Congo REpUBLIC

2014

Nouridine Kane Dia / n.dia@afdb.org

Ginette Mondongou Camara / ginette.mondongou-camara@undp.org

www.africaneconomicoutlook.org

Congo Republic

CONGO REPUBLIC
Lower oil production the economys main driver and weaker domestic demand
caused growth to weaken to 3.4% in 2013.
Structural and social reforms have made progress but not fast enough for Congo to
reach its goals of economic transformation.
Although the country is rich in natural resources, which give it a substantial
comparative advantage in integration into global value chains (GVCs), Congos role in
international production networks is mainly confined to the export of primary inputs
because of substantial structural obstacles.

Overview
Congos performance and economic outlook remain generally satisfactory, but structural
change is still a major challenge. Real gross domestic product (GPD) growth fell to 3.4% in 2013,
compared to 3.8% in 2012, as a result of falling oil production due to ageing oil wells. Even so, GDP
growth ought to be 6.1% in 2014 and 6.5% in 2015. This macroeconomic outlook is supported by
continuing state investment, the entry into production of mines, and the vigour of the non-oil
sector. Inflation, thought to be 2.9% in 2013, should stay below the regional convergence level of
3% until 2015, thanks to a careful monetary and fiscal policy. The budget and the current account
were in surplus in 2013, at 12.1% and 4.9% respectively, and should consolidate in 2014-15. But the
biggest challenge is still that of transforming the economy with a view to enhancing significantly
the impact of growth on social indicators.
Not only has growth been inadequate over recent years and not inclusive enough to greatly
reduce poverty, there has been no deep structural change in the economy. Though poverty fell
from 50.7% in 2005 to 46.5% in 2011, it is still high for a medium-income country. Unemployment
too is still high, especially among young people aged from 15 to 29, for whom it reaches 25%. A
speeding up of the reform programme, particularly in key areas such as the private investment
environment, skills acquisition and infrastructure as well as managing public finances, is crucial
for meeting these challenges. Moreover, these reforms are vital if Congo is to play a bigger part in
GVCs, a role that is currently limited despite the countrys major assets.
Apart from oil and sugar, Congo has not been very active in GVCs. The countrys main activity
in GVCs has been mostly confined to exporting primary inputs. Finished goods, mainly refined oil
products, account for no more than 5% of total exports. With respect to forestry, where there is an
undoubted comparative advantage, the share of timber production with high added value stands
at just 3%. Congos integration into GVCs runs up against failing infrastructure in terms of decent
transport and availability of energy; the lack of a qualified workforce; the lagging technological
and productive capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and an uncongenial
business climate. To remove these obstacles, the government, through its National Development
Plan (NDP) 2012-16, is stressing: i)increasing infrastructure investment and skills acquisition;
ii)improving the business climate; iii)improving access to credit for SMEs; iv)setting up special
economic zones (SEZs); and v)strengthening regional integration.

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Congo Republic

Figure 1. Real GDP growth

Central Africa (%)

Real GDP growth (%)

Africa (%)

%
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013(e)

2014(p)

2015(p)

Source: AfDB, Statistics Department AEO. Estimates (e); projections (p).

Table 1. Macroeconomic indicators

2012

2013(e)

2014(p)

2015(p)

Croissance du PIB

3.8

3.4

6.1

6.5

Taux de croissance du PIB rel par habitant

1.1

0.7

3.4

3.8

Inflation

4.7

2.9

2.5

2.5

Solde budgtaire (% PIB)

15.3

12.1

10.5

12.1

Compte courant (% PIB)

-1.3

4.9

4.2

2.0

Source: Data from domestic authorities; estimates (e) and projections (p) based on authors' calculations.

Recent developments and prospects

Congos economic growth fell back slightly in 2013 because of adverse internal conditions. Real
GDP growth slowed from 3.8% in 2012 to 3.4% in 2013. This slight fall was due to underperformance
by the oil sector, resulting from the declining performance of ageing oil wells as well as weaker
domestic demand after an exceptional rise in public expenditure in 2012, by way of a governmental
budgetary response to the explosion of an armed forces munitions depot on 4March 2012.
This underperformance was compensated for, up to a point, by the good performance of the
non-oil sector, driven by activity in the building and public works sector, telecommunications,
agriculture and fisheries. The recent economic performance in Congo took place against a
background where inflation was under control. Thanks to a prudent monetary policy implemented
by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), inflation was brought down from 4.7% in 2012 to
2.9% in 2013.
Aware of the need to build on past achievements in terms of macroeconomic stabilisation,
the government tightened its fiscal policy in 2013, after a steep rise in public expenditure over
the last two years. This realignment enabled the non-oil deficit to be brought down from 62.9% of
non-oil GDP in 2012 to 43.5% in 2013. With regard to the countrys external position, the current
account balance of payments deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2012 became a surplus of 4.9% in 2013
through a fall in imports, which had risen considerably in 2012 to deal with damage caused by the
explosion of the munitions depot. While debt easing through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
(HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) reduced the countrys external

