Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Table of Contents
Tighten your seatbelts................................................................................................................................. 6
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
REVIEW ........................................................................................................................................... 6
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.2
2.3
2.4
Tourism recovery............................................................................................................... 13
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
RISKS.............................................................................................................................................. 22
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
Capital outflow?................................................................................................................. 30
5.2
5.3
Top picks............................................................................................................................ 38
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
CIMB Analyst(s)
NAVIGATING THAILAND
+2SD : 17.0
18.0
16.0
+1SD : 14.5
14.0
Mean : 12.1
12.0
Show Style "View Doc Map"
-1SD : 9.6
10.0
-2SD : 7.2
8.0
6.0
Highlighted Companies
Bangkok Dusit Medical (BGH)
A prime beneficiary of the ASEAN Economic
Community (AEC), as patients from neighbouring
countries are able to cross borders more easily to
seek medical treatment in Thailand, thanks to its
growing hospital network nationwide.
Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL)
Gunkul has recurring income from two large 60mw
wind farm projects in 2015-16 for both engineering,
procurement
and
construction
(EPC)
and
operations. This would account for an estimated
80% of its earnings by 2017. Its Myanmar exposure
provides more earnings upside.
Ratchaburi Electricity (RATCH)
Its solid earnings growth of over 30% in 2014-2016,
will stem from additional capacity of 750MW (13%)
for its 40%-owned Hongsa coal-fired power plant in
2015-16.
Thaicom (THCOM)
New customer contracts and satellite projects will
increase the upside potential to our earnings
forecasts, which are already 11% higher than
consensus in 2014 and 18% higher in 2015.
4.0
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
KEY CHARTS
18% market EPS growth for 2015 way too
high
130
1,800.00
125
1,600.00
120
1,400.00
115
1,200.00
110
105
1,000.00
100
800.00
95
90
600.00
85
400.00
SET Index
19.0
+2SD : 17.0
17.0
+1SD : 14.5
15.0
13.0
11.0
Mean : 12.1
-1SD : 9.6
9.0
7.0
-2SD : 7.2
5.0
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Net Buy/Sell
SET
40000
1800
30000
1600
1400
20000
1200
10000
1000
800
600
-10000
400
200
-30000
40179
40238
40299
40360
40422
40483
40544
40603
40664
40725
40787
40848
40909
40969
41030
41091
41153
41214
41275
41334
41395
41456
41518
41579
41640
41699
41760
41821
41883
41944
-20000
Local Institutes(LHS)
Weighting in
SET
Rec.
Weighting
OW/UW
(ppt)
OW/UW
Hotel
1.3%
2.5%
124
OW
Healthcare
3.0%
4.0%
98
OW
Utilities
1.7%
2.6%
92
OW
Petrochem
6.4%
7.2%
78
OW
Alternative Energy
0.9%
1.5%
60
OW
Technology
0.9%
1.4%
54
OW
Transportation
4.2%
4.5%
34
OW
Property
4.4%
4.8%
33
OW
Mining
0.5%
0.8%
27
OW
Construction
0.9%
1.0%
14
Food
0.6%
0.7%
Auto
0.2%
0.2%
(1)
UW
Construction Materials
0.1%
0.0%
(12)
UW
12.2%
12.0%
(22)
UW
0.3%
0.0%
(29)
UW
17.1%
16.3%
(78)
UW
1.4%
0.2%
(109)
UW
10.9%
9.5%
(142)
UW
Retail
4.8%
2.6%
(227)
UW
Total
71.7%
71.7%
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Bloomberg Ticker
Airports of Thailand
Bangkok Dusit Med Service
Gunkul Engineering
KCE Electronics
Minor International
Ratchaburi Electricity
Thaicom
Average
AOT TB
BGH TB
GUNKUL TB
KCE TB
MINT TB
RATCH TB
THCOM TB
Recom.
Add
Add
Add
Add
Add
Add
Add
Price
(local curr)
285.0
18.20
30.00
38.75
36.75
61.25
35.75
Target Price
(local curr)
258.0
23.80
32.00
45.00
42.00
69.00
52.00
Market Cap
(US$ m)
12,402
8,588
804
666
4,479
2,705
1,193
3-year EPS
CAGR (%)
15.4%
17.2%
56.8%
27.1%
17.0%
20.3%
26.0%
25.7%
P/BV (x)
Recurring ROE (%)
CY2014
CY2015
CY2014
CY2015
4.08
3.69
13.5%
15.0%
6.23
5.57
18.0%
19.2%
7.33
6.24
18.6%
18.4%
3.67
2.93
35.7%
31.5%
5.23
4.60
17.0%
19.1%
1.53
1.43
12.0%
12.2%
2.32
2.12
11.5%
14.3%
4.34
3.79
18.0%
18.5%
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
CY2014
CY2015
CY2014
CY2015
18.3
16.2
1.2%
1.5%
25.9
22.9
1.1%
1.4%
51.5
37.3
0.3%
0.5%
11.0
9.0
2.2%
2.6%
24.0
19.1
1.0%
1.3%
8.5
8.4
3.7%
3.9%
7.5
6.0
2.4%
4.8%
21.0
17.0
1.7%
2.3%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Figure 3: Political events leading up to the May 2014 coup and SET index
1,600
1,550
Aug 8: House pass first
reading of amnesty bill
1,500
Nov 20: Court says Senate
bill amendment breaches
Constitution
1,450
1,400
1,300
Feb 2: Election
1,250
Oct 31: House Passes 2nd
/3rd reading
30/05/2014
16/05/2014
02/05/2014
18/04/2014
04/04/2014
21/03/2014
07/03/2014
21/02/2014
07/02/2014
24/01/2014
10/01/2014
27/12/2013
13/12/2013
29/11/2013
15/11/2013
01/11/2013
18/10/2013
04/10/2013
20/09/2013
06/09/2013
23/08/2013
09/08/2013
26/07/2013
12/07/2013
28/06/2013
1,200
14/06/2013
31/05/2013
1. REVIEW
SOURCE: CIMB
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
coup on 22 May 2014. This was Thailands 12th coup after the country turned
into a constitution monarchy in 1932.
The coup came as no surprise to us, as we believe that Mr Suthep had escalated
the crisis, including setting up roadblocks, organising the Bangkok Shutdown in
early Jan 2014, and blocking constituencies in many provinces in the South so
that candidates could not register their applications, etc., in order to trigger a
military intervention.
But we were surprised that the Yingluck government did not see it coming,
despite the fact that the military announced martial law on 20 May without
informing the government in advance and that it refused to withdraw soldiers
and their shelters even though the situation was calmer in early 2Q14.
Both red shirt leaders and PDRC leaders walked into a trap, and they were
locked up in a military barrack following two days of failed negotiations to
settle their differences, after which the army chief declared a military coup. It
was an easy coup on the part of the military, as leaders of both sides were
locked up and their supporters could not do much without their leaders.
Having learnt from the past coups, especially the one in 2006, the military this
time round used stronger arm tactics. It has tried to disperse any political
protests before ramping up the momentum. And even more than six months
after the coup, the military still refused to lift martial law, despite the fact that
there were few protests on the street. However, the curfew was lifted
throughout the country on 13 Jun, about one month after the coup.
Figure 4: Khon Kean University students were arrested when holding out three
fingers as a sign of protest against the military coup in front of Prime Minister
Prayuth while he was giving a speech in Khon Kean province. The students were
later released
SOURCE: Twitter@WassanaNanuam
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
With the surge in economic activities in early 3Q14, many people thought that
the economy had undergone a V-shaped recovery following a more stable
political environment. They have forgotten that many people withheld their
spending during the 7-month political stalemate. Thus, when political situation
remained calm after the coup, many Thais started to spend money and this
caused a big jump in economic activities. However, we believe that once this
pent-up demand is exhausted, economic activities will cool down again. And
the 3Q14 GDP growth of only 0.6% yoy confirmed our belief.
Figure 5: Long honeymoon period after the coup
1,700
Nov11 LTF tax breaks to end in 2016
1,650
1,600
1,550
May 22: Military coup
1,500
1,450
1,400
Feb 2: Election
Jan 21: State of
emergency
1,250
Nov-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jul-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Jan-14
1,200
SOURCES: CIMB
Figure 6: The Thai market EPS has been revised down 14% this year and 11% next
year, but the market has risen 20% YTD
130
1,800
125
1,600
120
1,400
115
110
1,200
105
1,000
100
800
95
600
90
85
Jan-14
400
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
SET Index
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Northern
Greater Bangkok
1996
8.0%
9.6%
2.8%
Election
1997
0.9%
-1.1%
-6.5%
1998
-6.3%
-5.0%
-9.5%
1999
5.8%
5.8%
4.3%
2000
0.5%
-0.5%
6.1%
2001
1.1%
1.7%
5.4%
2002
5.7%
8.9%
3.8%
2003
8.9%
9.1%
5.7%
2004
2.7%
0.8%
6.9%
2005
1.9%
4.7%
4.5%
2006
5.5%
1.3%
4.3%
2007
5.4%
3.6%
4.9%
2008
-0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
2009
6.3%
1.9%
-1.7%
2010
5.7%
3.5%
8.6%
2011
6.4%
4.6%
0.1%
2012
5.5%
6.2%
8.1%
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
This would lead us back to the question on whether the election in early 2016 is
still likely. The concern that Pheu Thai Party will win the election and become a
new government will make the military government think twice about handing
power back to the public. That said, the government may want to stay in power
longer. But since we believe that the current government's economic
performance is likely to be weak, there will be growing resistance in 2015.
Therefore, the military government may not be able to stay very long either,
even though it may still want to maintain martial law.
We expect the pressure to mount in 2H15. Therefore, it may have to reach a
compromise with Pheu Thai so as not to encroach on each other's turf. With his
younger brother being an assistant army chief, Gen Prayuth can still have
strong support in the army after his retirement in Sep 2014. Therefore, we
believe that this would be a better exit strategy for the current government,
rather than incurring the risk of facing more resistance by staying longer.
Although the Constitution Drafting Committee is likely to design a new
constitution in such a way that there will be more appointed senators and
probably some appointed members of Parliament as well, we believe that it will
still be difficult to gain the necessary support from the general public.
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
expects the new agency to be up-and-running in Jun 2015. This new agency will
be tasked with the bidding process of all rail mass transits and maintaining
them, while the State Railway Authority of Thailand (SRT) and the Mass Rapid
Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) will be providing services to the public.
This could also mean further delays in the bidding process of future mass
transit systems, in our opinion.
Figure 8: North Green Line (Mo Chit-Sapanmai-Ku Kot)
Contract Description
1
2
3
4
Distance
Value
(km) (THB bn)
Bidders
Length (km)
Stations
Development plan
17.5
13
By 2019
9.0
By 2019
11.0
By 2019
Orange
37.5
36
6.0
By 2019
12.0
10
By 2019
10.5
By 2019
7.5
By 2019
By 2019
30.4
12.6
10
Phatthanakan Samrong
17.8
11
By 2029
SOURCES: MRTA, CIMB
11
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Although public investments may pick up next year, it is still uncertain whether
these public investments will crowd out private investments as capacity
utilisation is still hovering around 60% (Figure 11), which is quite low.
Moreover, public investments alone will not be sufficient to revive the Thai
economy if private investments do not pick up as well, since private
investments are more than three times larger than public investments (Figure
10).
The 19% yoy decline in value of projects submitted for BOI privileges in 10M14
also does not bode well for the investment outlook next year. However, given
the political uncertainties in 1H14, we hope that there will be a pick-up in BOI
applications soon.
Figure 11: Public and private investments as a % of GDP
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Private
Public
12
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
40%
70.0
30%
65.0
20%
60.0
10%
55.0
0%
50.0
-10%
45.0
-20%
40.0
-30%
Capacity utilisation
120%
100%
1,200
80%
1,000
60%
800
40%
600
20%
0%
400
-20%
200
-40%
-60%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
9M14
%yoy
13
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
law, which was put in place since 20 May 2014. In addition, the ongoing martial
law is also the reason that many countries still have Thailand on travel alert.
Specifically, 58 countries still have Thailand on travel alert, despite the calm
political climate, vs. 66 countries in June after the coup. With travel warnings,
many tourists are reluctant to travel to Thailand as their insurance may not
cover accidents that are caused by political turmoil in Thailand. Thus, the
tourist arrival recovery may take a longer time than expected and the rebound
may be short-lived if the government still maintains martial law. But since Thai
hoteliers have maintained a tight ship and have been through many crises over
the past decade, we believe that they are prepared to cope with the prospects of
a fragile recovery.
On the contrary, hotels in upcountry are not affected much by political turmoil.
Thus, if tourist arrivals pick up, they should be running at close to optimal
occupancy, i.e. around 75-80%. This should allow them to raise their room
rates more aggressively. In addition, at the optimal occupancy level, hotels
normally do not hand out many freebies, such as free breakfast, free Wi-Fi, or a
free night after two or three paid nights. As such, their margins should increase
nicely in 2015.
Emergency decree
2,600,000
May 14 coup
2,100,000
1,600,000
1,100,000
Airport shutdown
May 10 unrest
600,000
Jan
Feb
2008
Mar
Apr
2009
May
2010
Jun
Jul
Aug
2011
Sep
2012
Oct
2013
Nov
Dec
2014
Africa
1%
ASEAN
27%
3%
Other Europeans
16%
Russia
6%
Other East
Asia
Japan
10%
6%
China
19%
ASEAN
China
Japan
Russia
Other Europeans
USA
Other Americas
South Asia
Oceania
Middle East
Africa
14
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
50
46
May-14
62
47
Jun-14
66
48
Jul-14
60
54
18 Lifted
nationwide
curfew on
13 Jun
Six countries,
Maldives,
Laos,
Cambodia,
6 Vietnam, Nigeria and Kenya lifted travel
Aug-14
60
54
Sep-14
58
54
Oct-14
58
54
Nov-14
58
54
4
SOURCES: Bank of Thailand
15
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Real GDP
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015F
Nominal GDP
% yoy
40
40
30
30
20
% yoy
Title:
Source:
20
15
10 in your rep
Please fill in the values above to have them entered
20
10
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-10
-5
-20
-10
-30
1Q07
2Q08
3Q09
4Q10
1Q12
2Q13
Private consumption
Govt. consumption
Exports
3Q14
-15
1Q07
2Q08
3Q09
4Q10
1Q12
Agriculture
Services
Manufacturing (RHS)
Construction
2Q13
3Q14
Imports
16
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Hopes are pinned on a revival in government stimulus to boost growth but little
has been done so far and given the governments poor track record of project
execution, we think that the risk of delays remains high. Understandably, the
military government has taken a more conservative approach on fiscal spending
in order to clean up corruption in the public sector. As such, a new committee
the State Budget Monitoring and Scrutinising Committee has been set up to
review any government projects worth more than US$30m. However, we think
that this is likely to create bottlenecks in launching government projects.
Moreover, private investors are unlikely to make large commitments pending
further clarity on government policies and effective execution of fiscal plans.
The government is in the process of amending the Foreign Business Act (FBA),
which has the unintended consequences of creating anxiety among foreign
investors surrounding the investment environment.
THB bn
% spent
350
300
110
Title:
Source:
100
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
250
90
200
80
150
70
100
60
50
0
50
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
FY 2014
Apr
May
FY 2013
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
FY 2005
FY 2008
FY 2012
FY 2011
Current
Capital
FY 2014
Total
THB bn
500
Title:
Source:
400
450
350
400
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
300
350
250
300
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
Investment applications
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q08
1Q14
4Q08
3Q09
2Q10
Investment approved
17
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
1Q14
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
3MMA, % yoy
50
3MMA, % yoy
Title:
Source:
120
40
100
4
30
80
20
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
60
10
40
0
20
-10
-2
-20
-20
-4
-30
-40
Jan-07
-40
Feb-08
Mar-09
Apr-10
May-11
MPI
Jun-12
Jul-13
-6
Aug-14
-60
Jan-07
Feb-08
Mar-09
Apr-10
Agriculture products
Manufacturing products
May-11
Jun-12
Jul-13
Aug-14
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
% yoy
20
% yoy
100
50
95
40
Title:
Source:
18
16
38
36
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
34
14
30
90
32
12
10
20
30
10
28
85
8
80
26
0
24
75
-10
2
0
Jan-07
Dec-08
Loans
Nov-10
Deposits (incl. B/E)
Oct-12
70
Sep-14
22
-20
Jan-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Jul-10
May-11
Mar-12
Jan-13
Nov-13
20
Sep-14
Deposits
Liquid assets
US$ bn
7
US$ bn
Title:
Source:
195
10
190
Please fill in the values above to have them entered6 in your report
185
180
175
170
165
-2
160
-4
155
-6
150
-8
1
-1
-3
-5
-7
Jan-11
145
Jan-11
Dec-11
Current account
Nov-12
Oct-13
Oct-11
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
-10
Oct-14
Sep-14
19
Foreign Reserve
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
THB/US$
5.0
Index
Title:
Source:
34.0
4.5
115
33.0
110
4.0
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
32.0
3.5
105
3.0
31.0
2.5
100
30.0
2.0
95
1.5
29.0
1.0
90
28.0
0.5
0.0
Jan-10
Aug-10
Mar-11
Oct-11
Headline CPI
May-12
Dec-12
Core CPI
Jul-13
Feb-14
27.0
Jan-10
Sep-14
85
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
THB/USD
Policy rate
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
REER
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
the last four years to 8% as at mid-2014. Given the high percentage of indebted
households and muted economic growth, the debt servicing ability of
households remains an important risk factor that could dent potential
consumption. As at end-2Q14, the debt servicing ability of households
deteriorated slightly and the delinquency and NPL ratios of consumer loans
edged up to 6% (vs. 5.8% in 1Q14) mainly due to auto leasing and other
personal loans. The upside is household liquidity remains high as reflected by
the ratio of household financial assets to household debt, which stabilised at 2x.
Ultimately, the sustainability of the recovery rests on continued political
stability and private sector participation. Greater clarity on government policies
and effective execution of fiscal plans will help to restore investor confidence
and drive private investment. After the last coup in 2006, the military
government stayed for a year. But there is a growing possibility is that it may
stay for longer this time.
Price
% yoy
80
Price
Title:
Source:
100
700
90
600
60
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
80
500
70
40
60
400
50
20
300
40
0
30
200
20
100
-20
10
-40
Jan-08
0
Jan-13
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
0
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-14
Rubber (THB/kg)
Farm production
Sugar (US$/lb)
THB tr
12
Times
THB tr
Title:
Source:
30
90
80
3.0
25
10
2.5
70
8
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
60
20
2.0
15
1.5
10
1.0
0.5
50
6
40
4
30
20
2
10
0
1Q03
0
2Q04
3Q05
4Q06
1Q08
2Q09
3Q10
4Q11
1Q13
2Q14
0.0
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
Household debt
Household debt
% of GDP (RHS)
2Q13
1Q14
21
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
4. RISKS
4.1 Strong economic headwinds
Exports is Thailands biggest economy driver, forming 73% of GDP in 9M14. At
the beginning of this year, the authorities expected exports to expand by 4% yoy
in 2014. A few months later, the government lowered its 2014 export growth
forecast to 3% and subsequently to 2%. It now projects zero export growth in
2014, after exports contracted by 1% in 9M14.
In our view, there are structural reasons for Thailands weak export
performance, including:
1) Thailand is not part of the major supply chain for high-end electronic parts,
which are used in mobile gadgets such as the iPhone and iPad. As such,
Thailands exports of computers and parts have underperformed total exports
over the past decade (Figure 35). Exports of computers and parts accounted for
12% of Thailands total exports in 2000 but only comprised 7% in 2013.
Thailands failure to move into the higher value-added computers and parts
supply chain could be due to the series of political crises. It would take
significant time and effort for Thailand to attract foreign investment in new
technology. It would also require a more stable political environment.
Therefore, we do not expect Thailands exports of computers and parts to turn
around in the near term.
In addition, an economic slowdown in China will also hurt Thailand's export
performance. Note that Thailands exports to China contracted 5% vs. flat
growth for total exports in 10M14. A further slowdown in China will also weigh
down Thailand's export growth in 2015.
Figure 36: Exports of computers and parts vs. total exports
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9M14
-10%
-20%
Thai exports (%yoy)
2) Thailands auto exports, which were strong in the past decade, have started
to face competition from its neighbouring countries in 2014. The weaker auto
exports could also be attributable to the countrys political problems, which are
forcing the carmakers to diversify their investments away from Thailand.
Indonesia appears to be a natural choice, given its large domestic market. Auto
exports only contributed 5% of Thailands total exports in 2000 but rose to 14%
in 2013 and 9M14.
22
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Figure 37: Thailands auto exports facing more competition from neighbouring
countries
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9M14
-10%
-20%
-30%
Thai exports (%yoy)
-10%
-20%
-30%
Thai exports (%yoy)
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
12,000
70%
10,000
Title:
Source:
140.00
60%
100%
120.00
80%
50%
30%
6,000
100.00
40%
8,000
80.00
40%
60.00
20%
40.00
0%
20.00
-20%
20%
10%
4,000
0%
-10%
2,000
-20%
-
-30%
THB/ton
-40%
%yoy
THB/kg
%yoy
The rice subsidies gave farmers an incentive to grow more rice and the
countrys rice output has increased from about 30m tonnes in 2005 to 37.7m
tonnes in 2013. Given the 18m tonnes of rice inventory under the Yingluck
governments rice-pledging scheme, Thailands huge rice stockpile is likely to
continue to put pressure on rice prices next year.
The high rubber prices a few years ago encouraged farmers to plant more
rubber trees, causing the mushrooming of rubber plantations beyond the
Southern region (traditional rubber-growing area in Thailand). Hence, there
was a big spike in rubber output over the past couple of years. In our view, the
higher rubber output will continue to weigh on rubber prices in 2015 as well.
Figure 41: Thailand's annual output of paddy rice and rubber
45.0
4.5
40.0
4.0
35.0
3.5
30.0
3.0
25.0
2.5
20.0
2.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
24
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Figure 42: Thai market EPS has been revised down 14% this year and 11% next year,
but the market has risen 20% YTD
130
1,800
125
1,600
120
1,400
115
110
1,200
105
1,000
100
800
95
600
90
85
Jan-14
400
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
SET Index
25
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
In Jul 14, the NCPO ordered the NBTC to postpone the planned spectrum
auction for 1800MHz for 12 months in order to give SOE telcos (TOT and CAT)
a longer grace period to come up with their survival plans. On 21 Jul 14, Deputy
Prime Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan set up the Digital Economy
working group, with Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula as the
chairperson alongside eight other members. The group is tasked with drafting
the ministry bill. The military government has proposed a digital economy
policy framework that will involve 1) the transition of the ICT Ministry to the
Digital Economy Ministry, 2) the amendment of the Frequency Allocation Act
to restructure the NBTC and place it under the supervision of the Digital
Economy Ministry, and 3) the amendment of the Telecoms Business Act.
The market is likely to be confused with the misalignment of the junta
governments Digital Economy Policy and the NBTCs mandate to auction
1800MHz spectrum in Jul-Aug 15 as planned. This implies higher uncertainties
with regard to the spectrum auction. The visibility of the spectrum auction is
certainly the key swing factor to determine mobile operators' share price
performances in FY15.
True will be a prime beneficiary of the lengthy delay in the 4G spectrum auction,
as the award will weaken its now superior competitiveness in spectrum holding,
regulatory cost and 3G/4G first-mover advantage. On the contrary, AIS will
clearly benefit the most if the spectrum auctions can happen on time as AISs
bandwidth limitation will be resolved, thus allowing it to regain its
competitiveness.
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
cost of NGV should now be about THB8/kg vs. THB9/kg before the sharp
plunge in oil prices. The cost to transport gas should remain stable at about
THB5.56/kg. So, the new cost of NGV should be about THB14.5/kg, including
7% value-added tax, down from THB15.58/kg previously. With the current
market price of THB12.50/kg, the retail NGV price would have to rise by
another THB2.00/kg or about 16%.
Which one has higher impact on the public? (LPG vs. NGV) Between
LPG and NGV, we believe that the LPG price increase will impact the public
more than the NGV price increase. This is due to 1) the number of vehicles
using LPG accounts for 3.27% of Thailands total 35.4m vehicles. This compares
with only 1% for NGV; and 2) LPG price increase will impact not only the
transportation sector but other segments like cooking gas, industrial, and
petrochemicals as well, while NGV is used only in the transportation sector.
Party impacted
EA, GUNKUL, SOLAR, SPCG
PTT
Impact
Positive
Positive
Date
18-Aug-14
Negative
28-Aug-14
PTT, PTTGC
PTT (+)
PTTGC (-)
4Q14F
Positive
Nov-14
USD
140
130
120
44
USD
140
42
130
120
40
110
THB
31
Title:
Source:
30
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
29
110
38
100
100
28
36
90
90
34
80
70
32
70
60
30
60
Brent (USD)
27
80
Gasohol 95 (THB)
26
25
Brent (USD)
Diesel (THB)
The retail prices of diesel are likely to move up as well. Prior governments tried
to cap diesel prices below THB30/litre to limit the impact on transportation
cost and the cost of living. To date, Brent oil prices have plunged more than
30%, but the retail prices of gasoline in Thailand have not come down as much,
since the government levies various taxes on gasoline. As such, gasoline prices
have fallen by about 13-15%, while diesel prices have declined by only 2% as the
government starts collecting contributions to the Oil Fund from diesel, rather
than providing subsidies from the Oil Fund for diesel. However, excise tax and
municipal tax on diesel are still way below other gasoline prices. Therefore, we
believe that the current government will start raising these taxes on diesel. We
believe that ultimately retail diesel prices will be closer to Gasohol 95 E10 or
27
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
EX-REFIN.
TAX
M. TAX
OIL
CONSV.
WHOLESALE
VAT
WS&VAT
(AVG)
B./LITRE
B./LITRE
FUND
FUND
PRICE(WS)
ULG
19.1895
5.6000
0.5600
9.6500
0.2500
35.2495
2.4675
37.7170
GASOHOL95 E10
20.2928
5.0400
0.5040
4.1500
0.2500
30.2368
2.1166
32.3534
GASOHOL91
20.0649
5.0400
0.5040
2.4500
0.2500
28.3089
1.9816
GASOHOL95 E20
21.3051
4.4800
0.4480
0.7000
0.2500
27.1831
GASOHOL95 E85
26.9844
0.8400
0.0840
-8.2300
0.2500
H-DIESEL
20.3479
0.7500
0.0750
4.3000
0.2500
MARKETING
VAT
RETAIL
3.4047
0.2383
41.36
1.8192
0.1273
34.30
30.2906
1.8593
0.1302
32.28
1.9028
29.0859
1.7702
0.1239
30.98
19.9284
1.3950
21.3234
1.4548
0.1018
22.88
25.7229
1.8006
27.5235
1.7444
0.1221
29.39
MARGIN
EX-REFIN.
TAX
M. TAX
OIL
CONSV.
WHOLESALE
VAT
WS&VAT
(AVG)
B./LITRE
B./LITRE
FUND
FUND
PRICE(WS)
ULG
25.9942
7.0000
0.7000
10.0000
0.2500
43.9442
3.0761
47.0203
GASOHOL95 E10
26.2972
6.3000
0.6300
3.3000
0.2500
36.7772
2.5744
GASOHOL91
26.0681
6.3000
0.6300
1.2000
0.2500
34.4481
GASOHOL95 E20
26.5090
5.6000
0.5600
-1.3000
0.2500
31.6190
GASOHOL95 E85
26.9851
1.0500
0.1050
-11.6000
0.2500
H-DIESEL
27.3249
0.0050
0.0005
-0.7000
0.2500
MARKETING
VAT
RETAIL
0.9623
0.0674
48.05
39.3516
1.1013
0.0771
40.53
2.4114
36.8595
1.1406
0.0798
38.08
2.2133
33.8324
1.6333
0.1143
35.58
16.7901
1.1753
17.9654
5.9015
0.4131
24.28
26.8804
1.8816
28.7620
1.1477
0.0803
29.99
MARGIN
140USD
25
130
23
120
21
110
19
100
90
17
80
15
70
13
60
11
50
9
40
30
20
Brent (USD)
LPG (THB)
NGV (THB)
28
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
PTT is prime beneficiary of higher NGV and LPG prices. Currently, the
demand for NGV is 8,787 tonnes per day or 8.8m kg per day, equivalent to
3.2m tones p.a. Of this, only 19% of total consumption is for taxis and public
buses, the two key segments that are likely to be subsidised given the impact on
the general public. PTT currently subsidises an additional THB1/kg for these
two segments, bringing the NGV price for these two segments down to
THB9.5/kg.
PTT incurred losses of THB19bn from NGV subsidies in 2013 due to its low,
capped price of THB10.5/kg vs. its actual cost of THB16/kg, based on 9.5m kg
demand per day. The loss of THB5.2/kg for NGV comes from PTTs high cost
structure THB11/kg for the gas cost, THB3.7/kg for other operating costs
including SG&A and depreciation, as well as transportation cost of THB1.5/kg
for delivery from the 20 mother stations at the pipeline to the 356 daughter
stations. Hence, we estimate that the NGV loss could swell to THB16.7bn in
2014 or 16% of its 2014 net profit if this NGV price cap continues.
We estimate that every THB1/kg increase in NGV and LPG prices would result
in an upside of 2.4% and 0.7%, respectively, to our 2015 net profit forecast of
THB110bn for PTT. In terms of valuation upside, every THB1/kg price increase
in NGV and LPG would result in an upside of 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively, to
PTTs SOP target price of THB400.
Quantity (mtpa)
3.3
Quantity (mtpa)
3.3
3.3
2014F
1.0
219
105,720
101,193
0.2%
0.1%
2,856
0.077
0.61
0.2%
400
353
Price (US$/tonne)
313
THB/kg
10.0
1.0
10%
2015F
12
2,628
110,730
107,367
2.4%
0.8%
2,856
0.920
month
THB m
THB m
THB m
mn shares
THB/shr
7.36 THB/shr
1.8%
400 THB/shr
353 THB/shr
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
29
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Quantity (mtpa)
2.7
0.7
2.0
Quantity (mtpa)
2.0
na
2.0
2014F
1.0
133
105,720
101,193
0.1%
0.1%
2,856
0.047
Price (US$/tonne
406
616
333
THB/kg
10.7
28.0
1.0
9%
2015F
12
1,600
110,730
107,367
0.7%
0.8%
2,856
0.560
0.37
0.1%
400
353
month
THB m
THB m
THB m
mn shares
THB/shr
4.48 THB/shr
1.1%
400 THB/shr
353 THB/shr
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
14%
900,000
12%
800,000
10%
700,000
600,000
8%
500,000
6%
400,000
300,000
4%
200,000
2%
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
100,000
Foreign investors
0%
% of total
30
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
6,000
3.5
5,000
4,000
2.5
3,000
2,000
1.5
1,000
(1,000)
(2,000)
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
0.5
Outright
SET Index
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
30
May-09
31
200
Sep-08
400
Jan-08
32
May-08
600
Sep-07
33
Jan-07
34
800
May-07
1,000
Sep-06
35
Jan-06
36
1,200
May-06
1,400
Sep-05
37
Jan-05
38
1,600
May-05
1,800
31
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
SET Index
60000
1800
1600
40000
1400
20000
1200
0
1000
800
-20000
600
-40000
400
-60000
200
Foreign Investors(LHS)
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
-80000
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
0%
BANK
30.9%
ENERG 13.6%
PROF
13.6%
ICT
13.6%
PERSON 13.6%
OTHER 13.6%
SET Index
40000
1800
1600
30000
1400
20000
1200
10000
1000
800
600
-10000
400
-20000
200
Local Institutes(LHS)
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Jan-10
0
Mar-10
-30000
32
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
SET
60000
1800
50000
1600
SET
Title:
Source:
15000
1800
1600
10000
40000
1400
1400
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your rep
30000
1200
20000
5000
1200
1000
10000
1000
0
800
-10000
800
600
-5000
600
-20000
400
-30000
400
-10000
Local Investors(LHS)
200
-15000
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
200
-50000
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
-40000
ProprietaryTrading(LHS)
2014
Local Institutes
10%
Foreign Investors
22%
Local Investors
59%
Local Institutes
ProprietaryTrading
9%
ProprietaryTrading
Foreign Investors
Local Investors
Selling pressure from local institutions could come from the redemptions of
Long-term Equity Fund (LTF) and Retirement Mutual Fund (RMF). Thais can
reduce their taxable income if they invest in LTF and RMF, up to 15% of their
taxable income or a maximum of THB0.5m for each fund. For LTF funds,
investors can redeem their investment after holding these funds for five
calendar years. And the investment must be in equity. We estimate that there
are normally inflows of about THB25bn into LTF funds annually.
For RMF, the amount that a person can invest to enjoy tax deductions is
calculated after taking into account the amount he/she invests in a provident
fund. Unlike LTF funds, RMF funds can be invested in equity or fixed income,
but they can only be redeemed after the investor reaches the age of 55. We
calculate that there are inflows of about THB10bn into RMF funds annually,
one quarter of which is likely to be invested in equity, with the remaining in
fixed income.
The strong market rally in 2014 could lead to big redemptions by LTF holders
in Jan 15, similar to what happened in 2012 and 2013 when the SET index rose
36% in 2012. Although the market was flat in 2011, it jumped 12% in 4Q11
33
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
which led to big redemptions of LTF funds in Jan 12, in our opinion. We believe
that this could trigger negative sentiments in the market. And once the market
sentiment turns sour, we believe that it is more difficult to turn it around as the
junta government's performance so far has not been very impressive, especially
on the economic front. Therefore, we would not rush into the market at this
point in time.
25,000
1600
20,000
1400
15,000
1200
10,000
1000
5,000
800
-
600
-5,000
400
-10,000
-15,000
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-09
Big redemption
200
SET index
1800
12,000
1600
10,000
1400
8,000
1200
6,000
1000
4,000
800
2,000
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
-2,000
May-05
600
400
-4,000
200
-6,000
0
RMF flows (THB m)
SET Index
34
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
CY2012
CY2013
CY2014
CY2015
CY2016
15.2x
15.1x
11%
17%
2.4x
3.2%
9.0x
47.7x
49.4x
35.2%
17.1%
1,392
13.5x
13.5x
5%
2%
2.1x
3.6%
8.8x
32.3x
115.0x
38.2%
15.7%
1,299
16.1x
16.1x
3%
6%
2.4x
3.0%
9.8x
34.6x
20.8x
33.0%
15.5%
1,594
1.03
13.6x
13.6x
19%
20%
2.2x
3.5%
8.5x
19.4x
14.6x
27.1%
16.8%
1,594
1.05
12.1x
12.1x
12%
12%
2.0x
3.9%
7.8x
13.4x
10.2x
20.5%
17.1%
1,594
1.04
+2SD : 17.0
16.0
+1SD : 14.5
14.0
Mean : 12.1
12.0
-1SD : 9.6
10.0
-2SD : 7.2
8.0
6.0
4.0
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
35
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
2013
2014
2015
2016
2013
2014
2015
2016
SET
16.6x
16.2x
13.6x
12.1x
SET
4.8%
2.5%
19.1%
12.3%
KLCI
17.5x
17.4x
16.1x
14.7x
KLCI
-2.8%
0.7%
8.1%
9.5%
FSSTI
15.4x
14.4x
13.5x
12.4x
FSSTI
-2.4%
6.8%
6.4%
9.2%
JCI
18.3x
17.4x
15.3x
13.5x
JCI
4.9%
4.9%
14.1%
13.5%
2014
2015
2016
2013
2014
2015
2016
SET
2.6x
2.4x
2.2x
2.0x
SET
15.7%
15.5%
16.8%
17.1%
KLCI
2.3x
2.2x
2.1x
2.0x
KLCI
13.3%
13.0%
13.6%
14.2%
FSSTI
1.5x
1.3x
1.3x
1.2x
FSSTI
9.5%
9.4%
9.6%
10.0%
JCI
3.4x
3.1x
2.8x
2.4x
JCI
17.9%
19.0%
19.2%
19.2%
20%
18.0
10%
16.0
0%
14.0
12.0
-10%
10.0
-20%
8.0
6.0
-30%
4.0
-40%
1-Jun-14
1-Nov-14
1-Jan-14
1-Aug-13
1-Oct-12
-50%
1-Mar-13
1-May-12
1-Jul-11
1-Dec-11
1-Feb-11
1-Apr-10
1-Sep-10
1-Jun-09
1-Nov-09
1-Jan-09
1-Aug-08
1-Oct-07
1-Mar-08
1-May-07
1-Jul-06
1-Dec-06
1-Feb-06
1-Apr-05
1-Sep-05
1-Jun-04
1-Nov-04
1-Jan-04
1-Aug-03
1-Oct-02
1-Dec-01
1-May-02
1-Mar-03
2.0
36
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
31-Dec
31-Jan
28-Feb
31-Mar
30-Apr
CIMBKP
31-May
30-Jun
SET
31-Jul
31-Aug
30-Sep
31-Oct
SET50
We prefer sectors that are less exposed to domestic demand (hotels) as well as
defensive counters (healthcare, utilities and alternative energy). Our top picks
are AOT, BGH, GUNKUL, KCE, MINT, RATCH and THCOM.
However, as some of them may have spiked up significantly of late such as AOT
and GUNKUL, we would prefer to wait and buy on any share price weakness in
a market correction.
We are massively Underweight on the retail, telco and media sectors as we
believe that retail and media will be affected directly by weak domestic demand
on the back of higher retail energy prices, introduction of a new inheritance tax,
potentially higher VAT and weak farm prices.
For telcos, we are less confident that the 1800 MHz licences will be auctioned
off in Jul 15, as it seems that the military government would like to take the
authority to issue the licences back from the National Broadcasting and
Telecommunications Commission (NBTC). Therefore, this could mean further
delays for the auctions. The NBTC's intention to proceed with the spectrum
auctions are not aligned with the military government's digital economy policy,
implying that there are uncertainties regarding the spectrum auction. Note that
the visibility of the spectrum auction is the key swing factor in determining the
mobile operators' share prices in 2015. Meanwhile, we think that there is a
brighter earnings outlook for the non-mobile space, including satellite and fixed
broadband. For the satellite space, the key positive factor is the still tight supply
that is fuelled by rising demand for TV broadcasting channels, especially those
of high-definition (HD) quality. Fixed broadband demand will remain strong in
FY15 on the back of asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) to fibre-to-the-x
(FTTx) service upgrades and greater ADSL penetration in untapped provincial
areas.
37
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Rec. Weighting
Hotel
1.3%
2.5%
124
OW
Healthcare
3.0%
4.0%
98
OW
Utilities
1.7%
2.6%
92
OW
Petrochem
6.4%
7.2%
78
OW
Alternative Energy
0.9%
1.5%
60
OW
Technology
0.9%
1.4%
54
OW
Transportation
4.2%
4.5%
34
OW
Property
4.4%
4.8%
33
OW
Mining
0.5%
0.8%
27
OW
Construction
0.9%
1.0%
14
Food
0.6%
0.7%
Auto
0.2%
0.2%
(1)
UW
Construction Materials
OW/UW (ppt)
OW/UW
0.1%
0.0%
(12)
UW
12.2%
12.0%
(22)
UW
0.3%
0.0%
(29)
UW
17.1%
16.3%
(78)
UW
1.4%
0.2%
(109)
UW
10.9%
9.5%
(142)
UW
Retail
4.8%
2.6%
(227)
UW
Total
71.7%
71.7%
Most major airlines that use Thailand as their base still have ambitious fleet
expansion plans.
The anticipated rebound in tourist arrivals in 2015 should catalyse its share
price.
Figure 73: Airport of Thailands (AOT) financial summary
Dec-12A
Dec-13A
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
Revenue (THB m)
30,405
36,810
38,001
43,833
49,026
15,325
19,839
20,917
25,139
28,718
50.4%
53.9%
55.0%
57.4%
58.6%
6,500
16,347
12,071
15,215
17,374
4.57
7.98
8.45
10.65
12.16
80.7%
74.6%
5.8%
26.0%
14.2%
22.86
60.80
34.82
32.90
26.10
DPS (THB)
1.80
4.60
3.30
4.20
4.80
Dividend yield
0.6%
1.7%
1.2%
1.5%
1.7%
27.54
20.15
19.23
16.72
15.00
67.0
61.2
161.0
(29.4)
(90.4)
31.9%
2.7%
5.0%
21.4%
28.1%
8.7%
13.5%
12.8%
14.9%
15.3%
0%
0%
1.01
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE
Net gearing
Recurring ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
1.00
38
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
BGHs strong network expansion strategy and good execution track record
will support its long-term earnings growth.
BGHs valuation is more attractive than its smaller peers. Our target price is
THB23.8, still based on 34x forward P/E (1.5 s.d. above the 5-year
historical mean).
Figure 74: Bangkok Dusit Medical's (BGH) financial summary
Dec-12A
Dec-13A
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
Revenue (THB m)
45,478
50,615
56,922
64,580
73,072
10,221
10,334
11,748
13,403
15,290
22.5%
20.4%
20.6%
20.8%
20.9%
7,849
6,261
7,732
9,184
10,768
0.41
0.40
0.50
0.59
0.70
38.2%
-1.5%
23.3%
18.7%
17.2%
26.61
44.99
45.69
37.04
31.20
DPS (THB)
0.18
0.20
0.20
0.25
0.30
Dividend yield
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
1.6%
EV/EBITDA (x)
29.76
29.72
26.36
23.21
20.41
P/FCFE
121.0
107.0
91.0
77.7
58.1
Net gearing
41.8%
43.7%
44.3%
42.6%
39.8%
Recurring ROE
17.6%
16.2%
18.0%
19.2%
20.1%
0%
0%
0%
1.06
1.05
1.06
Gunkul has recurring income from two large 60mw wind farm projects in
2015-16 for both engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) and
operations. This will account for an estimated 80% of its earnings by 2017.
The company also has ongoing Myanmar power projects and is one of the
first Thai firms to successfully secure projects in Myanmar. This should
provide earnings growth potential.
Gunkul does not face downside risks from dilution, thanks to its clean
balance sheet. We raised our target price from THB29.5 to THB32 as we
rollover our valuation to 2016.
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
4,306
Dec-13A
2,025
3,121
4,653
5,212
746
131
508
800
1,366
17.3%
6.5%
16.3%
17.2%
26.2%
780
883
602
729
979
1.09
0.43
0.78
0.82
1.10
383.9%
-60.4%
79.9%
5.4%
34.3%
27.49
69.48
38.63
36.64
27.28
DPS (THB)
0.07
0.05
0.08
0.16
0.28
Dividend yield
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.9%
30.66
155.97
38.56
29.04
19.43
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE
7,606.9
(32.6)
5.2
(12.4)
(32.3)
Net gearing
129.2%
12.6%
-11.3%
72.9%
127.4%
28.9%
9.8%
18.5%
18.4%
20.9%
0%
0%
1.20
1.00
Recurring ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
0.74
39
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
There is strong demand for automotive printed circuit boards (PCB), driven
by the rising trend of the adoption of more electronics in cars to increase
efficiency by reducing fuel consumption, pollution and weight.
KCEs new factory in Lad Krabang will start operations in 1Q15. The plant is
equipped with new machines that could reduce the cost of PCB production
in the long term.
KCE has exceptional gross margins compared to the other PCB makers. The
company plans to expand its current market share of 6% via cost
competitiveness.
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
6,478
Dec-13A
9,294
11,036
13,051
14,477
658
1,681
2,351
2,785
3,336
10.2%
18.1%
21.3%
21.3%
23.0%
2,587
643
1,173
1,780
2,090
1.38
2.49
3.43
3.75
4.64
378.3%
80.2%
37.9%
9.2%
23.8%
8.41
28.25
15.68
11.37
10.41
DPS (THB)
0.55
0.75
0.85
1.00
1.10
Dividend yield
1.4%
1.9%
2.2%
2.6%
2.8%
40.22
15.33
11.06
9.09
7.24
27.2
(129.7)
17.7
51.3
15.3
166.3%
108.2%
77.2%
52.0%
28.6%
23.3%
33.1%
35.7%
31.5%
30.8%
0%
0%
0%
1.10
1.03
1.08
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE
Net gearing
Recurring ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
The aggressive expansion of the food and hotel businesses will allow
MINTs bottomline to increase by more than 20% p.a. over the next few
years.
40
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Dec-12A
Dec-13A
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
26,220
31,310
34,678
39,243
47,239
54,320
4,089
5,406
6,090
6,519
8,132
9,667
15.6%
17.3%
17.6%
16.6%
17.2%
17.8%
7,021
Revenue (THB m)
2,880
3,243
4,101
4,524
5,753
0.56
0.93
1.07
1.13
1.44
1.75
46.5%
66.8%
14.5%
6.0%
27.2%
22.0%
20.38
63.99
38.37
33.51
31.62
24.86
DPS (THB)
0.15
0.28
0.34
0.37
0.47
0.58
Dividend yield
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.3%
1.6%
EV/EBITDA (x)
37.87
29.17
25.04
23.37
18.61
15.51
P/FCFE
204.1
82.5
(44.5)
106.9
82.7
64.6
109.2%
95.0%
60.3%
54.5%
46.3%
38.2%
13.4%
20.1%
19.1%
17.0%
19.1%
20.5%
0%
0%
0%
1.01
1.04
1.10
Net gearing
Recurring ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
We project solid core net profit growth of over 20% in FY14-16 for RATCH,
driven by the additional capacity of 750MW (13%) for its 40% stake in the
Hongsa coal-fired power plant in FY15-16.
Its valuation remains attractive, at 11x CY15 P/E and 9x CY16 P/E,
compared to its peers 13x CY15 P/E.
Dec-13A
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
Revenue (THB m)
55,591
50,850
56,382
55,681
55,387
10,302
9,484
11,320
10,655
11,285
18.5%
18.7%
20.1%
19.1%
20.4%
7,726
6,187
6,780
7,369
9,436
3.68
3.50
4.68
5.08
6.51
9.8%
-5.1%
33.7%
8.7%
28.0%
9.49
16.76
17.66
13.21
12.15
DPS (THB)
2.27
2.27
2.27
2.40
2.80
Dividend yield
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.9%
4.5%
10.50
10.91
8.55
8.44
7.24
50.1
(77.6)
9.1
8.9
7.5
Net gearing
33.3%
23.5%
10.5%
-1.1%
-13.2%
Recurring ROE
10.6%
9.4%
12.0%
12.2%
14.5%
0%
0%
0%
0.99
1.07
1.23
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
7,266
3,892
53.6%
174
0.40
NA
94.78
0.40
1.06%
11.78
NA
34.4%
3.1%
Dec-13A
7,896
3,750
47.5%
1,128
1.14
186%
33.18
0.45
1.19%
12.04
NA
31.5%
8.4%
Dec-14F
9,769
5,198
53.2%
1,723
1.70
49%
22.24
0.85
2.25%
7.93
NA
7.0%
11.5%
(0.000%)
0.97
Dec-15F
10,832
5,813
53.7%
2,524
2.30
36%
16.39
1.73
4.58%
6.39
10.39
(14.6%)
14.3%
0.000%
1.11
Dec-16F
11,287
5,916
52.4%
2,666
2.43
6%
15.52
1.82
4.83%
5.72
9.93
(30.1%)
14.1%
0.000%
1.03
42
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Sector Briefs
43
Financial ServicesBanks
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
CIMB Analyst(s)
BANKS
Back to basics
The Thai banking sector has passed its peak growth stage and is now
rebalancing in the face of macro headwinds. The positives include
decent balance sheets and conservative credit costs. The sector's
outperformance will not continue given the lack of new solid drivers.
Weerapat WONK-URAI
T (66) 2 657 9224
E weerapat.wo@cimb.com
15.0%
10.4%
Show Style "View Doc Map"
8.3%
10.0%
3.8%
5.0%
Highlighted Companies
Kasikornbank
It is our top pick given its outstanding growth and
strong balance sheet. Its risk-reward trade-off is
convincing, coupled with its high ROEs. Its rich
valuation is justified by its stronger-than-peer
performance.
Krung Thai Bank
Its valuation discount to its peers should diminish
given that KTB has bolstered its LLR cushion and
capital base. Significant catalysts could emerge from
a successful transformation programme to boost fee
income.
0.0%
2014F2015F
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
GDP growth
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
BanksThailand
December 12, 2014
Bloomberg
Ticker
DBS SP
OCBC SP
UOB SP
Recom.
