MasterThesis Daniel Horst

Performance Simulation For
Parabolic Trough Concentrating

Solar Power Plants And Export
Scenario Analysis For North Africa
By
Daniel Horst
A Thesis Submitted to the
Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University
in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirement for the Degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE
In
MECHANICAL POWER ENGINEERING
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, CAIRO UNIVERSITY

GIZA, EGYPT
2012

By
Daniel Horst
MASTER OF SCIENCE
In
Under Supervision of
Dr. Adel Kahlil
Dr.-Ing. Jrgen
Schmid
Professor
In Mechanical Power
Engineering
Department
Professor
In Electrical
Engineering
Department
Dr. Carsten Pape
Frauenhofer-Institute
for Wind Energy and
Energy System
Technology
Faculty of Engineering Faculty of Engineering

Cairo University
Kassel University

GIZA, EGYPT
2012

By
Daniel Horst
MASTER OF SCIENCE
In
Approved by the Examining Committee:
______________________________
Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil
______________________________________
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jrgen Schmid

_______________________________________
Dr. Hany Nokrashy

GIZA, EGYPT
2012
Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Abbreviations
List of Symbols
Abstract
1. Introduction .......................................................................................................1
1.1 Renewable Energy and Climate Change ...........................................................................................1
1.1.1 Solar technology..................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Parabolic trough technology .................................................................................................................... 3
1.2.1 Reflectors ................................................................................................................................................... 4
1.2.2 Absorber..................................................................................................................................................... 4
1.2.3 Tracking and controlling.................................................................................................................... 5
1.2.4 Heat transfer medium ......................................................................................................................... 5
1.2.5 Thermal storage ..................................................................................................................................... 6
1.3 Thesis objectives and outlines...............................................................................................................7
2. Theoretical performance calculation CSPP ..........................................................8

2.1 Geometrical relations ...............................................................................................................................8
2.1.1 Sun earth geometry .............................................................................................................................. 8
2.1.2 Sun collector geometry .................................................................................................................... 10
2.2 Solar filed ......................................................................................................................................................... 12
2.2.1 Optical losses ........................................................................................................................................ 12
2.2.2 Heat losses.............................................................................................................................................. 14
2.3 Thermal storage............................................................................................................................................ 15
2.3.1 Stratification Storage the Multi-Node-model........................................................................ 16
2.3.1 The Plug-Flow model ........................................................................................................................ 18
2.4 Power block .................................................................................................................................................... 19
2.4.1 Carnot Cycle........................................................................................................................................... 19
2.4.2 Clausius-Rankine Cycle .................................................................................................................... 21
2.4.3 Steam Turbine ...................................................................................................................................... 26
3. Recourse assessment for CSPP .........................................................................29

3.1 Land Recourse assessment ..................................................................................................................... 29
3.1.1 Slope.......................................................................................................................................................... 30
II
3.1.2 Land Cover ............................................................................................................................................. 31
3.1.3 Hydrology ............................................................................................................................................... 31
3.1.4 Geomorphologic features................................................................................................................ 32
3.1.5 Protected areas .................................................................................................................................... 33
3.1.6 Industry and Population.................................................................................................................. 33
3.1.7 Technical potential............................................................................................................................. 34
3.1.8 High voltage grid ................................................................................................................................. 36
3.2 MED-CSP Scenario CG/HE ....................................................................................................................... 37

3.2.1 Growth of population........................................................................................................................ 38
3.2.2 Growth of economy............................................................................................................................ 38
3.2.3 Electricity demand ............................................................................................................................. 39
3.2.4 Scenario for energy security ......................................................................................................... 40
3.3 Weather data.................................................................................................................................................. 42
3.3.1 Irradiation data sets .......................................................................................................................... 43
3.3.2 Ambient data sets ............................................................................................................................... 45
4. Simulation Program ..........................................................................................47

4.1 Program overview ....................................................................................................................................... 47
4.2 GIS database and scenario processing............................................................................................... 49
4.2.1 Scenario processing........................................................................................................................... 50
4.2.2 Side evaluation..................................................................................................................................... 51
4.2.3 Side depositing..................................................................................................................................... 54
4.3 CSP performance simulation .................................................................................................................. 56
4.3.1 Solar field simulation ........................................................................................................................ 56
4.3.2 Thermal storage simulation ......................................................................................................... 60
4.3.3 Power block simulation ................................................................................................................... 64
4.4 Curve fitting and ELCC calculation ...................................................................................................... 74
4.4.1 Least square optimization ............................................................................................................. 74
4.4.3 ELCC calculation ................................................................................................................................. 76
5. Export scenario 2050 ........................................................................................80

5.1 Scenario description................................................................................................................................... 80
5.1.1 Installed capacity and plant distribution ................................................................................ 80
5.1.2 Residual load curve............................................................................................................................ 81
5.1.3 Power plant park ................................................................................................................................ 84
5.2 Simulation results ....................................................................................................................................... 86
5.2.1 Simulation for SM1............................................................................................................................. 86
III
6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................94
6.1 Simulation program ................................................................................................................................... 94
6.2 Export Scenario ............................................................................................................................................ 96
References ........................................................................................................100
Appendix A (Validation table CSP performance calculation)................................103
Appendix B (Transmission grid maps North Africa) ............................................105

IV
List of Figures
Figure 1: Functional principle of a parabolic trough [REB]..3
Figure 2: Absorber tube of a parabolic trough collector [REB]...4
Figure 3: Basic concept for the integration of thermal energy storage into a solar
thermal parabolic through power plant [REB].6
Figure 4: Geometrical relation between sunbeam and tilted surface [EEG].8
Figure 5: Displacement of the sun image [SLP]...11
Figure 6: Three-node stratification liquid storage tank [SETP]..17
Figure 7: Plug and Flow model whit 4 layers [SLP].19
Figure 8: Carnot cycle p,V and T,s Diagram [TDK].20
Figure 9: Schematic drawing of a steam power plant and the T,s Diagram of a
Clausius-Rankine cycle [TDK]21
Figure 10: Real Clausius-Rankine Process T,s Diagram [KWT]..23
Figure 11: Increasing of the main steam parameters [KWT]...24
Figure 12: Water steam cycle with reheating [KWT].25
Figure 13: Regenerative feed water preheating [KWT]26
Figure 14: Schematic drawing of a high-pressure turbine [KWT]....27
Figure 15: Areas whit a slope higher than 2.1% [SID]...30
Figure 16: The land cover in the Euro-Mediterranean Region [SID]31
Figure 17: The Hydrology of the Euro-Mediterranean Region [SID]31
Figure 18: Geomorphologic exclusion criteria in the Euro-Mediterranean region
[SID].32
Figure 19: Protected areas of the Euro-Mediterranean Region [SID]..33
Figure 20: Industry and population of the Euro-Mediterranean region [SID]..34
Figure 21: Annual direct normal irradiation in kWh/m2/y on non-excluded areas in the
areas in the Euro-Mediterranean Region [SID]34
Figure 22: Annual direct normal irradiation on non-excluded areas in global scale
[SID].35
Figure 23: Electrical Transmission System Network of North Africa [GENI]36
Figure 24: Envisage Mediterranean interconnections with Europe [GENI]..37
Figure 25: Population growth in North Africa by countries [MCSP]..38
Figure 26: Average GDP growth rate between 2003 and 2050 for North African
countries [MCSP].39
Figure 27: Energy consumption in North Africa until 2050 [MCSP]..40
Figure 28: Electricity production in the MENA region until 2050 [MCSP].41
Figure 29: Area for the CSOMO-EU model displaying topographic height in meter
[COE]...43
Figure 30: Global horizontal irradiation calculated out of the COSMO-EU data
compared whit global horizontal irradiation data from HC3 database..44
Figure 31: I,b and DNI for 31N 29E and year 2007 simulated out of COSMO-EU
data..45
Figure 32: Monthly average ambient data for Egypt June 2007 provided by the
COSMO-EU database..46
Figure 33: General overview of the Matlab program for CSPP calculation.47
Figure 34: Basic program structure48
Figure 35: Basic program structure scenario analyzes....50
Figure 36: Number of CSPP according to MED CSP Scenario.51
Figure 37: Black-white map for evaluating available areas52
Figure 38: Schematic drawing of high voltage grid in North Africa...53
Figure 39: Possible installed gross capacity per country per country. Simulated
with a grid distance of 25km and 200 MWel installed gross capacity per pixel.53
Figure 40: Irradiation map of North Africa, CSPP distribution for scenario 203054
Figure 41: Irradiation map of North Egypt, CSPP distribution for scenario 2030 Cairo
area..55
Figure 42: Irradiation map of North Africa, CSPP whit cooling system distribution for
the scenario 2020..55
Figure 43: Basic Program structure performance calculation56
Figure 44: Incidence angle, tilt angle and solar height at 31N 20E for the 21st of
March 2007.57
Figure 45: Geometrical Collector losses in a location of 31N 29E at 21st March
2007 one axis tracking system, collector orientation north south..59
Figure 46: Efficiency and thermal energy harvest by the solar field with a size of
188,000m2 and a direct normal irradiation of 800 W/m2 at 31N 20E for 21st of March
2007 one axis tracking, collector orientation north south60
Figure 47: Schematic drawing of storage arrangement in the simulation program61
Figure 48: Schematic drawing of SM arrangement, storage unit is 6h 62
Figure 49: Full load operating hours /Simulation operating hours for solar-multiple 1-4
simulated for a CSP plant equipped with wet cooling system and back cooling
system located at 31N 29E metrological year 2007.64
Figure 50: Schematic drawing of water steam cycle with basic design parameters..65
Figure 51: Schematic drawing of the arrangement for a wet cooling system equipped
whit back cooling system and water turbine.. ..67
VI
Figure 52: Schematic drawing of evaporation cooling system with air-cooling

tower69
Figure 53: Schematic drawing of condenser connected to a dry cooling system...71
Figure 54: Plant performance calculation for SM1 equipped with dry cooling system
at a location of 31N 29E for the meteorological year 2007. Collector orientation is
north south..73
Figure 55: Plant performance calculation for SM4 equipped with evaporation cooling
system at a location of 31N 29E for the year 2007. Collector orientation is north
south ...74
Figure 56: Feed in series direct calculated and optimised and for CSPP SM 4 with
wet cooling and back cooling system located at 31N 29E. CSOMO-EU ambient
data for 2007..76
Figure 57: Schemata for the ELLC calculation [UVE].77
Figure 58: Method of recursive convolution, example for 3 power plants [DENA1]..78
Figure 59: Distribution of exporting CSP plants for Germany, with installed gross
capacity of 200 MWel for each plant, in North Africa for 205080
Figure 60: SIM-EE model IWES for simulation of the residual load curve [UBA]...82
Figure 61: Annual load duration curve for Germany in 2050 with an energy supply by
100% renewable energy sources [UBA]84
Figure 62: Residual load curve from the UBA study 100% renewable electricity
supply by 2050 [UBA]..84
Figure 63: SIM-EE model IWES for simulation of the residual load curve. Changes
are under taken in the position of importing energy according to the simulation in this
thesis. [UBA]...85
Figure 64: Weekly average energy production from CSP plants SM1 based on the
weather data COSMO-EU 2007.87
Figure 65:Residual load curve without import energy and residual load curve
including import energy form CSP with SM2. Irradiation and ambient data from
COSMO-EU model 200788
Figure 66: Partial view of figure XX residual load curve without imported energy and
residual load curve including imported energy from CSP with SM2. Irradiation and
ambient data from COSMO-EU model for 2007.88
Figure 67: Annual load duration curve for the residual load with and whiteout CSP
import SM289
Figure 69: Residual load curve without imported energy and residual load curve
including imported energy from CSP with SM3. Irradiation and ambient data from
COSMO-EU model 200790
VII
Figure 69. Partial view part of figure XX residual load curve without import energy
and residual load curve including import energy form CSP SM3 as well as energy
production CSP. Irradiation and ambient data from COSMO-EU model for 2007..90
Figure 70: Annual load duration curve for the residual load with and whiteout CSP
import SM3.91
Figure 71. Residual load curve without imported energy and residual load curve
including imported energy form CSP SM4. Irradiation and ambient data from
CSOMO-EU model 2007.92
Figure 72. Partial view part of figure XX residual load curve without imported energy
and residual load curve including imported energy from CSP with SM4. Irradiation
and ambient data from COSMO-EU model for 2007..92
Figure 73: Annual load duration curve for residual load with and without CSP import.
Ambient data COSMO-EU 2007.93
VIII
List of Tables
Table 1: Compulsive and optional criteria for the exclusion of land used for CSP
plants [SID].29
Table 2: Areas for CSP in km2 available in the MENA countries for different DNI
Classes [SID]..35
Table 3: Concentrated solar thermal potential in North Africa [MCSP]....42
Table 4: Basic input parameters for individual simulation of CSPP..49
Table 5: Input parameter for scenario analyze..50
Table 6: Design parameters for simulation of the solar field for CSP plant with gross
capacity of 200 MWel [DLS].57
Table 7: Design parameter for storage simulation [DLS]60
Table 8: Design parameters for simulation of the power block whit gross capacity of
200 MWel [DLS].64
Table 9: Design parameters for water steam calculation with a wet cooling system
[DLS]67
Table 10: Design parameters for water steam calculation evaporation cooling system
[DLS|69
Table 11: Design parameters for water steam calculation dry cooling system
[DLS]71
Table 12: Installed exporting CSP plants and gross capacity separated by countries
for North Africa 2050.81
Table 13: Unplanned outage probability [DENA1]...85
Table 14: PPN for ELCC simulation...86
Table 15: Summery of the results from export scenario analyze..97
IX
List of Symbols
A=
Area
C=
Concentration ratio (chapter 2) / ventilator constant (chapter 4)
c=
specific heat capacity
D=
distance collector row
F=
area angle (chapter 2.2) / control function (chapter2.3)
f=
focal length (chapter 2.) / solar field coefficient (chapter 4)
G=
irradiation at absorber pipe (chapeter2.2) / Gibbs free energy (chapter2.3)
H=
height of collector
h=
specific enthalpy / probability density function (chapter 4.4)
I=
global horizontal irradiation
I b=
global horizontal beam radiation
I d=
global horizontal diffuse radiation
L=
length of the collector
l=
length of the not irradiated absorber part
m=
mass flow
N=
number of nodes
n=
number of the day
P=
power / black out probability (chapter 4.4)
p=
pressure
Q=
thermal energy
q=
specific thermal energy
S=
entropy
s=
specific entropy
T=
temperature in Kelvin
t=
time
U=
heat transfer coefficient (chapter2.2) / internal energy (chapter 2.3)
V=
volume (chapter 2) / availability collector field (chapter 4)
v=
specific volume (chapter 2) /wind speed at ground height (chapter 4)
W=
work
w=
specific work (chapter 2)/ speed (chapter 4)
x=
distance (chapter 2) /water contend (chapter 4.3)
z=
distance for water transportation
Greek letters
s =
surface azimuth
r =
surface azimuth relative
tilt angle
s =
solar elevation
storage capacity
angle of declination
emissivity
latitude
efficiency
relative humidity
density
incidance angle
Z=
zenith angle
solar field reduction factor
XI
List of Abbreviations
ALB_RAD:
ground albedo
ASOB_S:
short wave radiation at ground high
CC:
capacity credit
CSP:
concentrated solar power
CSPP:
concentrated solar power plant
DLR:
German aerospace center
DNI:
direct normal irradiation
DSMW:
digital soil map of the world
ELCC:
effective load carrying capacity
GDP:
gross domestic product
GHG:
green house gasses
GIS:
global information system
GLCC:
global land cover characterization
GNI:
gross national income
HC3:
HelioClime3
IDR:
Incidence direct radiation
IEA:
international energy agency
IWES:
Frauenhofer-institute for wind energy and energy system technology
IPCC:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LOLE:
loss of load probability
LOLP:
loss of load probability
MENA:
Middle East and North Africa
NDVI:
normalized difference vegetation index
PPA:
purchasing power parity
PPN:
power plant network
RE:
renewable energies
SM:
solar multiple
SEGS:
solar energy generation system
UBA:
German Federal Environmental Agency
WBGU:
German Advisory Council on Global Change
WCU:
World conservation Union
XII
Abstract
Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report 2007
established: it is very likely that global warming nowadays is man made
[IPCC2007a], it becomes obviously that the emission of CO2 have to be reduced
drastically. The green house gas (GHG) concentration for 2010 was 39% above the
preindustrial level. Therefore the warming trend has increased significantly over the
last 50 years [IPCC2007a]. Still GHG emissions associated with the provision of
energy services are the major cause of climate change. Nevertheless, cold-fired
power plants are still the basis of electricity production all over the world. In order to
work against this trend research and political influence is necessary to avoid the
negative impact of the global warming. Based on the history of industrial
development the industrialized countries have the duty to reduce their own
emissions, as well as supporting developing countries by doing so. In this context,
options like exporting solar energy form the deserts of North Africa to Europe would
offer great possibilities and both sides might have a benefit. Because of the high
solar irradiation form 2500kw/m2/y in some parts of North Africa and the high share of
direct radiation concentrated solar power plants (CSP) are an excellent option for a
sustainable electricity production in this region.
The thesis is providing a model witch can calculate the electrical output of CSP
parabolic trough plants for several locations in North Africa. Furthermore it is
analyzed how these CSP plants can contribute to a 100% renewable energy supply
in Germany for the year 2050. Therefore the first part of this thesis presents a model
estimating suitable locations for CSP plants in North Africa and calculating the
electrical output of CSP plants. Several criterias for land use, annual irradiation and
infrastructure, are processed, and rules for depositing CSP plants were specified. In
alliance with weather prediction models an energy-balanced CSP model simulates
the electrical output of exclusive solar driven CSP parabolic trough plants. By using
different configurations the simulation can display various forms of storage sizes and
different cooling system.
The second part of the thesis is focused on how the CSP plants can support a 100%
renewable energy system in Germany in the year 2050. Therefore, the effective load
carrying capacity (ELCC) and the capacity credit (CC) for a number of CSP plants in
relation to the residual load in Germany is evaluated. The focus is on the influence
different storage sizes have on the possibility to supply energy on demand for
Germany.
XIII
The work shows that even a high capacity credit of around 53% for solar multiple four
CSP plants is not necessarily helpful to reduce significant the high demand in
Germany during winter times. This can be mainly related to the seasonality noticed in
the CSP output even whit high storage capacities.
The thesis is outlined by the MED-CSP study [MCSP] and the study 100%
renewable
electricity
environmental agency.
supply
by
2050[UBA2050]
of
the
German
federal
1. Introduction
1.1 Renewable energy and climate change
The 2007 IPCC report states that Most of the observed increases in global average
temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration. [IPCC, 2007a]
The concentration of CO2 has been increased to about 390 ppm CO 2 at the end of
2010, 39% above the pre-industrial level. This lends to an average global
temperature increase of 0.76 C. In order not to exceed a global temperature
increase of 2C with a probability of 67% the CO 2 concentration has to be limited at
450 ppm by 2050. This means that only 750 billion tons of GHG can be emitted until
2050. For that reason the 2050 GHG emissions must be bisecting in relation to the
emissions of 1990. Taking into consideration historical reasonability as well as their
economic strength, developed countries must reduce their emissions by about 80%
to 95% by 2050. Countries in transition and developing countries have more time to
reduce their emissions. However, taking into consideration the growth of population
and the ongoing development in countries of transition and developing countries, a
significant increase in energy consumption along with GHG emissions will be
noticed. In 2011 the global energy consumption was around 510 EJ/year compared
to 340 EJ/year in 1990. In parallel to this trend, the yearly amount of GHG emissions
is increasing, reaching 30 Gt CO2 in 2010. If this trend is ongoing the limit of 750 Gt
GHG emissions will be reached before 2035 and it would cause the 2C goal to not
be met. Nevertheless all societies require energy services to meet basic human
needs like lighting, cooking, mobility, communication, and to serve productive
processes, but GHG emissions associated with the provision of energy services can
be seen as the major cause of climate change [IPCC, 2007a]. Consequently, other
ways of energy production have to be found.
1.1.1 Solar technology

