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5 SEISMO-TECTONIC MODELING

5.1 INTRODUCTION
Earthquake is a natural phenomenon and earthquakes can happen at any time at about any
place. But mostly they occur at some weak planes or places under stress - faults.
Earthquakes do happen at places other than faults but their frequency and magnitude are
quite less than those at these preferred sites. So as a matter of fact, it is assumed that
seismicity is mostly associated with certain tectonic features.
The tectonic features have specific source mechanisms expressing their characteristics.
These source mechanisms are mainly understood from fault plane solutions regarding
associated earthquakes. Conversely, source mechanism solutions of different earthquakes
confirm their association with a known fault system.
Tectonic features of certain source mechanisms and dimensions can produce specific
earthquakes of maximum magnitude potential. Moreover, their associated seismicity also
helps us about achieving the goal of determination of maximum magnitude potential. The
seismo-tectonic model is one of pivotal elements concerning seismic hazard assessment.
In this study, seismo-tectonic model for Pakistan has been developed. It is worthmentioning that the seismo-tectonic modeling is actually the identification of potential
seismic sources in the study area as an evaluation of the tectonic history of the region
considering available geological data and information or an evaluation of historical as
well as recent instrumental seismic data in relation to the study area, emphasizing that
these data are the key empirical basis for conducting seismic hazard analyses.
Available and relevant geological information are examined in order to locate and
characterize the active and potentially active geological structures - faults and/or
segments of faults which may represent a potential seismic source which could influence
seismic hazard evaluation at a certain site. Additional information about the earthquake
rupture processes, mode of faulting, stress field, source mechanism, etc. can improve the
understanding of the geodynamics of the study area.

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The geological and seismological information is used to formulate the models for the
potential earthquake sources which could influence the seismic hazard at certain site. The
key aspects of the source characterization are the modeling of area sources basing on the
geology of the region generally and on earthquake occurrence statistics depending upon
the historical and contemporary seismicity catalogues particularly, and modeling of faultspecific sources with the three-dimensional geometry, if such detailed information is
somehow available. It is noteworthy that detailed fault modeling is rarely included in the
regional hazard studies just as in this case. The characterization of each seismic source
would be comprehensive depending upon the seismic data and will explicitly incorporate
the uncertainties in each source characteristics. Maximum earthquake magnitude
potentials are evaluated using a combination of physical methods, historical seismicity
and empirical evidence from geologically similar regions. The actual seismic hazard
computations for a certain site are based on the integrated probabilistic contribution to the
ground motion by the fault-specific and area sources modified by the seismic wave
attenuation (PMD and NORSAR, 2007).

5.2 TECTONIC SETTING OF PAKISTAN

Plate tectonics has been very successful in providing a cogent framework to explain large
scale geological and tectonic features, both on the boundaries between the tectonic plates
but also within them. Seismicity and fault plane solutions quite clearly outline the fault
zones and relative motion of tectonic plates, and the new GPS measurements have
opened new significant insights into the dynamics of the plate motions. Plate tectonics
theory explicates that the Himalayan mountain ranges are actually a consequence of the
Indian - Eurasian plates collision, as shown in Figure 5-1.
The Indian subcontinent plate has been subducting beneath the Eurasian plate since a
long while. During this time of 30-40 million years, continental lithosphere longer than
2000 km has been shortened into the massive mountain ranges and elevated plateaus of
the central Asia (e.g., Molnar and Topponier, 1975; Bollinger et al., 2004). The
earthquake activity clearly exhibits that the earthquakes mainly concentrate along the
plate margins (Figure 5-2). It clearly shows the regional earthquake distribution even
without the details about the map (time period, sources, magnitude type etc.).

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The Himalayan region is quite massive and contains large parts that are remote and
sparsely populated but overview of the seismicity there for the last 500 years can be
sought, even with the indications of an earthquake deficit at present in some of its parts
(Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Bilham and Ambraseys, 2005; Feldl and Bilham, 2006).
The creation of the highest mountains in the world has been resulted from this continentto-continent collision in the Himalayas (Figure 5-1), which are still being uplifted more
rapidly than any other mountain range in the world.

Figure 5-1. Collision of Indian plate with Eurasian plate

Following remarkable mountain structures have resulted from this collision:

The Himalayan ranges in central region.
The Arakan-Yoma Mountain ranges of Burma in the east.
The Naga Hills of Assam towards the east.
The rising Tien-Shan Mountain ranges in the central Asia.
The Karakoram Mountain ranges in Pakistan.
The Hindu Kush Mountains and the Pamir ranges.

