ALASKA PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH SURVEY

October 15th to 21st, 2014

Sample size = 403; margin of error + 4.88%
INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
This report presents an analysis of a survey of Alaskan statewide likely 2014 General Election voters. The survey
measured properties of Alaskan voters' demographics, behaviors and attitudes. Research typically involves
estimating the characteristics of a designated population. Because of the costs of conducting a census of all items
in a population and the adequacy of sample results, sample statistics were used to make statistical inferences
concerning population parameters.
Four hundred and three (403) Alaskan likely voters were interviewed between October 15th and 21st, 2014.
Interviewing was conducted by telephone on a random digit basis. That is, computerized random numbers were
generated for the last two digits of the suffix of each workable telephone prefix in Alaska. All Alaskan voters who
are accessible by telephone had an equal chance of being interviewed.
Of the 403 interviews, 318 (79.0%) were conducted on cellular phones and 85 (21.0%) on land-lines. All land-line
and cellular telephone households were called at least five times: during the evening (5:00 to 9:00 pm), day (11:00
am to 5:00 pm), and weekend (12:00 pm to 9:00 pm).
This survey is a true random digit survey fielded in Alaska by Hellenthal & Associates. All other Alaska research
firms contract their fielding work to "outside" firms. They do not actually conduct the research themselves.
Therefore, their results are only as accurate as the "Outside" firm's quality controls. Hellenthal & Associates
develops their own sampling frame and constantly monitors the fielding to insure a high response rate and adequate
random sampling.
The areas of Alaska surveyed for the general population survey were as follows:
THE FOLLOWING VARIABLE IS CALCULATED USING THE TELEPHONE PREFIX
AREAS

UNWEIGHTED
FREQUENCY

WEIGHTED
PERCENT

MARGIN OF
ERROR

Southeast.................49.......12.2%.......+
Kenai.....................34........8.5%.......+
Anchorage................167.......41.3%.......+
Matsu.....................49.......12.1%.......+
Greater Fairbanks.........62.......15.4%.......+
Rural/Bush................42.......10.5%.......+

Page 1

13.4
17.3
7.6
12.0
13.0
12.4

%
%
%
%
%
%

TOTALS...................403......100.0%.......+

4.88%

Margin of error
At a 95% confidence level, the empirical proportions reported in the general population survey can be projected,
within plus or minus 4.88%, to the entire Alaskan likely voter population, aged 18 and over. This means one can
be 95% sure that the frequencies reported in the general population survey are within 4.88% of the true Alaskan
likley voter population proportions.
The questionnaire with results is as follows:
ALASKA PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH SURVEY
October 15th to 21st, 2014
Sample size = 403; margin of error + 4.88%
HELLENTHAL AND ASSOCIATES
2200 Vanderbilt Circle
Anchorage, Alaska 99508
(907) 276-1001 or
277-2315 (fax)
hellenthal@gci.net (e-mail)
Hello, my name is_______________ and I am calling for Alaska Research Company. We are conducting an areawide public opinion research survey. Your telephone number was randomly selected. The questions I need to ask
will take only a few minutes. All of your responses will be completely confidential. (PAUSE AND PROCEED)
S1.
S2.
S3.

Is this telephone number _____________?

(LANDLINE) Am I talking to you at a place where you live? (CELL) Do you live in Alaska?
Are you registered to vote in the State of Alaska?
IF YES, THEN PROCEED TO QUESTION #1
IF NO, THEN ASK...
Is there anyone home who is registered to vote in the State of Alaska?
IF YES THEN ASK...
May I speak with them? (PROCEED TO QUESTION #1 OR TERMINATE AND
NOTE ON TELEPHONE SHEET)
IF NO, THEN ASK...
When will someone be home who is registered to vote? (TERMINATE AND NOTE
ON TELEPHONE SHEET)

1.

Realistically speaking, are you absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely, or not at all likely to vote in
the November 4th Alaska General Election?
LIKELINESS TO VOTE

FREQUENCY

Page 2

PERCENT

2.