The use of renewable energies (RE) offers a great chance to reduce the GHG
emissions in an economical way. The costs and the challenges for the integration of
RE into an existing energy supply system is mainly dependent on the actual system
characteristic, the current share of RE and the availability of RE resources. Based on
these circumstances the WBGU recommends establishing representative projects for
introducing RE on a large scale. In this way, incentives on a strategic level for a
global change in energy policies can be set. A strategic partnership between the
European Union (EU) and the MENA region can be seen as a key element of such a
policy. In such cooperation the EU can offer technologies and finances in order to
address their national and international responsibility for climate protection. The
MENA region can benefit from transferring their renewable resources as an export
product along with benefiting from the accompanying economic growth. [DLR, MEDCSP]
The MENA countries have the greatest potential for using direct solar energy on a
global scale, with a minimum of 412 EJ/year and a maximum of 11,060 EJ/year.
Solar energy especially offers a significant potential for the near-term (until 2020) and
the long-term (until 2050) climate change mitigation. The wide range of technologies
for harvesting the energy provided by the sun can be excellently implemented in
North African countries and the Middle East. The costs of these technologies have
considerably reduced over the last 30 years and political conditions as well as
technical development will offer additional cost reduction in the future. Besides
thermal energy for heating and cooling, PV systems and concentrating solar power
electricity generation can play an important roll in the MENA countries. The majority
of the worlds electricity production nowadays derives from nuclear, coal, gas, oil,
and biomass driven power plants. The CSP plants work on the same concept while
simply providing an alternative heat source. Therefore CSP can benefit from not only
the improvements made in the solar concentrator technologies but also from the
ongoing advantages in steam and gas turbine cycles. Further advantages of this
technology are that it does not need exotic materials and adding a thermal storage
for operations on grid stability is possible. Also the CSP technologies that can be
used are cheap. It can be installed in small-scaled applications with a few kWinstalled-capacities (dish/Stirling systems) up to multiple MWs (tower and trough
systems). [IPCC, SREEN]
Parabolic trough plants can be operated as hybrid plants, together with gas turbines,
that can be used as desalination plants or operating as pure solar plants with
different storage sizes. Actualization of this technology already exists in the MENA
region like the Kuraymat power station. The focus in this work is with parabolic
trough technology installed in North African regions. The next part will give a rough
overview about the parabolic trough technology.
1.2 Parabolic trough technology

The solar field produces thermal energy by using direct normal irradiation (DNI), and
delivers this energy to a steam power plant. The solar field can be considered in a
first approach as a solar steam generator.
The glass mirror of the solar field has a parabolic shape and is reflecting the
incoming direct radiation with a concentration value of around 80 to the absorber
tube. One of the most modern Collectors nowadays is the type LS-3. One LS-3
collector consists of 224 mirror segments, where each segment has an area of 2.68
m2. Taking into consideration the bending of the mirrors, an area of 545 m2 is
reached with one LS-3 collector. In addition the collector contains 24 absorber tubes.
The complete construction is a lightweight metal structure, which normally is
equipped with a single axis tracking system.
Figure 1: Functional principle of a parabolic trough [REB]
A complete solar field contains several parallel rows of solar collectors, which get
connected in loops of normally 6 LS-3 collectors. The power block is located in the
center of the solar field. The distance between the collector rows is planned
according to minimizing the piping costs on the one hand and having a minimal
shading effect between the rows on the other. In general the design of the solar field
depends on plant and collector size, the temperature and pressure losses in the
piping system and the specific ambient conditions. Parabolic trough fields can be
erected in any direction, but erected in a north-south direction leads to the highest
possible energy yield over the year while an east-west orientation smoothes down
the seasonal fluctuations.
Some of the components like the metal structure, the tracking system, the controllers
and other subsystems, which make up around 60% of the direct solar field costs, are
standard components and can be ordered from several countries and in different
forms. The reflectors and the absorber tube, however, are special components and
have to be produced specifically for the parabolic trough solar field.
1.2.1 Reflectors
The concentrators (see figure 1) consist of a heat-formed glass cake. It is carried by
the metal structure of the collector. By using special production techniques, like the
float-glass method, absolute evenness of the cake is guaranteed. Glass, which is
used in solar applications, must have very low iron content for getting a transmissivity
in the solar spectrum of around 91%. The iron content of a so-called White Glass is
around 0.015% compared to normal glass with an iron content of around 0.13%. The
binding of the reflectors is done under heat conditions. Several safety layer coatings
are added, giving additional protection for the mirror. Finally the contour accuracy is
tested using a laser beam.
1.2.2 Absorber
For the LS-3 collectors the absorber pipe consists of a stainless steel tube with a
length of 4 meters and a thickness of 70mm. A glass pipe surrounds the tube (see
figure 2). The glass tube allows evacuating of the area between the absorber tube
and the glass pipe in order to minimize convection and conduction heat losses.
Figure 2: Absorber tube of a parabolic trough collector [REB]
The vacuum also serves to protect the highly sensitive coating. Nowadays, such
selective coatings remain stable in temperatures of 450C upwards to 500C. On
average the solar absorption is currently above 95% and at an operational
temperature of around 400C the emissivity is below 14%. This leads to an optical
efficiency of around 80% for upcoming perpendicular radiation. Furthermore the
hydrogen getter (see figure 2) absorbs the hydrogen, which is getting through the
glass pipe and the stainless steel pipe by diffusion. A membrane finally pumps the
hydrogen out of the vacuum. As a final point, glass/metal joints realize extension
bellows compensating the thermal expansion of the pipe, and the connection
between the glass pipe and the metal structure.
1.2.3 Tracking and controlling

Solar fields in a CSP plant use single axel tracking systems. The tracking is
according to the position of the sun and/or the requirement of the power block.
Therefore a solar sensor is used to evaluate the sun position. Sensors consisting of a
convex lens focus the sun light to a small photovoltaic cell, reaching a resolution of
around 0.05%. These kinds of sensors are used in the so-called SEGS plants, where
they prove most effective. The tracking system must have sufficient torque to operate
the collectors even at higher wind speeds. For LS-3 collectors normally electrohydraulic drives are used. In the design specs the movement can take place with a
speed of 9 m/s. For emergency reasons or for operation conditions, which are not
requiring a high optical efficiency, the speed can be increased up to 20 m/s.
In existing plants the controlling of the field takes place in two separate stages. The
overall control is located in the central control room and the second stage is placed
on each collector unit. The local units take care of the incoming irradiation; wind
speed and mass flow of heat transport medium. In case of emergency the local units
can shut down parts of the solar field. The overall unit operates the solar field
according to the overall plant requirements, mainly the electrical output in relation to
the actual solar radiation.
1.2.4 Heat transfer medium

At the moment high-boiling synthetic thermal oil has been applied as the heat
transfer medium in the absorber tubes. According to the thermal stability of this oil
the actual operation temperature of the solar field is approximately 400C. When
operating at this temperature, the oil has to be pressurized at around 12 to 16 bar.
The thermal oil is circulating in the collector tubes, where the driving forces are
speed adjustable pumps. For the purpose of thermal expansion during its heat up an
expansion vessel is installed.
1.2.5 Thermal storage

The availability of thermal storages currently plays an important role for the economic
success of solar thermal power plants. In parabolic trough plants sensible heat
storages, operating with temperatures between 300C and 400C, are in use.
The storage has a significant influence on the operating conditions of the solar
thermal plant. Changes in the solar radiation availability lead, without proper storage,
to a change in the electrical output. This not only leads to the plant having a reduced
supply security, but also to a reduced lifetime of the steam turbine itself. Frequent
changes to the load of the turbine lead to more thermal stresses, thus reducing the
lifetime of the turbine. Larger storages are able to support load shift to non-day times,
for example the evening hours when peak load demand is needed. In combination
with an over dimension of the solar field the yearly operational hours can be
extended significantly. Therefore the operation time of around 2,000 hours per year
can be increased to 4,000 hours per year by doubling the solar field and storing the
produced energy over the day. The solar multiple can extend up to 8,000 operating
hours per year. This allows solar multiple (SM) plants to operate as base load plants.
SM is used as an indicator of how much the solar field is oversized. SM 2 means an
additional energy for around 2,000 operating hours per year, SM 3 for a sum of 6,000
operating hours per year and so on. The figure 3 displays one possible arrangement
of a CSPP with thermal storage.
Figure 3: Basic concept for the integration of thermal energy storage into a solar thermal
parabolic trough power plant [REB]
1.3 Thesis objectives and outlines

The objective of the thesis is to develop a physical model; witch can predict the
electrical output of CSP parabolic thought plants in North Africa. Furthermore it have
to be analyzed how these CSP plants can contribute to a 100% renewable energy
supply in Germany for the year 2050. Consequently the model must be able to deal
with data sets out of the SIM-EE model [UBA2050]. Using Matlab as programming
software it is possibility to fulfill this requirement.
So far no exclusive solar driven CSP plants installed in North Africa. Realistic
predictions for the future have to be developed, and ways of distributing the CSP
plants in North Africa must be evaluated. Therefore, the first work for the thesis is to
find a way to estimating suitable locations for CSP plants in North Africa. Criterias for
land use, annual irradiation and infrastructure, can be used to do so. Furthermore
weather prediction model must be added to the simulation for getting exact results.
Also different configurations for the plant like various forms of storage sizes and
different cooling must be considered.
The second part of the thesis is implementing process criterias from the SIM-EE
model in order to compare the results from part one, with results from the SIM-EE
simulation for 2050. The focus should be on the effective load carrying capacity witch
will allow to make statement related to the influence import energy from North Africa
has on the 100% renewable energy system in Germany for the year 2050.
The thesis starts with a theoretical description of the physical processes, occurring in
a parabolic trough CSPP. In the next chapter the recourses and the potential for CSP
plants in North Africa, related to several criterias are analyzed. The program
development is described in the 4th chapter. This chapter contains also the results of
the simulation program and the added program parts from the SIM-EE model. The 5th
chapter finally, presents the outlines and the results for the export scenario analyze.
Chapter six summarizes the results and is giving an outlook for possible further
investigations.
2. Theoretical performance calculation CSPP

2.1 Geometrical relations
The energy contained in the direct normal radiation is harvest by the concentration
collectors of a solar field. By reflecting the received normal direct radiation to the
absorber, thermal energy is produced and transported to the power block.
Conventional technology is used to convert this energy into electrical energy.
Therefore the incoming radiation can be seen as the fuel of a CSP plant. For a
precise calculation of the CSPP performance it is essential to understand the
geometrical relations between the sun and earth at any time of the day. In this
chapter these theoretical relations are described.
2.1.1 Sun earth geometry

The geometrical relationship between the incoming direct radiation and a plane of
any orientation at every hour can be described in terms of several angles. The
following schematic drawing gives an overview of these geometrical relations.
Figure 4: Geometrical relation between sunbeam and tilted surface [REG].
The most important angel, in this arrangement is the so-called incidence angle ! it
can be calculated out of [SETP; S.14]:
(2.1)
Here " is the tilt angle of the plane, and # the surface azimuth angle, with 0 in the
southern direction, then becoming negative when moving towards an eastern
direction or positive in a western direction. Both angles can be either fixed or
adjusted according to sun position by using a tracking system. The angle of
declination $ can be found by the approximate equation of Cooper (1969) [SETP;

S.16]:
#
284 + n &
" = 23.45sin% 360
(
$
365 '
(2.2)
This angle represents the angular position of the sun at solar noon in relation to the
plane of the equator. The number of days in a year is represented by n. The hour
angle % sets the angular displacement of the sun east or west of the local meridian.
This is done due to rotation of the earth with a value of around 15 per hour. The
angle will be negative in the morning and positive in the afternoon. The latitude in
equation (2.1) is mentioned with & and reveres to a certain location.
The zenith angle can be understood as the incidence angle of beam radiation on a
horizontal surface. Therefore equation (2.1) can be simplified to [SETP; S.16]:
cos" z = (cos # cos $ cos% + sin # sin $ )
(2.3)
The sun height "s shown in figure 4 is the complementary angle of !z. Due to this
reason it can simply be stated as:
"s = 90 # $ z
(2.4)
Tracking systems for the collector are important in terms of harvesting the maximum
amount of energy out of the sunlight. The standard tracking system for a parabolic
trough collector is a single axis tracking system. The collector orientation is normally
either in a north-south or east-west direction. For a fixed east-west direction the
surface azimuth is defined as [SETP; S.21]:
$ 0 if " < 90
s
" =%
&180 if " s # 90
(2.5)
Therefore the tilt angel of the surface can be calculated by [SETP; S.21]:
tan " = tan # z cos $ s
(2.6)
The aim of the one axis tracking system is to minimize the angle of incidence. For
tracking in north south direction the angle can be evaluated according to [SETP;
S.21]:
cos" = (1 # cos2 $ sin 2 % )
(2.7)
The same calculations can be undertaken for a fixed north-south orientation of the
collector surface. Here the surface azimuth is defined by [SETP; S.22]:
10
% 90 if " s > 0
" =&
' #90 if " s $ 0
(2.8)
Consequently, the collector tilt angle is evaluated according to the following equation
[SETP; S.21]:
tan " = tan # z cos($ % $ s )
(2.9)
According to equation (2.8) the surface azimuth angle will be 90 or -90 depending
on the sign of the solar azimuth angle.
The incidence angle for a plane rotating about a horizontal north-south axis, with
continuous tracking, is [SETP; S.21]:
cos" = (cos2 " z + cos 2 # sin 2 $ )
(2.10)
Based on the angles described in this chapter it is possible to calculate the incoming
beam radiation on a collector field, with one axis tracking system for a certain
location and time.
2.1.2 Sun collector geometry

For the operation of a CSPP temperatures of around 400C are necessary. These
high temperatures cannot be reached with a flat plate collector. Therefore
concentrating collectors are used. One type of these concentrating collectors is the
parabolic trough collector. The direct normal radiation reaching the collector is
concentrated on the absorber tube located in the focal point of the parabolic
collector. The most important characteristic factor therefore, is the concentration
ratio. It is defined as the aperture area in relation to the absorber area [SETP; S.327]:
C=
Aa
Aabs
(2.11)
Here Aa is the aperture area and Aabs the area of the absorber. For a three
dimensional system like a parabolic dish system with a two axis tracking system,
which is focusing on one point, the maximum concentration ratio is around 45,000.
However, the parabolic trough is a two dimensional system, where a maximum
concentration ratio of 200 can be reached.
The most significant losses under some circumstances occurring in a solar field are
the shading losses. This reduction is happening when one collector row reflects their
shadow onto the next row. In well-designed CSP plants this effect only shows up in
the morning or evening hours with shadowing due to low tilt angle. However at these
times shading losses can reach a maximum of up to 100%, where the rest of the day
11
these losses are close to zero. The part of the collector area that is not in the shaded
region, can be approximately calculated according to [DLS; S.10]:
)&
)
&
sin %
+(
+
(
H sin $
D
D
tan $s
+
+
(
(
1#
"SL = 1 # 1 #
&
)
&
)
+
+
(
(
cos % r
cos % r
sin $+ +( H( cos $ +
sin $+ L +
( H( cos $ +
cos $s
cos $s
'
* *'
'
* *
'
(2.12)
If the result of the equation above is smaller or equal to zero the collector is
completely in the shadow. If the result is greater or equal to one, no shading losses
are occurring on the collector. It is obvious that the shading effect is dependent on
the collector size and the distance between the collector rows. In equation (2.12) D
represents the distance between the collector rows in meters, H the height of the
collector in meters and L the length of a collector row also in meters. The relative
azimuth angle #r can be calculated as the absolute value of the different between the
solar and the surface azimuth angel.
Another loss factor occurs because, the incoming radiation to the collector is not
exact perpendicular and the absorber tube has a finite length. At the end of each
collector a certain part of the absorber tube will be not be irradiated. This
displacement of the sun image is shown in the following figure
Figure 5: Displacement of the sun image [SLP].
In the northern hemisphere these effects can be noticed especially during wintertime.
Normally these losses are under two percent in feasible areas for CSP plants.
Nevertheless, the reduction factor can be calculated according to [SLP; S.22]:
l = f tan " sin # $ # s
(2.13)
In formula (2.13) l represents the length of the not irradiated part, displayed in figure
5. The focal length f depends on the collector design. Consequently, the losses in
percentage can be calculated as:
12
"EV = 1 #
l
L
(2.14)
Further losses that occur depend on the finite earth sun distance where the beams
reaching the collectors are also not exactly parallel. As a result the sun image on the
absorbers is not precisely circular. The image can be seen in the form of an ellipse,
which changes the frame, depending on the angle of incidence. Only for ! is zero the
image will be circular. By increasing the incidence angle the performance
characteristic of the sun image becomes worse. This happens because the absorber
is designed for a perfect circular sun image. This effect is called incidence angle
modifier and can be predicted according to Marco (1995) as follows [SLP; S.23]:
"IAM = cos# (1+ sin 3 # )
(2.15)
From formula (2.15) we can observe that the losses occurring are negligible.
Nevertheless, they do increase with distance from the equator.
Finally the irradiation reaching the collector can be separated in two parts. One is
exactly perpendicular the other one is horizontal to the collector. The collector
however only can reflect the perpendicular part of the radiation. This leads to the socalled cosin-effect. Here the amount of useful irradiation can be calculated by
[DLS; S.9]:
"COS = cos#
(2.16)
Finally the amount of energy, which can be reflected per square meter of collector
area to the absorber, can be calculated [DLS; S.10]:
IDR = "COS "IAM "SL "EV
(2.17)
IDR stand for Incident Direct Radiation and represents the useful part of energy
provided under ideal conditions to the absorber tube.
2.2 Solar field

Inside of the absorber tube a heat transport medium, mainly synthetic oil, is used to
collect the thermal energy and transport it to heat exchangers for producing steam in
order to operate a steam turbine. During the transportion of the oil thermal losses can
be recognized, and also further losses during the concentration process have to be
taken into account.
2.2.1 Optical losses

Energy losses not only occur because of geometrical reasons like shading or
unirradiated absorber parts, but also from the material properties of the mirror, the
13
hull pipe, and the absorber. Therefore, some operating figures will be defined. They
are all dependent on the design quality of the collector elements being used [DLS;
S.12]:
Reflectivity of the mirror:
A small part of the incidence radiation is not reflected to the absorber, because the
reflectivity of the mirror being finite. The mirror absorbs a part of the incoming
radiation. As an average the reflection coefficient of a mirror used in solar thermal
abdications can be set to '=0.93 [DLS; S.12].
Contamination of the mirror:
The part of irradiation, which is absorbed by the mirror, is increasing with ongoing
contamination of the mirror surface. Taking into consideration frequently washing
procedure the contamination factor can be estimated with $=0.98 [DLS; S.12].
Transmission factor of the mirror:
The glass on the top of the mirror also partly absorbs the irradiation. The irradiation
has to pass the glass cover two times, which leads to a transmission coefficient of
around (s=0.99 [DLS; S.12].
Quality factor of the mirror:
The quality factors depending on the production processes as well as the erection on
site. For example the absorber tube is not exactly mounted in the focal point of the
mirror additional losses will occur. Also different focal length of the mirror plats will
lead to additional losses. Nowadays a quality factor of )=0.90 is assumed. [DLS;
S.12].
Transmission factor of the hull pipe:
A small part of the reflected irradiation is again reflected by the glass pipe, which
surrounds the absorber tube. This transmission coefficient can be set here to (H=0.95
[DLS; S.12].
Absorption factor of the absorber pipe:
At the absorber tube not all of the reflected radiation will be absorbed. Due to
physical conditions a part of the radiation will always be reflected. The absorption
factor can be estimated with #=0.95 [DLS; S.12].
All the quality and material factors mentioned above are factored for an LS-3
collector type.
Taking into consideration all the additional factors above it is finally possible to
calculate the amount of energy received per square meter absorber pipe:
14
GA = IDR"#$% H % S2 = IDR&opt
(2.18)
As displayed in equation (2.18) the combination of all quality factors can be

summarized as the optical efficiency of the mirror *opt. In the formula above GA
represents the irradiation reaching the absorber pipe per square meter. Now the part
of how the transformation into thermal energy and consequently, the losses occurring
during transportation in the absorber pipe is described.
2.2.2 Heat losses

