security (Infosec) Professionals
36
, some
main components were identified: identity authentication, permission distribution, access
control, data encryption, digital signature, and system maintenance. Identity authentication is
used to ascertain the identification of people who use the DSS; permission distribution
allocates corresponding permissions to relevant people; access control is the technology that
prevents people without authorization from operating the DSS or some key function of DSS;
data encryption is the process of converting ordinary information into complicated codes to
ensure the safety of certain information; digital signature is a scheme for demonstrating the
authenticity of a digital message or document; system maintenance mainly refers to updates
for the software and hardware of the DSS.
(2) Operation support service
Operation support service, according to the needs of the decision application platform,
provides assistance technology and service to ensure successful decision making. According
to the studies of Liu, Li, & Luo (2006) and Liu & Ren (2009), the operation support service in
the DSS consists of GIS, GPS, RS, and simulation platform.
GIS is the system that captures, stores, analyzes, manages, and presents data that is linked to a
physical location. GPS is a space-based global navigation satellite system that provides
reliable location and time information in any weather, at all times and anywhere. RS is
stand-off collection done using a variety of devices or equipments to gather information on a

36
National Security Telecommunications and Information Systems Security (1994). National Training Standard
for Information Systems Security (Infosec) Professionals, Retrieved online on 6 August, 2010 from
http://www.sis.pitt.edu/~jjoshi/courses/IS2150/Fall09/nstissi_4011.pdf.

60

given object or area. GIS, GPS and RS technologies are important elements for establishing
DSS, which can meet the needs of observation, information processing and analysis. A
simulation platform is used to simulate disasters and measure the corresponding
implementation effect of emergency management in a virtual environment. It can be widely
used to assess emergency plans and resources distribution.
(3) Business support service
Business support service refers to different kinds of services which will be used in the process
of decision making. Based on the research of Mao & Zhu (2007), business support service
should include a data warehouse management system, a model base management system, a
knowledge base management system, an emergency plan base management system, an
assessment base management system, a statistic base management system and an inference
engine.
Data warehouse management system is a sub-system to manage and make data warehouse
work more efficiency. The goal of setting this management system is to achieve a more
effective management of massive amounts of data by Extract Transform and Load (ETL),
37

On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP),
38
data mining
39
and other services (Inmon, 1996).
Model base management system is a sub-system that manages models. It has three main
functions, namely, model storage management, model operation management and model
portfolio management (Gao, 2005). Model storage management is used to express, query and
maintain models; model operation management is used to compile model program, control
model operation, and input data into models; model portfolio management is mainly used to
combine or connect different models.
A knowledge base management system is used to manage a knowledge base, through actions
such as querying, browsing, adding, deleting, modifying, and maintaining the data in
knowledge base. With the development of data mining technology, such a system can dig out
knowledge through a large amount of data in the database. Meanwhile, it can also import new
knowledge obtained from the decision making process into the knowledge base and thus
enrich the knowledge base.

37
ETL is a process in database usage and especially in data warehousing. It involves: extracting data from
outside sources; transforming data to fit operational needs; loading it into the end target (database or data
warehouse).
38
OLAP is an approach to swiftly answer multi-dimensional analytical queries.
39
The process of extracting patterns from data
61

The basic function of an emergency plan base management system is the input, storage and
output of plans. One critical success factor for emergency decision making is whether the
appropriate emergency plan can be activated quickly (Respondent 2). Emergency plans base
management system was established for facilitating the management of various emergency
plans.
An assessment base management system is mainly applied to aggregate various types of
assessment information, such as emergency plan assessment information or decision making
performance assessment information. Based on the aggregated evaluation information, DSS
can optimize decision making on a regular basis, improving the quality of early warning
analysis, emergency plan assessment, classification, and decision making performance
evaluation.
A statistic base management system is used to aggregate statistical information in the statistic
base according to the specific decision making request. The aggregated information is used to
support the relevant decision making process.
An inference engine
40
is one of the most important elements of DSS, which is used to
complete the process of reasoning and then to assist in getting to the final result of decision
making. Inference engines constructs a reasoning chain from the raw information, to the
integrated information, and, after reasoning, to an unknown targeted decision making result.
According to the dynamic information during an earthquake and the basic information in the
database, DSS should use an inference engine to reason, and then develop decision making
proposals.
(4) Problem processing service
A problem processing service is, firstly obtaining information from data warehouse, model
base, knowledge base, emergency plan base, assessment base and statistic base, analyzing the
problem and then designing the solution schemes.
Problem processing services include problem analysis and problem solving systems. A
problem analysis system is used to attain information from relevant databases and then
analyze the decision questions. A problem solving system is used to deal with the analyzed
problems until the solutions are promoted and then send the analyzed results to the decision
application platform.