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The Baluchistan arc marked by the Kirthar as well as Sulaiman ranges delineating

the continent-continent collision zone in the west.

Figure 5-2 shows the regional seismicity and their association with the tectonic
boundaries.

Figure 5-2. The regional seismicity of Southern Asia (above magnitude 4.0) according to USGS

According to the Figures 5-1 and 5-3 the mountains, notably Hindu Kush, Pamir and
Karakoram, are characterized by the deep and concentrated seismicity by which
significant seismic energy is discharged every year. The Hindu Kush and Pamir are
amongst the most active seismic regions of world (Nowroozi, 1971). The Himalayas and
the Baluchistan Arc are the southernmost frontal parts of this collision zone which
extends north-ward through Afghanistan and Tibet into China and the Central Asia.
Figure 5-3 shows how the Chaman fault meets with the Herat fault and in the Pamir
region these tectonic structures bend east-ward and split into the Karakoram and the

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Altayan Tagh fault systems. The under-thrusting of Indian shield beneath Himalayas and
transverse ranges of the Baluchistan arc was clearly recognized from the fault plane
solutions, as shown in Figures 5-3, 5-8 and 5-9. (Tandon and Srivastava, 1975). Leftlateral strike-slip movement upon the north-south striking Chaman fault has been
postulated on the basis of the geologic evidence (Wellman, 1966) and this is partly
supported by the focal mechanism solutions in Figure 5-8.

Figure 5-3. Major tectonic features in Pakistan (courtesy: Geological Survey of Pakistan)

The Sulaiman as well as the Kirthar ranges are aligned in north-south direction creating
the significant Baluchistan Arc (Figure 5-3). Near Nanga Parbat, NW-SE trending
mountains of the Kashmir, forming the western portion of the Himalaya Arc, bend
stridently to south (Meltzer et al., 2001) forming western Himalayan syntaxis (often
called as the Hazara-Kashmir syntax). From there, NE-SW trending of Baluchistan arc is
generally maintained along Sulaiman-Kirthar mountain ranges for nearly 1000 km. Then

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it takes a sharp turn to west and maintain almost east-west trending along Makran coastal
ranges and mountain ranges of Southern Iran. These two mountain ranges express a
dynamic arc system by many researchers (Farhoudi and Karig, 1977). William (1976) has
documented about the structure of Baluchistan arc and has illustrated it as similar to the
Himalaya arc and it is also dominated by the tight folds as well as over thrusts
On southern end of Sulaiman ranges, the mountains sharply turn towards west,
maintaining an east-west trending for about 300 km, and then take another sharp twist to
south in the vicinity of the city of Quetta surrounding the Sibi trough (Figure 5-3). The
north-south trending continues along the mountains of Kirthar (West, 1934). The
Sulaiman as well as Kirthar mountain ranges are quite alike in many aspects such as
geology, structure and stratigraphy.
Structure of area consists of a complex folds and thrusts having axes shifting from eastwest to the north-south. The Chaman fault (Figure 5-3) is a seismically active fault. It
starts from Hirat, Afghanistan, in the west and moves to the east and causes the seismic
activities in Pakistani area. It bypasses the angular configuration of the Quetta and the
Sulaiman ranges. It connects to the Kirthar range from west of Quetta. The Chaman fault
zone characterizes the western boundary of this wide deformation zone. While its
northern part traverses Afghanistan, the central part goes into Pakistan northwest of
Quetta before it continues southwards towards the Arabian Sea (PMD and NORSAR,
2007).

5.3 SEISMO-TECTONICS OF PAKISTAN

Pakistan is situated on the north-west part of Indian plate which subducts beneath
Eurasian plate. Direction of the horizontal compression has been deduced from the focal
mechanism solutions as shown in Section 5.5.4 (Figure 5-8). Pakistan was divided into 18
zones for the study of earthquake hazard in Pakistan (see Figure 5-5 later).
The Hindu Kush region generates regularly quite large earthquakes, occurring down to
300 km depth, which are also felt in most of Pakistan. The direction of crustal stress in
the Kashmir is NE-SW, perpendicular to the line of plate collision and the MBT. In the
Hindu Kush region, the earthquake mechanism is generally thrust faulting occasionally
normal faulting whereas in the Kashmir, the earthquakes mainly show thrust faulting