Until now it has been described how the energy of the direct solar radiation reaches
the surface of the absorber. Here the form of energy is now changed into thermal
energy. This can be described by constructing an energy balance equation like [SLP;
S.23]:
GA A" = Qn + Q losses
(2.19)
Here A is the absorber area and + is the absorbance of the absorber. Qn identifies
the useful thermal energy collected in the thermal oil and the thermal losses are
combined in QLosses.
Physically there are three different types of heat transportation, occurring naturally.
These are heat transport according to convention, conduction and radiation.
However these phenomena are the reason for the thermal losses in the solar field.
The losses depending on conduction and convection can be set in a first approach in
a linear relation with the difference between the average absorber temperature and
the ambient temperature [SLP; S.24]:
QCC = UCC A(Ta " TU )
(2.20)
UCC is the heat transfer coefficient, which is adjusted by measurement results. The
average absorber temperature is labeled Ta , and Tu is the ambient temperature. In
addition to the convection and conduction losses, the thermal radiation losses must
be taken into consideration. Therefore the heat flux between two surfaces by thermal
radiation is described as [VDW; S.255]:
Qrad
"(T24 # T14 )
=
1 # $1
1
1 #$2
+
+
$1 A1 A1F1,2 $ 2 A2
(2.21)
T represents the temperature for each of the two surfaces, F is the area angle
between the surfaces, A is the area of the surfaces, + is the Stefan Boltzmann
constant, and , is the emission coefficient for each surfaces. In case of a solar field it
15
can be assumed that the absorber area is relatively small compared to the ambient
area. These allows to simplify equation (2.21) to [SLP; S.24]:
Qrad = "1 A1# (T24 $ T14 )
(2.22)
In the formula above the emissivity of the environment is considered with one. A1
displays the area of the absorber. Now the energy used for heating up of the
collector, for example in the morning hours can be calculated by [SLP; S.25]:
QC = AUC (Tc " Ta )
(2.23)
UC shows the heat transfer coefficient of the collector and Tc is the collector
temperature. Putting all these thermal losses together and combining it with formula
(2.19) the amount of thermal energy produced by the solar field can be calculated
out of :
Qn = G"A # AUCC (Tc # Ta ) # $% c A(Tc4 # Ta4 ) # AU c (Tc # Ta )
(2.24)
Consequently, the amount of energy collected in the absorber must be transported

either into storage or to the power block. Here additional losses in the absorber pipe
will be occurring. Finally these piping losses can be calculated according to [SLP;
S.33]:
QP = U P (TF " Ta )
(2.25)
Now all necessary relations for the description of how the energy provided by the sun
is harvested and distributed either into storage or to the power block are described.
The point of interest is now the storage and power block arrangements.
2.3 Thermal Storage

There are two general types of thermal storage mechanisms. The first one is based
upon the use of sensible heat in various forms of solid and/or liquid materials. The
other storage type involves the latent heat of phase change reactions.
Sensible heat is added to a material simply by heating it up. Generally all energy that
is involved in changing the temperature of a medium is called sensible heat, and it
amounts simply to the product of the specific heat and the temperature change. [ES;
S.22]:
q = "c pV#T
(2.26)
In equation (2.26) ' is the density of the storage material, cp the specific heat
capacity at constant pressure of the storage material and V the volume of the
16
storage. A different mechanism for storing thermal energy involves a phase transition
with no change in the chemical composition of the storage material. A simple
example therefore is water. At low temperatures under 0C it is solid, at temperatures
between 1C and 99C it becomes liquid and at temperatures above 100C it
converts into gas. Thus, it can undergo two transition phases, with associated
changes in entropy and enthalpy. The Gibbs free energy, or chemical potential, for
the two phases are in equilibrium with each other at the transition temperature.
Therefore it can be evaluated according to [ES; S.23]"!
"G = "H # T"S = 0
(2.27)
At the temperature, the change in heat content -H at the transition temperature is

equal to T-S. The slope of the temperature dependence of the Gibbs free energy
and is proportional to the negative value of the entropy, which is different in diverse
phases and materials. Considering that state-of-the-art sensible heat storages are
used in CSP plants, here two different ways of calculating this kind of thermal
storage will be described.
2.3.1 Stratification Storage the Multi-node-model

Liquid storage tanks are operated at a significant degree of stratification. The degree
of stratification in real operation is strongly dependent on the design of the tank and
its location.
In the multi-node model heat storage is modeled and divided into N nodes in order to
display the stratification layers. In order to formulate the necessary equations, it will
be appropriate to set some assumptions about how the liquid will be entering the
tank and how the distribution to the several nodes takes place. The density of the
liquid is dependent on the temperature. Therefore we can assume that the storage
material will find its way to the node with the same temperature as the liquid. As it is
displayed in figure 6 the mass flow coming from the collector field mc finds its way to
a node according to its temperature between Ts,1 and Ts,3. The same physical effect
can be discovered when the liquid enters the tank upstream.
17
Figure 6: Three-node stratification liquid storage tank [SETP].
In the three node-model displayed in graph 6 the nodes are counted from the top to
the bottom. The liquid flow inside of the tank however, can run from the bottom to the
top or the other way around depending on the thermodynamic conditions of the
different layers. A collector control function Fic can be defined in order to determine,
which layer receives the thermal energy coming from the solar field. [SETP; S.384]:
$1 if
&
&1 if
C
Fi = %
&0 if
&'0
i =1
and Tc,0 > Ts,1
Ts,i"1 # Tc,0 > Ts,i
i = 0 or if i = N +1
otherwise
(2.28)
During the operation of the solar field the control functions can be non-zero only for
one node. The liquid returning from the power block can be controlled in the same
way like the mass flow coming from the collector field. Therefore the control function
FLi is established [SETP; S.384]:
$1 if
&
&1 if
L
Fi = %
&0 if
&'0
i=N
i =0
and TL,r < Ts,N

Ts,i"1 # TL,r > Ts,i
or if i = N +1
otherwise
(2.29)
Equation (2.29) follows the same assumption as for equation (2.28). Therefore only
one control function can be set 1 during an operation.
The net flow between the nodes can now be either up or down. This depends on the
magnitudes of the load flow rates and the values represented in the two control
functions (2.28) and (2.29) at any particular instance. It is appropriate to define a
mixed flow rate in order to describe the net flow rate into node I from node i-1 in the
18
multi-node model. The equations for calculating these flow rates can be presented as
[SETP; S.385]:
m m,1 = 0
i"1
m m,i = m c # F jc " mL
j =1
(2.30)
#F
j =i+1
L
j
m m.N +1 = 0
(2.31)
(2.32)
By using the control functions (2.28 and (2.29) it is now possible to describe the
energy balance for each node i. This function can be expressed as [SETP; S.385]:
mi
dTs,i " UA %
= $$ ''(Ta ( Ts,i ) + Fic m(Tc,0 ( Ts,i ) + FiL m c (TL,r ( Ts,i )
dt # c p &
#
% m m,i (Ts,i"1 " Ts,i ) if m m,i > 0
+$
%& m m,i+1 (Ts,i " Ts,i+1 ) if m m,i+1 < 0
(2.33)
Here the first term representing the heat losses to the to the environment with the
temperature Ta. By increasing the number of nodes the model can be used for
describing processes in highly stratified tanks. Therefore equation (2.33) can be seen
as the basic description of the energy balance. Furthermore the model allows adding
a heating system in one or more nodes or going into more details for the description
of the thermal losses. For solving equation (2.33) numerical integration can be
performed by techniques like the explicit Euler or the Runge-Kutta methods.
However, for this type of storage model very little experimental evidence for
supporting the results are available. Nevertheless, the assumptions are all based on
physical facts.
2.3.2 The Plug-Flow Model

The plug flow model is another possibility for describing a stratification tank. Here
different layers, flowing around in the tank are the focus of interest. When the heat
transport fluid is entering the tank a new layer is simply added to the model. On the
other hand when liquid is leaving the tank a layer will be removed from the model.
The size of each segment varies depending on the flow rate and the time increments
set for the calculation.
Figure 7 presents a heat storage tank according to the plug and flow model with four
layers. On the x-axis the temperature will be marked, while the y-axis represents the
19
height of the storage. Vi presents the volume of each storage layer.
Figure 7: Plug and Flow model whit 4 layers [SLP].
Here, losses on the surface of the tank occurring. The temperature change of each
layer i can be detected with the following equation [SLP; S.30]:
dTs,i " UA %
mi
= $ ' (T ( Ts,i )
dt $# c p '& a
i
(2.34)
The definition mi represents the mass at each layer, Ts,I the Temperature of the layer,
U represents the heat transfer coefficient, A is the outer area of the storage and Ta
stands for the ambient temperature.
Both models have their advantages and disadvantages. The decision which model is
used in the simulation has to be determined by considering the required accuracy,
the available data sets, and the available computational capacity.
2.4 Power Block

The heart of the CSP plant is the power block: here the thermal energy delivered
either from storage or from the solar field is transferred into electrical energy. In
previous chapters, the process has been described for how to harvest and transfer
solar energy, as well as the transport and storage of thermal energy. Here a closer
look of how the thermal energy is transformed into electrical energy is undertaken.
For CSP plants, well-established techniques are used. These techniques are
depending theoretically on the Clausius-Rankine cycle.
2.4.1 Carnot Cycle

Cycle processes play a very important roll in the mean of transferring thermal energy
into mechanical energy. The ideal thermodynamic cycle is the Carnot process. It has
20
the maximum thermodynamic efficiency, the Carnot efficiency *c. This is because all
changers of states are reversible. In practical applications this efficiency can never
be reached but is used for indicating the thermodynamic quality of a real process.
Figure 8 shows the Carnot cycle in a p,V and a T,S diagram it can be seen that all
parts of the cycle are reversible.
Figure 8: Carnot cycle p,V and T,s Diagram [TDK].
As it is displayed in the graph above, the process consists of two isothermal and two
reversible adiabatic changes of state. The isothermal expansion form state (1) takes
place by adding thermal energy Q12 and performing work W12. A reversible adiabatic
expansion takes place from state (2) to state (3). The isothermal compression
between states (3) and (4) releases the thermal energy Q34 and must be supplied by
work W34. Lastly, by reversible adiabatic compression the working gas is brought
back to state (1).
By using the first law of thermodynamics the process can be described as [TDK;
S.66]:
# dU = # "W + # "Q
(2.35)
Taking into consideration, that the change of energy in a closed cycle is zero, the
formula (2.35) can be simplified to [TDK; S.66]:
$ "W = # $ " Q
(2.36)
Equation (2.36) shows that the sum of all added and removed work is equal to zero.
Therefore, it can be defined as [TDK; S.66]:
W1,2 + W 2,3 + W 3,4 + W 4,1 + Q1,2 + Q3,4 = 0
(2.37)
From equation (2.37) the Carnot efficiency can be explained only by the added and
removed thermal energy in the cycle [TDK; S.66]:
21
"th = 1 #
(#Q3,4 )
T
=1# 3
T1
Q1,2
(2.38)
By using the entropy difference the thermodynamic efficiency can be also descript as
the relation of temperature T3 and T1. This efficiency finally can be used for
evaluating the quality of any other circular process.
2.4.2 Clausius-Rankine Cycle

In the CSP plants the water steam cycle is operated on the basic concept of the ideal
Clausius-Rankine cycle. The primary working medium here is water/steam.
!"#$%&#'($)('*+%*+,-'./%.#$)01(#$$
Figure 9 represents all essential parts of a power block, and the T,s diagram for the
related Clausius-Rankine cycle.
Figure 9: Schematic drawing of a steam power plant and the T,s Diagram of a ClausiusRankine cycle [TDK].
The cycle starts with a reversible adiabatic compression (1.2) by the feed water
pump (P), the compression takes place in the liquid phase. Followed by an isobaric
heat addition (2.3) in the evaporator. The heat source in case of a CSPP is the
thermal energy provided by the solar field or the thermal storage. The heat switch
over takes place in several heat exchangers (KE). When reaching the evaporation
line (3) an isobaricisothermal heating up of the steam is taking place (3.4).
Followed by another isobaric heat adding (4.5) in the superheated (). After
superheating the steam a reversible adiabatic expansion (5.6) takes place in the
steam turbine (T), where the thermal energy is transformed into mechanical energy
and again transformed by the generator (G) into electrical energy. Finally the water
steam mix is isobaric condensates (6.1) in the condenser (Ko) until it reaches the
22
evaporation line (1). Bringing the thermal energy into the cycle between point (2) and
(5) can be described as [TFI; S.188]:
Qadd = m(h5 " h2 )
(2.39)
Where m represents the mass flow of the water/steam, and h5 and h2 are the specific
enthalpy values at point (5) and (2) out of graph 8. The enthalpy values can be either
taken from the water steam table or form the h,s diagram.
The transferred energy in the turbine (5.6) can be calculated by [TFI; S.187]:
P = m(h6 " h5 )
(2.40)
In the formula above m stand for the mass flow of the steam, h6 and h5 are the
enthalpy values in state (5) and (6). In the condenser the thermal energy of the
exhaust steam will be removed according to the function [TFI; S.188]:
Q0 = m(h1 " h6 )
(2.41)
The energy consumption of the feed water pump can be calculated by the
water/steam mass flow m together with the specific volume of the condensate and
the pressure increase between (1.2) [TFI; S.189]:
PP = m v1( p2 " p1)
(2.42)
In formula (2.42) Pp stands for the power consumption of the feed water pump, and
v1 is the specific volume of the condensate. From equations (2.30) through (2.42) it is
possible to calculate the thermodynamic efficiency of the ideal Clausius-Rankine
cycle. In most of the cases the power used by the feed water pump compared to the
energy generated in the steam turbine is very small. Therefore this power is not
taken into consideration when calculating the thermal efficiency [TDK; S.120]:
"th =
=1#
Q0
(2.43)
It becomes obvious that even in a reversible process cycle the thermal efficiency in
the Clausius-Rankine cycle is lower the efficiency in the Carnot cycle (equation 2.38).
!""#$#"%&'(#)*+,-.#)/0)%1,1#)&-)1+#)2(,3%&3%45,-6&-#)*7*(#!)
So far all processes in the cycle were considered as being reversible, but in reality
these processes are irreversible. The change of state in the working medium
(water/steam) in the feed water pump, the steam generator, the turbine and the
condenser are irreversible. This leads to differences in the operation points. Figure
23
10 displays this difference between a reversible and an irreversible cycle.
Figure 10: Real Celsius Rankine Process T,s Diagram [KWT].
The dotted line presents the real process, where the continuous line shows the ideal
process. The main differences, which can be acknowledged in figure 10, are:
a: irreversible compression in the feed water pump
b: pressure losses in the steam generator
c: irreversible expansion in the steam turbine
d: pressure losses in the condenser
The increase of pressure in the feed water pump is irreversible. Because of this an
increase of the entropy can be noticed. The change of state taking place in reality is
not from (1.2) it is from (1.2r). Here the pressure increase from p2 to p2r is the
same as the pressure reduction of the working medium in the steam generator,
caused by friction in the pipe. In modern steam plants the parasitic load of the feed
water pump can be assumed with around 2%-3% of the generated power. The
irreversible behavior in the steam generator is mainly dependent on the temperature
difference between the working medium and the heat transport fluid from the solar
field. Furthermore, the movement of the working medium through the steam
generator leads to a pressure drop. The lost energy of the working medium h2r-h2 has
to be added also by the feed water pump.
Depending on the irreversible expansion in the steam turbine only state (4r) is
reached at the outlet of the steam turbine. The additional heat, which has to be
removed in the condenser, logically is increasing according to:
" Q = h4 r # h 4
(2.44)
Consequently, the efficiency of the real Clausius-Rankine cycle in reduced by [TFI;

S.192]:
24
"Q
"#th =
Qadd
(2.45)
Finally the irreversible behavior in the condenser is dependent on the technical

necessary temperature difference and the pressure loss because of friction in the
piping system.
!89"/$&-.)/0)1+#)Clausius-Rankine)*7*(#)#00&*&#-*7))
The first possibility to increase the efficiency of the water steam cycle is increasing
the temperature and pressure of the working medium before entering the turbine.
Figure 11 shows the thermodynamic consequence of this procedure in a T,sdiagram.
Figure 11. Increasing of the main steam parameters [KWT].
For the processes 1234 and 1234 the amount of energy removed by the condenser
is equal, but the yield energy in the process 1234 is higher than in the process
1234. This is displayed in figure 11 by the greater area covered by the process
1234. For the process 1234 the removed heat in the condenser is less
compared to the other process cycles in the graph above. The temperature at point
(3) is mainly limited due to material reasons. However for solar thermal power plants
this procedure is less interesting because of the temperature which can be reached
by the collectors is around 400C nowadays, where in conventional plants the steam
temperature is already at around 600C. Furthermore, a limit in the scenario shown
above is the amount of wet steam allowed in the last stages of the steam turbine.
Due to erosion on the steam turbine blades, the amount of wet steam must be
reduced as much as possible.
Another optimization of the Clausius-Rankine cycle is possible, the so-called
reheating. This means that the working medium is reheated after a partial expansion
25
in the high-pressure stage of a steam turbine. The following T,s-diagram shows the
thermodynamic consequences of this procedure.
Figure 12: Water steam cycle with reheating [KWT].
The process (3.4) presents the expansion in the high-pressure stage of the steam
turbine (4.5) is the reheating process in the steam generator and (5.6) is again the
expansion in the intermediate and low-pressure stage of the turbine. The
thermodynamic efficiency, not including the feed water pump, can now be defined as
[KWT; S.70]:
"th = 1 #
T6 (s6 # s1 )
h3 # h1 + h5 # h4
(2.46)
Equation (2.46) shows that for increasing the thermal efficiency by using a reheat
system the average temperature of the added heat in the reheater has to be higher
than the average temperature of the cycle without a reheating system. The average
temperature of the basic process can be calculated as [KWT; S.70]:
Tzu,1 =
h3 " h1
s3 " s1
(2.47)
Where the average temperature for the reheating process is calculated [KWT; S.71]:
Tzu,2 =
h 5 " h4
# 0.5(T4 + T5 )
s5 " s4
(2.48)
In normal operation conditions the temperature for the reheating system is equal to
the temperature of the main steam temperature (T5=T3). Therefore, the efficiency will
be increased if Tzu2>=Tzu1. This lead to [KWT; S.72]:
T4 > 2Tzu,1 " T5
(2.49)
Another advantage of the reheating stage can be seen in the reduced amount of wet
steam in the low-pressure part of the steam turbine.
26
Increasing the cycle efficiency is also possible by adding a preheating system. It

heats up the feed water above the condensation temperature, and therefore the
efficiency of the Clausius-Rankine cycle gets closer to the efficiency of a Carnot
cycle. In practical use the steam for heating up the feed water comes from several
stages of the steam turbine.
Figure 13: Regenerative feed water preheating [KWT].
Figure 13 gives a schematic overview of the preheating process. It is clearly shown

that the heat is shifted from b to a by using the preheating system. In order to avoid
evaporation effects in the feed water the water is pressurized. The thermal efficiency
of the water steam cycle can now be calculated as [SLP; S.33]:
h3 # h1'
"th = 1 #
T1 (s4 # s1 )
(2.50)
Increase in efficiency mainly depends on the reduction of the mass flow through the
condenser. This results in a reduction of the condenser losses.
Another conclusion of the preheating system is that the steam mass flow to the highpressure part of the steam turbine is increasing where the steam flow in the low
pressure and intermediate pressure part is decreasing. This leads, depending on
sealing losses in the turbine, to an increase of the internal turbine efficiency.
2.4.3 Steam Turbine

A steam turbine is an axial turbo engine, in which the thermal energy stored in the
steam is converted into mechanical, mainly rotational energy. For the transition of the
enthalpy into kinetic energy the working medium is seeded up in the nozzles. These
nozzles are composed by the outlines of the guidance wheels. After this a switch of
flow direction of the working medium takes place by using the rotating wheels. As a
reaction of the impulse forces occurring now on the wheels, a torque is created and
transferred to the turbine shaft. The set of a guidance wheel and a rotational wheel is
27
called turbine stage. Figure 14 gives an overview of the construction concept of a

modern steam turbine.
Figure 14. Schematic drawing of a high-pressure turbine [KWT].
The construction schema above shows the inner cover a, the outer cover b, the
labyrinth sealing c and the turbine shaft d.
Furthermore, figure 14 is giving an overview of how the thermal energy stored in the
steam is transferred into the kinetic energy of the shaft. Simplified the power
produced by a steam turbine can be calculated out of the enthalpy drop over the
turbine, the steam mass flow, and the turbine efficiency [KWT; S.261]:
PT = "T m #h
(2.51)
The turbine efficiency *T is depending on several losses occurring during the energy
conversion in the turbine. For an easier understanding of the turbine efficiency we
can calculate the efficiency like [KWT; S261]:
"T = "i"mech
(2.52)
In formula (2.52) *i is considered as the inner efficiency. It is depending on losses

occurring on the wheels, which are manly friction losses. Gap losses depending on
the design of the turbine and ventilation losses are also recognized in this factor.
Furthermore, losses depending on wet steam and losses occurring during the steam
are leaving the turbine because of rearrangement in the flow direction. As a
benchmark the inner efficiency for modern turbine can be assumed to be between
93% and 95%.
The mechanical efficiency *mech includes steam losses in the labyrinth sealing as well
as friction losses between shaft and bearings. Because of using modern hydraulic
bearings for carrying the turbine shaft the efficiency here can be assumed whit 98%
or 99%. All the assumptions above are related to the design point of the steam
28
turbine, which is normally at the maximum rated power of the turbine.

