Earthquake Forecasting

Patricia Miller, Ph.D., Educator

MathScience Innovation Center
Developed with funding from the MathScience Innovation Center
Major
Understanding

How can scientists, engineers, and citizens be better prepared to cope with
earthquake hazards? Can scientists protect Earth's population by predicting
earthquakes? Through hands-on activities, students will explore the fascinating
world of earthquake forecasting: why and how earthquakes happen,
uncertainty and chaos theory in earthquake prediction, cutting-edge research in
earthquake forecasts, and important debates about quake predictability.

Grade/Subject

Earth Science

Objectives

Explore whether scientists can protect Earths population by predicting

earthquakes.
Review why and how earthquakes happen.
Explore current research in earthquake forecasting and important
debates about quake predictability.
Explore the how modern forecasting efforts can improve earthquake
preparedness.
Investigate uncertainty and chaos theory in earthquake forecasting.

Time

Earthquake Forecasting

Anticipatory Set: Noteworthy Quakes

Activity: Quake Quiz Part 1 & Discussion
Activity: Quake Quiz Part 2 & Discussion
Modern research: forecasting & preparedness
Modelling earthquake activity: chaos theory & cellular
automata
Activity: BingoQuake!! earthquake model
Closure
Practice
Assessments

http://mathinscience.info

5 min
15 min
15 min
10 min
15 min
25 min
5 min
Variable
Variable

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Materials

For the student:

Quake Quiz Are You the Next Principal Prestigious
Prognosticator of Tremulous Terrain?
Student Worksheet Questions for BingoQuakes & Bingo Box
Model
For each team of 2 students:
Graphing calculator
Sharpened #2 pencil
Pink Pearl or retractable click-stick eraser
One set of BingoQuake Instructions for Cellular Automata
BingoQuakes
One BingoQuake 5X5 Bingo Box (bingo card)
One Bingo Quake Stats Sheet
One sheet of graph paper (for Practice Activity)
For the teacher:
PowerPoint Presentation (QuickTime, Flash, and Real players are
needed to display videos & animations in this presentation; Internet
connection is needed for the hyperlinks in Slides 47 and 50.)
Computer, projector, and speakers
(Optional) 2 wood blocks, wooden ruler, plastic ruler, Silly Putty
Key to Quake Quiz Part 2
Answer Key for Student Worksheet

State and National

Correlations

Virginia Standards of Learning: Earth Science (ES.1, ES.2, ES.8)

National Science Education Standards: Unifying Concepts & Processes; Science
As Inquiry; Structure of the Earth System; Natural & Human Induced Hazards

21st Century
Curriculum

Fractal Geometry: Repetitive Process (2.34); Model Nature (6.32, 6.35)

Instructional
Strategies

1. Please note that in addition to the strategies outlined here, script &/or
additional hints are included in the Notes for individual slides in the
PowerPoint presentation for this lesson
2. Anticipatory set: Noteworthy Quakes
Use the PowerPoint presentation. Slide 2 presents the lesson objectives.
Slide 3 emphasizes the point that we seem always to be hearing or seeing news
about earthquakes somewhere in the world and its because earthquakes are
always happening! Click on the photo to load & play an animation showing
earthquake activity in the Western U.S. during just one week in March 2006.
Color key for the quakes is: yellow = Magnitude <2, orange = Magnitude 2-5,
red = Magnitude >5
Slides 4 & 5 summarize information about the deadly Sichuan, China,