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Congo Republic

debt considerably, it has risen again relatively quickly over the last few years, from 19% of GDP
in 2010, to 23% in 2011 and 25% in 2013, showing increased use of external borrowing. Rising
external debt reflects disbursements under a bilateral agreement with China, signed in 2006.
Moreover, the government signed a new co-operation agreement with China in 2013 to the value
of USD1billion. However, a debt sustainability analysis, undertaken in 2013 by the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, shows the risk of debt distress to be low.
The international environment has certainly been an important factor in recent developments
in Congos economy, but the implementation of substantial economic and structural reforms also
played an important part. In particular, internal and external balances have been maintained
by a more rigorous conduct of economic policy and the pursuit of structural reforms within the
economic and financial programme underpinned by the IMFs Extended Credit Facility (ECF).
Also, Congos efforts to improve the management and transparency of extractive resources,
especially a functioning certification system, and annual publication and reconciliation of all
government income from mining, meant that in February 2013 it fulfilled the requirements of
the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Prudent budget management and large
external reserves earned Congo a B+/B rating with a stable outlook and Ba3 awarded in October
2013 by Standard & Poors and Moodys respectively. However, the overall reform process, which
has slowed down since the end of the IMF-supported programme, needs to be speeded up to
bring about the far-reaching economic change needed to increase the impact of growth on the
countrys social indicators.
Over the last few years, growth has not been inclusive and did not come with noteworthy
structural changes. Though it fell from 50.7% in 2005 to 46.5% in 2011, the rate of income poverty
is still high for a country with a per capita income of USD 2300, above similar oil-exporting
countries. Unemployment, too, remains high affecting 16% of the working population and 25%
of young people aged 15 to 29, according to an inquiry into employment and the informal sector
undertaken in 2010. Congo also lags behind in reaching Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
Social indicators point up the challenges the country needs to meet to benefit from its potential
and its favourable economic outlook.

Table 2. GDP by sector (percentage)

2008

2013

Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing

4.3

4.5

of which fishing

0.4

0.4

Mining

67.6

64.6

of which oil

67.6

64.6

Manufacturing

4.1

4.4

Electricity, gas and water

0.7

0.7

Construction

3.1

3.8

Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants

6.0

6.9

Transport, storage and communication

4.5

5.1

Finance, real estate and business services

5.4

5.4

Public administration, education, health and social work,

community, social and personal services

4.3

4.6

100

100

of which hotels and restaurants

Other services
Gross domestic product at basic prices / factor cost
Source: Data from domestic authorities.

Though the above are good, economic change is still Congos biggest challenge. GDP growth
should reach 6.1% in 2014 and 6.5% in 2015. This macroeconomic outlook rests on a continued
programme of public investment in order to improve the countrys economic infrastructure,
through increased building, public works, telecommunications and a cautious start in mining
production. Inflation should be brought below the regional convergence threshold of 3% by 2015

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Congo Republic

as the effects of increased public expenditure in 2012 wear off. Thanks to the tightening of fiscal
policy, the primary non-oil deficit ought to be kept at 37% of non-oil GDP over 2014/15. However,
the economys exposure to oil prices, falling world demand, the slowdown in the reform process
following the IMF-supported programme and a worsening socio-political situation in the subregion are all risks. But the countrys biggest challenge is still the diversification of the economy,
a prerequisite for Congo to become an emerging economy by 2025. The economy still depends
heavily on oil, which accounts for 65% of GDP and 85% of exports, with very few linkages with other
sectors of the economy upstream or down. Structural change in Congo will require accelerated
reforms, especially in key areas such as the business environment, skills acquisition, improved
infrastructure and much greater efficiency in public investment. These reforms are also essential
for Congo to take its place in global value chains.