40
Inference engine is a computer program that tries to derive answers from a knowledge base
62

4.2.3.2 Decision application platform
A decision application platform is a core component of DSS, which is mainly used to support
the implementation of the decision making functions discussed in chapter 3: early warning
analysis, seismic event and organization classification, emergency plan assessment,
emergency plan selection, emergency plan dynamic adjustment, resource distribution,
resources scheduling, decision information obtainment, and decision making performance
evaluation. The reasons why we set this platform are, first, classifying the decision making
requests before processing will enhance the efficiency of decision making results; secondly,
10 decision support functions are characteristic of our earthquake emergency management
DSS. Thus these functions should be listed to distinguish this particular DSS.
A decision application platform is used to connect the decision support platform and the user
interface. When obtaining a decision making request from user interface, the request will be
distributed into the related function. Utilizing relevant information from the database, model
base, knowledge base, emergency plan base, assessment base and statistic base, the request is
processed in the decision support platform, and a decision making result will be produced.
This result will be fed back into the relevant decision application platform, and then sent to
the decision maker automatically.
4.2.4 User interface
User interface, as an integral part of the DSS, is the bond that connects people and the DSS
system. On the one hand, people import information to DSS or submit their decision needs to
the system; on the other hand, the DSS provides solutions or decision support information to
people through the interface. Additional information from people through the interface may
be required to complete some decision tasks. Based on the architecture of Burstein &
Holsapple (2008), our user interface is mainly concerned on the Language System (LS) and
Presentation System (PS).
According to Gao (2005), the main tasks of the user interfaces includes the following:
Control DSS: it allows decision makers to control the system through the interface.
Provide decision makers with various forms of interaction with interface: decision makers
can access DSS through Web page, client-side system, cell phone, PDA and other
channels according to their permission levels.
Input and output: decision makers correctly input data and relevant parameters, and the
DSS should be able to correctly output the operation results to decision makers.
Adaptability: the interface should be able to expand and adapt to changes.
63

4.2.5 The relationship of the core components
The previous five sections have discussed the overall architecture of DSS, and the structure
and function of each layer. However, the general framework of DSS does not explain how
each layer interconnects with others. The following section will discuss how the core
components work together to produce effective decision making solutions.
4.2.5.1 Structure of core components
Figure 4-21 shows the relationship of the core components in the architecture. Data collecting
gathers relevant information from the user interface and transmits the information through the
hardware support layer to basic information layer. All kinds of different data bases in figure
4-21 belong to basic information and business information parts in the basic information
layer.
The data warehouse and data warehouse management system, model base and model base
management system, and the other base and its related management system belong to
comprehensive information in the basic information layer and business support service in
the decision support platform respectively. The inference engine is also part of business
support service in the decision support platform.
The problem processing service belongs to the decision support platform in problem
process layer. Various decision making functions belong to the decision application platform.
Finally, the user interface belongs to the user interface layer.
4.2.5.2 Working principle of the core components
From bottom to up, the working principles of core components in the overall DSS framework
can be summarized as follows:
(1) Data collecting gathers valuable information through the hardware support layer and
then stores the information in various related databases. The data warehouse extracts,
transforms and loads the basic information and business information from relevant
databases and then saves them into the data warehouse according to their topics. At the same
time, data mining can obtain reliable information from large data sets and store it in the
knowledge base further enriching the content of the knowledge base. (Inmon, 1996).
(2) According to the specific requests of decision making, the model base and model base
management system, knowledge base and knowledge base management system, and other
base and its related management system can extract relevant models, emergency plans,
knowledge, statistical information and assessment results from related database. Based on the
64

obtained data, the inference engine can conduct a reasoning process, according to the dynamic
information about the earthquake.

Figure 4-21 Relationship of core components in the architecture
65

(3) Based on the previous step, the problem processing system makes full use of the available
data and the inference engine to analyze and solve decision making problems.
(4) The user interface is used to guide users to interact with the system: first, to define the
decision problem; then to submit the request and relevant system parameters to DSS; after
system operations, the emergency response decision will ultimately be generated and fed back
to the decision makers.
4.3 Key data bases design
4.3.1 Data base design
DSS is a large complex system, involving broad and diverse kinds of data. In order to achieve
system functions effectively and reduce data redundancy, it is better to consider all the
databases that a DSS needs before its construction. Based on the interview with respondent 2
and the data flow analysis in chapter 3, the data bases needed in this DSS have been sorted
out. Here, we are going to discuss the data bases in two parts: existing data bases and needed
data-bases.
(1) Existing data bases in Chengdu
Based on the interview with respondent 2 and the emergency response plan of Chengdu, the
existing data bases in Chengdu were summarized in the table below. They were divided into
three stages: before earthquake, during and after. Because of confidentiality issues, we can
simply list the name and general content of each data-base.
Table 4-1 Existing data bases
41

Num. Name General contents
Pre-earthquake
1
Spatial and
geographic
information database
Geographical information on Chengdu and its
administrative area
2
Materials reserve
database
The distribution, quantity and storage related
information on food, clothes, tents and other relief
supplies; reserve aid manufacturers and their daily
production capacity information.
3 Population database
Population density, composition and other relevant
information, such as, community (settlement)
distribution, floating population distribution, school
population distribution, and foreigner distribution
4 Building status Distribution information on public places, including