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earthquake of May 2008, and Slides 6-9 highlight the destructive earthquake
and tsunami of December 2004.
Even Virginia has had its share of recent noteworthy earthquakes. Slides 10 &
11 present information about two relatively large Virginia earthquakes during
2003. On Slide 11 point out the extensive area of light blue on the map, of
Mercalli Intensity IV (good opportunity to reinforce Mercalli Scale), in which
people experienced light shaking. Students in Richmond and the surrounding
area may have felt one or both of these quakes. Ask students to share their own
experiences with these quakes.
Slide 12 indicates that the December 2003 Virginia quake is on a USGS list of
most felt earthquakes. Ask the students why they think our quake is #3, also
why places like Tennessee & Indiana are also in the Top Ten, why so many of
the quakes in the Top Ten are relatively low magnitude none of these places
being earthquake hotbeds and only one is from the western U.S., where there
is much more seismic activity. (Very likely Virginians noted & reported that
they felt the quake because it was a very unusual experience, whereas in places
where there are many frequent small quakes that many people get used to them
& probably pay little attention to them.)
3. ACTIVITY: Quake Quiz Part 1 and Discussion
After displaying Slide 13, distribute the Quake Quiz Are You the Next
Principal Prestigious Prognosticator of Tremulous Terrain? and have the
students complete Part 1 (on the front of the paper). This will normally take
only a few minutes.
After students have completed the quiz, show Slides 14-16. All four statements
in Part 1 are true. Slides 17 & 18 are a tongue-in-cheek review of each of the
statements. Slides 19-28 and their accompanying notes explain in more detail
how this works, i.e., why the statements are true. Slides 20-26 contain USGS
earthquake data, selected from an average month with no major
newsmaker quakes. As you progress through these slides, make sure to relate
their information to the statements in Part 1 of the quiz.
For Slide 20, ask the students about the distribution of quakes shown on the
map. They should note that most of the quakes are concentrated in certain
zones, and that these zones mark plate boundaries. Have students review the
types of boundaries and how/why quakes happen at these boundaries.
Depending on prior topics covered in class, you may wish to ask them to
indicate locations on the map that are examples of each of the three major types
of plate boundaries.
Slides 22-24 present the specific data for the earthquakes shown graphically on
the map in Slide 21.
For Slide 25, ask students why so many of the quakes are concentrated in
California & Alaska. Also note the 2 quakes in the New Madrid area, and

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either point out the relationship to the 1811-1812 New Madrid activity, or if
you have previously discussed the New Madrid quakes of 1811-12 in class, ask
the students why there is quake activity in the middle of the continent.
Slides 27 & 28 demonstrate that even in Virginia, which is not seismically very
active, one could still predict earthquake activity relatively well just by
guessing, because the patterns of quake activity provide fairly good probability
of coincidence.
Slide 29 makes the important point that all three pieces of information time,
location, and size of earthquake are necessary for true prediction and that
each of the statements in Part 1 of the quiz is missing at least one of these three
pieces.
4. ACTIVITY: Quake Quiz Part 2 and Discussion
After displaying Slide 30, have students complete Part 2 of the Quake Quiz (on
the back of the sheet). When they have finished Part 2, show Slides 31 & 32,
reading each bulleted statement aloud as it is displayed on the screen and
discussing additional information contained in the PowerPoint notes.
5. Modern Research: Forecasting and Preparedness
Slide 33 lists some quake precursors, with detailed explanation in the notes for
the slide. However, these precursors have usually been recognized after a
quake has happened, and their patterns vary considerably, depending on
specific site conditions. Slide 34 points out that it is highly unlikely that
scientists will ever be able to truly predict earthquakes, i.e., exact time PLUS
location PLUS size, and that it makes more sense to spend time and money on
advanced monitoring & data collection, improved modelling, engineering &
planning techniques and approaches (such as quake-resistant construction) for
earthquake prone areas, public education, and various earthquake preparedness
measures. Slides 35-40 illustrate some examples of these efforts.
The first animation in Slide 35 illustrates the use of INSAR technology for
detecting extremely slight ground bulges associated with stress buildup prior to
earthquakes. The second animation is a simulation, from INSAR and a great
variety of other earthquake data, of this characteristic type of ground bulging,
as reconstructed for 1000 years of earthquake history on the San Andreas Fault.
Have the students observe how there are certain repetitions of locations and
sizes of quakes almost in a pattern but the pattern then gets disrupted this
observation will be an important basis for later discussion of chaos. Have them
also note places where there is constant flickering of very small bulges in
areas like Hollister CA (NW-central part of the fault), where the fault is
constantly moving and releasing stress in frequent small quakes.
Slide 36 is an example of how the approach illustrated in the animations was
combined with probability analyses to forecast increased likelihood of quakes
by decade in areas of California affected by faults and earthquake activity.
Although the method did not predict exact place, time, and size of any quakes,

