NFC Payments: Special Report for Computer Weekly

NFC Payments & Retail

Opportunities
Introduction
This special report for readers of Computer Weekly is based on Juniper Researchs recent report:

NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments: Business Models & Forecasts 2012-2017

Juniper Research sees mobile payments, along with mobile ticketing and mobile coupons as one of the
most important mobile applications driving the mCommerce market today.
Applications which incorporate NFC benefit from an elegance and simplicity for the user which it is
difficult for other mobile technologies and channels, e.g. SMS or barcodes, to emulate. NFC applications
can be invoked by a simple physical tap, rather than the need to open up a mobile application.
Additionally, the degree of accuracy in determining the mobile users position is far greater using NFC
than GPS, especially inside buildings or in streets in built-up areas, providing a level of assurance and
greater accuracy in targeting for the originator. In fact one vendor we spoke to characterised NFC as
barcodes on steroids.
Whilst the application of NFC technology adds to the momentum of mobile commerce applications
generally, the NFC dimension has brought with it a degree of complexity which has tended to offset the
natural elegance of NFC interactions. There is no doubt, however, that the enthusiasm for NFC
payments is growing.
This report aims to provide an understanding of the primary trends which can be discerned within the
rapidly-developing NFC marketplace, together with an overview of the primary drivers which are serving
to enhance growth prospects and the constraints which threaten to inhibit them. It also includes a
discussion on the prevalent (and emerging) business models, together with top-line regional forecasts for
the NFC Retail Payments market.

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The following figure summarises the trends, drivers and constraints highlighted in this report.
Figure 1: NFC Payment Trends, Drivers & Constraints

Source: Juniper Research

NFCs Pivotal Role in Retail

Of particular importance for the growth of NFC, Juniper Research believes that the mobile device has a
central role to play as customers shop at supermarkets, stores and other retail bricks and mortar
locations. The explosion of smartphones, the growth of the mobile web, the availability of high-speed
mobile broadband networks, and the ever-growing usage of SMS are all offering retailers, brands and
merchants new opportunities to communicate with customers and potential customers, and to offer the
ability for them to shop by mobile.
Major household brands, retailers and top tier MNOs are launching mobile marketing campaigns and
extending existing campaigns. They are all seeing the promise of the mobile as a retail tool and the
potential for targeted, more cost effective campaigns. The involvement of the mobile device in the
shopping experience begins well before the purchase transaction and continues through the in-store
experience and then beyond. Mobile therefore plays a pivotal role in both customer acquisition and
customer retention. The integration of the mobile device onto the retail shopping journey is mapped
below.

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Figure 2: The Mobile Device in the Retail Customer Journey

Marketing & Awareness

Campaigns:
Advertising, Search, Product Info
& Discovery, Browsing

Customer retention

Customer acquisition

Shopping in Store:

CRM Post Purchase:

Pre purchase: Price comparisons,

Stock availability, Product reviews
At POS: Shopping cart, Coupons,
Promotions, Gift Vouchers,
Payment/Wallet, Receipt, Loyalty

Personalised Offers, Loyalty

Management & Rewards,
Customer service messages

Source: Juniper Research

Key Trends in the NFC Marketplace

NFC Handset Market Growth
To assess industry views, Juniper Research conducted a wide range of interviews with players across the
NFC ecosystem. Almost all interviewees concluded that over the past year the constraint most blamed
for holding back the market, the lack of natively-enabled NFC handsets, was no longer an issue.
One or two interviewees, notably those with more of an emerging markets focus, still saw handset
availability as a constraint and felt that we are still a long way from mass market, but the consensus was
still that, at last, we are on the way.
In Juniper Researchs view, the announcement of more and more mobile phones with NFC appears to be
stimulating public awareness of the technology together with a consequent desire to know what NFC can
do. This situation may be the beginnings of a virtuous circle being put in place which, providing the user
experience does not disappoint, will lead to mass market adoption within a few years particularly in
developed countries.

NFC Technology Solution Maturity

NFC as a technology is now some ten years old but it has taken this time for it to reach a position
whereby the standards are in place to create a solution accommodating the requirements of all the
participants in the NFC payments ecosystem. Without exception the vendors interviewed for this
research have quoted these standards as the basis for their solutions and paid tribute to the standards
work in enabling the necessary interoperability between system components, whether on the
telecommunications or commerce side.