Macroeconomic policy
Fiscal policy
Following the NDP, fiscal policy in 2013 sought continued implementation of the public
investment programme aimed at economic change. After a one-off hike of over 70% in the
2012 supplementary budget, linked to the reconstruction of infrastructure destroyed in the
4March explosion, investment expenditure represented 17% of GDP in 2013. However, through
administrative deficiencies, actual expenditure fell short of what had been budgeted for. Also, the
inefficiency of public investment curtails its impact on growth and poverty reduction. Despite
steep rises in spending on infrastructure, Congos performance in this regard is weak, as the
countrys ranking in the World Bank and the IMFs Public Investment Management Index (PIMI)
reveal. The country ranked 151st out of 155 countries forinfrastructures in the 2012 logistic
performance index of the World Bank and 151st out of 152 countries according to the FMIs PIMI,
which reflects the quality of public investment.
The gap between the quality of infrastructure and the resources deployed is due to poor
governance, corruption and lack of technical ability. For this reason, improving assessment
and execution of projects and fighting corruption are continuing challenges, which need to be
addressed urgently. Following the tightening of fiscal policy, the primary non-oil deficit was
brought down from 63% of non-oil GDP in 2012 to 43.5% in 2013. Fiscal policy should stay prudent
in 2014 and 2015. The introduction in 2013 of a basic fiscal rule providing for the allocation of
XAF1500billion of oil receipts to public expenditure, the remainder being a reserve, alongside
the countrys substantial reserves, should hold fiscal policy steady.

Table 3. Public finances (percentage of GDP)

2005

2010

2011

2012

2013(e)

2014(p)

2015(p)

38.8

36.7

41.4

45.9

44.4

42.7

41.5

Tax revenue

6.7

7.3

7.9

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.6

Oil revenue

31.8

28.9

32.7

36.3

33.8

32.0

30.7

Total expenditure and net lending (a)

23.2

21

25.4

30.5

32.3

32.1

29.3

Current expenditure

17.9

11.2

9.9

14.3

15.4

15.2

13.2

13.0

10.2

9.7

14.1

15.1

15.0

13.1

Total revenue and grants

Excluding interest
Wages and salaries

4.0

3.0

3.0

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.4

Interest

4.9

1.0

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

5.3

9.8

15.5

16.3

17.0

16.9

16.1

Primary balance

Capital expenditure

20.5

16.7

16.2

15.5

12.4

10.7

12.3

Overall balance

15.6

15.7

16.0

15.3

12.1

10.5

12.1

Note: a. Only major items are reported.

Source: Data from domestic authorities; estimates (e) and projections (p) based on authors' calculations.

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The government has pursued tax reform to increase income, especially from sources other
than oil. The measures extend the tax base, reduce exemptions and strengthen collection. A
special tax on alcoholic drinks and tobacco was created in 2013. The list of taxpayers was updated,
increasing the number of those registered by 10% as of the beginning of 2013 and the exchange of
data on taxpayers between the revenue office and Treasury and customs services was improved.
These measures led to a slight increase in non-oil income as a proportion of GDP, from 9.5% in
2012 to 10.3% in 2013.

Monetary policy
Congos monetary and exchange policy is determined by its membership of the Economic
Community of Central African States (ECCAS). This is headed at a regional level by the Bank of
Central African States, which still aims for price stability through a fixed exchange rate of the
CFA franc (XAF) and the euro, and through keeping the zones medium-term inflation rate to
3%. Demand is generally adequate with the maintenance of internal and external equilibrium.
Money supply rose by 21% in 2013 and the currencys value appreciated by 3.8% as the euro rose
against the dollar and oil prices increased. Thanks to prudent fiscal policy, and as the effects of
the increase in public expenditure worked through the system and then fell in 2013, as well as
to improved availability of foodstuffs at the end of the year, inflation fell from 4.7% in 2012 to
2.9% en 2013, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). There being no great risk of
returning inflation, and so as to boost economic growth in the ECCAS zone, the Bank of Central
African States (BCAS/BEAC) reduced its key lending rate (tender rate) first from 4% to 3.5% in
July 2013, then to 3.25% in October 2013. These policies in respect of overall demand do not seem
to have been to have had a crowding out effect on the private sector. Lending to the private
sector rose by 27% in 2013, driven by the accumulation of public deposits in the banking system.
However, the share of lending going to the private sector remains low, at 10% of GDP, because of
the limitations of legal proceedings in financial sector cases and dysfunctional management of
property rights. For this reason, most investment in the country is made by the state (71%). In the
medium term, the maintenance of the central banks conservative fiscal policy, and of the states
moderate monetary policy, should hold inflation down to 2.5% in 2014 and 2015.