Absolutely certain.................285........70.7%
Very likely.........................91........22.5%
Somewhat likely.....................27.........6.8%
I am going to read the names of some public figures. Please tell me whether your opinion of each is very
positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative -- or if you don't know who they are. Is
your opinion of
(FILL IN PUBLIC FIGURES) very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat
negative, or very negative -- or don't you know who he/she is?

FIGURES

4
3
2
VERY
SOMEWHAT
POSITIVE POSITIVE NEUTRAL

1
0
SOMEWHAT
VERY
NEGATIVE NEGATIVE

WHO?

MEAN

Bill Walker.......14.6%....26.0%....32.1%....10.2%.....4.7%...12.5%...2.406
Forrest Dunbar.....7.6%....16.7%....26.5%.....3.5%.....2.5%...43.2%...2.412
Don Young.........19.4%....30.0%....18.0%....14.9%....17.7%....0.0%...2.184
Mark Begich.......23.8%....24.3%....10.7%....18.5%....22.7%....0.0%...2.079
Sean Parnell......17.0%....30.2%....17.1%....15.3%....20.5%....0.0%...2.079
Dan Sullivan......16.8%....26.8%....14.6%....20.4%....21.4%....0.0%...1.973
(ROTATE ORDER)

3.

If the November 4th 2014 General election for Governor of Alaska were held today and the candidates
are.... For whom would you vote for Governor of Alaska?
2014 GUBERNATORIAL

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

GENERAL
PERCENT

Sean Parnell, Republican,..........179........44.3%.....48.5%

Bill Walker, unaffiliated,.........171........42.5%.....46.5%
Carolyn Care, Libertarian, and......15.........3.8%......4.1%
J.R. Myers, Alaska Constitution,.....3.........0.8%......0.9%
Don't know..........................35.........8.6%....MISSING
PARNELL-WALKER STRENGTHS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Strong Parnell...........................64........15.9%
Moderate Parnell.........................67........16.7%
Leaning Parnell..........................47........11.7%
Undecided................................35.........8.6%
Leaning Walker...........................42........10.5%
Moderate Walker..........................27.........6.6%
Strong Walker...........................102........25.3%
Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8%
J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8%

Page 3

PARNELL-WALKER STRENGTHS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Str-Mod Parnell.........................131........32.6%
Leaning Parnell..........................47........11.7%
Undecided................................35.........8.6%
Leaning Walker...........................42........10.5%
Str-Mod Walker..........................129........31.9%
Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8%
J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8%
PARNELL-WALKER TARGET VOTERS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Str-Mod Parnell.........................131........32.6%
Target voters...........................124........30.9%
Str-Mod Walker..........................129........31.9%
Carolyn Care.............................15.........3.8%
J.R. Myers................................3.........0.8%

4.

If the November 4th 2014 General election for U.S. House were held today and the candidates are.... For
whom would you vote for U.S. House?
2014 U.S. CONGRESSIONAL

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

GENERAL
PERCENT

Don Young, Republican,.............209........51.9%.....55.7%

Forrest Dunbar, Democrat, and......142........35.2%.....37.8%
Jim McDermott, Libertarian,.........25.........6.1%......6.5%
Don't know..........................27.........6.8%....MISSING
YOUNG-DUNBAR STRENGTHS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Strong Young.............................70........17.5%
Moderate Young...........................95........23.6%
Leaning Young............................44........10.8%
Undecided................................27.........6.8%
Leaning Dunbar...........................33.........8.3%
Moderate Dunbar..........................29.........7.2%
Strong Dunbar............................80........19.8%
Jim McDermott............................25.........6.1%
YOUNG-DUNBAR STRENGTHS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Str-Mod Young...........................165........41.1%
Leaning Young............................44........10.8%
Undecided................................27.........6.8%

Page 4

Leaning Dunbar...........................33.........8.3%
Str-Mod Dunbar..........................109........27.0%
Jim McDermott............................25.........6.1%
YOUNG-DUNBAR TARGET VOTERS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Str-Mod Young...........................165........41.1%
Target voters...........................104........25.9%
Str-Mod Dunbar..........................109........27.0%
Jim McDermott............................25.........6.1%

5.