41
The existing data bases were checked with respondent 2. As he said, some of the databases were constructed
during or after the 2008 Wen Chuan earthquake, such as data base 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13, 14, 18 and 19. Database
11 is used to record all the public emergency incidents, such as, earthquake, flood, and mud rock flow.
66

database their volume, structure, and other related
information; information on the current buildings
5
Monitoring equipment
database
Distribution and attributes information on kinds of
monitoring instruments, such as, earthquake
measuring instrument, meteorological measurement
instrument.
6
Facilities distribution
database
The distribution information on medical, firemen,
police, and army; and their facilities related
information
7
Communication
facilities distribution
database
Communication facilities distribution information,
such as, communication lines and stations,
emergency communication network
8
Transportation power
database
The distribution, capacity, and other relevant
information of transportation teams
9
Rescue equipments
database
The distribution and quantity information on rescue
equipments, such as, crane, excavators
10
Historical statistic
database
Historical data on previous earthquake, such as,
magnitude, casualties, economic loss
Emergency management
11
Incident report
database
Real-time information on the public incidents,
recording when, where, reason, response measures
and results
12
Alarm receipt
database
Alarms received on earthquake-triggered social
crime during the emergency management, such as
rob, murder and other mass events which may result
in social unrest
13
On-site information
database
Record the on-site earthquake information,
including video, pictures
14
Released information
database
Released earthquake related information to the
public during emergency management
15
Weather monitoring
database
Monitoring information on temperature, wind speed,
wind direction, and rainfall etc.
16
Seismic monitoring
database
Monitoring information on earthquake and geology
17
Traffic monitoring
database
Monitoring information on traffic
Post-earthquake
18
Emergency loss
database
Information on earthquake-triggered losses, such as,
casualties, economic losses to the city
19
Rehabilitation
database
Summary information of rehabilitation information
from government aid, social assistance and
insurance claims

(2) Needed data bases
Mao & Zhu (2007) conducted a specific study on the database design of DSS. Combining his
research and data flow analysis in Chapter 3, the needed databases are summed up in the table
67

below. As many of these databases would be used throughout the emergency management
process, they are not classified into pre-earthquake, during and post-earthquake.
Table 4-2 Needed data bases
Num. Name General contents
1 Expert database
Record relevant information on experts, such as,
name, major field, contact information, and
classical earthquake ermergency management cases
they have solved
2
Forecasting and
warning database
Prediction and warning information on weather,
earthquake, and other related information
3
Emergency plan
assessment database
Emergency plan assessment index system and
historical evaluation data
4
Seismic event
classification index
database
Information on seismic event classification index
system
5
Organization
classification index
database
Information on emergency organization
classification index system
6
Emergency plan
selection database
Historical emergency plan selection information and
the conditions of choosing each plan
7
Emergency plan
adjustment database
Reasons for emergency plan adjustment, and
information on how to adjust plans
8
Resource distribution
database
Relevant information on resource location, coverage
and allocation
9
Resource scheduling
database
Relevant information on the place, quantity and
route of resource scheduling
10
Information resource
integration database
Obtain information from various channels and
integrate them
11
Decision making
evaluation database
Information on decision making evaluation index
system and historical evaluation data
12
Earthquake case
database
Information of earthquake emergency management
cases

Based on these databases, the data warehouse will extract the needed data by using certain
extraction and conversion tools. The data would be stored separately according to different
themes and could be used to better support the decision making process.
4.3.2 Model base design
A very promising aspect of a DSS is its ability to integrate data access and decision models
(Sprague, 1980). Based on the research of Power & Sharda (2005) and Densham (1991), the
model base in our research is designed including a model base and a model base management
system. The model base is a static data-base used to store models in a certain structural form.
The general types of models included in the model base could be, for instance, algebraic
68

models, forecasting models, optimization models, decision analytic models, simulation
models, and differential equation models. The model base management system is used to
manage the model base assisting decision makers in constructing, modifying, and applying
various models.
In order to avoid model repetition and redundancy, the model base is designed to be a shared
resource, and all the models can be reused and invoked by different decision making functions.
In addition, models can be used together (two or more models are combined to solve one
problem) in order to achieve a better solution.
Both because research focuses on the overall design of DSS and also due to time limits, we
cannot go to every detail of the model base design. Here we are trying only to explain the
roles the models play in each category of the decision making function.
(1) Early warning analysis
There are four models needed in the early warning analysis function: a monitor model, a
distinguish model, a diagnose model and a assess model. Firstly, the monitor model is used to
collate and classify earthquake monitoring information and then import the monitoring
information into the monitoring information database. Secondly, the distinguish model is used
to compare monitoring information with the warning evaluation index and distinguish the
hazard-formative factors. Thirdly, the diagnose model is used to diagnose the important risk
factors by comparing them with historical warning data. Finally, the assess model is used to
do a comprehensive evaluation on the potential harm, and produce a warning evaluation
report for decision makers.
(2) Classification
As the working process of seismic event classification is almost the same as organization
classification, the model utilized in the two processes is the same. Thus, we will discuss them
together. Matching is the only model needed in this working process. This model is used to
compare basic information on an earthquake or an organization with the related classification
index system. If the conditions of the earthquake or the organization match the related
classification index, then the classification result will be generated.
(3)Emergency plan management
Emergency plan assessment
69