Add
Add
Hold
Market Cap
(US$ m)
37,696
31,664
30,113
3-year EPS
CAGR (%)
6.9%
9.6%
7.3%
10.3%
P/BV (x)
CY2014 CY2015
1.34
1.27
1.35
1.25
1.49
1.37
1.39
1.29
P/PPOPS (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
CY2014 CY2015 CY2014 CY2015
9.2
8.6
3.0%
3.3%
7.6
7.9
3.4%
3.5%
9.1
8.6
3.5%
3.7%
8.6
8.3
3.3%
3.5%
1288 HK
3988 HK
3328 HK
998 HK
939 HK
3968 HK
1988 HK
1398 HK
Add
Add
Add
Hold
Add
Reduce
Reduce
Add
3.75
4.16
6.81
5.88
6.11
16.92
9.24
5.36
4.96
5.03
7.41
4.93
9.43
11.38
6.17
7.55
162,470
152,414
67,366
44,816
198,261
57,184
46,185
244,324
5.1
5.5
6.4
5.7
5.1
6.0
5.0
5.3
5.4
4.4
4.6
6.6
4.6
4.4
5.1
5.0
4.8
4.7
15.9%
15.2%
5.6%
9.6%
13.7%
9.8%
5.5%
9.3%
12.5%
0.99
0.89
0.87
0.87
0.99
1.10
0.98
1.03
0.97
0.86
0.79
0.79
0.76
0.86
0.94
0.83
0.90
0.85
21.2%
17.4%
14.3%
16.2%
20.8%
19.3%
20.5%
20.7%
19.4%
21.1%
18.2%
12.4%
17.5%
20.7%
19.1%
18.2%
19.8%
19.2%
21.1%
19.0%
13.5%
16.8%
20.6%
19.0%
18.1%
19.2%
19.2%
3.2
3.3
3.9
3.0
3.4
3.2
2.9
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.9
3.6
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.0
6.8%
6.4%
4.1%
4.4%
6.8%
3.2%
1.8%
6.6%
6.0%
7.9%
7.6%
3.9%
5.4%
7.9%
3.8%
2.0%
7.3%
6.8%
Bank Bukopin
Bank Central Asia
Bank Danamon
Bank Mandiri
Bank Negara Indonesia
Bank Panin
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Bank Tabungan Negara
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan
Indonesia average
BBKP IJ
BBCA IJ
BDMN IJ
BMRI IJ
BBNI IJ
PNBN IJ
BBRI IJ
BBTN IJ
BTPN IJ
Outperform
Hold
Reduce
Add
Add
Hold
Add
Add
Add
760.0
13,300
4,500
10,775
6,025
1,145
11,550
1,170
4,170
1,300
13,950
3,675
11,750
6,800
1,220
13,000
1,300
4,625
560
26,577
3,496
20,377
9,107
2,235
23,094
1,002
1,974
4.9
20.1
15.6
13.8
11.2
10.7
13.1
12.0
12.1
14.3
3.9
17.1
14.0
12.2
10.1
9.9
11.3
10.0
10.4
12.5
na
11.6%
-8.2%
6.1%
7.8%
8.8%
9.4%
-6.7%
4.9%
4.2%
0.91
4.22
1.30
2.44
2.04
1.30
2.97
1.02
2.04
2.60
0.77
3.50
1.22
2.11
1.77
1.15
2.46
0.95
1.70
2.23
19.9%
23.1%
8.6%
19.0%
19.5%
12.5%
25.0%
8.4%
18.1%
19.6%
21.4%
22.3%
9.0%
18.5%
18.7%
12.4%
23.9%
9.8%
17.7%
19.3%
na
21.8%
9.7%
18.2%
18.3%
12.9%
23.6%
10.8%
17.4%
16.6%
3.3
14.2
5.7
8.0
6.6
6.2
8.0
6.0
7.0
8.6
2.6
12.8
5.3
7.0
6.0
5.7
7.0
5.0
6.2
7.6
5.0%
0.9%
2.4%
2.2%
2.4%
0.0%
2.2%
3.8%
0.0%
1.8%
6.1%
1.1%
2.0%
2.3%
2.7%
0.0%
2.4%
2.5%
0.0%
1.9%
AHB MK
AFG MK
AMM MK
BIMB MK
HLBK MK
MAY MK
PBK MK
RHBC MK
Reduce
Hold
Hold
Hold
Reduce
Add
Reduce
Add
3.15
4.75
6.45
4.22
14.30
8.90
18.32
7.60
2.87
4.98
6.70
4.50
13.20
12.50
17.60
11.60
1,758
2,113
5,585
1,811
7,390
23,828
20,324
5,617
10.2
11.9
11.2
10.6
12.0
12.2
15.4
9.5
12.4
9.9
10.6
10.6
11.7
11.0
11.3
14.3
8.4
11.5
-9.7%
8.7%
2.9%
15.6%
8.0%
0.4%
4.1%
10.3%
5.9%
0.91
1.64
1.40
1.44
1.76
1.56
2.61
1.08
1.67
0.87
1.53
1.30
1.34
1.59
1.42
2.78
0.98
1.58
8.2%
14.6%
13.1%
14.5%
15.5%
13.8%
18.7%
11.6%
14.3%
9.0%
15.0%
12.8%
11.9%
15.4%
13.1%
18.8%
12.3%
14.1%
9.1%
15.3%
13.1%
11.9%
14.9%
13.0%
19.9%
12.3%
14.2%
7.3
9.1
7.6
6.2
10.9
8.2
10.9
5.9
8.7
7.0
8.1
7.1
6.8
9.6
7.8
10.1
5.4
8.1
4.8%
5.5%
4.0%
3.5%
2.9%
5.7%
2.8%
3.0%
4.1%
4.8%
5.7%
4.1%
3.9%
3.0%
6.2%
3.1%
3.4%
4.4%
BPI PM
MBT PM
PBB PM
Reduce
Hold
Add
93.50
82.55
18.70
75.00
86.00
27.00
8,226
5,074
180
19.3
17.0
13.5
18.2
18.7
13.5
9.3
16.1
-0.1%
7.7%
-1.0%
7.0%
2.61
1.52
1.08
2.02
2.40
1.38
1.00
1.85
14.9%
9.4%
8.6%
11.9%
13.4%
10.7%
11.1%
12.0%
13.7%
11.0%
14.7%
12.4%
13.5
9.4
8.5
11.4
13.2
7.8
6.2
10.3
1.9%
0.9%
1.9%
1.5%
1.9%
0.9%
2.7%
1.6%
BBL TB
BAY TB
KBANK TB
KKP TB
KTB TB
SCB TB
TCAP TB
TISCO TB
TMB TB
Hold
Reduce
Add
Add
Add
Hold
Hold
Add
Reduce
199.5
45.25
242.0
40.25
23.60
190.0
33.00
44.25
3.08
203.0
30.00
274.0
55.00
28.00
203.0
37.00
53.00
2.50
11,600
8,372
17,641
1,033
10,047
19,644
1,213
1,079
4,098
10.7
19.3
12.5
11.4
9.7
11.9
7.8
8.5
15.7
10.2
6.3
10.0
17.5
11.4
8.1
8.8
11.3
7.2
7.5
14.5
9.2
5.6
2.7%
17.4%
8.2%
1.1%
2.2%
4.4%
-3.2%
4.9%
21.4%
14.8%
9.1%
1.20
2.11
2.31
0.93
1.45
2.32
0.78
1.39
1.99
1.60
1.10
1.11
1.74
2.00
0.88
1.32
2.06
0.72
1.25
1.83
1.42
0.97
11.6%
11.2%
19.8%
8.3%
15.9%
20.6%
10.3%
17.1%
13.2%
16.9%
18.7%
11.5%
11.8%
18.9%
11.2%
15.8%
19.3%
10.4%
17.5%
13.2%
16.3%
18.4%
11.8%
12.1%
18.1%
12.3%
16.1%
18.6%
10.7%
18.2%
14.3%
16.7%
15.2%
6.9
8.0
7.6
5.8
5.9
8.1
2.0
3.5
9.6
5.7
4.0
6.7
8.2
6.8
4.5
5.5
7.6
1.9
3.4
8.2
5.5
3.5
3.7%
1.8%
1.6%
4.3%
4.1%
3.0%
3.6%
4.5%
2.2%
3.5%
5.2%
4.0%
2.0%
1.8%
6.2%
4.5%
3.2%
3.9%
5.2%
2.4%
3.9%
5.9%
Affin Holdings
Alliance Financial Group
AMMB Holdings
BIMB Holdings
Hong Leong Bank
Malayan Banking Bhd
Public Bank Bhd
RHB Capital Bhd
Malaysia average
Bank of the Philippine Islands
Metropolitan Bank and Trust
Philippine Business Bank
Philippines average
Bangkok Bank
Bank of Ayudhya
Kasikornbank
Kiatnakin Bank
Krung Thai Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
Thanachart Capital
Tisco Financial Group
TMB Bank
Thailand average
Average (all)
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
45
THAILAND
CIMB Analyst(s
)
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY OVERALL
SECTOR BRIEF
15.00
12.00
9.00
6.00
Highlighted Companies
Robinson Department Store
Upcountry department store leader with Lifestyle
Center boosting rental income while additional
upside is sales pick-up from recovery in domestic
demand and increasing urbanisation.
CP All
Combining 7-Eleven and Makro operations, CPALL
is the largest retail operator in Thailand. Long term
growth is promising with the companys ability to
cater to the rapid changes in its customers busier
lifestyles.
Jubilee
We are positive on JUBILEs business outlook in
view of its leading position in the diamond jewelry
retail business and ability to maintain its market
share, thanks to its strong competitive advantages.
3.00
0.00
-3.00
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
-6.00
-9.00
-12.00
CPALL
ROBINS
BIGC
HMPRO
GLOBAL
On a recovery path
We believe the worst is over for Thai
retailers as the countrys political
situation
has
stabilised,
while
government spending should kick-in
next year. However, we do not expect
the same pace of recovery for all
retailers as they have different target
markets and product segments. We
choose CPALL as an early pick-up
play due to its focus in FMCG
products.
ROBINS,
meanwhile,
remains our favourite as the
upcountry recovery play for its leading
position in department stores in the
upcountry and improved earnings
quality though rising rental income.
Selective buy
We are still positive on the long-term
prospects of Thailands retail sector,
boosted by urbanisation in the
upcountry and room for modern trade
to expand as the market shifts from
traditional trade. However, with the
varying pace of recovery in the short
term, we recommend CPALL and
JUBILEE for their defensive nature
and ROBINS for a clear recovery path.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Bloomberg
Ticker
Recom.
CPALL TB
ROBINS TB
BIGC TB
GLOBAL TB
HMPRO TB
JUBILE TB
OFM TB
MC TB
BEAUTY TB
Add
Add
Reduce
SEM MK
AEON MK
DFI SP
831 HK
2912 TT
5903 TT
3382 JT
2651 JT
8028 JT
MDRN IJ
Hold
Add
Hold
Hold
Add
Hold
Hold
Price
Target Price
Market Cap
(local curr)
(local curr)
(US$ m)
CY2015
P/BV (x)
3-year EPS CAGR
(%) CY2014 CY2015
CY2015
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY2014
CY2015
CY2015
42.25
44.00
253.0
11.30
8.55
36.00
49.00
14.00
33.75
54.50
66.00
212.0
12.46
9.90
42.00
54.00
17.10
37.50
11,561
1,489
6,358
1,049
3,211
191.1
477.6
341.2
308.4
24,985
32.4
24.8
29.3
42.1
31.6
26.4
31.5
15.3
34.7
29.8
21.6
18.3
25.6
31.2
27.0
19.7
25.5
13.9
26.3
23.2
22.6%
18.7%
7.1%
15.2%
12.2%
29.4%
22.1%
6.6%
29.1%
18.1%
9.6
4.0
5.0
2.7
6.5
8.7
3.2
3.0
9.7
5.8
7.8
3.6
4.4
2.5
5.8
7.4
3.0
2.9
9.2
5.2
29.8%
16.7%
18.1%
7.1%
23.2%
35.3%
10.5%
19.9%
28.3%
21%
36.0%
20.5%
18.2%
8.4%
22.7%
40.6%
12.1%
21.0%
35.8%
24%
20.4
11.1
16.2
22.3
16.9
19.5
17.2
9.8
25.2
17.6
15.7
8.3
14.6
17.4
14.5
14.3
13.7
9.0
18.7
14.0
1.5%
2.0%
1.0%
0.7%
1.5%
2.3%
1.0%
5.2%
2.4%
2.0%
2.3%
2.7%
1.2%
1.0%
1.9%
3.0%
1.2%
5.7%
3.2%
2.5%
1.43
2.98
9.16
5.00
229.5
201.5
4,295
7,170
4,460
620.0
1.78
3.35
10.60
5.20
238.0
246.6
4,856
8,015
4,423
786.3
506.7
1,199
12,385
484.4
7,641
1,441
32,196
6,082
3,685
229.6
65,850
28.3
19.7
24.5
30.5
24.4
32.5
18.9
17.1
16.3
49.6
26.2
23.1
17.8
21.8
26.8
24.9
27.8
20.4
18.2
17.5
33.7
23.2
19.0%
1.6%
9.7%
2.3%
8.3%
22.0%
-0.4%
-1.6%
-6.3%
24.3%
7.9%
9.5
2.3
8.3
4.7
11.1
9.1
1.9
3.0
1.7
2.1
5.4
7.6
2.1
7.1
4.3
10.0
7.9
1.7
2.7
1.6
2.0
4.7
48.7%
12.3%
36.5%
15.7%
43.7%
29.8%
9.7%
17.1%
10.2%
4.6%
23%
36.8%
12.5%
35.3%
16.8%
42.4%
30.5%
8.7%
15.5%
9.2%
6.1%
21%
13.0
8.5
15.1
14.9
12.2
13.1
7.0
5.1
4.6
14.2
10.8
10.2
7.8
13.8
13.0
11.4
11.3
7.6
6.1
5.5
11.6
9.8
1.1%
1.6%
2.5%
2.0%
2.6%
2.5%
1.6%
3.1%
2.3%
0.4%
2.0%
1.7%
1.8%
3.1%
2.2%
3.5%
3.1%
1.7%
3.3%
2.4%
0.5%
2.3%
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
47
THAILAND
CONSTRUCTION
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
THB bn
265
93
57
415
Highlighted Companies
Italian-Thai Development (ITD)
A strong order backlog, the prospect of getting more
infrastructure projects and tame building material
prices suggest bright prospects for ITD. But the real
issue is its margins and earnings visibility.
CH Karnchang (CK)
Given its good connections with the military
government, we expect CK to win more
infrastructure projects than other contractors. Its
decent order backlog also alleviates concern over
the slow progress of infrastructure launches.
Sino-Thai Engineering (STEC)
STEC has a low order backlog and is looking for
smaller projects. This would mean lower margins
and higher SG&A. It is not as close to the current
government as it was with the Democrat
administration.
years of revenues
5.5
2.6
2.2
3.8
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
ConstructionThailand
December 12, 2014
Tgt
Mkt cap
Company
Ticker
BB
Rec.
(THB)
Price (local)
(US$ m)
CH. Karnchang
CK TB
Add
26.50
30.00
Italian-Thai Development
ITD TB
Reduce
6.05
STEC TB
Reduce
25.75
CY15
1,335
19.8
20.6
5.25
1,248
64.1
23.00
1,190
3-yr EPS
CAGR (%)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
-25.3%
2.4
2.2
12.6%
11.2%
20.9
21.9
1.0%
1.2%
55.9
1.1%
2.9
2.8
4.8%
5.2%
17.0
17.5
0.6%
0.6%
25.3
25.0
0.8%
4.7
4.3
19.4%
17.9%
15.3
14.6
1.9%
2.0%
36.4
33.8
-7.8%
3.3
3.1
12.3%
11.4%
17.7
18.0
1.2%
1.3%
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
49
HealthcareHospitals
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
HOSPITALS
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
200
150
Highlighted Companies
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGH)
BGH is on track to have 50 hospitals in a couple of
years time. Cost control will still be its priority in
2015. Together with new hospitals, we believe it will
post strong earnings growth over the next few years.
Bumrungrad Hospital (BH)
We believe BH will continue to deliver steady
earnings growth over the next few years on the back
of rising medical tourism. Its Petchburi campus will
not be up and running in the next few years.
Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH)
Its World Medical Centre is likely to show steady
improvement, which should more than offset startup
loss from new Karunvej hospital. BCH is expected to
post decent earnings growth over the next few years.
100
50
0
2002
2003
2004
Thailand
2005
2006
2007
Cambodia
2008
Lao
2009
Myanmar
2010
2011
2012
Vietnam
SOURCES: WHO
Big is beautiful
BGH is expanding aggressively and is
on track to raise its network from 37
hospitals currently to 50 hospitals in
the next couple of years. There will,
therefore, be more greenfield and
brownfield hospitals in the near term.
Even though BGH is already the
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
HospitalsThailand
December 12, 2014
Company
IHH Healthcare
Raffles Medical Group
KPJ Healthcare Bhd
Bangkok Chain Hospital
Bangkok Dusit Med Service
Bumrungrad Hospital
Chularat Hospital PCL
Primary Health Care
Ramsay Health Care
Sonic Healthcare
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd
Average ( Asia)
BB Ticker
IHH SP
RFMD SP
KPJ MK
BCH TB
BGH TB
BH TB
CHG TB
PRY AU
RHC AU
SHL AU
APHS IN
Recom.
Add
Add
Hold
Add
Reduce
Reduce
Add
Add
Add
Add
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
Price
Target
Price
(local
curr)
(local curr)
1.87
3.89
3.76
8.90
18.20
142.50
18.40
4.52
55.22
17.33
1,131.45
74.45
72.60
103.80
64.26
50.81
73.87
42.93
23.27
40.61
93.08
2.16
4.50
4.04
9.30
23.80
125.00
19.55
5.59
59.73
19.06
1,055
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
Market Cap
(US$ m)
3-yr EPS
CAGR
CY15
(%)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
Yield (%)
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
11,620
1,672
1,093
676
8,588
3,163
617
1,929
9,301
5,795
2,533
56.80
30.15
29.71
44.25
36.46
36.93
40.23
13.36
29.87
17.48
43.71
31.18
38.99
25.55
27.20
34.40
30.70
33.30
34.10
12.13
26.03
15.83
42.26
26.69
29.7%
15.9%
10.9%
6.2%
17.2%
10.2%
14.7%
1.8%
15.5%
9.9%
12.4%
11.3%
2.2
4.2
3.1
5.3
6.2
9.5
7.1
0.8
6.2
2.2
5.3
3.0
2.2
3.8
2.9
4.9
5.6
8.3
6.6
0.8
5.6
2.1
4.9
2.9
3.9%
14.7%
10.9%
12.3%
18.0%
27.4%
18.3%
6.9%
21.8%
12.8%
12.1%
9.9%
5.6%
15.7%
10.9%
14.9%
19.2%
26.5%
20.0%
6.9%
22.6%
13.5%
12.0%
11.1%
5.5%
16.1%
11.1%
16.0%
20.1%
26.8%
20.8%
7.1%
23.4%
14.3%
13.6%
11.8%
19.6
22.9
16.2
27.0
25.9
24.7
26.1
6.2
12.2
10.4
22.5
15.2
16.2
20.9
14.6
22.3
22.9
22.6
22.0
6.3
10.1
9.3
21.5
13.5
0.4%
1.3%
1.6%
1.4%
1.1%
1.4%
1.5%
4.6%
1.7%
3.9%
0.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1.3%
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
1.5%
1.8%
5.1%
1.9%
4.2%
0.6%
1.8%
15,999
31,477
8,771
9,288
4,994
22,971
28,955
2,130
3,674
7,013
135,271
183,033
20.79
15.40
15.35
15.84
31.37
22.01
21.56
34.89
21.94
24.19
19.22
21.50
19.34
13.0%
13.94
17.6%
13.93
3.8%
14.10
-6.0%
18.94 na
19.57
5.8%
18.45
10.2%
24.34
-5.7%
19.35
-5.6%
20.07
5.5%
16.89
11.2%
18.78
13.9%
3.1
na
3.1
2.2
5.7
2.2
2.6
1.8
9.8
3.8
4.2
3.8
2.8
na
3.0
2.1
4.6
2.0
2.3
1.5
8.0
2.6
3.5
3.3
15.9%
-28.6%
21.7%
14.2%
19.5%
10.4%
12.5%
5.6%
42.3%
14.1%
23.8%
18.8%
15.2%
-45.0%
21.8%
15.0%
27.1%
10.8%
13.4%
6.7%
45.3%
15.5%
22.7%
18.9%
15.3%
-98.7%
na
15.3%
27.9%
11.2%
14.0%
6.4%
45.4%
14.1%
21.5%
18.4%
9.9
8.3
9.5
9.1
8.5
11.0
10.6
11.2
12.1
15.2
9.7
10.4
9.4
7.6
8.4
8.5
7.5
10.0
9.3
9.9
10.9
13.4
8.8
9.4
na
na
na
2.1%
na
1.3%
1.0%
1.2%
4.6%
1.3%
0.8%
1.0%
na
na
na
2.1%
na
1.5%
1.1%
1.5%
3.8%
1.3%
0.8%
1.1%
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
51
THAILAND
HOTELS
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
Emergency decree
2,600,000
Show Style "View Doc Map"
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
1,800,000
Highlighted Companies
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
Coup
1,000,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2011
May
Jun
2012
Jul
2013
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
Enhancing margins
Thai hoteliers have learnt from past
political crises that cutting prices will
not help boost occupancy rate during
the crisis. Therefore, they did not do
that in the recent one.
They maintained or even raised their
room rates but handed out discounts
in the form of free nights following a
couple of nights stay, free breakfast,
free wifi, etc. We believe that once
tourist arrivals show signs of a solid
turnaround, they would no longer
hand out these freebies, thereby,
improving their margins.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
HotelsThailand
December 12, 2014
Bloomberg
Ticker
Recom.
MINT TB
CENTEL TB
ERW TB
Add
ADD
Not Rated
(local curr)
42.00
38.50
n.a.
Market Cap
(US$ m)
4,479
1,439
376
CY2015
25.6
26.6
43.1
31.8
3-year EPS
CAGR (%)
17.0%
15.0%
43.0%
25.0%
P/BV (x)
CY2014
5.23
4.36
2.57
4.05
CY2015
4.60
3.93
2.47
3.67
CY2015
19.1%
15.5%
5.6%
13.4%
CY2016
20.5%
16.9%
8.4%
15.3%
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY2014
24.0
16.6
21.3
20.6
CY2015
19.1
13.5
12.6
15.1
CY2015
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
1.1%
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
53
MediaMedia - overall
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
MEDIA - OVERALL
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
Be more selective
We are Neutral on the sector and do not have a top pick in the sector as
we see a lack of near-term re-rating catalysts (for FTA-TV and outdoor
media) and demanding valuations (for cinema). From a business
perspective, we prefer cinema due to healthy competition, but dislike
FTA TV due to the intensifying price competition from new players.
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 6579226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Highlighted Companies
BEC World
BEC is the second-largest FTA-TV operator by ad
revenue, which will operate under a concession from
MCOT until 2020. BEC won three digital terrestrial
TV channel licences from the auction in 2013.
Major Cineplex Group
Major is the largest cinema operator in Thailand
according to the number of screens and cinema
revenue. It currently has 480 screens, 60% of which
are in Bangkok, and the rest are in provinces.
MCOT
MCOT is the third-largest FTA-TV operator by ad
revenue and is 60% owned by the Ministry of
Finance. It recently won two digital terrestrial TV
channel licences from the auction in 2013.
0.0
BBTV
BEC
MCOT
WORK
RATV
Aug
RS
TPBS
TRUE
MONO
NBT
Sep
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Media - overallThailand
December 12, 2014
Bloomberg
Price
Target
Market Cap
Price
(local curr) (local curr) (US$ m)
Recom.
Ticker
CY15
CY16
2-year EPS
CAGR (%)
P/BV (x)
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
CY16
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY14
CY15
Dividend Yield
(%)
CY14
CY15
Indonesia
Media Nusantara Citra
Surya Citra Media
Indonesia average
MNCN IJ
SCMA IJ
Add
Add
2,315
3,280
3,500
4,000
2,676
3,883
6,559
16.8
33.0
23.7
14.4
27.6
20.1
12.4
22.5
16.9
3.8%
6.0%
6.0%
3.8
14.6
6.8
3.3
11.9
5.8
2.9
9.7
4.9
24.3%
48.6%
30.9%
24.7%
47.5%
31.2%
24.9%
47.7%
31.6%
10.1
22.6
15.2
8.6
19.1
12.8
2.6%
1.9%
2.2%
3.0%
2.1%
2.5%
MPR MK
MCIL MK
Outperform
Hold
1.89
0.79
2.10
0.82
607.9
379.6
987.5
13.1
9.8
11.6
11.5
9.9
10.8
10.2
9.5
9.9
-11.9%
-13.7%
-12.7%
1.3
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.3
9.6%
18.9%
12.4%
10.7%
16.8%
12.6%
11.7%
16.2%
13.2%
5.1
5.6
5.3
4.7
5.5
5.0
5.9%
4.7%
5.4%
6.7%
5.2%
6.1%
MAJOR TB
BEC TB
MCOT TB
VGI TB
Hold
Hold
Hold
Reduce
26.00
53.25
17.40
12.50
24.38
52.00
20.00
11.00
705.0
3,246
364.4
1,307
6,361
21.5
22.2
19.2
37.3
25.6
18.1
19.1
14.6
34.1
22.4
15.0
20.1
14.7
28.4
22.2
12.1%
-0.3%
-29.4%
5.2%
-4.5%
3.9
11.4
1.6
21.5
7.4
3.7
10.6
1.5
19.5
7.0
3.6
10.0
1.5
16.9
6.6
17.9%
52.8%
8.1%
58.6%
29.2%
21.0%
57.5%
10.5%
60.0%
32.1%
24.5%
51.2%
10.3%
63.9%
31.7%
13.5
11.6
7.0
26.1
12.9
12.4
10.4
6.1
23.9
11.9
4.4%
4.8%
4.4%
2.5%
3.8%
5.2%
5.5%
5.8%
2.7%
4.4%
Reduce
4.19
4.03
5,104
5,104
20.5
20.5
24.2
24.2
23.3
23.3
-16.9%
-16.9%
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
9.0%
9.0%
7.7%
7.7%
8.2%
8.2%
16.8
16.8
16.8
16.8
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
19,012
22.1
20.9
19.2
-8.4%
3.5
3.4
3.3
16.4%
16.6%
17.6%
13.6
12.5
3.7%
4.0%
Malaysia
Media Prima Bhd
Media Chinese Int'l
Malaysia average
Thailand
Major Cineplex Group
BEC World
MCOT
VGI Global Media PCL
Thailand average
Singapore
Singapore Press Holdings
Singapore average
Average (all)
SPH SP
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
55
THAILAND
CIMB Analyst(s)
(US$/bbl)
18
140
16
120
14
Show Style "View Doc Map"
100
12
80
10
60
40
Murban-Dubai Spread
TOP GRM
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-07
Apr-07
20
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-06
Apr-06
Highlighted Companies
PTT
Despite the weaker earnings due to a lower oil price,
we believe that PTTs core gas earnings should be
supported by its downstream petrochemical and
refinery associates. The biggest earnings upside
could come from the pass-through benefits of the
LPG and NGV price increases in FY15.
Regulatory upside
PTT is the only company in the sector
that should benefit from Thailands
ongoing energy reform. This upside
could come in the form of lower
subsidy loss for NGV that caused a
large loss of THB18bn in FY13. We
expect PTT to see up to THB15bn
earnings upside from this reduced
loss from the NGV price increase from
THB10.5/kg to THB16/kg, which is
PTTs NGV cost, by end-FY15.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Bloomberg
Ticker
Recom.
Price
Target Price
Market Cap
(local curr)
(local curr)
(US$ m)
CY15
CY16
P/BV (x)
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
CY16
EV/EBITDA
CY14(x)CY15
Dividend
Yield CY15
(%)
CY14
Asia
Thailand
PTT Global Chemical
Thai Oil
Bangchak Petroleum PCL/The
IRPC PCL
Esso Thailand PCL
Thailand average
PTTGC TB
TOP TB
BCP TB
IRPC TB
ESSO TB
Add
Hold
55.75
44.00
33.00
3.24
4.96
70.00
48.00
37.79
3.55
5.88
7,657
2,734
1,385
2,018
523.3
14,317
7.9
69.6
11.3
813.0
na
13.7
7.0
9.4
8.7
22.0
19.9
8.6
6.1
8.6
8.1
14.1
10.2
7.4
5.7%
-10.0%
4.2%
74.6%
na
5.2%
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.9
13.0%
1.4%
11.1%
0.1%
-13.3%
7.4%
14.0%
10.4%
13.3%
3.9%
4.1%
11.2%
15.2%
10.5%
13.5%
6.0%
7.7%
12.4%
5.8
17.2
7.0
20.9
na
8.6
5.2
6.7
5.8
11.8
7.4
6.2
5.7%
0.6%
4.0%
1.9%
na
3.8%
6.5%
4.8%
4.7%
2.5%
1.5%
5.2%
BPCL IN
HPCL IN
IOCL IN
Reduce
Reduce
Reduce
669.0
574.3
345.2
500.0
330.0
320.0
7,799
3,136
13,514
24,448
15.0
12.0
8.8
10.5
13.3
10.2
7.3
8.9
na
39.8
28.2
29.9
na
-25.6%
-25.7%
-32.3%
2.1
1.3
1.1
1.3
1.9
1.2
1.0
1.2
na
4.8
3.9
4.1
14.6%
11.5%
13.3%
13.3%
15.0%
12.3%
14.4%
14.2%
na
4.8%
5.7%
5.5%
9.4
7.2
6.8
7.5
9.1
6.5
5.4
6.4
1.8%
1.5%
3.7%
2.8%
1.8%
1.7%
3.8%
2.9%
South Korea
SK Innovation
GS Holdings Corp
S-Oil Corp
South Korea average
096770 KS
078930 KS
010950 KS
Add
Add
Add
81,700
40,150
43,800
108,000
54,000
55,000
6,852
3,384
4,473
14,709
na
na
na
-91.7
7.2
7.5
8.9
7.7
6.1
6.8
7.4
6.6
22.2%
17.3%
34.1%
23.7%
0.5
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.8
0.5
-0.6%
-0.2%
-1.4%
-0.6%
6.7%
7.6%
10.3%
7.6%
7.5%
7.9%
11.3%
8.4%
13.3
7.7
21.0
13.1
6.2
4.4
6.4
5.8
3.9%
3.5%
0.7%
2.9%
3.9%
3.5%
4.4%
3.9%
Taiwan
Formosa Petrochemical
Taiwan average
6505 TT
Not Rated
67.50
72.00
20,593
20,593
23.0
23.0
19.8
19.8
na
na
na
na
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
na
na
11.6%
11.6%
12.8%
12.8%
na
na
13.0
13.0
11.7
11.7
2.6%
2.6%
3.5%
3.5%
30.74
27.81
6,910
6,910
21.3
21.3
17.6
17.6
15.1
15.1
-3.8%
-3.8%
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
14.5%
14.5%
16.1%
16.1%
17.4%
17.4%
10.8
10.8
9.4
9.4
1.5%
1.5%
2.9%
2.9%
80,977
18.3
10.4
10.2
-4.9%
1.2
1.1
1.0
6.6%
11.1%
9.3%
9.5
7.0
2.8%
3.6%
India
Bharat Petroleum
Hindustan Petroleum
Indian Oil Corp
India average
Australia
Caltex Australia Ltd
Australia average
Average (all)
CTX AU
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
57
ChemicalsPetrochemical
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
PETROCHEMICAL
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
Indorama Ventures
We like IVL as a turnaround play on the coming PTA
margin recovery on the back of the PX downcycle in
FY14 and PTA cycle recovery in FY15. Its organic
growth momentum for MEG in the US and polyester
in Indonesia should be key catalysts in FY15.
PTT Global Chemical
We like PTTGC for its key advantage of cheap gas
feedstock, which allows it to benefit when oil prices
are high, and its favourable product mix of PX and
MEG that should lead to strong margins in FY15.
HDPE-Naphtha
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
PTA-PX
Oct-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-07
Highlighted Companies
Siam Cement
We like SCC for its well-balanced earnings portfolio
of domestic cement and building materials
businesses, and its global petrochemical franchise.
SCC is set to benefit from the olefins industry
recovery, solid aromatics spread and SM upcycle.
Apr-07
Jan-07
PX-Naphtha
A mixed fortune
SCC should see rising margins for all
businesses in FY15 given the
continued industry upcycle to drive
margins for PE and PP, while its
cement earnings should recover due
to an improved cement demand
growth. IVL could see better earnings
in FY15, driven by earnings growth
from M&A and a margin recovery for
PTA in FY16. PTTGC as a gas-based
olefins producer could see a
medium-term growth outlook given
that its earnings upside from volume
growth and industry upcycle could be
offset by lower margins due to the
weak oil price.
A turnaround theme
FY15 could be a turnaround year for
all three petrochemical companies.
IVL should be the strongest
turnaround company, with earnings
growth from M&A and improved PTA
margins. SCC could see its earnings
jump on the back of improved cement
margins and rising olefin spreads.
PTTGC may see the smallest
turnaround, mainly due to the higher
gas feedstock supply, but this would
be partly offset by the weak margins
due to a lower oil price.
Time to reload
We believe that after a period of share
price consolidation and correction, it
is time to reload petrochemical stocks
ahead of their earnings growth
momentum and turnaround year.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
PetrochemicalThailand
December 12, 2014
Bloomberg
Ticker
Recom.
Price
Target Price
Market Cap
(local curr)
(local curr)
(US$ m)
CY15
CY16
P/BV (x)
CY14
CY15
CY14
CY15
CY16
Asia
Thailand
Indorama Ventures
Siam Cement
PTT Global Chemical
Vinythai PCL
Thai Plastic & Chemicals PCL
Thailand average
Malaysia
Petronas Chemical Group
Malaysia average
South Korea
Hanwha Chemical Corp
Lotte Chemical
LG Chem
Kumho Petrochemical
OCI
South Korea average
Taiwan
Formosa Plastics
Nan Ya Plastics
Formosa Chems & Fibre
Reliance Industries
Taiwan average
India
Reliance Industries Ltd
India average
Average ( Asia)
US
Dow Chemical Co/The
Eastman Chemical Co
EI du Pont de Nemours & Co
Celanese Corp
Westlake Chemical Corp
PPG Industries Inc
Alpek SAB de CV
Average (USA)
ME/Europe
Saudi Basic Industries Corp
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co
Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co
Industries Qatar QSC
BASF SE
Arkema SA
LANXESS AG
Solvay SA
Average ( ME/Europe)
Average (all)
IVL TB
SCC TB
PTTGC TB
VNT TB
TPC TB
Add
Add
Add
21.70
462.0
55.75
10.00
28.75
33.00
553.0
70.00
11.30
32.00
3,182
16,887
7,657
361.5
767.3
28,855
30.9
15.0
7.9
35.1
8.8
12.6
15.8
12.9
7.0
22.7
9.1
10.7
11.7
12.0
6.1
22.5
na
9.5
na
6.0%
5.7%
35.5%
na
8.9%
1.7
3.3
1.0
0.8
1.3
1.8
1.5
2.8
0.9
na
na
1.7
1.4
2.5
0.9
na
na
1.6
5.5%
22.3%
13.0%
2.1%
16.2%
15.0%
10.2%
23.6%
14.0%
na
na
17.0%
12.6%
22.0%
15.2%
na
na
17.4%
12.6
11.2
5.8
na
na
9.0
10.4
9.4
5.2
na
na
7.8
0.9%
2.6%
5.7%
2.9%
7.1%
3.4%
1.7%
3.0%
6.5%
1.7%
7.2%
3.9%
PCHEM MK
Add
5.25
6.50
12,066
12,066
13.3
13.3
11.3
11.3
10.7
10.7
3.9%
3.9%
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
13.9%
13.9%
14.3%
14.3%
13.9%
13.9%
7.2
7.2
6.7
6.7
3.8%
3.6%
4.4%
4.4%
Hold
Add
Add
Hold
Add
12,650
159,500
188,500
77,900
82,100
18,800
222,000
320,000
79,000
167,000
1,858
4,959
11,331
2,153
1,776
22,077
18.6
20.3
13.2
30.2
na
18.1
6.3
8.7
8.8
9.3
26.3
9.0
5.2
5.7
6.6
5.8
10.8
6.4
272.1%
51.6%
16.3%
na
na
43.9%
0.4
0.9
1.0
1.6
0.7
0.9
0.4
0.8
0.9
1.4
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.7
0.7
2.3%
4.2%
7.9%
5.2%
-2.2%
5.0%
6.9%
9.4%
11.2%
15.6%
2.7%
9.5%
8.1%
12.8%
13.4%
21.2%
6.2%
12.2%
8.0
4.9
5.1
10.7
7.5
6.1
5.9
2.8
4.4
6.6
6.4
4.7
4.0%
0.9%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
1.8%
4.0%
0.9%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
1.8%
Not Rated
Not Rated
Not Rated
Hold
68.80
63.40
66.40
67.50
81.00
68.00
92.00
985.0
14,026
16,103
12,464
20,593
63,185
17.1
19.3
13.8
0.9
7.5
14.4
16.8
14.9
0.9
7.3
na
na
na
0.8
0.8
na
na
na
4.9%
-11.2%
2.1
2.1
1.6
0.1
0.9
2.2
2.0
1.6
0.1
0.8
na
na
na
0.1
0.1
12.1%
10.6%
11.5%
12.4%
11.9%
14.9%
12.1%
10.6%
11.0%
11.6%
na
na
na
11.7%
11.7%
25.7
15.8
10.4
-1.0
5.3
22.8
14.4
11.9
-1.2
5.1
3.5%
3.1%
4.3%
14.6%
4.3%
4.9%
4.2%
4.7%
15.9%
5.3%
RIL IN
932.6
1,113
48,468
48,468
174,651
13.0
13.0
11.0
12.0
12.0
9.5
11.0
11.0
7.0
5.8%
5.8%
6.4%
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.2
0.8
10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
11.5%
11.5%
11.9%
11.4%
11.4%
12.6%
9.5
9.5
7.1
9.6
9.6
6.6
1.1%
1.1%
2.8%
1.1%
1.1%
3.2%
DOW US
EMN US
DD US
CE US
WLK US
PPG US
ALPEKA MM
46.34
75.86
71.23
60.08
58.59
220.9
19.33
55.65
93.67
71.41
67.69
87.44
228.4
25.92
54,615
11,267
64,531
9,230
7,797
30,308
2,814
180,562
15.4
10.7
17.5
10.6
10.7
21.7
17.6
15.8
14.1
9.9
15.9
10.8
10.6
19.8
13.6
14.6
11.7
9.4
14.3
10.2
9.9
18.0
12.9
12.9
-0.9%
0.9%
-2.3%
-6.3%
8.8%
-19.6%
119.7%
-3.9%
2.1
2.6
4.1
2.9
2.5
5.0
1.6
3.0
2.1
2.4
3.7
2.5
2.2
5.0
1.5
2.8
1.9
1.8
3.4
2.2
1.8
4.5
1.5
2.5
14.9%
26.2%
23.6%
30.1%
26.4%
25.6%
9.4%
20.3%
15.0%
24.9%
24.5%
25.0%
22.0%
25.2%
11.6%
20.1%
17.0%
21.7%
24.7%
22.9%
19.6%
26.3%
11.7%
20.7%
8.2
8.4
10.0
7.1
5.6
13.8
7.4
9.1
8.1
7.0
9.6
7.2
5.3
12.3
6.6
8.6
3.2%
1.8%
2.6%
1.6%
1.0%
1.2%
3.5%
2.4%
3.4%
2.0%
2.8%
1.7%
1.3%
1.2%
3.4%
2.6%
SABIC AB
KAYAN AB
YANSAB AB
IQCD QD
BAS GR
AKE FP
LXS GR
SOLB BB
81.44
11.16
44.82
182.0
71.88
54.58
37.92
111.6
135.3
14.16
75.20
197.8
78.14
60.47
46.48
121.2
65,110
4,461
6,719
30,239
82,179
4,948
4,320
11,761
209,736
9.3
41.6
9.8
15.1
13.4
16.1
18.0
16.5
12.2
9.0
17.5
8.9
13.1
12.5
12.8
15.5
13.9
11.2
8.8
14.4
8.8
12.7
11.6
10.5
11.6
11.7
10.6
3.2%
na
2.5%
2.7%
3.3%
28.5%
na
40.8%
9.4%
1.5
1.2
1.7
3.4
2.3
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.6
3.3
2.2
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.8
1.3
1.0
1.6
3.3
2.0
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.7
16.3%
2.8%
17.0%
22.1%
17.7%
9.2%
8.7%
8.2%
15.7%
16.1%
6.5%
18.4%
26.0%
17.9%
10.9%
9.4%
9.8%
16.4%
15.5%
7.2%
18.1%
26.2%
18.0%
12.6%
11.9%
11.0%
16.4%
5.5
13.1
6.5
57.7
7.8
6.6
6.2
6.3
7.4
5.0
9.9
6.0
54.9
7.4
6.4
5.9
5.6
6.9
7.0%
na
8.6%
6.2%
3.9%
3.3%
1.3%
2.8%
5.1%
7.4%
na
9.7%
6.5%
4.1%
3.3%
1.7%
2.9%
5.4%
564,950
12.7
11.5
10.1
6.6%
1.8
1.7
1.5
14.4%
15.1%
15.8%
7.8
7.3
3.5%
3.8%
009830
011170
051910
011780
010060
KS
KS
KS
KS
KS
1301
1303
1326
6505
TT
TT
TT
TT
59
PropertyProperty Development
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
PROPERTY
DEVELOPMENT
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun Ekataksin
T (66) 2 6579229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
Figure 1: High earnings visibility for residential plays backed by solid backlogs
Company
(THBm)
Highlighted Companies
Supalai (SPALI TB)
SPALI is one of the leading residential developers in
Thailand with revenue mix of 50% SDH/TH and 50%
condo. It is well known for offering products that are
perceived as good value for money. It has significant
exposure to the rural market (40% of its total
launches). As a company focussed on
cost-efficiency, SPALI consistently achieves high
gross margins of above 40%, and net margins
exceeding 20%.
Pruksa (PS TB)
PS is the largest developer in Thailand in terms of
M s presales. It is a dominant player in the TH
market (50% market share), achieving an impressive
turnaround after being severely hit by the floods. Its
less-is-more strategy, with its efficient shorter
business cycle time, has helped to speed up its
bottom line improvements.
ANAN
AP
LH
LPN
PS
QH
SC
SIRI
SPALI
CIMB's
2014F
9,300
21,443
25,119
13,690
40,000
19,401
9,661
30,496
19,100
% Secured
2014F
3,894
2,076
66
3,460
12,000
1,840
2,218
9,920
7,063
2014F
104.3%
104.4%
74.3%
82.0%
105.9%
88.8%
101.2%
88.4%
97.0%
% Locked in
62.4%
94.7%
74.0%
56.7%
75.9%
79.4%
78.2%
55.9%
60.0%
2015F
12,025
23,587
27,631
16,710
46,000
21,729
10,821
35,071
21,965
% Secured
2015F
39.20%
35.21%
10.71%
95.77%
35.39%
25.45%
30.25%
62.23%
74.07%
2016F
14,790
25,474
30,394
19,217
52,900
24,989
12,444
39,279
24,820
% Secured
2016F
65.88%
12.35%
23.57%
9.84%
14.13%
1.64%
38.19%
32.59%
33.18%
Promising outlook
Despite the challenging macro
environment, we still expect 4Q14s
earnings to continue to show yoy
growth, thanks to sales expansion in
both
SDH/TH
and
condos,
sustainable gross margins and lower
SG&A ratios. It would appear that the
results for some companies, like AP,
SC and QH, may have already peaked
in 3Q14. However, firms like ANAN,
LPN, SIRI and SPALI should post
backend-loaded earnings in 4Q14 on
an expected larger bulk of condo
transfers. Presales activity will slow
down in 4Q14 for most of the
companies.
FY14s
normalised
earnings are expected to grow 14% on
average for our coverage, and should
continue to grow at 22% in FY15 and
15% in FY16.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Bloom berg
Ticker
CAPL SP
CIT SP
FCL SP
GLP SP
HOBEE SP
HKL SP
KPLD SP
OUE SP
UEM SP
UOL SP
WP SP
WINGT SP
2-yr EPS
CAGR (%)
18.9%
18.2%
9.3%
2.4%
85.3%
-6.8%
-2.4%
65.1%
19.8%
8.0%
62.6%
-10.8%
3.5%
Gearing(%)
CY2014
47.9%
23.0%
95.0%
11.5%
38.4%
8.2%
26.5%
34.0%
38.5%
32.9%
5.5%
14.9%
27.9%
8.0
13.1
12.8
14.5
7.3
11.7
11.7
17.0
10.1
12.2
42.3%
-22.7%
-10.6%
8.1%
22.6%
21.9%
6.7%
1.7%
-17.0%
4.3%
78.4%
0.8%
Net Cash
Net Cash
9.5%
Net Cash
25.1%
24.1%
Net Cash
Net Cash
1.83
2.65
2.47
2.72
1.19
1.92
1.86
4.29
1.99
2.33
1.56
2.24
2.17
2.38
1.05
1.71
1.64
3.61
1.72
2.04
24.9%
13.2%
17.6%
16.7%
9.7%
16.8%
13.5%
23.7%
14.6%
17.5%
21.1%
18.6%
18.0%
17.5%
15.2%
15.4%
14.9%
23.1%
18.2%
17.8%
1.6%
2.9%
0.8%
1.5%
2.5%
2.3%
1.3%
1.5%
2.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.3%
2.2%
1.7%
2.4%
2.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.3%
1.9%
20.9
157.0
9.6
14.5
13.0
10.9
13.8
13.5
104.1
8.1
9.6
12.8
8.6
12.1
27.1%
-32.9%
14.9%
32.3%
-5.4%
-6.8%
12.6%
18.4%
177.2%
32.0%
16.9%
6.8%
Net Cash
12.3%
1.72
3.10
1.47
1.38
1.13
1.16
1.37
1.57
3.08
1.32
1.27
1.06
1.09
1.41
8.6%
2.0%
16.6%
10.0%
9.1%
11.0%
10.3%
12.2%
3.0%
17.2%
14.0%
8.6%
13.0%
11.6%
2.0%
0.2%
4.0%
3.4%
2.5%
5.2%
3.1%
2.1%
0.3%
4.4%
3.8%
2.5%
6.2%
2.8%
15.3
12.3
8.4
13.6
13.9
17.6
10.8
9.9
9.0
11.0
10.3
11.9
11.8
9.4
7.0
12.8
12.6
12.2
9.0
8.3
7.0
8.6
8.4
9.8
-4.0%
18.3%
10.2%
1.5%
4.4%
10.1%
9.4%
10.6%
7.9%
15.7%
33.0%
12.8%
58.7%
70.6%
80.9%
62.1%
64.5%
38.3%
64.7%
116.5%
120.2%
100.4%
44.4%
75.2%
1.95
1.73
1.11
2.68
2.62
3.51
2.28
1.87
1.15
1.10
2.63
2.09
1.78
1.46
1.01
2.39
2.52
2.93
1.92
1.65
1.04
0.94
2.17
1.85
13.3%
15.0%
14.4%
21.2%
19.7%
20.8%
22.8%
20.0%
12.7%
10.8%
27.3%
18.6%
15.8%
16.8%
15.0%
19.8%
20.4%
26.1%
23.2%
21.2%
15.5%
11.8%
27.5%
19.9%
2.6%
1.5%
4.8%
2.6%
5.4%
2.8%
2.6%
5.1%
4.8%
3.6%
3.9%
3.9%
3.4%
1.8%
5.7%
3.2%
5.9%
4.2%
2.6%
6.0%
7.1%
4.6%
4.8%
4.6%
Add
Hold
Add
Add
Add
Reduce
Add
Add
Hold
Add
Add
Add
Price
(local curr)
3.29
10.02
1.66
2.52
1.94
6.73
3.37
2.02
2.98
6.71
1.76
1.65
Tgt Px
(local curr)
3.84
9.79
2.11
3.31
2.61
5.54
3.57
3.32
3.02
8.37
1.98
2.09
Mkt Cap
(US$ m )
10,633
6,915
3,641
9,256
983
15,834
3,952
1,395
1,441
4,008
1,598
986
ASRI IJ
BEST IJ
BSDE IJ
CTRA IJ
CTRP IJ
LPKR IJ
MTLA IJ
SMRA IJ
SSIA IJ
Add
Add
Add
Add
Hold
Hold
Add
Add
Add
580
735
1,825
1,295
870
1,130
473
1,560
1,060
730
800
2,200
1,500
670
920
650
1,800
1,100
924
575
2,719
1,593
434
2,115
291
1,825
404
8.1
20.8
15.7
17.3
12.7
12.2
14.6
19.6
14.1
14.4
EAST MK
ECW MK
MSGB MK
SPSB MK
UEMS MK
UOAD MK
Hold
Add
Add
Hold
Add
Hold
2.33
3.95
2.25
3.28
1.59
2.10
2.62
7.60
3.21
3.38
2.44
2.18
743
287
953
2,390
2,071
863
AMATA TB
ANAN TB
AP TB
HEMRAJ TB
LH TB
LPN TB
PS TB
QH TB
SIRI TB
SC TB
SPALI TB
Reduce
Add
Add
Hold
Hold
Add
Add
Add
Hold
Add
Add
16.50
3.46
6.45
4.28
9.50
24.90
30.00
3.92
1.86
3.60
26.75
14.44
4.83
9.72
4.63
10.24
29.78
45.95
5.53
2.11
4.99
32.62
535
350
616
1,261
3,169
1,116
2,028
1,093
770
406
1,394
Recom .
