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Substantial vaccine quantities only available after the 2nd pandemic wave peaked
Every week of acceleration in vaccine supply would have prevented an additional ~300,000
to 430,000 US cases (Borse et al., EID 19, 2013, 439-48)
Chronology
Novartis H7N9 response the first days
March 31 China reports the first 3 human infections with H7N9 influenza, 2 of
them fatal. The China CDC posts sequences on GISAID.
Viral coding
region sequences
posted online
March 31 April 1
HA and NA
gene
synthesis
started
April 2
April 3
Gene
assembly
completed
April 4
Genetic identity of
viruses confirmed
April 5
April 6
April 7
April 8
First evidence of
virus rescue!
April 11 US CDC receives wild type virus from China, enabling the start of
reassortment to generate a conventional vaccine virus
March
April
May
June
Select Agent regulations could delay the vaccine response to a high path
H5N1 avian flu pandemic by weeks to months
In a high path influenza pandemic, every day of delay for permitting and
deliberation could cost 10s of thousands of US lives