According to the working process of emergency plan assessment, three types of models are
needed in emergency plan assessment: matching models, simulation models and decision
analytic models. Matching models are applied to compare the emergency plan information
with the emergency plan evaluation index, and generate evaluation result. Simulation models
are used to simulate implementation and generate a simulation result. Decision analytic
models include various analysis methods, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
42
,
decision matrix
43
and decision tree
44
(Power & Sharda, 2005). In emergency plan assessment,
the decision analytic model is used to do a comprehensive evaluation on emergency plans and
generate an evaluation result.
Emergency plan selection
Similar to classification, emergency plan selection only needs a matching model. It is used to
compare seismic event classification results with the use conditions and scope of each
emergency plan in the emergency plan database and then produce the emergency plan
selection result.
Emergency plan dynamic adjustment
There are two models needed in this decision making function, the decision analytic model
and the adjusting model. The decision analytic model is used to compare the expected
emergency plan implementation result with the actual situation to check whether the
emergency plan is well executed or to adapt to changes. Once the emergency plan needs to be
adjusted, the adjusting model will be activated. It is used to generate emergency plan
adjustment reports according to the changes of the earthquakes effects.
(4) Resource management
Resource distribution
Three types of models are needed in the resource distribution function: a location model, a
coverage model and a mathematical model. A location model is an operation model, which is
used for solving the optimal location selection problem. In the working process of resource
distribution, the location model is used to determine resource location by analyzing location

42
AHP is a structured technique for dealing with complex decisions. It provides a comprehensive and rational
framework for structuring a decision problem, for representing and quantifying its elements, for relating those
elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative solutions.
43
A decision matrix is an arrangement of qualitative or quantitative values in rows and columns that allow an
analyst to systematically identify, analyze, and rate the strength of relationships between sets of information.
44
A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible
consequences.
70