P/BV (x)
CY2014
CY2015
0.83
0.81
1.11
1.05
0.67
0.63
1.02
1.00
0.56
0.55
0.58
0.57
0.70
0.67
0.87
0.85
1.06
0.99
0.73
0.70
0.69
0.67
0.43
0.42
0.75
0.73
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
61
TechnologyTechnology Components
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
TECHNOLOGY
COMPONENTS
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
We expect the auto segment to be the main driver for Thai electronic
companies over the next five years due to increasing demand for
electronic components in vehicles. Our top pick is still KCE for its solid
growth backed by high exposure to the auto segment and its cheapest
rating in the sector.
Thanakorn CHONGSUKSIRICHOK
T (66) 2 657 9227
E thanakorn.ch@cimb.com
Show Style "View Doc Map"
25.0
20.0
Highlighted Companies
Delta Electronics
Despite Deltas impressive growth and stable growth
outlook in 2015, we believe its current valuation of
13.7x FY16 P/E is not attractive as it stands at 1.7
s.d. above its 5-year mean due to the recent price
rally following its inclusion in MSCI Global Standard
Indexes.
KCE Electronics
KCE remains our top pick for the tech sector in
Thailand given the high growth potential from rising
demand for automotive PCB, supported by a new
factory which will come online next year.
SVI
We expect SVI to underperform the SET index in
2015 after the fire in Nov 2014. Its earnings could
come under pressure from a ramp-up of production
after the fire. It will take time at the earliest about a
year to reach pre-fire capacity.
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
KCE Electronics
Jan-14
SOURCES: WHO
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Technology ComponentsThailand
December 12, 2014
Bloomberg Ticker
DELTA TB
KCE TB
SVI TB
Recom.
(local
curr)
Hold 77.00
Add 38.75
Reduce
4.22
Target
Price
(local
curr)
80.00
49.00
3.12
Market Cap
(US$ m)
3-year EPS
CAGR (%)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield
(%)
CY2014
CY2015
2,926
666
291
16.3
11.3
12.4
14.5
10.3
21.5
9.1%
20.6%
-4.8%
3.48
3.67
1.94
3.17
2.93
1.85
22.3%
35.7%
15.6%
22.8%
31.5%
8.8%
22.6%
30.8%
13.2%
12.3
11.0
8.7
10.9
9.0
10.3
3.5%
2.2%
3.4%
3.8%
2.6%
2.1%
3,883
14.9
13.9
11.8%
3.31
2.97
23.3%
22.5%
23.0%
11.6
10.3
3.3%
3.5%
63
TelecommunicationsTelco - overall
December 12, 2014
THAILAND
TELCO - OVERALL
SECTOR BRIEF
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 6579226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
15
Highlighted Companies
Thaicom
Thaicom is an essential infrastructure play for local
TV broadcasters, which compete intensively on
channel variety (satellite free TV) and HD channels
(pay TV).
10
5
0
AIS
DTAC
True
FY15 EV/EBITDA (x)
Jasmine International
Jasmine is the dominant fixed broadband operator in
the upcountry, where the FBB penetration rate is
below 15% vs. 45% in Bangkok.
Total Access Communication
DTAC, the second-largest mobile operator, should
be in a neutral position regardless of whether the
spectrum auction will take place as scheduled.
Jasmine
Thaicom
Intouch
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Telco - overallThailand
December 12, 2014
Bloomberg
Ticker
Recom.
ADVANC TB
JAS TB
INTUCH TB
THCOM TB
DTAC TB
TRUE TB
Hold
Add
Add
Add
Add
Reduce
243.00
9.50
86.00
52.00
117.00
10.13
Market Cap
(US$ m)
22,187.3
1,625.2
7,496.0
1,193.4
7,158.2
9,519.4
18.9
11.7
13.3
15.5
18.2
241.9
20.5
3-year EPS
CAGR (%)
3.8%
17.9%
10.2%
26.0%
9.6%
na
17.7%
P/BV (x)
CY2014
CY2015
16.1
4.1
17.2
2.3
6.9
3.9
7.9
14.7
3.5
17.1
2.1
7.4
3.5
7.3
81.4%
32.5%
128.8%
14.3%
39.3%
1.5%
37.0%
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY2014
CY2015
12.2
7.4
14.9
7.5
7.7
18.0
11.8
11.3
6.0
12.6
6.0
6.8
15.5
10.5
5.4%
5.1%
7.5%
4.8%
6.4%
0.0%
4.8%
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
65
THAILAND
CIMB Analyst(s)
Praphan Yukhunthrontham
T (66)2 6579239
E praphan.yu@cimb.com
Figure 1: What will happen for the mass transit network in 2015
Projects
1 Purple
2 Blue Line
(extension)
3 Green (South)
4 Green (North)
Routes
Distance
(Km)
22
26
13
19
80
Year to
operate
Stations
16 (Elevated)
21 (17 elevated &
4 underground)
9 (Elevated)
16 (Elevated)
62
(expected)
2016 BMCL operator; BMN will bid for commercial & ads in 2015
2017 Under construction and will select operator in 2015
2017
2018
Highlighted Companies
BTS Group Holdings (BTS)
BTS, the Bangkok Skytrain operator, also manages
media, property and service businesses. All
business units revenues will be better from
onwards. BTS also receives dividends from BTSGIF
(33% stake).
Bangkok Metro (BMCL)
Although it is the operator of the Purple Line, which
is to commence operations in 2016, and likely to also
operate the Blue Line extension, it will take many
years for BMCL to clear its carry-forward losses and
pay dividends to shareholders.
Note
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Bloomberg Recom.
Ticker
Singapore
ComfortDelGro
SMRT Corporation
Singapore- Average
Price
CD SP
MRT SP
ADD
ADD
BTS TB
BMCL TB
ADD
REDUCE
(US$ m)
3-year EPS
CAGR (%)
P/BV (x)
CY2015
2.6
1.6
3.1
1.8
4,221
1,850
6,071
18.7
30.7
21.0
18.2
26.4
20.1
4.9%
19.2%
8.1%
2.37
2.89
2.51
2.24
2.71
2.37
13.2%
9.8%
12%
12.6%
10.7%
12%
12.7%
12.7%
12%
7.2
8.9
7.7
6.9
7.8
7.1
3.0%
1.4%
2.5%
3.1%
1.5%
2.6%
10.1
1.9
11.0
1.1
3,637
1,161
5,942
52.8
na
52.8
47.2
na
47.2
13.8%
na
32.6%
2.10
4.62
2.41
2.20
5.23
2.54
4.1%
4.6%
-5.0% -12.6%
2.7%
2.9%
5.1%
-5.0%
4.0%
31.3
45.3
37.4
27.3
37.1
34.8
6.1%
0.0%
4.7%
6.5%
0.0%
5.0%
31.1
32.7
23,332
17.4
16.0
-5.9%
1.18
1.14
8.5%
6.7%
6.8%
12.3
11.8
3.1%
3.2%
384.0
1,024.0
630.0
200.0
859.6
652.4
6,204
6,395
6,787
19,385
28.7
32.2
16.9
21
28.1
28.5
16.7
23
7.3%
9.7%
5.7%
-4.6%
3.30
3.05
1.42
1.96
2.60
2.79
1.30
1.83
12.9%
11.3%
10.1%
9%
10.2%
9.8%
8.7%
8%
8.7%
8.6%
7.1%
7%
16.9
14.3
12.2
14.2
15.7
15.3
12.4
14.3
1.3%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
54,730
12.0
12.0
-2.0%
1.5
1.5
13%
12%
12%
10.3
9.9
5.9%
6.0%
Thailand
BTS Group
Bangkok Metro
Thailand- Average
Hong Kong
MTR Corp Ltd
66 HK
Japan
Kintetsu Corp
9041 JP
Odakyu Electric Railway Co9007
Ltd JP
Hankyu Hanshin Holdings Inc
9042 JP
Japan- Average
Average
67
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
68
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Company Briefs
69
Telco - MobileThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$22,187m
US$38.23m
36.2%
THB728,408m
THB1,243m
2,973 m shares
Current
THB245.0
Target
THB243.0
Prev. Target
THB243.0
Up/Downside
-0.8%
Conviction|
A handicapped giant
CIMB Analyst(s)
Given the lack of spectrum auction clarity, we think that it is too early
and too risky to buy into AIS at this point. Intouch (Add, TP THB86)
offers better value (higher upside vs. identical downside) while DTAC
(Add, TP THB117) is our top Thai mobile pick.
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
6.4
19.9
-1.7
Absolute
5.2
18.4
12.4
Major shareholders
% held
40.5
23.4
2.6
Financial Summary
260
114.0
240
104.0
220
94.0
200
84.0
180
40
74.0
30
Vol m
20
10
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
141,568
60,960
43.1%
34,883
11.52
16.4%
21.27
10.90
4.45%
11.96
22.17
1.2%
82.9%
Dec-13A
142,831
62,817
44.0%
36,274
12.04
4.5%
20.35
12.15
4.96%
11.87
34.94
36.7%
80.4%
Dec-14F
142,957
62,348
43.6%
34,117
11.28
(6.3%)
21.73
11.48
4.68%
12.18
29.08
68.0%
73.6%
0%
0.93
Dec-15F
148,408
67,893
45.7%
38,973
12.97
15.0%
18.89
13.11
5.35%
11.34
21.15
82.8%
81.4%
0%
0.95
Dec-16F
152,009
69,852
46.0%
43,095
14.40
11.0%
17.02
14.49
5.92%
10.81
12.92
52.8%
86.0%
0%
0.90
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
142,831
77,627
62,817
(16,186)
46,630
(1,002)
0
871
46,499
(217)
46,282
(10,008)
Dec-14F
142,957
80,744
62,348
(19,177)
43,171
(1,115)
0
590
42,646
0
42,646
(8,529)
Dec-15F
148,408
86,013
67,893
(18,610)
49,283
(977)
0
411
48,717
0
48,717
(9,743)
Dec-16F
152,009
86,472
69,852
(15,254)
54,598
(1,019)
0
289
53,868
0
53,868
(10,774)
36,274
0
0
34,117
0
0
38,973
0
0
43,095
0
0
36,274
35,790
35,790
34,117
33,527
33,527
38,973
38,562
38,562
43,095
42,806
42,806
Dec-13A
62,817
Dec-14F
62,348
Dec-15F
67,893
Dec-16F
69,852
(13,330)
6,171
1,196
11,525
1,493
(1,002)
(10,008)
39,970
(28,460)
16
328
5,696
(22,421)
3,297
0
0
(33,889)
1,309
(1,115)
(8,529)
60,183
(39,895)
0
0
76
(39,818)
4,684
0
0
(34,462)
1,020
(977)
(9,743)
59,388
(34,525)
0
0
52
(34,473)
9,530
0
0
(34,962)
891
(1,019)
(10,774)
70,475
(13,664)
0
0
37
(13,628)
(470)
0
0
(42,327)
4,683
(25,909)
(8,360)
20,846
18,551
(45)
(29,822)
(9,457)
25,049
21,480
(34)
(25,466)
(550)
34,445
25,893
(24)
(42,821)
14,026
56,377
57,866
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
2,016
9,893
2,828
10,296
25,032
90,741
104
0
6,934
97,779
12,960
Dec-15F
1,466
9,542
2,816
10,421
24,245
106,655
104
0
6,934
113,694
12,960
Dec-16F
15,491
9,121
2,815
10,469
37,895
105,066
104
0
6,934
112,104
12,960
11,718
20,813
45,491
15,355
11,294
27,684
51,937
20,039
10,793
29,770
53,523
29,569
9,518
42,809
65,287
29,099
5,287
20,642
0
66,133
45,726
173
45,900
5,287
25,326
0
77,263
45,382
173
45,555
5,287
34,856
0
88,379
49,393
173
49,567
5,287
34,386
0
99,672
50,161
173
50,334
Dec-13A
0.9%
3.05%
44.0%
(5.66)
15.38
46.52
21.6%
99.0%
23.42
12.01
53.34
61.4%
67.5%
Dec-14F
0.1%
(0.75%)
43.6%
(10.42)
15.26
38.71
20.0%
100.0%
25.73
16.70
67.50
44.5%
56.5%
Dec-15F
3.8%
8.89%
45.7%
(13.81)
16.61
50.43
20.0%
100.0%
23.90
16.51
64.60
42.2%
57.8%
Dec-16F
2.4%
2.88%
46.0%
(8.94)
16.87
53.59
20.0%
100.0%
22.47
15.72
56.72
39.9%
59.2%
Dec-13A
40.86
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
42.61
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
43.66
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
43.86
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
11,473
10,264
2,865
10,363
34,965
70,023
104
0
6,934
77,061
12,960
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jasmine International
71
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Amata Corporation
AMATA TB / AMAT.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$536.3m
US$1.84m
61.9%
THB17,606m
THB59.93m
1,067 m shares
Current
THB16.50
Target
THB14.44
Prev. Target
THB10.51
Up/Downside
-12.5%
Conviction|
Challenging outlook
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
Relative
2.4
-0.9
-4.1
Absolute
1.2
-2.4
10.0
Major shareholders
12M
% held
Kromadit family
Thai NVDR
Itochu Management (Thailand)
30.5
5.6
4.7
Price Close
116.0
17.0
107.3
15.0
98.5
13.0
89.8
11.0
30
81.0
Vol m
20
10
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
11.90
14.44
Current
Target
Overhang
The listing of AVN has been delayed
from 4Q14 to 2H15 while that of
Amata Summit REIT has been pushed
back to 1H15. AMATA has introduced
the leasehold method for land sales in
the new B zone of AN; this appears to
cause the delay in decision making
among its new customers in buying
industrial land for manufacturing
factories.
Stay cautious
We keep our EPS estimates. 9M14
EPS was only 37% of our
below-consensus FY14 estimate. Our
model excluded one-off gains. We feel
that
the
market
has
been
over-optimistic on AMATA. We expect
a continued gap between expectations
and actual performance. Downside
risk for this year cannot be ruled out
while next years visibility is unclear.
Not a choice
Given the slowing BOI/FDI, we prefer
residential developers as they: 1) are
better positioned to benefit from
consumption stimulus measures (if
any), 2) are less affected by property
tax, given the shorter business cycle
for land holding, and 3) offer more
sustainable
earnings
visibility,
cheaper valuations and higher yields.
Financial Summary
19.0
Dec-13
Dec-12A
5,613
2,608
1,501
1.41
86.5%
11.73
0.56
3.41%
8.07
21.25
56.7%
2.39
19.7%
Dec-13A
7,164
2,814
1,516
1.42
1.0%
11.62
0.57
3.44%
6.92
NA
56.2%
2.12
19.3%
Dec-14F
5,726
2,385
1,151
1.08
(24.1%)
15.30
0.43
2.61%
8.80
32.24
58.7%
1.95
13.3%
0%
0.88
Dec-15F
6,758
2,855
1,496
1.40
30.0%
11.77
0.56
3.40%
7.30
70.58
55.7%
1.78
15.8%
0%
1.07
Dec-16F
7,766
3,272
1,813
1.70
21.2%
9.71
0.68
4.12%
6.22
25.27
50.0%
1.60
17.4%
0%
1.16
Amata CorporationThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
7,164
3,437
2,814
(277)
2,538
(530)
99
180
2,910
0
2,287
(359)
Dec-14F
5,726
2,767
2,385
(193)
2,192
(586)
102
198
2,289
0
1,907
(343)
Dec-15F
6,758
3,340
2,855
(232)
2,624
(619)
106
218
2,813
0
2,328
(419)
Dec-16F
7,766
3,859
3,272
(266)
3,006
(618)
109
218
3,302
0
2,715
(489)
1,928
(413)
0
1,564
(413)
0
1,909
(413)
0
2,226
(413)
0
1,516
1,516
1,516
1,151
1,151
1,151
1,496
1,496
1,496
1,813
1,813
1,813
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
1,295
Dec-15F
1,026
Dec-16F
1,078
655
5,976
121
8,704
1,193
11,925
0
380
13,499
2,296
710
6,421
125
8,551
1,434
12,734
0
388
14,556
2,355
772
6,370
129
8,296
1,809
13,625
0
396
15,830
2,324
842
6,394
135
8,449
1,954
14,585
0
404
16,942
2,293
3,251
268
5,815
5,387
3,207
284
5,846
5,400
3,170
301
5,795
5,400
3,183
319
5,796
5,400
810
6,197
0
12,012
8,318
1,874
10,191
856
6,256
0
12,101
9,008
1,997
11,006
904
6,304
0
12,099
9,906
2,121
12,027
956
6,356
0
12,152
10,994
2,245
13,239
Dec-13A
27.6%
22.0%
48.0%
(5.37)
7.80
9.03
15.7%
35.5%
19.66
620.9
62.22
74.0%
17.7%
Dec-14F
(20.1%)
(19.5%)
48.3%
(6.05)
8.44
6.64
18.0%
48.8%
33.19
764.8
80.26
53.6%
13.2%
Dec-15F
18.0%
20.7%
49.4%
(6.28)
9.28
7.74
18.0%
41.5%
29.52
682.9
70.85
55.6%
15.3%
Dec-16F
14.9%
15.5%
49.7%
(6.20)
10.30
8.98
18.0%
38.0%
27.05
597.9
63.40
59.8%
16.8%
Dec-13A
4,000.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
48.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16.3%
Dec-14F
3,640.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
48.3%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.1%
Dec-15F
1,560.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
49.4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.1%
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
N/A
49.7%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.1%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
2,814
Dec-14F
2,385
Dec-15F
2,855
Dec-16F
3,272
(516)
277
(7)
193
(8)
232
(8)
266
2,419
(350)
(359)
4,009
(3,363)
0
2,664
(388)
(343)
4,311
(3,523)
0
2,812
(402)
(419)
4,839
(3,850)
0
2,963
(400)
(489)
5,338
(3,817)
0
(866)
22
(4,207)
69
(0)
0
(606)
(284)
22
(3,785)
20
(0)
0
(460)
(686)
22
(4,514)
(75)
(0)
0
(598)
(822)
22
(4,617)
(25)
(0)
0
(725)
80
(458)
80
(360)
80
(594)
80
(670)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,952
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
73
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Ananda Development
ANAN TB / ANAN.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$351.3m
US$3.45m
39.5%
THB11,532m
THB111.8m
3,333 m shares
Current
THB3.46
Target
THB4.83
Prev. Target
THB4.22
Up/Downside
39.6%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-2.7
-10.7
61.5
Absolute
-3.9
-12.2
75.6
Major shareholders
% held
Ruangkritya family
HSBC Bangkok
Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) PCL
60.0
8.6
6.4
Price Close
194
3.30
154
2.30
114
1.30
300
74
Vol m
200
100
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Attractive investment
ANANs P/Es have become more
attractive, at 9.7x CY15 and 7.4x CY16
compared to the peer average of 10x
for CY15 and 9x for CY16 even though
ANAN offers compelling FY15-16 EPS
growth of 30% compared to the peer
average of 16-22%. In addition, ANAN
plans to maintain its yearly dividend
payout.
Financial Summary
4.30
Dec-13
Dec-12A
5,131
502
(199)
(0.07)
(54.4%)
NA
0.00%
18.58
NA
1.8%
2.27
(8.0%)
Dec-13A
9,202
1,493
812
0.24
NA
14.21
0.050
1.45%
9.00
9.59
32.3%
1.96
14.8%
Dec-14F
9,052
1,773
938
0.28
15.6%
12.30
0.051
1.47%
9.16
NA
70.6%
1.73
15.0%
0%
Dec-15F
12,078
2,326
1,222
0.37
30.3%
9.44
0.061
1.77%
7.26
15.44
68.0%
1.46
16.8%
0%
Dec-16F
13,164
2,896
1,610
0.48
31.7%
7.16
0.081
2.33%
5.91
43.27
58.8%
1.21
18.5%
0%
Ananda DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
9,202
3,461
1,493
(356)
1,137
(18)
(94)
0
1,024
Dec-14F
9,052
3,184
1,773
(437)
1,336
(152)
(40)
0
1,144
Dec-15F
12,078
4,245
2,326
(534)
1,792
(225)
(40)
0
1,528
Dec-16F
13,164
4,629
2,896
(606)
2,289
(446)
291
(122)
2,013
1,024
(213)
1,144
(206)
1,528
(306)
2,013
(403)
812
938
1,222
1,610
812
812
812
938
938
938
1,222
1,222
1,222
1,610
1,610
1,610
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
1,300
Dec-15F
1,797
Dec-16F
1,161
351
7,912
629
11,202
660
0
59
561
1,280
0
2,654
1,004
1,358
5,016
1,552
675
10,400
1,405
13,780
650
0
95
685
1,430
1,000
0
370
2,080
3,450
5,000
151
13,354
1,362
16,664
580
0
120
251
951
650
0
381
2,106
3,138
6,500
151
15,157
1,488
17,957
550
0
120
254
924
250
0
393
2,134
2,776
6,500
34
1,587
0
6,603
5,879
100
5,100
0
8,550
6,660
100
6,600
0
9,738
7,878
100
6,600
0
9,376
9,504
5,879
6,660
7,878
9,504
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
1,493
0
(1,592)
356
0
0
351
(112)
(213)
(73)
(528)
0
0
0
(250)
(778)
2,054
(4)
0
(167)
0
(782)
1,102
Dec-14F
1,773
0
(3,445)
437
0
0
803
(192)
(206)
(1,268)
(400)
0
0
0
(260)
(660)
1,794
322
0
(169)
0
(150)
1,797
Dec-15F
2,326
0
(2,419)
534
0
0
772
(265)
(306)
109
(352)
0
0
0
(160)
(512)
1,150
0
0
(204)
0
(583)
363
Dec-16F
2,896
0
(1,792)
606
0
0
807
(277)
(403)
1,231
(405)
0
0
0
(160)
(565)
(400)
0
0
(268)
0
(583)
(1,251)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Jan-11
Jan-12
Dec-13A
79.8%
198%
16.3%
(0.57)
1.76
10.13
20.8%
20.5%
7.41
23,845
2,350
16.6%
13.4%
Dec-14F
(1.3%)
19%
19.6%
(1.41)
2.00
6.96
18.0%
18.0%
20.69
583
44
13.7%
11.8%
Dec-15F
33.4%
31%
19.3%
(1.61)
2.36
6.77
20.0%
16.7%
12.48
564
18
12.5%
13.0%
Dec-16F
9.0%
24%
22.0%
(1.68)
2.85
8.27
20.0%
16.7%
4.20
623
17
13.7%
14.7%
Dec-13A
6,774.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
37.8%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
-23.2%
Dec-14F
6,356.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
35.2%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
-20.0%
Dec-15F
6,764.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
35.2%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
-20.0%
Dec-16F
6,734.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
35.2%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
-20.0%
Key Drivers
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
2,309
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
75
Property DevelopmentTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
AP (Thailand) PCL
AP TB / AP.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$594.5m
US$3.42m
64.2%
THB19,505m
THB111.6m
2,868 m shares
Current
THB6.20
Target
THB9.72
Prev. Target
THB9.72
Up/Downside
56.8%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-4.0
-5.7
28.8
Absolute
-6.8
-9.1
Major shareholders
40.3
% held
Anuphong Asavabhokhin
Thai NVDR
Pichet vipavasuphakorn
23.6
10.8
9.3
Price Close
151.2
6.40
135.7
5.40
120.1
4.40
104.6
3.40
80
89.0
60
Vol m
40
20
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
7.40
Dec-13
Dec-12A
17,310
3,080
2,186
0.76
40.4%
8.12
0.32
5.24%
4.62
30.12
80.9%
1.42
18.9%
Dec-13A
19,989
2,943
2,016
0.70
(7.8%)
8.82
0.25
4.08%
4.58
13.93
94.0%
1.27
15.2%
Dec-14F
21,619
3,262
2,197
0.77
9.0%
8.09
0.31
4.94%
4.27
NA
80.9%
1.07
14.4%
0%
1.01
Dec-15F
23,768
3,822
2,631
0.92
19.8%
6.76
0.37
5.92%
3.78
34.47
69.6%
0.97
15.0%
0%
1.12
Dec-16F
25,659
4,253
3,098
1.08
17.7%
5.74
0.43
6.97%
3.42
26.71
59.2%
0.87
16.0%
0%
1.25
AP (Thailand) PCLThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Pref. & Special Div
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
19,989
6,750
2,943
(169)
2,774
(298)
1
73
6,357
5
2,555
(539)
Dec-14F
21,619
7,316
3,262
(161)
3,101
(149)
(100)
(80)
6,826
0
2,771
(574)
Dec-15F
23,768
8,090
3,822
(177)
3,645
(151)
(100)
(80)
7,582
0
3,314
(683)
Dec-16F
25,659
8,732
4,253
(191)
4,062
(311)
45
65
8,340
0
3,861
(763)
2,016
0
0
2,197
0
0
2,631
0
0
3,098
0
0
2,016
2,016
2,016
2,197
2,197
2,197
2,631
2,631
2,631
3,098
3,098
3,098
Dec-13A
2,943
Dec-14F
3,262
Dec-15F
3,822
Dec-16F
4,253
(3,731)
(3,916)
(1,177)
(1,364)
(414)
0
(691)
(1,893)
(80)
0
1,542
0
(539)
348
(86)
0
(680)
0
(574)
1,391
(95)
0
(1,065)
0
(683)
1,141
(103)
0
0
103
23
3,147
0
0
(726)
0
(53)
(140)
(322)
0
0
(879)
0
(22)
(117)
(758)
0
0
(1,053)
0
(23)
(126)
(350)
0
0
(1,239)
582
(1,228)
582
(1,007)
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
1,666
Dec-15F
1,578
Dec-16F
1,922
110
30,784
0
33,158
129
0
0
1,123
1,252
5,059
80
34,001
0
35,746
165
0
0
722
888
5,100
84
35,174
0
36,835
174
0
0
751
925
4,300
88
36,534
0
38,543
182
0
0
782
965
3,500
1,291
3,318
9,668
10,371
562
4,102
9,764
10,008
563
4,235
9,098
10,050
563
4,287
8,350
10,500
364
10,735
0
20,403
14,007
0
14,007
254
10,262
0
20,026
16,609
0
16,609
254
10,304
0
19,402
18,362
0
18,362
254
10,754
0
19,104
20,407
0
20,407
Dec-13A
15.5%
11.8%
33.8%
(4.59)
4.88
22.50
21.1%
12.5%
2.00
789.6
28.49
(65.9%)
24.3%
Dec-14F
8.2%
8.4%
33.8%
(4.69)
5.79
28.70
20.7%
14.1%
1.60
826.7
23.61
(59.8%)
23.4%
Dec-15F
9.9%
10.6%
34.0%
(4.45)
6.40
31.51
20.6%
15.3%
1.25
805.2
13.04
(60.1%)
24.6%
Dec-16F
8.0%
7.9%
34.0%
(4.21)
7.12
32.11
19.8%
16.4%
1.22
775.2
12.11
(62.6%)
25.5%
Dec-13A
13,086.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
33.8%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
19.9%
Dec-14F
8,330.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
33.8%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
19.5%
Dec-15F
7,021.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18.7%
Dec-16F
7,021.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18.2%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
(406)
2,016
1,440
239
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
2,264
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
77
AirlinesThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$688.4m
US$2.24m
40.0%
THB22,601m
THB72.97m
4,850 m shares
Current
THB4.66
Target
THB2.20
Prev. Target
THB2.20
Up/Downside
-52.8%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
9.1
-0.6
-9.1
Absolute
7.9
-2.1
5.0
Major shareholders
% held
Tassapon Bijleveld
Other management
33.0
27.0
Competition to increase
Domestic
capacity
ex-Bangkok
Suvarnabhumi (BKK) and ex-Don
Muang (DMK) airports is expected to
rise 17.4% yoy between January 2014
and January 2015, on top of the 34%
yoy increase during 2013 and the 13%
increase during 2012, mainly due to
expansion by Thai Lion Air. In
addition, Thai VietJet is expected to
launch flights in December 2014, and
its two A320s could contribute around
5,000 additional seats per week to the
domestic market. If we put this
additional 5,000 seats into the first
week of January 2015, domestic seat
capacity from Bangkok could rise a
staggering 19% yoy.
Thai Lion Air is also expected to
double its fleet in 2015 to 20 planes.
The new entrants are likely to offer
very attractive fares to entice
passengers to try their services, and in
the process, force the incumbents to
Price Close
105.0
4.70
97.5
4.20
90.0
3.70
82.5
3.20
75.0
Source: Bloomberg
2.20
Current
Target
Financial Summary
5.20
3.42
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
16,103
1,295
15,513
0.26
37%
17.66
0%
22.02
41.9
(7.5%)
1.23
14.0%
Dec-13A
23,485
2,357
1,043
0.28
6%
16.64
0%
15.32
NA
23.2%
1.17
7.2%
Dec-14F
25,691
(93)
(300)
(0.03)
(111%)
NA
0%
NA
NA
41.3%
1.19
(0.8%)
0%
Dec-15F
30,172
1,841
467
0.13
NA
36.62
0%
24.28
460.2
54.3%
1.16
3.2%
0%
Dec-16F
33,976
2,441
618
0.16
24%
29.43
0%
19.86
56.9
63.8%
1.12
3.9%
0%
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
23,485
2,357
2,357
(406)
1,951
(9)
0
671
2,612
(53)
2,559
(651)
Dec-14F
25,691
(93)
(93)
(667)
(760)
(138)
0
445
(453)
0
(453)
(92)
Dec-15F
30,172
1,841
1,841
(881)
960
(245)
0
508
1,223
0
1,223
(374)
Dec-16F
33,976
2,441
2,441
(1,119)
1,322
(337)
0
572
1,557
0
1,557
(434)
1,908
(865)
(545)
245
849
(382)
1,124
(506)
1,043
1,358
1,358
(300)
(150)
(150)
467
617
617
618
768
768
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
2,357
Dec-14F
(93)
Dec-15F
1,841
Dec-16F
2,441
(2,408)
(49)
(83)
(42)
4,202
(167)
(292)
3,692
(1,904)
(3,452)
847
(270)
(92)
343
(4,160)
0
967
(352)
(374)
1,999
(5,480)
0
1,116
(440)
(434)
2,641
(5,480)
0
118
(5,238)
(269)
0
(528)
(4,688)
3,084
0
0
(5,480)
3,530
0
0
(5,480)
3,236
0
0
(167)
(436)
(1,982)
(1,815)
(1,379)
0
(270)
2,814
(1,531)
(1,261)
(4,075)
0
(352)
3,179
(303)
49
(3,129)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Dec-15F
139
1,042
92
4,944
6,217
19,048
528
23,694
2,469
45,738
1,000
Dec-16F
95
1,173
103
4,944
6,315
23,409
528
23,694
2,469
50,100
1,000
784
5,873
7,272
7,546
805
5,873
7,678
10,245
885
5,873
7,757
13,775
985
5,873
7,857
17,011
3,443
10,988
0
18,260
19,346
7,329
26,675
3,443
13,688
0
21,365
19,046
7,084
26,130
3,443
17,218
0
24,975
19,513
7,466
26,980
3,443
20,454
0
28,311
20,131
7,972
28,103
Dec-13A
45.8%
82%
10.0%
(1.28)
3.99
11.41
25.4%
NA
8.57
1.28
3.92
6%
6.71%
Dec-14F
9.4%
(104%)
(0.4%)
(2.23)
3.93
(2.81)
0.0%
NA
10.76
1.23
3.28
(2%)
(1.74%)
Dec-15F
17.4%
NA
6.1%
(3.02)
4.02
2.73
30.6%
NA
10.41
1.14
2.52
2%
2.70%
Dec-16F
12.6%
33%
7.2%
(3.69)
4.15
3.00
27.8%
NA
10.64
1.13
2.51
2%
3.25%
Dec-13A
23.4%
25.7%
83.6%
2.2
1.8
16.9
7.3
6.6
35
Dec-14F
22.8%
17.4%
80.0%
2.0
1.6
17.0
7.6
6.3
122.0
40
Dec-15F
13.4%
14.2%
80.5%
2.1
1.7
16.6
7.2
6.4
115.0
45
Dec-16F
12.5%
12.4%
80.5%
2.1
1.7
16.5
7.2
6.4
115.0
50
0
(440)
2,796
(43)
397
(2,399)
Key Drivers
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
AirAsia Bhd
Dec-14F
441
887
84
4,944
6,356
14,449
528
23,694
2,469
41,140
1,000
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,972
811
90
4,944
7,817
10,956
0
23,694
2,469
37,118
615
Jan-11
Jan-12
AirAsia X Bhd
Jan-13
Jan-14
Cebu Air
79
BanksThailand
December 12, 2014
Bangkok Bank
BBL TB / BBL.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$11,600m
US$31.49m
95.0%
THB380,814m
THB1,024m
1,909 m shares
Current
THB199.5
Target
THB203.0
Prev. Target
THB200.0
Up/Downside
1.8%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Weerapat WONK-URAI
T (66) 2 657 9224
E weerapat.wo@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
1.2
-5.3
-6.3
Absolute
0.0
-6.8
7.8
Major shareholders
% held
Sophonpanich family
4.2
No exceptional growth
Its credit growth over the last two
years has been slower than its large
bank peers, and we believe this trend
will continue. We forecast an FY15
loan growth of 8%. Growth drivers
will mainly come from wholesale
banking which should benefit from
government spending in FY15. Going
forward, we believe BBLs top line
growth will not deviate from the past
trend due to its rather dated business
model. For example, BBL does not
focus
on
the
private
wealth
management of its retail customers.
As such, the bank loses the
opportunity tap on the rising wealth
Price Close
107.0
210.0
104.0
200.0
101.0
190.0
98.0
180.0
95.0
170.0
92.0
160.0
30
89.0
Vol m
20
10
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Outlook
Although it is perceived that BBL will
be one of the key beneficiaries of
public and private investments in
2015, we think that the bank is losing
market share in business lending to
its peers. In addition, BBLs
cross-selling efforts have not been
improved to reap the benefits of its
full-scale banking services. This is a
result of its conservative management
style that includes BBLs high
provisioning policy. On the flip side,
BBLs good asset quality and highest
NPL coverage ratio (LLR/NPL ratio of
244%) are the banks strong points.
Its NPL ratio has not been materially
impacted from the rising household
debt of retail customers as it does not
participate in auto hire purchase
lending.
Financial Summary
220.0
Dec-13
Dec-12A
54,953
30,458
85,411
(7,248)
31,848
16.68
16.5%
11.96
6.50
3.26%
143.3
1.39
12.3%
Dec-13A
55,879
35,579
91,457
(8,593)
35,906
18.81
12.7%
10.61
6.50
3.26%
155.0
1.29
12.6%
Dec-14F
58,138
38,152
96,290
(10,000)
35,589
18.64
(0.9%)
10.70
7.46
3.74%
166.8
1.20
11.6%
(2.04%)
0.96
Dec-15F
59,300
40,973
100,273
(8,500)
38,115
19.97
7.1%
9.99
7.99
4.00%
179.5
1.11
11.5%
(5.13%)
0.93
Dec-16F
63,387
45,255
108,642
(8,850)
41,818
21.91
9.7%
9.11
8.76
4.39%
193.3
1.03
11.8%
(5.72%)
0.91
Bangkok BankThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
55,879
35,579
91,457
(37,947)
53,510
(8,593)
44,917
0
44,917
0
44,917
Dec-14F
58,138
38,152
96,290
(41,490)
54,800
(10,000)
44,800
0
44,800
0
44,800
Dec-15F
59,300
40,973
100,273
(43,794)
56,480
(8,500)
47,980
0
47,980
0
47,980
Dec-16F
63,387
45,255
108,642
(47,150)
61,491
(8,850)
52,641
0
52,641
0
52,641
44,917
(8,882)
44,800
(8,960)
47,980
(9,596)
52,641
(10,528)
36,035
(130)
0
0
35,906
35,906
35,840
(251)
0
0
35,589
35,589
38,384
(269)
0
0
38,115
38,115
42,113
(295)
0
0
41,818
41,818
(THBm)
Total Gross Loans
Liquid Assets & Invst. (Current)
Other Int. Earning Assets
Total Gross Int. Earning Assets
Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve
Total Net Interest Earning Assets
Intangible Assets
Other Non-Interest Earning Assets
Total Non-Interest Earning Assets
Cash And Marketable Securities
Long-term Investments
Total Assets
Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank Deposits
Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others
Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank's Liabilities Under Acceptances
Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-14F
91.8%
91.3%
32.4%
33.0%
63.9%
81.3%
23.7%
72.8%
0.57%
0.385%
0.151%
Dec-15F
92.7%
92.2%
31.9%
32.4%
65.1%
82.1%
23.5%
74.1%
0.47%
0.318%
0.124%
Dec-16F
91.8%
92.2%
31.0%
31.5%
65.9%
82.2%
23.2%
74.9%
0.45%
0.310%
0.121%
Dec-15F
2,317,624
396,244
7
2,713,875
(103,829)
2,610,046
0
97,195
97,195
47,239
0
2,754,480
2,047,963
136,924
143,215
2,328,102
2,134
81,538
2,411,775
342,584
121
342,705
Dec-16F
2,497,824
406,150
7
2,903,981
(109,215)
2,794,766
0
98,924
98,924
63,035
0
2,956,726
2,242,520
130,078
139,486
2,512,084
2,177
73,398
2,587,658
368,943
123
369,066
Dec-13A
7.08%
10.9%
9.5%
61.1%
2.08%
4.08%
2.01%
2.96%
3.10%
16.1%
2.23%
19.8%
27.7%
Dec-14F
5.28%
2.4%
(0.3%)
60.4%
2.10%
4.08%
1.99%
3.02%
3.08%
18.2%
2.24%
20.0%
32.0%
Dec-15F
4.14%
3.1%
7.1%
59.1%
2.14%
4.08%
1.94%
2.99%
3.02%
15.0%
2.22%
20.0%
32.0%
Dec-16F
8.35%
8.9%
9.7%
58.3%
2.14%
4.10%
1.96%
2.95%
2.98%
14.4%
2.22%
20.0%
32.0%
Dec-13A
9.2%
2.3%
16.8%
41.5%
2.4%
217.1%
0.0%
14.4%
16.9%
5.5%
86.0%
2.4%
11.1%
Dec-14F
0.0%
2.3%
7.2%
43.1%
2.3%
244.4%
0.0%
15.6%
18.0%
-1.1%
86.6%
2.3%
6.9%
Dec-15F
8.0%
2.2%
7.4%
43.7%
2.2%
248.5%
0.0%
15.6%
17.8%
7.0%
87.6%
2.2%
14.6%
Dec-16F
8.5%
2.3%
10.5%
43.4%
2.2%
246.5%
0.0%
15.6%
17.6%
9.5%
86.9%
2.2%
15.1%
Key Drivers
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
Jan-11
Dec-14F
2,172,897
392,321
7
2,565,224
(98,655)
2,466,570
0
93,009
93,009
37,679
0
2,597,258
1,913,984
126,782
147,071
2,187,837
2,092
88,726
2,278,655
318,484
118
318,602
Key Ratios
0.00
Jan-10
Dec-13A
2,164,871
377,413
7
2,542,290
(92,583)
2,449,707
0
93,249
93,249
53,550
0
2,596,507
1,935,272
124,296
151,057
2,210,625
2,051
87,779
2,300,456
295,936
116
296,052
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Bangkok Bank
Kasikornbank
81
HospitalsThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$676.0m
US$1.03m
38.4%
THB22,194m
THB33.56m
2,494 m shares
Current
THB8.90
Target
THB9.30
Prev. Target
THB9.30
Up/Downside
4.5%
Conviction|
No pain, no gain
CIMB Analyst(s)
The opening of Karunvej Hospital may stir some concern over start-up
losses. We believe that a further improvement at BCHs World Medical
Centre (WMC) will more than offset Karunvejs start-up loss. This is the
price BCH has to pay to grow its network.
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-2.1
-12.9
23.9
Absolute
-3.3
-14.4
38.0
Major shareholders
% held
Harnphanich family
BGH
49.8
1.5
Vol m
Price Close
158
10.1
146
9.1
135
8.1
123
7.1
111
6.1
100
5.1
50
40
30
20
10
88
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
5.65
9.30
Current
Target
Financial Summary
11.1
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
4,466
1,352
908.3
0.46
23.7%
19.55
0.43
4.83%
14.30
86.1
28.5%
4.88
26.5%
Dec-13A
4,702
1,005
585.2
0.26
(42.7%)
34.13
0.16
1.80%
23.11
141.8
59.0%
5.60
15.4%
Dec-14F
5,002
961
501.6
0.20
(22.9%)
44.25
0.12
1.36%
27.02
NA
63.4%
5.33
12.3%
0%
Dec-15F
5,502
1,186
645.1
0.26
28.6%
34.40
0.13
1.45%
22.34
106.9
65.5%
4.94
14.9%
0%
Dec-16F
6,052
1,361
748.1
0.30
16.0%
29.67
0.15
1.69%
20.51
112.2
80.7%
4.56
16.0%
0%
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
4,796
1,605
1,005
0
1,005
(106)
0
0
899
0
899
(178)
Dec-14F
5,095
1,643
961
0
961
(153)
0
0
808
0
808
(162)
Dec-15F
5,599
1,858
1,186
0
1,186
(177)
0
0
1,009
0
1,009
(202)
Dec-16F
6,155
2,100
1,361
0
1,361
(207)
0
0
1,154
0
1,154
(231)
721
(136)
647
(145)
807
(162)
923
(175)
585
585
585
502
502
502
645
645
645
748
748
748
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
1,345
722
164
43
2,274
7,427
2
274
47
7,750
725
Dec-14F
960
830
167
45
2,002
8,169
0
225
35
8,429
738
Dec-15F
1,103
955
170
46
2,274
8,986
0
225
35
9,246
782
Dec-16F
1,096
1,050
174
47
2,368
10,784
0
200
40
11,024
821
523
568
1,815
3,300
559
573
1,870
3,300
598
579
1,959
3,800
640
585
2,046
5,000
369
3,669
0
5,484
3,966
574
4,539
406
3,706
0
5,576
4,166
688
4,855
447
4,247
0
6,206
4,489
826
5,315
492
5,492
0
7,537
4,863
991
5,854
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
1,005
Dec-14F
961
Dec-15F
1,186
Dec-16F
1,361
(35)
(58)
(28)
(106)
(178)
1,232
(2,457)
(153)
(162)
611
(663)
(177)
(202)
749
(818)
(207)
(231)
895
(1,771)
(536)
(54)
(3,047)
1,957
499
(92)
(1)
(756)
25
(0)
(283)
1
(1,099)
558
(0)
(179)
(1)
(1,951)
1,254
(0)
(399)
(301)
(323)
(374)
150
2,206
391
141
(1,709)
115
(161)
(306)
(119)
8
138
373
23
208
(173)
165
1,045
(11)
198
(849)
510
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Dec-13A
5.3%
(25.7%)
21.4%
(1.07)
1.59
9.5
19.8%
52.3%
59.19
17.43
38.66
15.0%
13.7%
Dec-14F
6.4%
(4.4%)
19.2%
(1.23)
1.67
6.3
20.0%
45.4%
56.65
17.49
43.48
10.1%
11.0%
Dec-15F
10.0%
23.5%
21.6%
(1.40)
1.80
6.7
20.0%
38.1%
59.22
16.46
42.51
11.4%
12.6%
Dec-16F
10.0%
14.7%
22.5%
(1.89)
1.95
6.6
20.0%
38.2%
60.64
15.53
41.69
11.8%
12.6%
Dec-13A
3.3
30,649.5
46.4%
2.5
1,086.0
217.1
4.0%
Dec-14F
3.7
32,182.0
51.1%
2.5
1,391.0
186.5
6.0%
Dec-15F
4.1
33,791.1
56.2%
2.5
1,391.0
205.1
6.0%
Dec-16F
4.5
35,480.6
61.8%
2.5
1,391.0
225.6
6.0%
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Bumrungrad Hospital
Chularat Hospital
83
HospitalsThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$8,588m
US$11.07m
47.6%
THB281,935m
THB359.6m
15,491 m shares
Current
THB18.20
Target
THB23.80
Prev. Target
THB23.80
Up/Downside
30.8%
Conviction|
Big is beautiful
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.6
-0.7
27.5
Absolute
-0.6
-2.2
41.6
Major shareholders
% held
Prasartthongorsoth family
Thongtang family
30.5
15.2
Hub-and-spoke expansion
The six new hospitals slated for
opening over the next couple of years
are in Thailands upcountry and are
secondary care hospitals with only
one basic tertiary care hospital in
Chonburi province. As a result, capex
per bed is not high, at about THB4.5m
(US$140k).
These new hospitals will give BGH
better upcountry reach and should
help refer more serious cases to its
hub hospitals. This will also improve
its traffic and margins at the hubs. As
such, new hospitals will continue to be
one of key earnings drivers for the
next few years.
150.0
19.9
140.0
17.9
130.0
15.9
120.0
13.9
110.0
11.9
100.0
9.9
200
90.0
150
Vol m
100
50
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
10.85
23.80
Current
Target
Financial Summary
21.9
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
45,478
10,221
7,849
0.39
39.8%
44.26
0.18
0.99%
29.24
113.0
41.8%
7.63
17.6%
Dec-13A
50,615
10,334
6,261
0.40
3.4%
44.95
0.20
1.10%
29.24
105.1
43.7%
6.93
16.2%
Dec-14F
56,922
11,748
7,732
0.50
23.3%
36.44
0.20
1.11%
25.96
89.5
44.3%
6.23
18.0%
0%
1.06
Dec-15F
64,580
13,403
9,184
0.59
18.8%
30.70
0.25
1.37%
22.86
76.5
42.6%
5.57
19.2%
0%
1.05
Dec-16F
73,072
15,290
10,768
0.70
17.2%
26.18
0.30
1.63%
20.11
57.2
39.8%
4.97
20.1%
0%
1.06
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
50,615
17,638
10,334
(3,244)
7,090
(894)
988
728
7,912
0
7,912
(1,392)
Dec-14F
56,922
20,057
11,748
(3,406)
8,341
(901)
1,186
696
9,322
0
9,322
(1,383)
Dec-15F
64,580
22,926
13,403
(3,577)
9,826
(988)
1,352
836
11,025
0
11,025
(1,645)
Dec-16F
73,072
26,216
15,290
(3,756)
11,535
(1,176)
1,595
936
12,889
0
12,889
(1,920)
6,520
(259)
0
7,939
(207)
0
9,381
(196)
0
10,969
(200)
0
6,261
6,261
6,261
7,732
7,732
7,732
9,184
9,184
9,184
10,768
10,768
10,768
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
4,182
4,931
919
198
10,229
39,136
13,593
11,600
1,842
66,170
4,072
Dec-14F
4,203
5,910
1,194
217
11,525
43,832
14,952
12,212
2,088
73,084
4,200
Dec-15F
4,023
6,974
1,517
239
12,753
48,215
16,447
12,895
2,368
79,925
4,220
Dec-16F
4,360
7,880
1,972
263
14,475
53,037
18,092
13,623
2,687
87,438
4,242
4,494
3,195
11,761
18,729
5,121
3,514
12,835
20,976
6,070
3,866
14,156
22,235
7,206
4,253
15,701
23,569
3,265
21,994
0
33,755
40,680
1,963
42,643
3,429
24,405
0
37,240
45,282
2,087
47,369
3,600
25,835
0
39,991
50,600
2,087
52,687
3,780
27,349
0
43,049
56,776
2,087
58,863
Dec-13A
11.3%
1.1%
20.4%
(1.20)
2.63
7.41
17.6%
36.4%
33.22
9.40
42.25
11.3%
11.6%
Dec-14F
12.5%
13.7%
20.6%
(1.35)
2.92
8.61
14.8%
30.9%
34.74
10.46
42.79
11.5%
12.2%
Dec-15F
13.5%
14.1%
20.8%
(1.45)
3.27
9.29
14.9%
32.1%
36.41
11.88
44.57
12.1%
13.0%
Dec-16F
13.2%
14.1%
20.9%
(1.51)
3.67
9.22
14.9%
32.6%
37.20
13.62
47.67
13.0%
14.0%
Dec-13A
9.2
5.7
70.0%
3.0
4,652.0
241.2
27.0%
Dec-14F
9.5
6.2
66.0%
3.0
5,777.0
209.8
28.0%
Dec-15F
10.3
6.8
69.0%
3.1
5,977.0
223.0
29.0%
Dec-16F
11.1
7.3
69.0%
3.1
6,177.0
237.4
30.0%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
10,334
Dec-14F
11,748
Dec-15F
13,403
Dec-16F
15,290
(824)
(1,024)
(898)
(729)
0
(957)
(1,392)
7,161
(7,041)
0
(327)
0
(7,369)
2,885
463
0
(3,098)
0
(969)
(1,383)
8,371
(7,338)
0
(261)
0
(7,599)
2,375
0
0
(3,131)
0
(1,058)
(1,645)
9,802
(7,056)
0
(339)
0
(7,395)
1,279
0
0
(3,866)
0
(1,251)
(1,920)
11,389
(7,566)
0
(250)
0
(7,816)
1,356
0
0
(4,592)
429
679
472
2,678
749
124
(632)
141
3,148
1,742
0
(2,587)
(180)
3,686
3,466
0
(3,236)
337
4,929
4,825
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Bumrungrad Hospital
Chularat Hospital
85
TransportTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Bangkok Metro
BMCL TB / BMCL.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,161m
US$12.18m
28.4%
THB38,130m
THB395.8m
20,500 m shares
Current
THB1.86
Target
THB1.14
Prev. Target
THB1.14
Up/Downside
-38.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Praphan YUKHUNTHORNTHAM
T (66) 2 657 9239
E praphan.yu@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-0.4
-5.5
68.3
Absolute
-1.6
-7.0
82.4
Major shareholders
% held
Ch. Kanchang
MRTA
BECL
30.2
14.6
10.0
Vol b
Price Close
159
1.20
116
0.70
3
2
2
1
1
73
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Consolidation mode
Besides clinching the deal to operate
the purple line until 2043, BMCL is
also interested to operate the blue line
extension (Tao Poon-Tha Phra & Hua
Lamphon-Bang Khae) whose civil
works are 60% completed. To enable
the commencement of the operations
of the blue line in late-2017, the
government must choose an operator
by 1H15. We think that BMCL is most
likely to clinch this contract. However,
the delayed listing of Bangkok Metro
Network (BMN) could dent its
earnings outlook. BMN's 9M14 net
profit came in at THB23.4m vs.