Economic co-operation, regional integration and trade

Congos trade policy, as a member of ECCAS, is largely determined by its membership of the
regional customs union. Congo applies the ECCAS customs code and ECCAS rules with respect to
the common external tariff and general preferential tariff introduced in 1993. The ECCAS tariff
nomenclature has four bands, from 5% to a maximum of 30%, with intermediate levels of 10%
and 20%. Congo observes article VIII of the IMF on current international transactions. The tariff
structure is fairly transparent and predictable, and there are no formal non-tariff barriers, even
if the export or import of certain products, such as mineral water, sugar, flour and rice, needs a
licence.
Congos foreign trade is dominated by oil, which accounts for 85% of exports. Because of this
dependence on oil, the slowdown in production as wells grow old, together with that of timber
exports, caused a fall in exports of 4.5% of GDP. However, the global economic upturn and the
bringing into production of substantial deposits of iron ore in 2014, and potassium in 2015, should
help increase exports. Mining ought also to attract greatly increased foreign direct investment
(FDI). Around 4billion dollars of investment are expected for the prospecting and the development
of potassium and copper deposits. Imports rose slightly by 0.2% in 2013, reflecting the continuing
programme of public expenditure. Nevertheless, given the grip kept on oil revenue, the bottom
line of the balance of payments current account remained in surplus. In terms of geographical
distribution, Congos foreign trade is still dominated by Europe and Asia, while trade in the subregion is still weak. Less than 7% of Congos non-oil exports go to other ECCAS countries. Poor
progress in trade integration is due to delays in policy harmonisation among the states and poor
services in infrastructure and trade facilitation.

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2005

2010

2011

2012

2013(e)

2014(p)

2015(p)

Trade balance

56.6

49.6

47.8

43.3

38.7

36.0

33.7

Exports of goods (f.o.b.)

78.0

77.5

78.3

75.1

70.6

67.5

65.8

Imports of goods (f.o.b.)

21.4

27.9

30.4

31.7

31.9

31.4

32.1

Services

-19.7

-24.7

-21.5

-18.7

-17.5

-15.8

-15.8

Factor income

-25.9

-18.6

-18.7

-23.2

-14.2

-13.9

-13.8

0.5

-2.5

-2.0

-2.7

-2.0

-2.2

-2.2

11.5

3.8

5.7

-1.3

4.9

4.2

2.0

Current transfers
Current account balance

Congo Republic

Table 4. Current account (percentage of GDP)

Source: Data from the Central Bank and domestic authorities; estimates (e) and projections (p) based on authors'
calculations.

Debt policy
Debt easing through Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives
reduced the public foreign debt considerably even if the recent increase in borrowing is a big
risk. Foreign debt fell from 59.3% of GDP in 2008 to 19% in 2010 when the initiatives reached
completion. But it has risen quickly since, reaching 25% in 2013. A debt sustainability analysis,
undertaken in 2013 by the IMF and the World Bank, shows the risk of debt distress to be low.
It shows, too, that the determinants of the debt are robust enough to withstand most shocks
thanks to the substantial cash reserves of the BEAC. Its conclusions are confirmed by the
ranking B+/B with a stable outlook and Ba3 awarded in October 2013 by Standard & Poors and
Moodys respectively for Congos long-term and short-term foreign-currency debt. Both agencies
note the high level of foreign-exchange reserves as well as the countrys solid growth outlook,
underpinned in the medium term by mining, but they highlight doubts over the 2016 elections
and a long-term fall in the production of basic goods. Thanks to substantial repayments on
the part of the government to suppliers, internal public debt, made up of commercial privatesector debt and back payments of salaries and pensions in restructured state enterprises, fell
slightly from 6.6% of GDP in 2012 to 6.4% in 2013. The legal framework for public debt and its
management is well defined. It designates the Ministry of the Economy, of Finance, of the Plan,
of the Public Purse and Integration as the only entity authorised to contract new loans on behalf
of the state. The Ministrys Caisse congolaise damortissement (sinking fund) manages public debt.
Much progress has been made insuring statistics on debt and its management are complete.
The sinking fund has a computer debt-management programme (Debt Management Financial
Accounting System, DEMFAS). It provides complete data on outstanding foreign debt, including
late payments and their make-up. It also gives detailed forecasts on servicing the debt as well as
statistics on internal public debt. Details of the amount of foreign debt and forecasts on servicing
it are published every quarter on the Ministry of Finance website. However, there is no complete
centralised database of the expenditure of publicly owned companies to check the reconciliation
of accounts. The sinking funds capacity for analysis needs strengthening.

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Congo Republic

Figure 2. Stock of total external debt (percentage of GDP)

and debt service (percentage of exports of goods and services)
Outstanding debt (public and private) /GDP

Debt service/Exports

120
100
80
60
40
20
0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: IMF (WEO & Article IV).