related information and sending the result to the location list. A coverage model is used to
determine resource coverage under the conditions of the coverage requirement. Mathematical
modeling, such as an optimization model or a linear programming model, is used to achieve
the resource allocation given the resource location and resource coverage conditions.
Resource scheduling
A resource scheduling model and an adjusting model will be applied in this decision making
function. A resource scheduling model is used to analyze resource distribution information
and resource demand information and then generate the resource scheduling scheme. A adjust
model is used to adjust the resource scheduling scheme, by analyzing the earthquake
development information and then generating a resource adjustment scheme.
(5) Decision information obtainment
Decision information obtainment is mainly concerned with the data warehouse, data mining
and some other technical means for attaining information; therefore, no model is related to
this function.
(6) Decision making performance evaluation
A matching model is needed in the decision making performance evaluation, which is used to
compare decision making performance information and a decision making evaluation index,
and then generate evaluation results.
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Chapter 5 Implementation
5.1 Potential problem
Because there is no such DSS in Pengzhou, even in Chengdu, our interviewees cannot provide
much useful information on DSS implementation. The analysis of implementation is based on
both interview and literature review of information system implementation.
5.1.1 From interviews
(1) There are no standards or rules on classification and evaluation. According to the
interviews, at least three index systems should be fixed before DSS construction:
Earthquake classification index system. The establishment of earthquake classification
index system is a foundation for achieving the classification function of DSS. According
to the Pengzhou earthquake emergency plan, there are some grading standards, but these
standards are just general descriptions, which need to be fleshed out in further detail.
Besides, the existing classification system is more like an ex-post evaluation: its
judgment is based solely on the impact and severity of disasters. Therefore, a better
earthquake classification index system (used in the whole process of earthquake
management) should be built.
Organization classification index system. An organization classification index system is
primarily concerned with the organizations comprehensive support capabilities. We do
not have any organization classification index now. When the earthquake happens, I
always discuss with my colleagues firstly, and then make the decision according to my
knowledge on each organizations capability (respondent 1). If there is no such index
system, DSS cannot classify organizations automatically. Therefore, a well-built
organization classification index system is also a necessary foundation for DSS
construction.
Decision making evaluation index system. With the same logic of previous index systems,
establishing a decision making assessment index system is the basis for the function of
decision making performance.
(2) Leaders awareness about DSS is inadequate. During the fourteen interviews, only
respondent 1, 2 and 3 had some general ideas about DSS. Most of the other respondents had
never even heard about the concept of DSS.
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(3) Most of the respondents held a negative attitude toward the implementation of DSS. We
do know this is an advanced technology, and it can help us a lot, but Pengzhou is just a county
level government, the IT level and financial budget cannot afford to do this (respondent 3).
Almost every interviewee holds the same perspective as respondent 3 on the implementation
of DSS.
(4) Low dedication of resources. Respondent 1 said, Although the current infrastructure
(computer, internet access) is much better than 3 years ago, it is still not well developed in the
town level there is only one computer in Bailu town.
(5) Low computer literacy. Because the education level of the town level government officers
is not that high, most of them cannot operate computer properly. In addition, some elder
people (above 50) in the Pengzhou government office cannot use computer either, and
sometimes they even refuse to learn (respondent 1).
(6) Complex and inefficient decision making process. As mentioned in chapter 3.1.3, there are
conflicts between working procedure and working philosophy among different emergency
response groups which makes the emergency decision making process inefficient. While the
characteristics of an earthquake like, ad-hoc nature, destructiveness and uncertainty will bring
huge pressure to decision makers. These decision makers must make quick decisions in order
to minimize the damage. Therefore, building a simple and efficient decision making process
and embedding it in the DSS has a very great significance.
5.1.2 From literature
Since the literatures on DSS implementation is relative scarce, and DSS is an information
system, a review of relevant literatures on information system (especially, Enterprise
Resource Planning system) implementation also suggests some potential problems with the
implementation of DSS:
(1) Lack of top management support, data accuracy, and user involvement are potential
problems that lead to information system implementation failures (Sum, Ang, & Yeo, 1997).
(2) Education, training and understanding of cross-functional working processes are often
reported as other important factors in information system implementation (Markus, Axline,
Petrie, & Tanis, 2000).
(3) Working process changes during the implementation of a DSS system are needed
(Al-Mashari & Zairi, 2000).
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(4) Zhang, Lee, Zhang, & Banerjee (2003) claim that lack of top management support, lack of
discipline, resistance, and lack of broad-based inter-organizational commitment are the major
factors that slow down the process of information system implementation.
(5) When adopting an information system, there is a need to recognize the unique local
government context in which the system will be embedded (Moosbruker & Loftin, 1998).
(6) Maintaining the software and hardware sustainably has a positive impact on information
system implementation success (Zhang, et al., 2003).
5.2 Suggestion on implementation
Based on the potential problems analysis, suggestions on implementation are classified into
three categories: organizational environments, including top management support, working
process setting, government-wide commitment, index systems setting, financial resources and
effective project management; people characteristics, including user involvement and
education & training; technical supports, including data accuracy and construction of
hardware and software. We will discuss each of them in detail below:
5.2.1 Organizational environments
(1) Leader support
Much research has emphasized that leader support is a necessary component in information
system implementation (Burns & Turnipseed, 1991; Duchessi, Schaninger, & Hobbs, 1989).
Since earthquake emergency management DSS is an inter-organizational information system,
its design, implementation, and operation require the cooperation of all people from all
segments of the government. Leader support can help in solving disputes and clarifying
doubts.
Leaders should create an environment for implementing a DSS system. Their support in DSS
implementation can be divided into two main facets: first, providing leadership, and, secondly,
giving necessary resources. To implement an information system smoothly and successfully,
leaders are required to participate in DSS construction meetings, monitor the implementation
efforts, and provide clear directions for the project. Willingness to provide the necessary
resources is another indicator of top management commitment to DSS implementation. The
implementation could be blocked if some of the critical resources (e.g., people, funds and
equipment) are not provided.
(2) Financial resources
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From the interviews, we can see that financial budget is the most serious problem facing the
leaders in the Pengzhou government. Here, we would suggest that the financial resources
should not only come from government budget, but also from other channels, such as,
government bonds, savings from other projects or funds from NGOs or the central
government.
(3) Working process setting
In order to avoid working conflicts between different departments, a simple and efficient
working process should be settled upon before constructing a DSS. Under the working
process analysis in chapter three, we construct an overall earthquake decision making working
process including the following four stages:
Information collection and processing
Based on the contents of Decision information obtainment in chapter 3.3.5, earthquake
related information can be collected comprehensively, and the development trend of the
earthquake could also be estimated correctly. These are the foundational elements for the next
steps.
Problem and goal identification
Identifying the problem requirees a comprehensive analysis of the status, properties,
development trend and relief conditions of the earthquake related problems. After
indentifying the problems, targeted goals would then be created.
Emergency plan selection
Emergency plans can come directly from the emergency plan base or can be formulized by
adapting and adjusting some existing emergency plans. This phase is, under the help of DSS,
a comprehensive evaluation of the emergency plans from which a solution for dealing with
the earthquke will be chosen according to the seismic event classification and organization
classification.
Emergency plan implementation
The previous three stages are carried out within the DSS. However this step should be
achieved by people from different departments. Once the decision is formed, the necessary
human, material and financial resources should be assembled, reasonably and effectively
allocated, and the emergency plan should be carried out effectively. In addition, during the
75