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The current maturity of the standards and technology for NFC payments is also illustrated by the fact that
the latest announcements and interworking announcements from the industry are less about agreeing
interfaces and processes and more about compliance testing1.
Nevertheless, there is not yet a turnkey solution for NFC infrastructure but the market is approaching
that position. In terms of the secure element, the SIM version has received the most attention and is the
most widely adopted and standardised technology, but TSMs (Trusted Service Managers) are all versionagnostic, leaving the flexibility for service providers to chose the most appropriate SE implementation.

NFC Security Issues Resolution

Just as the NFC payments technical solution is now judged to be in place based on agreed cross-sector
standards, so also have some of the earlier payment security concerns been substantially alleviated; at least
from the point of view of the ecosystem players. Visa and Mastercard have been very active in this
process and TSM providers are now supplying service solutions fully certified by the credit card industry.
Banks, however, have been less confident in the technical security of NFC payments particularly in the
mobile device area, but these issues are being resolved. The only security issues remaining in the technical
solution concern implementation e.g. recertifying an NFC-enabled POS (Point-of-Sale) or an NFC SIM
when a new protocol version, implementing the latest security standard, is deployed.

NFC/Contactless Infrastructure Rollout

The final former constraint that we have now upgraded to a positive trend is that of the availability of
contactless infrastructure i.e. the acceptance side of the NFC payments. The famous chicken-and-egg
paradigm between NFC handset issuance and NFC payments acceptance is now being resolved from both
sides and paradoxically they are being resolved independently, rather than cooperatively. The NFC
handsets bottleneck is being cleared despite very few commercial NFC wallet launches the NFC
acceptance bottleneck is being cleared due to multiple factors and not just within the payments sector.
In our recent Mobile Ticketing Report2, Juniper Research summarised the market forces helping to move
forward the NFC Ticketing Market as follows:
Figure 3: NFC Mobile Ticketing Market Synergies

Source: Juniper Research

e.g. http://www.contactlessnews.com/2012/02/22/globalplatform-emvco-partner-for-mobile-paymentcertification/?source=rss
1

Mobile Ticketing Evolution: NFC, Forecasts & Markets 2012-2016 [February 2012]

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In Juniper Researchs view, the conditions under which NFC Ticketing can start to address the massmarket are beginning to coalesce, with NFC gaining traction through synergies being created in adjacent
markets. NFC Ticketing is set to benefit from what is being achieved in these markets and can capitalise
on the investments that have and will be made in these areas. Conversely NFC Payments is benefitting
from the NFC Ticketing market.
1) The NFC mobile payments market is putting in place the necessary standards, agreements and
infrastructure to facilitate the addition of NFC mobile ticket purchase to the ticketing lifecycle in
the single-tap ticket purchase and delivery transaction. Crucially, NFC mobile payment services
are forging agreements between MNOs (mobile network operators) and Banks (or other
Financial Institutions).
2) The investment in contactless infrastructure for both contactless payments and contactless
ticketing can be re-used by NFC mobile ticketing and NFC mobile payments schemes.
3) The agreements currently being forged between financial institutions and MNOs to integrate
payments and ticketing on EMV (EuroPay/MasterCard/Visa) cards can be leveraged for NFC
Mobile Ticketing. Additionally this single card implementation prepares the customer base for
migration of the service onto the mobile phone.