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mechanism with a clear NE-SW compression. Both the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush
ranges are caused by the Indian - Eurasian plates collision. The Indian plate collides and
under-plates the Eurasian plate.
In the Kashmir region the important Hazara-Kashmir Syntax (HKS) is found, which was
formed due to the change in the Himalayan thrust interface direction from NE in Kashmir
to the NW along the Indus. The Punjal thrust as well as the MBT (Main Boundary
Thrust) are folded around this syntax and are subject to a 90o rotation from one side to
the other side. Active Jhelum fault truncates the Punjal thrust, MBT and Kashmir thrust
(Baig and Lawrence, 1987). Beside other faults in the region, the Jhelum fault acts as an
active left-lateral oblique reverse fault. General seismicity pattern of the Jhelum-Ambore
zone is low activity of regular earthquakes with magnitudes 4.0. The historical and the
instrumental seismic data from this region show no earthquake with a size exceeding
magnitude 6.8.
In the western Himalayas (Gilgit Area of Gilgit-Baltistan), the seismic activity is
associated with the earthquakes of magnitude 5 and larger, and largely coincides with the
surface trace of the Himalayan Main Central Thrust (MCT) rather than with the
Himalayan Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) which represents the structural boundary.
Many of the earthquakes that occur on the MBT take place at shallower depths and are
associated with a shallow northward dipping subsurface extension of the MBT
underlying the MCT (the under-plating of the Eurasian plate). One section of the eastern
Himalayan frontal thrust was relatively quiet during the last many decades. This is the
source zone of the Kangra earthquake of Ms 8.0 which occurred in 1905 and which
extended from Kangra to Dehra Dun, i.e. 76o E to 78o E (Middlemiss, 1910).
The second section of currently low seismic activity is near the eastern flanks of the
Kashmir syntaxial bend (Figure 5-2). Note that the north western end of the zone of low
activity in the Kashmir stops against a zone of high activity which is mainly the area of
the destructive Pattan earthquake of December 28, 1974 (Magnitude 6.0) and the 8th
October, 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake (Mw 7.6).
The seismicity in the Kirthar range is relatively diffused as compared to that in the
Suleiman range. In the latter, the seismicity falls on or near a well defined fault scarp
which offsets the range against the east-ward extending Indus basin. The northern two

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thirds of the faults have been ruptured in the large Much earthquake of August 27, 1931
(West, 1934).
The most remarkable clustering of seismic activity in Figure 5-3 occurs in the Quetta
transverse range as far as 100 km south of its higher peaks and is situated within or
beneath the thick young tertiary sediments of the Indus basin.

5.4 SIGNIFICANT FAULTS OF PAKISTAN

It has been established that the major faults of Pakistan appear to be seismically quiet
except at the times of large earthquakes (e.g. Nakata et al., 1991). It seems that this
silence (or seismic gap) is at least true for the Himalayas. It represents a problem while
conducting seismic hazard evaluation as we can find a seismic gap in an area and it may
be found inactive for larger time periods than the monitoring record
Also, while a thrust regime clearly dominates in several places of the study area, it is
often difficult or impossible to associate specific seismic activity with specific fault
traces, and this leads to the conclusion that many faults may be blind.
The description below is mainly based on the Seismic Risk Map of northern Pakistan
produced by the National Geo-data Centre, GSP (Geological Survey of Pakistan), 1988
and a number of other sources. These faults contribute towards allocation of source zones
and determination of deterministic seismic hazard assessment at different locations.
These are the significant as well as the major faults of Pakistan influencing seismotectonic model. Map of all the faults, which are more than 50, used in the study is
presented in Figure 5-3.

5.4.1 Jhelum fault

It is an important strike-slip fault (wrench fault) trending north-south, which tracks the
western periphery of axial zone of Hazara- Kashmir syntaxial bend. The fault was
reported by the original researchers to extend along the Jhelum river and further southwards to the Chaj Doab. Between Muzaffarabad and Kohala, this fault apparently
dislocates the MBT and a left-lateral offset of about 30 km is indicted on the western
limb of the syntaxis (see Figure 5-3). In this region of Murree, Abbottabad and Hazara
the geological formations are extremely deformed as well as displaced several km south-

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wards. It is the youngest and active major tectonic feature in the syntaxial zone. Based on
the seismicity, the fault is quite an active one (Mahdi, 2005).