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it worked very well forecasting, i.e., indicating increased probability of quakes

within the sort of time window (a decade - in this case 2000-2009) that is useful
for targeting planning, construction and preparedness efforts. Slide 37 is
another example of probabilistic forecasting for the San Francisco Bay area. In
this case, the information is part of a document used for planning and public
education about quake hazards and preparedness for this highly quake-prone
area.
Slide 38 is the part of the Webpage for EarthScope, a massive collaborative
research effort funded by the National Science Foundation, that utilizes stateof-the-art technologies, data collection, computer mapping and visual
representations, scientific modelling, and educational programs to gain an
enhanced understanding of dynamic processes in Earths interior with a major
focus on earthquakes and plate tectonics. The symbols on the map illustrate the
density of field instrumentation and monitoring involved in this effort. Ask
students why there are so many more stations in the western U.S. (This is the
seismically more active part of the country because it is affected by active plate
boundaries.)
Slide 39 illustrates another important emphasis earthquake preparedness
and the unprecedented emergency preparedness drill, the Great Southern
California Shakeout of 2008. This drill coordinated emergency preparedness
and response to a hypothetical Magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas
Fault in Southern California. Participation exceeded 5.7 million people,
including students and teachers from hundreds of schools, and additional
Shakeouts are being planned for 2009 and future years. The notes for this slide
provide details about photos and video all of them involving students and/or
teachers who participated.
Slide 40 illustrates another part of the preparedness drill, animations prepared
by the USGS, for several cities and populous suburbs in Southern California.
These animations were based on data from prior earthquakes, including records
of the types of ground motions caused by these earlier quakes. The map on the
left shows the movement of earthquake waves (energy) as they travel away
from the epicenter. The aerial view on the right simulates the type of ground
rolling and shaking that could be expected in the area during such a quake
this can be helpful for preparedness, evacuation, and design. There are detailed
notes accompanying this slide & its linked animation.
Students will observe a video animation illustrating how the hypothetical quake
would affect the Long Beach area. Before showing the video, on the slide point
out the location of the San Andreas Fault and the epicenter of the fake quake
on the map at left and tell students to note the way the waves spread outward
from the epicenter via energy transfer, when they watch the video (good
opportunity to review earthquake waves and how they travel). Also ask them to
note what type of waves is observed in and around Long Beach in the
animation (surface waves moving outward from the epicenter & causing
ground rolling and tilting).

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Also prior to showing the animation, on the photo at right, point out the timer
and the color code for shaking intensity (Mercalli Scale numbers), and tell
students to observe these during the animation how intense is the shaking in
Long Beach, and how much time is required for shaking to travel from the
epicenter to Long Beach would people have much time to evacuate?
Then click the center of the aerial view of Long Beach to open and play the
simulation.
6. Modelling Earthquake Activity: Chaos Theory & Cellular Automata
Slide 41 reviews two important concepts related to earthquakes. Have students
recall the colorful 1000 year animation of the San Andreas and the way the
quakes exhibited certain patterns, but that the patterns were not repeated
exactly and identically.
1) The overall general patterns result from the continuous
movement along the fault, which is a major plate boundary (strike-slip,
or transform). However, minor variations in local geology will result in
slightly different responses to stress buildup in the rocks along the fault
and different rock behavior. If time and lesson pacing permit, use the
wood blocks, wooden & plastic rulers, and Silly Putty, as described in
the notes for the slide, to demonstrate these different responses and how
they would result in different sizes and motions of their associated
earthquakes. These local differences in rock behavior are the reason
why the patterns of quake activity do not repeat exactly.
2) Scientists are using a fascinating new field of mathematics called
chaos theory to help understand earthquakes and several other complex
natural phenomena that are impossible to precisely predict for
instance long term climate patterns, also the paths of hurricanes. The
major concept behind chaos theory is that although many natural
phenomena follow certain general patterns (e.g., quakes on the San
Andreas Fault) , a very small change in initial conditions (different local
rock and geologic factors) can cause large deviations in the final
outcome (the resulting quakes dont repeat patterns exactly).
Slide 42 illustrates that hurricanes are another example of a natural
phenomenon exhibiting chaos, or chaotic behavior.
Slide 43 discusses self-organized criticality, the type of behavior on earthquake
faults that is associated with the use of chaos theory in quake forecasting. Slide
44 provides an excellent non-nature example of self-organized criticality.
So how do scientists use chaos and self-organized criticality to model
earthquake activity? One way is to construct physical models such as that
illustrated in Slide 45.
However, advances in personal computer technology have facilitated
development of much more powerful a mathematical and computer modeling

