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charges of sodomy and corruption designed to keep him from power. One way or
another, a court hearing which began on October 28th looks like the end of the road.
As The Economist went to press Mr Anwar (pictured above, with his wife) was
reaching the conclusion of his final appeal against a five-year prison sentence,
imposed in March, for allegedly having sex with a male aide (sodomy is illegal in
Malaysia). It leaves Pakatan Rakyat, his three-party coalition, on shaky ground.
Mr Anwar has been here before. He was once the rising star of the United Malays
National Organisation (UMNO), which has governed Malaysia since independence in
1957. But a bust-up with Mahathir Mohamadthe prime minister for over two
decadessaw him dumped from the party in 1998 and convicted of sodomy soon
after. That conviction (though not another for corruption) was quashed in 2004, after
Mr Anwar had spent more than five years in jail. He has since fashioned the first
serious challenge to UMNO rule.
The latest case looks just as fishy as the first and began in 2008. The charges were
dismissed in 2012, but in March an appeal court overturned Mr Anwars acquittal.
That came just weeks before a by-election that would probably have enabled Mr
Anwar to become chief minister of Selangor, Malaysias richest state and a prime spot
from which to challenge Najib Razak, the prime minister, at general elections in 2018.
In the months leading up to his appeal, prosecutors have hounded opposition
politicians with charges of sedition and defamation. One of Mr Anwars lawyers is
among eight opposition politicians charged so far. So cynically political have sedition
charges against Pakatan politicians appeared that Malaysias usually docile lawyers
took to the streets in protest.
Mr Anwars conviction bars him from holding a political post for five years after his
sentence is served. Going back to jail would thus probably end the political career of
the 67-year-old, who as leader of Pakatan has enjoyed unprecedented success. Since
2008 the coalition has taken huge bites out of the dominance enjoyed by Barisan
Nasional, the ruling alliance headed by UMNO. At the general election in 2013
Pakatan won just over half the popular vote. But under Malaysias first-past-the-
university appeared to cut the electricity to parts of its campus in order to discourage
students from attending a rally in his defence. But his story is less compelling to
young Malaysians than it was to those who heeded his first calls for change in 1998.
Another jail sentence would make a martyr of him; it would also give his partys
younger leaders a chance to shine.
In the PKR Mr Azmin is the most promising of them. He cut his teeth as Mr Anwars
private secretary during his years in government and has proven a loyal deputy. But
the capable 50-year-old can readily move out from his mentors shadow. Mr Azmin
has greater experience than either Nurul Izzah Anwar, Mr Anwars impressive
daughter, or Rafizi Ramli, a party strategist somewhat tarnished by the Selangor
debacle. Healing the wounds in that state would help convince voters that Mr Azmin
could run the country competently.
As for the prime minister, his people like to push the line that he is a moderniser doing
away with his partys thuggish ways. Certainly, it is hard to see how Mr Anwars case
will benefit Mr Najib even if he thinks him deserving of punishment. He will want to
see the back of a case that is damaging the countrys reputation abroad. But it all
underscores how weak Mr Najibs position has become.
With a general election still four years away, the prime minister faces a threat from
within his own party, notably from conservative factions close to Dr Mahathir, who
still pulls strings from the wings. Whispers abound that an effort to unseat Mr Najib is
imminent. As always, the prime minister touts policies intended to get Malaysias
economy motoring. He has never looked less capable of carrying them out.