Economic and political governance

Private sector
Progress has been made in improving the business climate, but the private-investment
environment is still complicated and unattractive. After the restructuring in 2012 of the Centre de
formalits des entreprises (CFE business start-up centre), a one-stop office for business registration,
and the reduction of start-up costs, the following measures were taken in 2013: i)corporation
tax came down from 34% in 2012 to 30% from 2014; ii)the setting up of a one-stop customsclearance office; and iii)the setting up of a national land-registry fund. Despite all this, the Congo
private investment study commissioned by the AfDB in 2012 highlighted extensive constraints
in the promotion of a dynamic private sector. The areas in urgent need of reform include the
simplification of setting up businesses, offering tax incentives and simplifying tax payment,
enhancing legal provisions and easier access to credit. These weaknesses explain Congos poor
showing in the World Banks Doing Business 2014 report (185th out of 189 countries). The number
of days needed to get a business going is 101 compared to 29.7 in sub-Saharan Africa. Although
Congo is up three places in the Doing Business 2014 rankings for tax payment, administrative costs
are still high for enterprises, which must on average devote over 600 hours a year to the payment
of 49 taxes. Because of inefficiencies in the legal system, legal uncertainty is a major hindrance,
as Congo comes 157th under the investment protection heading in the Doing Business 2014 report.
Even if labour costs are not among the worst constraints for the private sector, skills shortages,
resulting from the mismatch between the education system and the needs of the economy, are
a serious handicap to the areas identified by the government in order to diversify. Congo has put
a lot of money into infrastructure over the last six years, but the shortcomings in this area are
still great. According to the AfDBs index of infrastructure development in Africa, Congo ranks
36th. The infrastructure deficit is most marked in energy and transport. This is a major obstacle
to increasing its advantage in GVCs.

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Congo Republic

Competition has improved for some productive sectors, in particular telecommunications

where there are four private operators, and banking where the number of banks went up from
four in 2007 to ten in 2013. On the other hand, electricity and water provision, and rail transport
are still state monopolies.

Financial sector
The financial system is relatively healthy and little exposed to medium-term shocks. The most
important thresholds of solidity indicators for the financial sector are all reached by Congolese
banks, except the one concerning the concentration of risks, with the total of loans to a single
borrower reaching about 20% of the banks total loan portfolio. The proportion of non-performing
loans to all loans is 2.8% compared to 9% for ECCAS. The resilience of the financial sector is in
part due to improved prudential oversight of the Banking Commission of Central Africa (COBAC).
However, strengthened oversight by the financial system is hampered by COBACs lack of human
and monetary resources, considering the number of the countrys financial institutions. The
application of the restructuring plan for the state-owned Assurances et Rassurances du Congo
(ARC) put its finances back on a firm footing and returned it to profit in 2011. Information on
loans granted, costs and defaults improved, with the strengthened role of the Balance Sheet
Centre (Centrale des Bilans) and the Central Credit Bureau (Bureau Central du Crdit). However, the
application of the institutional and regulatory framework for financial services, governed in large
part by regionally based financial institutions, and the supervision of microfinance institutions
both need tightening.
Despite the increase in the number of banks from four in 2007 to ten in 2013 and the substantial
potential to fund the economy, the financial sector is under-developed. The total assets of Congos
banks represent 21% of GDP and the financial markets of the sub-region are also modest in size.
With a financial depth ratio of 10% in 2012, Congo is among those lagging furthest behind in the
main financial development indicators despite banks excess liquidity. Microfinance has not yet
taken off. There are 30 approved microfinance establishments, chief among them the Mutuelles
congolaises dpargne et de crdit (MUCODEC), with deposits and loans of XAF160 and XAF46billion
respectively, about 84% and 87% of microfinance totals. Loans and deposits in the sector account
for 9.1% and 14.4% of the financial system, respectively. The weakness of the financial sector is
reflected in the limited access to financial services, which is an especially severe obstacle for
SMEs, only 13% of which have a loan or a credit line. This poor performance explains how Congo
lost four places in the Doing Business rankings access-to-credit indicator, falling from 105th place
to 109th between 2012 and 2013.

Public sector management, institutions and reform

The government has begun far-reaching reforms to improve governance in the public sector
but progress is slow. In infrastructure, major institutional and regulatory reforms have been
set in train over the last few years, especially the creation of the Electricity Sector Regulatory
Agency and the adoption of a legal and regulatory framework for telecommunications. However,
the satisfactory implementation of these reforms is hindered by an insufficiency of human
and financial resources in the newly created structures. As far as management of state-owned
resources is concerned, management of oil resources was strengthened, allowing Congo to be
recognised as fulfilling the requirements of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)
in February 2013, the only country in central Africa to be so recognised. Lastly, the authorities
have also started work on a fiscal responsibility bill, which ought to come before parliament in
the course of 2014, as well as efforts to implement fully ECCAS directives on the management of
public finances.