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approach called cellular automata. Slide 46 describes cellular automata, and

Slides 47-51 provide examples of applications of cellular automata. In Slides
48 & 51, clicking on the curved arrow in the slide will hyperlink to an Internet
site providing an animated illustration of the particular application.
Slide 52 the final activity in this lesson will use cellular automata to model
earthquake behavior, in a special application called BingoQuakes.
7. ACTIVITY: BingoQuake!! Earthquake Model
For this activity, students work in teams of 2. Have students divide into teams
and distribute the materials specified for each team. Distribute one copy of the
Student Worksheet - Questions for BingoQuakes & Bingo Box Model to each
individual student. Show Slides 53-66, which explain the concept and
procedure of BingoQuakes, before the students begin the activity. Explain to
the students that this procedure is also included in the BingoQuake!!
Instructions for Cellular Automata BingoQuakes that was distributed to each
team.
Slide 53 introduces the Bingo Box and explains that it represents the fault
surfaced of an active fault. Teams will be generating random numbers to create
stress buildup on the fault to eventually cause BingoQuakes.
Slides 54-56 are animations illustrating 3 earthquakes of progressively larger
magnitude. The animations show how energy is transferred outward from the
quakes focus and eventually dies out. For a larger magnitude quake thus
larger release of energy the area affected is increasingly larger as the energy
spreads outward. As shown in Slide 57, when generating BingoQuakes, larger
magnitude quakes will similarly affect a larger area on the fault surface by
affecting a greater number of bingo squares.
Slide 58 is the cue for programming the calculators to generate random
numbers. At this point, introduce the preferred calculator procedure, selecting
one of the following: (1) If students are already proficient in the use of
graphing calculators, have them follow the procedure in the Instructions for
Cellular Automata BingoQuakes handout, to set up the calculators to generate
random numbers between 1 and 25. (2) The teacher can set up the calculators
ahead of time, according to the Cellular Automata Instruction Sheet, so that the
students need only press the Enter button to generate their numbers. (3)
Consulting your calculator manual for programming the calculators and using
the steps in the Cellular Automata Instructions for production of the random
numbers, program the calculator for a permanent program that can be accessed
to produce random numbers between 1 and 25.
Slides 59-64 illustrate the basic procedure for generating BingoQuakes. This
procedure is also described in detail in the PowerPoint notes and in the handout
Instructions for Cellular Automata BingoQuakes.
Slide 65 illustrates how quakes with Magnitude > 1 are generated.

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Slide 66 illustrates the case where a bingo square accumulates more than 4
tick marks worth of stress.
When you reach Slide 67, instruct the students to begin the exercise and assist
them as they work. Have them generate BingoQuakes for 15-20 minutes and
then answer the first 2 questions on the student worksheet.
Slide 68 So What Now? Using the students results and the Answer Key for
the BingoQuakes exercise, discuss the results of the BingoQuakes activity and
specifically Questions 1 & 2 on the student worksheet.
8.. Closure
Slide 69 So What Now? The Final Question. Discuss the question asked at
the end of the student worksheet: How is the Bingo Box doing as a model for
earthquakes?
Practice

Extensions

1. EXTRA from Student Worksheet

Using the EXTRA section on the student worksheet, students plot their
BingoQuake results and analyze the plots as instructed in the worksheet.

