SIMULATION LAB ASSIGNMENT# 3| HEMANT KUMAR

SIMULATION LAB
Assignment #3: CRITICAL PATH THROUGH TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION
HEMANT KUMAR (14ID60R10)

STUDY OBJECTIVE
A Project with nine jobs is given; assuming that the actual duration follows triangular distribution, we have to
simulate the system for following:
Finding the probability that the project will be completed within 55 days.
Making 50 simulation runs.
Plotting frequency distribution and cumulative distribution graph for project completion time.

DATA COLLECTION METHOD

A-O-A network for the above problem (predecessor tables) would be:

The calculation for critical path will be according to this network dia.

DATA ANALYSIS METHOD

Parameters Considered For System Performance:

1) Generating random variable r for each job.

2) Considering a =TO (min time); b =TP (max time); c =TM (mode time).
If r <

Then , duration = a +

If r

Then, duration = b -

3) Finding Early Start (EF), Early Finish(EF), Latest Start(LS), Latest Finish(LF); with the help of duration time
and according to the CPM rules.
4) Finding slack, slack= LF-EF or LS-ES. If slack=0, it means that the respective job is in Critical Path.
5) The Critical Path time will be same as EF or LF, the path can be obtained by concatenating the jobs
whose slack is zero.
6) Doing 50 runs of the above procedures, i.e. from step 1 to step 5.
7) Finding out the descriptive statistics, frequency data and cumulative distribution data and plotting the
latter two.
8) With the help of cumulative distribution data, the probability that the project will be completed within
55 days can be found out using linear approximation.

SYNTAX/FORMULA USED FOR CALCULATING PARAMETERS

1) Random Number Generation = RAND() .
2) Duration = IF(rand_var<((TM-TO)/(TP-TO)),TO+SQRT((TP-TO)*(TM-TO)*rand_var),TP-SQRT((TP-TO)*(TPTM)*(1-rand_var))).

SIMULATION LAB ASSIGNMENT# 3| HEMANT KUMAR

3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)

ES = MAX(EF_of_predecessor).
EF = ES + duration.
LF = MIN(LS _of successor).
LS = LF duration.
Slack = LF EF.
Critical Path Jobs = IF(slack=0,job,"").
Critical Path Time = LF.
Critical Path = CONCATENATE(jobs).
50 simulation runs is done by using What-If function under DATA tab. The descriptive statistics,
frequency data and cumulative distribution data is obtained by using Data Analysis function Under DATA
tab.

OBSERVATIONS
Following data was observed:

Critical Path Time (of 50 runs) Mean = 52.334, Min = 41.497 and Max = 59.149 days.
Maximum frequency was 16 for CP time = 51.584 and minimum was 1 for CP time = 41.497,
44.018 and 46.540 days.

Most frequent critical path was = ABDFGHI (40).

Least frequent critical path was = ADCGHI (4)

INFERENCES
1) From the tables, it can be inferred that the most possible time for project completion is around
51.584 days.
2) The least possible time will be project getting completed within 46.540 days.
3) The most possible Critical Path would be ABDFGHI, with 0.8 probability.
4) The probability that the project will be completed within 55 days was found to be 75.10 %.
CRITICAL PATH TIME DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Sample Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
Largest(1)
Smallest(1)
Confidence Level(95.0%)

52.334
0.536
52.114
#N/A
3.788
14.347
0.795
-0.473
17.652
41.497
59.149
2616.714
50.000
59.149
41.497
1.076

CRITICAL PATH TIME

41.497
44.018
46.540
49.062
51.584
54.105
56.627
More

FREQUENCY
1
1
1
3
16
12
10
6

CUMULATIVE %
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
12.00%
44.00%
68.00%
88.00%
100.00%

CRITICAL PATH
ABDFGHI
ABEFGHI
ABCGHI

FREQUENCY
40
6
4
50

PROBABILITY
0.8
0.12
0.08
1

SIMULATION LAB ASSIGNMENT# 3| HEMANT KUMAR

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION PLOT FOR

PROJECT COMPLETION TIME
18

120.00%

16
100.00%
14

FREQUENCY

12

80.00%

10
60.00%
8
6

40.00%

4
20.00%
2
0

0.00%
41.497 44.018 46.540 49.062 51.584 54.105 56.627 More
CRITICAL PATH TIME

Frequency
Cumulative %