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Still, the efficiency of the provision of public services is limited by poor governance, corruption
and weaknesses in human and institutional capacities. In particular, technical ability in the
management of public expenditure is lacking and this goes some way to explain the inefficiency
of investments made. Thus, the high level of corruption, as shown by the perception of corruption
index ranking of 2.2 out of 10 for Congo, which comes 154th out of 177 countries, according to the
2013 Transparency International report, leads to large losses of public money, which produces a
gap between current infrastructure provision and the level of resources committed. Accordingly
the effectiveness of public expenditure is still limited by poor delivery, which is also a sign of
governance and capacity difficulties. Lastly, the management of semi-state enterprises and their
regulatory framework are ineffective. The deficiencies explain in part why Congo is ranked in
the bottom 11% for government efficiency in the World Banks governance indicators for 2012.

Natural resource management and environment

National legislation on the forest environment sector is fairly exhaustive. It consists of texts
on the protection of the environment, the forestry code, land ownership, fauna and protected
areas. The law on protection of the environment is being revised to build in guarantees of the
economic, ecological and social sustainability of natural resources and take into account new
environmental problems. The government has drafted new environmental impact regulations.
It is also giving effect to the Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) with the European Union
in the implementation of the Forest Law for Enforcement, Governance and Trade, FLEGT, which
guarantees the legality of all timber exports. Since January 2012 Congo has been a member of
the global gas-flaring reduction partnership, showing efforts at improving energy efficiency
and reducing emissions linked to oil extraction. Congo enjoys support from the UN Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) programme to get best value
from its REDD + potential and the opportunities for financing this environmental service. The
ministries involved in the management of land and natural resources (forests, environment,
agriculture, land-ownership reform, energy, mines, land use, plan, tourism, etc.) each have a
policy contributing to the sustainable management of forest ecosystems but the main difficulty
is the failure to apply these because of the lack of human and material resources. Further efforts
are needed to ensure regulations and laws are enforced. In particular, regulation is limited by
deficient institutional capacity, especially in the Ministry of the Environment and the forestry
administration.

Political context
Presidential and legislative elections were held in 2009 and 2012 respectively. Local elections
scheduled for 2013 were postponed. The way they are to be organised is dividing opinion among
the political class. In March 2013, the government and the moderate opposition attempted dialogue
through the Dolisie meeting, which reached a consensus on the following recommendations:
i)the organisation of a special administrative census, which got under way in August 2013; ii)the
creation of a permanent, independent and autonomous entity tasked with the organisation of
elections; iii)a law on campaign finance; iv)the enforcement of the law governing political parties;
and v)the introduction of biometric voters cards with a photograph.
Another major event was the holding in August 2013 of the trial of those suspected of causing
the explosion of the munitions depot in 2012. The court did not uphold the charges against them
and for the most part they received suspended sentences. However, the heavy-handed arrest in
December 2013 of a colonel implicated in the events led to shooting between a hundred or so of
his supporters and the forces of law and order, leaving several dead or wounded.
The socio-political context was also marked by salary claims by teachers, leading the
government to open negotiations with the social partners in April 2013 and to commit itself to an
overall revision of the status of the civil service, and to adoption of a new salary index from 2014.

10

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Congo Republic

Finally, ten newspapers were stopped from appearing for several months in 2013, three papers
having been treated the same way in 2012. These suspensions illustrate that further progress is
needed to strengthen press freedom.

Social context and human development

Building human resources
Much effort has gone into improving services but its impact is insufficient. The education
budget has risen by 17% over the last three years, so enrolment went up from 86.5% in 2005 to
89.5% in 2011 and an increase in the primary completion rate from 67.6% to 85% in the same
period (third MDG follow-up report, 2013). Despite the states funding efforts, the Congolese
school system is deemed to be underperforming. A study by the Ministry of Primary Education
and Literacy shows the pupil-retention rate fell from 86.7% in 2005 to 72.5% in 2011 because of
increased numbers of pupils repeating a year or giving up. Performance in the sector is further
limited by non-availability of school places, and the inadequacy and unfair distribution of
teaching staff. For these reasons, Congo is not able to achieve the MDG of primary education for
all. Progress is also slow in professional training, which seriously hampers the private sector.
Though just 25% of enterprises polled attribute recruitment difficulties to regulation, 51% of them
think skills shortages are a major obstacle.
In healthcare, unlike education, spending has stagnated over the last three years, but is still
high, at XAF179billion in the 2014 budget. Current programmes provide essential care but the
overall results of the system are not satisfactory, reflecting a poor level of human resources,
inadequate infrastructure, poor-quality care and the cost of healthcare provision. Still, measles
vaccination cover went up from 67% to 78% between 2008 and 2011, while the incidence of HIV/
AIDS fell from 2.2% in 2003 to 1.7% in 2009. Thanks to the introduction of free malaria treatment,
the number of cases notified fell by 57% from 2011 to 2012. However, with maternal mortality at
426 deaths per 100000 live births and infant mortality at 68 deaths per 1000live births, Congo has
some of the weakest health indicators in comparable countries. Nearly a quarter of children are
affected by chronic malnutrition. As a result, achieving MDGs except those relating to HIV/AIDS
and malaria, will be very difficult because of a lack of financial, material and human resources,
the high level of poverty and lack of co-ordination in the national response.