Figure 5-4. Tectonic faults considered in the study

5.4.2 Tarbela fault

It is also a strike-slip fault that passes below the Tarbela dam and separates the Salkhlala
and Tanawal formations on the west bank of the Indus River from the Abbottabad
formation.

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5.4.3 Margalla Fault

It is an important fault, which runs along NE-SW direction and joins the main boundary
thrust (MBT) in the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial zone. It passes north of Islamabad on the
southern piedmont slopes of the Margalla Hills. As a result of this fault, the Datta
formation and the Samanasuk limestone are thrusted over the Lockhart limestone. There
is no record or indication of any recent movement along the Margalla fault.

5.4.4 The Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT)

The Main Karakoram Thrust or the northern mega shear represents the collision zone of
the southern margin of the Eurasian plate in Asia and extends into the Baltistan area
through Hashupa and Machie in the Shigar and Shyok valleys, respectively. MKT is a
high angle, seismically active thrust with a large number of earthquakes of low to
medium intensity (Seismic Risk Map of Northern Pakistan, 1988, PGS).

5.4.5 The Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)

The Main Mantle Thrust or the southern mega shear is a north-ward dipping regional
thrust which detaches the Indian plate from the Kohistan Island Arc. It spans an area of
approximately 400 sq. km through the districts of Diyamir, Kohistan, Swat, Dir and
Bajaur with a total length of 420 miles. Its extension is from Khar (Bajaur Agency) in
west to Naran in the east. Shortest distances from Islamabad and Peshawar are 87 and 46
miles, respectively.

5.4.6 The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)

The Main Boundary Thrust is a distinct and important tectonic feature along the entire
Himalayan Belt. The MBT loops around the Hazara syntaxial zone. It represents the
major zone of recent deformation and the largest earthquakes. The MBT stretches from
the Afghan border, and can be traced nearly continuously to the Assam through Eastern
India. It is the single most potent earthquake source in the Himalayas. IslamabadRawalpindi area is located at a close distance south of the western limb of the MBT.
MBT and MMT are mostly considered to have different segments while calculating the
associated seismic hazard.

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5.4.7 Punjal Thrust

Punjal thrust Fault is a significant active tectonic characteristic of some regional
importance. It also comprised of several segments. This fault meets the Khairabad fault
situated on Northern Attock Cherat range. Therefore, it is also known as PunjalKhairabad thrust.

5.4.8 Kalabagh Fault

Kalabagh fault is a prominent right-lateral strike-slip fault which extends between
Kalabagh and Mianwali. It truncates at the western margin of the Salt Range.

5.4.9 Salt Range Thrust

SRT encapsulates southern edge of Salt range separating the Jhelum and the Indus rivers.
SRT terminates in the west against Kalabagh fault and its eastern termination is near the
right bank of Jhelum river.

5.4.10

Kurram Fault

Kurram Thrust is a NNE-WSW trending north-ward dipping active tectonic feature

separating the Kakar Khorsan Flysh basin in the north and the west from Bela Ophiolite
thrust and fold belt in the east and south.

5.4.11

Sulaiman Range Fault

In Sulaiman range, two left-lateral wrench faults eastern and western margin of the range
have been identified. On the eastern side, two faults constitute a left-lateral fault system
having Chaudhan fault and Domanda fault. On the western side, there are three N-S
trending faults constituting a left-lateral fault system. These faults comprise Thakht-eSulaiman fault, Manikhawa fault and Moghulkot fault.

5.4.12

Chaman Transverse Fault

Chaman fault is one of the major left-lateral transform faults of Pakistan. Chaman fault is
an active plate boundary which defines the western periphery of Indo-Pakistan plate. It
connects Makran convergence zone with Himalayan convergence zone (Indo-Pakistan

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plate is under-thrusting the Eurasian plate here). Chaman fault is amongst the most
significant and the active geodynamic features which has a wide fault zone.

5.4.13

Kirthar Fault

Kirthar fault is quite a prominent N-S trending lineament on the satellite imagery. Kirthar
fault along with the other N-S trending en-chelon faults of the Kirthar range front and
foothills are considered seismically active. A number of earthquake epicenters are located
in this region, which have been associated with this fault.

