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1. Introduction
In many Austrian regions winter tourism is an important source of income. Therefore they are
highly dependent on satisfactory snow conditions. The lack of snow during several recent
winters provided many alpine ski destinations a first glimpse of the potential impacts of
climate change. The question arises, how different types of winter sport enthusiasts react to
changing skiing conditions caused by climate change and how attractive snow independent
substitutes might be. To pursue this question, a survey of Viennese skiers and boarders was
conducted with an online questionnaire. The application of a discrete choice experiment
secures an individual oriented approach that takes the preferences of skiers and boarders
into account and helps to identify the importance of a large set of attributes for the
destination choice process. The result of the inquiry aims to evaluate future options for winter
(sport) tourism management.
Winter tourism in the European Alps is highly dependent on snow based winter sport. At the
end of the 1980s, a period of several winters lacking snow gave the alpine communities a
first idea of what climate change could mean for regions dependent on winter sport tourism.
In the winter of 2006/2007, the tourism branch was confronted with a serious decline of
bookings of about 25 percent. The lack of snow at the preparation phase of one of the major
PAGE 36 j TOURISM REVIEW j VOL. 63 NO. 1 2008, pp. 36-47, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1660-5373 DOI 10.1108/16605370810861035
international ski events, the world cup races in Kitzbühl, lead to a large number of booking
cancellations. Although the organizers see the World Cup event still as a success, it must be
pointed out that profits declined from e24.6 million in 2006 to 2007 to e13.5 million
(Eisermann, 2007).
While scientists offer different views about the magnitude and the exact effects of climate
change, it is a fact that a change of climate is happening. This will modify the characteristics
and the quality of winter sport tourism. Climate change will affect the Austrian ski
destinations in different ways. According to Breiling (1993), especially the ski destinations in
lower lying areas of the Alps must anticipate negative effects on snow cover and ski quality.
Scientists are expecting a spatial and temporal concentration of ski activities in the future
(Abegg, 1996; Bürki, 2000).
Ski destinations can react with at least three different strategies:
1. adaptation measures to secure snow based winter sport tourism (e.g. artificial
snow-making, extensions in higher altitudes and expansion in glacier areas);
2. payment of compensation to clients in situations with insufficient snow (e.g. additional
winter activities) to maintain visitors’ loyalty; and
3. development of alternative tourism strategies (e.g. investment in 4-season-tourism
especially strengthening the summer season).
The development over the last decades shows some significant trends in winter sport
tourism. The number of repeat visitors and the length of stay decrease. The tourists are
willing to travel further to holiday destinations that can guarantee snow and have high quality
of accommodation and entertainment. The increasing skill levels of users, their ever
increasing demands on quality and their increasing travel expertise, combined with
improved transportation infrastructure have increased the mobility of winter sport tourists to
unprecedented levels.
Obviously, both the customers and the supply side are reacting to the changing conditions.
Several tourism studies focus on climate change impact assessment and adaptation
strategies for winter destinations, but only a select few consider the adaptation strategies of
winter tourists and the consequences for their activity and destination choice. This void is
surprising, as ultimately it is the preferences of the winter clients for ski destinations that will
determine the destinations’ future prospects; therefore, a demand oriented investigation
about preferences for various supply side variables is important. An integral component of
such a preference based evaluation should be the prospective success of compensation
measures which include adaptation behavior to secure snow, as well as the customer
acceptance of snow independent alternatives.
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destination choice of winter sport tourists is necessary to adapt their performance to tie
customers’ loyalty to attain their requirements for a satisfying experience.
3. Methods
This study uses a discrete choice experiments (DCE) to examine winter sport tourists’
preferences on ski destination performance intended to learn about the customer reaction
on changing winter sport conditions and to estimate the development prospect of different
kinds of destination in consequence of climate change. This study used an on-line survey
instrument to administer the DCE. Using the Internet allows a relative long and complex
survey and the opportunity to present the DCE in an attractive and entertaining way. It also
allows using complex filters in the questionnaire and to sample individual preferences. In the
questionnaire the DCE is combined with a standard questionnaire. The inquiry of active
skiers and boarders comprises the following topics:
B skiing biographies and reasons for changes in the destination choice;
B previous trip characteristics;
B tourists’ destination motivations;
B travel motives and the preferences in winter sport;
B destination choice determining attributes and the potentials of snow independent
substitutes (part of the DCE);
B expectations according to climate change; and
B socio-demographic characters of the respondent.
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evaluated as a whole, and random utility theory postulates that choices can be modeled as a
function of the attributes of the alternatives (Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). Random utility
models assume – according to the neoclassical economy theory – that decision-makers
have perfect discrimination capability. The utility is modeled as a random variable. Random
Utility Models model the factors that influence the destination choice of test persons. The
selection of one alternative over another implies that the utility of the chosen alternative is
higher than the other (McFadden, 1974).
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Figure 1 Sequences of DCE
The online survey was pretested and after some subsequent refinements a link to the final
web survey was sent to all recruited individuals in an email. A lottery was used as an
incentive to all survey participants. At the end, 538 questionnaires were completed, for a
return rate of 34,3 percent. The results were analyzed using LIMDEP 8.0 (Greene, 2002).