Poverty reduction, social protection and labour

In line with its poverty-reduction strategy, the government has continued to devote a
considerable proportion of its budget to pro-poor spending, especially in water, energy and
education. Pro-poor spending has risen steadily from 6.4% of GDP in 2008 to 8.5% in 2013. But
spending has increased less in health and agriculture. The authorities are also intervening in
favour of the poor and vulnerable. This action consists in providing free caesarean sections,
vaccines, anti-retrovirals, the abolition of school fees, provision of free school books and school
canteens. However, the efficiency of public expenditure is limited by a low delivery rate and poorquality public services, which, nationally lead to widespread poverty and big disparities between
urban and rural areas. The percentage of poor is 74.8% in rural areas as compared to 32.3% in
towns. Congo could well find it hard to meet MDG 1 in 2015.
The national social protection system is limited to the provisions of the civil-service retirement
fund (Caisse de retraite des fonctionnaires CRF) and the national social security fund (Caisse nationale de
scurit sociale CNSS) and only covers 15% of the population, largely those paid in the formal sector
while those living in rural areas and those working in the informal sector are excluded. Moreover,
it should be stressed that the level and quality of provision is poor. Given the growing number
not covered by social security, the state has for some years provided safety nets for vulnerable
groups. Labour-intensive works and self-employment programmes as well as an initiative to

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promote rural employment are being rolled out. To date, close to 8600people have benefited
from these programmes. Cash transfer schemes for poor and vulnerable households are being
delivered and should be extended. These safety nets also include the reduction of, or exemption
from, school fees and hospital charges in public hospitals and a social reinsertion fund to help
the poor set up their own economic activities, and give easier access to microcredit. However,
the extent and level of these resources remain insufficient to provide adequate protection to
the most vulnerable groups. For example, the budget allotted to the Ministry of Social Affairs
Humanitarian Action and Solidarity is not more than 1.0% of total public spending. To this must
be added delays obtaining funds budgeted for, which are a major obstacle to the smooth delivery
of programmes. The targeting and evaluation of the efficiency and impact of programmes are
weak.
Although the regulation of the labour market is not seen by the private sector as a major
constraint, it strikes a relatively unsatisfactory balance between social protection and job
creation, and is poorly enforced. Private operators feel the labour code offers good protection and
cover to workers but leaves little leeway to employers in hiring, organising work and dismissing.
However, it should be pointed out that the extent of this regulation is limited insofar as it only
affects the quarter of the active working population engaged in the formal sector. There continue
to be training programmes for workers, but they are not widespread.

Gender equality
Despite the ratification nationally of most of the international and regional instruments on
gender equality and equity, there are still big differences between the lives of men and women.
With a gender inequality index of 0.610, Congo is ranked 132nd out of 186countries according to the
2013 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Thanks
to the governments policy on free primary education, the girl/boy parity index at primary level
rose from 0.89 in 2008 to 0.97 in 2011, going from 0.69 to 0.78 over the same period at secondary
level. The gap widens greatly at university level, where the equality index is no more than 0.4.
Great differences can be seen in participation in the labour market and access to commercial
property. Only about 17% of businesses are controlled by women. A greater proportion of them
work in jobs that are poorly paid or unpaid, such as agriculture, commerce and they are poorly
represented in administration (8.91%).
In politics and decision making, the quotas of a third and a fifth respectively suggested by
the African Union and the United Nations are not respected. In parliament, the proportion of
women stood at just 8.7% in 2013 compared to 7.3% during the 2007 legislature. There are only
four women among 38 ministers in the present government. The government adopted a national
gender policy in 2008 and its action plan in 2009, and has set up an observatory to record and
combat violence against women and children the great challenge still being the implementation
of these texts.