THB29.7m for 9M13.
Maintain Reduce
We see limited upside over the next 12
months as BMCLs share price has
outperformed the market and its
peers YTD. We think that this could
lead to share price downside risks in
the short term. We reiterate our
Reduce rating and target price of
THB1.14/share.
Financial Summary
1.70
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
1,979
543
(978.9)
(0.082)
(15%)
NA
0%
70.81
55.4
1664%
24.51
(70.3%)
Dec-13A
2,106
828
(774.0)
(0.048)
(42%)
NA
0%
46.87
NA
98%
4.39
(16.1%)
Dec-14F
2,314
1,036
(421.3)
(0.021)
(57%)
NA
0%
45.33
398.4
105%
4.62
(5.0%)
0%
0.82
Dec-15F
2,565
1,289
(975.8)
(0.048)
132%
NA
0%
37.10
125.3
131%
5.23
(12.6%)
0%
1.40
Dec-16F
3,133
1,833
(355.0)
(0.017)
(64%)
NA
0%
26.70
NA
153%
5.50
(5.0%)
0%
1.02
Bangkok MetroThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
2,528
1,068
828
-371
457
-1,229
0
9
-763
Dec-14F
2,772
1,298
1,036
-343
692
-1,123
0
9
-421
Dec-15F
3,067
1,578
1,289
-367
922
-1,908
0
10
-976
Dec-16F
3,683
2,179
1,833
-340
1,493
-1,858
0
10
-355
-763
-2
-421
0
-976
0
-355
0
-765
-9
-421
0
-976
0
-355
0
-774
-774
-774
-421
-421
-421
-976
-976
-976
-355
-355
-355
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
2,195
161
Dec-14F
1,996
151
Dec-15F
1,085
159
Dec-16F
422
175
55
2,411
17,905
0
7
36
17,948
0
33
557
117
707
10,740
60
2,207
17,767
0
1
36
17,804
0
40
568
102
710
10,700
65
1,309
17,600
0
1
36
17,637
6
48
569
102
724
10,652
76
674
18,360
0
1
36
18,397
505
481
569
102
1,657
10,171
101
10,841
55
11,603
8,683
73
8,756
224
10,924
43
11,677
8,261
73
8,335
163
10,815
49
11,588
7,286
73
7,359
193
10,364
46
12,067
6,931
73
7,004
Dec-13A
6.4%
53%
39.3%
-0.42
0.42
0.37
0%
NA
12.48
7.82
2.60%
2.48%
Dec-14F
9.8%
25%
44.8%
-0.43
0.40
0.92
0%
NA
12.28
8.40
3.97%
3.58%
Dec-15F
10.9%
24%
50.2%
-0.47
0.36
1.19
0%
NA
10.94
8.75
5.32%
4.95%
Dec-16F
22.1%
42%
58.5%
-0.52
0.34
1.93
0%
NA
10.38
8.78
8.68%
8.22%
Dec-15F
9.0%
2,565.2
334.6
81.6
36.4
39.5
9.7
Dec-16F
20.0%
3,133.0
371.4
88.2
37.1
42.3
10.6
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
828
Dec-14F
1,036
Dec-15F
1,289
Dec-16F
1,833
-19
13
-7
-16
-2,604
-1,229
2
-3,021
-216
0
0
180
-36
0
-753
0
296
-200
0
0
0
-200
0
-777
0
504
-200
0
0
0
-200
0
-774
0
1,043
-1,100
0
0
0
-1,100
8,550
-5,500
3,050
-7
-3,057
-1,828
-45
-45
51
96
849
-34
-34
271
304
1,082
-51
-51
-108
-57
717
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
Ridership growth
Farebox reveues
Advertising media services
Telecommunication services
Retail space leases
ATM and public telephone services
Commercial Development
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
Dec-12A
16.3%
1,979.3
188.1
58.3
16.6
25.5
2.2
Dec-13A
7.6%
2,106.4
274.0
70.0
35.0
34.5
8.0
Dec-14F
8.5%
2,313.6
301.4
75.6
35.7
36.9
8.8
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Bangkok Metro
Jan-12
BTS Group
Jan-13
ComfortDelGro
Jan-14
SMRT Corporation
87
Coal MiningThailand
December 12, 2014
Banpu
BANPU TB / BANP.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,005m
US$7.55m
49.0%
THB65,838m
THB245.0m
2,650 m shares
Current
THB25.50
Target
THB35.00
Prev. Target
THB35.00
Up/Downside
37.3%
Conviction|
Coal vs Power
CIMB Analyst(s)
While Banpu will face earnings pressure from weak coal prices, we
believe earnings will be strengthened by its power business that would
account for over 50% its profits in 2015-16. This should not only boost
but also sustain its earnings quality from secured power earnings.
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-6.1
-19.4
-32.5
Absolute
-7.3
-20.9
-18.4
Major shareholders
% held
8.3
4.4
3.6
Power drive
We believe that over the next three
years, Banpu will transform itself
from a coal-driven company to
power-driven company. Its three
drivers include the power plants in
Laos (COD in 2015-16), China (2017),
and the BLCP expansion in Thailand
(2018). When these three power
plants are completed, we estimate
that they could add THB6.1bn equity
income to Banpu by 2018 and
contribute THB6.5/shr in value to
Banpu from the total value of Banpus
assets of THB19/shr.
Investment in power
near-term
Banpu has announced that it plans to
take up a 30% stake in a 1,200MW
coal-fired power plant, which will
consume the coal produced from its
own Gaohes mine. We believe this is
the right strategic move to strengthen
its earnings portfolio in order to
balance the downside risk for its coal
earnings amid the weak coal price
environment.
Price Close
Financial Summary
36.0
111.0
34.0
102.7
32.0
94.3
30.0
86.0
28.0
77.7
26.0
69.3
24.0
80
61.0
60
Vol m
40
20
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Reserve (USD/tonne)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
117,314
8,441
3.30
(35.3%)
7.72
1.62
6.35%
6.09
4.89
7.6
77%
0.85
11.4%
Dec-13A
102,944
3,151
0.89
(72.9%)
28.87
1.08
4.24%
10.56
5.62
NA
112%
0.92
3.0%
Dec-14F
89,288
3,368
1.33
48.7%
19.42
0.97
3.82%
7.59
4.36
689.7
103%
0.89
4.7%
0%
0.97
Dec-15F
89,068
5,396
2.09
57.1%
12.20
1.23
4.81%
7.07
4.40
NA
94%
0.86
7.2%
0%
1.30
Dec-16F
94,413
9,755
3.78
80.8%
6.75
2.14
8.40%
4.94
3.94
5.5
72%
0.81
12.4%
0%
1.60
BanpuThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
102,944
30,033
14,768
(6,948)
7,820
(3,526)
2,909
1,334
8,537
0
8,537
(2,787)
Dec-14F
89,288
31,619
19,757
(10,914)
8,843
(4,169)
3,202
(374)
7,842
0
7,503
(664)
Dec-15F
89,068
32,405
20,697
(11,433)
9,264
(3,399)
3,983
(391)
9,797
0
9,458
(1,202)
Dec-16F
94,413
38,940
26,505
(12,146)
14,359
(2,817)
5,305
(342)
16,844
0
16,504
(2,636)
5,750
(2,599)
0
6,838
(3,471)
0
8,256
(2,859)
0
13,868
(4,113)
0
3,151
2,371
2,371
3,368
3,436
3,436
5,396
5,396
5,396
9,755
9,755
9,755
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
10,282
9,209
5,271
25,032
49,793
47,769
19,338
1,799
117,971
186,878
16,382
Dec-14F
7,359
10,653
2,917
25,032
45,961
47,224
22,540
1,460
116,237
187,460
8,000
Dec-15F
940
10,627
2,910
25,032
39,509
46,143
26,523
1,120
116,237
190,024
8,000
Dec-16F
8,351
11,264
3,085
24,909
47,609
44,912
31,828
781
108,026
185,547
2,000
2,309
22,053
40,745
89,574
2,683
22,053
32,736
90,514
2,677
22,053
32,730
81,474
2,837
22,053
26,890
80,754
21,293
110,867
0
151,612
73,557
11,503
85,059
21,293
111,807
0
144,543
73,905
14,973
88,878
21,293
102,767
0
135,496
76,204
17,832
94,036
22,225
102,978
0
129,869
81,342
21,945
103,287
Dec-13A
(12.2%)
(33.9%)
14.3%
(36.11)
27.76
2.01
32.6%
90.8%
33.62
28.80
13.26
3.69%
4.30%
Dec-14F
(13.3%)
33.8%
22.1%
(35.30)
28.62
1.95
8.9%
67.8%
40.60
25.91
15.80
4.02%
5.14%
Dec-15F
(0.2%)
4.8%
23.2%
(34.28)
29.51
2.38
12.7%
55.3%
43.60
18.77
17.26
4.30%
5.52%
Dec-16F
6.0%
28.1%
28.1%
(28.81)
31.50
4.25
16.0%
54.8%
42.43
19.78
18.19
6.63%
8.30%
Dec-13A
71.9
1.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
66.2
-0.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
66.1
-1.7%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
69.4
0.7%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
14,768
(2,909)
(246)
Dec-14F
19,757
(3,202)
1,283
Dec-15F
20,697
(3,983)
27
Dec-16F
26,505
(5,305)
(652)
7,278
(9,266)
(3,526)
(2,787)
3,312
(11,157)
0
(1,981)
504
(12,634)
6,129
0
0
(3,771)
(1,838)
970
(4,169)
(664)
12,137
(6,400)
0
0
0
(6,400)
(5,640)
0
0
(3,019)
(915)
879
(3,399)
(1,202)
12,103
(6,384)
0
0
0
(6,384)
(9,040)
0
0
(3,098)
11,376
(956)
(2,817)
(2,636)
25,515
(6,767)
0
0
0
(6,767)
(6,720)
0
0
(4,616)
(7,885)
(5,527)
(14,849)
(3,193)
(5,425)
0
(8,659)
(2,923)
97
10,453
0
(12,138)
(6,419)
(3,321)
9,756
0
(11,336)
7,411
12,028
22,204
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
ASP (US$/tonne)
Volume Growth (%)
Mining Cost (US$/tonne)
Fuel Cost (US$/tonne)
Total Cash Cost (US$/tonne)
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Adaro Energy
Jan-12
Banpu
Jan-13
Jan-14
Indo Tambangraya Megah
89
RetailThailand
December 12, 2014
Beauty Community
BEAUTY TB / BEAU.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$308.4m
US$1.29m
35.1%
THB10,125m
THB41.97m
300.0 m shares
Current
THB33.75
Target
THB37.50
Prev. Target
THB37.50
Up/Downside
11.1%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
13.7
24.2
44.4
Absolute
12.5
22.7
58.5
Major shareholders
% held
Mr.Suwin Kraiphubeth
Mrs.Thanyaporn Kraiphubeth
Mr.Pracha Damrongsuthipong
32.3
12.9
4.2
Price Close
151.0
32.0
133.5
27.0
116.0
22.0
98.5
17.0
15
81.0
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
periods of
FY14-15.
local
consumption
in
Financial Summary
37.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
770
233.9
173.4
0.58
0.0%
58.39
0.72
2.13%
40.08
NA
(76.2%)
10.26
Dec-13A
976
270.6
211.6
0.71
22.0%
47.85
0.65
1.93%
34.86
105.9
(69.0%)
10.09
21.3%
Dec-14F
1,372
374.2
291.5
0.97
37.7%
34.74
0.83
2.45%
25.38
55.5
(59.8%)
9.67
28.4%
1.03
Dec-15F
1,811
506.6
385.6
1.29
32.3%
26.26
1.09
3.24%
18.86
37.6
(51.5%)
9.16
35.8%
1.09
Dec-16F
2,250
661.1
481.8
1.61
25.0%
21.02
1.36
4.04%
14.79
28.3
(29.5%)
8.60
42.2%
1.10
Beauty CommunityThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-14F
1,372
926
374
(45)
329
0
0
26
355
Dec-15F
1,811
1,208
507
(63)
443
0
0
26
470
Dec-16F
2,250
1,485
661
(101)
561
0
0
26
587
355
(64)
470
(84)
587
(105)
291
386
482
291
291
291
386
386
386
482
482
482
(THBm)
Dec-12A
Total Cash And Equivalents
758
Total Debtors
12
Inventories
124
Total Other Current Assets
0
Total Current Assets
894
Fixed Assets
122
Total Investments
0
Intangible Assets
14
Total Other Non-Current Assets
49
Total Non-current Assets
185
Short-term Debt
0
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
1
Total Creditors
69
Other Current Liabilities
0
Total Current Liabilities
70
Total Long-term Debt
5
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
3
Total Non-current Liabilities
8
Total Provisions
14
Total Liabilities
92
Shareholders' Equity
987
Minority Interests
Total Equity
987
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
627
26
232
0
885
237
0
17
65
320
0
0
135
0
135
0
Dec-15F
569
35
314
0
917
311
0
20
65
396
0
0
182
0
182
0
Dec-16F
347
43
398
0
788
561
0
19
65
645
0
0
231
0
231
0
3
3
27
135
1,003
2
2
21
158
1,047
2
2
24
209
1,105
2
2
22
256
1,177
1,003
1,047
1,105
1,177
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
(30.2)
(27.1)
(42.6)
(43.7)
(55.7)
4.2
(45.6)
106.0
(50.1)
(469.7)
(16.6)
21.6
(53.2)
192.1
(67.1)
(64.1)
13.5
12.9
(63.7)
309.7
(125.5)
4.5
9.2
17.2
(84.3)
406.1
(137.5)
(2.2)
11.4
15.0
(105.3)
538.5
(350.0)
171.1
23.5
(496.3)
34.7
(96.5)
(6.3)
(127.3)
3.1
(136.6)
(1.6)
(180.5)
801.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
(195.0)
(247.8)
(327.7)
(409.5)
(2.4)
583.2
193.0
(390.2)
(390.2)
(6.8)
(201.8)
(106.2)
95.6
95.6
(0.3)
(248.1)
(65.7)
182.4
182.4
0.2
(327.6)
(58.0)
269.6
269.6
(0.1)
(409.6)
(51.5)
358.1
358.1
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Jan-12
Dec-14F
40.5%
38.3%
27.3%
2.09
3.49
N/A
17.9%
85%
6.95
166.8
98.2
96.5%
31.3%
Dec-15F
32.0%
35.4%
28.0%
1.90
3.68
N/A
17.9%
85%
6.18
165.1
96.0
100.0%
40.4%
Dec-16F
24.3%
30.5%
29.4%
1.16
3.92
N/A
17.9%
85%
6.36
170.1
98.9
99.6%
48.2%
Key Drivers
Jan-11
Dec-13A
26.8%
15.7%
27.7%
2.31
3.34
N/A
20.1%
92%
7.03
189.8
110.3
94.7%
23.4%
0.0
(215.8)
35.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
692
26
176
0
894
157
0
22
65
244
0
0
105
0
105
0
Jan-13
Jan-14
Beauty Community
91
TV - FTATHAILAND
December 12, 2014
BEC World
BEC TB / BEC.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,335m
US$2.97m
60.0%
THB109,500m
THB96.68m
2,000 m shares
Current
THB54.75
Target
THB52.00
Prev. Target
THB49.00
Up/Downside
-5.0%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
12.9
18.0
-8.8
Absolute
11.7
16.5
5.3
Major shareholders
% held
Maleenont Group
Nortrust Nominees Ltd.
51.0
8.8
A mild recovery
We expect BEC to recover its TV ad
revenue in FY15 on the back of the
economic recovery. We still believe
that BEC should be in a good position
to maintain its leadership in the TV
adex market vs. new players such as
RS, Work, etc. The viewership ratings
still suggest that BEC holds the mass
medium proposition, and should
therefore be able to maintain its TV ad
rate.
Price Close
102.5
53.0
90.0
48.0
77.5
43.0
8
65.0
6
Vol m
4
2
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Regulatory uncertainties
Although we believe that the NBTC
should waive additional regulatory
fees (4% of ad revenue) for BECs
simulcast of the analogue terrestrial
TV channel on the HD variety channel,
the legal dispute between BBTV and
the NBTC over BECs simulcast
exercise could be an overhang to the
NBTCs ability to waive the regulatory
fee charges for BEC.
Not attractive
BECs share price is trading at 19.5x
FY15 core P/E, which is on par with
its historical average core P/E of 20x.
We believe that BECs share price
could come under de-rating pressure
as the digital terrestrial TV landscape
has undermined BECs oligopolistic
privilege, its pricing power to raise its
ad rate and high profitability.
Financial Summary
58.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
14,866
8,096
4,777
2.26
34.2%
24.25
2.39
4.36%
12.85
28.03
(68.2%)
13.55
58.8%
Dec-13A
16,339
8,770
5,589
2.62
15.9%
20.93
2.79
5.10%
11.87
31.63
(61.2%)
12.41
61.9%
Dec-14F
15,502
8,694
5,075
2.39
(8.5%)
22.87
2.54
4.63%
11.93
NA
(62.5%)
11.68
52.6%
(10.5%)
1.07
Dec-15F
17,052
9,715
5,807
2.79
16.5%
19.63
2.90
5.30%
10.66
20.06
(60.4%)
10.91
57.5%
(7.7%)
1.16
Dec-16F
17,693
9,359
5,482
2.65
(5.0%)
20.66
2.74
5.01%
11.05
29.33
(59.4%)
10.29
51.2%
(6.7%)
0.99
BEC WorldThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-13A
16,339
10,716
8,770
(1,922)
6,847
(2)
0
358
7,203
0
7,203
(1,449)
Dec-14F
15,502
10,106
8,694
(2,488)
6,206
0
0
286
6,492
0
6,492
(1,277)
Dec-15F
17,052
10,896
9,715
(2,550)
7,164
0
0
229
7,394
0
7,394
(1,474)
Dec-16F
17,693
11,123
9,359
(2,574)
6,785
0
0
183
6,969
0
6,969
(1,396)
5,754
(165)
0
0
0
5,589
5,231
5,231
5,215
(140)
0
0
0
5,075
4,788
4,788
5,919
(112)
0
0
0
5,807
5,578
5,578
5,572
(90)
0
0
0
5,482
5,299
5,299
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
5,789
1,575
5
262
7,630
3,347
448
71
700
4,566
210
0
2,117
280
2,607
0
0
475
475
0
3,081
8,827
288
9,115
Dec-14F
6,192
1,177
1
262
7,631
8,994
448
71
700
10,213
0
0
7,183
280
7,463
0
0
475
475
0
7,938
9,376
530
9,906
Dec-15F
6,450
1,405
1
262
8,117
8,535
448
71
700
9,754
0
0
6,433
280
6,713
0
0
475
475
0
7,188
10,041
642
10,683
Dec-16F
6,755
1,238
1
262
8,256
7,856
448
71
700
9,074
0
0
5,199
280
5,478
0
0
475
475
0
5,953
10,645
732
11,377
Dec-13A
9.9%
8.3%
53.7%
2.79
4.41
2,899
20.1%
100.0%
29.89
0.20
44.67
173%
77.7%
Dec-14F
(5.1%)
(0.9%)
56.1%
3.10
4.69
N/A
19.7%
100.0%
30.24
0.19
49.53
122%
64.5%
Dec-15F
10.0%
11.7%
57.0%
3.22
5.02
N/A
19.9%
100.0%
25.67
0.05
35.08
134%
69.6%
Dec-16F
3.8%
(3.7%)
52.9%
3.38
5.32
N/A
20.0%
100.0%
25.44
0.05
34.28
111%
61.5%
Dec-13A
16.9%
N/A
N/A
91.5%
N/A
Dec-14F
-8.5%
N/A
N/A
94.4%
N/A
Dec-15F
10.3%
N/A
N/A
94.6%
N/A
Dec-16F
3.6%
N/A
N/A
94.4%
N/A
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
8,770
0
(415)
0
0
(482)
0
(1,563)
6,309
(2,475)
67
(649)
0
(3,057)
209
25
0
(4,900)
0
1,119
(3,547)
(295)
3,462
3,252
Dec-14F
8,694
0
344
0
0
(5,685)
0
(1,277)
2,076
(3,169)
0
0
0
(3,169)
0
0
0
(4,471)
0
(2,135)
(6,606)
(7,700)
(1,094)
(1,094)
Dec-15F
9,715
0
97
0
0
293
0
(1,474)
8,630
(3,172)
0
0
0
(3,172)
0
0
0
(5,142)
0
12
(5,130)
328
5,457
5,457
Dec-16F
9,359
0
17
0
0
(1,271)
0
(1,396)
6,709
(2,976)
0
0
0
(2,976)
0
0
0
(4,879)
0
1,740
(3,139)
594
3,733
3,733
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
BEC World
Jan-11
Jan-12
Major Cineplex Group
Jan-13
MCOT
Jan-14
VGI Global Media PCL
93
RetailThailand
December 12, 2014
Big C Supercentre
BIGC TB / BIGC.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$6,358m
US$1.49m
41.4%
THB208,725m
THB48.41m
825.0 m shares
Current
THB253.0
Target
THB212.0
Prev. Target
THB212.0
Up/Downside
-16.2%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
BIGC has been focusing mostly on its supply chain developments and
cost-saving initiatives. Its expansion has been slow with sluggish
topline growth due to softer domestic demand. In our view, cost
savings alone will not be sufficient to generate long-term growth.
1M
3M
12M
Relative
11.7
7.8
20.5
Absolute
10.5
6.3
34.6
Major shareholders
% held
Casino group
Thai NVDR
Chirathivat Family
58.6
7.6
8.0
Continued developments in
supply chain
With sluggish sales growth and the
shift of consumers preference away
from hypermarkets to convenient
stores, BIGC has focused on its supply
chain developments to reduce costs
and improve efficiency. This has paid
off with the achievement of margin
improvement in 2014, thus boosting
its earnings during a sales downturn.
After Mini Big C DC stores opened in
May and with fresh food DC stores to
open in 1Q15, we believe that BIGC
will benefit from margin uplifts in the
short term due to rebates received
from suppliers.
Slowdown in expansion
BIGC continues to be cautious with its
expansion plans. The company has
not yet revealed its expansion plans
for 2015 and its target to achieve 950
Mini Big C stores by 2016 has been
postponed indefinitely. As at end3Q14, there were 316 Mini Big C
stores and we reckon that this is yet to
reach the level required to attain
economies of scale to generate
positive EBIT.
136.0
260
128.5
240
121.0
220
113.5
200
106.0
180
98.5
160
3
91.0
Vol m
Financial Summary
280
1
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
123,733
12,547
6,074
7.47
14.2%
33.87
2.21
0.87%
18.01
NA
63.4%
6.55
21.9%
Dec-13A
130,971
13,161
6,976
8.46
13.2%
29.92
2.55
1.01%
17.35
404.2
52.9%
5.64
20.3%
Dec-14F
137,095
13,862
7,122
8.63
2.1%
29.31
2.59
1.02%
16.23
NA
38.7%
4.97
18.0%
0%
0.98
Dec-15F
149,284
15,141
8,156
9.89
14.5%
25.59
2.97
1.17%
14.55
38.0
24.2%
4.37
18.2%
0%
0.97
Dec-16F
163,411
16,703
9,166
11.11
12.4%
22.77
3.33
1.32%
12.92
37.2
12.9%
3.86
18.0%
0%
0.96
Big C SupercentreThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
130,971
30,481
13,161
-3,616
9,545
-1,053
0
0
8,492
0
8,492
-1,502
Dec-14F
137,095
32,536
13,862
-3,867
9,995
-1,074
0
0
8,921
0
8,921
-1,784
Dec-15F
149,284
35,286
15,141
-4,132
11,008
-793
0
0
10,215
0
10,215
-2,043
Dec-16F
163,411
38,448
16,703
-4,454
12,250
-770
0
0
11,480
0
11,480
-2,296
6,989
-14
7,137
-14
8,172
-16
9,184
-18
6,976
6,976
6,976
7,122
7,122
7,122
8,156
8,156
8,156
9,166
9,166
9,166
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
7,175
3,581
9,535
1,491
21,782
42,479
0
31,890
1,013
75,383
6,000
1,675
26,998
2,483
37,156
19,084
Dec-14F
2,826
3,707
10,026
1,491
18,050
44,981
0
31,521
1,013
77,515
0
1,675
28,073
2,483
32,231
17,409
Dec-15F
5,865
4,042
9,370
1,491
20,767
49,213
0
31,157
1,013
81,383
0
1,675
30,608
2,483
34,766
15,734
Dec-16F
8,731
4,431
10,271
1,491
24,924
53,120
0
30,796
1,013
84,929
0
1,675
33,552
2,483
37,710
14,059
3,886
22,970
0
60,126
37,019
19
37,038
3,886
21,295
0
53,527
42,005
34
42,038
3,886
19,620
0
54,386
47,714
50
47,764
3,886
17,945
0
55,655
54,130
67
54,198
Dec-13A
5.85%
4.9%
10.0%
-23.74
44.87
9.06
17.7%
30.2%
7.77
34.02
97.96
13.1%
15.3%
Dec-14F
4.68%
5.3%
10.1%
-19.71
50.91
8.72
20.0%
30.0%
9.70
34.14
96.12
13.2%
16.1%
Dec-15F
8.89%
9.2%
10.1%
-13.99
57.84
13.41
20.0%
30.0%
9.47
31.05
93.94
14.2%
17.5%
Dec-16F
9.46%
10.3%
10.2%
-8.49
65.61
14.78
20.0%
30.0%
9.49
28.76
93.96
15.5%
18.2%
Dec-13A
N/A
N/A
119
0.0%
N/A
N/A
278
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
N/A
123
0.0%
N/A
N/A
318
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
N/A
128
3.0%
N/A
N/A
568
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
133
2.0%
N/A
N/A
818
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
13,161
Dec-14F
13,862
Dec-15F
15,141
Dec-16F
16,703
-801
459
2,856
1,654
-1,053
-1,502
9,804
-7,363
0
0
316
-7,046
-2,241
0
-1,074
-1,784
11,463
-6,000
0
0
0
-6,000
-7,675
0
-793
-2,043
15,161
-8,000
0
0
0
-8,000
-1,675
0
-770
-2,296
15,292
-8,000
0
0
0
-8,000
-1,675
0
-2,104
-2,137
-2,447
-2,750
-18
-4,363
-1,606
516
3,811
0
-9,812
-4,349
-2,212
6,609
0
-4,122
3,039
5,486
7,982
-0
-4,425
2,867
5,617
8,120
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Big C Supercentre
Jan-12
CP All
Jan-13
Jan-14
Robinson Department Store
95
Public TransportationThailand
December 12, 2014
BTS Group
BTS TB / BTS.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,637m
US$14.10m
58.1%
THB119,416m
THB458.7m
11,919 m shares
Current
THB10.10
Target
THB11.00
Prev. Target
THB11.00
Up/Downside
8.9%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Besides benefiting from the nations mass rail transit (MRT) expansion,
BTS has also started to unlock its property assets i.e. JVs with Natural
Park (NPARK) and Sansiri (SIRI) which we think are positive moves.
Praphan YUKHUNTHORNTHAM
T (66) 2 657 9239
E praphan.yu@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-0.8
7.3
-1.3
Absolute
-2.0
5.8
Major shareholders
12.8
% held
41.7
6.5
4.6
Price Close
103.4
9.60
96.3
8.60
89.1
7.60
300
82.0
Vol m
200
100
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Accumulate
Financial Summary
10.60
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Mar-13A
5,585
3,164
1,719
0.14
48.6%
67.86
0.39
3.84%
41.17
NA
15.8%
2.48
4.04%
Mar-14A
8,115
2,698
12,645
0.15
6.6%
66.68
0.60
5.94%
36.46
3.88
(39.9%)
2.08
3.39%
Mar-15F
8,284
3,288
2,438
0.20
35.0%
49.39
0.62
6.18%
30.50
31.18
(38.2%)
2.11
4.24%
0%
0.96
Mar-16F
9,232
3,910
2,598
0.22
6.6%
46.34
0.67
6.65%
26.44
25.81
(36.1%)
2.23
4.68%
0%
0.96
Mar-17F
9,991
4,317
2,790
0.23
7.4%
43.14
0.29
2.87%
23.85
23.81
(38.1%)
2.24
5.18%
0%
0.93
BTS GroupThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Mar-14A
8,115
4,537
2,698
-511
2,187
582
619
13,972
17,361
0
17,361
-3,806
Mar-15F
8,284
4,945
3,288
-418
2,870
706
632
0
4,208
0
4,208
-842
Mar-16F
9,232
5,572
3,910
-463
3,447
390
704
0
4,541
0
4,541
-908
Mar-17F
9,991
6,115
4,317
-463
3,853
272
762
0
4,888
0
4,888
-978
13,555
-910
0
3,366
-929
0
3,633
-1,035
0
3,910
-1,120
0
12,645
1,805
1,805
2,438
2,438
2,438
2,598
2,598
2,598
2,790
2,790
2,790
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Mar-14A
32,165
1,074
2,581
1,407
37,227
15,085
20,182
79
4,185
39,530
3,618
Mar-15F
28,730
1,021
915
797
31,462
16,667
20,182
79
2,000
38,927
4,390
Mar-16F
26,176
1,064
1,003
888
29,131
16,903
20,182
79
2,000
39,164
4,004
Mar-17F
26,573
1,055
1,062
961
29,651
16,640
20,182
79
2,000
38,901
4,197
2,222
2,790
8,630
4,682
1,829
2,848
9,068
1,469
2,006
3,174
9,184
1,348
2,124
3,435
9,756
0
3,682
8,365
0
16,995
57,901
1,862
59,762
0
1,469
0
10,537
57,062
2,790
59,852
0
1,348
0
10,532
53,937
3,825
57,763
0
0
0
9,756
53,850
4,946
58,795
Mar-14A
45.3%
(14.7%)
33.3%
2.00
4.86
3.47
21.9%
33%
45.43
312
212.7
2.9%
5.19%
Mar-15F
2.1%
21.9%
39.7%
1.92
4.79
11.07
20.0%
171%
46.16
191
221.5
11.8%
5.73%
Mar-16F
11.4%
18.9%
42.4%
1.75
4.53
19.08
20.0%
183%
41.33
96
191.7
16.4%
6.24%
Mar-17F
8.2%
10.4%
43.2%
1.88
4.52
12.91
20.0%
73%
38.71
97
194.4
18.4%
7.02%
Mar-14A
6.5%
8.9%
N/A
N/A
Mar-15F
0.0%
8.0%
N/A
N/A
Mar-16F
0.0%
12.0%
N/A
N/A
Mar-17F
2.0%
9.0%
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Mar-14A
2,698
Mar-15F
3,288
Mar-16F
3,910
Mar-17F
4,317
43,803
1,995
280
256
89
-631
-3,806
42,153
-2,983
0
-19,804
15,823
-6,965
-4,194
3,542
0
-7,137
0
-259
-842
4,182
-418
0
0
2,538
2,120
-2,441
47
0
-6,726
0
-181
-908
3,101
-463
0
2,534
2,070
-507
5
0
-7,557
0
-298
-978
3,296
-463
0
0
3,378
2,915
-1,155
7
0
-5,500
-1,615
-9,404
25,784
30,994
35,819
-2,704
-11,825
-5,522
3,861
6,562
-9,832
-17,891
-12,720
4,664
5,352
-2,915
-9,563
-3,352
5,056
6,510
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-11
Jan-12
BTS Group
Jan-13
Jan-14
ComfortDelGro
Jan-15
SMRT Corporation
97
HospitalsThailand
December 12, 2014
Bumrungrad Hospital
BH TB / BH.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,163m
US$2.77m
39.2%
THB103,826m
THB90.19m
730.1 m shares
Current
THB142.5
Target
THB125.0
Prev. Target
THB125.0
Up/Downside
-12.3%
Conviction|
Painfully expensive
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
5.6
7.8
44.2
Absolute
4.4
6.3
58.3
Major shareholders
% held
23.9
14.7
8.7
Financial Summary
154
153.2
134
137.7
114
122.1
94
106.6
74
30
91.0
Vol m
20
10
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
82.00
125.0
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
12,856
3,028
2,558
2.70
24.1%
62.64
1.80
1.26%
34.00
21
(12.6%)
12.22
25.9%
Dec-13A
14,251
3,770
2,521
3.45
27.9%
48.98
1.90
1.33%
27.41
102
(7.4%)
10.84
27.8%
Dec-14F
15,391
4,167
2,817
3.86
11.8%
43.83
1.93
1.35%
24.68
64
(14.2%)
9.45
27.3%
0%
1.07
Dec-15F
16,930
4,585
3,124
4.28
10.9%
39.52
2.14
1.50%
22.53
NA
(8.8%)
8.28
26.5%
0%
1.01
Dec-16F
18,623
5,228
3,612
4.95
15.6%
34.19
2.47
1.74%
19.80
1,056
(6.6%)
7.24
26.8%
0%
1.01
Bumrungrad HospitalThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
14,251
6,297
3,770
(882)
2,887
6
6
247
3,146
0
3,146
(625)
0
2,521
0
0
Dec-14F
15,391
6,938
4,167
(935)
3,231
(70)
6
268
3,436
0
3,436
(618)
0
2,817
0
0
2,521
2,521
2,521
2,817
2,817
2,817
Dec-15F
16,930
7,585
4,585
(982)
3,603
(84)
7
284
3,810
0
3,810
(686)
0
3,124
0
0
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
18,623
8,250
5,228
(1,080)
4,148
(53)
8
302
4,405
0
4,405
(793)
0
3,612
0
0
3,124
3,124
3,124
3,612
3,612
3,612
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
5,857
1,307
305
83
7,551
9,096
236
189
180
9,701
0
Dec-14F
6,764
1,398
335
92
8,589
10,005
279
200
54
10,538
0
Dec-15F
4,646
1,496
368
92
6,603
12,006
329
200
54
12,589
0
Dec-16F
2,978
1,601
405
92
5,076
14,408
388
200
54
15,050
0
1,347
778
2,125
5,142
1,422
802
2,224
5,142
1,502
846
2,348
3,500
2,062
894
2,956
2,000
387
5,529
0
7,654
9,598
0
9,598
355
5,497
0
7,721
11,006
400
11,406
355
3,855
0
6,203
12,568
420
12,988
355
2,355
0
5,311
14,374
441
14,815
Dec-13A
10.8%
24.5%
26.5%
0.98
13.15
19.52
19.9%
39.7%
33.83
12.35
38.06
30.5%
21.6%
Dec-14F
8.0%
10.5%
27.1%
2.22
15.08
13.54
18.0%
36.9%
32.08
13.81
37.64
28.6%
21.7%
Dec-15F
10.0%
10.0%
27.1%
1.57
17.21
17.96
18.0%
36.9%
31.21
13.74
35.07
29.2%
22.5%
Dec-16F
10.0%
14.0%
28.1%
1.34
19.69
32.49
18.0%
36.9%
30.44
13.65
40.99
28.0%
25.4%
Dec-13A
1.2
13.1
65.7%
4.4
563.0
84.0
61.1%
Dec-14F
1.2
14.6
67.7%
4.5
563.0
84.8
60.0%
Dec-15F
1.2
16.2
69.7%
4.6
563.0
85.7
60.0%
Dec-16F
1.2
18.0
71.8%
4.7
563.0
86.5
59.0%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
3,770
Dec-14F
4,167
Dec-15F
4,585
Dec-16F
5,228
(87)
39
(7)
466
0
(148)
(625)
2,910
(1,727)
0
(158)
0
(1,885)
185
(0)
0
(1,387)
0
(239)
(618)
3,349
(474)
0
(982)
0
(1,456)
22
(0)
0
(1,409)
0
(201)
(686)
3,692
(1,600)
0
(1,025)
0
(2,625)
(1,642)
(0)
0
(1,562)
0
(128)
(793)
4,774
(2,026)
0
(1,131)
0
(3,157)
(1,500)
(0)
0
(1,806)
0
(1,202)
(177)
1,210
1,173
400
(986)
907
1,915
2,132
20
(3,185)
(2,118)
(576)
1,267
21
(3,285)
(1,668)
117
1,745
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Bumrungrad Hospital
Chularat Hospital
99
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Central Pattana
CPN TB / CPN.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$6,288m
US$5.85m
45.0%
THB206,448m
THB193.7m
4,488 m shares
Current
THB46.00
Target
THB61.00
Prev. Target
THB61.00
Up/Downside
32.6%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.7
0.2
-3.9
Absolute
-2.1
-3.2
7.6
Major shareholders
% held
26.2
5.75.7
4.5
Solid growth
Vol m
Price Close
111.4
45.0
103.6
40.0
95.8
35.0
25
20
15
10
5
88.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
CPNs
gearing
has
improved
significantly over the past few years,
falling from 1x in FY12 to 0.5x in 3Q14,
thanks to its successful fund raising
through property funds, lower
funding costs and improved core
business fundamentals. Undoubtedly,
CPNs 5-year business plan for
sustainable growth of 15% p.a. should
be well supported by its healthier
balance sheet and cash position.
Protected by potential
unlocking of value
Financial Summary
50.0
Dec-13
Dec-12A
16,762
7,845
6,189
2.03
114%
22.71
0.37
0.80%
15.50
NA
82.5%
3.87
19.0%
Dec-13A
19,913
9,610
6,293
1.40
(31%)
32.81
0.46
1.00%
23.35
NA
48.8%
5.61
20.1%
Dec-14F
22,663
11,126
7,252
1.58
13%
29.07
0.66
1.43%
20.25
119.6
45.8%
5.01
18.2%
0.127%
1.00
Dec-15F
26,884
13,289
8,534
1.87
18%
24.62
0.77
1.68%
17.10
20.0
44.8%
4.46
19.2%
0.109%
1.00
Dec-16F
31,228
15,377
9,644
2.12
13%
21.74
0.87
1.90%
14.89
20.5
43.3%
3.96
19.3%
0.095%
0.97
Central PattanaThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
19,913
9,372
9,610
(3,684)
5,926
(813)
686
1,796
7,595
Dec-14F
22,663
10,830
11,126
(4,179)
6,947
(799)
789
1,879
8,815
Dec-15F
26,884
12,974
13,289
(4,927)
8,362
(921)
868
2,113
10,422
Dec-16F
31,228
15,084
15,377
(5,733)
9,643
(1,128)
955
2,339
11,810
7,595
(1,206)
8,815
(1,605)
10,422
(1,911)
11,810
(2,171)
6,389
(97)
0
7,210
(108)
0
8,512
(128)
0
9,639
(145)
0
0
6,293
6,293
6,293
150
7,252
7,102
7,102
150
8,534
8,384
8,384
150
9,644
9,494
9,494
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-14F
733
Dec-15F
4,845
Dec-16F
7,533
3,630
0
0
5,499
2,353
56,932
11,584
1,171
72,040
900
5,154
9,083
322
15,458
13,788
4,759
0
0
5,492
2,706
60,381
17,037
1,825
81,949
400
3,924
9,593
483
14,399
15,288
5,646
0
0
10,491
3,112
64,040
18,059
1,880
87,091
400
4,424
10,170
580
15,573
20,788
6,558
0
0
14,091
3,547
67,921
19,143
1,932
92,543
400
5,424
10,773
696
17,292
24,288
11,313
25,101
155
40,715
36,824
16,407
31,695
156
46,250
41,191
14,789
35,577
105
51,256
46,326
12,816
37,104
111
54,507
52,128
36,824
41,191
46,326
52,128
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
9,610
Dec-14F
11,126
Dec-15F
13,289
Dec-16F
15,377
995
957
994
1,669
471
4,960
(813)
(1,188)
14,709
(9,629)
(180)
(114)
6,758
(799)
(1,763)
16,202
(14,396)
150
(202)
7,740
(921)
(2,084)
18,778
(14,586)
150
(267)
8,772
(1,128)
(2,362)
21,386
(15,971)
150
(9,809)
(8,304)
6,616
(14,246)
(230)
0
(14,436)
6,000
0
(15,821)
4,500
0
(2,070)
(2,944)
(3,465)
(3,915)
1,400
(2,357)
4,243
1,069
2,097
4,632
2,241
2,826
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Jan-11
Jan-12
Key Ratios
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,869
Jan-13
Jan-14
Central Pattana
Dec-13A
18.8%
22.5%
48.3%
(4.00)
8.20
7.29
15.9%
32.9%
17.01
21.83
64.4%
11.1%
Dec-14F
13.8%
15.8%
49.1%
(4.21)
9.18
8.69
18.2%
40.6%
20.85
19.78
74.4%
12.0%
Dec-15F
18.6%
19.4%
49.4%
(4.63)
10.32
9.08
18.3%
40.6%
20.18
19.68
51.5%
12.9%
Dec-16F
16.2%
15.7%
49.2%
(5.03)
11.61
8.55
18.4%
40.6%
20.43
20.03
53.7%
12.8%
101
HotelsThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,439m
US$2.22m
45.0%
THB47,250m
THB72.60m
1,350 m shares
Current
THB35.00
Target
THB38.50
Prev. Target
THB38.50
Up/Downside
10.0%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
1.2
-12.1
-12.7
Absolute
0.0
-13.6
1.4
Major shareholders
% held
Chirathivat family
45.0
An 8% increase in Revpar in
2015
Recovery in its Bangkok hotels should
help improve its overall occupancy
rate. About 28% of its hotel rooms are
in Bangkok, another 65% in the
upcountry and the remaining 7%
overseas.
We expect CENTELs hotel occupancy
rate to improve from about 73% in
2014 to 75% next year and its Revenue
per available room (Revpar) to rise to
8% next year from -6% in 2014.
Its gross margin on the hotel business
is also expected to increase from
about 34% in 2014 to 36% in 2015.
111.0
42.0
104.0
37.0
97.0
32.0
90.0
27.0
83.0
22.0
15
76.0
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
24.10
38.50
Current
Target
Financial Summary
47.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
14,504
3,732
1,596
0.85
108%
41.37
0.15
0.43%
15.88
191.4
120%
5.27
15.5%
Dec-13A
17,096
3,892
1,322
0.98
16%
35.74
0.59
1.69%
14.94
40.1
98%
4.57
13.7%
Dec-14F
17,616
3,486
1,145
0.85
(13%)
41.26
0.49
1.40%
16.58
185.6
90%
4.36
10.8%
0%
Dec-15F
19,231
4,239
1,773
1.31
55%
26.64
0.42
1.21%
13.47
70.1
75%
3.93
15.5%
0%
Dec-16F
21,142
4,734
2,144
1.59
21%
22.04
0.66
1.88%
12.09
55.8
70%
3.56
16.9%
0%
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
17,557
8,183
3,892
(1,578)
2,314
(507)
22
0
1,829
Dec-14F
18,109
8,068
3,486
(1,426)
2,060
(483)
63
0
1,640
Dec-15F
19,759
9,020
4,239
(1,458)
2,781
(455)
66
0
2,393
Dec-16F
21,707
9,966
4,734
(1,486)
3,248
(462)
69
0
2,855
1,829
(453)
1,640
(410)
2,393
(574)
2,855
(657)
1,377
(55)
1,230
(85)
1,818
(45)
2,199
(55)
1,322
1,322
1,322
1,145
1,145
1,145
1,773
1,773
1,773
2,144
2,144
2,144
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
742
978
615
129
2,463
24,339
899
774
737
26,748
2,262
1,433
2,401
323
6,418
7,943
0
3,489
11,431
210
18,060
10,344
807
11,152
Dec-14F
335
886
676
142
2,040
24,259
1,751
770
782
27,561
2,524
1,140
2,928
429
7,021
7,200
0
3,417
10,617
256
17,894
10,829
878
11,707
Dec-15F
436
897
744
149
2,226
24,868
1,836
768
831
28,303
2,901
1,340
3,194
446
7,881
6,000
0
3,347
9,347
287
17,515
12,029
985
13,014
Dec-16F
396
925
819
164
2,303
26,466
1,930
768
886
30,050
3,075
1,354
3,575
464
8,468
6,000
0
3,279
9,279
320
18,067
13,286
1,000
14,286
Dec-13A
17.9%
4.3%
22.8%
(8.07)
7.66
4.57
24.7%
54.3%
19.15
21.19
84.27
7.6%
10.2%
Dec-14F
3.0%
(10.4%)
19.8%
(7.80)
8.02
4.27
25.0%
51.9%
18.43
23.47
90.69
6.6%
9.0%
Dec-15F
9.2%
21.6%
22.0%
(7.26)
8.91
6.12
24.0%
29.1%
16.07
24.14
94.87
9.2%
12.1%
Dec-16F
9.9%
11.7%
22.4%
(7.43)
9.84
7.03
23.0%
37.2%
14.96
24.35
96.61
10.6%
13.4%
Dec-13A
80.0%
4,360.0
8,717
743
66
Dec-14F
73.0%
4,490.8
10,663
800
57
Dec-15F
75.0%
4,715.3
11,764
860
60
Dec-16F
76.0%
4,951.1
12,084
930
70
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
3,892
25
276
(48)
14
800
(507)
(453)
3,999
(2,063)
Dec-14F
3,486
(853)
360
116
4
(14)
(483)
(410)
2,207
(1,120)
Dec-15F
4,239
(85)
197
8
2
(84)
(455)
(574)
3,248
(1,809)
Dec-16F
4,734
(94)
252
8
(0)
(36)
(462)
(657)
3,744
(2,799)
(157)
(2,220)
(600)
0
(187)
(1,307)
(646)
0
(143)
(1,952)
(623)
0
(272)
(3,071)
174
0
(798)
(661)
(573)
(887)
(1,398)
381
1,179
2,286
(1,307)
(406)
255
1,383
(1,195)
101
674
1,751
(713)
(40)
847
1,135
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Central Plaza Hotel
Jan-12
Jan-13
Hotel Shilla
Jan-14
Minor International
103
ConstructionThailand
December 12, 2014
CH. Karnchang
CK TB / CK.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,341m
US$14.68m
60.3%
THB44,041m
THB477.3m
1,653 m shares
Current
THB26.00
Target
THB30.00
Prev. Target
THB30.00
Up/Downside
15.4%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.2
-5.7
30.3
Absolute
-1.0
-7.2
44.4
Major shareholders
% held
Trivisvavet family
Bangkok Bank
39.9
2.3
Price Close
139.3
22.0
119.9
17.0
100.4
12.0
200
81.0
150
Vol m
100
50
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
13.90
30.00
Current
Target
Improving earnings
visibility
Over the past five years or 20 quarters,
CK was in the red for five quarters. It
was largely due to volatile gross
margins and a high debt burden. We
believe that with benign building
material prices in 2015 and decent
margins, especially for overseas
projects, CK will be able to maintain
its double-digit gross margins over the
next couple of years.