process of implementation, information feedback and inspection must be strengthened, which
would help improve the decision-making plan throughout implementation.
(4) Government-wide commitment
Since DSS is a government-wide information system that integrates information within and
across all- administrative organizations, it is necessary to get support from all segments of the
earthquake command center. Every person or organization is partially responsible for the
overall system, and key users from different administrative organizations must commit to
DSS implementation.
Government-wide support should involve two aspects: first, leaders of each administrative
organization should support the construction of the DSS; Secondly, as worker within each
organization grow to understand the benefits of the system for their work, they will be willing
to support the DSS.
(5) Index systems setting
As was discussed in the potential problems, the seismic event classification index,
organization index and decision making evaluation index should be set before the
construction of DSS. Once they are established, they need to be imported into the DSS
databases, and then they can help achieve the DSS functions on classification and evaluation.
(6) Effective project management
DSS implementation is a set of complex activities, involving all different departments and
often requiring between one and two years of effort (Kivij rvi & Zmud, 1993). Thus, the
government could consider DSS construction as a project and use effective project
management methods to control the implementation process (Zhang, et al., 2003), which
would help avoiding budgetary overrun and ensuring implementation within schedule.
According to Sum, C., Ang, J ., & Yeo, L. (1997), five major issues decision makers should
take into consideration during the process of DSS construction are: firstly, a formal
implementation emergency plan; secondly, a realistic time frame, thirdly, periodic project
status meetings, fourth, an effective project leader, and finally, quality and cost control. A
formal project implementation plan lists DSS construction activities and commits personnel to
those activities. It is important to have a realistic time frame. If the target schedule was too
short, the pressure to rush through would result in the implementation being carried out in a
haphazard manner. On the other hand, if the implementation is delayed for too long, people
76

may lose patience, which would result in low morale and resistance. Conducting periodic
project status meetings where project members report progress and problems is an invaluable
means for evaluating the progress of DSS implementation. At the same time, project leaders
must pay attention to the quality and cost of the DSS construction project. Selecting the right
project leader is also important for the project implementation success.
5.2.2 People characteristics
(1) User involvement
User involvement refers to the participation of DSS users in the system development and
implementation processes. The DSS system is designed to facilitate decision makers jobs.
Without their participation, the system cannot be designed to satisfy their needs. According to
Zhang, Lee, Zhang, & Banerjee (2003), the following two areas need user involvement: firstly,
definition (demand analysis) in DSS requires user involvement; and secondly, user
participation is needed in the implementation process of DSS. Involving users in the stage of
defining DSS needs can decrease their resistance to the potential system.
(2) Education & training
Based on the definition of Sum, C., Ang, J ., & Yeo, L. (1997), education and training in this
context refers to the process of providing users with the logic and overall concepts of DSS
system and system operation. Thus, people can increase their awareness about using DSS and
have a better understanding of how their decisions are made and to what extent the DSS
system can help them.
The main reason for education and training is to increase the consciousness of people who
will use DSS as well as their expertise or knowledge level. Three important aspects of the
training contents are: 1) logic and concepts of DSS; 2) features of the DSS (how to benefit
users); and 3) operation training. Concept and features of DSS training show users why the
DSS system is implemented, how the decisions are made and to what extent this system can
help decision makers. Operation training helps those decision makers who are computer
illiterate to operate the system.
5.2.3 Technical supports
(1) Data accuracy
Since the databases in DSS are intricately linked to one another, it is important to make sure
the input data is accurate. Otherwise, inaccurate data input into one database will adversely
affect the functioning of the others. This would result in the final decision which decision
77

makers get from DSS being unhelpful or even misleading. This would reduce the incentive to
use the DSS system. Thus data accuracy is a major determinant of DSS system success
(Markus, et al., 2000).
(2) Construction and interoperability of software and hardware
DSS vendors may use different hardware/software platforms, databases, and operation
systems which are not compatible with upper-level governments databases and operation
systems. In order to consider the future use of the DSS (communicate with upper lever
government DSS), a hardware/software requirements analysis should be conducted first to
explore potential hardware/software problems. The hardware/software then is selected
according to the specific DSS requirements.
As time goes by and environment changes, the DSS may not as fully meet the decision
makers needs, especially when the government organization or the resource locations has
some changes. Thus, to increase the chance of success, the hardware/software should be
updated periodically in order to closely fit with decision makers requirements.