1. BingoQuakes Too!! Lesson Extension

Materials for Individual Students: Extension Worksheet BingoQuakes Too!!
Materials for each Team of 2 Students: Extension Stats Sheet BingoQuake Too!!
Materials for Teacher: Answer Key for Extension Worksheet
The BingoQuakes Too!! extension activity uses data generated in the Bingo Box
exercise to investigate foreshocks and seismic gaps and their usefulness in
earthquake prediction. Definitions and instructions are included in the student
worksheet. Before beginning their analyses, student teams will need to transfer
their data from their original BingoQuakes Stats Sheets to the Extension Stats
Sheets. After students have completed the exercise, use their observations and the
information in the answer key to discuss the questions on the worksheet.
2. More Chaos! Storm Tracers: Patterning the Weather
http://www.mathinscience.info/public/storm_tracers/storm_tracers_web_lesson.htm
This hands-on investigation from the MathScience Innovation Center introduces
students to another example of chaos in Earths systems, in this case hurricanes and
weather forecasting. Students try their hands at predicting a hurricane's path and
then use tops to model hurricane movement. An overview of chaos theory reveals
why weather and storms are so difficult to predict and leads to the topic of
ensemble forecasting.
3. More Cellular Automata! Population Patterns

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http://www.mathinscience.info/public/population_pattern/pop_pattern_lesson.htm
For students interested in further applications of cellular automata in the natural
sciences, several activities in this lesson from the MathScience Innovation Center
use cellular automata to model the forest growth and forest fires.
Assessment

Sample items are provided for use in checking students understanding.

Student Paper-Pencil Quiz and Answer Key
Student Product and Grading Rubric
The following table shows how the assessment items are related to specific
objectives.
Objective

PaperPencil
Quiz

Explore whether scientists can protect Earths

population by predicting earthquakes. (ES.1,
ES.2, ES.8)

4,7,9

Review why and how earthquakes happen.

(ES.8)

Teaching Tips

Product/
Performance

1,3,8, 10

Explore current research in earthquake

forecasting and important debates about
quake predictability. (ES.1, ES.2, ES.8)

4,7

Explore the how modern forecasting efforts

can improve earthquake preparedness. (ES.8)

4,7

Investigate uncertainty and chaos theory in

earthquake forecasting. Earth Science (ES.8);
Fractals (2.34, 6.32, 6.35)

2,5,6

Student
Project and
Rubric

1. Media players and Internet access. (QuickTime, Flash, and Real players
are needed to display videos & animations in this presentation; Internet
connection is needed for the hyperlinks in Slides 47 and 50.)
2. Check hyperlinks
Check PowerPoint hyperlinks to videos and animations, and re-link them if
necessary.
3. Quake Quiz
Parts 1 & 2 of the Quake Quiz may be printed as a double-sided sheet or as 2
sheets stapled together. Students should complete the separate parts in the

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appropriate segment of the lesson, as indicated in the PowerPoint. Because the

answers to Part 1 are provided and discussed at length in the PowerPoint, the
teachers Answer Key contains only Part 2.
4. Random number generation with calculators
As explained in the notes for the BingoQuake! Activity and in Slide 58, there
are several options for calculating random number with a graphing calculators
If students are already proficient in the use of graphing calculators, have them
follow the procedure in the Instructions for Cellular Automata BingoQuakes
handout, to set up the calculators to generate random numbers between 1 and
25. This will provide the students an excellent opportunity to practice
calculators. If the students are unfamiliar with graphing calculators, it is
recommended that one of the remaining options pre-programming prior to
the lesson or creating a permanent program be used.
4. Student teams and division of tasks in BingoQuake activity. As
emphasized in the notes for Slide 59, this exercise works best if one team
member, the Stats Keeper, keeps count of the years, between successive
BingoQuakes, i.e., how many times the Enter button on the calculator is
pressed. The Stats Keeper should also record information years & magnitude
on the Stats Sheet. The other team member, the Quake Keeper, makes the
marks in the bingo squares, erases and moves marks when there is an
earthquake, keeps count of how many squares are cleared out for each quake
(i.e., the magnitude), and reports the magnitude to the Stats Keeper.
References