Thematic analysis: Global value chains and industrialisation in Africa

Although its wealth of natural resources gives it significant natural advantages in participating
in GVCs, Congos share in international production networks is still modest. The biggest sectors
are oil, timber and logs in GVCs and sugar in regional value chains. The countrys share in GVCs in
agriculture and services has been very slight. Aside from oil and sugar, the main contributions to
GVCs nationally have not changed much over the last decade and have been mostly limited to the
export of primary inputs. Finished products, mainly refined oil products, make up no more than
5% of overall exports. In the oil sector, apart from the extraction and export of crude, mainly to

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Europe and Asia, the other form of participation in GVCs is, at a marginal level, the sale of refined
petrol. The sugar industry is also relatively well integrated into regional value chains. Thanks to
the advantage afforded by its production of sugar cane, Congo has been able to take its place in
a regional value chain. Around 60% of production goes for export to ECCAS member countries
and to the United States in the framework of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
In respect of forestry, despite laws imposing a minimum local processing of 85%, production of
timber with high value added accounts for just 3%.
The impact of Congo in GVCs is not great. Oil exports have certainly been very conducive
to the countrys good economic performance over the last decade and oil income has provided
nearly 80% of overall state receipts, and served to finance a large part of public investment and
social expenditure. But the overall impact of oil on socio-economic indictors has been limited.
The economys dependence on the very capital-intensive oil sector has not favoured employment.
Moreover, because of the weak linkages between national enterprises and the foreign firms
exploiting resources, the countrys participation in GVCs has had no significant impact on
bolstering the capacities of local SMEs. The weak impact of GVCs in Congo contrasts with the
opportunities it possesses.
Congo has great potential for increasing its positioning in GVCs. Apart from oil and timber,
the country has substantial mineral and forestry resources, and good agricultural potential.
Improving the transformation of oil and timber provides, in the medium term, the potential for
increasing added value and creating jobs. There could also be sub-contracting to local SMEs in oil
and mining companies (building and public works, training, boiler-making, maintenance). The
countrys considerable mining potential should begin production in 2014, and also gives Congo
the possibility of a bigger role in GVCs, as well as the treatment of agricultural production and
agro-industry, in which the country has a certain comparative advantage. Finally, the countrys
strategic geographical position, with a coastline and a deep-water port, is a major advantage for
Congos SMEs in accessing regional and international markets. Despite the strong hand it holds,
Congos integration into GVCs is held back by major structural obstacles.
The main constraints hindering Congos wider participation in GVCs are the absence of quality
transport infrastructure, of adequate energy supply, the lack of skilled workers, of technological
capacity and an uncongenial business climate. Infrastructure shortcomings are specially marked
in the transport sector, with only 10% of roads paved and a dilapidated railway, and are a major
obstacle in accessing foreign markets. Moreover, despite increased energy production, the
unreliable electricity supply is one of the main factors weighing upon the competitiveness of the
Congolese economy and restricting foreign investment. Lack of infrastructure also stops Congo
from taking advantage of regional trade.
The underqualified available workforce and skills shortages are a further serious impediment
to Congos progress towards adding value in GVCs. The country is still confronting a major
challenge improving its technical and scientific education and strengthening its technological
abilities. Technical and professional training attracts fewer than 10% of pupils. The dearth of
skills, combined with an absence of investment in technology, prevents local enterprises from
improving their competitiveness and meeting quality norms of international markets. The serious
deficiencies in the business climate, as illustrated by Congos poor showing in the Doing Business
2014 ranking are a major hindrance to the private investment needed to transform the economy.
Knowing the opportunities GVCs can give Congo to speed up its industrial development, the
government wants, through its 2012-16 national development plan, to step up its efforts to create
conditions conducive to the countrys having a significant participation in GVCs. To this end, the
strategy identifies seven clusters, which should act as the principal vectors of Congos participation

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in GVCs. These include in particular agriculture and agro-business, forestry and timbers, oil and
hydrocarbons as well as mines. But optimal exploitation of these clusters necessitates certain
reforms and specific measures. In this regard, government is prioritising:i)increasing investment
to build competitive infrastructure; ii)speeding up the implementation of the action plan to
improve the business climate; iii)creating specialised institutes to meet the needs of sectors with
a high potential for creating added value. (the government has already set up specialised technical
and vocational training centres under 120 educators in 12 key areas); iv)increasing investment
in science and technology; and v)improving access to finance to support the development of
businesses productive capacity.
The authorities are also considering setting up four special economic zones, with the aim of
diversifying economic activity and exports and supporting integration into the global economy.
These zones, for which feasibility studies are complete, will be devoted to petrochemicals, mining,
timber and agro-business as well as transport, financial and logistical services. At the same time,
an agency for the promotion of investment and a fund to encourage, guarantee and support SMEs
have been created and ought soon to be operational. Finally, given that regional markets are very
important for Congo because of the small size of its economy and that they can assist the country
in joining GVCs quickly, the government intends to increase investment in building an efficient
regional infrastructure, to eliminate bottlenecks strangling regional integration and trade.

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