Sergej Sedunov

Maths Standard
Mathematical Exploration of the amount of the goals scored in the
first and second halves.

Exam Session: May 2015

School Name: Impington International 6th Form
Course: Maths Standard
Name: Sergejs Sedunovs
Candidate Number:

Sergej Sedunov

Sergej Sedunov

Table of Contents
Introduction:............................................................................................................... 4
Method:...................................................................................................................... 4
Calculations:............................................................................................................... 5
Mean:...................................................................................................................... 5
Standard Deviation:............................................................................................... 11
Conclusion:............................................................................................................... 24
Limitations:............................................................................................................... 25

Sergej Sedunov

Introduction:
When I was trying to find a research topic for my investigation I thought of
choosing an area to explore that interests me the most. Since Im a big fan of
football I decided to work around this area and thought of an idea that I
heard previously while watching football. This idea was to do with
commentators stating the fact that it is very common that most of the goals
are scored in the second half rather than in the first one. While I also looked
at the other ideas, this topic was the one that stood out to me and this was
due to the fact that there was no similar investigations in that area, even
know there were other football areas that were mathematically explored. In
order to choose the right football tournament for carrying out this
investigation I thought of probably the biggest European tournament known
as Champions League.
The way I decided to plan my investigation is to process the raw data from
the uefa.com website which provides the history of the previous Champions
League seasons. As there was no data that was processed already for my
investigation.
The main aim of my investigation is to see whether there will be more goals
scored in the first half or in the second half and from that draw the
conclusions regarding what I have heard in the past from the commentators
while watching football.

Method:
In my investigation I collected secondary data (see Appendix 1) from UEFA
website1. My data included the whole population2 for two seasons
(2012/2013 and 2013/2014) rather than just a sample which helped me to
provide an in-depth analysis. In order to analyze my data I decided to look at
the Mean amount of goals scored in the first half and the second half in
group stages, play-offs and overall (including both group stages and playoffs) for each of the seasons. Also in order to see how did the amount of
goals scored varied in terms of first and second half I did a standard
deviation for the group stages, play-offs and overall (including both group
stages and play-offs). My main idea was to see how did the group stages and
play offs vary in terms of the mean number of goals scored and how did both
group stages and play-offs affect the overall mean. I was also interested in

1 http://www.uefa.com/
2 Total amount of goals scored

Sergej Sedunov

what was more influential in terms of the overall mean, group stages or playoffs.

Calculations:
Mean:
The mean is the average of the numbers: a calculated "central" value of a
set of numbers.3 In my investigation I used mean in order to see how did the
mean number of goals scored in the first and second half vary in the group
stages and play-offs. So later I would be able to see how the group stages did
and play-offs affected the overall mean.
Formulae:
X

X
N

Season 2014/2013:
Group stages 1st half

114
96

= 1.19

3 http://www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/mean.html

Sergej Sedunov

Group stages 2nd half

165
96

= 1.72

Play-offs 1st half

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37
29

= 1.28

Play-offs 2nd half

45
29

= 1.55

Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 1st half

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151
125

= 1.21

Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 2nd half

210
125

= 1.68

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Season 2012/2013:
Group stages 1st half

133
96

= 1.39

Group stages 2nd half

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151
96

= 1.57

Play-offs 1st half

31
29

= 1.07

Play-offs 2nd half

55
29

= 1.90

Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 1st half

Sergej Sedunov

164
125

= 1.31

Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 2nd half

207
125

= 1.66

Sergej Sedunov

In order to find Standard Deviation I first found the value of the sum of
squares (Sxx). The sum of squares is a measure of the total variability of a
set of scores around a particular number, usually the mean of the set of
scores4. First I had to calculate the difference between each of the amount of
goals scored and their mean. These differences are known as deviation
scores and are found using the equation:

x = X- X

Where,
( X )

Is the mean of the obtained scores (amount of goals scored) (X), and

x is the deviation score.