5.4.14

Ghazaband Fault

It is a NNE-SSW orientation fault, located in the Ghazaband Pass Kirdgap region. At

places the fault is concealed under the alluvium. Southward it trends to merge with the
Chaman/Oranch-Nal transform fault system.

5.4.15

Pab Fault

Pab fault has a NNW-SSE trending, located along western boundary of Khude fold belt.
Pab thrust is considered seismically active, located in the north-west vicinity of Karachi.

5.4.16

Hoshab Fault

Hoshab fault is one of many major thrust faults which divide the Makran region into a
number of thrust bound blocks. Hoshab fault is situated in the Makan convergence zone,
which is an intensely deformed, east-west trending fold and thrust belt. This fault has an
arc shape having east-west trending near the Nasirabad and Hoshab areas, however eastward it swings to the north-east until it runs parallel to Mashkai rud.

5.4.17

Nai Rud Fault

Nai rud fault is quite an active thrust fault, situated in the vicinity fold and thrust belt
pertaining to the Makran convergence zone and trending east-west. Nai-Rud fault has a
NE-SW trending, almost parallel to the Nai Rud valley and bears the characteristics of a
thrust with left-lateral strike-slip component.

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Run of Kutch Fault

Run of Kutch is an active fault of regional extent having an east-west orientation. The
extensions of this fault in the east as well as the west are, in fact, not so well-defined.
However, two important possibilities have been suggested so far; for east ward extension,
either fault extends along the axis of the great Run of Kutch or it extends to 50 km east of
fort Sidry, where it curves North-east-ward to follow the geomorphic boundary between
the Thar desert and the great Run of Kutch. It is seismically active, which is evident by
several major and minor earthquakes associated to this regional tectonic boundary.

5.5 AREA SOURCES OR SEISMIC PROVINCES

Pakistan was divided into 18 source zones for the study of earthquake hazard in Pakistan.
These zones included some portions of the neighboring countries on the pattern of PMD
and NORSAR (2007). These source zones provide base for the determination of
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at different locations. The region has been
divided into these zones basing on seismicity, stress direction analysis through focal
mechanism solutions and the fault systems. The division was also based on the data
analysis of the whole catalogue regarding the seismicity, depth and the study of earlier
research work (Khan et al., 2003, Khan et al., 2004, Shah et al. 2008 etc.). The 18 seismic
zones are polygons while coordinates of the corners of closed polygons, as were required
to be used in EZ-FRISK, were described in the next sub-section and shown in the Figure
5-5 too.

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Figure 5-5. Seismic Source Zones of Pakistan, as used in the present study

5.5.1 Seismic source zones

There are overall 18 area zones defined for this study, as described in the following:
Zone 1: This zone mainly covered the Chinese territories near the Pakistani border.

Pamir and Kunlun Mountains were part of this zone. The coordinates of the corners of
closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
36.2
36.2

Long. (oE)
75.8
78.0

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Lat. (oN)
38.0
38.0
36.2

97

Long. (oE)
78.0
75.8
75.8

Zone 2: This zone mostly comprised of the border area of Pakistan, Afghanistan,

Tajikistan and China. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
38.0
36.2
36.2
38.0
38.0

Long. (oE)
75.8
75.8
71.0
71.0
75.8

Zone 3: This zone covered the area North Western Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border

Region along with some areas of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Being situated near the
Hindu Kush region, this was the region of large earthquakes. A few records of large
earthquakes were found for this zone in the Historical Earthquake catalogue too. The
coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
38.0
37.0
37.0
38.0
38.0

Long. (oE)
71.0
71.0
66.5
66.5
71.0

Zone 4: This zone was entirely covering the Afghanistan region. Several earthquakes

with their epicenters in or around the Hindu Kush ranges had affected the Northern areas
of Pakistan. A few records of large historic earthquakes were found in the Historical
Earthquake data base. Large earthquakes of Hindu Kush are felt at great distances inside
Pakistan. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
37.0
36.2
35.6
35.5
37.0
37.0

Long. (oE)
71.0
71.0
69.0
67.5
67.5
71.0

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Zone 5: This zone mainly consisted of Indian held Kashmir along with the neighbouring

areas. It was not a densely populated zone but some seismic activity was present. The
coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
36.2
32.0
36.2
36.2

Long. (oE)
78.0
78.0
74.5
78.0

Zone 6: Mostly the Kashmir areas and some parts of the Gilgit region, the KP (Khyber