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program

The national nerve center for earthquake information, this program monitors
and records information about worldwide earthquake activity, conducts
research on earthquakes, and provides a variety of information to scientists,
decisionmakers and the general public. Many maps, data collections, and
publications are of interest for students and teachers.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
Great California Shakeout
This site and a related site at the U.S. Geological Survey provide a wealth of
information, animations, videos, links, and educational materials developed as
part of a large, successful earthquake preparedness drill in Southern California
(although the material is useful for anyone interested in earthquakes.
http://www.shakeout.org/ and http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/
Earthscope
Funded by the National Science Foundation, this interdisciplinary collaborative
effort among various researchers across the U.S. is aimed at understanding
dynamic processes in Earths interior, with major focus on earthquakes & plate
tectonics instrumentation, data collection, mapping and visual
representations, scientific modelling, educational programs. A section devoted
to Learning Earthscope Science (http://www.earthscope.org/eno/products)
contains materials that interpret the research being done for educational

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audiences. This section includes classroom exercises and materials, teachable

moments, one-page research summaries, links to research projects, and
interactions with EarthScope scientists and staff. The section is in continual
development, and new information and links are frequently posted.
http://www.earthscope.org/home
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory QuakeSim Program
This program is developing simulation and analysis tools to study the physics
of earthquakes. The site contains helpful animations, pictures, and links to
research on earthquake forecasting.
http://quakesim.jpl.nasa.gov/
Make A Quake
In this interactive earthquake simulator game, the player chooses the type of
earth material in the area, the type of quake-proofing construction technology
for building, and the intensity of shaking and then observes how well the
building fares.
http://dsc.discovery.com/guides/planetearth/earthquake/interactive/interactive.h
tml
Virtual Earthquake
Interactive exercise illustrates how seismic waves are used to determine the
magnitude of an earthquake and to locate its epicenter.
http://www.sciencecourseware.org/eec/Earthquake
World Series Earthquake
Focused on 1989s destructive earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region, this
site contains photos and an interactive exercise for locating an earthquake
epicenter.
http://www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/content/investigations/es1
003/es1003page01.cfm
Integrating Liberal Arts Math and Environmental Science
This workshop document, authored by Dr. Greg Langkamp and Dr. Joe Hull of
Seattle Central Community College, contains the basic BingoQuakes exercise
as well as additional, more advanced mathematical applications involving
earthquake forecasting.
http://www.amatyc.org/publications/Electronicproceedings/Toronto/Langkamp/EnvironmentalMathematics.pdf
Bak, Per (1996), How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized
Criticality; Copernicus (Springer-Verlag), New York. Written by he
discoverer of self-organized criticality, this book describes for general readers
a concept that has become increasingly important in science. Many seemingly
disparate aspects of the world, from earthquakes to the formation of the
landscape to the process of evolution, all share a set of simple, easily described
properties--which may be explained as manifestations of a single principle.

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NOAA Science on a Sphere

Developed by the U.S. National Oceanographic & Atmospheric
Administration, this educational tool helps illustrate global patterns for various
earth science topics. Includes a link for helpful animations of earthquakes,
plate tectonics, hurricanes, etc.
http://sos.noaa.gov/download/
MathScience Innovation Center
Information on educational programs available to students, teachers and school
divisions and procedures for registering for programs.
http://www.msinnovation.info/sch/class_lesson.htm
MathScience Innovation Center: On-Line Educational Programs
Learn through on-line virtual classrooms, web-based lessons and on-line
courses. Access proven lesson plans and instructional modules.
http://mathinscience.info

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