The turbine power however is controlled by the steam mass flow. This is affecting the
efficiency as well as the net power output of the generator. The relationship between
the steam mass flows for the different operation modes (full load or part load) are
described by the cone law of Stodola [KWT; S.261]:
mT
m0
p"2T # p$2T T" 0

p"2 0 # p$2 0 T"T
(2.53)
Here # stand for the entrance of the turbine and % stands for the turbine outlet, 0
characterizes the full load operation, where T represents part load behavior. Over the
years, several possibilities like fixed pressure operation, sliding control or equivalent
sliding pressure have been established for the control of the steam turbine. Based on
equations (2.53), the operation mode of the steam turbine, and also the part load
behavior of a CSPP can be assumed.
This chapter has outlined theoretical relations used for the developed model
explained in chapter 4. However not only were technical factors taken into
consideration for the simulation but also a recourse assessment for CSP plants in
North Africa is undertaken in the next. !
.
29
3. Recourse Assessment for CSPP

3.1 Land Recourse Assessment
Using numerous criteria such as ground structure, water bodies, slope, shifting sand,
protected and/or restricted areas, forest, and agricultural covered areas allows for the
detection of land resources, which would permit the placement of concentrating solar
collector fields. For collecting these data sets from the DLR are used, witch finally all
combined in order to yield a map of usable areas. Some of the used criteria can be
seen as optional. For instance, tourist areas or agricultural areas can be transformed
into potential sites for CSP plants. Other information like slope of the terrain or water
availability can be understood as compulsory criteria. For example if the slope of the
terrain is greater than 2.1% the placement of a CSP plant will be, considering the
state of the current technologies, impossible. Table 1 shows the compulsive and the
optional criteria an area must fulfill for being considered as a possible construction
site for a CSP plant. [SI; S.39]
Table 1: Compulsive and optional criteria for the exclusion of land used for CSP plants [SI|.
Exclusion Criteria
Compulsive
Optional
Slope of Terrain
>2.1%
Land Cover
Sea
Inland Water
X
X
Forest
Swamp
Agriculture
Rice Culture
Hydrology
Permanent Inland Water
Non-Permanent Inlet Water
Regularly Flooded Area
Geomorphology
Shifting Sand, Dunes
Security Zone for Shifting Sands 10km
X
X
30
Salt Pans
X
Glaciers
Security Zone for Glaciers
Land Use
Settlements
Airport
Oil or Gas Fields
Mine, Quarry
Protected Area
Restricted Area
In this work, all criteria, whether compulsive or optional, are used for evaluating the
capability of an area. Out of table 1 it can be noticed that the criteria can be
summarized into five major topics, which will be described in the following
subchapters. Furthermore a minimum direct irradiation as well as the existing grid
system is discussed as possible site exclusion criteria.
3.1.1 Slope
The digital elevation map shown in figure 15 presents the slope of the terrain. As it
was mentioned previously a slope of more than 2.1% excludes a site for installation
of a CSP plant. Providing elevations in a 1 x 1 km2 resolution, the digital elevation
model from GLOBE is used for determination of the slope. [SI; S41]
Figure 15: Digital elevation map for determination of the slope [SI].
The figure 15 highlights a slope of greater than 2.1% in bright red. Smaller slopes are
displayed in different tones from white, which shows flat terrain to dark blue, which
stands for a slope of 2.1%. Beside of a few areas in Morocco and Egypt no restriction
31
by the slope of the terrain can be noticed in North Africa.
3.1.2 Land cover

The information about the land cover is extracted from the land cover
characterization (GLCC) database. This database uses the normalized difference
vegetation index (NDVI). The NDVI divides the land cover into ten classes, which are
comprehensive to the global ecosystem's classification. [SI; S43]
Figure 16: The land cover in the Euro-Mediterranean Region [SI].
Figure 16 displays the 10 classes of land use for the EU-Mediterranean region. The
area of interest in North Africa is largely covered by desert and semi desert. In
relation to table 1 numerous sites can be see as accessible areas for a CSPP
according to the land cover information.
3.1.3 Hydrology
Data sets for rivers, lakes etc. are also extracted from the GLCC database.
Figure 17: The Hydrology of the Euro-Mediterranean Region [SI].
Map 17 shows the most significant hydrological features in the Euro-Mediterranean
32
region. Small rivers are not taken into account simply because of the fact that shifting
a plant site of a maximum of 500 meters in any direction is consider as suitable. [SI;
S43] Large rivers, however, mostly near the sea-confluence are taken into account.
Regions where no data sets are available are marked red. As a final point the areas
prone to flooding are displayed in the satellite image. Likewise subtracted from the
map above, the hydrology will not lead to a great exclusion of obtainable sites in
North Africa.
3.1.4 Geomorphologic features

Due to their properties and physical conditions some areas due to their soils are not
suitable for erecting concentrating solar collectors. Dynamic structures like shifting
sand dunes can be taken as prohibiting areas for CSP plants simply not providing a
compound strong enough for the erection of the pylons needed for the CSPP.
Taking into consideration the capability to provide additional safety zones around
glaciers and sand dunes has to be accounted for. The movement of a sand dune can
be assumed to be 200m/year. If the operation time of the CSP plant is judged with 50
years a security zone of at least 10 km around sand dunes must be maintained. The
restricted area around the glaciers must be reviewed individually for each glacier and
is not part of this work. Spatial information about sand dunes and salt areas are
extracted from the Digital Soil Map of the World (DSMW). The spatial resolution of
the map amounts to approximately 10 x 10 km 2. The DSMW includes 26 groups of
soil types, 106 soil types, as well as showing some non-soil features, including the
sand dunes and salt areas of interest. [SI; S44].
Figure 18: Geomorphologic exclusion criteria in the Euro-Mediterranean region [SI].
Figure 18 gives an impression of the geomorphology characteristic in the EuroMediterranean region. Shifting sand dunes are marked yellow. These regions are
considered as exclusion areas for CSPP plants. Here for the first time a larger
33
amount of restricted area in the North African region can be noticed.
3.1.5 Protected areas

According to the definition published by the World Conservation Union (WCU) a
protected area is: An area of land and/or sea especially dedicated to the protection
and maintenance of biological diversity, and of natural and associated cultural
resources, and managed though legal or other effective means. [SI; S45].
Areas,
which meet the universal guidelines contained in this definition, can be seen as
eliminated areas for CSP plants and presented in figure 19.
Figure 19: Protected areas of the Euro-Mediterranean Region [SI].
However in practice the precise purpose for witch protected areas are managed
differs greatly. Therefore the WCU has defined a series of six protected area
management categories, listed in the legend of map 19. The six area types are strict
nature reserved area, wilderness area, national parks, natural monuments,
habitat/species management areas, protected land/seascape, and managed
resource protected areas [SI; S.46]. The restrictions for erecting the CSP plants in
North Africa therefore will cause it to be limited to a few sites in Morocco, Algeria,
Libya and Egypt.
3.1.6 Industry and Population

Figure 20 displays data about industry and highly populated places. This map also
includes oil or gas fields, mines, quarry airports and desalination plants. The data set
is based on the Digital Chart of the World ASCII.
34
Figure 20: Industry and population of the Euro-Mediterranean region [SI].
Still a great restriction for available CSP sides in North Africa based on industry and
population criterias can be not noticed. [SI; S47]
3.1.7 Technical potential

The data sets explained previously are used to develop maps showing possible
restricted areas for concentrated solar power plants based respectively on land
configuration. Another powerful criteria is the yearly average of direct normal
irradiance at a certain location. This is displayed in the following EU-Mediterranean
map.
Figure 21: Annual direct normal irradiation in kWh/m /y on non-excluded areas in the EuroMediterranean Region [SI].
A site is considered to have a technical potential for a CSP plant when the yearly
average direct irradiation is at least 2000 kWh/m 2/year. In general solar thermal
electricity generation is also possible with a lower irradiation. Taking into
consideration economical factors, CSP first start to become feasible with a higher
35
irradiation. However, the 2000 kwh/m2/year represents a suitable value for operating
a CSP plant. Furthermore, the image 21 can be seen as the resultant map including
all criteria mentioned previously. Based on this map it is possible to calculate the
accessible area in km2 for the countries of interest. In this thesis a closer look at five
countries of North Africa, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia and Egypt is under taken.
In the following description only these countries and their potential are taken into
consideration for any calculation. Table 2 presents the maximum available areas with
a direct normal irradiation of greater than 2000 kWh/m2/year. [SI; S48]
2
Table 2: Areas for CSP in km available in the MENA countries for different DNI Classes [SI].
DNI Classes
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
2000-2099
6083
6237
9288
7773
206
2100-2199
5650
34142
6445
25331
1481
2200-2299
10875
29006
9864
109712
16846
2300-2399
17194
39462
19464
176659
40969
2400-2499
34348
222860
22823
152875
41347
2500-2599
30569
384570
11637
183342
44613
2600-2699
18930
428487
240
155513
98004
2700-2800+
48074
277580
373665
354972
TOTAL
171724
1422344
1184870
598439
79761
All data sets presented in this chapter are also available on a global scale and
collected be the German Aerospace Center.
Figure 22: Annual direct normal irradiation on non-excluded areas in global scale [SI].
For further scenario analyses the North African parts out of map 22 are used (see
chapter 4). It can be seen that sometimes areas whit even a high irradiation are not
36
available because of other excluding criterias.
3.1.8 High voltage Grid

In order to supply the electrical energy produced by a CSPP plant a connection point
to the transmission grid must be within a certain distance. This DESERTEC scenario
includes high voltage direct current transmission lines. In this work only the actual
existing high voltage and extra high voltage grid systems are taken into
consideration. The transmission grid not only consists of high voltage lines, but also
of transformers, switchgear and other electrical equipment. If power plants must be
connected to high voltage grids over a long distance enormous investment costs
must be taken into account. But not only equipment like cables, transformers and
switchyards are expensive: the transmission losses over long distances in AC grid
systems have to be taken into consideration. With the idea to minimize the
connection costs and minimizing the transmission losses, the distance from the
power plant to the existing high voltage Grid in North Africa has to be very short.
Therefore the existing high voltage grid like it is presented in figure 23 gives another
possibility of excluding possible areas for erecting concentrated solar power plants.
Figure 23: Electrical Transmission System Network of North Africa [GEMI]
For a more detailed description of the national grid systems in Morocco, Algeria,
Tunisia, Libya and Egypt see appendix B. The images presented in the appendix are
used for the simulation explained in chapter 4.2. The existing grid offers already the
possibility to export energy from North Africa to Europe. Syria as well as Morocco
having connection points to European transmission systems. Figure 24 giving a
schematic overview of the interconnection points between the MENA region and the
EU.
37
Figure 24: Envisage Mediterranean interconnections with Europe [GEMI].
For this work it is assumed that the transmission capacity of the existing grid s
sufficient for transporting the electrical energy produced by CSP plants between
North Africa and Europe.
The finale side availability is now based on the access to infrastructure, ground and
land characteristic as well as a minimum availability of direct normal irradiation.
3.2 MED-CSP SCENARIO CG/HE

The scenario of the MED-CSP study is used in this work for further calculations. The
study analyzes the demand of electricity and water in the MENA countries until 2050.
The center of attention in this work is the electrical energy production by CSP plants
in the North Africa region. The water demand will be only briefly summarized and is
used for computing of the cost potential for electrical production.
The CG/HE scenario is based on the assumption that economic growth rate of the
MENA countries is sufficiently high enough to close the gap with the USA per capital
national income to 50% by 2050. In other words most of the MENA countries will
reach an income per capital equivalent to most of the states in central Europe
nowadays. Along with the high economic growth rate a sharp increase in the
efficiency of the electrical sector is assumed. This leads to a slightly lower growth of
the electrical demand in the next decades. This scenario is called in the MED-CSP
study: Closing the gap, High efficiency gains (CG/HE) and is the most optimistic
scenario within the MED-CSP study. Nevertheless, nowadays most of the Maghreb
countries are well on this track. For example, Egypt only has to accelerate its
economic growth a bit in order to reach the goals of the scenario. To make the
assumption more realistic the economic growth rate in the CG/HE scenario is limited
38
to a maximum of 7% per year per country. [MCSP; S.71] The principal factors the
CG/HE scenario is based on are explained in this chapter.
3.2.1 Growth of population

The increase in the population until 2050 is projected based on the data sets World
Population Prospect of the United Nations for intermediate growth published 2002.
Furthermore data from the German federal statistical office are taken into account.
Figure 25 displays the results of this revise for countries in North Africa. .
Figure 25: Population growth in North Africa by countries [MCSP].
The population in the North African countries will be increased to 250 million people
in the year 2050. As it is shown in picture 25 the major share with a bit more than
50% of the population is in Egypt. Also the ratio between rural and urban population
is taken into consideration. Here Egypt has the highest amount of people living in
rural areas compared to Libya where the ratio of rural population to urban population
is very low. For all other North African countries the ratio is close to the MENA
average with 0.3 in the year 2050. [MCSP; S.76]
3.2.2 Growth of Economy

The MED-CSP study uses the gross national income (GNI) in purchasing power
parity (PPA) US$-2001 per capital as an indicator for the economic growth of a
country. Nevertheless the gross domestic product gives a better overview of the
economic development within a country, where the GNI can be better used to
indicate the income of the population. However, there is a close link between these
two factors. As a benchmark for the calculated scenarios until 2050, the average
annual growth rate of 1.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capital (in 1995
US$(PPA)) for the US and Canada (2000-2030) according to the reference scenario
39
of the IEA (2002) is used. The restriction of the annual growth rate within 7% GDP in
the CG scenario seems to be an upper boundary on long-term growth streaming
possibility. All societies in North Africa should be able to master these scenario
goals. The countries in North Africa also have differences in groups according to the
income of the population. The first group at this time is the middle-income
countries, containing Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt. The second group of interest is
Countries that depend to a great extent on export of energy resources; here Algeria
and Libya are the two countries in North Africa. For the countries in the first group
the GDP growth rate calculated in the MED-CSP study seems to be very optimistic,
where the growth rate of the second group is mainly dependent on the world energy
market. The optimistic assumption in the scenario can be seen in the fact that the
GDP/capital in 2050 for a country in the second group will be well above the current
GDP/capital of the USA. For countries in the first group the GDP/capita will be
between the current level of France and the USA in 2050 [MEDC; S.83]. However
the CG scenario has been chosen in order to show the maximum potential for CSP
electrical generation in these countries.
Figure 26: Average GDP growth rate between 2003 and 2050 for North African countries
[MCSP].
Finally, graphic 26 shows the average GDP growth rate for countries in North Africa.
Based on the economic growth the installed capacity respective to the electrical
demand for each country can be evaluated.
3.2.3 Electricity Demand

The growth of the economy nowadays is directly linked to a growth in the electrical
demand. Furthermore, with a growth in the population a growth of the overall
electrical demand can be assumed. The MED-CSP study calculates the electricity
40
demand until 2050 from the factors of GDP growth and the increase of population.
[MEDC; S.93].
Figure 27: Energy consumption in North Africa until 2050 [MCSP].
Figures 27 plot the final results out of the analysis, in the MED-CSP study, for North
Africa. The figure shows the power consumption per capita per year based on the
CG/HE scenario.
3.2.4 Scenario for Energy Security

Based on the data set explained in the previous chapters, a qualitative annex
scenario for different renewable energy systems is developed in the MED-CSP
study. The scenario is specific for each country, taking into account the differences in
demand and supplies structures and has a time frame until 2050. The scenarios
developed in the MED-CSP study highlights methods to bring demand and
production together in an economical, ecological and social way. A cost optimizing
calculation for the different kinds of technologies in a conventional way is not
included, because of the difficulties to do so for an outlook of the next 40 years.
The following parameters are taken into account as boundary conditions, for
estimating the potential of the renewable energy sources in North Africa. First the
availability of renewable energy resources, like wind, solar irradiation or biomass.
The maximum growth rate for the production capacity of each renewable energy
technology is considered. As mentioned above the population growth together with
the economic growth of each country has a significant influence on the distribution
between the different technologies and is considered as well. Furthermore, a
scenario for the peak load and the resulted spinning reserve is evaluated. The
amount of renewing/repowering of existing power plant capacities, within the financial
possibilities and the cost of electric power production with renewable technologies
41
compared to conventional techniques is also part of the scenario analysis. Lastly

political incentives and economical boundary conditions as well as the grid
infrastructure and additional cost for establishing the necessary infrastructure are
taken into account. All of these parameters cannot be seen as fixed values, they
have to be understood in the scenario analysis as dynamic factors. [MEDC; S111]
The factors collectively lead in the end to an assumption of how the electrical energy
production in 2050 can look like, separated by different types of technology. Figure
28 presents these for all countries of the MENA region together.
Figure 28: Electricity production in the MENA region until 2050 [MCSP].
It can be noticed that until 2030 oil and gas are playing an important role in the
energy mix of the MENA countries. But after the depletion of these natural resources
the importance of the conventional technologies is decreasing. At the same time
CSP plants will become more significant. One reason for the strong increase in the
electrical production capacity of CSP technology is the possibility to store parts of the
thermal energy and operate the CSPP with certain modification within close to 8000
base load hours a year. Consequently, CSP can be used for the purposes of grid
stability operating as a base load plant as well as peak load plant and shows a lot of
the flexibility conventional plants are offering nowadays.
Out of the results presented in the figure above the tentative CSP potential for 2050
is estimated. The MED-CSP study also includes scenario analysis for water demand
in the countries of the MENA region. This part is only considered, in the thesis, as not
available potential at the cost for CSP electrical production. Due to the fact that the
MED-CSP study sees CSP plants also as an excellent possibility for sea water
desalination plants. Finally the data sets, which get derived out of the CG/HE
scenario, are summarized in the following table for the five countries of North Africa.
42
Table 3: Concentrated solar thermal potential in North Africa [MCSP].
Country
Tentative CSP 2050

[TWh/a]
Coastal potential
[TWh/a]
Water demand 2050

[TWh/a]
Morocco
150
300
1.2
Algeria
165
57
2.8
Tunisia
43
352
Libya
22
498
25
Egypt
395
496
265
Only for Egypt the coast potential for electrical production is limited. The data
summarized in Table 3 are used as input parameters for the simulation program
presented in chapter four.
3.3 Weather data

Further integral parts of the simulation program are the weather data sets. In this
thesis the information is taken from the COSMO-EU model provided by the German
meteorological service. The irradiation data is calculated out of the yearly time series
data with an hourly resolution and a spatial resolution of around 7 x7km2. But not
only radiation data but also ambient condition information like ambient temperature,
ambient pressure, wind speed and its direction are essential for the performance
calculation of CSP plants. This information is also extracted out of the COSMO-EU
database with the same resolution used for the irradiation data. The numerical
weather prediction model covers the area of Europe and parts of North Africa. The
following image shows that a complete area of North Africa is not part of the
database. The limit of the map respective to the model in geo coordinates are for the
left corner bottom 27.20N 9.14W for the right corner top 65.58N 34.24W, the right
corner bottom is 26.12N 34.24E and the right side top is 62.40N 63.47E. [COE;
S22]
For all calculations about CSPP plants in North Africa the two bottom points are the
limitation for the area taken into consideration. All data sets for the ambient
conditions and the solar radiation are completely available for the year 2007.
43
Figure 29: Area for the CSOMO-EU model displaying topographic height in meter [COE].
3.3.1 Irradiation data sets