Driving NFC Retail Growth

Increased Competition
Without doubt, the greatest driver of the NFC Payments market in 2011 was the launch of Google Wallet
and the announcement of the ISIS consortiums plans - i.e. competition.
Google Wallet was launched to the public in September 2011. Available on the NFC-enabled Sprint
Nexus S 4G handsets, users are able to use the Google Wallet application to tap and pay at participating
retailers using one of two payment methods: a PayPass eligible Citi MasterCard or a virtual Google
Prepaid card. More than 311,000 PayPass-enabled merchants participate globally. Leading retailers, such as
American Eagle Outfitters, Bloomingdales, Macys, RadioShack, Subway, ToysRUs and Walgreens,
participated using the SingleTap shopping experience. In the first three weeks of the launch, CorFire,
which provided the TSM, saw more than 300,000 mobile client activations.
ISIS is an MNO-led consortium of T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T and projects its sheer size (200m
subscribers) as its credentials for success in this market. Banking partners are American Express,
MasterCard and Visa. It will deploy initially to Austin and Salt Lake City in the first half of 2012 and then
expand nationwide.
This is not to imply that there have not been other NFC payments pilots or commercial schemes in
operation for some time (see next section). Juniper Research has tracked multiple such schemes around
the world for at least five years. The significance of the particular schemes launched in 2011 is that, apart
from their origin in the vibrant US market, they represent the intense interest in NFC payments from a)
on OTT (Over-The-Top) player such as Google and b) a consortium of major MNOs (ISIS). They also
show that enough business model, technical and scalability issues have been resolved for these different
players to show publicly their belief in NFC payments as a disruptive service, launch services and stake
their place in the market.
Of the two initiatives highlighted above, it is Google which has woken the market and stimulated a
reaction from the other market players. Ever since the launch of Google Wallet the question now being
asked by all market players is how to respond. Google has taken the first step in what is now no longer a
shall-we, but a me-too market. It is interesting to consider that in the mobile commerce market,
one which constitutionally comprises MNOs and Financial Institutions, it is an OTT advertising player
which has shown that NFC payments can be launched, ignited the market and set the pace.

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Positive Trial & Commercial Service Feedback

By mid-2012, service providers in some 30 countries had either trialled or commercially deployed NFC
infrastructure.
Although feedback from trials and commercial launches is sometimes difficult to obtain, the overwhelming
consensus from the players interviewed for this report was very positive. One experienced vendor told
Juniper Research that typically trials initially experienced lower than expected numbers of transactions at
the beginning, largely due to familiarisation issues on the part of the comsumers and the retailers, but
these pick up rapidly and 85-90% consumer satisfaction rates apply generally.

MNO Investment
Building on the success of NFC trials, usually measured by user satisfaction ratings, the real indicator of
market traction is whether there is investment being made into NFC infrastructure by MNOs and
Financial Institutions. 2011 appeared to be the year when, MNOs at least, have started investing in such
infrastructure supporting the promises of intent made via the GSMA, the industry body representing
mobile operators.

NFC Support Initiatives

Government funding support has been important to incentivise contactless infrastructure. In Singapore,
the IDA (Infocomm Development Authority) announced in October 2011 the award of a contract for
trusted service management to a consortium led by Gemalto and called for NFC payment, ticketing and
tag-reading services to be launched starting in 2012. Likewise, in France there has also been a financial
incentive to encourage deployment around the Cityzi project in Nice where MNO, banks and transport
operators share a common NFC infrastructure, a model which is now being extended to other major
French cities.
Major city events also galvanise local government to equip their own citizens and incoming tourists with
state-of-the-art showcase facilities which often include payments, ticketing and event access; all ideal
applications for mobile and NFC technology. The European City of Culture programme generated such
support and many expect NFC to play a significant part in the London 2012 Olympics.
In November 2011, Ericsson published the second edition of its Networked Society City Index ranking
cities in terms of their ability to use ICT to benefit their citizens.

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Figure 4: Ericsson Networked Society City Index

Source: Ericsson3

All three leading cities (Singapore, London and Stockholm) have made substantial strides in unifying their
ICT structures and obtaining commercial agreements to facilitate either or both NFC/contactless
payments or ticketing.

Emerging Market Interest

It is always a positive indication when emerging markets take an early interest in a new technology despite
the focus of attention being in developed markets. According to a number of players we interviewed,
there is a strong drive coming from emerging markets, particularly in Africa and India, to jump existing
mobile payment technologies and move straight to NFC. For emerging markets the appeal of NFC
centres both around the substitution of cash and the need to reduce credit card fraud (which is
particularly high in these markets). These are drivers which, although relevant to the developed market,
are not the primary drivers for NFC adoption in emerging markets.
At Mobile World Congress 2012, a representative of MTN Uganda expressed disappointment at the slow
pace of NFC adoption for ticketing and payments globally, which he believed was restricting its adoption in
Uganda. There is a great demand for mobile money in all its variants in Uganda and he predicted that
mobile money would become the dominant currency by 20164. NFC has a part to play in this
transformation.
Juniper Research believes that we will see NFC start to develop a footprint in emerging markets.
Nevertheless, the impact on the NFC retail payments market in emerging markets will be limited within
the current forecast period but start to grow as developed markets reach mass-market status.