Pakhtoonkhah) and upper Punjab are situated in this zone. The zone was always quite
active as it covers the Eurasian - Indian plates boundary. Some part of the northern region
of Punjab was included in this zone as it was always affected by the earthquakes of
Kashmir region. Coordinates of this zone were: The coordinates of the corners of closed
polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
32.0
31.0
35.0
36.2
32.0

Long. (oE)
78.0
76.0
72.0
74.5
78.0

Zone 7: This was quite a small zone with respect to area. Chitral was the important city

of this zone. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:

Lat. (oN)
36.2
35.0
35.0
36.2
36.2

Long. (oE)
74.5
72.0
71.2
71.0
74.5

Zone 8: According to the instrumental seismic data catalogue this zone seemed to be

quite active, especially parts of KP. One of the important aspects of this zone was that it
included two provincial capitals: Peshawar and Lahore, the country capital of Islamabad.
The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
35.0

Long. (oE)
72.0

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Lat. (oN)
31.0
31.2
35.0
35.0

99

Long. (oE)
76.0
71.3
71.2
72.0

Zone 9: Some areas of Baluchistan, western Punjab, and most areas of the KP were

included in this zone. The seismic activity in this zone is quite low as compared to that in
the neighboring zones i.e. Zones-12 and 13 in the south and 7 in the north. The
coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
35.0
31.2
31.0
31.3
35.0

Long. (oE)
71.2
71.3
68.0
67.8
71.2

Zone 10: This zone covered mainly the Afghan Eastern border region with Pakistan.

Many active faults were located in this zone, which had generated significant earthquakes
in the past as well as during the recent few decades. The coordinates of the corners of
closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
36.2
35.0
31.3
30.1
31.2
35.6
36.2

Long. (oE)
71.0
71.2
67.8
65.0
64.0
69.0
71.0

Zone 11: This was the largest zone with reference to area, but it had the least seismicity.

It covered most parts of plain areas of Punjab and Sindh including the western areas of
India. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
31.0
24.2
24.2
25.0
27.8

Long. (oE)
76.0
70.8
67.3
66.7
68.2

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Lat. (oN)
28.6
31.2
31.0

100

Long. (oE)
69.3
71.3
76.0

Zone 12: Northern Baluchistan and some areas of Punjab were included in this zone.

This zone was the region of a large number of earthquakes with higher magnitudes. The
coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
31.2
28.6
31.0
31.2

Long. (oE)
71.3
69.3
68.0
71.3

Zone 13: Zone 12 and Zone 13 were similar with reference to the geological and the

seismological features. This zone contains Quetta and Sibi area of Baluchistan. The
coordinates of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
28.6
27.8
30.1
31.3
31.0
28.6

Long. (oE)
69.3
68.2
65.0
67.8
68.0
69.3

Zone 14: The western Baluchistan was the main constituent of this zone. The coordinates

of the corners of closed polygons were:

Lat. (oN)
30.1
27.2
28.0
32.0
31.2
30.1

Long. (oE)
65.0
63.0
60.0
60.0
64.0
65.0

Zone 15: The Central Brahui range, Siahan range, Kirthar range and the Central Makran

mountain ranges run through this zone. Only four earthquakes were found in this zone in
the ISC catalogue having M 6.0. The coordinates of the corners of closed polygons
were:

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Lat. (oN)
27.8
25.0
27.2
30.1
27.8

101

Long. (oE)
68.2
66.7
63.0
65.0
68.2

Zone 16: The area of this zone was mostly of India (Run of Kutch) but earthquakes of

this zone have affected even upto the largest city of Pakistan, Karachi. The coordinates of
the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
24.2
23.0
23.0
24.2
24.2

Long. (oE)
70.8
72.0
67.3
67.3
70.8

Zone 17: This zone consisted of the active subduction zone just off the Makran coast

which generated the 1945 earthquake of magnitude 8.2 Ms a and a tsunami was generated
by this huge earthquake which struck the Makran coast. The coordinates of the corners of
closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
23.0
23.0
27.2
25.0
24.2
23.0

Long. (oE)
67.3
61.5
63.0
66.7
67.3
67.3

Zone 18: This zone primarily covered the portion of South Eastern Iran. The instrumental

seismic data catalogue contained three earthquakes each having M 6.0 whereas the
historical earthquake database had no significant reports from this zone. The coordinates
of the corners of closed polygons were:
Lat. (oN)
27.2
23.0
23.0
28.0
27.2

Long. (oE)
63.0
61.5
60.0
60.0
63.0

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5.5.2 Zones of high seismic activity in Pakistan

It was observed with the analysis of these source zones, their locations and general
seismic activity of region that most of the (large) earthquakes had occurred in the
following regions:
Hindu Kush region.
Kashmir and the Northern Areas of Pakistan.
Northern part of Baluchistan.
Coastal regions of Pakistan around the Makran area.
The south-eastern area of Pakistan near the Run of Kutch.