The data used for calculating the direct normal irradiation is getting out of the
information delivered by the COSMO-EU model. Therefore the information of the
short wave radiation at ground high (ASOB_S) and the albedo (ALB_RAD) also at
ground level are used. The ASOB_S value is the timely average of the short wave
radiation computed by a time horizon of 1 hour. For example if ASOB_S at the time t
is the actual value then the information provided by the database is calculated like
[COE; S.54]:
ASOB _ S =
1 TA
" ASOB _ S(t),
TA 0
TA = 1h
(3.1)
Here TA represents the time horizon of computation. The other value ALB_RAD is an
actual magnitude takes in consideration the type of soil, the ground humidity, the
snow and crop cover. Out of these values the global horizontal irradiation for the area
of interest can be evaluated by [COE; S.54]:
I=
ASOB _ S
(1 " ALB _ RAD)
(3.2)
I represents the global horizontal irradiation, where ALB_RAD is the actual albedo
value and ASOB_S is the timely average of one hour for the short wave radiation at
ground. However putting together an average value with an actual value is not best
practice. Therefore the so produced values will be judged by a sensitive analysis with
a data set, provided by the Helioclime-3 (HC3) file.
44
Figure 30: Global horizontal irradiation calculated out of the COSMO-EU data compared with
global horizontal irradiation data from HC3 database.
The green part in graph 30 shows the global horizontal irradiation calculated out of
the COSMO-EU data ASOB_S and ALB_RAD for a location 31N 29E in the year
2007. The yellow part is the global horizontal radiation for the same location and year
supplied by the HC3 database. Finally the red curve is the difference between the
HC3 information and the data from the COSMO-EU model. At first a displacement of
the data by two hours, was noticed. In order to get comparable results the time line
for the COSMO-EU model was shifted 2 hours ahead. With this change the yearly
global horizontal irradiation is calculated. When the HC3 data, with a value of
2,046kWh/m2 per year, is subtracted the COSMO-EU information leads to 1,902
kWh/m2/per year. Here the difference is only 7.2% in relation to the HC3 value. For
getting a better idea of the differences, the yearly average is evaluated with a higher
irradiation of 17.6 W/m2 in the HC3 model. Where the maximum difference is noticed
with 817 W/m2 higher irradiation in the COSMO-EU model on the other hand a day
with 740 W/m2 higher irradiation in the HC3 data are noticed. The differences are
resulting in the different ways of evaluating the normal global horizontal data in the
two models. For the ongoing processing the accuracy of the COSMO-EU data
considered as sufficient.
Out of global horizontal irradiation data sets, the direct normal irradiation used for
further processing can be appointed. For that reason first the hourly clearance index
is defined by [SETP; S72]:
(3.3)
45
Where I represents the global horizontal irradiance at ground height and I0 is the
extraterrestrial radiation calculated out of the solar constant with 1,377 W/m2. By
using the hourly diffuse fraction model with correction for variability and surface
albedo the relation between the global horizontal irradiance, and the diffuse part can
be calculated:
(3.4)
By knowing the diffuse part Id of the global horizontal irradiation also the direct
horizontal irradiation can be evaluated according to:
Ib = I " Id
(3.5)
Finally the direct normal irradiation (DNI) is defined by [SETP; S.24]:
DNI =
Ib
cos(" z )
(3.6)
The following image displays the relation between I, Ib and DNI calculated from the
COSMO-EU data at the location of 31N and 29E for the year 2007.
Figure 31: I,b and DNI for 31N 29E in the year 2007 simulated by using COSMO-EU data.
Two cloudy days in the beginning of summer can be indentified in figure 31. The DNI
values calculated in this way are used for the performance evaluation of CSPP in
chapter 4.3
3.3.2 Ambient data sets

The ambient data temperature, pressure, wind speed, and wind direction at ground
for further calculations are also taken from the COSMO-EU model. For all these data
46
sets the spatial resolution is also 7 x 7km2 and the timely resolution is one hour for
the year 2007. The different data sets will be explained in the following by using the
monthly averages for the data sets of Egypt. Consequently the next figure shows the
monthly averages for June 2007
Figure 32: Monthly average ambient data for Egypt June 2007 provided by the COSMO-EU
database.
The averages shown in graph 33 above are calculated out of the hourly values
provided by the weather prediction model. The resultant wind speed (W_10) is
computed out of zonal patter (U_10) and the meridonal component (V_10) by using
their geometrical relations. The index 10 refers to the elation height of 10 meter. As a
further factor the actual wind direction is provided out of the database. The
atmosphere pressure at ground height (PS) is calculated in the numerical model by
extrapolation of the prediction of the overall pressure at the lowest modal pattern. At
2-meter elevation height the temperature (T_2M) information is provided.
All the data sets presented in this chapter can be seen as input parameters for the
simulation model presented in the next chapter. Sometimes theses data sets have to
be adapted in order to fit for the following scenario and performance simulation of
CSPP in North Africa. The adaptation is explained together with the structure of the
simulation program in the next chapter.
47
4. Simulation Program
4.1 Program overview
The intention of the simulation is an accurate reproduction of the thermodynamic
processes occurring in any parabolic trough concentrated solar power plant located
in North Africa. At the moment, not even one CSP plant, exclusively powered by
solar energy is installed in this region. Consequently, predictions for the future have
to be undertaken. In order to make these predictions reasonable, information about
potential and available areas in the North African countries have to be emblazed and
processed in a realistic way for a further performance calculation. The following flow
chart gives a common overview of how this is put into execution.
Figure 33: General overview of the Matlab program for CSPP calculation.
48
Three main program parts can be identified from the figure above. In the beginning,
several classes of information about land use, weather etc. are being processed and
prepared for further calculations. The second part is the computation of the thermal
and resulting electrical output produced by a CSPP. In the last section it is possible
to fit the CSPP operation condition to predefined load curves depending on the
maximum storage capacity. Based on theses optimization results the effective load
carrying capacity (ELCC) and the capacity factor (CC) are evaluated.
Graph 34 gives a more comprehensive overview of the program structure,
highlighting the three different parts of the program. The green part shows the CSP
scenario analysis for North Africa based on the results of the MED-CSP study
[MCSP] and the GIS input data. The orange part presents the final operation
optimization and the blue part represents the thermodynamic performance
simulation. Furthermore, the white parts in the sketch demonstrate the basic options
for the program user.
Figure 34: Basic program structure.
The first initiation is the adjustment for a scenario simulation according to the MEDCSP study including the GIS database, or an individual performance calculation of a
49
CSPP at a certain location. Using the individual simulation modus the manual
settings for the performance calculations are, the selection of a cooling system. The
agenda offers here the three possibilities, wet cooling, evaporation cooling and dry
cooling system. Furthermore, the use of a back cooling system has to be stated. Also
the orientation of the solar collectors must be adjusted, by setting an angel between
north-south and east-west orientation. Additionally, the storage size and the collector
field area have to be adapted by the settings for solar multiple one to four. Finally,
the load profile for the plants and the time horizon for the simulation have to be set
as well as the geographical location. The number of geographical points set here will
be the number of plants calculated by the simulation program. Table 4 summarizes
these basic input parameters.
Table 4: Basic input parameters for individual simulation of CSPP.
Input parameters
Options
Input
Wet, Evaporation, Dry
123
Back cooling system
Yes/no
1/0
Collector orientation
Angle in rad
Vector format
Solar multiple
From 1 to 4
1234
Load profile
24 hours load profile
Vector format
Time frame
Date including
e.g. 12-March-2010
Latitude and longitude
Vector format
Cooling system
Location
In the following program description it is assumed that using the GIS database and
the input information from the MED-CSP scenario is adjusted.
4.2 GIS database and scenario processing

The scenario analysis is the first automatic computation step in the simulation
program. This subprogram is calculating according to input data such as the
resource map explained in chapter 3 and economical outlines from the GC/HE
scenario the number of plants in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. In
addition, available locations are evaluated and the CSP plants being allocated. If the
location for a plant is set as engaged the program extracts out of the COSMO-EU
database the required weather data sets.
Figure 35 displays the flow diagram of the GIS based scenario simulation process
(highlighted in flow chart 34 green). Due to the long computing time which is based
on the high amount of processed data, it is possible to do the calculations for coast
distance and grid distance only in the first time running the program and loading the
50
data for all available areas in the following runs. However, here all process steps will
be explained. The yellow path in the following chart leads the way through these
process steps. The input parameters displayed in white are explained in chapter 3.
Figure 35: Basic program structure scenario analysis.
Also for these computations some basic design parameters have to be adjusted
manually. The setting of these input parameters is undertaken in the main script
called CSPP and shown in the following table.
Table 5: Input parameter for scenario analysis.
Input parameters
Collector orientation
Solar multiple
Load profile
Year of interest
Options
Input
Angle in rad
Vector format
SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4
Number
hourly load profile
Vector format
Year
e.g. 2015
4.2.1 Scenario Processing

The first process step evaluates the installed capacity per country and its
transformation in a number of CSP plants for the year of interest. The installed
51
capacity by CSP plants in the MENA region until 2050 is based on the MED-CSP
Scenario CG/HE1 [MCSP]. The average plant size for the performance simulation is
considered with 200 MWel gross capacity. By using the actual installed capacity in
the years 2005 and 2010 as well as the predicted capacity in 2050, the annex curve
displayed in figure 36 for the North African countries is generated.
Figure 36: Number of CSPP according to MED CSP Scenario.
For developing the curves the exponential curve fitting function out of Matlab statistic
toolbox is used. As it is shown in figure 36 the annex scenarios are expected for all
countries to be exponential. For Egypt and Morocco always one existing CSP plant in
2010 is set, which leads to a faster increase of the annex curve. In this case ISCCS
are considered as pure CSP plants. Together with the year of interest, set in the
input parameters, the numbers of plants for the scenario analysis is evaluated out of
the annex graph.
4.2.2 Site evaluation

The map for positioning the CSP plants is designed out of map 22 presented in
chapter 3. The part representing North Africa was cut out and geo-referenced by
using the software QGIS [QGIS]. The boarders of the countries Morocco, Algeria,
Tunisia, Libya and Egypt are defined according to shape files of these countries. The
finalized map was exported from QGIS to Matlab. Due to the fact that the yearly
irradiation data presented in the original map is not of interest for the scenario
analysis the map is transferred from a three-canal RGB picture into a gray-scaled
image by using the Matlab mapping toolbox. All these procedures are resulting in the
map displayed in Figure 37.
52
Figure 37: Black-white map for evaluating suitable areas for CSPP.
The map above consists of 535*2199 pixel points, where each black point is
presenting a suitable area for a CSPP. In geo-coordinates the map is stretch from
longitude 16.78W to 37.95E and latitude 18.76N to 39.47N. The coastline in the
figure above is designed by using the predefined Vector-layers named coast out of
the Matlab mapping toolbox [MWS].
To indentify the best suitable areas for CSP plants in the next simulation steps the
available areas close to the coastline get evaluated. This can be attractive because
of advantages like unlimited water availability or a benefiting from existing grid
systems, which are normally fully developed along the coastline in North Africa. As
mentioned above the coastline in Matlab is displayed by means of a vector layer. The
distance between the stating points of each vector and the available area pixel is
calculated. The distance between two geographical points can be defined by
dist = acos(sin(lat1) * sin(lat2) + cos(lat1) * cos(lat2) * cos(lon1 " lon2)) * 6370 (4.1)
Here the value of 6370 is equivalent to the mean radius of the earth. The available
areas with a minimum distance from the coastline are, taking into consideration that
the coastline consist of connected vectors, all black points in a radius equivalent to
the length of the coastline vector. All pixel in this circle are considered as available
coast areas. Separated by country Morocco has 25019, Algeria 165993, Tunisia
3615, Libya 19378, and Egypt 10482 potential areas for CSP plants close to the
coast.
In the next step the available areas, within a certain distance to the existing high
voltage grid in North Africa are selected. Many of the available areas, especially with
a very high yearly average irradiation value, are located somewhere in the desert,
without any connection to infrastructure for distributing the electrical energy. Due to
this fact and the high investment costs for transmission grids the distance of all
available areas form the existing grid system is evaluated. Based on the grid maps
53
presented in the appendix B a vector-layer for each country illustrating the high
voltage grid is created in QGIS and exported to Matlab for the following computation.
Figure 38 displays the North African map including the yearly average irradiation and
the vector layers for the high voltage grid.
Figure 38: Schematic drawing of high voltage grid in North Africa.
The color code for the irradiation data is displayed in figure 22 in chapter 3. Here the
colored map is only used to show the high number of well suitable areas without any
access to the necessary infrastructure. The calculation of the distance between the
electric grid and the available areas is designed in the same way like the distance
evaluation for the coastal areas. In a first approach the distance between the
potential CSPP areas and the electric grid is set to not more then 25 km. This leads
to a theoretic potential of 36060 sides in Algeria 212433 in Egypt 341837 in Libya,
514686 in Morocco and 51090 in Tunisia. Therefore the maximum installed capacity
per country is displayed in diagram 39.
.
Figure 39: Possible installed gross capacity per country per country. Simulated with a grid
distance of 25km and 200 MWel installed gross capacity per pixel.
The installed capacity shown in figure 39 is based on the assumption that on each
54
suitable pixel a CSPP with a gross capacity of 200 MW el is installed.
4.2.3 Side depositing

In the following step, the simulation is depositing the CSPP plants for the scenario
year of interest in the countries using the predefined criteria. First, the intersection
between the available regions along the coastline and the areas fulfilling the criteria
of minimum grid distance is determined. In the next calculation step, the installed
capacity of CSP plants used for desalination according to the MED-CSP scenario
CG/HE is removed from these theoretical coast potentials. In case there is sufficient
potential of useable areas left, 80% of the CSP plants are distributed along the
coastline. In case there are not enough available areas, like in Tunisia for the year
2050 only the amount of available areas left along the coast is used. The rest of the
concentrated solar power plants are distributed around all other qualified areas
taking only into consideration the minimum distance towards the high voltage grid.
Therefore all plants are fulfilling the criteria, maximum distance of 25 km to the
existing transmission grid and all other land use criterias explained in chapter 3.
Because of using the ambient data from the COSMO-EU model explained in chapter
3 the available areas have to be cut at the latitude of 27N. The positioning itself is
done by a random permutation according to [MFL; S.364]:
" n%
Cw (n;k) = $ ' for(k ( n)
#k&
(4.2)
In this formula, k are the available areas and n is the number of plants, here the
assumption is that they are always more areas available per country than plants will
be erected according to the scenario. Finally, a map consisting the grid the available
areas and the CSP plants, is plotted for a visual control.
Figure 40: Irradiation map of North Africa, CSPP distribution for scenario 2030.
The pixel, where the CSPP are located are marked red. At this point of the simulation
no separation between the different plants according to cooling system and other
55
operational conditions are undertaken, simply the geo coordinates for the plants are
set. The next map gives a detailed view of the area around Cairo in the year 2030.
Figure 41: Irradiation map of North Egypt, CSPP distribution for scenario 2030 (Egypt).
For further calculations the distance between the plants and the coast as well as the
Nile River is appointed. By knowing this distance it is possible to assign a specific
cooling system for each CSP plant. This is of interest because of the significant
performance influence by the cooling system. All plants along the coastline
supposedly have a wet cooling system for optimal performance. At a distance of 1.5
times of the minimum coast distance an evaporation system is assumed. All other
plants are simulated with dry cooling systems. The next map displays this distribution
for the year 2020.
Figure 42: Irradiation map of North Africa, CSPP with cooling system distribution for the
scenario 2020.
In picture 42 the blue marked plants are water cooled, the green ones are cooled by
an evaporation cooling system and the red points represents plants equipped with
dry cooling systems.
56
4.3 CSP Performance Simulation

Based on the input data, either by scenario simulation or by manual input, the
performance of all predefined CSP plants is calculated. Therefore, each performance
evaluation is processed separately. After each loop the data of interest are stored for
further processing. This devolution is shown in the following flow diagram.
Figure 43: Basic Program structure performance calculation.
The program path in the figure above is also highlighted in yellow. All steps have to
be performed in order to calculate the electric power output of the CSPP. The two
predefined process steps water steam table and Mollier h-x-diagram are only shortly
summarized in this chapter. The extraction of the ambient data sets and the
calculation for the specific DNI values at the predefined location is explained in
chapter 3.3.
4.3.1 Solar field simulation

Based on the input data the first program step evaluates, all necessary angles for
predicting the sun position at a specific location and time. All geometrical
calculations, necessary for describing the sun's position are explained in chapter 2.1
57
Solar geometry. In the simulation, 0 longitude refers to the Greenwich meridian.

Furthermore, it is assumed that all solar fields are equipped with a one axis tracking
system. For the case that the collector is erected in north-south direction the
calculation of the collector slope at each hour is simplified by the definition [DLS;
S.6]
tan " = tan # z sin $ s
(4.3)
Here " represents the angle of slope. Figure 44 displays the solar height, the
incidence angle and the tilt angle simulated in hourly resolution for the location 31N
29E at the 31st of March 2007. The collector rows are erected in north south
direction.
st
Figure 44: Incidence angle, tilt angle and solar height at 31N 20E at 21 , March 2007.
It can be noticed that the tracking system first starts with sunrise and stops with
sunset. The maximum allowed angle for the system is 90 in east west direction.
To proceed, the design parameters for the solar field must define. These parameters
are essential for predicting the thermal energy output of the solar field. The design
parameters have to be set manually before starting the simulation. Values for the
common LS-3 system are shown in table 4
Table 6: Design parameters for simulation of the solar field for CSP plant with gross capacity
of 200 MWel.[DLS].
Parameter
Value
Unit
Type
Distance between collector row
17.3
LS-3
Height of the collector
5.76
LS-3
Length of the collector
94.6
LS-3
58
Focal length of the collector
2.12
LS-3
Reflection coefficient of the mirror
0.93
LS-3
Contamination coefficient of the mirror
0.98
LS-3
Correction coefficient of the mirror
0.90
LS-3
Transmission coefficient of the mirror
0.99
LS-3
Absorption coefficient of the mirror
0.95
LS-3
Emission coefficient of the mirror
0.16
LS-3
Heat loss coefficient of the absorber

Inlet temperature of the heat transport
medium
Outlet temperature of the heat
transport medium
Concentration ratio of the collector
W/(m *K)
298
LS-3
390.5
LS-3
82
LS-3
Solar field coefficient
0.99
LS-3
Transmission coefficient of the piping

system
0.95
LS-3
884,450
m2
Gross capacity
200 MWel
0.995
Area of the collector field (SM1)

Availability of the solar field
Table 6 presents the design parameters for the solar field, as they are used for all
further calculations in this work. The area of the collector field results from the
predefined gross capacity of 200 MWel. Furthermore, the area is adjusted during
processing according to the predefined solar multiple values. It can be recognized by
the parameters for the temperature of the heat transfer fluid that the simulation
presents a steady state operation. The transient processes like heating up during
starting time and shutting down of the plant, are considered as not relevant for further
analysis and mainly covered by the hourly resolution of the simulation.
In the next two simulation steps, the losses in the solar field are calculated, based on
the design parameters, ambient temperature, direct normal radiation and wind
speed. The part Geometrical losses is focused on the calculation of losses
depending on incidence angle, shading losses and the axial end losses following the
description in chapter 2.2
59
Figure 45: Geometrical collector losses at a location of 31N 29E at March 21, 2007 for a
one axis tracking system, collector orientation north south.
Figure 45 shows that the axial ending losses as well as shading losses having nearly
no effect during the daily operation. Shading losses only occurring in the morning
and evening hours. The losses of the incidence angle modifier can be see as
constant during the day, but these losses are always under 5%, in the areas of
interest. Therefore the only significant geometrical losses are represented by the
cosine losses.
In the next simulation process the optical efficiency of the collectors as well as the
heat losses in the solar field are simulated. In conjunction with the so called
reduction factor the output of thermal energy by the solar field can be determined.
Here, the ambient conditions temperature, wind speed, and wind direction for each
location is taken into account. The reduction factor is calculated according to [DLS;
S.13]:
" = V fw f
(4.4)
In the formula mentioned above, f (solar field coefficient) represents the losses due
to collector and piping connection, where V is the availability of the collector field.
Both parameters are set as empirical values in the design parameters [DLS; S.13].
The factor fw describes the losses occurring according to the wind speed at twometer height. It can be calculated out of an empiric model like [DLS; S.13]:
f w = 1.125 " 0.0083v w
(4.5)
vw presents the wind speed at ground height, taken from the ambient data provided
by the COSMO-EU database (see figure 32).
60
Figure 46: Efficiency and thermal energy harvest of a solar field with a size of 188,000 m and
2
a direct normal irradiation of 800 W/m at 31N 20E for March 21st, 2007 with a one axis
tracking and north-south collector orientation.
The upper graph displays the overall efficiency of the solar field compared to the
thermal energy harvested by a solar field with a direct normal irradiation of 800 W/m2
throughout the day. A constant irradiation value was assumed for this presentation in
order to highlight the effect occurring by the losses described above.
4.3.2 Thermal storage simulation