3
4

http://www.ericsson.com/networkedsociety/city-index/
Mobile World Congress 2012 Mobile Money: Emerging Markets Seminar [March 2012]

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Constraints on NFC Market Development

Despite the positive trends and drivers in the NFC market, there are still constraints in play. These
constraints, however, were no longer seen by the companies we interviewed as holding back the market
from developing, but simply restricting the speed at which it develops. This section reflects the most
common responses to the question Now that the NFC handset constraint is removed, what do you see
as the next hurdle to overcome?

Business Model Agreement

Next to handset availability it is the agreement of an equitable business model that constitutes the other
major constraint restricting the development of the NFC market. These two issues are of course
intimately related.
However it is pertinent to mention here that the use of NFC for retail payments is not without its
competitors and cloud payments i.e. the use of the mobile internet to make retail payments is a
competing payment method. The prime exponent of the non-NFC retail payments route is PayPal
which has developed not only cloud payments, but other methods of making retail payments. PayPal is
taking a much wider view of the market, setting the payment both in its retail and banking perspective.
This is not to attribute PayPal with an anti-NFC stance; it, like other less well-known companies, simply
sees NFC as one of a number of alternative retail payment technologies which need to be seen as part of
the wider mobile retail market [r]evolution5. Juniper Research concurs with this stance, recognising that
the emulation of the credit or debit card within the NFC handset is essentially only a replication of the
card payment paradigm; there is a vast opportunity for innovation in the mobile retail market with
stronger links to the cloud. In the short term however, alternative payment technologies exert a strong
attraction for retailers in particular as PayPal, for example, offers a lower transaction fee than the major
card companies and an ease of implementation compared to that of NFC.

Mobile Wallet Readiness

The sudden removal of the NFC handset constraint has actually revealed a lack of readiness of wallet
applications both in terms of their availability and openness. Of course wallet providers, like Proxama
have been working on the technology for some time, but it has generally been the financial institutions,
with notable exceptions, that have been caught out by the igniting of the market during 2011. Within the
financial market, the banks do not seem as far advanced in their wallet offerings as the credit card
companies.
Looking within the wallet itself, we are still far from the open wallet position i.e. the user can use their
existing debit or credit card accounts. Although most wallet providers claim openness, in reality most
wallets require users to set up a new prepaid card facility or adopt the default card that comes with the
wallet.
There remains too the fundamental issue of how many wallets a user will, or can, realistically operate. If
the folded or leather wallet analogy is taken, then the answer is simply one. Juniper Research
believes that the wallet wars have started and that users will indeed trial a number of different wallets
before making a choice. However it is not yet clear whether the single physical wallet analogy will
translate into a single mobile wallet or whether users will have more than one. Unlike the physical wallet
which is bought by the user and agnostic to its contents, mobile wallets reflect the brand of its issuer
and a user will take this into account as well as its functionality and contents before making a choice.
Furthermore the mobile device offers far more capability for manipulating multiple wallets than its physical
antecedent.
See Juniper Researchs Report Mobile Retail Marketing: Advertising, Coupons & NFC Shopping 2011-2016
[November 2011]
5

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Retailer Readiness
Again, the unlocking of the NFC handset bottleneck has increased the focus on the readiness of retailers
to accept contactless and NFC payments. Until now, the retailer readiness constraint has centred around
the need for retailers to invest in NFC-enabled POS terminals; which has been particularly unattractive as
they have only recently made investments to support CHIP and PIN - hence delaying the move to NFC.
However, the natural churn of equipment will eventually solve this problem as new POS terminals are
shipping with contactless capability as standard; nevertheless retailers still face challenges in training staff
to accept contactless or NFC payments.
Apart from the equipment and staff training, the more fundamental constraint is that of the retailers
involvement in the NFC ecosystem and their own business case. Until now retailers, deliberately or
otherwise, have not been major contributors to the NFC payments solution debate. For a retailer then,
contactless and NFC payments are not a given and the business model has yet to be proven to them.