Financial Summary
27.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
20,685
1,107
568
0.34
NA
75.60
0.35
1.35%
46.56
80.7
269%
5.23
7.8%
Dec-13A
32,570
2,529
7,674
0.57
66%
45.42
0.03
0.10%
20.74
NA
190%
2.60
7.6%
Dec-14F
32,896
2,529
2,194
1.31
129%
19.83
0.25
0.96%
20.88
37.1
183%
2.40
12.6%
0%
1.37
Dec-15F
31,251
2,491
2,139
1.26
(4%)
20.59
0.30
1.15%
21.92
211.6
180%
2.20
11.2%
0%
1.53
Dec-16F
34,376
2,713
2,330
1.38
9%
18.90
0.50
1.92%
20.72
124.1
188%
2.05
11.2%
0%
1.33
CH. KarnchangThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
32,570
3,337
2,529
(697)
1,832
(1,538)
5,357
444
6,095
3,150
9,245
(1,533)
0
7,712
(38)
0
Dec-14F
32,896
3,234
2,529
(550)
1,979
(2,131)
2,398
225
2,471
0
2,471
(247)
Dec-15F
31,251
3,064
2,491
(620)
1,871
(2,214)
2,513
240
2,410
0
2,410
(241)
Dec-16F
34,376
3,370
2,713
(620)
2,093
(2,415)
2,689
256
2,622
0
2,622
(262)
2,224
(30)
0
2,169
(30)
0
2,360
(30)
0
2,194
2,194
2,194
2,139
2,139
2,139
2,330
2,330
2,330
7,674
946
946
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
5,258
19,233
17,928
984
43,403
8,270
25,004
0
714
33,987
13,286
Dec-15F
4,403
21,156
19,698
1,034
46,291
9,097
26,251
0
790
36,137
12,358
Dec-16F
3,911
23,811
21,646
1,085
50,453
10,006
28,873
0
873
39,752
13,244
15,414
441
29,551
23,636
16,796
464
30,546
26,000
18,303
487
31,148
28,600
20,599
511
34,353
31,460
2,006
25,643
0
55,194
16,551
290
16,841
2,207
28,207
0
58,753
18,363
275
18,637
2,428
31,027
0
62,175
19,994
260
20,253
2,670
34,130
0
68,483
21,477
245
21,722
Dec-13A
57.5%
128%
7.77%
(19.33)
10.02
1.19
16.6%
0.6%
53.86
182.2
173.8
8.44%
4.02%
Dec-14F
1.0%
(0%)
7.69%
(20.09)
10.84
0.93
10.0%
15.6%
49.96
220.4
190.5
5.64%
3.53%
Dec-15F
(5.0%)
(2%)
7.97%
(21.58)
11.80
0.85
10.0%
19.2%
57.85
243.6
218.3
5.01%
3.14%
Dec-16F
10.0%
9%
7.89%
(24.08)
12.68
0.87
10.0%
29.4%
56.62
244.0
220.7
5.08%
3.28%
Dec-13A
107,050
32,781
22,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
83,929
33,121
30,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
92,438
31,491
40,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
97,806
34,632
40,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
2,529
Dec-14F
2,529
Dec-15F
2,491
Dec-16F
2,713
(6,714)
(579)
(2,201)
(3,570)
0
(1,538)
(1,533)
(7,256)
(3,515)
8,454
(7,200)
0
(2,261)
9,499
0
0
(41)
0
(2,131)
(247)
(427)
(1,302)
671
(1,779)
0
(2,410)
4,009
41
0
(423)
0
(2,214)
(241)
(2,165)
(1,447)
703
(795)
0
(1,538)
3,911
0
0
(508)
0
(2,415)
(262)
(3,535)
(1,530)
738
(2,117)
0
(2,909)
6,798
0
0
(847)
0
9,457
(60)
(19)
(7,979)
0
3,627
790
1,172
(706)
0
3,403
(300)
208
(1,489)
0
5,951
(492)
355
(4,028)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
(THBm)
Outstanding Orderbook
Order Book Depletion
Orderbook Replenishment
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.)
Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.)
ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv)
Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
5,393
16,911
17,894
937
41,136
7,518
22,734
0
646
30,899
13,696
Jan-11
CH. Karnchang
Jan-12
Jan-13
Italian-Thai Development
Jan-14
Sino-Thai Eng & Construction
105
HospitalsTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Chularat Hospital
CHG TB / CHG.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$623.2m
US$1.30m
35.4%
THB20,460m
THB42.09m
1,100 m shares
Current
THB18.60
Target
THB17.70
Prev. Target
THB17.70
Up/Downside
-4.8%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-4.4
12.2
71.9
Absolute
-5.6
10.7
86.0
Major shareholders
% held
Ms.Kannika Plussind
Mrs.Kobkul Panyapol
Mr.Abhirum Panyapol
18.1
11.2
10.3
CHG operates the largest hospital chain in the eastern part of Bangkok
and has the highest profit margin. This strongly reflects its competitive
strength while the recent amendments to Thailands Social Security
benefits should further boost its profitability. Moreover, it has the most
aggressive expansion plan, supported by its abundant cash in hand.
Despite our positive view on CHGs
growth in the long term, we believe its
share price is now demanding at 37x
FY15 P/E. As such, we maintain our
Reduce rating and DCF-based target
price of THB17.70 (WACC 7.40%,
LTG 3%). We prefer BGH, which
trades at a lower FY15 P/E of 31x, and
has comparable profit growth of
17-18% yoy.
Price Close
18.3
176
13.3
133
8.3
20
90
Vol m
10
5
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
EFAPChartPriceVolRelDaily|
Current
Target
Ongoing expansion
Given CHGs high IPD and OPD
occupancy rate of 70% (vs. 50-60% of
its peers), we have a positive view on
its expansion plan for future growth.
The company plans to expand its IPD
and OPD capacities by increasing the
number of beds from 386 at end-2013
to 687 by end-2017 (+78%) and OPD
examination rooms (+82%) from 87
rooms to 159 rooms by 2017.
Financial Summary
15
families,
factory
workers
and
employees of companies in industrial
estates.
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
1,863
530.0
336.1
0.51
(32.2%)
36.47
0.19
1.01%
22.84
47.8
(13.4%)
14.53
35.8%
Dec-13A
2,221
598.7
414.4
0.42
(17.9%)
44.43
0.23
1.25%
28.89
NA
(42.5%)
7.75
22.0%
Dec-14F
2,677
732.9
507.3
0.46
10.2%
40.33
0.26
1.42%
26.63
136.5
(33.1%)
7.16
18.5%
1.00
Dec-15F
3,130
857.0
591.4
0.54
16.6%
34.59
0.32
1.74%
23.56
32.2
(8.8%)
6.62
19.9%
1.01
Dec-16F
3,554
955.3
633.5
0.58
7.1%
32.30
0.38
2.02%
20.05
NA
(39.4%)
6.18
19.8%
0.93
Chularat HospitalThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-13A
2,221
886
599
(111)
488
19
0
13
519
Dec-14F
2,677
1,081
733
(120)
613
10
0
12
634
Dec-15F
3,130
1,264
857
(140)
717
10
0
12
739
Dec-16F
3,554
1,435
955
(189)
766
14
0
12
792
519
(105)
634
(127)
739
(148)
792
(158)
414
507
591
633
414
414
414
507
507
507
591
591
591
633
633
633
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
1,126
563
75
4
1,767
1,082
0
11
135
1,228
0
1
269
71
341
4
Dec-14F
990
670
84
5
1,748
1,449
0
10
135
1,594
41
3
300
81
424
1
Dec-15F
294
784
98
5
1,181
1,409
0
10
955
2,374
21
1
350
79
451
0
Dec-16F
1,337
890
111
6
2,344
2,120
0
10
135
2,265
31
0
398
84
513
0
0
4
11
356
2,639
47
48
15
487
2,856
0
0
13
465
3,092
773
773
14
1,300
3,312
2,639
2,856
3,092
3,312
Dec-13A
19.2%
13.0%
26.9%
1.02
2.40
256
20.2%
61.6%
23.85
19.17
68.54
39.4%
26.2%
Dec-14F
20.5%
22.4%
27.4%
0.86
2.60
2,111
20.0%
57.2%
22.25
18.16
65.02
32.1%
22.4%
Dec-15F
16.9%
16.9%
27.4%
0.25
2.81
4,347
20.0%
60.0%
22.12
17.78
63.58
29.1%
24.1%
Dec-16F
13.6%
11.5%
26.9%
1.19
3.01
15,491
20.0%
65.4%
22.48
18.08
64.62
21.7%
24.1%
Dec-13A
100,678.0
4,855.8
76.0%
N/A
386.0
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
125,573.9
5,584.4
75.0%
N/A
462.0
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
143,317.1
6,142.8
75.9%
N/A
517.0
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
158,475.3
6,450.0
74.0%
N/A
587.0
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
599
Dec-14F
733
Dec-15F
857
Dec-16F
955
(1)
14
(197)
(2)
(105)
309
(431)
0
4
16
(411)
22
(0)
(127)
626
(486)
0
0
10
(476)
1,353
23
(0)
(148)
738
(101)
0
0
(1)
(102)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
25
(0)
(158)
829
(900)
0
0
4
(895)
0
(255)
(290)
(355)
(414)
(103)
994
892
(102)
(100)
2
(288)
(138)
150
150
(4)
(360)
277
636
637
0
(414)
(481)
(67)
(67)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Chularat Hospital
107
RetailThailand
December 12, 2014
CP All
CPALL TB / CPAL.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$11,561m
US$16.28m
58.6%
THB379,536m
THB529.6m
8,983 m shares
Current
THB42.25
Target
THB54.50
Prev. Target
THB54.50
Up/Downside
29.0%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.6
-5.7
-13.5
Absolute
-0.6
-7.2
0.6
Major shareholders
% held
41.5
4.4
3.1
Short-term turbulence
Vol m
Price Close
101.4
41.0
90.7
36.0
50
40
30
20
10
80.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Stay invested
CPALL continues to be our favourite
retail stock due to its undeniable
leadership position within Thailands
retail industry. The stock is trading at
24.4x FY15 P/E, below its 5-year
average forward P/E of 30x. The
recent share price weakness presents
an opportunity to buy. We maintain
our Add rating.
Financial Summary
46.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
197,045
16,586
11,049
1.64
(8.0%)
25.77
0.90
2.13%
14.93
23
(128%)
14.00
45.5%
Dec-13A
284,120
19,779
10,537
1.17
(28.5%)
36.02
0.90
2.13%
27.46
60
483%
13.19
37.7%
Dec-14F
378,555
27,124
10,617
1.18
0.8%
35.75
0.59
1.40%
20.30
NA
434%
11.13
33.8%
0%
0.96
Dec-15F
431,209
34,302
15,572
1.73
46.7%
24.37
0.87
2.05%
15.88
67
347%
9.06
41.0%
0%
1.07
Dec-16F
487,693
41,308
18,697
2.08
20.1%
20.30
1.04
2.46%
13.00
1,171
274%
7.41
40.2%
0%
1.02
CP AllThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
284,120
74,275
19,779
-4,625
15,154
-1,736
0
-498
12,921
0
12,921
-2,292
Dec-14F
378,555
90,437
27,124
-6,346
20,778
-7,373
0
0
13,406
0
13,406
-2,681
Dec-15F
431,209
104,328
34,302
-6,935
27,367
-7,742
0
0
19,626
0
19,626
-3,925
Dec-16F
487,693
119,714
41,308
-7,401
33,907
-6,982
0
0
26,925
0
26,925
-8,077
10,628
-91
10,724
-107
15,700
-129
18,847
-151
10,537
10,537
10,537
10,617
10,617
10,617
15,572
15,572
15,572
18,697
18,697
18,697
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
25,682
848
19,916
7,516
53,963
71,606
125
161,013
1,959
234,703
135,143
Dec-14F
13,815
983
19,734
7,516
42,048
80,521
125
160,752
1,959
243,357
0
Dec-15F
11,675
1,117
22,389
7,516
42,698
86,827
125
160,511
1,959
249,422
0
Dec-16F
2,651
1,261
25,204
7,516
36,632
92,648
125
160,289
1,959
255,021
0
54,734
10,921
200,798
50,000
50,519
10,921
61,441
180,682
57,316
10,921
68,237
172,685
64,522
10,921
75,444
155,513
4,860
54,860
0
255,658
28,781
4,226
33,007
4,860
185,541
0
246,982
34,090
4,334
38,423
4,860
177,545
0
245,782
41,875
4,462
46,338
4,860
160,373
0
235,816
51,224
4,613
55,837
Dec-13A
44.2%
19.3%
6.96%
-17.75
3.20
7
17.7%
76.7%
0.89
25.28
75.94
(190%)
12.7%
Dec-14F
33.2%
37.1%
7.17%
-18.58
3.79
3
20.0%
50.0%
0.88
25.12
66.67
8%
9.6%
Dec-15F
13.9%
26.5%
7.95%
-17.92
4.66
3
20.0%
50.0%
0.89
23.52
60.21
10%
12.6%
Dec-16F
13.1%
20.4%
8.47%
-17.02
5.70
5
30.0%
50.0%
0.89
23.67
60.59
11%
15.8%
Dec-13A
N/A
N/A
7,429
5.7%
N/A
N/A
64
7.2%
Dec-14F
N/A
N/A
8,079
-2.0%
N/A
N/A
76
5.0%
Dec-15F
N/A
N/A
8,679
5.0%
N/A
N/A
84
6.0%
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
9,279
6.0%
N/A
N/A
92
6.0%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
19,779
Dec-14F
27,124
Dec-15F
34,302
Dec-16F
41,308
10,148
-4,168
4,008
4,247
-1,736
-2,292
25,900
-217,791
0
-7,373
-2,681
12,902
-15,000
0
-7,742
-3,925
26,643
-13,000
0
-6,982
-8,077
30,496
-13,000
0
13,052
-204,739
185,143
0
1,050
-13,950
-4,462
0
0
-13,000
-7,997
0
0
-13,000
-17,172
0
-8,085
-5,309
-7,786
-9,348
3,311
180,369
1,531
6,305
-176,625
-0
-9,770
-10,818
-5,509
6,571
0
-15,782
-2,140
5,646
21,523
0
-26,520
-9,024
324
24,595
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Big C Supercentre
Jan-12
CP All
Jan-13
Jan-14
Robinson Department Store
109
Technology ComponentsTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,926m
US$4.76m
36.9%
THB96,048m
THB155.6m
1,247 m shares
Current
THB77.00
Target
THB80.00
Prev. Target
THB80.00
Up/Downside
3.9%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Thanakorn CHONGSUKSIRICHOK
T (66) 2 657 9227
E thanakorn.ch@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
4.2
20.0
42.2
Absolute
3.0
18.5
56.3
Major shareholders
% held
27.7
20.0
Price Close
137.9
66.0
123.6
56.0
109.3
46.0
40
95.0
30
Vol m
20
10
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Potential acquisition to
support growth
Given Deltas strong net cash position,
we believe it will continue to seek
M&A opportunities to improve its
regional business, especially in the
alternative energy segment (2% of
revenue in 2013 to 10% in 2023). It
hopes to acquire an alternative energy
company with its own distribution
centre.
Not cheap
We think its recent price rally was due
to its surprise inclusion in the MSCI
Global Standard Indices. Delta is now
trading at 13.6x FY16 P/E or 1.7 s.d.
above its 5-year mean, which is not
cheap. Thus we maintain our Hold
rating.
Financial Summary
76.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
Price To Sales (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
40,779
4,347
3.57
51.8%
21.54
2.36
1.20
1.56%
16.47
20.07
(53.9%)
4.27
21.1%
Dec-13A
41,201
5,416
4.41
23.4%
17.46
2.33
2.40
3.12%
14.49
20.93
(56.4%)
3.79
23.0%
Dec-14F
46,712
5,652
4.72
7.1%
16.31
2.06
2.70
3.50%
12.29
20.62
(56.9%)
3.48
22.3%
(0%)
0.96
Dec-15F
49,873
6,529
5.30
12.3%
14.52
1.93
2.93
3.81%
10.84
17.50
(58.3%)
3.17
22.8%
(0%)
1.01
Dec-16F
52,580
7,078
5.74
8.3%
13.41
1.83
3.18
4.13%
9.90
15.81
(59.8%)
2.89
22.6%
0%
1.00
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-13A
41,201
11,752
5,642
(918)
4,724
131
18
610
5,569
Dec-14F
46,712
13,356
6,536
(976)
5,560
143
9
164
5,962
Dec-15F
49,873
14,561
7,230
(996)
6,234
163
6
205
6,694
Dec-16F
52,580
15,423
7,693
(1,016)
6,678
202
8
276
7,249
5,483
(67)
0
5,416
0
5,876
(71)
(153)
5,652
0
6,608
(79)
0
6,529
0
7,164
(86)
0
7,078
0
5,416
5,500
5,500
5,652
5,890
5,890
6,529
6,614
6,614
7,078
7,162
7,162
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
14,953
8,254
5,949
1,018
30,174
4,767
0
951
973
6,691
667
0
8,969
684
10,320
Dec-14F
16,245
8,384
6,259
852
31,739
5,520
0
951
489
6,960
533
0
9,041
389
9,963
Dec-15F
18,078
8,951
6,619
852
34,500
5,807
0
951
489
7,247
427
0
9,496
378
10,301
Dec-16F
20,189
9,437
6,959
852
37,436
6,094
0
951
489
7,534
341
0
9,895
365
10,601
1,183
1,183
36
11,539
25,326
1,133
1,133
0
11,097
27,601
1,150
1,150
0
11,451
30,294
1,155
1,155
0
11,756
33,210
25,326
27,601
30,294
33,210
Dec-13A
1.0%
10.7%
13.7%
11.45
20.30
76.52
1.23%
54.4%
67.69
70.74
106.1
43.0%
20.3%
Dec-14F
13.4%
15.9%
14.0%
12.60
22.13
66.45
1.20%
57.1%
65.00
66.79
98.5
46.1%
21.7%
Dec-15F
6.8%
10.6%
14.5%
14.15
24.29
78.22
1.20%
55.3%
63.44
66.55
95.8
48.5%
22.3%
Dec-16F
5.4%
6.4%
14.6%
15.91
26.62
88.75
1.20%
55.3%
64.00
66.87
95.5
49.0%
21.9%
Dec-13A
N/A
3.3%
N/A
N/A
N/A
3.6%
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
7.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
3.8%
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
9.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
4.3%
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
7.3%
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.9%
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
5,642
(18)
(885)
156
(1,346)
1,599
(131)
(67)
4,949
(571)
Dec-14F
6,536
(9)
(367)
0
1,118
(773)
(143)
(71)
6,292
(1,643)
Dec-15F
7,230
(6)
(473)
0
603
(568)
(163)
(79)
6,543
(1,198)
Dec-16F
7,693
(8)
(427)
0
632
(511)
(202)
(86)
7,091
(1,218)
206
(365)
5
143
(1,500)
(133)
250
(947)
(107)
286
(931)
(85)
(2,994)
(3,366)
(3,656)
(3,964)
0
(2,989)
1,596
4,589
4,522
0
(3,499)
1,292
4,658
4,706
0
(3,763)
1,833
5,490
5,515
0
(4,049)
2,111
6,074
6,084
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
KCE Electronics
Jan-14
SVI Public Company Limited
111
PowerThailand
December 12, 2014
Demco PCL
DEMCO TB / DEMC.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$303.9m
US$18.09m
70.5%
THB9,977m
THB589.9m
692.8 m shares
Current
THB14.40
Target
THB21.50
Prev. Target
THB21.50
Up/Downside
49.3%
Conviction|
Strong fundamentals
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-9.9
-6.2
68.2
Absolute
-11.1
-7.7
82.3
Major shareholders
% held
Mrs.Praphee Puipunthavong
Thai NVDR
Mr.Swart Puipunthavong
15.6
5.7
4.5
Price Close
192
10.2
135
5.2
400
78
300
Vol m
200
100
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
15.2
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
5,940
567.3
396.0
0.72
169%
18.16
0.25
1.70%
16.02
NA
62.1%
4.66
28.6%
Dec-13A
5,487
290.6
357.3
0.52
(28%)
25.10
0.08
0.53%
36.06
NA
16.1%
3.18
14.8%
Dec-14F
5,081
360.8
485.9
0.70
36%
20.53
0.16
1.11%
29.65
13.48
20.3%
2.81
14.5%
0%
1.07
Dec-15F
7,869
556.0
661.3
0.95
36%
15.09
0.20
1.39%
18.64
9.32
9.5%
2.45
17.3%
0%
1.01
Dec-16F
8,261
542.1
739.2
1.07
12%
13.50
0.24
1.67%
20.14
NA
20.2%
2.15
17.0%
0%
1.09
Demco PCLThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
5,487
679
291
(22)
268
(78)
169
49
408
0
408
(53)
Dec-14F
5,081
1,020
361
(8)
353
(32)
221
10
552
0
552
(66)
Dec-15F
7,869
1,578
556
(24)
532
(52)
268
10
759
0
759
(98)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
8,261
1,656
542
(67)
476
(38)
381
10
829
0
829
(89)
354
3
0
486
0
0
661
0
0
739
0
0
357
357
357
486
486
486
661
661
661
739
739
739
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
370
2,256
252
335
3,213
267
2,367
22
9
2,666
869
Dec-14F
1,048
2,256
211
311
3,826
431
2,367
22
9
2,830
400
Dec-15F
1,991
2,256
327
481
5,055
1,037
2,367
22
9
3,436
440
Dec-16F
1,160
2,421
344
505
4,430
2,051
2,367
22
9
4,449
484
1,273
547
2,689
5
779
506
1,685
1,368
1,206
784
2,431
1,936
1,267
823
2,574
1,615
50
55
0
2,744
3,134
1
3,135
50
1,418
0
3,104
3,551
1
3,552
50
1,986
0
4,417
4,074
1
4,074
50
1,665
0
4,239
4,640
1
4,640
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
291
169
226
Dec-14F
361
221
(469)
Dec-15F
556
268
419
Dec-16F
542
381
(106)
(11)
0
(78)
(69)
527
(70)
0
(1,070)
216
(925)
(415)
987
0
(69)
(210)
0
(32)
(73)
(204)
(172)
0
0
221
49
895
0
0
(69)
(258)
0
(52)
(109)
824
(630)
0
0
268
(362)
608
0
0
(139)
(371)
0
(38)
(99)
309
(1,080)
0
0
381
(699)
(277)
0
0
(173)
62
564
166
(813)
(320)
7
832
678
740
(115)
11
480
943
1,070
535
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Dec-13A
(7.6%)
(49%)
5.30%
(0.73)
4.52
3.45
13.1%
14.9%
146.5
17.36
82.80
13.0%
7.6%
Dec-14F
(7.4%)
24%
7.10%
(1.04)
5.13
8.91
12.0%
22.8%
162.1
20.82
92.22
21.4%
7.7%
Dec-15F
54.9%
54%
7.07%
(0.56)
5.88
7.34
12.9%
21.0%
104.6
15.63
57.59
21.8%
9.4%
Dec-16F
5.0%
(2%)
6.56%
(1.36)
6.70
6.07
10.8%
22.5%
103.6
18.60
68.53
17.8%
7.8%
Dec-13A
788.4
90.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-14F
1,576.8
180.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-15F
1,622.5
185.2
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-16F
2,673.7
305.2
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
10
(440)
(831)
(667)
(312)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Demco PCL
Jan-12
Jan-13
Energy Absolute
Jan-14
Gunkul Engineering
113
PowerThailand
December 12, 2014
Energy Absolute
EA TB / EA.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,954m
US$6.43m
33.2%
THB96,980m
THB210.0m
3,730 m shares
Current
THB26.00
Target
THB25.00
Prev. Target
THB25.00
Up/Downside
-3.8%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
5.2
9.4
210.9
Absolute
4.0
7.9
225.0
Major shareholders
% held
40.5
12.6
3.5
Although EAs 2014 results were undoubtedly solid, the 40% share
price run-up since our initiation in July leaves little room for upside.
Without additional growth from new solar capacity from the next
round of government bidding, we see greater downside risk given
potential project delays and its stretched valuation of 19x CY17 P/E.
We maintain our DCF-based target
price, which stays at THB25 (WACC
4.7%), our EPS forecasts and our
Reduce call given its rich valuation.
We believe its current price already
incorporates earnings growth from all
its solar and wind projects in its
pipeline. We also believe that EAs
chances of securing new solar and
wind farm capacities are low.
Financing risk
Switch to Gunkul
Vol m
Price Close
372
25.2
312
20.2
252
15.2
192
10.2
132
5.2
100
80
60
40
20
72
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
30.2
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
4,440
159
107
0.03
64%
761.8
0.01
0.03%
530.7
NA
99%
73.02
10.1%
Dec-13A
3,936
585
270
0.07
114%
335.6
0.02
0.06%
175.2
NA
103%
22.46
9.8%
Dec-14F
8,989
2,312
1,584
0.42
487%
61.8
0.06
0.21%
45.1
6.68
110%
16.68
31.0%
0%
1.03
Dec-15F
11,662
4,535
2,845
0.76
80%
34.4
0.20
0.76%
25.3
NA
191%
11.58
39.7%
0%
0.93
Dec-16F
14,723
6,939
4,228
1.13
49%
23.2
0.32
1.22%
16.8
6.73
150%
8.33
41.9%
0%
0.81
Energy AbsoluteThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
3,936
781
585
(302)
283
(62)
0
63
284
0
284
(15)
Dec-14F
8,989
2,537
2,312
(335)
1,977
(213)
0
94
1,858
0
1,858
(274)
Dec-15F
11,662
4,791
4,535
(808)
3,727
(453)
0
141
3,414
0
3,414
(388)
Dec-16F
14,723
7,234
6,939
(1,365)
5,574
(928)
0
211
4,857
0
4,857
(437)
269
1
0
1,584
0
0
3,027
(182)
0
4,420
(193)
0
270
270
270
1,584
1,584
1,584
2,845
2,845
2,845
4,228
4,228
4,228
Dec-13A
1,572
526
220
83
2,402
8,093
702
252
17
9,063
851
Dec-14F
16,207
526
212
191
17,136
12,857
702
0
17
13,576
1,200
Dec-15F
5,221
526
226
247
6,220
26,219
702
0
17
26,938
1,320
Dec-16F
19,024
526
246
312
20,108
32,034
702
0
17
32,753
1,452
151
874
1,877
5,225
177
1,996
3,372
21,466
188
2,589
4,097
20,422
205
3,268
4,926
35,809
2
5,226
0
7,103
4,360
3
4,363
2
21,468
0
24,840
5,869
3
5,872
2
20,424
0
24,521
8,452
185
8,637
2
35,810
0
40,736
11,747
377
12,125
Dec-13A
(11%)
268%
14.9%
(1.21)
1.17
4.59
5.2%
21.3%
32.10
22.06
12.58
10.1%
4.4%
Dec-14F
128%
295%
25.7%
(1.73)
1.57
8.09
14.7%
13.2%
21.37
12.23
9.28
19.4%
10.3%
Dec-15F
30%
96%
38.9%
(4.43)
2.27
4.80
11.4%
26.2%
16.47
11.64
9.70
25.6%
13.8%
Dec-16F
26%
53%
47.1%
(4.89)
3.15
5.40
9.0%
28.2%
13.08
11.54
9.61
18.2%
14.2%
Dec-13A
186.9
8.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-14F
975.3
98.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-15F
1,847.6
188.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-16F
4,002.6
434.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
585
0
389
Dec-14F
2,312
0
1,048
Dec-15F
4,535
0
534
Dec-16F
6,939
0
611
62
0
(62)
(27)
947
(6,498)
0
(590)
(164)
(7,252)
4,880
2,991
0
(75)
94
0
(213)
(318)
2,923
(5,100)
0
0
252
(4,848)
16,590
0
0
(75)
141
0
(453)
(495)
4,262
(14,170)
0
0
0
(14,170)
(924)
0
0
(261)
211
0
(928)
(628)
6,206
(7,180)
0
0
0
(7,180)
15,519
0
0
(933)
14
7,810
1,505
(1,425)
(6,244)
44
16,559
14,635
14,665
(1,680)
107
(1,078)
(10,986)
(10,832)
(9,131)
191
14,777
13,803
14,544
58
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Demco PCL
Jan-12
Jan-13
Energy Absolute
Jan-14
Gunkul Engineering
115
Market Cap
Free Float
US$748.5m
US$1.51m
44.0%
THB24,575m
THB49.10m
1,254 m shares
Current
THB19.60
Target
THB22.80
Prev. Target
THB22.80
Up/Downside
16.3%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Strong chicken export demand from Japan and lower feed costs fuelled
GFPTs growth in 2014, allowing GFPT and its partners to export more
chicken. Higher exports, industry growth and low feed cost should
extend the positive trend for its earnings outlook.
1M
3M
Relative
3.3
4.1
85.9
Absolute
2.1
2.6
100.0
Major shareholders
12M
% held
Sirimongkolkasem Sujin
Sirimongkolkasem Prasit
Sirimongkolkasem Virach
17.8
17.6
14.4
Promising outlook
GFPT has reaped the benefits of
Japans lifting of its ban on Thai
frozen chicken imports. Its export
volumes grew by 21% in 9M14, while
its partners chicken processing plants
showed 60% growth. Given that
Japan used to import up to 200,000
tonnes of frozen chicken from
Thailand annually, Thai export
volumes are projected to rise by 7% in
FY14 or by approximately 40k tonnes.
The growth for the industry remains
positive. According to Thai Broiler
Processing Exporters Association,
Thai export volumes are expected to
continue rising by 7% in FY16. Also,
management
expects
Thailands
exports of frozen chicken to Japan
Price Close
176
13.8
133
8.8
30
90
Vol m
20
10
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Undemanding price
GFPT appears cheap at 10x FY16 P/E
compared to its historical mean of
12x.
Financial Summary
18.8
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
Recurring ROE
% Change in Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
Dec-13A
Dec-14F
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
15,370
767
232
0.18
(81%)
107.18
0.00
0.00%
55.49
NA
0.00%
4.28
3.9%
16,699
2,018
1,503
1.20
549%
16.52
0.35
1.77%
14.77
13.96
0.00%
3.37
22.7%
18,136
2,290
1,933
1.54
29%
12.84
0.35
1.77%
12.50
25.61
0.00%
2.80
23.8%
19,580
2,696
2,226
1.78
15%
11.15
0.46
2.32%
10.42
14.33
0.00%
2.36
23.0%
21,156
2,877
2,382
1.90
7%
10.42
0.53
2.69%
9.36
13.57
0.00%
2.03
21.0%
1.01
1.03
1.07
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
16,699
2,803
1,705
(523)
1,183
(186)
221
312
1,529
0
1,529
(13)
Dec-14F
18,136
3,202
2,010
(559)
1,451
(174)
372
280
1,930
0
1,930
16
Dec-15F
19,580
3,702
2,416
(581)
1,835
(178)
385
280
2,322
0
2,322
(77)
Dec-16F
21,156
3,987
2,597
(601)
1,996
(183)
413
280
2,506
0
2,506
(105)
1,517
(14)
1,946
(13)
2,244
(18)
2,401
(19)
1,503
1,503
1,503
1,933
1,933
1,933
2,226
2,226
2,226
2,382
2,382
2,382
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
311
1,101
3,217
18
4,646
6,061
1,616
11
769
8,457
2,047
80
2,921
28
5,076
80
198
278
292
5,645
7,370
88
7,458
Dec-14F
256
1,142
3,992
12
5,402
6,302
1,616
41
698
8,657
2,000
0
1,050
1,526
4,576
80
Dec-15F
248
1,233
4,244
15
5,741
6,521
1,616
41
691
8,869
2,005
0
1,116
332
3,453
80
Dec-16F
1,132
1,332
4,590
13
7,068
6,720
1,616
41
676
9,053
2,012
0
1,207
26
3,246
80
170
250
281
5,107
8,851
101
8,952
173
253
287
3,994
10,497
119
10,616
161
241
284
3,771
12,212
138
12,350
Dec-15F
7.96%
20%
12.3%
(1.47)
8.37
10.29
3.34%
30.0%
22.14
94.67
24.90
18.3%
15.1%
Dec-16F
8.05%
8%
12.3%
(0.77)
9.74
10.90
4.18%
30.0%
22.19
94.16
24.76
16.8%
14.4%
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
1,705
221
786
Dec-14F
2,010
372
(688)
Dec-15F
2,416
385
(277)
Dec-16F
2,597
413
(354)
523
9
(186)
13
3,071
(1,031)
559
(633)
(174)
(16)
1,432
(800)
581
(859)
(178)
77
2,145
(800)
601
(963)
(183)
105
2,217
(800)
(261)
(1,292)
338
(462)
388
(412)
412
(388)
(451)
(580)
(668)
(572)
(1,022)
(53)
969
1,143
(1,160)
(1,740)
(7)
1,733
1,911
(277)
(945)
884
1,829
2,012
0
(1,752)
(1,752)
27
1,778
1,964
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Dec-13A
8.65%
251%
10.2%
(1.51)
5.88
6.37
0.82%
30.0%
22.99
97.57
25.66
11.2%
11.9%
Dec-14F
8.60%
18%
11.1%
(1.46)
7.06
8.36
0.00%
30.0%
22.57
88.10
24.09
17.8%
13.6%
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
QL Resources
117
IPPThailand
December 12, 2014
Glow Energy
GLOW TB / GLOW.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$4,044m
US$2.27m
30.0%
THB132,755m
THB73.83m
1,463 m shares
Current
THB90.75
Target
THB97.00
Prev. Target
THB97.00
Up/Downside
6.9%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-8.1
-1.2
12.8
Absolute
-9.3
-2.7
26.9
Major shareholders
% held
44.1
25.0
3.1
129.6
91.0
120.7
81.0
111.8
71.0
102.9
61.0
6
94.0
Vol m
4
2
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
period of time.
Switch to RATCH
We recommend a switch from GLOW
to RATCH given that: 1) RATCH has
superior growth momentum over the
next two years from its Hongsa
coal-fired power plant vs. GLOWs
lack of new capacity; and 2) RATCH
has a higher chance of winning more
capacity overseas, particularly the
countries neighbouring Thailand,
thanks to its solid ties with the
Electricity Generation Authority of
Thailand (EGAT).
Financial Summary
101.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
57,204
11,838
5,559
2.99
0.6%
32.28
2.11
2.19%
17.67
30.46
144%
3.84
12.3%
Dec-13A
69,207
17,614
7,214
5.61
87.7%
17.20
2.85
2.95%
11.77
NA
126%
3.48
21.2%
Dec-14F
72,599
20,737
9,311
6.36
13.4%
15.16
4.18
4.33%
9.57
23.38
87%
3.09
21.6%
0%
1.02
Dec-15F
73,290
20,544
9,890
6.76
6.2%
14.27
6.76
7.01%
9.28
19.38
62%
2.85
20.8%
0%
1.09
Dec-16F
74,941
20,492
10,424
7.13
5.4%
13.54
7.13
7.38%
9.07
17.39
49%
2.82
20.9%
0%
1.12
Glow EnergyThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
69,207
18,383
17,614
(4,869)
12,745
(3,321)
(0)
(506)
8,918
0
8,918
(1,031)
Dec-14F
72,599
21,826
20,737
(5,561)
15,176
(2,910)
(0)
1,169
13,435
0
13,435
(1,551)
Dec-15F
73,290
21,570
20,544
(5,561)
14,983
(2,475)
(0)
1,180
13,688
0
13,688
(1,589)
Dec-16F
74,941
21,541
20,492
(5,561)
14,931
(2,066)
(0)
1,207
14,072
0
14,072
(1,639)
7,887
(672)
0
11,884
(2,573)
0
12,100
(2,210)
0
12,433
(2,009)
0
7,214
8,209
8,209
9,311
9,311
9,311
9,890
9,890
9,890
10,424
10,424
10,424
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
5,760
12,999
5,522
1,166
25,446
97,301
2
0
2,257
99,560
10,711
Dec-14F
8,212
13,289
5,516
1,223
28,240
93,240
2
0
2,257
95,499
8,459
Dec-15F
9,875
13,289
5,619
1,234
30,017
89,179
2
0
2,257
91,438
8,099
Dec-16F
8,520
13,289
5,802
1,262
28,872
85,119
2
0
2,257
87,377
8,132
9,858
979
21,548
54,594
9,849
1,027
19,334
47,827
10,032
1,036
19,167
39,728
10,358
1,060
19,550
31,597
1,604
56,198
0
77,746
40,576
6,683
47,260
1,604
49,431
0
68,765
45,718
9,257
54,974
1,604
41,333
0
60,500
49,489
11,467
60,956
1,604
33,201
0
52,751
50,024
13,476
63,499
Dec-13A
21.0%
48.8%
25.5%
(40.70)
27.74
3.76
11.6%
57.8%
57.43
37.35
72.71
12.1%
11.1%
Dec-14F
4.9%
17.7%
28.6%
(32.86)
31.25
5.16
11.5%
65.7%
66.08
39.67
70.84
14.0%
13.6%
Dec-15F
1.0%
(0.9%)
28.0%
(25.94)
33.83
5.95
11.6%
100.0%
66.18
39.29
70.15
14.3%
13.7%
Dec-16F
2.3%
(0.3%)
27.3%
(21.33)
34.20
7.05
11.6%
100.0%
64.90
39.14
69.88
14.9%
14.1%
Dec-13A
21,357.9
3,187.6
76.5%
3.9%
14.1%
Dec-14F
22,589.5
3,187.6
80.9%
-0.6%
-2.8%
Dec-15F
22,185.2
3,187.6
79.5%
2.6%
5.2%
Dec-16F
22,185.2
3,187.6
79.5%
2.2%
3.3%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
17,614
Dec-14F
20,737
Dec-15F
20,544
79
Dec-16F
20,492
(5,801)
(303)
1,115
6,938
(3,321)
(2,038)
14,506
(8,338)
0
0
(661)
(8,999)
(9,516)
0
0
(3,148)
1,169
2,000
(2,910)
(2,135)
18,558
(2,500)
0
(1,000)
(0)
(3,500)
(9,020)
0
0
(4,169)
1,180
2,000
(2,475)
(2,086)
19,243
(2,500)
0
(1,000)
(0)
(3,500)
(8,459)
0
0
(6,118)
1,207
2,000
(2,066)
(2,055)
19,717
(2,500)
0
(1,000)
(0)
(3,500)
(8,099)
0
0
(9,890)
(80)
(12,744)
(7,236)
(4,008)
8,896
584
(12,605)
2,452
6,038
17,998
497
(14,080)
1,663
7,284
18,260
416
(17,572)
(1,355)
8,119
18,334
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
139
Key Drivers
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Glow Energy
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Ratchaburi Electricity
119
PowerThailand
December 12, 2014
Gunkul Engineering
GUNKUL TB / GUNK.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$804.1m
US$4.87m
35.3%
THB26,400m
THB158.6m
880.0 m shares
Current
THB30.00
Target
THB32.00
Prev. Target
THB32.00
Up/Downside
6.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
27.3
43.0
170.8
Absolute
26.1
41.5
184.9
Major shareholders
% held
GUNKUL grp
UOB Kay Hian
Yamaichi Intl. (HK)
60.0
4.6
2.3
An outperforming firm
Price Close
310
25.2
227
15.2
143
5.2
60
60
Vol m
40
20
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Buy on weakness
We believe that concerns about
possible negative reactions to WEH's
major shareholder have nothing to do
with Gunkul. So, we suggest investors
buy on weakness ahead of earnings
growth momentum in FY15-17.
Financial Summary
35.2
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
4,306
746
779.6
1.04
362%
27.49
0.07
0.23%
21.8
4,841
129%
6.63
28.9%
Dec-13A
2,025
131
882.9
0.36
(65%)
69.48
0.05
0.15%
156.0
NA
13%
6.95
9.8%
Dec-14F
3,121
508
601.9
0.68
88%
38.63
0.08
0.27%
52.1
6
(11%)
7.33
18.5%
0%
1.04
Dec-15F
4,653
800
728.8
0.82
21%
36.64
0.16
0.53%
37.7
NA
73%
6.24
18.4%
0%
1.00
Dec-16F
5,212
1,366
978.8
1.10
34%
27.28
0.28
0.93%
24.5
NA
127%
5.25
20.9%
0%
0.74
Gunkul EngineeringThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
2,025
457
131
(18)
114
(47)
150
826
1,042
0
1,042
(174)
Dec-14F
3,121
808
508
(38)
470
(63)
207
9
623
0
623
(79)
Dec-15F
4,653
1,205
800
(132)
668
(87)
216
9
806
0
806
(112)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
5,212
1,801
1,366
(357)
1,010
(203)
227
9
1,043
0
1,043
(125)
868
15
0
545
57
0
694
35
0
918
61
0
883
237
237
602
602
602
729
729
729
979
979
979
Dec-13A
225
532
351
215
1,323
658
1,270
1,058
272
3,257
405
Dec-14F
4,302
532
76
331
5,241
620
1,270
1,058
272
3,219
400
Dec-15F
2,753
532
113
494
3,892
4,988
1,270
1,058
272
7,587
440
Dec-16F
2,137
532
112
553
3,334
9,132
1,270
1,058
272
11,731
484
340
323
1,069
214
63
498
962
3,467
94
743
1,277
5,565
93
832
1,409
8,278
176
390
0
1,459
2,849
272
3,121
176
3,643
0
4,604
3,641
215
3,856
176
5,741
0
7,019
4,281
180
4,461
176
8,455
0
9,864
5,082
119
5,201
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
131
150
161
Dec-14F
508
207
57
Dec-15F
800
216
76
Dec-16F
1,366
227
30
4,862
(775)
(47)
(184)
4,298
(2,108)
0
(312)
337
(2,084)
(2,823)
220
0
(40)
(162)
0
(63)
(91)
456
(76)
0
0
207
131
3,247
230
0
(40)
12
0
(87)
(134)
883
(4,837)
0
0
216
(4,621)
2,139
0
0
(89)
(63)
0
(203)
(168)
1,189
(4,787)
0
0
227
(4,560)
2,757
0
0
(178)
71
(2,571)
(357)
(608)
2,262
13
3,450
4,037
3,834
654
22
2,071
(1,667)
(1,600)
(3,566)
43
2,623
(748)
(614)
(3,113)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Dec-13A
(53.0%)
(82%)
6.5%
(0.60)
4.32
2.40
16.7%
3.5%
162.3
88.82
142.1
2.0%
2.4%
Dec-14F
54.1%
287%
16.3%
0.49
4.09
6.98
12.6%
11.8%
62.2
33.68
31.8
15.5%
8.3%
Dec-15F
49.1%
58%
17.2%
(3.65)
4.81
3.87
13.9%
19.5%
41.7
10.02
8.4
23.0%
8.3%
Dec-16F
12.0%
71%
26.2%
(7.44)
5.71
3.91
12.0%
25.5%
37.3
12.10
10.1
12.2%
8.7%
Dec-13A
235.6
26.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-14F
507.2
57.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-15F
507.2
57.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Dec-16F
1,032.8
117.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.0%
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Demco PCL
Jan-12
Jan-13
Energy Absolute
Jan-14
Gunkul Engineering
121
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Hemaraj
HEMRAJ TB / HEMR.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,265m
US$5.05m
78.0%
THB41,538m
THB164.3m
9,709 m shares
Current
THB4.28
Target
THB4.63
Prev. Target
THB4.63
Up/Downside
8.1%
Conviction|
Upside limited
CIMB Analyst(s)
Given its weak presales and backlog, HEMRAJs outlook over FY15-16
seems unexciting. Moreover, we believe WHA Corps acquisition of at
least 50% stake HEMRAJ it is more value-accretive for WHA than for
the company in the near and longer term.
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-6.6
-2.5
24.0
Absolute
-7.8
-4.0
38.1
Major shareholders
% held
Horrungruang family
Credit Agricole (Suisse) SA
Nomura Singapore Limited
14.3
8.8
6.7
In a transition
Price Close
150.0
4.40
130.0
3.40
110.0
2.40
200
90.0
150
Vol m
100
50
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Not a place to be in
Financial Summary
5.40
Dec-13
Dec-12A
6,399
2,583
2,285
0.24
326%
18.18
0.07
1.63%
15.54
NA
81.7%
3.97
23.7%
Dec-13A
8,770
4,637
2,938
0.30
29%
14.14
0.17
3.97%
10.72
8.77
62.4%
3.07
24.5%
Dec-14F
7,406
3,322
3,066
0.32
4%
13.55
0.11
2.64%
12.64
NA
62.1%
2.68
21.1%
0%
0.93
Dec-15F
8,473
3,524
3,256
0.34
6%
12.76
0.14
3.22%
11.48
34.81
55.6%
2.39
19.8%
0%
0.94
Dec-16F
9,498
3,897
3,745
0.39
15%
11.10
0.17
3.86%
10.11
15.15
48.3%
2.12
20.3%
0%
0.97
HemarajThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
8,770
4,188
4,637
(353)
4,283
(332)
559
2,480
6,541
(1,400)
5,590
(504)
Dec-14F
7,406
3,636
3,322
(364)
2,958
(1,106)
1,350
220
3,736
0
3,423
(127)
Dec-15F
8,473
3,978
3,524
(375)
3,150
(1,128)
1,350
227
4,052
0
3,598
(122)
Dec-16F
9,498
4,457
3,897
(386)
3,511
(1,147)
1,500
233
4,657
0
4,097
(133)
5,086
(748)
0
3,296
(230)
0
3,476
(220)
0
3,965
(220)
0
(1,400)
2,938
2,938
2,938
3,066
3,066
3,066
3,256
3,256
3,256
3,745
3,745
3,745
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
2,289
Dec-15F
1,643
Dec-16F
1,333
169
11,138
1,660
17,748
1,494
13,875
0
318
15,686
1,509
178
12,059
93
14,618
1,780
14,908
0
594
17,283
855
186
13,393
93
15,314
2,076
15,266
0
594
17,936
812
195
14,622
93
16,243
2,380
15,641
0
594
18,616
771
408
3,138
5,055
12,419
327
1,750
2,932
11,798
327
1,750
2,889
11,208
327
1,750
2,848
10,648
1,303
13,722
0
18,778
13,532
1,125
14,657
476
12,274
0
15,206
15,501
1,194
16,695
476
11,684
0
14,573
17,417
1,260
18,677
476
11,124
0
13,972
19,560
1,326
20,886
Dec-13A
37.0%
42.3%
47.8%
(0.94)
1.39
5.88
9.02%
44.6%
7.03
819
71.88
43.6%
15.2%
Dec-14F
(15.5%)
(13.2%)
49.1%
(1.07)
1.60
3.69
3.71%
35.8%
8.55
1,123
35.57
29.1%
11.3%
Dec-15F
14.4%
9.4%
46.9%
(1.07)
1.79
4.00
3.39%
39.1%
7.83
1,033
26.54
28.5%
12.0%
Dec-16F
12.1%
12.0%
46.9%
(1.04)
2.01
4.46
3.24%
39.1%
7.34
1,017
23.73
28.5%
12.9%
Dec-13A
3,500.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
41.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13.0%
Dec-14F
3,500.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
41.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13.0%
Dec-15F
3,500.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
41.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13.0%
Dec-16F
3,500.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
41.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13.0%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
4,637
Dec-14F
3,322
Dec-15F
3,524
Dec-16F
3,897
(990)
(89)
(9)
(9)
966
(652)
(504)
3,456
(601)
0
(2,094)
(886)
(127)
126
(1,251)
0
(1,335)
(902)
(122)
1,158
(948)
0
1,118
(914)
(133)
3,960
(690)
0
(2,679)
1,373
(1,906)
3,187
0
0
(1,651)
725
1,373
847
(1,276)
0
0
(1,097)
244
1,373
669
(633)
0
0
(1,340)
(1,300)
1,373
(617)
(601)
0
0
(1,602)
0
1,537
(1,092)
(3,465)
(500)
(2,472)
(1,450)
(3,653)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
4,780
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
123
Ichitan Group
ICHI TB / ICHI.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$835.5m
US$4.89m
32.7%
THB27,430m
THB158.9m
1,000.0 m shares
Current
THB21.10
Target
THB26.70
Prev. Target
THB26.70
Up/Downside
26.5%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
ICHItan (ICHI) is the leader in the ready-to-drink (RTD) green tea market in
Thailand, thanks to its fast-growing sales. Now ICHI is ready for larger-scale
production, increase productivity and overseas expansion. We believe it will
achieve 22.2% revenue CAGR and 18.0% net profit CAGR in FY15-17.