78

Chapter 6 Conclusions
6.1 Summary
To investigate the architecture of an earthquake emergency management DSS in China local
government, this paper introduced research background, research questions, research
objective, research significance and research methods. Then relevant theoretical literature
about emergency management and DSS were reviewed. After the literature review,
documents analysis and interviews, this paper began to discuss the decision making functions
of Beijings current emergency MIS and the deficiencies of current emergency management
DSS in China. Combining the actual situation of Pengzhou with insights from this literature,
decision support needs, objectives, and functions of DSS were defined and summarized ten
functions were grouped into six categories. According to the six categories, the working
process and data flow of each function were analyzed. After that, the overall framework of the
DSS was designed and its components were analyzed. A four-layer general framework of
DSS was established, and each layer was discussed in detail as were the interaction between
different layers. Finally, the potential problems and possible solutions during the DSS
implementation were briefly introduced.
To be specific, the main conclusions of this paper include the following:
(1) Through the interview and document analysis, a general idea about current situation of the
DSS application in China was got. As the level of earthquake emergency management DSS in
China is low, there are various opportunities for people to work on this field and develop such
emergency management DSS to help deal with not only earthquake but also other nature
disasters.
(2) The decision support needs of DSS in Pengzhou were defined in chapter 3.2.1. The
decision support needs were divided into three stages, which were the foundation of the DSS
goal analysis and function analysis.
(3) In chapter 3.2.3, 10 major functions of DSS were looked and summarized into six
categories. While some decision support functions can be automatized, not every relevant
function can be turned into a computer system and the personal judgment of decision makers
remains crucial in these areas.
(4) Combining the research on emergency management and decision support systems, in
chapter 4, the working process and data flow of each function were analyzed, and then the
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four-layer framework architecture of the DSS was designed. The contents of each layer and
the relationships between different layers were analyzed. While the DSS architecture was
built, as we mentioned before DSS can only help decision makers, and it cannot replace
people, therefore decision makers judgment was needed as well.
(5) Contents needed in various databases were summarized and the roles models play in each
specific function were discussed. These databases and models were some basic components of
the DSS, and should to be update according to the change of decision support needs.
(6) Potential problems and solutions during the implementation process of the DSS were also
addressed. Potential problems analysis is the precautionary measure for Pengzhou government,
in case they can deal with some general problems during the DSS construction process. As
new problems always occur during the process of implementation, it is necessary to prepare
well the handle these new problems and then record them to help future DSS promotion
across China.
6.2 Limitations of study
This study has answered the research questions and achieved the research purposes. However,
the study has some limitations that should be noted, such as:
(1) Due to limited government documentation, the current analysis of the DSS in China is not
sufficient, and must rely heavily on the study of the Beijing MIS.
(2) The decision support need is mainly determined through the telephone interviews, which
may not sufficient. If it is possible, face to face interviews and some field research (such as
observe how decision makers make decisions during the earthquake, their working process
and what kind of difficult they are facing when making decisions) are necessary as well.
(3) The working process and data flow analysis of each decision-making function should be
extended in further research.
(4) Some parts, such as the model base design, cannot be analyzed in too great of detail, and
this analysis could benefit from consultation with an expert or further literature in this area.
(5) Because there is no such DSS in Chinese local government, the summary of DSS
implementation problems is not enough and needs to be updated during the process of DSS
construction.
(6) It is difficult to realize this ideal DSS. On one hand, the IT level and peoples
consciousness of DSS in local government is too low; on the other, China is a top-down
80

government, and local government has no financial budget to do this kind of project without
the support of the central government.
6.3 Policy Recommendations
It is possible to draw some policy recommendations based on this research. However, as
discussed above, the policy recommendations may be insufficient due to the constraints of
knowledge about potential problems. Thus, they need to be amended according to problems
that emerge during construction. However, some general recommendations are summarized
below:
(1) From the view of organizational environments
Firstly, DSS construction needs to be supported by leaders as they can create a good
implementation environment by providing leadership and giving necessary resources.
Secondly, leaders can consider multiple-channels to raise money for DSS construction, such
as government bonds, savings from other projects and earmarked funding from NGOs or the
central government. Thirdly, the working process of earthquake emergency management
should be settled upon before construction. Fourth, it is necessary and important to get
government-wide commitment, which means all the segment of the earthquake command
center should support the DSS construction. Fifth, the seismic event classification index,
organization classification index and decision making evaluation index need to be set before
the construction of DSS. Finally, leaders should apply effective project management methods
to manage DSS construction process. Five major issues decision makers should take into
consideration are a formal implementation plan, a realistic time frame, periodic project status
meetings, an effective project leader, and quality and cost control.
(2) From the view of people characteristics
Firstly, DSS users should participate in the development and implementation processes of
DSS construction especially in the stages of identifying DSS definition (demand analysis)
needs. Secondly, education and training are necessary. The aim of this education is to increase
peoples consciousness about using DSS and offer them a better understanding of how their
decision making process functions and to what extent the DSS system can help them. The
training contents should at least include: logic and concepts of DSS, features of the DSS
(How to benefit users), and operation training.
(3) From the view of technical supports
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Firstly, all input data must be accurate. Since the databases in DSS are linked to one another,
inaccurate data will result in wrong decisions and mislead decision makers. Secondly, the
hardware and software must be compatible with the upper level governments in order to
further the use of DSS. The hardware/software must be updated according to the time and
environment changes so that the DSS can continue to closely fit the needs of decision makers.
6.4 Further research
During the process of this study, I deeply felt that the research on DSS architecture design is a
multidisciplinary topic that bore significance bother practically and theoretically. It is worth
continuing and extending this research. Specifically, I believe that the following would be the
entry points for the further research:
(1) Improving the functions of the DSS, as the current function analysis is only based on the
interviews of 14 informants which may be sufficient to fulfill the decision needs during the
DSS;
(2) As time was limited, the working process and data flow of each function are not discussed
in depth and could be further elaborated;
(3) Because the classification index system, evaluation index system and working process
need to be fixed before DSS construction, an in-depth study on them is necessary;
(4) Further research on the data base and model base design focusing on its components,
structure, and realization would be useful.
(5) Research on the linkage, interaction and integration of each layer/subsystem can help to
advance this DSS as well.
(6) Last but not the least, the programming required to realize this system is also an important
research issue.
82

