Morning Mumble: Contrarian Gold & CU were told...

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Ahhh'fren + AO. World + SHFT
Good Morning, a fab weekend thank you!
Delays because of an earlier than planned phone conference as people appear to not know
the UK is in a different time zone that Switzerland. You are forgiven, this once!
Copper hit a past low, pending one whom you listen to this is 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 years. All
"blamed" on the lack of Chinese Stimulus and Strong U$D. Read in conjunction
with EMC Friday is here...Oil will be grateful & Copper lowering demand higher levels
of "fire sale" inventory and Chinas factory-gate prices tanked.The leverage or lack
of save for the provision by the Chinese(Government) banks wish to provide now, its
impacting on the copper market.
The issues aside of this, as reported by most being that the German industrial
production fell unexpectedly. If it was an unforeseen event, then the consensus should
have read the August figures for Germany Industrial Production (GRIPIMOM) in
August weren't these an indicator of a cycle?Blomberg ran: German Industrial Output
Drops Most Since 2009.
With futures dropping to $2.755/lb and the absence of positive speculation the trend is
set. Historically if oil is setting news lows and test historic support levels then
perhaps copper's chances of Circa $2.5/lb are becoming a real risk.
The oil cycle, inconsistent data from America in terms of wage growth (or lack of)
and lack of new stimulus from China is creating an inconsistent moves inGold. Gold ran
up to $1230/oz. slipping a tad to circa $1224/oz. In the absence of any change in the news
global there is no reason for Gold to be trending so high. Alldeflationary indicators are
kicking in (the above) with oil being the start of the cycle of lower costs (exc. for OPEC
intervention).
Afren (AFR) today came back with a kicking for shareholders with the update on Barda
Rash, Kurdistan region of Iraq far from the news the market was expecting. It doesn't bode
well for any negotiating for the business as rightly so there was a belief of significant upside
in Barda Rash. Will this impact on the offer? Hmmm...In fact save for a significantly
discounted offer, will there be one! Its hard at the current SP to find little value above the
current price for equity holders and if oil deteriorates further, there's a potential default
(nil value for shareholders).
AO World (AO.) third quarter trading statement please the market today...one shall bide
my time there for the next run! At a silly level of future earnings (even today) there's little
room for mistakes from AO.
The leaky ship award goes to Quindell (QPP) and the its only a moment of time
award goes to shaft sinkers (SHFT). There's some rumours out of South Africa that
certain mining companies are going to provide finance. Over toImpala, ENRC (Via
KazChrome) and a few others to decide on the fate...shareholders shouldn't expect too
much. From 2012 the writing has been good for Shaft Sinkers, a casualty where the
equitable risks to projects should have been considered in greater depth (I know). One will
expect a nice apology from a certain group regarding the outcome for Shaft Sinkers. For

a quote from a "professional"...your view of shft is misguided if it ever hits 5 pence there
will be something very wrong. I wonder what said person thinks to tuppence give or take
a few?
With Brent at $48.84/bbl...expect some carnage in the sector. With a timely reminder
that Iron Ore dropping subs $70/t, there were no surprises to the casualties. On
the Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO) contingent , being punished as a result. One hopes they
banked significant profits...
Atb Fraser