1M
3M
Relative
-1.1
-13.4
Absolute
-2.3
-14.9
12M
Major shareholders
% held
Paskrontee Tan
Paskrontee Ing
Sukapantavorn Jaruvo
13.9
9.2
7.6
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
31.0
228
26.0
193
21.0
158
16.0
123
11.0
500
400
300
200
100
88
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
3,907
532
693
0.87
NA
25.63
0.00
0.00%
37.80
NA
220%
20.67
158%
Dec-13A
6,484
1,265
884
0.88
2.0%
25.12
0.00
0.00%
19.81
NA
145%
11.28
58%
Dec-14F
7,040
1,506
1,178
1.02
15.9%
21.67
0.45
2.04%
17.65
NA
17%
4.51
28%
0%
1.12
Dec-15F
9,844
1,610
1,158
0.89
(13.1%)
24.93
0.45
2.01%
18.23
26.18
7%
4.13
17%
0%
0.81
Dec-16F
12,174
2,106
1,677
1.29
44.9%
17.21
0.64
2.91%
13.44
17.44
(7%)
3.69
23%
0%
1.05
Ichitan GroupThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
6,484
2,326
1,265
(267)
998
(162)
0
47
884
Dec-14F
7,040
2,597
1,506
(299)
1,207
(81)
0
52
1,178
Dec-15F
9,844
2,988
1,610
(431)
1,179
(71)
0
50
1,158
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
12,174
3,445
2,106
(418)
1,688
(63)
0
51
1,677
884
0
1,178
0
1,158
0
1,677
0
884
0
1,178
0
1,158
0
1,677
0
884
884
884
1,178
1,178
1,178
1,158
1,158
1,158
1,677
1,677
1,677
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
1,650
805
423
101
2,980
7,353
0
3
566
7,922
356
233
400
497
1,486
2,118
Dec-15F
1,987
1,073
653
103
3,816
7,122
0
3
500
7,624
356
233
617
418
1,624
1,884
Dec-16F
2,801
1,306
832
102
5,040
6,904
0
3
278
7,185
356
233
785
457
1,832
1,651
1,008
3,359
0
4,573
1,968
897
3,014
0
4,500
6,401
952
2,836
0
4,460
6,980
924
2,575
0
4,407
7,819
1,968
6,401
6,980
7,819
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
1,265
Dec-14F
1,506
Dec-15F
1,610
Dec-16F
2,106
(399)
143
(288)
(239)
50
(71)
0
1,301
(200)
2
0
0
(198)
51
(63)
0
1,856
(200)
(1)
0
0
(201)
247
(162)
0
951
(1,370)
7
0
(129)
(1,493)
52
(81)
0
1,621
(2,550)
(3)
0
0
(2,553)
3,900
589
589
48
(542)
(380)
(1,401)
2,499
1,566
(933)
(852)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
(589)
(579)
(176)
(765)
337
1,102
1,173
(262)
(841)
814
1,655
1,717
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Jan-12
Dec-14F
9%
19%
21.4%
(0.81)
4.92
14.89
0.0%
50.0%
38.90
31.29
28.28
20.7%
17.2%
Dec-15F
40%
7%
16.4%
(0.37)
5.37
16.60
0.0%
50.0%
30.74
28.66
27.05
14.1%
12.7%
Dec-16F
24%
31%
17.3%
0.43
6.01
26.95
0.0%
50.0%
32.51
31.13
29.39
20.1%
17.3%
Dec-13A
N/A
89.2%
80.0%
N/A
28.0%
80.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
46.3%
80.0%
N/A
6.3%
85.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
65.3%
85.0%
N/A
5.9%
90.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
20.0%
85.0%
N/A
5.6%
95.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Drivers
Jan-11
Dec-13A
66%
138%
19.5%
(2.85)
1.97
6.17
0.0%
NA
35.85
34.78
32.83
23.6%
23.8%
30.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
84
907
338
104
1,434
5,102
0
3
2
5,107
356
231
289
339
1,214
2,351
Jan-13
Jan-14
Ichitan Group
125
PetrochemicalThailand
December 12, 2014
Indorama Ventures
IVL TB / IVL.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,182m
US$4.73m
35.0%
THB104,469m
THB153.8m
4,814 m shares
Current
THB21.70
Target
THB33.00
Prev. Target
THB33.00
Up/Downside
52.1%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-2.4
-20.3
-22.9
Absolute
-3.6
-21.8
-8.8
Major shareholders
% held
Indorama Resources
Public
66.0
34.0
Vol m
Price Close
117.0
28.0
109.5
26.0
102.0
24.0
94.5
22.0
87.0
20.0
79.5
18.0
100
80
60
40
20
72.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Upside underestimated
We believe the earnings upside from
the
M&A
deals
remain
underestimated by the market and
should be a key driver for its share
price over the next six months. The
concerns over funding for M&As are
overdone given IVLs recent success in
raising perpetual bonds worth
THB15bn to reduce its net debt to
equity to 0.8x, down from 1.3x.
Financial Summary
30.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
210,729
11,466
2,740
(0.25)
(111%)
NA
0.36
1.66%
15.79
NA
127%
1.75
(2.0%)
Dec-13A
229,120
10,920
1,327
(0.32)
27%
NA
0.30
1.40%
17.09
12.5
132%
1.73
(2.6%)
Dec-14F
308,373
14,766
3,379
0.70
NA
30.91
0.19
0.87%
12.64
NA
132%
1.68
5.5%
0%
0.90
Dec-15F
316,667
17,398
6,606
1.37
95%
15.81
0.37
1.71%
10.40
36.9
112%
1.54
10.2%
0%
1.19
Dec-16F
349,029
17,448
8,964
1.86
36%
11.65
0.50
2.32%
10.24
252.7
98%
1.40
12.6%
0%
1.21
Indorama VenturesThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-13A
229,120
23,693
10,920
(6,351)
4,569
(3,658)
(1,108)
1,318
1,121
1,690
2,811
(1,294)
Dec-14F
308,373
28,643
14,766
(8,073)
6,693
(2,026)
(615)
200
4,252
0
4,252
(425)
Dec-15F
316,667
30,065
17,398
(8,482)
8,916
(1,826)
393
400
7,883
0
7,883
(788)
Dec-16F
349,029
31,409
17,448
(6,973)
10,474
(1,626)
436
1,200
10,485
0
10,485
(1,049)
1,518
(191)
0
3,827
(448)
0
7,095
(489)
0
9,437
(472)
0
1,327
(1,543)
(1,543)
3,379
3,379
3,379
6,606
6,606
6,606
8,964
8,964
8,964
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
4,114
28,827
28,940
6,542
68,423
96,213
0
11,246
13,160
120,619
19,997
Dec-14F
1,952
35,463
33,921
6,542
77,878
93,577
0
0
24,406
117,983
19,997
Dec-15F
3,770
36,417
34,833
6,542
81,561
92,412
0
0
24,406
116,818
19,997
Dec-16F
2,201
40,138
38,393
6,542
87,274
92,952
0
0
24,406
117,358
19,997
25,663
7,320
52,980
65,259
30,837
9,361
60,196
64,087
31,667
9,345
61,008
60,087
34,903
9,310
64,210
56,085
9,235
74,494
0
127,474
60,506
1,062
61,568
9,235
73,322
0
133,518
62,259
84
62,343
9,235
69,322
0
130,330
67,851
198
68,049
9,235
65,320
0
129,530
74,833
269
75,102
Dec-13A
8.7%
(4.8%)
4.77%
(16.85)
12.57
1.20
46.0%
NA
43.36
47.64
42.62
2.66%
3.29%
Dec-14F
34.6%
35.2%
4.79%
(17.06)
12.93
2.09
10.0%
27%
38.05
41.01
36.86
3.52%
5.37%
Dec-15F
2.7%
17.8%
5.49%
(15.85)
14.09
2.97
10.0%
27%
41.43
43.78
39.80
4.64%
6.85%
Dec-16F
10.2%
0.3%
5.00%
(15.35)
15.54
3.74
10.0%
27%
40.14
42.19
38.35
5.46%
7.79%
Dec-13A
105.0
7.1%
1.7
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
105.0
0.0%
2.3
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
105.0
0.0%
2.0
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
105.0
0.0%
2.3
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
10,920
1,108
(2,467)
Dec-14F
14,766
615
(6,443)
Dec-15F
17,398
(393)
(1,037)
Dec-16F
17,448
(436)
(4,045)
1,905
3,870
(3,658)
(1,294)
10,384
(6,800)
0
0
83
(6,717)
4,662
0
0
(1,733)
(415)
0
(2,026)
(425)
6,072
(5,436)
0
0
0
(5,436)
(1,172)
0
0
(1,626)
793
0
(1,826)
(788)
14,148
(7,317)
0
0
0
(7,317)
(4,000)
0
0
(1,014)
1,637
0
(1,626)
(1,049)
11,929
(7,514)
0
0
0
(7,514)
(4,002)
0
0
(1,982)
(6,857)
(3,928)
(261)
8,329
7,478
0
(2,798)
(2,162)
(536)
3,840
0
(5,014)
1,817
2,831
9,836
0
(5,984)
(1,568)
413
7,220
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Indorama Ventures
Jan-13
Jan-14
127
Telco - OthersTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Intouch Holdings
INTUCH TB / INTU.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$7,496m
US$21.22m
55.0%
THB246,093m
THB690.1m
3,206 m shares
Current
THB76.75
Target
THB86.00
Prev. Target
THB86.00
Up/Downside
12.1%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
5.6
13.1
-14.1
Absolute
4.4
11.6
0.0
Major shareholders
% held
41.6
3.4
23.1
Shopping time
We are impressed by the companys
financial and professional discipline
in backing off from the competitive
bidding for the DTTV channel licence,
Price Close
101.2
72.0
91.4
67.0
81.7
62.0
80
72.0
60
Vol m
40
20
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
77.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
12,255
11,940
97.4%
12,010
3.75
29.7%
20.49
6.12
7.97%
19.41
21.69
(15.3%)
84%
Dec-13A
13,891
13,517
97.3%
13,571
4.23
13.0%
18.13
4.23
5.52%
17.15
17.68
(14.7%)
95%
Dec-14F
15,919
15,535
97.6%
15,604
4.87
15.0%
15.77
4.85
6.32%
14.92
15.79
(14.9%)
109%
0%
1.03
Dec-15F
18,795
18,411
98.0%
18,487
5.77
18.5%
13.31
5.73
7.46%
12.58
13.32
(15.6%)
129%
0%
1.07
Dec-16F
19,732
19,348
98.1%
19,421
6.06
5.0%
12.67
6.01
7.83%
11.97
12.67
(16.4%)
134%
0.95
Intouch HoldingsThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
13,891
13,891
13,517
(14)
13,502
(3)
0
71
13,571
0
13,571
0
0
13,571
0
0
Dec-14F
15,919
15,919
15,535
(13)
15,523
0
0
82
15,604
0
15,604
0
0
15,604
0
0
Dec-15F
18,795
18,795
18,411
(20)
18,391
0
0
97
18,487
0
18,487
0
0
18,487
0
0
Dec-16F
19,732
19,732
19,348
(29)
19,319
0
0
101
19,421
0
19,421
0
0
19,421
0
0
0
13,571
13,571
13,571
0
15,604
15,604
15,604
0
18,487
18,487
18,487
0
19,421
19,421
19,421
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
2,097
57
0
0
2,154
41
12,196
5
4
12,246
1
Dec-14F
2,130
57
0
0
2,187
57
12,196
5
4
12,262
1
Dec-15F
2,244
57
0
0
2,301
66
12,196
5
4
12,271
1
Dec-16F
2,384
57
0
0
2,441
67
12,196
5
4
12,272
1
100
0
100
1
100
0
100
1
100
0
100
1
100
0
100
1
52
53
0
153
14,246
0
14,246
52
53
0
153
14,296
0
14,296
52
53
0
153
14,419
0
14,419
52
53
0
153
14,560
0
14,560
Dec-13A
13.4%
13.2%
97.3%
0.65
4.44
5,277
0%
100%
0.41
N/A
N/A
(30566%)
95%
Dec-14F
14.6%
14.9%
97.6%
0.66
4.46
N/A
0%
100%
0.37
N/A
N/A
208358%
109%
Dec-15F
18.1%
18.5%
98.0%
0.70
4.50
N/A
0%
99%
0.32
N/A
N/A
76524%
128%
Dec-16F
5.0%
5.1%
98.1%
0.74
4.54
N/A
0%
99%
0.30
N/A
N/A
58382%
133%
Dec-13A
40.86
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
42.61
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
43.66
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
43.86
N/A
N/A
N/A
7.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
13,517
(13,891)
13,969
(54)
57
0
(3)
0
13,595
(29)
1
(62)
411
322
(1)
0
0
(13,573)
Dec-14F
15,535
(15,919)
15,919
13
69
0
0
0
15,617
(29)
0
0
0
(29)
0
0
0
(15,554)
Dec-15F
18,411
(18,795)
18,795
20
76
0
0
0
18,508
(29)
0
0
0
(29)
0
0
0
(18,364)
Dec-16F
19,348
(19,732)
19,732
29
73
0
0
0
19,449
(29)
0
0
0
(29)
0
0
0
(19,280)
(0)
(13,574)
343
13,916
13,919
(0)
(15,554)
33
15,588
15,588
0
(18,364)
114
18,478
18,478
0
(19,280)
140
19,420
19,420
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Intouch Holdings
Jan-14
Total Access Communication
129
ConstructionThailand
December 12, 2014
Italian-Thai Development
ITD TB / ITD.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,254m
US$26.19m
64.0%
THB41,183m
THB854.6m
4,860 m shares
Current
THB7.80
Target
THB5.25
Prev. Target
THB5.25
Up/Downside
-32.7%
Conviction|
Musical chairs
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
32.3
39.6
52.6
Absolute
31.1
38.1
66.7
Major shareholders
% held
Karnasuta family
34.1
Benign environment
Price Close
Financial Summary
8.80
164
7.80
147
6.80
131
5.80
114
4.80
97
3.80
81
2.80
600
64
Vol m
400
200
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
3.30
5.25
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
44,467
4,376
134.3
0.07
NA
104.7
0.00%
14.08
NA
383%
3.80
3.75%
Dec-13A
41,453
3,987
907.3
0.16
116%
48.4
0.050
0.64%
16.53
NA
319%
3.28
7.24%
Dec-14F
45,184
4,121
616.8
0.12
(25%)
64.1
0.050
0.64%
17.05
NA
263%
2.94
4.82%
0%
0.96
Dec-15F
49,702
4,220
736.5
0.14
15%
55.9
0.050
0.64%
17.47
NA
274%
2.84
5.16%
0%
0.84
Dec-16F
57,157
4,450
963.1
0.18
31%
42.8
0.050
0.64%
17.05
NA
282%
2.71
6.49%
0%
0.89
Italian-Thai DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
41,453
6,034
3,987
(1,978)
2,009
(2,009)
22
1,068
1,091
237
1,328
(336)
Dec-14F
45,184
6,169
4,121
(2,102)
2,019
(2,488)
0
1,354
884
0
884
(248)
Dec-15F
49,702
6,575
4,220
(2,102)
2,118
(2,635)
0
1,489
972
0
972
(194)
Dec-16F
57,157
7,246
4,450
(2,102)
2,348
(2,819)
0
1,712
1,241
0
1,241
(248)
992
(85)
0
637
(20)
0
778
(41)
0
993
(30)
0
907
730
730
617
617
617
737
737
737
963
963
963
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
1,786
28,651
3,859
3,606
37,903
16,008
11,343
0
4,155
31,506
25,506
Dec-15F
2,064
30,665
4,052
3,787
40,568
16,808
12,355
0
4,258
33,421
27,730
Dec-16F
2,050
33,193
4,255
3,976
43,474
17,649
13,480
0
4,365
35,493
30,227
9,693
0
35,441
15,704
10,372
0
35,878
16,467
11,098
0
38,828
17,446
11,875
0
42,102
18,256
1,622
17,326
0
52,767
11,554
829
12,383
1,784
18,251
0
54,130
14,025
1,254
15,279
1,963
19,409
0
58,237
14,497
1,254
15,751
2,159
20,415
0
62,517
15,197
1,254
16,451
Dec-13A
(6.8%)
(8.9%)
9.62%
(8.13)
2.38
1.00
25.3%
21.7%
81.85
39.34
100.1
4.19%
3.95%
Dec-14F
9.0%
3.4%
9.12%
(7.61)
2.66
0.81
28.0%
27.5%
77.86
35.25
93.9
3.75%
3.63%
Dec-15F
10.0%
2.4%
8.49%
(8.17)
2.75
0.80
20.0%
25.5%
74.32
33.48
90.9
3.69%
3.59%
Dec-16F
15.0%
5.4%
7.79%
(8.79)
2.88
0.83
20.0%
19.6%
68.04
30.46
84.2
3.87%
3.73%
Dec-13A
315,799
41,453
144,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
300,616
45,184
30,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
300,914
49,702
50,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
303,757
57,157
60,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
3,987
Dec-14F
4,121
Dec-15F
4,220
Dec-16F
4,450
(156)
203
(76)
75
0
(2,009)
(336)
1,716
(1,445)
0
(1,789)
(188)
(3,422)
(1,017)
2,000
0
(243)
0
(2,488)
(248)
1,230
(1,962)
0
(483)
(477)
(2,922)
(1,095)
2,118
0
(264)
0
(2,635)
(194)
1,593
(1,729)
0
(1,012)
(495)
(3,235)
1,414
0
0
(264)
0
(2,819)
(248)
1,307
(1,478)
0
(1,125)
(544)
(3,147)
1,328
0
0
(264)
621
1,362
(344)
(2,723)
303
778
1,536
(156)
(2,787)
796
770
1,920
278
(228)
993
762
1,826
(14)
(512)
979
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
(THBm)
Outstanding Orderbook
Order Book Depletion
Orderbook Replenishment
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.)
Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.)
ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv)
Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,942
26,362
3,676
3,435
35,414
15,246
10,436
0
4,055
29,737
25,747
Jan-11
CH. Karnchang
Jan-12
Jan-13
Italian-Thai Development
Jan-14
Sino-Thai Eng & Construction
131
Jasmine International
JAS TB / JAS.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,625m
US$26.24m
65.4%
THB53,355m
THB853.2m
7,137 m shares
Current
THB7.60
Target
THB9.50
Prev. Target
THB9.50
Up/Downside
24.9%
Conviction|
Dont miss it
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
1.2
6.3
-15.4
Absolute
0.0
4.8
-1.3
Major shareholders
% held
23.4
6.7
2.6
We are confident that Jasmines share price will rally massively in the
next three months on the back of 1) IFF listing progress, 2) more
aggressive capital management, and 3) the negligible impact of AISs
entry into the FBB market. We maintain our estimates, DCF-based
target price (10% WACC) and Add rating.
Given the IFFs THB30bn-65bn size,
the listing should add 11-38% to our
target price. We also expect Jasmine
to improve its disclosure policy and
corporate governance, using the deal
road show as an opportunity to
commit to the investment community.
If it can deliver on both counts, we
expect its share price to rally and its
foreign holding to rebound to 35-40%
vs. below 30% currently.
Improving corporate
governance?
We believe market forces will work to
compel Jasmine to improve its
corporate governance, especially its
disclosure. This will be an important
milestone that should revive its
Price Close
94.3
6.70
77.1
5.70
1000
800
600
400
200
60.0
Vol m
111.4
7.70
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
8.70
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
10,369
4,842
46.7%
2,137
0.29
106%
26.45
0.09
1.22%
12.00
97.46
21.2%
26.3%
Dec-13A
11,123
5,778
52.0%
3,003
0.42
45%
18.08
0.25
3.29%
9.71
21.84
3.2%
29.9%
Dec-14F
13,121
7,223
55.0%
3,482
0.53
26%
14.44
0.32
4.15%
7.45
15.07
(10.4%)
30.7%
0%
0.97
Dec-15F
14,856
8,487
57.1%
4,643
0.65
24%
11.68
0.39
5.14%
6.00
12.08
(26.3%)
32.5%
0%
1.09
Dec-16F
16,297
9,412
57.8%
5,255
0.74
13%
10.32
0.44
5.81%
5.09
9.35
(38.7%)
31.4%
0%
1.04
Jasmine InternationalThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
11,123
8,548
5,778
(1,900)
3,878
(216)
0
35
3,697
(15)
3,682
(605)
0
3,077
(74)
0
Dec-14F
13,121
10,316
7,223
(2,443)
4,780
(280)
0
40
4,540
(274)
4,266
(784)
0
3,482
0
0
0
3,003
3,000
3,000
Dec-15F
14,856
11,834
8,487
(2,723)
5,764
(185)
0
38
5,617
0
5,617
(974)
0
4,643
0
0
0
3,482
3,756
3,756
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
16,297
13,139
9,412
(2,785)
6,626
(150)
0
36
6,512
0
6,512
(1,257)
0
5,255
0
0
0
4,643
4,643
4,643
0
5,255
5,255
5,255
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
3,857
3,765
40
598
8,260
12,904
145
106
319
13,474
1,905
Dec-14F
5,132
5,183
105
598
11,019
11,593
145
106
319
12,162
293
Dec-15F
7,197
5,592
126
598
13,513
10,869
145
106
319
11,439
212
Dec-16F
10,077
5,942
146
598
16,764
10,079
145
106
319
10,648
399
3,818
945
6,667
2,352
4,170
945
5,408
3,363
4,359
945
5,516
2,634
4,477
945
5,821
2,321
245
2,597
0
9,264
11,391
1,078
12,469
245
3,608
0
9,015
13,089
1,078
14,167
245
2,879
0
8,395
15,479
1,078
16,557
245
2,566
0
8,387
17,948
1,078
19,026
Dec-13A
7.3%
19.3%
52.0%
(0.06)
1.60
12.44
16.4%
59.1%
132.8
6.27
375.1
25.9%
25.7%
Dec-14F
18.0%
25.0%
55.0%
0.21
1.83
17.07
18.4%
60.0%
124.5
9.41
334.6
29.5%
27.7%
Dec-15F
13.2%
17.5%
57.1%
0.61
2.17
31.21
17.3%
60.0%
132.4
13.95
314.5
36.1%
31.0%
Dec-16F
9.7%
10.9%
57.8%
1.03
2.51
44.04
19.3%
60.0%
129.5
15.76
320.0
43.1%
32.2%
Dec-13A
N/A
N/A
1.42
N/A
N/A
N/A
19
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
N/A
1.65
N/A
N/A
N/A
18
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
N/A
1.82
N/A
N/A
N/A
18
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
1.99
N/A
N/A
N/A
18
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-12A
4,842
45
Dec-13A
5,778
Dec-14F
7,223
Dec-15F
8,487
Dec-16F
9,412
(324)
(235)
(249)
171
630
(404)
(498)
4,616
(1,421)
30
(410)
6
(1,795)
(2,256)
0
(299)
(202)
595
(312)
(600)
5,633
(1,730)
7
67
90
(1,566)
(1,584)
(8)
0
(671)
306
(280)
(784)
6,141
(1,940)
0
0
0
(1,940)
(601)
14
0
(1,784)
209
(185)
(974)
7,303
(2,004)
0
0
0
(2,004)
(809)
13
0
(2,254)
174
(150)
(1,257)
7,929
(1,999)
0
0
0
(1,999)
(126)
12
0
(2,786)
(167)
(2,923)
(103)
565
3,225
(286)
(2,548)
1,519
2,483
4,379
(280)
(2,652)
1,549
3,600
4,481
(185)
(3,234)
2,065
4,490
5,484
(150)
(3,050)
2,881
5,805
6,081
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jasmine International
Jan-12
Jan-13
Samart I-Mobile
Jan-14
Thaicom
133
RetailThailand
December 12, 2014
Jubilee Enterprise
JUBILE TB / JUBI.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$191.1m
US$0.08m
47.6%
THB6,274m
THB2.71m
174.3 m shares
Current
THB36.00
Target
THB42.00
Prev. Target
THB42.00
Up/Downside
16.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-4.1
-3.1
35.9
Absolute
-5.3
-4.6
50.0
Major shareholders
% held
Mr.Viroj Pornprakit
Ms.Suvattana Tulayapisitchai
Mr.Montchai Leesirikul
41.5
7.0
4.0
Competitive advantage
Price Close
173
40.0
157
35.0
141
30.0
125
25.0
109
20.0
800
93
600
Vol th
400
200
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Swift rebound
Financial Summary
45.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
1,226
218.9
166.2
0.96
26.3%
37.42
0.59
1.63%
27.85
97.17
(24.9%)
12.50
35.6%
Dec-13A
1,462
263.9
202.8
1.17
21.3%
30.85
0.45
1.24%
22.91
58.32
(33.8%)
10.02
36.0%
Dec-14F
1,798
296.1
223.2
1.28
9.8%
28.11
0.77
2.13%
20.92
80.29
(11.1%)
8.77
33.3%
0.99
Dec-15F
2,392
424.2
318.9
1.83
42.9%
19.67
1.10
3.05%
14.51
27.45
(13.9%)
7.44
40.9%
1.06
Dec-16F
3,263
571.9
436.6
2.51
36.9%
14.37
1.50
4.18%
10.85
29.48
(6.7%)
6.17
46.9%
1.00
Jubilee EnterpriseThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
1,462
631
264
(13)
251
(1)
0
3
254
Dec-14F
1,798
746
296
(21)
275
0
0
4
279
Dec-15F
2,392
1,016
424
(30)
395
0
0
4
399
Dec-16F
3,263
1,387
572
(30)
542
0
0
4
546
254
(51)
279
(56)
399
(80)
546
(109)
203
223
319
437
203
203
203
223
223
223
319
319
319
437
437
437
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
83
94
720
8
904
120
0
3
25
147
0
0
279
46
324
0
3
8
12
0
336
715
Dec-15F
121
118
867
10
1,116
127
0
3
25
154
0
0
364
47
412
0
3
12
15
0
427
843
Dec-16F
71
161
1,182
14
1,429
125
0
3
25
152
0
0
497
48
545
0
3
15
19
0
564
1,017
715
843
1,017
Dec-13A
19.2%
20.5%
18.0%
1.21
3.59
479.6
20.0%
38.5%
20.08
229.4
96.67
52.7%
44.3%
Dec-14F
22.9%
12.2%
16.5%
0.46
4.10
N/A
20.0%
60.0%
18.04
223.1
95.06
52.0%
40.8%
Dec-15F
33.0%
43.2%
17.7%
0.67
4.84
N/A
20.0%
60.0%
16.14
210.6
85.29
49.0%
50.4%
Dec-16F
36.4%
34.8%
17.5%
0.39
5.84
N/A
20.0%
60.0%
15.64
199.8
83.99
58.8%
58.0%
Dec-13A
N/A
N/A
108
17.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
N/A
130
15.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
N/A
165
14.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
200
14.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
626
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
263.9
Dec-14F
296.1
Dec-15F
424.2
Dec-16F
571.9
(1.6)
(154.9)
(84.2)
(224.9)
(8.7)
(0.5)
(50.7)
202.4
(35.0)
(10.2)
(66.9)
17.0
(95.1)
4.0
0.0
(55.8)
89.4
(76.8)
(7.8)
75.0
(1.7)
(11.3)
4.0
0.0
(79.7)
264.2
(28.0)
(8.5)
0.0
0.9
(35.6)
4.0
0.0
(109.2)
241.8
(28.0)
(0.6)
0.0
(0.4)
(29.1)
0.5
0.0
0.0
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
0.0
(78.0)
(133.9)
(191.3)
(261.9)
(9.8)
(87.3)
20.0
107.3
107.8
(1.3)
(135.3)
(57.1)
78.1
78.1
0.7
(190.7)
37.9
228.6
228.6
(0.3)
(262.3)
(49.5)
212.8
212.8
Key Drivers
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
215
84
565
6
871
56
0
3
25
83
0
0
269
47
317
0
3
8
12
0
328
626
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jubilee Enterprise
135
BanksThailand
December 12, 2014
Kasikornbank
KBANK TB / KBAN.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$17,641m
US$31.19m
85.0%
THB579,169m
THB1,015m
2,393 m shares
Current
THB242.0
Target
THB274.0
Prev. Target
THB240.0
Up/Downside
13.2%
Conviction|
Beautiful as she is
CIMB Analyst(s)
Weerapat WONK-URAI
T (66) 2 657 9224
E weerapat.wo@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
4.2
4.0
31.7
Absolute
3.0
2.5
45.8
Major shareholders
% held
Lamsam family
4.0
Resilient growth
Key investment theme for FY15 is a
play on cross-border trade and SME
customers who are involved in
government investment projects. Its
sizable SME portfolio of 38% will
propel its FY15 loan growth to 10%,
according to our estimate. The bank
will be less impacted by the stretched
household debt (vs. SCB), as retail
loans account for only 26% of
KBANKs portfolio. We expect
non-interest income growth of 17%
which will be boosted by its
cross-selling
efforts
and
hefty
insurance business income, driven by
the
successful
K-Transformation
project which will enhance its sales
force capabilities. We are not worried
about its future operating expenses as
the project is nearly complete.
Price Close
125.1
180
109.1
130
20
93.0
15
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Outlook
KBANK is expected to sustain
resilient growth in both lending and
non-lending businesses. Amid weak
domestic consumption, KBANK plans
to target banking demand in
Thailands border provinces such as
Udon Thani, Nakhon Phanom and
Tak. It has built up strong banking
networks in these markets which will
enable it to capture market share.
Also, the banks financial targets for
FY15 are not beyond achievable given
the
current
macroeconomic
conditions. KBANK manages its
net-interest margin well by not
sacrificing loan yields to create alpha
lending growth. It plans to keep its
credit cost at 100bp in FY15, and build
up an NPL buffer. As such, its
loan-loss-reserve ratio will inch up to
169.5%.
Financial Summary
230
Dec-13
Dec-12A
63,581
40,724
104,305
(8,390)
35,260
14.73
45.5%
16.43
3.00
1.24%
77.3
3.13
20.8%
Dec-13A
72,797
48,153
120,950
(11,743)
41,325
17.27
17.2%
14.02
3.50
1.45%
91.6
2.64
20.4%
Dec-14F
78,210
55,422
133,632
(13,424)
46,286
19.34
12.0%
12.51
3.87
1.60%
104.8
2.31
19.7%
(3.37%)
1.00
Dec-15F
84,522
64,871
149,393
(16,503)
50,931
21.28
10.0%
11.37
4.26
1.76%
120.9
2.00
18.9%
(7.08%)
0.98
Dec-16F
91,638
74,315
165,952
(18,154)
56,272
23.51
10.5%
10.29
4.70
1.94%
138.6
1.75
18.1%
(8.95%)
0.94
KasikornbankThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
72,797
48,153
120,950
(52,903)
68,047
(11,743)
56,303
0
56,303
0
56,303
Dec-14F
78,210
55,422
133,632
(57,729)
75,903
(13,424)
62,479
0
62,479
0
62,479
Dec-15F
84,522
64,871
149,393
(64,372)
85,020
(16,503)
68,517
0
68,517
0
68,517
Dec-16F
91,638
74,315
165,952
(72,362)
93,590
(18,154)
75,437
0
75,437
0
75,437
56,303
(11,457)
62,479
(12,496)
68,517
(13,703)
75,437
(15,087)
44,847
(3,522)
0
0
41,325
41,325
49,984
(3,698)
0
0
46,286
46,286
54,813
(3,883)
0
0
50,931
50,931
60,349
(4,077)
0
0
56,272
56,272
(THBm)
Total Gross Loans
Liquid Assets & Invst. (Current)
Other Int. Earning Assets
Total Gross Int. Earning Assets
Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve
Total Net Interest Earning Assets
Intangible Assets
Other Non-Interest Earning Assets
Total Non-Interest Earning Assets
Cash And Marketable Securities
Long-term Investments
Total Assets
Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank Deposits
Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others
Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank's Liabilities Under Acceptances
Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-14F
95.5%
94.9%
32.0%
34.1%
61.8%
83.5%
19.3%
66.8%
0.89%
0.57%
0.290%
Dec-15F
96.4%
95.9%
31.4%
33.4%
62.4%
84.8%
20.2%
67.5%
1.00%
0.64%
0.361%
Dec-16F
97.3%
96.9%
30.3%
32.1%
64.0%
87.6%
21.0%
69.2%
1.00%
0.66%
0.368%
Dec-15F
1,973,658
542,264
Dec-16F
2,160,812
553,109
2,141,756
(45,099)
2,096,656
0
152,779
152,779
40,610
0
2,290,045
1,529,835
167,403
93,315
1,790,553
3,196
259,288
2,053,038
219,232
17,775
237,007
2,312,376
(51,643)
2,260,733
0
161,307
161,307
36,536
0
2,458,577
1,644,573
174,099
96,108
1,914,779
3,516
269,983
2,188,278
250,923
19,375
270,298
2,515,922
(58,886)
2,457,037
0
173,328
173,328
43,701
0
2,674,066
1,792,584
175,840
103,451
2,071,876
3,867
287,948
2,363,691
289,256
21,119
310,375
2,713,922
(66,852)
2,647,069
0
186,303
186,303
34,806
0
2,868,179
1,953,917
140,672
105,339
2,199,928
4,254
309,381
2,513,563
331,596
23,019
354,616
Dec-13A
16.0%
18.6%
14.9%
60.2%
1.93%
5.18%
3.25%
4.98%
5.07%
17.3%
3.33%
20.3%
15.9%
Dec-14F
10.5%
11.5%
11.0%
58.5%
1.88%
5.07%
3.20%
4.93%
4.97%
17.7%
3.29%
20.0%
15.7%
Dec-15F
11.8%
12.0%
9.7%
56.6%
1.91%
5.08%
3.17%
4.92%
4.90%
19.4%
3.29%
20.0%
15.8%
Dec-16F
11.1%
10.1%
10.1%
55.2%
1.96%
5.11%
3.15%
4.89%
4.83%
19.4%
3.31%
20.0%
15.8%
Dec-13A
8.5%
3.5%
18.2%
43.7%
2.2%
140.8%
0.0%
12.0%
15.2%
10.0%
91.3%
2.2%
20.3%
Dec-14F
8.9%
3.5%
15.1%
43.2%
2.0%
163.5%
0.0%
12.8%
16.1%
7.5%
92.3%
2.0%
12.5%
Dec-15F
10.1%
3.5%
17.0%
43.1%
2.0%
169.5%
0.0%
13.5%
16.8%
9.0%
93.1%
2.0%
17.6%
Dec-16F
10.0%
3.5%
14.6%
43.6%
2.0%
174.9%
0.0%
14.1%
17.4%
9.0%
93.9%
2.0%
13.6%
Key Drivers
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
Jan-11
Dec-14F
1,793,463
518,913
Key Ratios
0.00
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,645,188
496,567
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Bangkok Bank
Kasikornbank
137
Technology ComponentsThailand
December 12, 2014
KCE Electronics
KCE TB / KCE.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$666.4m
US$1.80m
56.6%
THB21,878m
THB58.62m
549.0 m shares
Current
THB38.75
Target
THB49.00
Prev. Target
THB45.00
Up/Downside
26.5%
Conviction|
Promising future
CIMB Analyst(s)
We expect KCE to post 23.5% EPS CAGR during FY14-16 given 1) solid
demand growth in automotive PCB products, and 2) market share
gains via competitive pricing and the sale of prepreg and copper clad
laminate outside the KCE group.
Thanakorn CHONGSUKSIRICHOK
T (66) 2 657 9227
E thanakorn.ch@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-4.3
-4.0
74.0
Absolute
-5.5
-5.5
Major shareholders
88.1
% held
Ongkosit Family
HSBC (Singapore) Nominees PTE Ltd.
Mr. Panja Senadisai
33.8
6.5
4.7
New technology
KCEs new factory in Lad Krabang
will commence operations in 1Q15
and we assume total capacity will
Price Close
209
43.0
189
38.0
169
33.0
149
28.0
129
23.0
109
18.0
15
89
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
48.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
Price To Sales (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
6,478
643
1.38
378%
28.79
2.90
0.55
1.38%
36.22
23.82
166%
6.12
23.3%
Dec-13A
9,294
1,173
2.49
80%
15.98
2.04
0.75
1.89%
13.87
NA
108%
4.67
33.1%
Dec-14F
11,036
1,780
3.43
38%
11.59
1.87
0.85
2.14%
10.73
17.02
77%
3.77
35.7%
0%
1.10
Dec-15F
13,051
2,090
3.75
9%
10.61
1.70
1.00
2.52%
9.36
53.09
52%
3.00
31.5%
0%
1.03
Dec-16F
14,477
2,587
4.64
24%
8.57
1.53
1.10
2.77%
7.47
15.85
29%
2.36
30.8%
0%
1.08
KCE ElectronicsThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
9,294
2,956
1,681
(529)
1,152
(171)
13
203
1,210
Dec-14F
11,036
4,039
2,351
(563)
1,788
(176)
0
200
1,812
Dec-15F
13,051
4,651
2,785
(671)
2,114
(185)
0
196
2,125
Dec-16F
14,477
5,247
3,336
(759)
2,577
(165)
0
217
2,629
1,198
(16)
1,812
(24)
2,125
(28)
2,629
(34)
1,181
(8)
1,788
(8)
2,098
(8)
2,595
(8)
0
1,173
1,185
1,185
0
1,780
1,780
1,780
0
2,090
2,090
2,090
0
2,587
2,587
2,587
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
402
3,216
1,345
502
5,466
5,343
99
276
98
5,816
3,220
849
2,173
4
6,246
779
80
859
39
7,144
4,091
20
4,110
Dec-14F
1,181
3,449
1,428
64
6,122
6,696
0
0
98
6,795
3,016
793
1,170
4
4,982
1,939
Dec-15F
1,107
4,079
1,714
64
6,963
6,689
0
0
98
6,787
3,118
976
1,270
4
5,368
870
Dec-16F
1,928
4,524
1,887
64
8,403
7,200
0
0
98
7,299
3,067
1,042
1,535
4
5,648
515
84
2,023
0
7,005
5,886
28
5,914
92
962
0
6,330
7,387
36
7,423
101
617
0
6,265
9,395
44
9,439
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-12A
658
3
1,257
0
466
(805)
159
(90)
1,648
(950)
Dec-13A
1,681
(13)
(1,156)
0
1,186
278
171
(16)
2,131
(1,622)
Dec-14F
2,351
0
(387)
0
925
(523)
176
(24)
2,518
(2,300)
Dec-15F
2,785
0
(814)
0
715
(640)
185
(28)
2,202
(1,000)
Dec-16F
3,336
0
(354)
0
806
(681)
165
(34)
3,238
(1,500)
(202)
(1,152)
292
(8)
6
(1,616)
(679)
87
99
(2,201)
896
0
0
(1,000)
(785)
0
0
(1,500)
(339)
0
(142)
(278)
(434)
(492)
(578)
(777)
(634)
(138)
788
337
361
(509)
5
(165)
344
0
(1,276)
(74)
418
1,018
0
(918)
821
1,399
1,573
0
463
779
1,213
141
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Dec-13A
43.5%
155%
18.1%
(9.25)
8.51
6.82
1.4%
23.4%
102.4
74.44
67.17
14.0%
13.2%
Dec-14F
18.7%
40%
21.3%
(8.19)
10.55
10.17
1.3%
24.4%
110.2
72.34
62.88
20.5%
17.3%
Dec-15F
18.3%
18%
21.3%
(6.91)
13.24
11.45
1.3%
23.5%
105.3
68.26
53.01
19.8%
17.6%
Dec-16F
10.9%
20%
23.0%
(4.83)
16.84
15.59
1.3%
22.4%
108.7
71.39
55.63
22.4%
19.5%
Dec-13A
8.2%
33.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
4.7%
6.3%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
0.0%
18.6%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
0.0%
10.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
KCE Electronics
Jan-14
SVI Public Company Limited
139
BanksThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$9,791m
US$24.11m
40.0%
THB321,449m
THB809.8m
13,982 m shares
Current
THB23.00
Target
THB28.00
Prev. Target
THB30.00
Up/Downside
21.7%
Conviction|
Transformation in progress
CIMB Analyst(s)
Weerapat WONK-URAI
T (66) 2 657 9224
E weerapat.wo@cimb.com
1M
3M
Relative
2.8
0.0
11.5
Absolute
0.0
-3.4
23.0
Major shareholders
12M
% held
FIDF
Vayupak Fund I
55.0
3.7
Price Close
120.0
24.0
115.0
22.0
110.0
20.0
105.0
18.0
100.0
16.0
95.0
14.0
200
90.0
150
Vol m
100
50
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
new product
subsidiaries.
launches
by
its
Outlook
Over the last three years, KTBs
balance sheet has become stronger
with a healthier loan-loss-reserve
ratio of 124.8% in FY14. While the
management
has
guided
for
THB700m/month provisioning, it
always sets aside more-than-required
given its strong performance. Its NPL
is at a manageable level and should
not be worrisome to investors due to
the stringent credit approval criteria.
We forecast FY15 loan growth of 9%
on the back of accelerated government
investments. In our view, its
cost-to-income ratio will be retained
at 43% in FY15 as the transformation
programme does not demand huge
investments.
Stay invested
KTB is one of our favourite Thai banks
due to its compelling valuation and a
high dividend of 4.6%. We advise
investors to stay invested in the stock.
Financial Summary
26.0
Dec-13
Dec-12A
58,122
23,774
81,896
(15,163)
23,366
2.02
33.1%
11.36
0.80
3.48%
15.36
1.50
14.9%
Dec-13A
63,870
30,466
94,336
(12,284)
33,928
2.62
29.5%
8.77
0.88
3.83%
14.75
1.56
17.4%
Dec-14F
69,180
29,032
98,212
(12,800)
34,167
2.44
(6.8%)
9.41
0.98
4.25%
16.22
1.42
15.8%
(0.45%)
1.03
Dec-15F
73,804
32,068
105,873
(13,500)
37,512
2.68
9.8%
8.57
1.07
4.67%
17.84
1.29
15.8%
(5.58%)
1.01
Dec-16F
79,748
35,429
115,178
(14,000)
42,108
3.01
12.3%
7.63
1.20
5.24%
19.66
1.17
16.1%
(7.47%)
1.00
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
63,870
30,466
94,336
(40,302)
54,034
(12,284)
41,750
0
41,750
0
41,750
0
41,750
(7,822)
Dec-14F
69,180
29,032
98,212
(42,703)
55,509
(12,800)
42,709
0
42,709
0
42,709
0
42,709
(8,542)
Dec-15F
73,804
32,068
105,873
(45,483)
60,390
(13,500)
46,890
0
46,890
0
46,890
0
46,890
(9,378)
Dec-16F
79,748
35,429
115,178
(48,543)
66,635
(14,000)
52,635
0
52,635
0
52,635
0
52,635
(10,527)
33,928
0
0
0
33,928
33,928
34,167
0
0
0
34,167
34,167
37,512
0
0
0
37,512
37,512
42,108
0
0
0
42,108
42,108
(THBm)
Total Gross Loans
Liquid Assets & Invst. (Current)
Other Int. Earning Assets
Total Gross Int. Earning Assets
Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve
Total Net Interest Earning Assets
Intangible Assets
Other Non-Interest Earning Assets
Total Non-Interest Earning Assets
Cash And Marketable Securities
Long-term Investments
Total Assets
Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank Deposits
Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others
Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank's Liabilities Under Acceptances
Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-14F
92.9%
92%
28.3%
29.6%
67.2%
80.7%
16.1%
76.2%
0.72%
0.50%
0.224%
Dec-15F
93.7%
93%
27.2%
28.2%
68.4%
81.9%
16.3%
77.6%
0.70%
0.50%
0.223%
Dec-16F
94.6%
94%
26.1%
27.1%
69.8%
83.3%
16.3%
79.1%
0.67%
0.48%
0.215%
Dec-15F
2,455,716
250,472
Dec-16F
2,679,332
255,481
2,394,403
(61,783)
2,332,621
0
130,833
130,833
50,690
0
2,514,143
1,883,795
200,989
138,696
2,223,479
3,122
81,452
2,308,054
206,089
0
206,089
2,530,871
(68,828)
2,462,044
0
133,431
133,431
33,770
0
2,629,245
1,977,984
213,049
140,140
2,331,172
3,200
68,148
2,402,521
226,724
0
226,724
2,706,187
(76,258)
2,629,929
0
137,584
137,584
47,841
0
2,815,355
2,136,223
215,179
141,599
2,493,001
3,280
69,705
2,565,986
249,369
0
249,369
2,934,813
(83,964)
2,850,849
0
140,799
140,799
46,674
0
3,038,323
2,328,483
217,331
143,074
2,688,888
3,362
71,299
2,763,549
274,774
0
274,774
Dec-13A
15.2%
16.1%
33.0%
67.7%
2.22%
4.87%
2.65%
3.60%
3.66%
22.7%
2.68%
18.7%
29.5%
Dec-14F
4.1%
2.7%
2.3%
70.4%
2.23%
4.87%
2.64%
3.58%
3.57%
23.1%
2.69%
20.0%
32.0%
Dec-15F
7.8%
8.8%
9.8%
69.7%
2.23%
4.88%
2.64%
3.59%
3.53%
22.4%
2.71%
20.0%
32.0%
Dec-16F
8.8%
10.3%
12.3%
69.2%
2.22%
4.87%
2.65%
3.57%
3.48%
21.0%
2.72%
20.0%
32.0%
Dec-13A
11.7%
2.8%
28.1%
42.7%
3.2%
112.3%
0.0%
10.2%
14.8%
13.0%
87.8%
3.2%
14.9%
Dec-14F
7.1%
2.8%
-4.7%
43.5%
3.0%
124.8%
0.0%
10.5%
14.8%
5.0%
89.4%
3.0%
8.8%
Dec-15F
9.0%
2.8%
10.5%
43.0%
2.9%
131.2%
0.0%
10.6%
14.6%
8.0%
90.2%
2.9%
12.7%
Dec-16F
10.0%
2.8%
10.5%
42.1%
2.8%
136.0%
0.0%
10.6%
14.3%
9.0%
91.0%
2.8%
13.7%
Key Drivers
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
Jan-11
Dec-14F
2,285,311
245,560
Key Ratios
0.00
Jan-10
Dec-13A
2,163,830
230,573
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Bangkok Bank
Kasikornbank
141
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,179m
US$4.91m
54.0%
THB104,363m
THB159.9m
10,026 m shares
Current
THB9.50
Target
THB10.24
Prev. Target
THB11.32
Up/Downside
7.8%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-3.8
-9.7
-14.1
Absolute
-5.0
-11.2
0.0
Major shareholders
% held
Asavabhokhin family
Thai NVDR
GIC
23.8
19.1
13.7
Price Close
112.0
10.00
102.0
9.00
92.0
8.00
150
82.0
Vol m
100
50
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Rich valuations
Although it is a proxy for the property
sector given its large market
capitalisation, LHs valuations are
quite demanding, at 14-15x CY15-16
P/E. We believe its growth prospects
are not compelling enough to justify
its hefty premium over peers, which
are trading at 9-10x average P/E for
FY15-16.