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Annex 1: Research Consent Form
45


STUDY TITLE: Research on the Decision Support System (DSS) of Earthquake
Emergency Management - Based on Wen Chuan Earthquake in China
PURPOSE: The purpose of the study is to design an architecture of DSS for
emergency management to help decision makers in local government and give some
suggestion on how to implement the system.
PROCEDURES: You will be asked with some open-ended questions during an
around one hour telephone interview.
COST, RISK, AND DISCOMFORT: There are no costs, risks or discomfort
associated with this interview.
BENEFITS TO YOU: The final result of the study will be presented back to relevant
key informants for further discussions and improvement. It can also be used as the
relevant document for the future information system construction of Pengzhou
government.
CONFIDENTIALITY: Only my supervisor and some relevant professors can get
access of these answers. The result will be used only for writing a master thesis at
Maastricht University, the Netherlands. If this study will be publishes in a scholarly
journal or your comments will to be used as quotes, I will get your written permission.
Otherwise, your name and other identifiers will not be used in any publication.
REQUEST FOR MORE INFORMATION: You may ask more questions about the
study at any time. Please e-mail abcivyduan@gmail.com with any questions or
concerns about this study.
WITHDRAWAL OF PARTICIPATION: Should you decide at any time during the
study that you no longer wish to participate, you may withdraw your consent without
prejudice.
SIGNATURE: I confirm that the purpose of this research, the study procedures, the
possible risks and discomforts as well as benefits have been explained to me. All my
questions have been answered. I have read this consent form. My signature below
indicates my willingness to participate in this study.

Signature: Date:

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This is a translated version; in practice the Chinese version was used.
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Annex 2: Interview question guide
46

Name: .................................................... Telephone: ......................................
Date of Interview: ...................................... Email: .............................................

Command and control tasks
1. What are your tasks/responsibilities in earthquake emergency management?
2. What kind of decisions you made in case of the earthquake?
3. What difficulties you faced when making decision?
4. How might making these decisions be eased?
5. What were your previous experiences with IT in emergency management or
decision making?
Information Sources
1. What were the relevant information sources/data that you had to use to make
decisions in the Wen Chuan earthquake emergency management (or in other
emergency management case)
2. How is the information transferred/processed among different decision
makers?
3. What kind of shortcomings did you experience with the available information
and its processing?
4. What are the possibilities for the improvement of information
sources/channels?
5. What are your routines for documentation of earthquake emergency
management? (Hint: by hand writing paper or by computer recording)
Demand
1. How do you think that computer systems could assist your decision-making in
earthquake emergency management?
Implementation
1. Have you used another information system? Did you and your staff meet some
difficulties while using that system? Was the problem solved? How did you solve the
problem?

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The question guide merely serves as the outline of interview. It is important to conduct the interview
more flexibly- interviewer can probe more relevant questions according to the informants response,
in order to get as much as information as possible.

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2. How do you think the idea of constructing a DSS to help you make decision? ( Hint:
to test whether they like it or not, and the possibility of construction)
3. If there is a DSS, what are the potential difficulties for you and your staff to
implement (construct, build, install) this system?
4. If there is a DSS, what are the potential difficulties for you and your staff to use this
system?
5. What do you think can facilitate the implementation of DSS?
Other comments and suggestions


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Annex 3: List of interviewees

Respondent ID Organization Type Function
1 Party Secretary Commander
2 Chief Disciplinary Officer of Chengdu Inspection leader
3 Mayor Vice-commander
4 Relief supply group Leader
5 Victims temporary resettlement group Vice-leader
6 Victims long-term resettlement group Leader
7 Medical treatment and anti-epidemic group Leader
8 Energy and transportation group Leader
9 Public relations group Vice-leader
10 Psychological counseling group Vice-leader
11 Rescue forces coordination group Leader
12 Inspection group Vice-leader
13 Statistics group Leader
14 Secretary group Leader