THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL

(GEM) A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE

RISK REDUCTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
A presentation by
Dr. Myron W. Chin PhD, CEng, FICE, FIStructE, FAPETT
GEM OPERATIONAL MANAGER FOR THE CARIBBEAN
SEISMIC RESEARCH CENTRE, UWI
at the
6
th
CARIBBEAN CONFERENCE ON CDM
5
th
- 9
th
DEC. 2011
Copyright Myron Chin 2011
SUMMARY OF
PRESENTATION
- INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
- TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE CARIBBEAN
- SOME EXAMPLES OF DAMAGE
DONE BY RECENT EARTHQUAKES
- LAUNCH OF GEM IN THE CARIBBEAN
- REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (WGs)
- SOME OF PROPOSED RESEARCH PROJECTS OF WGs
- ACTIVE FAULTS CENTRAL RANGE FAULT, T&T
- BUILDING INVENTORY
- CONCLUDING REMARKS
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
The entire Caribbean Basin is prone to
socio-natural and man-made disasters
ECLAC estimates that the disaster
impact is over 1.5 billion US dollars/year
A number of national, regional (ODPM,
CDEMA, APRM, ACS) and international
organizations (PAHO, OAS) are
currently working in this area.
Now we have GEM
Caribbean Natural Hazards
Geological:
Earthquakes
Volcanic activity
Tsunamis
Landslides
Meteorological:
Hurricanes
Storm surge and wave action
Torrential rains
Caribbean plate (after Weber)
Tobago
Vertical neotectonics (tilting)(after Weber)
Ca-SA: 20 mm/yr
El Pilar fault historic + instrumental earthquakes
(6.8)
Mendoza (2000)
Perez et al. 2001
VENEZUELA
NA
SF
PF
0 mm/a
20
MF
san
a
VENEZUELA
NA
FS
FP
20 mm/yr
FM
-68
sana
CANOA
sana
MAR CARIBE
17
N
-58 -74W
6
MAJOR FAULTS IN TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO (After Lloyd Lynch)
TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02
(After Joan Latchman)
12
J ustification for Concern about
Natural Hazards
( As stated by Tony Gibbs)
Rising insurance premiums
Vulnerable tourism facilities
Special concerns of small island
states
Destructive recent Hurricanes and
Earthquakes
SOME EXAMPLES OF
EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE IN
THE CARIBBEAN REGION
-TOBAGO EARTHQUAKES 1997-04-02 &22
-MAGNITUDE 5.6 & 6.1
-DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE 2004-11-21
-MAGNITUDE 6.0
-HAITI EARTHQUAKE - 2010-01-12
-MAGNITUDE 7.0
TYPICAL DAMAGE TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF
1997-04-02 (MAGNITUDE 5.6) (Photo courtesy Dr. Joan Latchman)
TYPICAL DAMAGE -1 DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE
OF 2004-11-21( MAGNITUDE 6.0)
Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre
(Photos courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
TYPICAL DAMAGE -2-
DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21
Portsmouth Methodist Church
Recreational Centre
(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
TYPICAL DAMAGE -3-
DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21
Portsmouth RC Church Front Wall and Corners
Collapse (Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
TYPICAL DAMAGE -4-
DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21
Portsmouth RC Church Close-up of Collapse(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
TYPICAL DAMAGE -5 FLAT ROOF COLLAPSE
HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12 (7.0 MAG.)
(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
TYPICAL DAMAGE -6 OUT OF PLANE COLLAPSE
HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12
(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
TYPICAL DAMAGE -7 FAILURE OF COLUMNS
HAITI EARTHQUAKE OF 2010-01-12
(Photocourtesy Dr. D. Gay)
THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)
A collaborative effort devised and launched by
OECDs Global Science Forum, aimed at
engaging the global community in the design,
development and deployment of uniform open
standards and tools for earthquake risk
assessment worldwide
PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
10 countries
have adhered so
far
discussions and
negotiations are ongoing
with 15+ others
7 private organisations have
partnered up with GEM so far
they contribute
13.6 M Euro
the OECD, World Bank, UNESCO,
UN/ISDR, IAEE and IASPEI are associate
participants
SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM
Hazard
Probability,Intensity,
Loca on
Exposure
Value,Loca on;
Physical,Social,
Economic
Vulnerability
Physical,Social,
Economic,Ins tu onal;
Func ons,Indicators
RiskandImpactAnalysis
Damageandlossmaps,lossexceedancecurves,
riskindicators,indirectlosses,impactonsociety/
economy
DecisionMakingTools
Con ngencyPlanning,Territorial
Planning,CostBenefit

Anal ysi s,Ri sk

Governanceetc.