Then I squared each deviation score and added all the squared scores
together which gave me the sum of squares (Sxx), which can be represented
in this formulae:

( X X )2
Standard Deviation:
Standard deviation is a measure of dispersion of the data. In my
investigation I wanted to see how the data was spread by looking at the
amount of goals scored in the first and second halves in group stages, playoffs and overall (play-offs + group stages).
Formulae:

(X X )
n

4 https://www.msu.edu/user/sw/statrev/strv203b.htm

Sergej Sedunov

Season 2014/2013:
Group stages 1st half

Sxx 98.6

Standard Deviation -

98.63
96

= 1.01

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Group stages 2nd half

Sxx 137.4

Standard Deviation -

137.4
96

= 1.20

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Play-offs 1st half

Sxx 29.8

Standard Deviation -

29.8
29

= 1.01

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Play-offs 2nd half

Sxx 43.2

Standard Deviation -

43.2
29

= 1.22

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Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 1st half

Sxx 128.6

Standard Deviation -

128.6
125

= 1.01

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Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 2nd half

Sxx 181.2

Standard Deviation -

181.2
125

= 1.2

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Season 2012/2013:
Group stages 1st half

Sxx 124.7

Standard Deviation -

124.7
96

= 1.14

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Group stages 2nd half

Sxx 133.5

Standard Deviation -

133.5
96

= 1.18

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Play-offs 1st half

Sxx 23.9

Standard Deviation -

23.9
29

= 0.91

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Play-offs 2nd half

Sxx 26.7

Standard Deviation -

26.7
29

= 0.96

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Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 1st half

Sxx 150.8

Standard Deviation -

150.8
125

= 1.10

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Overall (Play-offs + group stages) 2nd half

Sxx 166.2

Standard Deviation -

166.2
125

= 1.15

Sergej Sedunov

Conclusion:
In my conclusion I would say that my main hypothesis which was that the
amount of goals scored in the second half would be more than in a first half
was approved by the data that I collected and analysed. In order to support
my conclusions I presented the data of Mean and Standard Deviation in
separate tables (Table 1 and Table 2) for two season (2013/2014 and
2012/2013). By looking at the overall mean which includes both group stages
and play-offs of both seasons, it is possible to see that in both seasons
(2013/2014, 2012/2013) the overall means of second halves (1.68 and 1.66)
was higher than the mean of first halves (1.21 and 1.31). The biggest
influence on the overall mean of the second halves in the season 2013/2014
was found to be in the group stages, however in the season 2012/2013 the
overall mean was more influenced by play-offs. It is worthwhile mentioning
that the amount of games in play-offs (29) and group stages (96) did vary,
therefore this factor also should be taken into account while looking at the
influence on the overall mean. The highest mean of all goals scored (1.90) of
all the data collected was found in the second halves of the play-offs in the
season 2012/2013. The data was also more dispersed in the second halves in
both seasons when looking at the overall including group stages and playoffs standard deviation was higher (1.20 and 1.15) compared to first halves
(1.01 and 1.10).
Table 1 showing Mean and Standard Deviation for season 2014/2013.

Mean
Standard
Deviation

2014/2
013
Group
Stages,
1st half

2014/2
013
Group
Stages,
1st half

2014/2
013
Play
Offs,
1st half

1.19
1.01

1.72
1.2

1.28
1.01

2014/2
013
Play
offs,
2nd
half
1.55
1.22

2014/2013
(Play offs +
Group
Stage), 1st
half

2014/2013
(Play offs +
Group
Stage),2nd
half

1.21
1.01

1.68
1.2

Table 2 Table 3 showing Mean and Standard Deviation for season 2012/2013.

Mean

2012/2
013
Group
Stages,
1st half

2012/2
013
Group
Stages,
1st half

2012/2
013
Play
Offs,
1st half

1.39

1.57

1.07

2012/2
013
Play
offs,
2nd
half
1.9

2012/2013
(Play offs +
Group
Stage), 1st
half

2012/2013
(Play offs +
Group
Stage),2nd
half

1.31

1.66

Sergej Sedunov

Standard
Deviation

1.14

1.18

0.91

0.96

1.1

1.15

Limitations:
The main limitation of my the secondary data that I collected was to do with
the fact that I only considered two seasons rather than looking onto more
seasons. Therefore I could potentially discover more patterns which could
reveal more potential findings.
Another disadvantage of my mathematical exploration was the fact that I
didnt take into account extra time of the play-offs section which could
potentially affect the mean and standard deviation of the data collected. So
in the future investigation I would also consider the extra-time in order to
provide more in-depth analysis.

Sergej Sedunov

Appendices
2013/2014 UCL Season
Group stages

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2013/2014 UCL5 Season

Play-offs

5 UEFA Champions League

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2012/2013 UCL Season

Group stages

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2012/2013 UCL Season

Play-offs