In the following simulation part the thermal energy harvest, by the solar field is
distributed between the thermal storage and the power block. This is done to follow a
predefined load profile. The used design parameters for the thermal storage
simulation are summarized in the following table:
Table 7 : Design parameter for storage simulation [DLS]
Parameter
Value
Unit
Type
Specific heat capacity
2.5
kJ/(kg*K)
Thermo oil
Specific heat capacity
1.495
kJ/(kg*K)
Molted Salt
Density
1899
kg/m3
Molted Salt
Height of the storage
For the simulation processes the temperatures in the storages, hot and cold parts are
assumed as fixed temperatures according to the operation condition of the solar field.
Consequently, only energy transfer in the heat exchanger and between the hot part
of the storage and environment is simulated. The schematic drawing 47 explains the
storage arrangement including the basic operation parameters. .
61
Figure 47: Schematic drawing of storage arrangement in the simulation program.
It can be seen that the storage can be either in loading or in unloading operation
according to the requirement of thermal energy at the power block and the energy
provided by the solar field. Thermal energy transfer into the storage is assumed
whenever the solar field provides more thermal energy then is needed at the power
block. This means more energy is harvest by the solar field than required for
electrical energy production. Consequently, the molted salt is pumped from the cold
part via the heat exchanger into the hot part. The molted salt is heated up, hence the
storage is in so-called loading operation. Another possibility is that the solar field
cannot provide a sufficient amount of thermal energy and stored energy is available.
Then the molted salt is pumped back from the hot part to the cold part, also via the
heat exchanger. Here, stored thermal energy is delivered to the power block and the
storage is in so-called unloading operation. If the complete storage capacity is used
and there is no need for thermal energy in the power block no more energy is
produced by the solar field. [PSK; S.45]. In practical operation this means that some
collector rows are tracked manually out of the sun. In the simulation program thermal
storage capacities are only available for a pre selection of solar multiple two or
higher. The general arrangement for the SM configuration is shown in the following
sketch.
62
Figure 48: Schematic drawing of SM arrangement, thermal storage unit is designed for 6
hours base load operation [MCSP].
According to this drawing, the area for the solar field is simulated depending on the
predefinition of SM by:
Asolarfield
" Adesign
$
$ 2Adesign
=#
$ 3Adesign
$% 4 Adesign
for
for
for
SM1
SM2
SM 3
(4.6)
for SM 4
After setting the thermal energy harvest by the solar field the energy transfer during
loading operation is calculated according to the energy balance equation:
"HC (m salt c p,salt #T) = mOil c p,Oil #T
(4.7)
Where the energy transfer from the storage to the power block can be simulated by:
"HC (mOil c p,Oil #T) = m sat c p,salt #T
(4.8)
Here the efficiency for the heat exchanger *HC is assumed with 0.98%. This high
efficiency is based on two different mass flows in the heat exchanger respective a
flow controlled pump in the storage arrangement. All other parameters are
predefined as input values or calculated as part of the solar field simulation.
In addition the losses occurring in the hot part of the storage are defined in the
simulation program as [VDIW; S.207]
Qlosses = " #A
dT
dx
(4.9)
It can be recognized from formula (4.9) that the heat losses in the storage are
simplified by using only the convection losses in the storage. The area A represents
the storage surface. It is calculated by assuming a cylindrical storage with a certain
63
height, set in the input parameter. The value dx is the filling level of the hot storage
part according to the process requirements and temperature difference dT.
"storage =
qnom
#powerblock
$ 6hours
&
&12hours
*%
&18hours
&' 0hours
if
if
if
if
solarmultiple2
solarmultiple3
solarmultiple4
(4.10)
solarmultiple0
According to the listing shown above it is obviously that the storage capacity is
simulated in order to supply the power block under design conditions depending on
the SM sketch with sufficient thermal energy for either 12, 18 or 24 full-load-hours a
day. The annual full load hours, can be approximately calculated according to [FCS;
S.29]:
Flh = (2.5171DNI + 694)("0.0371SM 2 + 0.4171SM " 0.0744)
(4.11)
By using the input parameters for the simulation with an annual direct irradiation of
2,038 kWh/m2 per year at a location of 31N 29E in 2007 the yearly full load hours
for SM2 would be 3,139h. However, the simulation program return only 2,482 full
load hours, which is, corresponds to a difference of -20%. This difference between
the theoretical value and the results of the program can be explained by the fact that
the program is using a more detailed calculation for the power block taking into
consideration additional ambient parameters such as wind speed and temperature.
On the other hand, the storage model is simplified compared to the stratification
models descript in chapter 2.2. However, the theoretical full load hours for SM3 are
4,325 hours and for SM4 5,132 hours. The simulation is calculating for SM3 3,788
full load hours and for SM4 5,188 hours. The difference here amounts to -12.4% and
+1.3%, respectively. Taking into account that the formula mentioned above must be
understood as an approximation the accuracy of the simulation is considered as
sufficient. The following picture shows the annual full load hours simulated for a
CSPP equipped with a wet cooling system and a back cooling system (see chapter
4.4.3) at a location of 31N and 29E in the meteorological year 2007. The results are
summarized in figure 49.
64
Figure 49: Full load operating hours /Simulation operating hours for solar-multiple 1-4
simulated for a CSP plant equipped with wet cooling system and back cooling system located
at 31N 29E metrological year 2007.
4.3.3 Power block simulation

The thermal energy delivered to the power block is the most significant input value
for the performance calculation presented in this chapter. The theoretical basis for
this simulation is the ideal Clausius-Rankine cycle. However, the efficiency in the
ideal process is around 10-15% higher than it is in the irreversible process. This
difference described in chapter 2.3 is compensated based on the assumption that in
modern steam plants installations like pre-heaters and re-heaters are used to reduce
the losses occurring by irreversible incident in a real process. This efficiency increase
is expected to be in the same range as the difference in efficiency between real and
ideal Clausius-Rankine cycle [DLS; S 35].
For the computation processes the following design parameters have to be set
manually by the operator.
Table 8: Design parameters for simulation of the power block with a gross capacity of
200MWel [DLS].
Parameter
Value
Unit
Type
Efficiency nominal
0.97
Generator
Efficiency nominal
0.71
Pumps
Efficiency nominal
0.60
Ventilation
Efficiency nominal
0.97
Steam turbine
Mass flow
40
kg/s
Steam
Nominal thermal load
500
MWth
Steam generator
Pressure
100
barg
Feed water pump
Condenser pressure
-T Boiler
See wet/evaporation/dry cooling system

19
Steam generator
65
In table 8 all values are taken from the DLR Sokrates model, only the nominal
thermal load was adjusted according to an installed gross capacity of 200 MWel. The
following drawing, gives a schematic overview of the water-steam cycle and how it is
simulated in the program.
Figure 50: Schematic drawing of water-steam cycle with basic design parameters according
to simulation program.
The cycle contains the four main parts, heat generator, steam turbine, condenser
and feed water pump. The silver marked condenser in figure 50 and its operational
performance is mainly depending on the related cooling system. The necessary
thermodynamic parameters like temperatures, pressures and enthalpies are being
simulated for the four stages shown figure 50. For processing the enthalpies out of
the water steam table the software X Steam is used. This program, developed by
Excel engineering and provided as open source offers calculation of steam and
water properties based on the "International Association for Properties of Water and
Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 (IAPWS IF-97). A full implementation of the IF-97
standard provides very accurate calculation of steam and water properties in ranges
from 0-1000 bar and 0-2000C. Available thermodynamic properties are the
temperature, pressure, enthalpy, specific volume, density, specific entropy, specific
internal energy, specific isobaric heat capacity, specific isochoric heat capacity,
speed of sound, viscosity, and vapour fraction. All properties can be calculated with
two input parameters like, pressure and temperature known, pressure and enthalpy
known, enthalpy and entropy known and some only with pressure and density
known. Therefore, X Steam can be used to calculate all necessary values in the
Clausius-Rankine cycle. Furthermore, the code is speed optimized with pressure and
enthalpy as inputs for dynamic simulations [EXS].
66
First off all enthalpy before the turbine can be evaluated out of the design parameters
by the X Steam software. For a more precise simulation different types of the
cooling systems and their influence on the thermodynamic efficiency of the power
block can be simulated. Consequently, the temperature and in some extent the
pressure in point 1 and 4 is depending on the type of cooling system, selected at the
beginning of the computation. The interaction between the different system
configurations and the water-steam part will be explained in the following chapter.
However, the condenser itself is always assumed to be a surface condenser with a
certain -T between the steam cycle and the cooling part. Furthermore, the parasitic
load also strongly depends on the selected cooling system. Only the electrical load of
the feed water pump, the tracking system, of the collectors, and the heat fluid pump
installed in the solar field are independent of the cooling system and vary only with
the load status of the power block. For the tracking system a consumption of 1 W/m2
is assumed in the simulation. The load of the solar field pump can be calculated by
[DLS; S.34]:
PPump,SF
"
%2
Q
= f Pump $ HTM '
$
'
# Q HTM ,no &
(4.12)
Here QHTM represents the actual energy flow in the heat carrier medium and Q HTMno is
the energy flow in the design point. The field factor f for the solar field is set to 8.3
W/m2 [DLS; S.16]. Finally, the electrical consumption for the feed water pump can be
estimated from [DLS; S.32]:
PFE
m steam (h2 " h1 )

=
#Pump
(4.13)
The efficiency for all aggregates during partial load operation is calculated in a first
approach [DLS, S.36]:
$ $ ' 2 $ ''
m
m )
&
"i = "i,nom & #& ) + 2& ))
&
)
&
)
& %m (
% mnom ()(
nom
%
(4.14)
In the equation above m describes the actual mass flow of the transported medium,
and m
nom the
mass flow at design point.
Further electric consumers are described separately for each cooling system.
67
WET COOLING SYSTEM

The wet cooling system is the most efficient cooling option for a power plant in
relation to the thermodynamic cycle efficiency. On the other hand the parasitic loads
can become high if a back cooling system has to be used for transportation of
cooling water over a long distance. Another disadvantage, especially in dry areas,
like in some regions of North Africa, is the high water consumption of this condenser
type. The following graph shows the design for the cooling cycle.
Figure 51: Schematic drawing of the design for a wet cooling system equipped with back
cooling system and water turbine.
Here the operational condenser pressure is preset to 0.056 bar absolute [DLS; S.90],
considering a fixed cooling water temperature as shown above. Nevertheless, for a
more precise condenser temperature calculation further design values have to be
set.
Table 9: Design parameters for water steam calculation with a wet cooling system [DLS].
Parameter
Value
Unit
Type
Terminal temperature difference
Wet cooling system
-T cooling water
10
Wet cooling system
Depending on the terminal temperature difference the temperature inside the

condenser must always be higher than the temperature at the cooling water outlet.
This can be explained by the normal operation behaviour of a heat exchanger.
Furthermore, the temperature increase of the cooling water is taken into account.
Using these relations of the design parameters the temperature inside the condenser
can be calculated according to [DLS; S.38]:
68
T4 = Tinlet + "Tcoolingwater + "Ttermitemperature
(4.15)
Based on the temperature inside the condenser and the pressure, the enthalpy at
point 4 (figure 50) using the water steam table X Steam is calculated. Now it is
possible to evaluate the necessary physical values at all other points of the water
steam cycle. The electrical output of the generator is therefore the enthalpy drop over
the steam turbine taking into account the generator and turbine efficiency.
As it can be seen in figure 51 different kinds of pumps respective water turbine for a
wet cooling system are used. Furthermore the electrical consumption depending on
the load of the power block is processed. The water turbine in the back cooling
system is used to provide a part of the electrical energy required by the back cooling
pump and reducing in this way the parasitic loads. Therefore, the driving force is the
height difference between the cooling system and the water recourse. The electrical
consumption of the cooling pumps can be evaluated by applying the energy balance
from Bernoulli [TMD; S.345]:
w 2 "p "pV ' 1

PPump = mwater & "zg +
+
+
)
2
#
# ( *Pump
%
(4.16)
Considering the water turbine in the back cooling system only the part -z*g have to
be chanced to (-z-1)*g*(1-*WT) for predicting the parasitic load of the back cooling
pump. Here *WT represents the water turbine efficiency [DLS, S.40]. Finally this
energy together with the consumption of the feed water pumps the tracking system
and the heat flow pumps represent the parasitic load in the CSPP performance
simulation with wet cooling system.
EVAPORATION COOLING
The evaporation cooling system, compared to the wet cooling system, results in a
lower thermal efficiency of the Clausius-Rankine cycle, because of the higher
pressures and temperatures occurring in the condenser. Nevertheless, the
advantage of this cooling system is the lower water consumption in relation the wet
cooling system. In addition, its efficiency is higher in comparison to a dry cooling
system. Figure 52 gives a schematic overview of the arrangement for an evaporation
cooling system.
69
Figure 52: Schematic drawing of evaporation cooling system with air-cooled cooling tower.
The operational condenser pressure for an evaporation system is assumed to be

0.087 bar absolute. Furthermore, the preset design parameters for the simulation
are:
Table 10: Design parameters for water steam calculation evaporation cooling system [DLS].
Parameter
Value
Unit
Type
Evaporation cooling
-T cooling water
11
Evaporation cooling
As it can be seen in figure XX, the ambient conditions temperature and pressure
from the COSMO-EU model are part of the calculation. According to the concept of
evaporation cooling the air in the cooling tower can catch a certain amount of water
vapour depending on their temperature and pressure where the enthalpy of the air
remains constant while the saturation temperature decreases. The enthalpy for the
inlet air can be stated as [DLS; S.43]:
hA ,1 = c p,A TA ,1 + x A,1 (r + c p,S TA,1 )
(4.17)
Here TA,1 is the ambient temperature when entering the cooling tower, c p,A is the heat
capacity of dry air, cp,S is the heat capacity depending on the water vapour, xA,1 is the
water content of the air in relation to the dry air mass, and r is the evaporation
enthalpy of water. The water content is evaluated in the simulation according to:
x A,1 =
0.622 ps,1
p
# ps,1
"A ,1
(4.18)
In the equation above p is the ambient pressure, ps is the saturation partial pressure
70
of the air when entering the cooling evaporator and / is the relative humidity of the
ambient air. The saturation partial pressure is evaluated by using a linear
interpolation in the table for wet air based on the ambient temperature T A,1. [TMD;
S.XX]. Based on the enthalpy evaluated for the inlet air the saturation temperature of
the air can be appointed. The tables of wet air, used for this assignment, are based
on the relation Ts1= f(h1) [TMD; S.241]. It is assumed that an equilibrium between the
water sprayed in the air-cooled condenser and the raising air in the cooling tower is
reached at the air outlet. Therefore, the enthalpy at the outlet of the cooling tower
can be defined as [DLS; S.44]:
hA ,2 = c p,A TA ,1 + x A,1 (r + c p,S TA1 ) + c p,w "THx
(4.19)
Cp,w is the specific heat capacity of the cooling water where -THx presents the
temperature increase in the cooling water cycle. Based on this, the temperature Ts,2
can be evaluated in the same way like Ts,1. The final temperature at point 4 (figure
XX) can now be calculated by including the design parameters from table 10 as
[DLS; S.46]:
T4 = TS,1 + (Ts,2 " Ts,1) + #THx + #Tcondenser
(4.20)
By knowing the condenser temperature and pressure all other points of interest in the
water steam cycle can be calculated and so the electric production of the plant is
evaluated.
By knowing the condenser temperature and pressure, all other points of interest in
the water steam cycle can be calculated and thereby the electric production of the
plant is evaluated.
To calculate the parasitic loads, the sketch 52 highlights the two main pumps of
interest for the cooling cycle. Furthermore, the cooling tower is assumed to be a
forced draft tower operated by a ventilator. The power consumption of the main
cooling pump is stated in equation (4.15). In the same way the electrical intake for
the make up water pump is calculated. Hence, the water mass flow is equivalent to
the evaporated water mass in the cooling tower. The parasitic load caused by the
ventilator can be estimated from [DLS, S.45]:
3
PV = mA CV
1
"V
(4.21)
The ventilator constant CV is calculated from the pressure losses in the cooling tower
and the design air mass flow. The air mass flow is directly proportional to the relative
humidity of the inlet air and the evaporation losses. Finally, the ventilator efficiency is
71
part of the design input parameters. By adding the consumption of all aggregates the
parasitic load is simulated.
DRY COOLING
The dry cooling system is the cooling system with the lowest water consumption, but
also with the lowest thermodynamic efficiency in relation to the water-steam cycle.
Normally, dry cooling systems are used in desert or semi-desert areas where the
water availability is very low and/or the costs for water are very high. The following
graph gives a schematic overview of the air-cooled condenser arrangement.
Figure 53: Schematic drawing of a condenser connected to a dry cooling system.
As shown in figure 53, the ambient air directly cools the outlet steam of the turbine.
The condenser pressure is therefore set to 0.143 bar absolute. The necessary input
parameters for the further simulation in this case are displayed in the following table.
Table 11: Design parameters for water steam calculation dry cooling system [DLS].
Parameter
Value
Unit
Type
17
Dry cooling
-T cooling air
16
Dry cooling
By using these input parameters and the ambient temperature provided by the
COSMO-EU model the temperature at point 4 (graphic 50) can be calculated as
[DLS; S.50]:
T4 = Tambient + "Tcoolingair + Ttermteperaturedif
(4.22)
Based on the temperature and the pressure in the condenser, the enthalpy at point 4
2 and 1 (figure 50) is simulated. For the dry cooling system also a forced draft
arrangement is assumed. Therefore, the additional parasitic load depends on the
ventilator in the wet cooling system. It is calculated according to the electrical
72
consumption of the ventilator in the evaporation cooling system (formula 4.19). The
difference can be seen in the air mass flow. Here, the air mass flow must be able to
add the energy difference between the cycle point 4 and point 1.
A weak point in the calculation of the cooling systems is the assumption of a fixed
condenser pressure. In real operation there is a close link between the condenser
temperature T4 and the pressure. With a temperature increase also the pressure is
increasing, this can lead to worse performance conditions. Trying to compensate this
fact, the maximum allowed condenser temperature in the program is 47C. If there
would be a higher temperature occurring it is assumed that suitable retaliatory
actions like increasing make up water supply in the evaporation system or operating
a spray water system in the wet cooling cycle are undertaken.
However after simulation of the necessary parameters at all 4 points in the ClausiusRankine cycle the enthalpy drop between point 3 and 4 (figure 50) is used for the
computation of the thermal energy provided to the steam turbine [DLS; S.32]:
Pth = m S (h3 " h4 )
(4.23)
mS represent the steam mass flow, and h3 and h4 are the enthalpies before,
respectively behind the turbine. Furthermore the efficiency of the power block can be
simulated by the equation:
"th =
Pth h3 # h4
=
QSF h3 # h2
(4.24)
The formula above stated the enthalpy drop over the steam turbine and the enthalpy
increase in the steam generator from h2 to h3 as the thermodynamic efficiency of the
water-steam cycle. The gross efficiency of the Clausius-Rankine cycle is based on
equation 4.24 is [DLS; S.38]:
"gross = "th"G"ST
(4.25)
Here *G is the efficiency of the electrical generator, which depends on the operation
condition as follow [DLS; S.37]:
$ P
'
& th # (1 # "G,nom ))
% Pth,nom
(
"G =
$ P '
& th )
% Pth,nom (
(4.26)
Finally, the net efficiency including accounting the parasitic loads is calculated by
[DLS; S.37]:
73
"Net =
Pth"G # PParasitics
QSF
(4.27)
This allows, according to the design parameters and the ambient condition, a
prediction of the electrical output produced by a CSP plant at a certain location and
time frame.
Figure 54: Plant performance calculation for SM1 equipped with dry cooling system at a
location of 31N 29E for the meteorological year 2007. Collector orientation is north south.
The simulation displayed in figure 54 was undertaken with the presettings for a dry
cooling system and solar multiple one for a plant located at 31N 29E in Egypt. The
annual electrical output of the CSPP is around 221.95 GWh/a for the meteorological
year 2007. The installed gross capacity is set to 200 MWel. For comparison, a CSPP
with dry cooling system and solar multiple four at the same location and time frame is
simulated with an annual output of 892.58 GWh/a. The influence of the cooling
system is significant. By changing the cooling system to wet cooling including a back
cooling system, the annual electrical output for the same CSPP is estimated to
241.86 GWh/a operating with solar multiple one and 971.18 GWh/y with solar
multiple four. The influence of the back cooling system with a transportation distance
of 500 m can be seen as not significant for the yearly electrical production. The
overall efficiency has an annual average of 25.79% for wet cooling where the
efficiency of the CSPP with dry cooling has only 24.18%. For a SM1 wet cooled it is
12.25% and SM1 dry cooled has 11.40%. This low efficiency depends according to
figure 54 on the high amount of partial load operation hours during the year 2007.
The CSPP cooled by evaporation cooling is settled in between the dry and wet
cooled CSP plant. Operating as solar multiple four, the annual output is 911.44
74
GWh/a as solar multiple four with an average efficiency of 17.81%. The differences in
the performance according to the cooling systems are related to the differences in
the parasitic load for each system as well as the different performance of the
condenser in the water steam cycle. The following picture shows the electrical output
of a solar multiple four CSP plant using an evaporation cooling system, at the
location of Kuraymat (31N 29E) for the meteorological year 2007.
Figure 55: Plant performance calculation for SM4 equipped with evaporation cooling system
at a location of 31N 29E for the year 2007. Collector orientation is north south.
The bigger size of the solar field in a solar multiple four arrangements allows the
plant can operate in the summer months nearly 2,500 hours in base load. Also during
the winter months the CSP can work close to its design point of 200 MWel gross
capacities. Therefore in months with a low irradiation nearly no energy is available for
storing. For all calculations the yearly average direct normal irradiation is 2,038
kWh/m2.
4.4 Curve fitting and ELCC calculation