Financial Summary
11.00
Dec-13
Dec-12A
24,103
4,793
5,636
0.56
0.5%
16.90
0.44
4.62%
12.30
25.56
62.3%
3.09
18.7%
Dec-13A
25,075
5,650
6,478
0.65
15.0%
14.70
0.52
5.44%
11.68
23.37
72.8%
2.84
20.1%
Dec-14F
27,426
6,174
6,870
0.69
6.0%
15.25
0.52
5.42%
10.59
NA
64.5%
2.62
19.7%
0%
1.09
Dec-15F
30,145
6,984
7,568
0.75
10.2%
15.10
0.56
5.87%
9.52
60.85
54.8%
2.52
20.4%
0%
1.11
Dec-16F
33,160
7,682
8,217
0.82
8.6%
13.91
0.62
6.48%
8.62
31.37
51.2%
2.41
21.3%
0%
1.05
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Pref. & Special Div
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-13A
25,075
9,085
5,650
(509)
5,140
(61)
2,109
501
11,125
0
7,689
(1,102)
0
6,588
(109)
0
Dec-14F
27,426
9,871
6,174
(89)
6,084
(583)
2,214
580
11,992
0
8,295
(1,493)
0
6,802
68
0
6,478
6,478
6,478
6,870
6,870
6,870
Dec-15F
30,145
10,988
6,984
(98)
6,885
(573)
2,325
735
13,376
0
9,372
(1,874)
0
7,498
70
0
7,568
7,568
7,568
Dec-16F
33,160
12,087
7,682
(108)
7,574
(603)
2,441
771
14,588
0
10,183
(2,037)
0
8,147
70
0
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
8,217
8,217
8,217
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
3,588
Dec-15F
3,520
Dec-16F
3,700
136
38,496
1,407
41,205
616
22,387
0
11,161
34,164
422
140
46,497
1,280
51,505
678
26,172
0
773
27,622
4,000
145
47,628
1,242
52,534
746
23,400
0
986
25,132
800
149
48,232
1,204
53,285
820
23,400
0
1,002
25,223
800
2,806
10,429
13,656
26,104
2,600
10,249
16,849
23,849
2,450
10,179
13,429
24,205
2,200
9,898
12,898
23,839
766
26,870
0
40,526
33,573
1,270
34,843
789
24,638
0
41,487
36,307
1,334
37,640
812
25,017
0
38,446
37,820
1,400
39,221
837
24,675
0
37,574
39,463
1,470
40,934
Dec-13A
4.0%
9.3%
36.2%
(2.53)
3.35
15.05
14.3%
47.0%
1.87
810.7
56.52
19.4%
15.0%
Dec-14F
9.4%
8.6%
36.0%
(2.42)
3.62
14.54
18.0%
44.0%
1.84
883.6
56.20
20.3%
15.4%
Dec-15F
9.9%
11.3%
36.4%
(2.14)
3.77
16.23
20.0%
43.5%
1.72
896.7
48.11
23.9%
16.8%
Dec-16F
10.0%
10.0%
36.4%
(2.09)
3.94
16.84
20.0%
44.0%
1.62
832.5
40.38
25.1%
18.5%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
5,650
Dec-14F
6,174
Dec-15F
6,984
Dec-16F
7,682
(5,315)
(8,211)
(1,285)
(859)
(331)
0
(1,102)
(1,098)
(161)
0
1,133
0
(1,597)
(2,501)
(151)
0
629
0
(1,729)
4,599
(166)
0
(791)
0
(1,910)
4,122
(183)
0
0
560
399
4,775
0
0
(5,183)
0
561
410
1,842
4,000
0
(5,166)
0
561
395
(3,115)
2,000
0
(5,588)
0
561
378
(857)
1,000
0
(6,169)
1,770
2,447
1,770
(4,933)
1,770
(4,255)
242
(165)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
|
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,166
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
143
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
LPN Development
LPN TB / LPN.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,119m
US$3.81m
46.0%
THB36,745m
THB123.9m
1,476 m shares
Current
THB24.90
Target
THB29.78
Prev. Target
THB29.78
Up/Downside
19.6%
Conviction|
Solid outlook
CIMB Analyst(s)
We maintain our Add call on LPN, given the promising share price and
earnings upside. We retain our target price of THB29.8 based on 12.5x
CY16 P/E (1 s.d. above 5-year mean). Potential near-term catalysts are
recovery in 4Q14 presales and earnings
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
4.5
16.8
25.8
Absolute
3.3
15.3
39.9
Major shareholders
% held
Thai NVDR
Chase Nominees
HSBC (Singapore) Nominees
22.0
4.2
3.4
113.7
18.0
95.9
13.0
40
78.0
30
Vol m
20
10
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
23.0
Dec-13
Dec-12A
13,435
2,810
2,229
1.51
16.3%
16.48
0.76
3.03%
8.68
18.85
19.6%
4.33
28.6%
Dec-13A
14,436
2,955
2,329
1.58
4.5%
15.78
0.84
3.36%
8.54
32.32
42.4%
3.82
25.7%
Dec-14F
13,998
2,622
2,088
1.41
(10.3%)
17.60
0.71
2.84%
9.17
93.22
38.3%
3.51
20.8%
0%
0.95
Dec-15F
17,307
3,883
2,815
2.04
44.0%
12.22
1.05
4.21%
6.92
24.44
26.0%
2.93
26.1%
0%
0.88
Dec-16F
19,024
4,421
3,516
2.38
17.0%
10.45
1.19
4.78%
6.18
26.25
19.7%
2.53
26.0%
0%
1.00
LPN DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
14,436
4,779
2,955
(43)
2,912
(12)
0
54
4,779
0
2,954
(625)
Dec-14F
13,998
4,446
2,622
(42)
2,580
(17)
0
47
4,434
0
2,610
(522)
Dec-15F
17,307
5,777
3,883
(52)
3,832
(294)
0
50
5,481
0
3,587
(773)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
19,024
6,406
4,421
(33)
4,388
(45)
0
52
6,380
0
4,395
(879)
2,329
(0)
0
2,088
0
0
2,815
0
0
3,516
0
0
2,329
2,329
2,329
2,088
2,088
2,088
2,815
3,006
3,006
3,516
3,516
3,516
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
864
Dec-15F
1,203
Dec-16F
1,209
130
14,703
0
16,025
1,203
0
0
193
1,396
5,148
134
15,466
0
16,464
1,254
0
0
280
1,534
4,679
138
16,819
0
18,160
1,309
0
0
280
1,589
4,255
142
18,471
0
19,822
1,365
0
0
280
1,645
3,870
2,101
231
7,480
126
2,206
242
7,127
200
2,316
254
6,825
200
2,432
267
6,569
200
189
315
0
7,794
9,626
0
9,626
193
393
0
7,520
10,479
0
10,479
197
397
0
7,222
12,526
0
12,526
201
401
0
6,970
14,497
0
14,497
Dec-13A
7.7%
8.0%
33.3%
(2.77)
6.52
408.4
21.2%
52.6%
4.48
483.9
79.27
36.8%
36.1%
Dec-14F
(2.8%)
(7.0%)
31.9%
(2.72)
7.10
252.0
20.0%
54.3%
3.46
576.4
82.29
25.4%
29.1%
Dec-15F
23.8%
29.9%
33.5%
(2.20)
8.49
323.6
21.5%
56.9%
2.88
511.0
71.58
31.2%
35.4%
Dec-16F
9.9%
10.9%
33.8%
(1.94)
9.82
306.1
20.0%
50.1%
2.70
511.8
68.87
31.9%
35.9%
Dec-13A
11,000.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
32.7%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12.4%
Dec-14F
6,667.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
31.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13.0%
Dec-15F
14,122.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
33.2%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.0%
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
N/A
33.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10.5%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
2,955
Dec-14F
2,622
Dec-15F
3,883
Dec-16F
4,421
(3,704)
(662)
(1,247)
(1,540)
451
(12)
(688)
(999)
(338)
9
(505)
(17)
(625)
812
(52)
9
(144)
(18)
(522)
1,953
(54)
9
(280)
(16)
(773)
1,811
(57)
9
0
20
(309)
2,445
0
0
(1,234)
0
20
(23)
(395)
(0)
0
(1,044)
0
20
(25)
(424)
0
0
(1,545)
0
20
(28)
(384)
0
0
(1,758)
121
1,332
322
(1,116)
380
(1,590)
345
(1,797)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,192
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
145
Media - IntegratedTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$697.9m
US$1.67m
48.8%
THB22,911m
THB54.40m
881.9 m shares
Current
THB25.75
Target
THB24.38
Prev. Target
THB18.56
Up/Downside
-5.3%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
8.9
14.4
27.4
Absolute
7.7
12.9
41.5
Major shareholders
% held
36.7
10.3
4.8
Price Close
122.7
19.0
104.9
14.0
15
87.0
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Too expensive
Financial Summary
24.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
6,965
1,740
811
0.77
(12.5%)
33.38
0.87
3.38%
13.32
84.94
37.1%
3.63
11.2%
Dec-13A
7,711
2,016
1,092
1.07
39.3%
24.12
1.13
4.37%
11.69
17.01
49.9%
3.80
15.3%
Dec-14F
7,186
1,768
1,066
1.21
13.2%
21.38
1.14
4.43%
13.31
37.41
51.9%
3.81
17.9%
0%
1.02
Dec-15F
7,287
1,870
1,268
1.44
19.0%
18.02
1.36
5.27%
12.27
72.28
42.8%
3.70
21.0%
0%
1.06
Dec-16F
7,572
1,995
1,532
1.74
20.8%
14.92
1.64
6.37%
11.16
23.13
32.7%
3.57
24.5%
0%
1.11
Balance Sheet
Dec-12A
6,965
3,352
1,740
(1,083)
658
(133)
157
176
858
180
1,038
(282)
Dec-13A
7,711
3,765
2,016
(1,025)
991
(149)
189
121
1,152
189
1,341
(276)
Dec-14F
7,186
3,489
1,768
(1,051)
717
(141)
284
331
1,192
0
1,192
(181)
Dec-15F
7,287
3,521
1,870
(1,051)
820
(123)
292
454
1,443
0
1,443
(230)
Dec-16F
7,572
3,658
1,995
(1,049)
946
(96)
300
621
1,770
0
1,770
(294)
756
55
0
1,064
27
0
1,010
55
0
1,213
55
0
1,476
55
0
811
680
680
1,092
942
942
1,066
1,066
1,066
1,268
1,268
1,268
1,532
1,532
1,532
Dec-12A
1,740
Dec-13A
2,016
Dec-14F
1,768
Dec-15F
1,870
Dec-16F
1,995
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-12A
481
1,454
132
236
2,302
5,333
2,135
287
1,446
9,200
1,682
Dec-13A
603
1,312
145
425
2,486
5,350
2,186
338
1,537
9,411
1,708
Dec-14F
447
1,416
142
304
2,308
5,276
2,238
338
1,570
9,422
1,709
Dec-15F
128
1,393
148
301
1,969
4,886
2,291
338
1,582
9,097
1,327
Dec-16F
431
1,470
150
316
2,367
4,481
2,346
338
1,527
8,692
1,137
1,527
264
3,474
1,170
1,405
264
3,377
1,894
1,498
264
3,471
1,814
1,496
264
3,087
1,392
1,554
264
2,955
1,328
474
1,643
0
5,117
6,298
87
6,385
610
2,504
0
5,882
5,983
32
6,015
514
2,329
0
5,800
5,954
(23)
5,931
533
1,925
0
5,012
6,133
(79)
6,054
552
1,880
0
4,835
6,359
(134)
6,225
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
(35)
(183)
117
18
(33)
(133)
(282)
1,257
(1,087)
232
0
0
(855)
(135)
86
0
(689)
353
(149)
(276)
1,760
(1,402)
227
0
0
(1,176)
751
0
0
(972)
(152)
(141)
(181)
1,410
(954)
232
0
0
(721)
(80)
0
0
(1,114)
(34)
(123)
(230)
1,501
(619)
238
0
0
(381)
(804)
0
0
(1,090)
33
(96)
(294)
1,601
(603)
245
0
0
(358)
(254)
0
0
(1,306)
356
(382)
20
267
535
(241)
(462)
122
1,335
734
349
(846)
(156)
609
830
0
(1,894)
(774)
316
1,243
0
(1,560)
(318)
988
1,339
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
(37)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
BEC World
Jan-11
Jan-12
Major Cineplex Group
Jan-13
MCOT
Jan-14
VGI Global Media PCL
147
RetailThailand
December 12, 2014
Mc Group
MC TB / MC.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$341.2m
US$1.16m
30.0%
THB11,200m
THB37.83m
800.0 m shares
Current
THB14.00
Target
THB17.10
Prev. Target
THB17.10
Up/Downside
22.1%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-12.9
-22.8
-10.4
Absolute
-14.1
-24.3
3.7
Major shareholders
% held
Ms.Sunee Seripanu
HSBC Fund service Department
Mindo Asia Investment
44.1
10.3
8.8
Price Close
144.0
20.0
134.0
18.0
124.0
16.0
114.0
14.0
104.0
12.0
94.0
10.0
20
84.0
Vol m
10
5
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Intensifying competition
Competition in the retail industry is
intensifying
amid
the
weak
consumption, forcing existing players
to introduce more discount campaigns.
MC is no exception and the company
may have to sell products at a
discount, which will put pressure on
margins. Note that MC currently has
40% market share.
Financial Summary
22.0
15
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
2,556
772
599.3
2.00
101%
6.99
1.16
8.26%
5.95
NA
48.7%
5.21
88.2%
Dec-13A
2,973
873
733.4
1.34
(33%)
10.45
1.08
7.68%
6.99
NA
(45.4%)
3.10
33.4%
Dec-14F
3,712
968
727.5
0.91
(32%)
15.32
0.73
5.20%
9.77
17.90
(47.6%)
2.98
19.8%
0.92
Dec-15F
4,238
1,074
803.6
1.01
10%
13.88
0.80
5.74%
8.99
23.08
(40.8%)
2.86
21.0%
0.89
Dec-16F
4,895
1,248
952.7
1.20
18%
11.71
0.95
6.81%
7.78
16.81
(37.7%)
2.72
23.8%
0.89
Mc GroupThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
2,973
1,775
873
(90)
783
(17)
0
44
814
Dec-14F
3,712
2,185
968
(153)
815
0
0
26
845
Dec-15F
4,238
2,423
1,074
(170)
904
0
0
33
941
Dec-16F
4,895
2,802
1,248
(173)
1,074
0
0
31
1,110
810
(77)
841
(99)
937
(118)
1,106
(137)
732
1
742
(15)
819
(16)
969
(16)
733
737
737
728
731
731
804
807
807
953
956
956
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
1,792
726
1,363
73
3,953
340
0
118
241
699
108
2
508
285
903
0
Dec-14F
1,831
851
1,240
91
4,013
516
0
115
241
872
0
0
556
293
850
0
Dec-15F
1,689
972
1,474
104
4,239
575
0
117
241
932
54
0
658
289
1,001
0
Dec-16F
1,609
1,123
1,699
120
4,551
586
0
116
241
942
27
0
755
291
1,074
0
155
155
39
1,044
3,759
88
3,847
132
132
39
1,172
3,920
88
4,008
190
190
39
1,304
4,110
88
4,198
Dec-13A
16.3%
13.1%
29.4%
2.10
4.52
45.09
9.5%
117%
83.73
326.4
128.4
50.8%
31.1%
Dec-14F
24.9%
10.9%
26.1%
2.29
4.70
N/A
11.7%
80%
77.57
311.1
122.6
31.7%
21.5%
Dec-15F
14.2%
10.9%
25.3%
2.04
4.90
N/A
12.6%
80%
78.53
272.8
118.2
33.0%
23.3%
Dec-16F
15.5%
16.2%
25.5%
1.98
5.14
N/A
12.4%
80%
78.32
277.5
120.2
34.0%
26.2%
Dec-13A
N/A
N/A
624
-2.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
N/A
728
-4.4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
N/A
828
0.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
928
1.3%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9
9
39
951
3,614
88
3,701
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
873
Dec-14F
968
Dec-15F
1,074
Dec-16F
1,248
(538)
47
(254)
(278)
41
(17)
(77)
282
(194)
(211)
(1,520)
249
(1,676)
11
0
(99)
927
(325)
(1)
16
8
(302)
18
0
(118)
720
(225)
(5)
0
(4)
(235)
15
0
(137)
847
(180)
(3)
0
2
(181)
3,074
15
16
16
(860)
(582)
(643)
(762)
(705)
1,509
114
(1,395)
(1,377)
(3)
(570)
55
626
626
0
(627)
(142)
485
485
(0)
(746)
(80)
666
666
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Mc Group
149
TV - FTATHAILAND
December 12, 2014
MCOT
MCOT TB / MCOT.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$368.4m
US$0.41m
34.2%
THB12,093m
THB13.39m
687.1 m shares
Current
THB17.60
Target
THB20.00
Prev. Target
THB24.79
Up/Downside
13.6%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-11.7
-27.5
-54.4
Absolute
-12.9
-29.0
-40.3
Major shareholders
% held
65.8
11.5
2.2
Unresolved structural
problems
Price Close
104
26.0
81
21.0
59
16.0
4
37
3
2
Vol m
Financial Summary
31.0
1
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Sep-14
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
5,729
2,662
1,759
2.56
29.6%
6.88
2.30
13.1%
2.80
14.43
(57.2%)
1.52
22.6%
Dec-13A
5,715
2,207
1,527
2.22
(13.2%)
7.92
2.00
11.4%
3.51
3.79
(54.4%)
1.53
19.2%
Dec-14F
4,841
1,267
624
0.91
(59.2%)
19.39
0.77
4.4%
7.07
77.28
(40.3%)
1.58
8.0%
(36.9%)
0.80
Dec-15F
5,138
1,599
816
1.19
30.9%
14.81
1.01
5.7%
6.13
NA
(28.6%)
1.54
10.5%
(16.3%)
1.06
Dec-16F
5,004
1,673
811
1.18
(0.6%)
14.90
1.06
6.0%
5.77
18.75
(30.0%)
1.52
10.3%
(6.9%)
1.02
MCOTThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
5,715
3,529
2,207
(540)
1,668
256
0
0
1,924
0
1,924
(396)
0
1,528
(1)
0
0
0
1,527
1,527
1,527
Dec-14F
4,841
2,548
1,267
(651)
616
155
0
0
772
0
772
(147)
0
625
(1)
0
0
0
624
624
624
Dec-15F
5,138
2,967
1,599
(692)
907
136
0
0
1,043
0
1,043
(226)
0
817
(1)
0
0
0
816
816
816
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
5,004
3,012
1,673
(716)
956
112
0
0
1,068
0
1,068
(256)
0
812
(1)
0
0
0
811
811
811
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
4,337
1,516
51
328
6,232
3,988
90
0
859
4,936
0
6
1,358
406
1,770
4
0
1,435
1,439
0
3,208
7,899
61
7,960
Dec-14F
3,653
1,071
47
278
5,049
7,891
90
0
634
8,614
0
55
1,576
343
1,974
498
0
3,499
3,997
0
5,972
7,633
59
7,691
Dec-15F
2,760
1,542
27
295
4,623
7,867
90
0
736
8,692
0
55
1,472
365
1,892
442
0
3,075
3,517
0
5,409
7,848
59
7,906
Dec-16F
2,846
1,030
56
287
4,220
7,587
90
0
720
8,396
0
55
1,362
355
1,773
387
0
2,448
2,835
0
4,608
7,949
59
8,008
Dec-13A
(0.2%)
(17.1%)
38.6%
6.30
11.50
128.2
20.6%
103%
96.36
7.57
231.6
29.0%
24.2%
Dec-14F
(15.3%)
(42.6%)
26.2%
4.51
11.11
24.8
19.1%
161%
97.53
7.80
233.5
9.9%
9.8%
Dec-15F
6.1%
26.2%
31.1%
3.29
11.42
38.4
21.7%
74%
92.81
6.22
256.2
9.1%
12.8%
Dec-16F
(2.6%)
4.6%
33.4%
3.50
11.57
45.2
23.9%
87%
94.07
7.58
260.3
8.9%
12.9%
Dec-13A
-1.0%
N/A
N/A
66.1%
-8.8%
Dec-14F
-24.3%
N/A
N/A
60.8%
-14.9%
Dec-15F
0.5%
N/A
N/A
59.0%
19.6%
Dec-16F
-2.1%
N/A
N/A
61.2%
6.8%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
2,207
0
(302)
19
0
0
22
(801)
1,145
(195)
37
2,087
120
2,049
(4)
26
0
(1,580)
0
188
(1,371)
1,824
3,190
3,195
Dec-14F
1,267
0
3,544
0
0
0
(25)
(147)
4,639
(5,153)
0
128
0
(5,026)
543
0
0
(1,007)
0
167
(298)
(684)
156
(362)
Dec-15F
1,599
0
(476)
0
0
0
(24)
(226)
873
(1,269)
0
(33)
0
(1,301)
(55)
0
0
(601)
0
192
(465)
(893)
(483)
(404)
Dec-16F
1,673
0
360
0
0
0
(21)
(256)
1,756
(1,036)
0
(20)
0
(1,056)
(55)
0
0
(710)
0
151
(614)
87
645
721
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
BEC World
Jan-11
Jan-12
Major Cineplex Group
Jan-13
MCOT
Jan-14
VGI Global Media PCL
151
HotelsThailand
December 12, 2014
Minor International
MINT TB / MINT.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$4,479m
US$8.28m
50.9%
THB147,057m
THB269.5m
4,001 m shares
Current
THB36.75
Target
THB42.00
Prev. Target
THB42.00
Up/Downside
14.3%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
15.2
6.5
36.5
Absolute
14.0
5.0
50.6
Major shareholders
% held
Heinecke family
Mr Nithi Osathanugrah
34.0
8.6
MINT will not only benefit from tourism recovery in Thailand, it will
also profit from an emerging tourism trend in Africa. Its food business
is likely to see a stronger year in 2015. We project improvements all
round from MINT in 2015, driving up its earnings growth to almost
30% next year.
MINT is one of our top picks for the
Thai market next year. We reiterate
our Add call and our THB42 target
price, still based on 24x CY16 P/E (1
s.d. above 5-year historical mean). We
believe that a pick-up in tourist
arrivals and the food business will
help catalyse its share price.
Vol m
Price Close
152.0
36.0
138.0
31.0
124.0
26.0
110.0
21.0
96.0
16.0
50
40
30
20
10
82.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
18.70
42.00
Current
Target
Aggressive expansion
plans
MINT plans to add 20 hotels (2,574
rooms) using its own money during
2014-16 on top of the 93 hotels under
its ownership, joint venture and
Management Letting Right (MLR)
(11,297 rooms) now. MINT also plans
to add 28 hotels (4,210 rooms) under
its managed hotel portfolio. That said,
MINT plans to grow its number of
rooms by 15% CAGR over the next
three years.
On the food side, MINT plans to add
about 220 outlets per annum over the
next few years. It expects to have
2,600 restaurants by 2018, from 1,648
at the end of 3Q14 (11% CAGR).
Financial Summary
41.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
31,310
5,406
3,243
0.93
66.8%
39.45
0.28
0.77%
26.37
73.8
95.0%
7.58
20.1%
Dec-13A
34,678
6,090
4,101
1.07
14.5%
34.44
0.34
0.92%
24.74
NA
60.3%
5.86
19.1%
Dec-14F
39,243
6,519
4,524
1.13
6.0%
32.50
0.37
1.02%
23.99
109.8
54.5%
5.23
17.0%
0%
1.01
Dec-15F
47,239
8,132
5,753
1.44
27.2%
25.56
0.47
1.29%
19.10
85.0
46.3%
4.60
19.1%
0%
1.04
Dec-16F
54,320
9,667
7,021
1.75
22.0%
20.95
0.58
1.58%
15.92
66.4
38.2%
4.01
20.5%
0%
1.10
Minor InternationalThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
34,678
20,129
6,090
(2,465)
3,625
(1,027)
530
1,729
4,857
0
4,857
(675)
Dec-14F
39,243
21,962
6,519
(2,630)
3,888
(1,012)
662
1,833
5,371
0
5,371
(752)
Dec-15F
47,239
26,600
8,132
(2,873)
5,259
(1,031)
695
1,979
6,902
0
6,902
(1,035)
Dec-16F
54,320
30,805
9,667
(3,140)
6,527
(926)
730
2,078
8,410
0
8,410
(1,262)
4,182
(80)
0
4,619
(95)
0
5,867
(114)
0
7,149
(128)
0
4,101
4,101
4,101
4,524
4,524
4,524
5,753
5,753
5,753
7,021
7,021
7,021
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
3,370
3,332
1,675
2,255
10,632
23,432
9,547
11,804
4,522
49,304
971
Dec-14F
3,282
3,731
1,792
2,278
11,083
24,603
9,648
12,276
4,748
51,275
777
Dec-15F
3,244
4,179
1,918
2,300
11,641
27,064
10,179
12,767
4,985
54,995
816
Dec-16F
3,211
4,681
2,052
2,323
12,267
29,770
10,743
13,278
5,234
59,025
938
8,694
1,293
10,958
18,602
7,598
1,319
9,694
18,842
8,147
1,346
10,309
18,136
8,752
1,373
11,063
17,052
3,501
22,103
0
33,062
25,090
1,784
26,875
3,851
22,693
0
32,386
28,122
1,850
29,972
4,236
22,372
0
32,681
31,976
1,980
33,956
4,448
21,500
0
32,562
36,680
2,050
38,730
Dec-13A
10.8%
12.7%
17.6%
(4.05)
6.27
3.53
13.9%
25.5%
33.08
41.28
120.9
8.4%
8.3%
Dec-14F
13.2%
7.0%
16.6%
(4.08)
7.03
3.84
14.0%
25.5%
32.85
36.62
110.8
8.4%
8.1%
Dec-15F
20.4%
24.7%
17.2%
(3.93)
7.99
5.10
15.0%
25.2%
30.56
32.81
102.1
10.4%
10.3%
Dec-16F
15.0%
18.9%
17.8%
(3.69)
9.17
7.05
15.0%
25.2%
29.85
30.89
98.8
11.9%
11.9%
Dec-13A
70.0%
5,573.0
12,800
1,457
100
Dec-14F
70.0%
5,740.2
14,968
1,557
100
Dec-15F
75.0%
6,199.4
16,724
1,657
100
Dec-16F
75.0%
6,571.4
18,062
1,757
100
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
6,090
1,798
94
Dec-14F
6,519
662
1,362
Dec-15F
8,132
695
1,509
Dec-16F
9,667
730
1,224
0
(1,027)
(675)
6,280
(4,664)
0
(3,518)
0
(8,181)
(1,315)
3,651
0
(1,353)
0
(1,012)
(752)
6,779
(3,802)
0
(287)
0
(4,089)
(1,352)
(0)
0
(1,493)
0
(1,031)
(1,035)
8,270
(5,333)
0
(539)
0
(5,872)
(667)
(0)
0
(1,899)
0
(926)
(1,262)
9,434
(5,846)
0
(413)
0
(6,259)
(962)
(0)
0
(2,317)
587
1,569
(332)
(3,216)
(874)
66
(2,779)
(88)
1,339
3,703
130
(2,436)
(38)
1,731
3,429
70
(3,208)
(33)
2,214
4,101
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Central Plaza Hotel
Jan-12
Jan-13
Hotel Shilla
Jan-14
Minor International
153
MK Restaurant Group
M TB / M.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,623m
US$1.30m
24.6%
THB53,291m
THB42.33m
793.8 m shares
Current
THB58.75
Target
THB74.00
Prev. Target
THB74.00
Up/Downside
26.0%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
Relative
1.2
0.6
7.0
Absolute
0.0
-0.9
21.1
Major shareholders
12M
% held
Thirakomen Yupin
Hanjitkasem Somchai
Hanjitkasem Somnuk
21.9
18.1
18.1
Vol m
Price Close
132.0
66.0
125.0
61.0
118.0
56.0
111.0
51.0
104.0
46.0
10
8
6
4
2
97.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Expansion on track.
M reiterates its plan to open around
60 new restaurants each year. Its
branch expansion plan is still on track,
as 19 new branches were opened in
3Q14 (42 branches in 9M14), bringing
Ms total branches to 548 at
end-9M14. With the 16 new branches
scheduled for opening in 4Q14, M
would have added 58 new branches in
2014.
Maintain Add
We maintain our positive view on Ms
operation in the longer term and its
solid net cash position. Ms estimated
dividend yields are attractive, at 4.5%
in FY15 and 5.2% in FY16 (based on
80% dividend payout). Considering its
strong financials, M can afford to pay
higher dividends.
Financial Summary
71.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
12,987
2,993
2,031
4.49
14.0%
13.07
4.50
7.66%
8.89
19.82
5.1%
23.30
156%
Dec-13A
13,969
2,875
2,039
3.17
(29.5%)
18.55
1.60
2.72%
12.86
NA
(7.8%)
4.19
33%
Dec-14F
15,023
3,200
2,196
2.58
(18.4%)
22.73
1.74
2.96%
15.14
32.81
(12.8%)
4.58
19%
0%
1.12
Dec-15F
17,013
3,581
2,498
2.76
6.7%
21.31
2.59
4.41%
14.32
24.52
(16.8%)
4.58
22%
0%
1.03
Dec-16F
19,132
3,979
2,813
3.11
12.6%
18.92
3.01
5.12%
12.80
22.56
(19.6%)
4.58
24%
0%
1.02
MK Restaurant GroupThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
13,969
9,940
2,875
(598)
2,276
(21)
0
271
2,526
Dec-14F
15,023
10,441
3,200
(704)
2,495
(21)
0
271
2,745
Dec-15F
17,013
11,773
3,581
(709)
2,872
(21)
0
271
3,122
Dec-16F
19,132
13,182
3,979
(712)
3,267
(21)
0
271
3,517
2,526
(487)
2,745
(549)
3,122
(624)
3,517
(703)
2,039
0
2,196
0
2,498
0
2,813
0
2,039
2,039
2,039
2,196
2,196
2,196
2,498
2,498
2,498
2,813
2,813
2,813
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
EFATableCorpIS|
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
1,490
118
244
3,686
5,537
4,311
0
56
5,658
10,025
0
0
1,506
452
1,958
0
Dec-15F
1,949
134
279
3,686
6,047
4,333
0
56
5,658
10,046
0
0
1,723
436
2,159
0
Dec-16F
2,282
150
317
3,686
6,434
4,351
0
56
5,658
10,064
0
0
1,956
444
2,400
0
1,586
1,586
0
3,864
11,142
0
11,142
1,992
1,992
0
3,951
11,612
0
11,612
2,323
2,323
0
4,482
11,612
0
11,612
2,487
2,487
0
4,887
11,612
0
11,612
Dec-13A
7.6%
(4.0%)
20.6%
1.10
14.04
107.2
19.3%
62%
2.87
19.43
158.4
133%
34%
Dec-14F
7.5%
11.3%
21.3%
1.64
12.82
117.5
20.0%
72%
3.38
18.72
134.0
21%
22%
Dec-15F
13.2%
11.9%
21.0%
2.15
12.82
135.3
20.0%
94%
2.70
18.21
112.5
24%
25%
Dec-16F
12.5%
11.1%
20.8%
2.52
12.82
153.9
20.0%
97%
2.72
18.32
113.1
27%
28%
Dec-13A
N/A
2.8%
N/A
N/A
16.6%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
7.8%
N/A
N/A
20.6%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
10.8%
N/A
N/A
23.2%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
10.3%
N/A
N/A
20.8%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
2,875
Dec-14F
3,200
Dec-15F
3,581
Dec-16F
3,979
(327)
166
179
(700)
(21)
(487)
1,761
(1,891)
(1)
2
(7,928)
(9,818)
(50)
(21)
(549)
2,252
(730)
0
0
0
(730)
(200)
(21)
(624)
2,901
(730)
0
0
0
(730)
(344)
(21)
(703)
3,089
(730)
0
0
0
(730)
9,085
112
94
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
(1,270)
(1,575)
(2,345)
(2,725)
(1,437)
6,378
(1,680)
(8,057)
(8,036)
238
(1,225)
297
1,522
1,543
162
(2,183)
(12)
2,171
2,192
84
(2,642)
(282)
2,359
2,380
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
871
160
226
3,686
4,943
4,286
0
56
5,722
10,063
0
0
1,858
420
2,278
0
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
MK Restaurant Group
155
RetailThailand
December 12, 2014
Officemate
OFM TB / OFM.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$477.6m
US$0.20m
24.4%
THB15,680m
THB6.59m
320.0 m shares
Current
THB49.00
Target
THB54.00
Prev. Target
THB54.00
Up/Downside
10.2%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.2
-0.5
42.7
Absolute
-1.0
-2.0
56.8
Major shareholders
% held
Mr.Narongrit Chirathivat
Mr.Sudhitham Chirathivat
Mr.Worawoot Ounjai
9.8
9.1
8.8
Price Close
170
44.0
141
34.0
113
24.0
2
84
Vol m
1
1
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
54.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
6,814
530
271.8
0.34
272%
145.2
1.21
2.47%
74.98
52.35
(17.0%)
3.70
10.0%
Dec-13A
8,690
723
408.8
1.37
305%
35.8
0.25
0.51%
20.57
72.27
(17.8%)
3.43
9.9%
Dec-14F
10,166
845
469.4
1.56
14%
31.5
0.51
1.04%
17.39
43.61
(20.2%)
3.22
10.5%
0.95
Dec-15F
12,091
1,038
585.9
1.92
23%
25.5
0.59
1.20%
13.82
28.84
(25.4%)
2.97
12.1%
0.98
Dec-16F
14,299
1,286
762.7
2.47
29%
19.8
0.73
1.49%
10.73
20.38
(32.3%)
2.70
14.3%
1.03
OfficemateThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-12A
7,177
2,019
530
(134)
396
(4)
(13)
0
389
Dec-13A
9,120
2,560
723
(209)
514
(1)
0
0
550
Dec-14F
10,665
2,995
845
(259)
587
0
0
0
622
Dec-15F
12,685
3,527
1,038
(306)
732
0
0
0
767
Dec-16F
15,002
4,137
1,286
(333)
953
0
0
0
988
379
(108)
514
(105)
587
(117)
732
(146)
953
(191)
272
409
469
586
763
272
279
279
409
438
438
469
498
498
586
614
614
763
790
790
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-12A
722
405
1,266
0
2,393
564
0
3,343
106
4,012
0
2
2,051
0
2,053
0
Dec-13A
813
576
1,411
0
2,799
711
0
3,346
104
4,162
0
0
2,269
0
2,269
0
Dec-14F
982
574
1,565
0
3,121
939
0
3,352
104
4,396
0
0
2,525
0
2,525
0
Dec-15F
1,338
683
1,868
0
3,889
1,066
0
3,349
104
4,520
0
0
3,016
0
3,016
0
Dec-16F
1,873
807
2,217
0
4,897
1,145
0
3,351
104
4,600
0
0
3,578
0
3,578
0
58
58
56
2,167
4,239
49
49
76
2,394
4,567
52
52
66
2,643
4,873
50
50
71
3,137
5,271
51
51
68
3,697
5,800
4,239
4,567
4,873
5,271
5,800
Key Ratios
Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14F
530
723
845
922
(974)
(4)
(108)
367
(405)
(3,168)
(68)
4,047
406
3,000
Dec-15F
1,038
Dec-16F
1,286
89
(98)
105
78
(42)
(1)
(105)
477
(159)
(198)
40
57
(260)
0
0
(117)
833
(400)
(92)
27
(8)
(473)
0
0
(146)
969
(350)
(80)
0
4
(426)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
0
0
(191)
1,185
(350)
(64)
0
(2)
(416)
0
(387)
(80)
(164)
(188)
(234)
(3,109)
(496)
277
773
777
(6)
(86)
131
217
217
1
(163)
197
360
360
(0)
(188)
356
544
544
0
(234)
535
769
769
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.)
No. of POS (main prod/serv)
SSS grth (%, main prod/serv)
ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv)
No. of POS (2ndary prod/serv)
SSS grth (%, 2ndary prrod/serv)
157
Precious Shipping
PSL TB / PSL.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$487.6m
US$1.20m
39.5%
THB16,009m
THB39.04m
1,040 m shares
Current
THB15.40
Target
THB18.45
Prev. Target
THB18.45
Up/Downside
19.8%
Conviction|
Tough markets
CIMB Analyst(s)
PSLs unexpectedly large loss in 3Q14 clearly indicated that 2014 had
been a tougher year than previously forecast. Secondhand vessel prices
have also been dropping, suggesting that the markets expectations of
future freight rates are moderating.
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-17.8
-41.5
-40.8
Absolute
-19.0
-43.0
-26.7
Major shareholders
% held
43.0
17.5
5.3
Price Close
132
24.0
105
19.0
77
14.0
15
49
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
15.40
18.45
Current
Target
Fleet renewal
PSL will take delivery of 17 new ships
in FY15 and another seven in FY16. It
plans to sell up to 21 older and/or
fuel-inefficient ships by early 2016.
Once this process is completed, the
fleet average age should drop from 9.5
to 3.5 years and the average size
should rise from 35,000 to 50,000
dwt. As a result, we expect PSL to
reduce its operating costs/day due to
lower maintenance costs and also
lower voyage costs resulting from
better fuel consumption. The benefits
will be felt more deeply in FY16.
Financial Summary
29.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
3,499
1,223
141
(0.10)
(122%)
NA
0.36
2.34%
18.63
NA
49%
1.11
(0.72%)
Dec-13A
3,869
1,153
528
(0.40)
292%
NA
0.36
2.34%
18.94
6.62
41%
1.03
(2.78%)
Dec-14F
4,895
1,875
106
0.11
NA
140.1
0.36
2.34%
14.35
25.52
74%
1.05
0.74%
0%
0.48
Dec-15F
5,559
2,439
1,872
0.10
(7%)
150.4
0.36
2.34%
14.04
4.23
112%
0.96
0.66%
0%
1.89
Dec-16F
6,392
3,113
142
0.14
33%
112.9
0.36
2.34%
12.39
11.48
140%
0.97
0.85%
0%
0.18
Precious ShippingThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
3,869
1,478
1,153
(1,137)
16
(450)
32
0
(402)
947
545
(8)
Dec-14F
4,895
2,178
1,875
(1,319)
556
(434)
5
0
127
(8)
119
(10)
Dec-15F
5,559
2,757
2,439
(1,721)
719
(604)
5
0
119
1,766
1,885
(10)
Dec-16F
6,392
3,445
3,113
(2,193)
920
(770)
5
0
155
0
155
(10)
537
(9)
0
109
(3)
0
1,875
(3)
0
145
(3)
0
528
(419)
(419)
106
114
114
1,872
106
106
142
142
142
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
2,720
2,176
114
0
5,010
24,535
525
4
0
25,064
654
Dec-15F
5,488
2,361
117
0
7,966
33,143
530
4
0
33,677
654
Dec-16F
5,696
2,592
123
0
8,412
36,969
535
4
0
37,509
654
221
102
977
8,619
246
102
1,002
13,465
254
102
1,010
23,567
267
102
1,023
28,102
0
8,619
283
9,879
15,621
10
15,631
0
13,465
283
14,750
15,311
13
15,324
0
23,567
283
24,859
16,767
16
16,784
0
28,102
283
29,408
16,493
19
16,512
Dec-13A
10.6%
(5.7%)
29.8%
(6.09)
15.02
0.04
1.45%
NA
60.89
19.01
36.27
0.06%
0.10%
Dec-14F
26.5%
62.6%
38.3%
(10.96)
14.72
1.25
8.38%
301%
90.70
14.50
31.39
2.05%
2.07%
Dec-15F
13.6%
30.1%
43.9%
(18.01)
16.12
1.16
0.53%
321%
95.27
15.05
32.58
2.17%
2.07%
Dec-16F
15.0%
27.6%
48.7%
(22.17)
15.86
1.16
6.46%
247%
94.98
14.96
32.37
2.09%
2.17%
Dec-13A
1,099.0
7,508.0
-8.7%
14,235
29.9%
40.0
40
Dec-14F
1,154.0
8,198.9
9.2%
15,513
9.0%
45.0
45
Dec-15F
1,269.4
9,008.8
9.9%
16,243
4.7%
44.0
44
Dec-16F
1,396.3
9,810.8
8.9%
17,338
6.7%
51.0
51
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
1,153
Dec-14F
1,875
Dec-15F
2,439
Dec-16F
3,113
(845)
(271)
(180)
(224)
714
0
(9)
1,013
(3,540)
4,709
0
31
1,200
206
0
0
(415)
(75)
0
(10)
1,518
(6,058)
671
0
(350)
(5,737)
4,846
0
0
(416)
0
0
(10)
2,249
(12,627)
4,414
0
(350)
(8,563)
10,102
0
0
(416)
0
0
(10)
2,879
(5,670)
0
0
(350)
(6,020)
4,536
0
0
(416)
(1,080)
(1,289)
923
2,418
2,213
(434)
3,997
(222)
628
(4,219)
(604)
9,082
2,768
3,788
(6,314)
(770)
3,350
209
1,395
(3,141)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
Dec-13A
2,942
1,892
102
0
4,936
20,050
520
4
0
20,574
654
Jan-11
MISC Bhd
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Precious Shipping
159
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,035m
US$4.51m
22.5%
THB66,797m
THB146.7m
2,222 m shares
Current
THB30.00
Target
THB45.95
Prev. Target
THB45.95
Up/Downside
53.2%
Conviction|
Trusted growth
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-9.3
-6.2
30.8
Absolute
-10.5
-7.7
Major shareholders
44.9
% held
70.2
3.7
1.4
Stronger FY15
We remain upbeat about the 20% EPS
growth for FY15 given our revenue has
been 34% locked in by higher-margin
condo backlog. PS can easily meet our
revenue estimate with flat growth for
TH/SDH next year. Note that this
condo backlog carries lower cost than
the FY14 backlog given normalised
construction cost after the 4Q11 flood
crisis. The shorter SDH/TH business
cycle of 90 days should support
margin expansion for landed housing.
As for FY14, despite the high 9M14
lock-in rate vs. our FY14 EPS, we keep
our EPS estimates as we expect a
softer 4Q14 due to lower gross
margins from lower utilisation of
factories (with its new factory No. 6)
and further provision of THB70bn for
its Vietnam operations. The upside
potential for FY14 EPS cannot be
ruled out if PS delivers its optimistic
revenue target of THB42bn (vs.
CIMBs THB40bn) and its SG&A ratio
Vol m
Price Close
170
34.0
152
29.0
134
24.0
116
19.0
98
14.0
25
20
15
10
5
80
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Upbeat targets
Target growth for FY15 presales is
likely to be in the range of 8-10%,
while FY15s revenue from real estate
sales should be between 15% and 20%.
Gross margin should improve further
due to a higher lower-cost condo mix
and shorter business cycle for
TH/SDH. Gearing is guided at below
1x. As for FY14, PS has retained its
targets at THB43bn for presales and
THB42bn for sales revenue. 9M14
presales and revenue formed 73% of
PSs FY15 targets (9M14 revenue was
75% of our FY14 estimate). New
launches for FY14 were revised down
to 62 projects worth THB58bn from
73 projects worth THB78bn. Ten
more projects worth THB9.6bn will be
launched in 4Q14 (TH 5, SDH 4,
condo 1).
Deserves re-rating
Stay invested for promising long-term
returns. PS deserves to re-rate above
its 5-year mean P/E, given its ongoing
solid growth, high ROE and healthy
gearing level.
Financial Summary
39.0
Dec-13
Dec-12A
27,023
5,532
3,898
1.75
37.0%
17.07
0.52
1.73%
8.87
60.9
71.4%
3.32
21.0%
Dec-13A
38,848
6,995
5,801
2.61
48.8%
11.49
0.72
2.39%
6.22
237.4
69.6%
2.67
25.8%
Dec-14F
40,000
8,340
6,164
2.77
6.3%
10.81
0.77
2.55%
5.94
26.2
64.7%
2.28
22.8%
0%
1.00
Dec-15F
46,000
10,006
7,431
3.34
20.6%
8.97
0.77
2.55%
5.07
25.6
53.2%
1.92
23.2%
0%
1.03
Dec-16F
52,900
11,458
8,507
3.83
14.5%
7.83
0.77
2.55%
4.46
25.0
44.6%
1.62
22.4%
0%
1.11
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
38,848
13,498
6,995
(374)
6,621
385
0
193
13,702
0
7,199
(1,399)
Dec-14F
40,000
14,400
8,340
(460)
7,880
(419)
0
195
13,716
0
7,657
(1,493)
Dec-15F
46,000
16,790
10,006
(484)
9,522
(489)
0
197
16,015
0
9,231
(1,800)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
52,900
19,044
11,458
(508)
10,950
(582)
0
199
18,154
0
10,568
(2,061)
5,801
0
0
6,164
0
0
7,431
0
0
8,507
0
0
5,801
5,801
5,801
6,164
6,164
6,164
7,431
7,431
7,431
8,507
8,507
8,507
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
4,362
Dec-15F
4,778
Dec-16F
4,949
0
48,687
0
52,291
2,702
0
0
1,201
3,903
6,955
0
53,956
0
58,318
3,837
0
0
1,261
5,098
6,265
0
59,554
0
64,332
4,029
0
0
1,324
5,353
6,273
0
65,856
0
70,805
4,231
0
0
1,390
5,621
6,281
2,090
7,952
16,997
14,000
2,153
8,509
16,927
17,000
2,218
9,111
17,601
17,000
2,284
9,484
18,049
17,000
265
14,265
0
31,262
24,933
0
24,933
278
17,278
0
34,205
29,211
0
29,211
292
17,292
0
34,893
34,792
0
34,792
307
17,307
0
35,356
41,070
0
41,070
Dec-13A
43.8%
47.8%
34.7%
(7.81)
11.22
31.62
19.4%
15.3%
622.8
26.04
30.3%
34.2%
Dec-14F
3.0%
6.7%
36.0%
(8.51)
13.15
33.29
19.5%
15.1%
731.7
30.25
26.2%
28.3%
Dec-15F
15.0%
16.6%
36.5%
(8.32)
15.66
33.36
19.5%
15.7%
709.2
27.31
27.0%
29.8%
Dec-16F
15.0%
13.4%
36.0%
(8.25)
18.49
31.85
19.5%
15.9%
677.9
24.33
27.7%
30.5%
Dec-13A
6,800.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.7%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.6%
Dec-14F
20,786.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
36.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16.3%
Dec-15F
13,351.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
36.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.8%
Dec-16F
13,351.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
36.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.3%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
6,995
Dec-14F
8,340
Dec-15F
10,006
Dec-16F
11,458
(10,306)
374
(5,207)
460
(5,533)
484
(6,235)
508
1,149
736
(1,123)
(2,549)
(856)
0
508
(419)
(1,399)
1,825
(1,596)
0
476
(338)
(1,493)
3,118
(675)
0
233
(431)
(1,800)
3,224
(709)
0
0
250
(606)
3,436
0
0
(1,885)
0
0
(1,596)
2,310
0
0
(1,849)
0
150
(525)
8
0
0
(2,229)
0
145
(564)
8
0
0
(2,552)
(27)
435
(53)
(2,274)
(53)
(2,597)
1,854
3,405
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
3,604
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
161
PTT
PTT TB / PTT.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$30,016m
US$58.77m
49.0%
THB985,423m
THB1,914m
2,856 m shares
Current
THB345.0
Target
THB436.0
Prev. Target
THB436.0
Up/Downside
26.4%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
Relative
-10.6
0.6
-1.0
Absolute
-11.8
-0.9
13.1
Major shareholders
12M
% held
Ministry of Finance
Vayupak Funds
52.5
15.6
NGV upside
The regulator Energy Policy and
Planning Office has announced
another increase in the NGV price
which is expected to reach PTTs cost
at THB16/kg. This would effectively
boost PTTs earnings by THB12bn in
2015, in line with our expectations.
We expect another upside of up to
THB7bn from the LPG price lift which
should start by 2H15 when the oil
fund balance turns to a THB15bn
surplus, the optimal level, in our view.
115.1
350
105.8
300
96.4
250
20
87.0
15
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Valuation rerating
We believe the earnings upside from
lower NGV and LPG subsidy losses
will more than make up for the
downside from lower oil prices,
leading to a valuation rerating for PTT
over the next 12 months. This is
premised on the governments aim to
cut the subsidy and equalise tax
across the energy products. Our
SOP-based target price of THB436
already includes the upside from the
NGV price increase.
Financial Summary
400
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
2,793,833
215,683
104,608
36.63
(1.0%)
10.05
13.01
3.54%
5.78
9.92
41.9%
1.74
18.0%
Dec-13A
2,842,688
218,358
94,652
33.12
(9.6%)
11.11
12.99
3.53%
5.74
17.00
37.2%
1.54
14.7%
Dec-14F
2,861,582
226,846
105,720
37.01
11.7%
9.94
14.81
4.02%
5.47
21.73
31.8%
1.40
14.7%
0%
1.07
Dec-15F
2,971,029
257,661
122,350
42.84
15.7%
8.59
17.13
4.66%
4.70
13.96
24.8%
1.26
15.5%
0%
1.16
Dec-16F
3,149,221
261,260
128,075
44.84
4.7%
8.21
17.94
4.87%
4.33
8.32
15.1%
1.15
14.7%
0%
1.17
PTTThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
2,842,688
268,231
218,358
(76,315)
142,043
(20,394)
27,079
14,090
162,817
0
162,817
(47,692)
Dec-14F
2,861,582
292,662
226,846
(79,322)
147,524
(20,893)
31,867
12,951
171,448
0
171,448
(42,862)
Dec-15F
2,971,029
314,111
257,661
(86,765)
170,896
(20,644)
31,867
12,951
195,069
0
195,069
(48,767)
Dec-16F
3,149,221
321,095
261,260
(93,367)
167,893
(20,396)
37,371
19,451
204,319
0
204,319
(51,080)
115,125
(20,473)
0
128,586
(22,867)
0
146,302
(23,952)
0
153,239
(25,164)
0
94,652
94,652
94,652
105,720
105,720
105,720
122,350
122,350
122,350
128,075
128,075
128,075
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
158,903
277,590
44,172
42,479
523,144
642,437
246,078
21,252
368,811
1,278,578
42,899
Dec-14F
170,142
279,435
44,466
42,479
536,522
669,002
262,165
21,678
387,574
1,340,419
42,899
Dec-15F
203,136
290,123
46,167
44,703
584,128
699,644
278,252
21,678
453,881
1,453,455
42,899
Dec-16F
280,535
307,523
48,936
44,321
681,314
686,941
299,844
21,678
472,406
1,480,868
42,899
303,807
47,414
394,120
422,563
305,827
59,702
408,427
417,563
317,524
59,702
420,124
412,563
336,568
59,702
439,168
407,563
129,586
552,149
32,274
978,543
682,647
140,532
823,178
105,252
522,815
32,275
963,518
751,234
162,189
913,424
155,183
567,746
32,275
1,020,146
831,297
186,141
1,017,438
161,439
569,002
32,275
1,040,446
910,432
211,305
1,121,737
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-12A
215,683
(27,015)
15,419
Dec-13A
218,358
(27,079)
12,888
Dec-14F
226,846
(31,867)
(32,562)
Dec-15F
257,661
(31,867)
(24,291)
Dec-16F
261,260
(37,371)
(18,012)
64,927
18,876
(19,747)
(46,516)
221,628
(114,763)
0
10,912
(74,231)
(178,082)
62,408
0
0
(42,884)
(8,943)
8,547
(20,394)
(47,692)
135,685
(110,494)
0
15,779
(647)
(95,362)
21,547
0
0
(37,132)
21,949
22,867
(20,893)
(42,862)
143,479
(105,888)
0
15,779
1
(90,107)
(5,000)
0
0
(37,132)
20,865
23,952
(20,644)
(48,767)
176,908
(117,407)
0
15,779
1
(101,626)
0
0
0
(42,288)
31,658
25,164
(20,396)
(51,080)
191,223
(80,664)
0
15,779
0
(64,884)
0
0
0
(48,940)
(42,277)
(22,753)
20,792
105,953
63,292
(3,979)
(19,563)
20,759
61,870
60,717
0
(42,132)
11,240
48,372
74,265
0
(42,288)
32,994
75,282
95,926
0
(48,940)
77,399
126,339
146,734
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Jan-10
Jan-11
PTT
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
163
Market Cap
Free Float
US$14,753m
US$25.49m
33.7%
THB484,338m
THB831.1m
3,970 m shares
Current
THB122.0
Target
THB160.0
Prev. Target
THB160.0
Up/Downside
31.1%
Conviction|
Downside priced in
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-15.8
-24.8
-40.2
Absolute
-17.0
-26.3
Major shareholders
-26.1
% held
PTT Plc
State Street Bank and Trust Co.
65.4
1.8
Limited downside
We estimate that every US$10/bbl
drop in oil price will result in a 13%
decline in PTTEPs earnings from our
base case of US$90/bbl in 2015-16.
Price Close
104.4
150.0
87.3
130.0
70.1
110.0
30
53.0
Vol m
20
10
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
A recovery play
We believe PTTEP will be an
attractive E&P play with more gas
earnings and volume growth to help
cushion the earnings downside from
lower oil prices. While in the shortterm, its earnings could face downside
risk from further declines in oil prices,
we think that in the medium- to longterm, its earnings growth should
continue given that oil prices should
recover, normalising at between
US$70 and US$90/bbl.
