ARE WE MOVING IN CYCLES?

Nnamdi Azikiwe, and Alh Tafawa Balewa led us after independence. They led till Maj Gen. Nzeogu
and his colleagues thought that the corruption in the polity is too much. Govt. officials looted the
country so much and flaunted such resources before Nigerians. The coup and counter coup that
followed were due to grievances and a quest for power. In 1979 Shagari came on-board for the
second republic.
There was mass rejection of Shagaris government; the perceived corruption was too much. It is
alleged that the country lost over $16 billion of oil revenue between 1979 and 1983. One of the
major projects of the regime was the Ajaokuta steel complex. So, so much money was lavished on
the project which never worked for a day. Almost every initiative by the government yielded
minimal or no results. The economy suffered. Oil prices fell. The election that followed in 1983 was
judged to be unfair and with violence. Ethnic violence became incessant. The president was seen as
weak and unable to stop the corruption going on.
December, 1983; another coup, Gen. Buhari came on-board. People welcomed the idea. Gen. Buhari
criticized politicians who had led the nation astray and promised to restore Nigerias development.
Democracy and a military govt. are very different. I believe it easier for a head of state to develop a
nation under military than in a democratic dispensation. The fact is there is something called
democratic process which we seem to struggle with, while there isnt a military process.
The nation fared better under Gen. Buhari, but not as much as promised or expected by the people.
But corruption reduced and the nation fared better. People groaned under military governments;
there was suppression here and there. But the brutality of the military was enough to suppress some
elements that the government was against. It was easier for military govts to push through with
policies because of military intelligence of the head of states and the fewer number of persons
involved in such govts.
In my opinion, the democratic govt. led by Chief (Gen.)Olusegun Obasanjo was not significantly
different from the military govts we have had. It still had the firmness and brutality of the military.
Cases in point could be how he dealt with the Ogonis and the Odis early in his govt., and the plane
crash that took the lives of some top military officers . He clearly stated that he might be wearing
agbada, but he is still the same tough guy.
For me, the present republic started with President Musa YarAdua. Immediately he came in the
MEND came up (of course they did not start as MEND, they started gradually). The military style did
not work here, a lot of dialogue and politiking were done. The govt. succeeded in controlling the
militants, especially because all they wanted was money and we had that in abundance.
Democracy awakens the society. They were more strong men in the society, we started hearing
more about the Presidents aids, some govt officials became stronger and more influencial (I
remember Aondoakaa- Minister of Justice, single handedly controlling so much). Not forgetting past
military heads of state whose areas of interest remained power and leadership (not blaming them
since they have no other profession). The national assembly became more vibrant, disagreeing more
with the executive. The media, yes the media; more vibrant too. People could talk more, sometimes

insulting the leaders, other times commenting on issues they are familiar with and those they are
not (maybe just like I am doing).
All these continued more under President Jonathan. Terrorist groups are enjoying a good season,
there is rampant corruption, and the economy is not doing well. So many wonderful policies, but just
like Shehu Shagaris, the regime has been unable to push them through. So much have been
invested in power, agriculture and in job creation initiatives, but just like the last republic, little or
nothing have come out of it.
It seems very little, but from scenario of the first republic, Shehu Shagari, and President Jonathans
reign, it points to the fact that we always struggle with civilian led democracy, especially with
corruption. Not because of lack of initiatives but because of lack of finesse and brute nature
possessed by their military counterparts.
We are back to another election year and APC (which I think sprang up because we have a civilian
president in the first place) wants to send us back to an era like we have known before. I think that
Gen, Buharis regime will be like that of Gen. Obasanjo.
There will be renewed hope if GMB wins. A lot of miscreants will take the back seat, corruption will
reduce, the hope people felt when Jonathan was voted in initially will return, so many politicians will
also take the back seat; definitely, we will not complain of bad eggs surrounding the president, and it
will be easier for govt. initiatives to be implemented. I dont think the govt. will be as responsive
anyway; there definitely will be no national confab, fewer comments by people and also fewer
initiatives.
Things will definitely improve under GMB, but not as much as we think. But the question I keep
asking is how much good will he do for our democracy? After him, who next? IBB? Or who? Or back
to the military?
But if rather we give it to Jonathan, 2015 will definitely be our toughest year. But if we survive it, I
think that things will get better. We would have learnt some lessons about civilian democracy, some
dos and donts. And if the govt. gets into the hand of a civilian head of state after wards, even better
days shall we know.
I would have loved it if APC gave us someone else, so that we will continue to progress in our
democracy slowly but steadily too. It looks to me that we will be going back yet again like we did
with the last republic, shifting our dooms day mid-way into it.
But please, lets not compare GEJ and GMB. They are not the same; they dont bring exactly the
same thing to the table.
Let us also not be fooled by politicians; it is the duty of a government to magnify its good and
minimize its bad, while the opposition does the opposite: minimize good and flaunt bad. Our media
should help us here by investigating (I think the media is failing us more sef).

Pls comment.