The processed feed in the time series shown in figure 53 and 54 can be fitted to a
predefined demand. This makes calculation for supplying energy on demand
possible. Using these results the effective load carrying capacity is chronologically
evaluated. Both simulation steps explained in this chapter are predefined processes,
supplied by the Frauenhofer-institute for wind energy and energy system
technology (IWES).
4.4.1 Least square optimisation

An objective method to evaluate the feed in the time series according to the criteria
75
supply on demand is offered by the least square optimization. Here the optimum
for each simulation point can be found if the sum of the square distance between the
load and the feed in curve is minimal. [MIN; S.697] Matlab offers some predefined
algorithms dealing with the method of least square optimizations. Here the solver
lsqlin is used. Lsqlin solves linear least square curve fitting problems according to
[MWS]
$ Ax # b
&
1
2
min = Cx " d 2 such that % Aeq x = beq
x
2
&
' lb # x # ub
(4.28)
It can be seen that the algorithm accepts inequalities and equalities in linear form, as
well as upper and lower bounds. The boundary conditions lb and ub are used to
define the operational area for the CSP power plant. This can be between no
operation with 0 MWel output and an operation at maximum load. A disadvantage
here is that no lower limit for energy production is given. Theoretically the power
plant can operate with an electrical output less then 5 MW el, what is in reality
depending on technical criterias of the power block not possible [SIS; S50]. Due to
the fact that this occurs very raw in the optimization, it is seen as acceptable.
Furthermore, a simulation of more than one CSPP creates more flexibility for sharing
the electrical production, which presents another possible option to eliminate, this
problem.
The criteria for inequalities are used to define the possibility of energy shifting
depending on the storage size. The storage size is predefined according to the SM
configuration (see chapter 4.3) where the feed in the time series of the CSPP
represents the available energy at a certain time for shifting. The variable A is a
matrix used for the allocation of the variables according to the time line. However
another mismatch between the optimization and the CSPP performance calculation
can be noticed. The thermal losses for the storages are simulated depending on the
actual charge of the storage during the performance calculation; by shifting the
storage charge during the optimization process the amount of thermal losses in the
storage will be different. However, the thermal losses can be assumed to be
relatively small compared to the amount of thermal energy produced by the solar
field for a CSPP with a gross capacity of 200MWel. Therefore, the displacement of
storage capacities during charge shifting and the related inaccuracy in thermal losses
calculation are understood as acceptable for this work.
Finally the predefined load curve where the CSPP output should be fitted to is
defined by the variable d in equation (4.28). So the solver finds the minimum
76
electrical output the plant has to produce in order to reduce the demand of the
predefined load curve in an optimum way. The yearly time series are optimized for a
preset time horizon and updated for a predefined time step.
The following figure shows the curve fitting process according to a residual load
curve for a CSPP plant located at 31N 29E in Egypt.
Figure 56: Feed in series direct calculated and optimised and for CSPP SM 4 with wet cooling
and back cooling system located at 31N 29E. CSOMO-EU ambient data for 2007.
For the simulation above the time horizon was set to 72 hours and the update
frequency is 24 hours. The upper part shows the energy production according to the
performance calculation, where the second plot presents the production after the
optimisation process. In order to highlight the optimisation effect a time between
8,000 an 8,760 hours is plotted. The graphic shows how the output is fitted to the
residual load (lower plot).
A strong displacement during the wintertime can be
noticed. For the SM 4 configuration a thermal storage capacity of 22.5 GWhth is

available for load shifting. The figure above is only used for giving a graphical
example of how the curve fitting process is working.
4.4.2 ELCC calculation

Each electrical production technology can be characterized by the capacity credit
(CC), that is to say, their contribution to secured power capacity. One possible
classification for the secured power can be the additional load that can be covered by
a production unit without a change in the loss of load probability (LOLP). This amount
of energy is called effective load carrying capacity (ELCC). Furthermore the security
of supply can be defined by the loss of load expectation (LOLE). Where the LOLP
can be understood as a value of a possible load loss for each hour, the LOLE value
77
defines the statistical time of load loss for one year. As a maximum for the LOLE a
value of 2.4 hours per year are used for all further calculations. The 2.4 hours per
year are related to an expectable load loss for one day in 10 years. [UVE; S.26]
Different methods, for calculating the ELCC, are available. In this thesis the so-called
ELCC-chronologic is used. For this method the CSP energy production time series
are considered as negative load. Therefore the actual load is reduced at each hour
by an amount of energy that is supplied by the CSPP. Due to yearly fluctuations in
the solar irradiation, normally production time series for more than one year are used
in the calculation. However due to the limitation of available solar radiation data, only
time series based on the metrological year 2007 are used during this work. The next
schema shows the basic calculation concept for the ELCC-chorological method.
Figure 57: Schemata for the ELLC calculation [UVE].
According to the schemata above an input parameter containing a power plant

network (PPN) with the installed capacity and the blackout out probability for each
plant has to be designed. Furthermore the load curve must be predefined and fed to
the program. Based on these input parameters the LOLP without CSP production for
the system of interest is evaluated. Therefore the probability of each plant defined in
the PPN of supplying energy at base load condition is evaluated. The simulation
considers only the two possibilities on and off which consequently places each power
plant supply on nominal load with a probability of 1-P. P represents the blackout
possibility for the power plant. By considering only these two options the cumulative
density allocation for the complete PPN can be evaluated by the method of recursive
78
convolution. The method is summarized in the following figure for a power plant park
consisting of 3 plants with different installed capacity.
Figure 58: Method of recursive convolution, example for 3 power plants [DENA1]
The flow chart shows that the probability density function for two plants can be
evaluated out of the convolution of the density function for power plant one 1 (f) and
power plant 2 (g). In mathematical expression it will be:
h= f "g
(4.29)
Based on the commutative law for the convolution an additional plant (x) can be
added to the function by:
x " f "g = h " x
(4.30)
Using this calculation method the probability function for the complete PPN can be
calculated [UVE; S.22]. Finally out of the cumulative density allocation the LOLP for
each hour in relation to the predefined load curve is evaluated.
The gray part in sketch 57 starts now with an iterative scaling until the LOLE reaches
the predefined value of 2.4 hours per year. The relation between the LOLP and the
LOLE can be stated therefore as [UVE; S.26]:
T
LOLE = " LOLP(Lt)

t =1
(4.31)
The load profile is multiplied with these load factors and the CSP production time
series is subtracted from the new load profile. At the end the LOLP is calculated out
of the relation between the new load profile and the cumulative density allocation of
the PPN. In the blue part, now the load curve is scaled down until the original LOLE
of 2.4 hours per year is reached. The new factor is multiplied with the load curve and
subtracted from the original input curve. The difference between these two curves
79
can be seen as the ELCC. Dividing the ELCC value by the installed capacity of CSP
plants results in the capacity credit (CC).
80
5. Export scenario 2050

5.1 Scenario description
The following calculations are based on input parameters from the study 100%
renewable
electricity
supply
by
2050
published
by
the
German
federal
environmental agency (UBA) and the MED-CSP study supplied by the DLR. The aim
is to evaluate the capacity credit, respectively the firm capacity, for the energy
exported by CSP plants to Germany in 2050.
5.1.1 Installed capacity and plant distribution

The installed capacity of CSP plants in North Africa for the year 2050 is taken from
the MED-CSP study (see chapter 3.2). It is assumed that the installed CSP plants
are exclusive producing electricity for exporting it to Europe. To estimate the share of
installed CSP capacity exclusively for Germany, the share of the country's electricity
consumption in Europe is evaluated# Germany had in 2008 a share of 19.1% of the
primary energy consumption of the EU-25 [SBA; S.73]. Consequently, a share of
CSP plants in the same height is considered to be reserved for Germany for the
following theoretical study. Each plant is simulated with an installed gross capacity of
200 MWel. The resulting number of plants and its distribution can be seen in the
following map.
Figure 59: Distribution of exporting CSP plants for Germany, with installed gross capacity of
200 MWel for each plant, in North Africa for 2050.
The blue dots display the location for each plant. The ambient conditions and the
irradiation data corresponding to the geo-coordinates of the CSSPs and taken from
the COSMO-EU database. Having a closer look to the plant configuration, Morocco
has 17 CSP plants installed for exporting of solar energy out of which 5 plants are
equipped with a wet cooling system, 6 plants operating with evaporation cooling and
81
another 6 plants with dry cooling system. This leads to an installed cross capacity of
3.4 GWel. In Algeria 19 CSP plants are located, 3 of them with wet cooling system, 6
with evaporation cooling and 10 are equipped with a dry cooling system resulting in a
total installed gross capacity of 3.8GWel. In Tunisia 5 CSP plants simulated with wet
cooling system are installed, the overall gross capacity here is 1 GW el. Libya is
hosting 1 evaporation-cooled plant and 2 dry cooled plants. Here the gross export
capacity is 0.6 GWel. Finally, 24 wet cooled, 15 evaporation cooled and 5 dry cooled
CSP plants are installed in Egypt, which equals an installed gross capacity of 8.8
GWel by a total of 44 CSP plants. The following table is summarizing these results.
Table 12: Installed exporting CSP plants and gross capacity, separated by countries for
Germany in 2050.
Country
Number of CSP plants
Installed gross capacity

[GW]
Morocco
17
3.4
Algeria
19
3.8
Tunisia
Libya
0.6
Egypt
44
8.8
Sum
88
17.6
5.1.2 Residual load curve

The residual load curve is taken from the study 100% renewable electricity supply
by 2050 (UBA2050). This study described a scenario where the energy demand in
Germany is supplied to 100% by renewable energies in the year 2050
The residual load curve has a significant influence on the further calculations and will
be described more closely. This residual load curve is the result of the SIM-EE model
developed by the Fraunhofer IWES. The following illustration presents the program
parts of the SIM-EE model leading to the residual load curve used in this work.
82
Figure 60: SIM-EE model IWES for simulation of the residual load curve [UBA2050].
It can be seen that the residual load is a product, out of the basic load, the feed in of
renewable energy must run units and additional consumers for E-mobility heating
and climatization. The basic load curve includes all consumers participating
nowadays in the grid. Furthermore, the transmission losses are part of this load
curve. In sum the basic load for one year is 401 TWh. Due to the renewable energy
law in Germany the production units always feeding into the grid when energy is
produced. Therefore, they are simulated as must run units. For PV an installed
capacity of 120 GW for the year 2050 is assumed. 80% of the PV systems are
located on the roofs of residential buildings and the rest is installed on suitable fronts.
The efficiency for the modules is calculated with 17% and the availability is 98%. The
distribution is undertaken in relation to the distribution of settlement areas in
Germany. The calculation is outlined by the meteorological data sets from the
COSMO-EU model for the ambient temperature and the irradiation data from the
HelioClim3 database. The wind energy production is divided into wind energy harvest
onshore and offshore. For this simulation part, an installed capacity of 60 GW el
onshore is assumed. The metrological data sets are also form the COSMO-EU
model whit a spatial resolution of 14 x 14 km!. The distribution for the wind turbines is
done between all available areas for an average wind speed of more the 5 m/s. The
availability is assumed with 98.5%. The feed in time series are also simulated in
hourly resolution. The offshore wind potential is set with 45 GW el in the year 2050.
The availability is 97% and energy losses of 5% for the energy transmission to land
is assume. In all other point the model follows the simulation for on-shore windmills.
83
Hydropower is simulated in hourly resolution taking into account 5.2 GW el installed

capacity. Finally, for the geothermal plants an installed net capacity of 6.4 GW el is
assumed in 2050. The availability is assumed to be in the same range like coal-fired
plants with 90%. All the production units above are simulated as must-run-units. This
means whenever energy is produced it will be fed into the electrical grid system and
therefore must be subtracted at any time from the basic load profile [UBA2050].
For smoothing the load curve E-mobility, electric heat pumps and climate control is
integrated via a load management. The potential of heat pumps supported by
thermal energy is related to a heating demand of 100.5 TWh/year in residential
buildings where in commercial and industrial buildings a consumption of 40.2
TWh/year is assumed. Due to thermal storage integration it is possible to uncouple
heat demand from electricity demand allowing shifting the heat pump operation to
times where electric overproduction is noticed. Consequently, a reduction of
electrical energy demand for heating in times with low renewable energy availability
takes place. Based on this concept, the residual load curve can be smoothed. The
basis for the E-mobility simulation is a statistic evaluation of the driving habits in
Germany. Furthermore it is assumed that all cars not in use are connected to the
grid. This leads to an additional storage capacity of 180 GWh for the demand side
management. The climatization is only simulated for commercial and industrial
buildings. An additional annual requirement of 10 TWh for the year 2050 is assumed.
Storages also offering the possibility to shift these loads by approximately three
hours.
Figure 61 shows the residual load curve for the year 2050 based on the metrological
data sets form the year 2007. A positive residual load means that energy has to be
added to the system either from stored energy, by backup power plants or the
requirements have to be satisfied by importing renewable energy from abroad. The
negative part represents the overproduction of renewable electrical energy calculated
by the UBA2050.
84
Figure 61: Annual load duration curve for Germany in 2050 with an energy supply by 100%
renewable energy sources [UBA2050].
The highest leak of energy in this scenario is 53.9 GWel. On the other hand an
overproduction with a maximum of 63.7 GW el can be noticed. The annual deficit of
63.04 TWh is compared to an overproduction of 113.80 TWh. Figure 62 shows the
residual load in hourly resolution for the year 2050 based on the weather data from
2007.
Figure 62: Residual load curve from the UBA study 100% renewable electricity supply by
2050 [UBA2050].
The positive part of the load curve in the figure above is the input for the storage
optimization and also for the calculation of the firm capacity.
5.1.2 Power plant network

For the calculation of the firm capacity it is necessary that a power plant network
(PPN) be designed. In this scenario simulation the PPN is set up according to the
85
long-term storage option and the amount of required backup power plants in the
UBA2050 study. The study assumes that the positive residual load is covered by a
PPN consisting of 2.5 GWel net installed capacity of gas turbines operating with
biomethane, 30.4 GWel net capacity of gas and steam turbine plants using hydrogen
as fuel and 17.5 GWel net capacity backup gas turbines also operating with
biomethane. This can be shown in relation to the SIM-EE model as follow.
Figure 63: SIM-EE model from Fraunhofer IWES for simulation of the residual load curve.
Changes are undertaken in the position of importing energy according to the simulation in this
thesis [UBA2050].
It can be seen that using excess renewable electricity produces hydrogen for
operating combined cycle power plants. The amount of imported energy for the year
2050 based on the weather data from 2007 is assumed with 19.7 TWh. This value is
related to a maximum import capacity of 6.9 GWel. However, in the UBA2050 study
the imported energy is not considered as secured energy. Therefore, an additional
net capacity of 14.7 GWel provided by gas turbines is assumed as backup capacity in
order to guarantee the actual security of supply of 99%.
Furthermore, the specific non-availability for each power plant must be defined for
simulation of the ELCC. The necessary data therefore are provided by the DENAGrid study [DENA1] and summarized for the assumed types of power plants in table
13.
Table 13: Unplanned outage probability [DENA1]
Type of power plant
Unplanned outage probability
Gas and steam turbine plant
1.8%
Gas turbine plant
3.0%
86
The unplanned outage probability does not include the normal (projectable) outage
times. It is assumed that the disposable outages can be shifted to times with low
energy demand mainly during summer. Based on this assumption the unplanned
outage probability is sufficient for the further calculation.
The PPN designed for the scenario simulation is summarized in the following table
Table 14: PPP for ELCC simulation
Type of plants
Number of
plants
Average net
capacity per
plant
Installed net
capacity
Unplanned
outage
probability
Gas and steam

turbine plants
132
231
30,492
1.8%
Gas turbine
plants
239
145
34,665
3.0%
Sum
371
65,157
Based on the input parameters described above, the maximum amount and the
ELCC of imported energy from CSP plants in North Africa are calculated.
5.2 Simulation results

The simulation is done according to the predefined definitions in chapter 5.1 for
configuration SM1 to SM4. The design parameters for the collector field are adjusted
for a LS-3 collector type with an irradiation of 800 W/m 2 at the design point. The
collector orientation is always north south in order to harvest the maximum amount of
energy. For irradiation data and data about the ambient condition the information
from the COSMO-EU database 2007 are used. The curve fitting is done with a
forecast horizon of 72 hours and an update frequency of 24 hours. For the energy
transmission between North Africa and Germany no losses are assumed.
5.2.1 Simulation for SM1

The SM1 configuration is simulated without storage. Therefore, no energy shifting
according to the demand of the residual load curve is possible. In sum all CSP plants
producing an amount of energy from 15.3 TWh in the year 2050. The following figure
shows the weekly average energy production for all 88 CSP plants in North Africa.
87
Figure 64: Weekly average energy production CSP plants SM1 based on the weather data
COSMO-EU 2007.
Figure 64 show that the energy production follows directly the solar irradiation for an
SM1 configuration. Due to that fact a very low capacity credit of 0.38% according to
the demand of the residual load curve is calculated. This value is corresponds to an
ELCC of 67 MWel with a LOLE of < 2.4 hours per year.

For the 88 CSP plants in SM2 configuration an electric output of 30.5 TWh based on
the weather data from 2007 is simulated. For the displacement of the energy a
storage capacity in SM2 configuration of 7.5 GWhth is calculated. For further
calculation the feed in time series after the optimization is used. The next figure
presents the result of the optimization in hourly resolution. Here also the high-energy
demand during the winter months can be noticed.
88
Figure 65: Residual load curve without import energy and residual load curve including import
energy form CSP with SM2. Irradiation and ambient data from COSMO-EU model 2007.
The yellow area above displays the amount of energy produced by all CSP plants
following the optimization according to the residual load curve. The green part
presents the residual load curve after it is smoothed by the imported solar energy
and the blue part shows the original residual load curve. For getting a better overview
of the curve a part of 2,000 hours in spring and summer is sliced out of the figure
above. Therefore, the next graph plots the same arrangement as above for the
period between hour 2,800 and hour 4,800.
Figure 66: Partial view of figure 65 residual load curve without imported energy and residual
load curve including imported energy from CSP with SM2. Irradiation and ambient data from
COSMO-EU model for 2007.
In sum, only an amount of 23.6 TWh out of the production are useable for the
reduction of the positive residual load. This leads to an amount of 6.9 TWh per year
89
remaining either for consumption in North Africa or to be used for hydrogen

generation by electrolyzers. Figure 67 shows the resulting annual load duration
curve.
Figure 67: Annual load duration curve for the residual load with and whiteout CSP import
SM2.
The figure shows that importing solar energy from CSP pants in SM2 configuration
reduces the peak load from 63.7 GWel to 49.5 GWel and in sum the yearly deficit of
energy is reduced from 63.0 TWh to 39.4 TWh. In case that all the produced energy
is transmitted to Germany the overproduction is increased to 120.7 TWh with a peak
of 64.1 GWel for 2050. For making a more qualified statement about the imported
solar energy the effective load carry capacity is calculated with 4.49 GWel. This leads
to a capacity credit of 25.5% for the CSP plants with SM2 configuration.

