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ABSTRACT
The Bayesian probability, is widely misunderstood by the general public, as well as some economists. On the other
hand, bankruptcy risk can be estimated in the static and dynamic analysis of the financial balance that outlines the
former performance of the enterprise. A global evaluation of the enterprises future becomes interesting for the
management of the enterprise and especially for its business partners: banks, clients, capital investors. Therefore, in this
paper we mould the Anghel Prediction Model for bankruptcy risk using the Bayesian probability. To this purpose, we
use Bayesian Networks (BN) and the AgenaRisk Tool. The result of this mould is a solution of bankruptcy risk
prediction using BN.
Keywords: Bayesian probability, Bayesian Network (BN), bankruptcy risk prediction, AgenaRisk Tool, Anghel
Prediction Model
1.
INTRODUCTION
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158
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160
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CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
[1] JENSEN FINN V, GRAVEN-NIELSEN THOMAS Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs, Springer 2002
[2] POURRET OLIVIER, NAIMS PATRICK,
MARCOT BRUCE Bayesian Networks - A Practical
Guide to Applications, John Wily & Sons Ltd, 2008
[3] ANGHEL ION Falimentul radiografie i
predicie, Ed. Economic, Bucureti, 2002
[4] NEAPOLITAN RICHARD E. Learning Bayesian
Networks, Prentice Hall Series in Artificial Intelligence
[5] HECKERMANN DAVID A Tutorial on Learning
with Bayesian Network, March 1995
[6] Agena 2007, Press Release,
http://www.agenarisk.com/agenarisk/case_13.shtml
[7] SUN LILI, SHENOY PRAKASH P. Using
Bayesian Networks for Bankruptcy Prediction Some
Methodological Issues, European Journal of Operational
Research, 2007
162
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