Figure 5-6 expressed the seismicity of the study area with the 18 zones laid on it. These
zones of high seismic activity in Pakistan could very easily be recognized from this
figure.

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Figure 5-6. Seismicity of the region and the 18 source zones

5.5.3 Zones and hypocentral depths

The focal depths of earthquakes vary from the shallow to deep in the whole study area, as
shown in Figure 5-7 for all of the 18 source zones defined in this study. It was found that
from north to south the depths and mechanism of earthquakes were different in different
seismic zones. Generally the seismicity of Pakistan was considered to be shallow and
intermediate depths. This range of focal depths made the choice, about ground-motion
models in the hazard calculations, a trivial one.

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300

Depth Range (km)

250

200

150

100

50

0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Source Zones
Figure 5-7. Distribution of focal depths in the 18 zones

In Figure 5-7 all of the 18 zones were analyzed, because it was necessary to find out the
depths of earthquakes occurring in each seismic zone, it is one of the important input
parameters of EZ-FRISK. The histogram analysis clearly demonstrated the deep
seismicity in the Hindu Kush region comprising Zone 2, 4 and 7. But it was noted that
seismicity of this region has a depth range and most of the earthquakes are shallow. This
information was kept in mind as it will be helpful while running the SHA software. This
region was given more importance since the Hindu Kush seismicity was contributing
significantly to the hazard for locations outside of this region too.
There were also some other zones with some deep seismicity, notably zones 1, 3, 9 and
14. However, these zones had lower seismicity and were therefore contributing less to the
hazard, and therefore had not been treated as for the Hindu Kush zones. Shallow depth

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earthquakes are responsible for more hazard, so having more of the zones in shallow
depths had resulted on conservative hazard results.

5.5.4 Zones and focal mechanisms

Much of the northern and southern parts of Pakistan are situated in high seismicity areas
with a history of large and damaging earthquakes. Figure 5-8 showing the Harvard CMT
solutions and some Focal Mechanism Solutions determined at MSSP in the Pakistani
region between 1977 and 2010.

Figure 5-8. Focal mechanisms from the Harvard CMT solutions

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The earthquake focal mechanisms in Figure 5-8 provided the description of the mode of
faulting of each single earthquake and implicitly thereby also reflected on the orientation
regarding causative stress-tensor. Because of this, the focal mechanism solutions are used
to reveal the orientation (not the relative magnitudes) of the stresses in the crust. Figure
5-8 was also compared with Figure 5-9, which was from Verma et al. (1979) and they
were found in agreement.

Figure 5-9. Orientation of nodal planes and directions of P and T axes for 31 earthquakes (from
Verma et al., 1979)

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5.6 CONCLUSIONS
Following points were concluded from this chapter:
Seismo-tectonic modeling has to be done keeping in view different tectonic

features of the region, associated seismicity and their source mechanism.

More than 50 significant faults have been considered throughout Pakistan.
These faults contribute towards allocation of source zones and determination of

deterministic seismic hazard assessment at different locations.

A total of 18 source zones have been allocated. These zones had covered some of

the areas of the neighbouring countries.

Source zones present the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

determination.

5.7 SUMMARY
In this study, the seismo-tectonic model was presented and on the basis of this model,
deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard were estimated in next chapters. Seismotectonic model was proposed keeping in view different tectonic features of the study
region, associated seismicity and their source mechanism. Tectonic setup and seismotectonic overview of the study area were highlighted for this purpose. Overall more than
50 significant faults were considered throughout Pakistan while 18 have been described.
These faults also contributed towards the allocation of source zones and determination of
deterministic seismic hazard assessment at different locations later on. A total of 18
source zones were identified/considered. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
determination is based heavily on these source zones. Their analyses with reference to
depth and focal mechanism were also presented.