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Figure 2 Destination choice after several winters lacking snow
Several papers are dealing with new concepts to adapt the tourism in winter to the changing
snow conditions (Bürki and Elsasser, 2003; Neuhäuser, 2006). New strategies are proposing
the use of health and spa-facilities, cultural events and an enhanced service offer to
substitute the skiing activities.
Figure 3 shows that the main motives for tourists on winter holidays are the physical activity,
spending time with friends, and the winter experience. They are in general not willing to
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experiment with new activities (ice golf, horse riding etc.) or to join events, parties and an
intensive social or cultural offer. The main motives are in good agreement with the destination
choice determining aspects in Figure 4.
Here, the results of the inquiry show the importance of snow cover and winter experience.
Furthermore, the size of the ski-able area and the quality of the accommodation are
influencing factors in the decision making process and the selection of the preferred
destination.
Figure 5 shows the part-worth utilities for each of the attributes presented in the profiles of
step 1 of the DCE for all respondents. All attributes are significant on at least one level, and
the most important attributes are price and travel distance. The larger the size of the ski-able
area, the higher is the probability for the destination to be chosen. Also, the altitude of the
destination has a significant positive effect on the probability of choice. The higher the share
of slopes above an altitude of 1,200 m the more interesting is the destination. Winter sport
enthusiasts tended to prefer a destination with the opportunity to ski down to the bottom of
the valley. Areas with a high probability that a run down to the valley bottom is impossible
affect the choice negatively. Also short waiting time at the lifts and gondolas is an important
criterion for the attractiveness of a destination. Long waiting times are definitely not
acceptable.
The results of the choice model clearly show the preference for ski resorts located in high
altitude. Artificial snow, the amount of slopes where artificial snow ensures good winter sport
conditions, is not highly appreciated by the skiers. This seems to be accepted as a
necessity, rather than simply a positive attribute of a winter sport destination. Furthermore,
waiting time, the price level and accessibility in terms of travel time are crucial attributes for
the decision making process.
The analysis shows that the attractiveness of snow secure destinations is influenced by its
price and the travel time to get there, and most likely even more so a combination of both.
The skiers and borders seem to be very sensitive to the overall conditions. If the following
conditions would combine in one scenario, 70 to 85 percent of the skiers or borders would
quit the sport this year:
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Figure 5 Part worth utilities of ski destination attributes
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All results of the DCE and the revealed data show, the strong preferences for attribute levels
promising sufficient snow conditions in a winter sport destination. The winter sport tourists
are very sensitive towards travel time and travel distances. The DCE shows that the very
short and very long travel times have significant positive, and respectively negative effects
on the destination choice. The break even is at 5 hours. This finding is in agreement with the
actual travel times when asked for the acceptable travel distance to a ski destination for a
holiday trip. Only one third (36 percent) of the respondents stated that more than 500 km
would be acceptable to go for a winter sport holiday, while only 14 percent of respondents
traveled further than 500 km (Table I).
In the second stage of the choice experiment the skiers and borders furthermore were asked
under which conditions they would prefer and shift to a more snow secure ski resort which is
more expensive and further to travel. Almost half of the respondents (n ¼ 258) preferred the
snow sure alternative. It turned out that the majority accepts increasing cost of about 10
percent. Increasing costs of 20 percent are here the threshold value, where more than 50
percent would no longer choose the snow secure region (see Figure 6).
The influence of travel time is not as strong as the financial aspect. Here the threshold value
is about another three hour driving time, when 50 percent would no longer choose the snow
secure region. Increasing travel costs of 10 percent and parallel an increasing travel time of
two hours lead to less acceptance of the more snow secure destination.
Finally the respondents were asked whether they would shift back from the expensive snow
secure ski resort to a less secure resorts but with free extras. This choice should give insights
in the relevance of substitutes like child care or other improvement of services, wellness and
spa-facilities, which are perceived as crucial elements of adaptation strategies during the
winter season. Only 40 percent of the skiers shift back from snow secure ski resort to the less
snow secure Ski resort and its free additional offers. For about 60 percent of the respondents
Table I Acceptable travel distances for holidays and the effective travel distance of the last
holiday
Acceptable travel distance for holidays Effective travel distance last holiday
(%) (%)
Note: n ¼ 514
Figure 6 DCE results: relative relevance for ski destinations attributes in the trade off
between common ski destinations and ski destinations very sure of snow
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the substitutes are not relevant. They still prefer the snow secure ski resort. This result shows,
that the strategy proposed by many researchers and consultants to ensure the amount of
tourist in winter via additional offers and services will attract not even a half of the skiers.
6. Further research
Beside climate change, the tourism industry has to meet other challenges which may
influence its development, such as the structural change in agriculture and land use, new
target groups from China and Russia that are less focused on winter sport, the demographic
change characterized by an aging generation and changes in tourists’ attitudes. Tourists
become more flexible, more mobile and are much more focused on new experiences.
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Furtherresearchshouldconcentrateontheinterrelationshipbetweenallthesechallengesofthe
tourism sector, and not only on climate change. New visitors from other countries and new offers
for an aging society could also substitute the decline in winter. Therefore, structural,
demographic and achanging demand should beincludes in new concepts. Moreover, the local
population should be involved in this process. Methods to enhance the public awareness and to
start a communication process are needed.
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Corresponding author
Wiebke Unbehaun can be contacted at: wiebke.unbehaun@boku.ac.at
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