FIRST PRODUCTS
OpenQuake is an open source software application that allows users to
compute seismic hazard and risk on any scale, developed as an open source
project, available for download from http://openquake.org.
What is
?
ROLE OF GEMS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
IN BRINGING ACTIVITIES OF VARIOUS
COMPONENTS TOGETHER
GEM Brochure
Available from website and hard-copy
Bi-monthly e-Newsletter
Sign-up at website
STAY UPDATED
GEM Report 2009/2010 v2
Available from website and hard-copy
GEM Website
Most update source of information
News, results, calls,
www.globalquakemodel.org
LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN
PROGRAMME
-The development of Regional Programmes (RPs) is
the main mechanism through which the GEM tools
will be transferred with a view to creating a uniform
globally used standard. The RPsinvolve local
experts using GEM software and tools, who generate
local data and validate the data and standards that
are being created on the global level.
-The Institution of Structural Engineers (Caribbean
Division) hosted a presentation
of the GEM project at the NormandieHotel in
Trinidad on 15 October 2010.
LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN
REGIONAL PROGRAMME (Conted)
-In January 2011, the GEM Foundation (hereinafter
referred to as GEM) engaged The Seismic Research
Centre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies,
St. Augustine, to promote the GEM vision in the
Caribbean. Funding became available in March
2011 at which time the GEM Operational Manager,
Dr. Myron Chin, was appointed. He will, in
collaboration with all players/stakeholders from the
Caribbean community, spearhead the
implementation of the GEM initiative in the Insular
Caribbean and the effective functioning of the GEM
Regional Programme (RP) for the Caribbean
HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY
WORKSHOP- MAY 2-4,2011 TO
LAUNCH GEM REGIONAL
PROGRAMME IN THE CARIBBEAN
-OPENED BY HON. MINISTER OF SCIENCE,
TECHNOLOGY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION
- PRESENTATIONS BY DRS. RUI PINHO,MARCO PAGANI
AND HELEN CROWLEY OF GEM SECRETARIAT AND
TWENTY OTHERS
-ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY SOME 68 PARTICIPANTS
FROM NINE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES
- SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS FORMED
- FULL DETAILS OF WORKSHOP CAN BE FOUND AT:
http://uwiseismic.com/General.aspx?id=91
HON. MINISTER FAZAL KARIM
OPENS GEM WORKSHOP
PRESENTATION BY DR. RUI PINHO
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF GEM
PRESENTATION BY DR. MARCO
PAGANI GEM CO-ORDINATOR FOR
HAZARD
PRESENTATION BY DR. HELEN
CROWLEY GEM COORDINATOR
FOR RISK
GEM WORKSHOP 2-4 MAY 2011
GROUP PHOTOGRAPH
GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL
WORKING GROUPS
HAZARD- OVERALL CO-ORDI NATOR Dr. Walter
Salazar (Co-opted on 2011-05-19)
Group 1: Active Faults
Project Leader: Rafi Ahmed (MONA GEOINFORMATICS
UWI MONA, JAMAICA)
Participants:
Franck Audemardy Luz Rodrguez(FUNVISIS, Venezuela)
Lyndon Brown (Earthquake Unit, UWI Mona, Jamaica),
Wayne Adams (Consultant Jamaica)
Barbara Carby(DRRC, UWI Mona, Jamaica)
Joan LatchmanSRC, UWI, Trinidad
Enrique Arango, CENAIS, Mexico
Krishna Persad, Krishna Persad& Assoc. Ltd, Trinidad
(2001, 2002)
(2001)
Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)
Prentice et al. 2010
CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)
Holocene
FAULT
2002 Trench 9
CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)
GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL
WORKING GROUPS (Conted)
RISK- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR -Dr. Myron Chin
Group 5: Exposure
Leaders of Sub-Groups:
Building Codes: Carlos Buron
Critical Facilities: Wayne Adams
Retrofitting: Didier Deris
Expert Judgement: Anthony Farrell
Building Inventory: Kevin Granger
Members: Jacob Opadeyi, Jan Vermeiren, Cassandra La
Barrie, Mona GeoInformatics ( Sub-group co-opted on
2011-05-12)
Databases: Myron Chin, SRC, UWI, Trinidad
Members:to be co-opted by Leaders of Groups/SubGroups
DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)
Project Manager: U.W.I Disaster Risk
Reduction Centre (DRRC) at Mona, UWI
in J amaica.
Main Sponsor: World Bank
Completion Date: December 2011.
DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJ ECT)
OBJ ECTIVES
To develop a methodology for seismic risk
assessment in the Caribbean for three pilot
States: Jamaica, Grenada and Barbados.
To provide guidelines and open-source
software for the estimation of earthquake
loss using available socio-economic data.
Project Components
Seismic hazard assessment for J amaica in terms of
PGA and spectral ordinates for 0.2s and 1.0s
For Barbados and Grenada: we will use the seismic
hazard results of the Eastern Caribbean Project
(SRC/EUCENTRE).
Development/Adapted Fragility Curves
Modification, testing and validation of ELE
software
Determination of data requirements and collection
of geo-referenced data
Risk evaluation
VULNERABILITY AND
BUILDING STOCK
Precast houses
Reinforced concrete
apartments
Reinforced concrete
buildings on slopes
Masonry Houses
Modern Reinforced Concrete
Building at New Kingston
Wooden house
SURVEY ON DECEMBER 2010 - Kingston
Historical Buildings
DEVELOPMENT OF FRAGILITY CURVES
FOR pre-cast houses
Connections between panels are
effected by welding together
matching metal angle sections
embedded in the edge ribs of the
panels.
Heavy roof
FUTURE WORK
GEM collaboration:
- Collaboration with GEM in terms of assistance with
the OpenQuakesoftware development.
- Two of our Research Assistants from SRC will be
spending two months at the GEM Headquarters from end
August to end October 2011 to learn about OpenQuake
and to analyse the data collected under the DRRC Risk
Atlas Project in order to assess its applicability to the
Caribbean Region.
Project objectives
1. Develop a Crowdsourcing model which is appropriate to this Region and in keeping with
GEM Standards.
Crowdsourcing refers to the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by
employees or contracted labour, to a relatively undefined, large group of people or
community (a crowd), through an open call. I have chosen to refine this Wikipedia
definition to include the word relatively as the intention of this project is to break up
the crowd into two categories.
The Bounded Crowd will be those participators who will not have any specific experience
in structural data collection and will be limited in the data that they can submit. These
participators will be responsible for creating the Level 1 attributes as defined in the GEM
Taxonomy. Level 1 attributes will be those attributes that are easily observable and will
also include remote sensing, rapid assessments by municipalities (admin staff),
engineers, architects, technicians, and social scientists.
The Unbounded Crowd will therefore be those participators who will have had sufficient
experience in structural data collection techniques to be responsible for submitting Level
2 attributes. These attributes will contain detailed structural and non-structural
information obtained from a detailed building assessment by a qualified engineer.
Partnership with GEM appointed agencies/tools or other groups like UShahidi (see
www.ushahidi.com) would allow us to create a web-based system that can assemble
rank and filter the input from the crowd and present weighted results.
GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING
INVENTORY LEADER KEVIN GRANGER
GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL
WORKING GROUPS (Conted)
Group 6: Vulnerability
Tentative Leader: Dr. R. Clarke
Members: -Col. Dave Williams, Mr. Allan Stewart, Grisel
Morejon, CENAIS, Cuba, Jillian St. Bernard, SRC, UWI
Leader of Sub-Group: Tony Gibbs
-Effectiveness of Compliance Mechanisms
Members: - Didier Deris, Jan Vermeiren
Group 7: Socio-Economic Impact (SEI)-
OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Myron Chin
Leader of Sub-Group:- Jan Vermeiren
-Disaster Financing:
Members-Didier Deris, C. Rogers, Tony Gibbs, Fernando
Guasch, CENAIS, Cuba
- Valuation real estate
Leader of Sub-Group: Stacey Edwards ( Co-opted by M. Chin)
- Education and Outreach
- Members: Alia Juman, SRC, UWI, Ibia Vega, CENAIS, Cuba
CONCLUDING
REMARKS
In concluding this Presentation, it is appropriate to make the
following remarks-
-GEM IS A GLOBAL ATTEMPT AT COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN-SOURCE
SOFTWARE, TRANSPARENT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT
WORLDWIDE BY INVOLVING EXPERTS AND PROFESSIONALS FROM ALL REGIONS OF
THE WORLD AND AS SUCH PROVIDES A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION
NOT ONLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD
-GEM IS NOT A VEHICLE TO CARRY OUT THE WORK OF MAJ OR
INSURANCE/REINSURANCE COMPANIES
- GEM CARIBBEAN RP PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO BRING TOGETHER EARTHQUAKE
RISK REDUCTION PROFESSIONALS FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION TO WORK
TOGETHER IN ADAPTING THE TOOLS AND MODELS DEVELOPED BY GEM SO THAT
EARTHQUAKE RISK CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED IN THE VARIOUS ISLANDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN.