Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December 2014
OUTLOOK:
15%
10%
5%
0%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
15%
10%
5%
0%
1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
18%
1910
1840
0%
1900
1820
50
2000
45
40
35
1929
30
1901
25
1966
25.78
!
20
15
10
5
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
$180
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
1800
$160
3300000
1600
$140
3000000
1400
$120
2700000
1200
$100
2400000
1000
$80
2100000
800
$60
1800000
600
$40
1500000
400
$20
1200000
200
$0
3600000
900000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Capital IQ
We also believe that inflation is not subdued. The
calculation method has merely been changed so that
it now only measures a constantly declining quality
of life given substitution effects and stripping out
the costs of food and energy. One of the most less
obvious techniques to hide inflation is what we call
shrinkflation = where companies reduce the
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
CPI-U
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1996
ShadowStats
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
10
18
20.2
11.2
6.8
11.9
11.4
5.2
-3.5
0.5
10.8
3.4 1.9
7.0
2.8 2.9
4.5
8.0
5.2
-4.6
1.8
-12.0
-10
-20
-30
-23.2
-2.6
Low 5%
Next 15%
Next 15%
Next 15%
Next 15%
Next 15%
Next 15%
Top 5%
ENDNOTES:
1 ECB has implemented negative 0.20% deposit rates for banks. In addition, Deutsche Skatbank has
announced that customers with over
500,000 on deposit as of November 1 will earn a negative interest rate of 0.25%.
2 Wickersham Commission - May 1929 (full name National Commission on Law Observance and
Enforcement)
3 Wikipedia: Hobsons Choice is a free choice in which only one option is offered. As a person may refuse to
take that option, the choice is therefore between taking the option or not; take it or leave it.
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