User Readiness
Despite the availability of NFC-enabled handsets, mobile wallet trials and early commercial deployments of
NFC payment schemes, opinions are divided as to whether users are ready to adopt this form of payment.
There are a number of aspects to this concern:
1) Whether users are ready for NFC. It is noticeable that some ecosystem players are promoting
other uses for NFC rather than payments e.g. device connectivity, information tag reading,
integration within games etc. The rationale for promoting non-payment applications is to gain user
familiarisation and acceptance of the technology so that users move to NFC payments already
confident with the concept and look-and-feel of NFC interactions. A use case illustrating the
need for building such user confidence is when either the mobile device or the POS terminal does
not have NFC activated prior to the intended interaction. In this situation the tap does not result
in a positive interaction and the user may be left unclear as to what has happened. However,
standards now specify that this initial tap results in NFC becoming enabled, so that a double tap
completes the interaction. Users have to become familiar with this situation in order to become
comfortable with an NFC payments transaction that may appear to fail on first tap.
2) Whether users are ready for NFC Payments. The essence of an NFC payment is that it is as
simple to use as a contactless card. If the mobile user interface or ergonomics of the NFC payment
is not user-friendly then (apart from the VAS opportunity) users may well decide to simply use a
contactless card instead.
3) Whether users will use NFC Payments. Currently NFC payments are limited in transaction
value in PIN-free mode (a PIN must be entered to authorise transactions above a certain threshold).
Although this mode of operation has been instituted to lower the perceived security risk of NFC
transactions (see next point), it can also discourage adoption if a consumer is purchasing item(s)
near or over the transaction limit.
4) Whether users are comfortable with NFC Payment Security. Despite the fact that NFC
payments use the same payments networks, encryption, protection and security protocols as cards
and have extra layers of security provided by the wallet application, the average user may still
perceive NFC payments to be less secure than a card transaction. The recent brute force PIN
security vulnerability discovered in Google Wallet has not allayed fears in this area.

Customer Care
Alongside the constraint of user readiness is the issue of Customer Care. It is vital that users know who
to contact in the event of a problem with their service and this not at all intuitive. For example, if an NFC
payment fails to be authorised or complete at a retailer POS terminal, who does the user go to for
resolution? Is it the retailer, the MNO, the wallet issuer or the financial institution? Customer care
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contact numbers and procedures must be in place before a service is launched. At present the industry
concensus is that, irrespective of who issues the wallet, the user will most naturally contact their MNO in
the event of a problem. The MNO can then route the call to the appropriate customer service
organisation according to the nature of the problem. However, in the case of multiple secure elements in
a handset there is a potential problem. Whilst standards are in place for TSMs to manage the secure
element in whatever form factor it is implemented, according to the GSMA, customer care procedures
are only in place for the SIM SE variant. This means that MNO customer care centres do not have visibility
of embedded or microSD card secure elements, hence users operating wallets using these other secure
element choices cannot currently be assisted by their MNO in resolving NFC payment problems.

3.2 The NFC Business Model

In the words of one executive interviewee, the state of health of the NFC business model is light years
from where we were a year ago but it is still the strongest constraint in the market. Interestingly, the
feedback gleaned from ongoing business model discussions indicates that the contention between players
is no longer simply how do I make money? but now who owns the keys [to the SE]?.

Consortia Status
Single Player Consortia
Although this term appears contradictory, we use this classification to denote NFC payment projects like
Google Wallet which has already been described in this report. Although Google is clearly not the only
player in the project, Google Wallet has been successfully launched because Google, as a single, well
known player, secured individual agreements with a single handset manufacturer (Samsung), a single MNO
(Sprint), multiple credit card companies and multiple retailers to rollout a service.
Nevertheless, Google is now facing problems in extending its reach as it is currently restricted in both
handset and MNO distribution channels. Recent reports have suggested that Google is in discussion with
AT&T and Verizon to increase adoption, but on a revenue-sharing basis with the MNOs.

Two Party Consortia

In this model an agreement has been reached between two parties on either side of the mobile commerce
divide to launch a service. Examples of two party consortia are Orange and Barclaycard in the UK and
Telefonica and La Caixa in Spain. Although retailers must be involved, the public projection of the service
is of dual MNO/Financial Institution cooperation.
Such two party models often publicise the fact that other players may join the consortium later on after
the initial service is launched. Such models have worked well, mainly due to their simplicity; however
there are drawbacks in that the model does not scale for the mass market (unless both partners are the
dominant incumbents in their sectors).