The simulation was repeated with a storage arrangement for the CSP plants of SM3.
This means a storage capacity of 15 GWhth is available for each plant. An energy
production of 47.1 TWh for the year 2050 is simulated. Due to the limitation
according to the maximum production capacity for each plant with 200 MW el the load
shifting during summer time is less distinctive than it is for the SM2 configuration.
The changes mainly take place during the winter months. Due to the higher storage
capacity also the amount of energy produced by the CSP plants is increased
compared to solar multiple 2. The energy used for smoothing the demand presented
by the residual load is calculated with 28.3 TWh for the year 2050. This reduces the
deficit of energy to 34.7 TWh. The next picture displays the original and the
90
smoothed residual load curve for Germany as well as the energy produced by the
CSP plants in the year 2050.
Figure 68: Residual load curve without imported energy and residual load curve including
imported energy from CSP with SM3. Irradiation and ambient data from COSMO-EU model
2007.
Figure 68 displays the energy production of the CSP plants after optimization in
yellow. The blue part presents the original residual load and the green part shows the
residual load after smoothing by solar imports from CSP plants. For a more detailed
view overview the following picture presents a time line of around 2,000 hours sliced
from the figure above.
Figure 69. Partial view part of figure 68 residual load curve without import energy and residual
load curve including import energy form CSP SM3 as well as energy production CSP.
Irradiation and ambient data from COSMO-EU model for 2007.
91
The peaks during summer months are more reduced in SM3 configuration than for
SM2. Also the high demand in winter could be reduced more. An additional amount
of 18.8 TWh (yellow part in the negative residual load) could either remain in the
North African countries or be used for hydrogen generation in Germany. The
following figure shows the energy distribution in the annual load duration curve
including the imported solar energy from North Africa in 2050.
Figure 70: Annual load duration curve for the residual load with and whiteout CSP import
SM3.
According to figure 70 the maximum value of the positive residual load is reduced to
46.6 GWel. If the negative part of the residual load curve contains the additional
energy produced by the CSP plants an overproduction of 132.3 TWh with a peak of
68.1 GWel is calculated. Finally, the ELCC for SM3 configuration amounts to 7.64
GWel corresponding to a capacity credit of 43.5% of the installed capacity.

Finally, the simulation is repeated with SM4 configuration. This allows an
optimization with a maximum storage capacity of 22.5 GWh th. Using the feed in time
series according to the optimization configurations a maximum amount of 64.1 TWh
for exporting is produced by all CSP plants in the year 2050. Out of these 64.1 TWh
only 31.8 TWh are used for lowering the positive part of the residual load curve.
Figure XX shows the original and smoothed residual load curve as well as the energy
for Germany provided by CSP in North Africa.
92
Figure 71. Residual load curve without imported energy and residual load curve including
imported energy form CSP SM4. Irradiation and ambient data from CSOMO-EU model 2007.
A partial view for 2,000 hours is displayed for more details. The following picture
therefore shows the maximum possible reduction during summer time, based on the
meteorological data of 2007.
Figure 72. Partial view part of figure 71 residual load curve without imported energy and
residual load curve including imported energy from CSP with SM4. Irradiation and ambient
data from COSMO-EU model for 2007.
The maximum reduction of the deficit energy for the year 2050 can be noticed. The
total amount of electricity deficits is 31.3 TWh. The next figure displays the annual
load duration curve for Germany with and without the imported energy form CSP with
SM4 configuration.
93
Figure 73: Annual load duration curve for residual load with and without CSP import. Ambient
data COSMO-EU 2007.
According to the simulation an amount of 32.3 TWh can either remain in the
countries of North Africa or be exported for the purpose of hydrogen generation. The
peak demand in the residual load curve including the CSP imports is 44 GWel. The
overproduction including the imported energy from CSP in North Africa amounts to
145 TWh with a peak of 70 GWel. The ELCC for SM4 configuration is calculated with
10.13 GWel and a capacity credit of 57.5%.
94
6. Conclusion
6.1 Simulation Program

The aim of the thesis was to develop a simulation program that can evaluate the
electrical output of CSP plants in North Africa. Such programs are already available
for example Grennius or SAM. The advantage in this program can be clearly seen
in the program part GIS database and scenario processing. This program part
described in chapter 4.2 gives the possibility not only to fit the plant position to
several land use criteria but also to the actual existing infrastructure for energy
distribution. The simulation offers here already a basic approach for the plant siting in
North Africa, mainly based on data out of the MED-CSP study. Nevertheless, this
part can be made more precise by using informations from country reports for the
MENA countries published for example by RECREE. Furthermore, informations
about developing plans for a direct current high voltage grid as interconnection
between Europe and North Africa could be collected and implemented to the
program. Here the TRANS-CSP study published by the DLR could be a good starting
point. Another possibility can be the implementation of more countries in the MENA
region, therefore also the DLR publishes a lot of useful informations. Adding these
data sets to the existing program can be done easily, due to the modular program
structure and straightforward programming language offered by Matlab. A second
advantage of the program is the ambient database in the background. The
performance of a CSP plant can be simulated for every region in North Africa
(resolution of 7 x 7 km!) taking into consideration the limits of the COSMO-EU model.
By adding not only the irradiation data but also ambient temperature, ambient
pressure wind speed near ground height and wind direction the results of the
performance simulation getting more precise. Due to time reasons the relative
humidity was not implemented in the CSP performance calculation. Considering the
significant influence this parameter can have especially for an evaporation cooling
systems, an adaption of this parameter should be undertaken during further work.
Furthermore, a comparison of the irradiation data of the COSMO-EU model and the
HelioClim 3 data from Soda would be advisable. The HC3 data sets using an
interpolation of the irradiation data for a zenith angle of lower than 15 compared to
the COSMO-EU model, which provides straightforward modeled values. By
calculating the DNI a difference in the two data sets was noticed. Finally the program
part scenario analysis can be understood as the link between two different studies,
95
the MED-CSP and the UBA2050 outlining this work. The amount of plants is
calculated according to the scenario planning in the CG/HE of the MED-CSP while
the final results of the export scenario are calculated by including outcomes of the
UBA2050. The CG/HE scenario is the most ambitious scenario of the MED-CSP
study regarding the installed capacity of CSP plants in North Africa. The intention
was to show what could be possible, if the right incentives on both sides of the
Mediterranean Sea will be set. In this context, also the UBA2050 can also be seen as
an ambitious scenario for Germany until 2050. For the performance calculation the
most reliable cooling system for each plant at a certain location depending on the
water availability gets chosen. In this thesis, the availability of water is related only to
the coast and the Nile River. Plants along the coastline or the Nile are equipped with
a wet cooling system, close to this they are using evaporation cooling and where a
lower water availability is assumed the plants operating with dry cooling system.
Additional informations of the hydrology out of the DLR Solar import study can be
used to make these selection criteria and its influents on the performance calculation
more precise.
The core of the program is definitely the performance calculation of a CSP plant. As
described above, the program can calculate the performance in relation to the
cooling systems and SM adjustment. However, the aim of the simulation is not to
design a CSP plant. The electrical output of the plant in relation to several input
parameters should be calculated based on physical criteria and giving an accurate
value of the electrical output depending on the incoming irradiation. Therefore, a
database containing design data of an LS-3 collector type together with the
necessary basic parameters for the storages, the power block and the cooling
systems where created and used. The simulation displays only steady-state
operation conditions. In this work it is assumed that the transient processes are
mainly covered by the hourly resolution of the results. The DLR SOKRATES model
does similar assumptions for the same temporal resolution. If a higher time resolution
like 15 min time series are realized, the influence of transient processes on the
results have to be taken into account, especially for the solar field simulation. To
obtain more precise values, the simulation is working with real ambient data during
the performance calculation. The most significant influence of the ambient date not
considering the irradiation could be noticed by the performance calculation of the
conventional part. This is related to the condenser performance in relation to the
ambient conditions. By mischance it was not possible to get any usable condenser
performance curves for related power plants. Due to the complexity of calculating
these curves it was impossible to indicate the condenser pressure in relation to the
96
ambient conditions. That limits the influence of the ambient data by the performance
calculation. However, accepted values where set for the condenser pressure and the
ambient data are considered for the temperature calculation. In this way the influence
of the ambient data is given to a certain extend for evaluating the condenser
parameters. As an outlook, it would be possible to implement these curves for getting
more precise results of the condenser behavior. The storage arrangement is
simulated for different solar multiple operation. Here also more advanced modeling
techniques as described in chapter 2 could be used in further work. However, the
performance simulation offers the opportunity to simulate for different arrangements,
feed in time series in hourly resolution at a high accuracy.
Finally, the two predefined program parts load optimization and effective load
carrying capacity calculations where adapted to the simulation program. Some
mismatching point between the written program in this thesis and the predefined
steps during the export scenario simulation where noticed. Where most of them
could be solved still a mismatching by the optimization process at the end of the feed
in time series is noticed. Furthermore, an inaccuracy during the optimization in the
negative part of the residual load curve can be seen. Solving this problem must be
undertaken in a further work. However, the accuracy of the results from optimization
simulation are considered as high enough for the ELCC_C calculation. Including
these two simulation parts provided by the IWES the export scenario for 2050 is
calculated.
6.2 Export Scenario

The export scenario can be seen as a combination of results out of the MED-CSP
and the UBA2050 study. Therefore, the amount of energy produced by a number of
CSP plants according to the MED-CSP in North Africa, is put into relation to the
residual load of Germany calculated in the UBA2050. The simulation is undertaken
using weather data from 2007 for the year 2050. The focus of interest is on the
effective load carrying capacity and capacity credit for the CSP plants providing solar
energy to Germany. For the further discussion, the results from chapter 5 are
summarized in table XX.
97
!
Table 16: Summery of results from export scenario analyze
ELCC
[GWel]
Capacity
credit
Sum export
energy
[TWh/a]
Export energy
positive
[TWh/a]
Gross installed
capacity [GWel]
SM1
0.067
0.38%
15.3
SM2
4.49
25.48%
30.5
23.6
17.6
SM3
7.64
43.46%
47.1
28.3
17.6
SM4
10.13
57.5%
64.1
31.8
17.6
17.6
Due to the fact that these values are simulated, it is necessary to take a closer look
at the used input parameters. First of all, the ELCC_C calculation normally requires
input parameter for at least for four to five years. This is needed to minimize effects
related to extreme weather conditions occurring infrequently [UVE; S.31]. In this
thesis however, only the feed time series for 2007 where simulated, due to the
unavailability of irradiation data sets for more years. Consequently, only the residual
load for 2007 is used for further processing. Finally, for the installed capacity only
one very optimistic scenario out of the MED-CSP study was studied. The comparison
between different scenarios would be desirable. This effect gets even more boosted
by the assumption that all CSP plants strictly used for exporting energy to Germany.
Due to already existing shortages in most of the countries, this assumption has to be
removed in a future work and a more precise evaluation of the local demand in the
producing countries and the available energy for export have to be conducted.
However, to compensate this effect at least the amount of energy produced during
overproduction times in Germany could be seen as available energy for the
production countries. Finally, the storage losses simulated in the program part
performance calculation can be displaced during the dynamic optimization
processes. Because of the program structure, no recalculations for the thermal
losses taking place during the optimization process. This can lead to a different
amount of losses depending on the storage time. However, related to the quantity of
thermal energy produced in a CSP plant with a gross installed capacity of 200 MWel
the different in the losses can be assumed as not significant for the ELCC and CC
calculation. Furthermore, only a power plant scheduling can be used for calculating a
coast-optimized operation of the CSPP, to do so will also be part of a future work.
Knowing the accuracies of the input parameter the results of table XX will be
discussed. First off all it can be noticed that for an SM1 configuration the capacity
98
credit is in the same range as the capacity credit for PV systems [UVE; S.31]. Also
the ELCC with 0.067 GWel is very low and will not help to reduce backup capacities
in Germany by using solar imports. It can be stated, that using a CSP plants without
thermal storage in this way, it is only more expensive than PV systems. Looking at
the results of CSP plants including storage capacities ones again the importance of
storage arrangement in relation with CSP technologies can be highlighted. All results
for the CC are in the range of CCs for parabolic through plans described in the MEDCSP study. Only plants using additional fossil fuel achieve higher CC values.
However, the idea of the thesis is a 100% renewable scenario. The input data for the
power plant park and the ELCC calculation are related to the hydrogen scenario of
the UBA2050. For this approach, an energy import to Germany of 19.7 TWh in 2050
was calculated. This evaluation is also done with weather data from 2007 [UBA;
S.91]. At a first look all three CSP configurations with storages are able to fulfill this
criteria. However, an import capacity of 6.9 GWel is also required for all the times
when energy is needed according to the residual load curve. Only the configuration
SM3 and SM4 are providing an ELCC high enough to perform this requirement.
Consequently the imported energy based on the criteria mentioned above can be
considered as guaranteed for by using SM3 or SM4 configuration. As a result the
addition backup capitates installed by the postulation that the import energy can be
not considered as guaranteed in the UBA2050 can be removed. However, it can be
noticed, that the energy production by CSP plants even with storages is depending
on the seasonality of the irradiation. Consequently, the possible contribution of CSP
plants reducing the residual load during winter times, with the highest demand is very
small. Therefore, the use of long-term storage options like hydrogen storages cannot
be reduced significantly by importing energy from CSP plants. In the summer time
however, the CSP plants equipped with SM2 or higher can nearly deliver energy on
demand, witch can be noticed observing the reduction of the demand during summer
times. During this times the advantages of CSPP with storage compare to PV
systems can be noticed. As an outlook simulations with different design points for the
CSPP should be undertaken for getting more comparable results.
During the thesis a program was developed which can evaluate the amount of
energy produced by CSP plants in North Africa on a secure level. Further
investigation
in
the
program
structure
and
calculating
configurations would be helpful for getting more precise results.
different
scenario
99
To the best of my knowledge I do hereby declare that this thesis is my own work. It
has not been submitted in any form of another degree or diploma to any other
university or other institution of education. Information derived from the published or
unpublished work of others has been acknowledged in the text and a list of
references is given.
-------------------------------Daniel Horst
Kassel, 05.03.2012,
100
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[TDK]: von Wolfersdorf, J / Weigand, B / Khler, J (2010): Thermodynamik kompakt.
2nd, Dordrecht,Heidelberg, London, New York: Springer.
[REG]: Wesselak, V / Schabbach, T (2009): Regenerative Energietechnik. Dordrecht,
Heidelberg, London, New York: Springer.
103
Appendix A (Validation Table CSP performance

calculation)
The simulation of the CSP performance is validated by the results of the DLR
SOKRATS MODEL. In the following tables the simulation results for Matlab and
SOKRATS program will be shown. The validation is done for the solar field and for
the three different modifications of the power block. The grey marked parts are
preset input parameters for the validation. All design parameters were set according
to the description of the DLR SOKRATES model. For closer information see model
description of DLR SOKRATES.
Validation table solar field.
Matlab
Simulation
DNI [W/m2]
DLR
SOKRATES
800
800
490
490
Thermal energy solar field [MW]
49.02
49.06
Efficiency solar field [%]
0.32
0.33
IDR [W/m ]
Validation table power block with wet cooling system
Heat from solar field [MW]
Matlab
Simulation
91.63
DLR
SOKRATES
91.63
Steam turbine power [MW]
36.81
36.74
Gross energy output [MW|
35.53
35.46
Net energy output CSP [MW]
32.68
32.64
Consumption feed water pump [MW]
0.48
0.45
Consumption back up pump
0.05
0.03
Consumption cooling water pump
0.57
0.50
Consumption solar field [MW|
1.75
1.75
Parasitic sum [MW]
2.85
2.75
Efficiency generator
0.97
0.97
Efficiency all pumps
0.71
0.71
Efficiency water turbine
0.80
0.80
Thermal efficiency
0.406
0.401
Gross efficiency
0.391
0.389
Net efficiency
0.362
0.359
104
Validation table power block with evaporation cooling system.
Matlab
Simulation
91.63
DLR
SOKRATES
91.63
36.10
35.72
34.78
34.65
31.12
31.21
Consumption ventilator [MW]
0.52
0.47
0.49
0.46
Consumption make up water pump
0.02
Consumption cooling water pump
0.88
0.74
1.75
1.75
Parasitic sum [MW]
3.66
3.44
0.97
0.97
Efficiency all pumps
0.71
0.71
Efficiency ventilator
0.60
0.60
Thermal efficiency
0.395
0.390
Gross efficiency
0.381
0.378
Net efficiency
0.339
0.341
Validation table for power block with dry cooling system.
Matlab
Simulation
91.63
DLR
SOKRATES
91.63
34.87
34.50
33.89
33.46
30.07
29.87
Consumption ventilator [MW]
1.52
1.36
0.55
0.47
1.75
1.75
Parasitic sum [MW]
3.82
3.60
0.97
0.97
Efficiency feed water pump
0.71
0.71
Efficiency ventilator
0.60
0.60
Thermal efficiency
0.381
0.376
Gross efficiency
0.368
0.365
Net efficiency
0.334
0.326
105
Appendix B (Transmission grid maps North

Africa)
The following transmission grid maps are used in the simulation program (Chapter
4.2)
Transmission grid Egypt [GENI]
Transmission grid Libya [GENI]
106
Transmission grid Tunisia [GENI]
Transmission grid Morocco [GENI]
For the transmission grid in Algeria no reasonable map was found. Therefore, the
information of the transmission grid in Algeria is shaped out of figure 23.

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Performance Simulation For

Parabolic Trough Concentrating

FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, CAIRO UNIVERSITY

Performance Simulation For

Dr. Carsten Pape

Faculty of Engineering Faculty of Engineering

FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, CAIRO UNIVERSITY

Performance Simulation For

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jrgen Schmid

Dr. Hany Nokrashy

FACULTY OF ENGINEERING, CAIRO UNIVERSITY

2. Theoretical performance calculation CSPP ..........................................................8

3. Recourse assessment for CSPP .........................................................................29

3.2 MED-CSP Scenario CG/HE ....................................................................................................................... 37

4. Simulation Program ..........................................................................................47

5. Export scenario 2050 ........................................................................................80

Figure 52: Schematic drawing of evaporation cooling system with air-cooling

Concentration ratio (chapter 2) / ventilator constant (chapter 4)

specific heat capacity

distance collector row

area angle (chapter 2.2) / control function (chapter2.3)

focal length (chapter 2.) / solar field coefficient (chapter 4)

irradiation at absorber pipe (chapeter2.2) / Gibbs free energy (chapter2.3)

specific enthalpy / probability density function (chapter 4.4)

global horizontal irradiation

global horizontal beam radiation

global horizontal diffuse radiation

length of the collector

length of the not irradiated absorber part

number of the day

power / black out probability (chapter 4.4)

specific thermal energy

heat transfer coefficient (chapter2.2) / internal energy (chapter 2.3)

volume (chapter 2) / availability collector field (chapter 4)

specific volume (chapter 2) /wind speed at ground height (chapter 4)

specific work (chapter 2)/ speed (chapter 4)

distance (chapter 2) /water contend (chapter 4.3)

distance for water transportation

surface azimuth relative

solar field reduction factor

short wave radiation at ground high

concentrated solar power

concentrated solar power plant

German aerospace center

direct normal irradiation

digital soil map of the world

effective load carrying capacity

gross domestic product

green house gasses

global information system

global land cover characterization

gross national income

Incidence direct radiation

international energy agency

Frauenhofer-institute for wind energy and energy system technology

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

loss of load probability

loss of load probability

Middle East and North Africa

normalized difference vegetation index

purchasing power parity

power plant network

solar energy generation system

German Federal Environmental Agency