If the November 4th 2014 General election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates are.... For
whom would you vote for U.S. Senate?
2014 U.S. SENATE GENERAL

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

GENERAL
PERCENT

Mark Begich, Democrat, and.........196........48.6%.....51.5%

Dan Sullivan, Republican,..........158........39.2%.....41.6%
Mark Fish, Libertarian,.............11.........2.8%......3.0%
Ted Gianoutsos, Non-Affiliated,.....15.........3.7%......4.0%
Don't know..........................23.........5.7%....MISSING
BEGICH-SULLIVAN STRENGTHS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Strong Begich...........................134........33.2%
Moderate Begich..........................29.........7.3%
Leaning Begich...........................32.........8.0%
Undecided................................23.........5.7%
Leaning Sullivan.........................26.........6.6%
Moderate Sullivan........................10.........2.6%
Strong Sullivan.........................121........30.1%
Mark Fish................................11.........2.8%
Ted Gianoutsos...........................15.........3.7%
BEGICH-SULLIVAN STRENGTHS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Str-Mod Begich..........................163........40.5%
Leaning Begich...........................32.........8.0%

Page 5

Undecided................................23.........5.7%
Leaning Sullivan.........................26.........6.6%
Str-Mod Sullivan........................132........32.7%
Mark Fish................................11.........2.8%
Ted Gianoutsos...........................15.........3.7%
BEGICH-SULLIVAN TARGET VOTERS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Str-Mod Begich..........................163........40.5%
Target voters............................82........20.2%
Str-Mod Sullivan........................132........32.7%
Mark Fish................................11.........2.8%
Ted Gianoutsos...........................15.........3.7%

6.

Please tell me if you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose ___________
(FILL IN STATEMENT)?
4

STATEMENTS

2
1
0
DON'T
STRONGLY SOMEWHAT KNOW/ SOMEWHAT STRONGLY
FAVOR
FAVOR
NEUTRAL OPPOSE
OPPOSE

MEAN

Raising Alaska's minimum

wage from $7.75 to
$8.75 in 2015 and
from $8.75 to $9.75
in 2016..............52.3%....16.4%.....4.6%....12.6%....14.1%...2.801
Banning mining such as
Pebble Mine in
Bristol Bay..........31.5%....11.0%....13.4%....14.4%....29.7%...2.265
Legalizing marijuana
in Alaska............29.7%....16.8%....11.3%.....7.2%....35.0%...2.003
Keeping Anchorage's City
Employee Relations
Labor Law AO-37
supported by Mayor

Page 6

Dan Sullivan.........14.8%.....6.5%....56.9%.....5.5%....16.2%...1.981
(ROTATE ORDER)

The last few questions are being collected purely for statistical purposes.

7.

What is your political party affiliation? ("What are you registered as?")
PARTY AFFILIATION

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Republican Party...................133........33.1%
Democratic Party....................71........17.7%
Green Party..........................0.........0.0%
Alaskan Independence Party...........0.........0.0%
Libertarian Party....................5.........1.2%
Veteran Party........................0.........0.0%
No Party Affiliation/Independent...193........48.0%

8.

In state elections, do you usually vote for all Republicans, more Republicans than Democrats, Republicans
and Democrats about equally, more Democrats than Republicans, or to you vote for all Democrats?
PARTY VOTING PREFERENCE

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

All Republicans.............................46........11.5%
More Republicans than Democrats............115........28.5%
Republicans and Democrats about equally....148........36.8%
More Democrats than Republicans.............74........18.5%
All Democrats...............................19.........4.8%
9.

In what year were you born? (COMPUTED TO AGE BY SUBTRACTING FROM 114)
AGE OF RESPONDENT
18
35
50
65

10.

to
to
to
or

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

34...........................107........26.6%
49...........................116........28.8%
64...........................111........27.6%
older.........................68........17.0%
(Median = 47.000 years)
(Mean = 47.319 years)

(IF LANDLINE PHONE, ASK.....) Is your residence accessible by cell phone?

Page 7

CELL PHONE

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Yes................................397........98.6%
No...................................6.........1.4%

11.

(IF CELL PHONE, ASK.....) Do you have a wired land-line at your residence?
WIRED LAND-LINE

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Yes................................249........61.8%
No.................................154........38.2%

(COMPUTE FROM PRECEDING TWO QUESTIONS)

TELEPHONE STATUS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Land-line only at residence..........6.........1.4%

Cell phone only at residence.......150........37.2%
Both cell phone and land-line......247........61.4%

12.

Are you married or single?

MARITAL STATUS

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Married............................232........57.5%
Single.............................171........42.5%

13.

What is the Zip Code where you live?

ZIP CODE

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Downtown 99501.......................11.........2.8%
Sand Lake 99502......................12.........2.9%
North Midtown 99503...................9.........2.2%
Northeast Anchorage 99504............23.........5.7%

Page 8

Ft. Richardson 99505..................0.........0.0%

Elmendorf AFB 99506...................2.........0.5%
Lake Otis 99507......................17.........4.3%
Russian Jack 99508...................18.........4.5%
Huffman P.O. Box 99511................0.........0.0%
Reka Drive 99512......................2.........0.5%
Downtown P.O. Box 99513...............0.........0.0%
Northway P.O. Box 99514...............3.........0.8%
Southwest Anchorage 99515............14.........3.5%
Southeast Anchorage 99516.............8.........1.9%
Turnagain/Spenard 99517...............9.........2.2%
South Midtown 99518...................6.........1.5%
Sandlake P.O. Box 99522...............0.........0.0%
Lake Otis P.O. Box 99523..............0.........0.0%
Downtown P.O Box 99524................0.........0.0%
Port Lions 99550......................0.........0.2%
Akutan 99553..........................1.........0.2%
Anchor Point 99556....................3.........0.6%
Aniak 99557...........................2.........0.5%
Bethel 99559..........................3.........0.8%
Chignik 99564.........................0.........0.0%
Chugiak 99567.........................4.........1.1%
Cooper Landing 99572..................1.........0.3%
Glennallen 99573......................2.........0.5%
Cordova 99574.........................2.........0.4%
Dillingham 99576......................2.........0.5%
Eagle River 99577....................27.........6.6%
Egegik 99579..........................0.........0.0%
Emmonak 99581.........................1.........0.3%
Gakona 99586..........................0.........0.0%
Girdwood 99587........................1.........0.3%
Glennallen/Mendeltna 99588............1.........0.3%
Holy Cross 99602......................0.........0.0%
Homer 99603...........................4.........1.1%
Iliamna 99606.........................0.........0.0%
Kasilof 99610.........................2.........0.5%
Kenai 99611...........................4.........1.1%
King Cove 99612.......................0.........0.0%
King Salmon 99613.....................1.........0.3%
Kodiak 99615..........................5.........1.3%
Kwethluk 99621........................1.........0.2%
Wasilla 99623.........................3.........0.8%
McGrath 99627.........................1.........0.2%
Manokotak 99628.......................1.........0.2%
Meadow Lakes 99629....................0.........0.0%
Mountain Village 99632................1.........0.2%
Kenai 99635...........................1.........0.3%
Ninilchik 99639.......................1.........0.3%
Nondalton 99640.......................0.........0.0%

Page 9

ZIP CODE

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Palmer 99645.........................18.........4.5%
Pedro Bay 99647.......................0.........0.0%
Perryville 99648......................0.........0.0%
Pilot Station 99650...................0.........0.0%
Big Lake 99652........................2.........0.5%
Wasilla 99654........................15.........3.8%
St. Mary's 99658......................1.........0.3%
Sand Point 99661......................1.........0.3%
Seldovia 99663........................1.........0.3%
Seward 99664..........................2.........0.5%
Shageluk 99665........................1.........0.3%
Skwentna 99667........................0.........0.0%
Soldotna 99669.......................11.........2.8%
Stebbins 99671........................0.........0.0%
Sterling 99672........................4.........1.1%
Sutton 99674..........................0.........0.0%
Talkeetna 99676.......................2.........0.5%
Togiak 99678..........................1.........0.2%
Trapper Creek 99683...................2.........0.6%
Unalakleet 99684......................1.........0.2%
Unalaska 99685........................1.........0.2%
Valdez 99686..........................3.........0.8%
Wasilla 99687.........................3.........0.8%
Willow 99688..........................2.........0.4%
Yakutat 99689.........................1.........0.3%
Unalaska 99692........................2.........0.5%
Houston 99694.........................1.........0.2%
Fairbanks 99701......................11.........2.7%
Eielson 99702.........................0.........0.0%
Ft. Wainwright 99703..................0.........0.0%
Clear 99704...........................0.........0.0%
Fairbanks 99705.......................8.........1.9%
Fairbanks 99706.......................0.........0.0%
Fairbanks 99707.......................2.........0.4%
Fairbanks 99708.......................0.........0.0%
Fairbanks 99709......................12.........2.9%
Fairbanks 99710.......................2.........0.6%
Fairbanks 99711.......................0.........0.0%
Fairbanks 99712.......................6.........1.5%
Fairbanks 99713.......................0.........0.0%
Fairbanks 99714.......................2.........0.5%
Fairbanks 99715.......................0.........0.0%
Fairbanks 99716.......................2.........0.6%
Barrow 99723..........................2.........0.5%
Easter 99725..........................0.........0.0%
Cantwell 99729........................0.........0.0%
Delta Junction 99737..................4.........0.9%

Page 10

Elim 99739............................0.........0.0%
Fort Yukon 99740......................1.........0.3%
Galena 99741..........................1.........0.2%
Healy 99743...........................3.........0.9%
Kaktovik 99747........................0.........0.0%
Kotzebue 99752........................3.........0.8%
Koyuk 99753...........................0.........0.0%
Manley Hots Spring 99756..............0.........0.0%
ZIP CODE
FREQUENCY
PERCENT
Nenana/Denali 99760...................3.........0.8%
Nome 99762............................3.........0.8%
Noorvik 99763.........................0.........0.0%
Savoonga 99769........................1.........0.0%
Shishmaref 99772......................1.........0.2%
Fairbanks 99775.......................0.........0.0%
Tok 99780.............................2.........0.5%
Wainwright 99782......................0.........0.0%
Juneau 99801.........................12.........2.9%
Juneau 99802..........................0.........0.0%
Angoon 99820..........................1.........0.2%
Douglas 99824.........................2.........0.5%
Gustavus 99826........................1.........0.2%
Haines 99827..........................2.........0.6%
Hoonah 99829..........................1.........0.2%
Kake 99830............................0.........0.0%
Petersburg 99833......................3.........0.7%
Sitka 99835...........................6.........1.5%
Skagway 99840.........................1.........0.2%
Ketchikan 99901.......................9.........2.2%
Craig 99921...........................2.........0.4%
Klawock 99925.........................0.........0.0%
Metlakatla 99926......................2.........0.6%
Ward Cove 99928.......................1.........0.2%
Wrangell 99929........................1.........0.3%

14.

GENDER (USUALLY DO NOT NEED TO ASK)........

GENDER

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Male...............................201........50.0%
Female.............................202........50.0%

THE FOLLOWING VARIABLE IS CALCULATED FROM

Page 11

THE MARITAL AND GENDER VARIABLES

MARITAL BY GENDER

FREQUENCY

PERCENT

Married Males......................116........28.8%
Married Females....................116........28.8%
Single Males........................86........21.2%
Single Females......................86........21.2%
This completes the survey. Thank you for helping us -- goodbye.

Page 12