MNO-led Consortia
By far the most common consortia or JV currently being announced are those where multiple MNOs are
seen working together, usually in a single country or region. Examples of this are ISIS (US), Project Oscar
(UK) and 4T (Scandinavia).
In some cases MNO-led consortia have failed, for example, in Belgium6.

http://mobilemarketingandtechnology.com/2012/02/26/belgian-mobile-payment-initiative-falls-apart/

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Integrated Consortia
We use the term Integrated to express consortia where a joint-ownership scheme model is adopted
across many ecosystem players and where no single player or sector dominates the consortium. We have
already mentioned the government-backed and initiated scheme of the Singapore IDA but the prime
example of this form of cooperation in the private sector is the French Cityzi project under the auspices
of the AFSCM (Association Francaise du Sans Contact Mobile).
Figure 5: Cityzi Branding

Source: AFSCM

Although the AFSCM was established in 2008 by three MNOs, it was done so on a non-profit making basis
and from the outset included banks, transport operators and retail marketing partners. As can be seen
from the above figure it promotes itself under the Cityzi brand and signage, giving it a unified public
identity.

Conclusion
There is a clear progression in the above consortia models, and with them, in our view an increasing level
of success. It is significant, perhaps, that there are no instances today of Financial Institution-led or
Retailer-led consortia; however these variants are not excluded as possibilities as the following sections
will indicate. It is still too early to judge how the consortia will evolve and whether they will grow
inorganically or fragment. In Juniper Researchs view, except for the Integrated Consortia, the other
models will have a lifespan of up to three years and some considerably less.

NFC Retail Payment Market Forecasts

Juniper Research anticipates that the market for NFC retail payments will reach $180 billion annually by
2017. At the present time transactions occur predominantly in the well-established Japanese and Korean
markets, but we envisage that the factors alluded to earlier in this report most particularly the rise in
NFC-enabled handsets and of in-store infrastructure allied to concerted promotional activity from leading
OTT providers and MNOs should lead to exponential growth elsewhere.

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Figure 6: NFC Retail Payments by Region 2017 ($180.5 billion)

Source: Juniper Research

Indeed, we believe given the maturity of the developed Asian markets, and consequent comparatively
limited scope for future growth that the scale of transactions in both Western Europe and North
America will have eclipsed those in the Far East & China by 2016, and that the former region will account
for some 35% of NFC retail payments by the following year.

Order the Full Report

This special report for readers of Computer Weekly is based on Juniper Researchs recent report:

NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments: Business Models & Forecasts 2012-2017

In the full report, Junipers second edition assessment of the NFC Retail Market & Mobile Payments
industry, the analyst house provides an in-depth analysis of the NFC Retail Payments market ecosystem,
highlighting the primary business models which have emerged and the key drivers behind recent growth. It
examines the roles played by network operators, financial institutions, OTT providers and retailers, and
through a series of case studies explores the opportunities for each of these players.
Based on a combination of primary research interviews with leading industry participants and secondary
research, Juniper also provides regional (and, in an accompanying Excel dataset, national) forecasts of NFC
handset adoption, NFC retail transaction volumes and values, operator retail payment management
revenues and NFC coupon and ticketing volumes.
Finally, the report includes a vendor matrix which offers an assessment of selected vendors that are active
in the NFC Mobile Commerce space, summarising player capability. This is accompanied by vendor
profiles which conclude with Junipers views of the key strengths and strategic development opportunities
for each vendor.

Juniper Research Limited

Juniper Research specialises in providing high quality analytical research reports and consultancy services
to the telecoms industry. We have particular expertise in the mobile, wireless, broadband and IP-

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convergence sectors. Juniper is independent, unbiased, and able to draw from experienced senior
managers with proven track records.
Publication Details
Publication date: May 2012
For more information, please contact:
Michele Ince, General Manager michele.ince@juniperresearch.com
Juniper Research Ltd, Church Cottage House, Church Square, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 7QW UK
Tel: UK: +44 (0)1256 830001/475656 USA: +1 408 716 5483 (International answering service)
Fax: +44(0)1256 830093
Further Executive Briefings and whitepapers can be downloaded at http://www.juniperresearch.com

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