Financial Summary
170.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
212,537
149,691
57,316
15.47
11.8%
7.24
5.22
4.28%
3.31
NA
3.63%
1.48
23.3%
Dec-13A
226,346
153,259
58,626
14.77
(4.5%)
8.26
5.32
4.36%
3.38
147.3
9.49%
1.33
16.9%
Dec-14F
233,524
163,538
59,288
14.93
1.1%
8.17
5.38
4.41%
3.17
19.7
8.88%
1.21
15.5%
0%
1.00
Dec-15F
237,031
172,008
60,197
15.16
1.5%
8.05
5.46
4.47%
2.95
12.9
5.42%
1.11
14.4%
0%
1.05
Dec-16F
228,646
170,634
58,023
14.62
(3.6%)
8.35
5.26
4.31%
2.98
20.1
5.47%
1.03
12.8%
0%
1.03
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
226,346
209,189
153,259
(50,351)
102,908
(5,973)
(46)
2,477
99,366
0
99,366
(40,740)
Dec-14F
233,524
221,242
163,538
(57,366)
106,171
(4,589)
(46)
2,477
104,013
0
104,013
(44,726)
Dec-15F
237,031
230,579
172,008
(64,242)
107,766
(4,589)
(46)
2,477
105,608
0
105,608
(45,411)
Dec-16F
228,646
227,133
170,634
(66,680)
103,954
(4,589)
(46)
2,477
101,796
0
101,796
(43,772)
58,626
0
0
59,288
0
0
60,197
0
0
58,023
0
0
58,626
58,626
58,626
59,288
59,288
59,288
60,197
60,197
60,197
58,023
58,023
58,023
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
50,468
2,977
12,506
33,035
98,986
404,177
933
0
140,978
546,088
7,065
Dec-14F
51,582
3,072
12,903
33,035
100,591
440,831
871
0
140,978
582,679
9,120
Dec-15F
65,472
3,118
13,096
33,035
114,721
465,449
809
0
140,977
607,235
11,176
Dec-16F
65,472
3,008
12,633
33,035
114,148
468,129
746
0
184,634
653,509
13,233
9,601
63,231
79,896
77,933
9,905
63,231
82,256
77,933
10,054
63,231
84,460
77,933
9,698
73,285
96,216
77,933
108,545
186,478
14,993
281,367
363,704
0
363,704
108,545
186,478
14,993
283,727
399,542
0
399,542
108,544
186,477
14,993
285,931
436,023
0
436,023
108,545
186,478
14,993
297,687
469,968
0
469,968
Dec-13A
6.5%
2.4%
67.7%
(8.70)
91.6
15.91
41.0%
36.0%
10.73
239
150
22.2%
23.3%
Dec-14F
3.2%
6.7%
70.0%
(8.93)
100.6
20.89
43.0%
36.0%
4.73
378
290
20.4%
22.1%
Dec-15F
1.5%
5.2%
72.6%
(5.95)
109.8
21.20
43.0%
36.0%
4.76
735
565
19.3%
20.8%
Dec-16F
(3.5%)
(0.8%)
74.6%
(6.47)
118.4
20.45
43.0%
36.0%
4.90
3,112
2,389
17.8%
18.7%
Dec-13A
105.0
3.4%
N/A
N/A
0.6
Dec-14F
93.0
12.6%
N/A
N/A
0.6
Dec-15F
90.0
6.2%
N/A
N/A
0.5
Dec-16F
90.0
-1.5%
N/A
N/A
0.5
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
153,259
46
9,853
Dec-14F
163,538
46
(187)
Dec-15F
172,008
46
(91)
Dec-16F
170,634
46
218
0
2,431
(5,973)
(40,740)
118,876
(118,470)
16
0
0
(118,454)
2,867
0
0
(23,026)
0
2,431
(4,589)
(44,726)
116,513
(94,020)
16
0
0
(94,004)
2,055
0
0
(23,450)
0
2,431
(4,589)
(45,411)
124,393
(88,860)
16
0
0
(88,844)
2,056
0
0
(23,715)
8,822
46
(4,589)
(43,772)
131,404
(69,360)
16
0
0
(69,344)
(37,982)
0
0
(24,079)
0
(20,159)
(19,737)
3,289
6,888
0
(21,395)
1,114
24,565
27,592
0
(21,659)
13,890
37,605
40,632
0
(62,060)
(0)
24,079
67,143
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Jan-10
Jan-11
PTT
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
165
PetrochemicalThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$7,657m
US$20.72m
30.0%
THB251,368m
THB675.5m
4,505 m shares
Current
THB55.75
Target
THB75.00
Prev. Target
THB70.00
Up/Downside
34.5%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
PTTGC is facing a mix of both head and tailwinds. Its earnings growth
is driven by the tailwinds of its volume growth post GSP#5 shutdown
and the rising olefin margin on industry upcycle in 2015-16. This will
be partly offset by the headwinds from weakening oil prices given its
gas feedstock cost will decline slower than the oil-driven product price.
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-8.9
-10.0
-43.3
Absolute
-10.1
-11.5
-29.2
Major shareholders
% held
PTT Plc
49.0
Vol m
Price Close
121.0
78.0
109.3
73.0
97.7
68.0
86.0
63.0
74.3
58.0
62.7
53.0
50
40
30
20
10
51.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
83.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
565,617
53,930
34,001
6.65
(9.2%)
8.38
3.40
6.10%
6.31
61.89
34.0%
1.13
14.2%
Dec-13A
552,881
54,914
33,277
7.29
9.5%
7.65
3.33
5.97%
5.95
15.52
33.4%
1.05
14.2%
Dec-14F
534,553
53,906
31,767
7.05
(3.2%)
7.91
3.18
5.70%
5.78
9.29
26.5%
1.01
13.0%
0%
1.14
Dec-15F
545,413
56,727
35,988
7.99
13.3%
6.98
3.60
6.45%
5.18
8.61
18.8%
0.95
14.0%
0%
1.14
Dec-16F
539,239
53,739
41,402
9.19
15.0%
6.07
4.14
7.43%
5.12
6.76
11.4%
0.90
15.2%
0%
1.21
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-13A
552,881
68,945
54,914
(16,737)
38,177
(4,525)
(78)
341
33,916
902
34,818
(1,976)
Dec-14F
534,553
63,951
53,906
(17,060)
36,845
(3,964)
535
2,359
35,775
0
35,775
(3,638)
Dec-15F
545,413
66,968
56,727
(17,903)
38,824
(3,826)
535
4,718
40,251
0
40,251
(3,892)
Dec-16F
539,239
63,775
53,739
(18,745)
34,993
(3,691)
535
14,153
45,990
0
45,990
(4,218)
32,841
436
0
32,138
(371)
0
36,359
(371)
0
41,773
(371)
0
33,277
32,823
32,823
31,767
31,767
31,767
35,988
35,988
35,988
41,402
41,402
41,402
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
21,244
58,388
50,238
30,644
160,513
231,249
13,322
0
27,278
271,848
22,064
Dec-14F
26,665
56,452
48,573
30,644
162,334
229,189
14,568
0
27,278
271,034
22,064
Dec-15F
34,920
57,599
49,559
30,644
172,723
226,286
15,814
0
27,278
269,378
22,064
Dec-16F
44,724
56,947
48,998
30,644
181,313
222,540
17,060
0
27,278
266,878
22,064
53,455
7,688
83,207
81,103
51,683
7,688
81,434
72,605
52,733
7,688
82,484
64,109
52,136
7,688
81,888
55,615
22,819
103,922
0
187,128
238,503
6,731
245,233
22,819
95,424
0
176,858
249,408
7,102
256,510
22,819
86,928
0
169,412
265,216
7,473
272,688
22,819
78,434
0
160,322
280,026
7,844
287,870
Dec-13A
(2.3%)
1.82%
9.9%
(18.18)
52.94
6.27
5.7%
46.3%
36.68
34.42
38.02
7.63%
11.4%
Dec-14F
(3.3%)
(1.84%)
10.1%
(15.10)
55.36
6.67
10.2%
45.0%
39.21
38.32
40.77
7.66%
11.0%
Dec-15F
2.0%
5.23%
10.4%
(11.38)
58.87
7.20
9.7%
45.0%
38.16
37.43
39.83
8.17%
11.4%
Dec-16F
(1.1%)
(5.27%)
10.0%
(7.32)
62.16
6.66
9.2%
45.0%
38.87
37.93
40.36
7.40%
10.1%
Dec-13A
110.0
0.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
107.0
0.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
105.0
0.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
100.0
0.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
54,914
78
(7,340)
Dec-14F
53,906
(535)
1,829
Dec-15F
56,727
(535)
(1,084)
Dec-16F
53,739
(535)
616
(729)
3,889
(4,525)
(1,976)
44,312
(15,000)
289
(1,000)
(3,916)
(19,627)
(8,499)
0
0
(21,188)
0
0
(3,964)
(3,638)
47,598
(15,000)
289
(1,000)
3,645
(12,066)
(8,498)
0
0
(20,861)
(0)
2,359
(3,826)
(3,892)
49,749
(15,000)
289
(1,000)
3,645
(12,066)
(8,496)
0
0
(20,180)
(1)
11,795
(3,691)
(4,218)
57,706
(15,000)
289
(1,000)
3,645
(12,066)
(8,494)
0
0
(26,591)
(4,598)
(34,285)
(9,600)
16,186
30,769
(751)
(30,110)
5,421
27,034
41,059
(751)
(29,427)
8,255
29,187
43,074
(751)
(35,836)
9,803
37,145
50,896
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Indorama Ventures
Jan-13
Jan-14
167
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Quality Houses
QH TB / QH.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,097m
US$3.59m
41.0%
THB36,000m
THB116.7m
9,184 m shares
Current
THB3.92
Target
THB5.53
Prev. Target
THB5.04
Up/Downside
41.2%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-5.9
-4.3
21.1
Absolute
-7.1
-5.8
Major shareholders
35.2
% held
24.8
10.8
7.1
149.0
4.10
137.0
3.60
125.0
3.10
113.0
2.60
101.0
2.10
150
89.0
Vol m
100
50
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Upbeat targets
QH remains optimistic that its FY15
presales and revenues will grow by
20% from the FY14 presales target of
THB21.4bn and sales revenue target
of THB20bn. The company plans to
grow its presence more in provincial
markets, with an expected upcountry
contribution of 20% in FY15 from 15%
in FY14. The higher-end segment mix
should remain at 20% and the
majority is likely to come from the
mid- to lower-end segment. The
condo mix should form 20-25% and
SDH and TH should make up the
remainder.
Attractive valuation
Stay invested for the companys
improving
earnings
outlook,
expanding ROE and attractive
valuations on both a P/E and RNAV
of THB5.4 (more than a 30% discount
to RNAV/share). Its dividend yield is
also another return accretion for
investing in QH.
Financial Summary
4.60
Dec-13
Dec-12A
13,077
1,632
2,450
0.27
187%
14.69
0.13
3.40%
13.28
39.28
131%
2.28
16.9%
Dec-13A
19,699
3,225
3,307
0.36
35%
10.89
0.18
4.59%
8.26
22.28
108%
2.08
20.0%
Dec-14F
21,275
3,853
3,638
0.40
10%
9.90
0.20
5.05%
7.82
36.94
116%
1.87
19.9%
1.72%
1.10
Dec-15F
24,400
4,620
4,349
0.47
20%
8.28
0.24
6.04%
6.38
12.42
88%
1.65
21.2%
3.35%
1.16
Dec-16F
27,988
5,350
5,083
0.55
17%
7.08
0.28
7.06%
5.41
27.26
71%
1.46
21.9%
3.85%
1.19
Quality HousesThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
19,699
6,387
3,225
(232)
2,993
(228)
943
235
7,337
0
3,943
(636)
Dec-14F
21,275
7,233
3,853
(236)
3,617
(284)
1,000
215
8,164
0
4,547
(909)
Dec-15F
24,400
8,418
4,620
(228)
4,392
(281)
1,150
175
9,462
0
5,436
(1,087)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
27,988
9,656
5,350
(228)
5,122
(266)
1,323
175
10,887
0
6,353
(1,271)
3,307
0
0
3,638
0
0
4,349
0
0
5,083
0
0
3,307
3,307
3,307
3,638
3,638
3,638
4,349
4,349
4,349
5,083
5,083
5,083
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
1,268
Dec-15F
1,665
Dec-16F
1,555
91
29,138
943
31,803
854
8,146
848
0
9,848
4,308
96
36,729
20
38,112
896
8,114
0
0
9,010
6,500
101
36,065
20
37,851
941
8,128
0
0
9,069
5,500
106
37,391
21
39,072
988
8,142
0
0
9,130
5,000
882
2,290
7,481
16,012
927
2,405
9,831
17,200
973
2,525
8,998
15,300
1,022
2,651
8,674
14,000
882
16,894
0
24,374
17,277
0
17,277
830
18,030
0
27,861
19,262
0
19,262
830
16,130
0
25,128
21,792
0
21,792
830
14,830
0
23,504
24,700
0
24,700
Dec-13A
50.6%
55.0%
33.6%
(2.04)
1.88
28.01
16.1%
22.2%
1.66
805
23.13
14.8%
16.9%
Dec-14F
8.0%
12.9%
35.1%
(2.44)
2.10
25.43
20.0%
22.6%
1.60
856
23.51
17.6%
18.0%
Dec-15F
14.7%
15.8%
35.4%
(2.08)
2.37
29.98
20.0%
23.4%
1.47
831
21.69
17.1%
19.7%
Dec-16F
14.7%
14.3%
35.3%
(1.90)
2.69
36.30
20.0%
23.8%
1.35
733
19.91
20.1%
22.4%
Dec-13A
5,300.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
32.4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
17.2%
Dec-14F
4,800.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
17.0%
Dec-15F
4,200.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16.5%
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16.2%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
3,225
Dec-14F
3,853
Dec-15F
4,620
Dec-16F
5,350
548
232
(7,551)
236
705
228
(1,282)
228
668
(228)
(727)
3,486
(43)
0
1,807
(284)
(636)
(2,811)
(45)
0
1,268
(281)
(918)
5,394
(47)
0
3
(266)
(1,087)
2,718
(49)
0
0
217
174
(2,044)
0
0
451
406
3,380
0
0
451
404
(2,900)
0
0
452
403
(1,800)
0
(1,654)
(1,819)
(2,174)
(2,541)
18
(3,679)
482
2,043
(327)
(5,402)
1,112
(3,230)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,630
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
169
IPPThailand
December 12, 2014
Ratchaburi Electricity
RATCH TB / RATC.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,705m
US$1.70m
38.4%
THB88,813m
THB55.26m
1,450 m shares
Current
THB61.25
Target
THB69.00
Prev. Target
THB69.00
Up/Downside
12.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
Relative
0.0
4.4
6.0
Absolute
-1.2
2.9
20.1
Major shareholders
12M
% held
EGAT
Nortrust Nominees Ltd
Littledown Nominees Ltd
45.0
9.1
6.5
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
64.0
109.0
59.0
104.5
54.0
100.0
49.0
95.5
44.0
5
4
3
2
1
91.0
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
55,591
10,302
7,726
3.68
9.8%
16.69
2.27
3.69%
10.46
49.94
33.3%
1.68
10.6%
Dec-13A
50,850
9,484
6,187
3.50
(5.1%)
17.59
2.27
3.69%
10.87
NA
23.5%
1.63
9.4%
Dec-14F
56,382
11,320
6,780
4.68
33.7%
13.15
2.27
3.69%
8.51
9.02
10.5%
1.53
12.0%
0%
0.99
Dec-15F
55,681
10,655
7,369
5.08
8.7%
12.10
2.40
3.90%
8.41
8.91
(1.1%)
1.43
12.2%
0%
1.07
Dec-16F
55,387
11,285
9,436
6.51
28.0%
9.45
2.80
4.55%
7.21
7.45
(13.2%)
1.31
14.5%
0%
1.23
Ratchaburi ElectricityThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
50,850
11,246
9,484
(3,724)
5,761
(1,222)
958
1,978
7,475
0
7,475
(1,294)
Dec-14F
56,382
13,274
11,320
(4,387)
6,934
(1,164)
1,417
1,402
8,588
0
8,588
(1,665)
Dec-15F
55,681
12,585
10,655
(4,387)
6,269
(1,028)
2,331
1,542
9,114
0
9,114
(1,575)
Dec-16F
55,387
13,204
11,285
(4,387)
6,898
(889)
3,688
1,696
11,393
0
11,393
(1,788)
6,182
5
0
6,924
(143)
0
7,539
(170)
0
9,606
(170)
0
6,187
5,071
5,071
6,780
6,780
6,780
7,369
7,369
7,369
9,436
9,436
9,436
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
9,404
8,885
2,541
68
20,900
41,846
18,245
5,732
2,181
68,004
14,736
Dec-14F
16,237
8,885
2,766
76
27,964
39,149
18,245
5,732
2,181
65,307
14,736
Dec-15F
23,174
8,885
2,766
75
34,900
36,453
18,245
5,732
2,181
62,611
14,736
Dec-16F
31,574
8,885
2,707
75
43,241
33,766
18,245
5,732
2,181
59,924
14,736
7,757
458
22,951
7,729
8,444
508
23,687
7,729
8,442
501
23,679
7,729
8,263
499
23,497
7,729
2,684
10,413
0
33,364
54,701
838
55,539
2,684
10,413
0
34,101
58,190
981
59,171
2,684
10,413
0
34,092
62,268
1,151
63,418
2,684
10,413
0
33,910
67,934
1,320
69,254
Dec-13A
(8.5%)
(7.9%)
18.7%
(9.01)
37.72
3.53
17.3%
53.2%
47.64
21.73
72.24
10.1%
7.55%
Dec-14F
10.9%
19.4%
20.1%
(4.30)
40.13
5.13
19.4%
48.5%
57.52
22.47
68.59
13.1%
8.92%
Dec-15F
(1.2%)
(5.9%)
19.1%
0.49
42.94
4.64
17.3%
47.2%
58.24
23.43
71.50
12.6%
7.87%
Dec-16F
(0.5%)
5.9%
20.4%
6.28
46.85
5.10
15.7%
43.0%
58.72
23.74
72.47
14.6%
8.29%
Dec-13A
22,693.7
5,600.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
22,122.1
5,600.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
22,595.2
5,660.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
27,798.6
6,320.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
9,484
958
(4,492)
Dec-14F
11,320
1,417
504
Dec-15F
10,655
2,331
(7)
Dec-16F
11,285
3,688
(123)
9,080
0
(1,222)
(1,559)
12,250
(8,106)
0
(724)
4,763
(4,067)
(9,338)
0
0
(3,260)
5,378
0
(1,164)
(1,907)
15,548
(7,083)
0
0
1,417
(5,666)
0
0
0
(3,292)
4,604
0
(1,028)
(1,797)
14,759
(7,083)
0
0
2,331
(4,752)
0
0
0
(3,292)
3,382
0
(889)
(1,984)
15,359
(7,074)
0
0
3,688
(3,386)
0
0
0
(3,770)
(114)
(12,711)
(4,528)
(1,154)
9,817
242
(3,049)
6,832
9,882
11,234
222
(3,070)
6,937
10,007
11,359
196
(3,574)
8,400
11,974
13,326
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Glow Energy
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Ratchaburi Electricity
171
RetailThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,489m
US$2.69m
38.0%
THB48,869m
THB87.61m
1,111 m shares
Current
THB44.00
Target
THB66.00
Prev. Target
THB66.00
Up/Downside
50.0%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-9.9
-20.3
-31.1
Absolute
-11.1
-21.8
Major shareholders
-17.0
% held
62.0
3.9
3.2
Price Close
Financial Summary
62.0
112.0
57.0
100.8
52.0
89.5
47.0
78.3
42.0
6
67.0
Vol m
4
2
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
23,460
3,426
1,658
1.49
14.1%
29.47
0.90
2.05%
13.29
28.82
(27.8%)
4.73
16.8%
Dec-13A
26,359
3,705
1,986
1.79
19.8%
24.61
0.90
2.05%
12.51
NA
(15.7%)
4.31
18.3%
Dec-14F
28,591
4,345
1,972
1.78
(0.7%)
24.79
0.89
2.02%
11.08
NA
0.2%
3.96
16.7%
0%
0.98
Dec-15F
34,362
5,886
2,667
2.40
35.3%
18.32
1.20
2.73%
8.31
44.28
5.1%
3.58
20.5%
0%
1.08
Dec-16F
41,061
7,558
3,548
3.19
33.0%
13.77
1.60
3.63%
6.45
23.26
2.5%
3.17
24.4%
0%
1.18
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
26,359
7,972
3,705
-1,418
2,286
37
358
0
2,682
0
2,682
-456
Dec-14F
28,591
8,999
4,345
-1,927
2,418
6
358
0
2,783
0
2,783
-557
Dec-15F
34,362
11,038
5,886
-2,427
3,459
-29
358
0
3,789
0
3,789
-758
Dec-16F
41,061
13,267
7,558
-2,810
4,749
-48
358
0
5,059
0
5,059
-1,012
2,226
-241
2,226
-254
3,031
-364
4,048
-500
1,986
1,986
1,986
1,972
1,972
1,972
2,667
2,667
2,667
3,548
3,548
3,548
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
1,882
739
1,667
522
4,810
9,132
1,299
2,767
822
14,020
0
0
4,407
2,222
6,629
0
Dec-14F
470
789
1,665
304
3,228
13,017
1,657
2,555
822
18,051
500
0
5,116
2,222
7,838
0
Dec-15F
240
942
1,982
304
3,469
15,786
2,015
2,359
822
20,983
1,000
0
6,090
2,222
9,312
0
Dec-16F
568
1,127
2,362
304
4,361
18,158
2,374
2,178
822
23,531
1,000
0
7,258
2,222
10,480
0
188
188
0
6,818
11,343
670
12,013
188
188
0
8,026
12,329
924
13,253
188
188
0
9,501
13,662
1,288
14,950
188
188
0
10,668
15,436
1,788
17,224
Dec-13A
12.4%
8.1%
14.1%
1.69
10.21
N/A
17.0%
50.3%
9.30
29.71
86.90
24.6%
20.3%
Dec-14F
8.5%
17.3%
15.2%
-0.03
11.10
193.4
20.0%
50.0%
9.76
31.04
88.71
21.4%
18.9%
Dec-15F
20.2%
35.5%
17.1%
-0.68
12.30
102.5
20.0%
50.0%
9.20
28.54
87.69
23.4%
23.3%
Dec-16F
19.5%
28.4%
18.4%
-0.39
13.90
95.0
20.0%
50.0%
9.22
28.60
87.89
27.4%
27.8%
Dec-13A
N/A
N/A
34
2.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
N/A
N/A
41
-4.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
N/A
N/A
48
4.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
N/A
N/A
55
6.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
3,705
Dec-14F
4,345
Dec-15F
5,886
Dec-16F
7,558
121
661
504
602
37
-456
3,407
-4,266
0
0
808
-3,457
0
0
6
-557
4,456
-5,600
0
0
219
-5,381
500
0
-29
-758
5,604
-5,000
0
0
0
-5,000
500
0
-48
-1,012
7,101
-5,000
0
0
0
-5,000
0
0
-1,000
-986
-1,333
-1,774
-91
-1,090
-1,141
-51
-51
0
-486
-1,412
-426
-913
0
-833
-230
1,104
637
0
-1,774
327
2,101
2,151
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Big C Supercentre
Jan-12
CP All
Jan-13
Jan-14
Robinson Department Store
173
Telco - MobileThailand
December 12, 2014
Samart I-Mobile
SIM TB / SIM.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$461.1m
US$1.37m
55.5%
THB15,137m
THB44.34m
4,373 m shares
Current
THB3.44
Target
THB4.60
Prev. Target
THB4.60
Up/Downside
33.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
2014s earnings were driven by solid smartphone sales growth and the
debut of its DTV Mobile. Although sales fell in 3Q14, they are likely to
recover in 4Q14/2015, supported by the launch of new handset models
that satisfy consumer needs and an expected large order by operators.
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.0
-10.8
-8.6
Absolute
-1.2
-12.3
5.5
Major shareholders
% held
70.0
0.9
0.9
Continuing growth
SIMs revenue and profit jumped
more than 400% yoy in 2013 and
around 25% in 2014, thanks to the
transition from 2G to 3G in Thailand.
Although
this
abnormally-high
growth rate should normalise in
2014 (13% CAGR), we expect another
push from the soon-to-be fully
operational 4G as this transition
should boost smartphone demand in
the upcountry. And with the market
gearing towards lower-cost devices,
SIMs attractively-priced and quality
products, coupled with better
services, should help it capture a
larger market share.
Vol m
Price Close
110.5
3.50
98.0
3.00
85.5
2.50
500
400
300
200
100
73.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Still attractive
We like SIM for its leading position
in the Thai mobile market, its solid
financials, and growth potential from
overseas expansion, which should
drive a 13% net profit CAGR in 15-17
Financial Summary
4.00
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
6,940
464
6.7%
161
0.04
73%
81.32
0.01
0.29%
35.21
26.01
57.9%
7.4%
Dec-13A
10,239
1,082
10.6%
807
0.19
354%
17.90
0.07
2.17%
15.64
NA
61.4%
29.2%
Dec-14F
12,935
1,299
10.0%
1,007
0.24
23%
14.58
0.09
2.67%
13.07
23.09
49.0%
30.0%
0%
0.99
Dec-15F
14,195
1,410
9.9%
1,109
0.26
10%
13.30
0.11
3.33%
11.89
32.46
36.2%
28.0%
0%
0.89
Dec-16F
15,825
1,551
9.8%
1,270
0.30
14%
11.66
0.13
3.67%
10.83
11.89
31.6%
27.5%
0%
0.84
Samart I-MobileThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
10,239
2,744
1,082
(198)
884
(130)
0
62
843
Dec-14F
12,935
3,240
1,299
(200)
1,099
(143)
0
62
1,046
Dec-15F
14,195
3,496
1,410
(203)
1,207
(147)
0
62
1,149
Dec-16F
15,825
3,829
1,551
(205)
1,345
(123)
0
62
1,311
815
(5)
1,018
(6)
1,121
(6)
1,284
(7)
811
(4)
1,013
(5)
1,115
(6)
1,276
(7)
807
834
834
1,007
1,035
1,035
1,109
1,136
1,136
1,270
1,297
1,297
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
411
4,142
1,670
9
6,232
615
278
43
114
1,050
2,359
1
1,608
86
4,055
7
33
40
0
4,095
3,148
40
3,188
Dec-14F
509
4,873
1,521
9
6,913
627
278
43
102
1,050
2,359
7
1,681
84
4,131
5
Dec-15F
771
5,348
1,679
9
7,807
635
278
43
29
985
2,359
5
1,855
85
4,304
4
Dec-16F
743
6,054
1,882
9
8,689
641
278
43
38
1,000
2,359
4
2,080
85
4,527
3
29
33
0
4,164
3,755
44
3,798
75
79
0
4,383
4,360
49
4,409
30
32
0
4,560
5,075
54
5,129
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
1,082
Dec-14F
1,299
Dec-15F
1,410
Dec-16F
1,551
(459)
(425)
(637)
(631)
(78)
(5)
(90)
(184)
(32)
(94)
148
(162)
4
(90)
(6)
782
(184)
57
0
(2)
(129)
4
(94)
(6)
676
(184)
(27)
0
1
(210)
122
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
3
(71)
(7)
1,483
(184)
(27)
0
(1)
(212)
Dec-13A
47.5%
133%
10.6%
(0.45)
0.72
11.71
0.57%
39.2%
128.0
57.27
63.29
23.0%
18.3%
Dec-14F
26.3%
20%
10.0%
(0.42)
0.85
12.49
0.57%
39.0%
118.4
60.08
61.92
22.9%
19.2%
Dec-15F
9.7%
8%
9.9%
(0.36)
0.99
13.08
0.57%
44.3%
122.3
54.59
60.32
22.7%
19.1%
Dec-16F
11.5%
10%
9.8%
(0.37)
1.15
19.39
0.57%
42.8%
122.7
54.32
60.03
23.5%
19.2%
Dec-13A
4.12
N/A
N/A
49.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
0.45
3.60
N/A
N/A
80.7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
0.90
4.50
N/A
N/A
80.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
1.17
4.95
N/A
N/A
81.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
(327)
(403)
(504)
(555)
555
350
98
(252)
(174)
4
(391)
262
653
743
4
(493)
(27)
466
560
2
(545)
726
1,271
1,342
Key Drivers
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Samart I-Mobile
175
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Sansiri Public Co
SIRI TB / SIRI.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$772.1m
US$9.32m
58.1%
THB25,348m
THB303.0m
10,343 m shares
Current
THB1.86
Target
THB2.11
Prev. Target
THB2.12
Up/Downside
13.3%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-6.7
3.1
-8.4
Absolute
-7.9
1.6
5.7
Major shareholders
% held
18.1
16.8
7.4
Capital-raising exercise
In Nov 2014, SIRI raised capital
through a rights issue, which allowed
holders of its common shares on 6 Oct
2014 to buy new shares at a ratio of
three existing shares for one new
share at a price of THB1.30. Each new
share came with one free 3-year
warrant (SIRI-W2), exercisable at
THB2.50 from the second year
onwards (no exercise of warrant
allowed in the first year). In addition,
SIRI offered 300m warrants under
ESOP #7 to its directors and
management employees. The new
shares and warrants were listed in
Nov 2014. The funds raised will be
mainly used for debt repayment and
land acquisition. We deem the
capital-raising exercise necessary,
Price Close
2.00
107.3
1.80
99.6
1.60
91.8
1.40
1000
800
600
400
200
84.0
Vol m
115.1
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
2.20
Dec-13
Dec-12A
30,087
4,626
2,938
0.32
16.4%
6.74
0.17
8.98%
6.61
NA
107%
0.96
18.7%
Dec-13A
28,987
3,290
1,930
0.21
(34.3%)
8.78
0.09
5.01%
13.48
NA
160%
1.13
12.0%
Dec-14F
32,856
4,414
2,521
0.21
(2.3%)
8.99
0.09
4.83%
11.30
257.8
120%
1.15
12.7%
0%
0.96
Dec-15F
36,377
5,766
3,714
0.26
27.8%
7.04
0.13
7.09%
8.61
27.8
93%
1.04
15.5%
0%
1.13
Dec-16F
40,611
7,116
4,791
0.30
13.9%
6.18
0.13
7.26%
6.78
NA
58%
1.03
16.8%
0%
1.22
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
28,987
9,719
3,290
(281)
3,008
(1,103)
0
408
2,313
0
2,313
(384)
0
1,929
1
0
0
0
1,930
1,930
1,930
Dec-14F
32,856
11,623
4,414
(366)
4,048
(1,314)
0
1,488
4,222
(858)
3,364
(844)
0
2,520
1
0
0
0
2,521
2,521
2,521
Dec-15F
36,377
12,237
5,766
(421)
5,345
(1,121)
0
417
4,642
0
4,642
(928)
0
3,713
1
0
0
0
3,714
3,714
3,714
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
40,611
13,853
7,116
(471)
6,645
(1,082)
0
426
5,989
0
5,989
(1,198)
0
4,791
1
0
0
0
4,791
4,791
4,791
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
9,688
Dec-15F
9,894
Dec-16F
8,616
45
45,621
0
52,957
2,700
0
0
4,383
7,083
11,854
53
54,496
0
64,237
2,808
0
0
1,166
3,973
14,000
63
53,636
0
63,593
2,920
0
0
1,148
4,068
11,000
75
56,000
0
64,691
3,037
0
0
1,131
4,168
10,000
2,251
5,284
19,388
22,816
2,296
5,595
21,891
22,900
2,342
5,966
19,308
22,400
2,388
6,372
18,760
17,255
768
23,584
0
42,972
17,067
0
17,068
784
23,684
0
45,574
22,638
(2)
22,636
799
23,199
0
42,507
25,156
(2)
25,154
815
18,070
0
36,831
32,030
(2)
32,028
Dec-13A
(4.1%)
(28.9%)
11.5%
(2.65)
1.65
4.88
16.6%
50.0%
0.55
756.7
38.37
7.5%
6.7%
Dec-14F
9.8%
34.2%
14.1%
(1.94)
1.62
5.92
25.1%
37.3%
0.57
860.5
39.07
7.2%
7.3%
Dec-15F
14.6%
30.6%
16.0%
(1.67)
1.79
7.60
20.0%
50.0%
0.59
817.5
35.06
8.4%
9.1%
Dec-16F
11.7%
23.4%
17.7%
(1.05)
1.80
10.13
20.0%
50.0%
0.63
749.8
32.35
10.7%
11.3%
Dec-13A
8,546.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
32.6%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
23.8%
Dec-14F
22,797.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
32.3%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
21.5%
Dec-15F
17,597.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
32.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
19.2%
Dec-16F
17,597.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
33.4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18.0%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
3,290
Dec-14F
4,414
Dec-15F
5,766
Dec-16F
7,116
(10,908)
(8,838)
896
(2,329)
(1,961)
(323)
(954)
(10,856)
(981)
0
230
(323)
(384)
(4,902)
(474)
0
(556)
(323)
(844)
4,938
(533)
0
(1,697)
(323)
0
2,767
(588)
0
0
(1,228)
(2,208)
11,662
1,839
0
(965)
0
3,233
2,759
2,231
4,825
0
(1,260)
0
33
(500)
(3,500)
64
0
(1,857)
0
33
(555)
(6,145)
3,939
0
(2,395)
(761)
11,776
570
6,366
896
(4,396)
896
(3,705)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
7,291
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
177
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
SC Asset Corporation
SC TB / SC.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$407.4m
US$0.46m
34.5%
THB13,374m
THB15.08m
3,713 m shares
Current
THB3.60
Target
THB4.99
Prev. Target
THB4.59
Up/Downside
38.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
We maintain our Add rating and continue to like SC for its improving
visibility in view of its increasingly solid backlog, sustainable gross
margins and well-contained SG&A. Our target price rises as we roll
over our valuation of 10x P/E (0.5 s.d. above its 5-year mean) to CY16.
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.6
-9.8
-6.3
Absolute
-0.6
-11.3
7.8
Major shareholders
% held
Shinawatra family
Mr. Bhanapot Damapong
Thai NVDR
61.2
4.8
2.3
Cautiously optimistic
targets
Despite its solid 9M14 performance,
SC retained its FY14 targets for both
presales and revenue at THB12bn
each (+16% yoy for the former and
+7.5% yoy for the latter). SC expects
both presales and sales to continue to
grow at 10-15% in FY15, while
anticipating the bottomline to grow
even faster than the topline.
Additionally, SCs rental office
business remains intact with an
occupancy rate of 100% for ST1 and
ST2, and 95% for ST3. The total
rentable area for these three buildings
is 53,965 sq m.
Vol m
Price Close
106.8
3.50
99.9
3.00
92.9
2.50
50
40
30
20
10
86.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Attractive valuations
Given SC's more compelling earnings
growth, valuation discount to its
5-year mean P/E of 9x (vs. the peer
average of 10x CY15 P/E and 9x CY16
P/E) and decent dividend yield of 5%
(vs. the peer average of 4%), we
remain positive about the company's
prospects as a solid long-term
investment.
Financial Summary
4.00
Dec-13
Dec-12A
8,358
1,385
1,219
0.33
12.9%
10.97
0.03
0.90%
7.70
NA
104%
1.40
12.9%
Dec-13A
10,031
1,311
1,082
0.29
(11.3%)
12.36
0.12
3.24%
7.18
NA
116%
1.27
10.8%
Dec-14F
11,804
1,616
1,216
0.33
12.5%
10.99
0.13
3.64%
6.18
17.41
100%
1.10
10.7%
0%
0.89
Dec-15F
13,270
2,055
1,550
0.42
27.5%
8.62
0.17
4.64%
5.46
20.07
85%
0.94
11.8%
0%
0.93
Dec-16F
15,171
2,449
1,853
0.50
19.5%
7.21
0.20
5.55%
4.69
26.15
69%
0.80
12.0%
0%
1.02
SC Asset CorporationThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
10,031
3,566
1,311
(85)
1,226
(8)
0
56
3,528
0
1,273
(192)
Dec-14F
11,804
4,135
1,616
(81)
1,535
(44)
0
29
4,038
0
1,520
(304)
Dec-15F
13,270
4,653
2,055
(84)
1,972
(62)
0
29
4,536
0
1,938
(388)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
15,171
5,294
2,449
(91)
2,357
(70)
0
29
5,162
0
2,316
(463)
1,082
0
0
1,216
0
0
1,550
0
0
1,853
0
0
1,082
1,082
1,082
1,216
1,216
1,216
1,550
1,550
1,550
1,853
1,853
1,853
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
981
Dec-15F
1,196
Dec-16F
1,390
63
19,299
550
20,747
6,076
0
60
109
6,246
7,069
68
19,553
592
21,195
6,258
0
60
113
6,431
6,158
73
21,207
699
23,175
6,428
0
60
116
6,604
5,743
79
22,498
752
24,719
7,012
0
60
120
7,192
5,368
627
1,763
9,459
5,993
238
1,057
7,453
7,000
238
1,057
7,038
7,500
239
1,057
6,664
7,500
1,014
7,007
0
16,466
10,527
0
10,527
1,044
8,044
0
15,498
12,128
0
12,128
1,076
8,576
0
15,613
14,165
0
14,165
1,108
8,608
0
15,272
16,638
0
16,638
Dec-13A
20.0%
18.1%
35.5%
(3.29)
2.84
37.18
0%
12.3%
2.32
1,020
29.10
13.7%
15.9%
Dec-14F
17.7%
16.0%
35.0%
(3.28)
3.27
32.42
0%
12.0%
2.03
964
21.44
13.6%
16.6%
Dec-15F
12.4%
12.5%
35.1%
(3.25)
3.82
31.37
0%
13.7%
1.93
897
10.48
14.4%
17.3%
Dec-16F
14.3%
13.8%
34.9%
(3.09)
4.48
32.35
0%
14.4%
1.81
839
9.14
15.3%
18.3%
Dec-13A
1,328.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
35.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
24.5%
Dec-14F
4,807.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
35.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
23.0%
Dec-15F
3,004.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
35.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
21.0%
Dec-16F
4,206.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
34.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20.0%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
1,311
Dec-14F
1,616
Dec-15F
2,055
Dec-16F
2,449
(3,899)
85
(647)
81
(1,658)
84
(1,296)
91
299
(94)
(180)
(2,562)
(161)
0
113
(125)
(192)
765
(110)
0
762
(146)
(304)
709
(143)
0
387
(161)
(388)
991
(122)
0
0
47
(113)
2,425
423
0
(433)
0
16
(94)
96
1
0
(486)
0
16
(127)
84
0
0
(620)
0
17
(106)
(374)
0
0
(741)
345
2,760
(135)
(524)
169
(367)
424
(691)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
835
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
179
CementTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Siam Cement
SCC TB / SCC.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$16,887m
US$13.96m
67.9%
THB554,400m
THB454.7m
1,200 m shares
Current
THB462.0
Target
THB553.0
Prev. Target
THB553.0
Up/Downside
19.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
Relative
4.8
2.8
-1.4
Absolute
3.6
1.3
12.7
Major shareholders
12M
% held
30.0
9.5
1.9
Price Close
116.0
470
111.8
450
107.7
430
103.5
410
99.3
390
95.2
370
6
91.0
Vol m
4
2
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Attractive conglomerate
Given the solid cement growth
expectation, we believe its share price
will start rerating ahead of its
earnings growth momentum in 2015,
after a 2-year consolidation due to
Thailands weak cement demand
growth.
Financial Summary
490
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
407,601
31,434
23,580
19.65
(13.6%)
23.51
12.00
2.60%
20.12
30.56
88.6%
3.87
16.6%
Dec-13A
434,251
46,840
36,719
30.60
55.7%
15.10
15.50
3.35%
13.80
55.64
86.8%
3.42
24.1%
Dec-14F
446,295
55,819
37,069
30.89
1.0%
14.96
12.00
2.60%
11.28
14.58
63.4%
2.97
21.3%
0.01%
Dec-15F
456,360
63,087
42,530
35.44
14.7%
13.04
14.00
3.03%
9.80
15.50
46.6%
2.60
21.2%
(0.83%)
Dec-16F
459,534
67,298
45,025
37.52
5.9%
12.31
16.00
3.46%
8.92
34.82
31.7%
2.30
19.8%
(2.37%)
Siam CementThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
434,251
86,873
46,840
(15,718)
31,123
(8,193)
6,744
13,141
42,814
0
42,814
(5,003)
Dec-14F
446,295
96,962
55,819
(17,163)
38,656
(8,053)
8,040
11,837
50,481
0
50,481
(6,366)
Dec-15F
456,360
105,158
63,087
(18,775)
44,312
(7,854)
9,413
12,429
58,300
0
58,300
(7,333)
Dec-16F
459,534
109,661
67,298
(20,387)
46,911
(7,854)
9,417
13,051
61,524
0
61,524
(7,816)
37,811
(1,091)
0
44,115
(7,046)
0
50,967
(8,437)
0
53,708
(8,683)
0
36,719
36,719
36,719
37,069
37,069
37,069
42,530
42,530
42,530
45,025
45,025
45,025
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
24,418
49,453
55,557
5,702
135,130
183,589
95,679
0
26,235
305,504
33,739
Dec-14F
48,042
53,826
55,870
5,860
163,598
200,442
95,679
0
26,235
322,356
33,739
Dec-15F
68,214
53,735
56,168
5,992
184,110
215,683
95,679
0
26,235
337,597
33,739
Dec-16F
94,991
49,048
55,956
6,034
206,028
229,311
95,679
0
26,235
351,226
33,739
51,211
4,785
89,735
153,103
51,499
18,075
103,314
153,103
51,775
18,186
103,701
153,103
51,579
18,221
103,539
153,103
10,576
163,678
0
253,414
161,989
25,230
187,219
10,576
163,678
0
266,993
186,686
32,276
218,961
10,576
163,678
0
267,379
213,616
40,713
254,328
10,576
163,678
0
267,218
240,641
49,395
290,036
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
46,840
6,744
(8,021)
Dec-14F
55,819
8,040
(4,424)
Dec-15F
63,087
9,413
47
Dec-16F
67,298
9,417
4,697
11,005
6,799
(8,193)
(5,003)
50,170
(32,284)
1
(6,314)
9,762
(28,835)
(11,372)
0
0
(17,999)
20,591
4,249
(8,053)
(6,366)
69,857
(31,834)
0
0
0
(31,834)
0
0
0
(14,400)
5,837
4,211
(7,854)
(7,333)
67,407
(31,635)
0
0
0
(31,635)
0
0
0
(15,600)
(22,397)
4,211
(7,854)
(7,816)
47,555
(31,635)
0
0
0
(31,635)
0
0
0
(18,000)
0
(29,371)
(8,036)
9,963
29,528
0
(14,400)
23,624
38,024
46,077
0
(15,600)
20,173
35,773
43,627
0
(18,000)
(2,079)
15,921
23,775
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
Dec-13A
5.0%
10.0%
1.3%
12.0%
91.2%
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
5.0%
10.0%
0.0%
6.0%
99.0%
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
5.0%
8.0%
0.0%
-17.7%
97.9%
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
5.0%
8.0%
0.0%
14.3%
107.5%
N/A
N/A
4.0
2.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Siam Cement
181
BanksThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$19,644m
US$28.94m
50.0%
THB644,919m
THB942.9m
3,399 m shares
Current
THB190.0
Target
THB203.0
Prev. Target
THB185.0
Up/Downside
6.8%
Conviction|
Normalised stage
CIMB Analyst(s)
We believe SCB will return to its normal growth phase in FY15, with
key drivers from its non-lending business, supported by low operating
costs. Its solid branch network should help it penetrate new markets.
However, we think a valuation rerating is not justified.
Weerapat WONK-URAI
T (66) 2 657 9224
E weerapat.wo@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
3.9
1.8
9.3
Absolute
2.7
0.3
23.4
Major shareholders
% held
23.7
23.1
Vol m
Price Close
110.8
180
106.3
160
101.9
140
97.4
120
25
20
15
10
5
93.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Outlook
SCB continues to leverage on its
strong franchise value with an
emphasis on small-sized SME and
retail customers. A segmentation
strategy will be put in place together
with customers behaviour analysis.
This is to enhance the banks
cross-selling activities and to gain
market share in new segments. On the
wholesale banking front, we expect
SCBs capital market business to
benefit from future M&A activities of
large conglomerates. In our view, the
key management change in FY15 will
not result in a business disruption,
while the banks asset quality should
remain intact and its loan-loss reserve
buffer will be on the rise.
No need to chase
SCBs P/BV-to-ROE for FY15 is
considered premium compared with
that of KBANK. We also do not
foresee superior growth vs. its peers.
As such we maintain our Hold rating
on the stock.
Financial Summary
200
Dec-13
Dec-12A
62,104
40,880
102,985
(9,396)
39,235
11.68
9.5%
16.26
4.50
2.37%
65.6
2.90
19.4%
Dec-13A
73,009
50,523
123,532
(13,641)
50,233
14.96
28.0%
12.70
5.25
2.76%
72.4
2.62
21.7%
Dec-14F
78,858
49,194
128,052
(13,500)
54,134
15.92
6.4%
11.93
5.73
3.02%
82.0
2.32
20.6%
1.10%
1.00
Dec-15F
80,582
55,032
135,615
(14,000)
57,297
16.85
5.8%
11.27
6.07
3.19%
92.2
2.06
19.3%
(2.46%)
0.96
Dec-16F
84,589
62,266
146,854
(15,000)
61,742
18.16
7.8%
10.46
6.54
3.44%
103.2
1.84
18.6%
(5.92%)
0.92
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
73,009
50,523
123,532
(47,317)
76,215
(13,641)
62,574
0
62,574
0
62,574
0
62,574
(11,821)
Dec-14F
78,858
49,194
128,052
(47,843)
80,209
(13,500)
66,709
0
66,709
0
66,709
0
66,709
(12,008)
Dec-15F
80,582
55,032
135,615
(51,035)
84,580
(14,000)
70,580
0
70,580
0
70,580
0
70,580
(12,704)
Dec-16F
84,589
62,266
146,854
(55,798)
91,056
(15,000)
76,056
0
76,056
0
76,056
0
76,056
(13,690)
50,752
(519)
0
0
50,233
50,233
54,701
(567)
0
0
54,134
54,134
57,875
(579)
0
0
57,297
57,297
62,366
(624)
0
0
61,742
61,742
(THBm)
Total Gross Loans
Liquid Assets & Invst. (Current)
Other Int. Earning Assets
Total Gross Int. Earning Assets
Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve
Total Net Interest Earning Assets
Intangible Assets
Other Non-Interest Earning Assets
Total Non-Interest Earning Assets
Cash And Marketable Securities
Long-term Investments
Total Assets
Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank Deposits
Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others
Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities
Bank's Liabilities Under Acceptances
Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-14F
94.8%
95%
28.7%
30.0%
65.1%
86.0%
20.0%
66.9%
0.78%
0.53%
0.205%
Dec-15F
95.3%
95%
29.1%
30.4%
65.5%
87.0%
21.2%
67.5%
0.78%
0.53%
0.206%
Dec-16F
95.8%
96%
28.6%
29.8%
66.3%
87.6%
21.9%
68.4%
0.78%
0.54%
0.208%
Dec-15F
2,020,429
571,749
Dec-16F
2,171,293
600,336
2,415,123
(60,317)
2,354,806
0
143,644
143,644
35,755
0
2,534,206
1,822,911
119,127
103,418
2,045,456
119
240,591
2,286,166
246,272
1,768
248,040
2,457,847
(68,591)
2,389,257
0
145,920
145,920
34,309
0
2,569,486
1,835,671
107,214
104,697
2,047,582
117
241,045
2,288,744
278,939
1,803
280,742
2,592,177
(77,172)
2,515,006
0
149,730
149,730
36,216
0
2,700,952
1,936,633
96,493
108,996
2,142,122
115
243,372
2,385,608
313,504
1,839
315,344
2,771,630
(86,365)
2,685,264
0
153,659
153,659
37,561
0
2,876,484
2,081,881
97,457
113,499
2,292,838
112
230,919
2,523,869
350,739
1,876
352,615
Dec-13A
20.0%
25.8%
22.2%
59.1%
2.44%
5.26%
2.82%
4.25%
4.51%
17.9%
3.04%
18.9%
28.8%
Dec-14F
3.7%
5.2%
6.6%
61.6%
2.06%
4.96%
2.91%
4.31%
4.59%
16.8%
3.09%
18.0%
29.5%
Dec-15F
5.9%
5.4%
5.8%
59.4%
2.12%
4.95%
2.83%
4.27%
4.55%
16.6%
3.06%
18.0%
29.5%
Dec-16F
8.3%
7.7%
7.8%
57.6%
2.09%
4.88%
2.79%
4.21%
4.46%
16.5%
3.03%
18.0%
29.5%
Dec-13A
12.2%
3.2%
23.6%
38.3%
2.2%
157.8%
0.0%
11.8%
15.3%
12.9%
92.1%
2.2%
19.7%
Dec-14F
0.0%
3.2%
-2.6%
37.4%
2.1%
185.5%
0.0%
13.5%
17.1%
0.7%
91.1%
2.1%
9.5%
Dec-15F
6.1%
3.2%
11.9%
37.6%
2.1%
201.7%
0.0%
14.4%
18.0%
5.5%
91.3%
2.1%
13.7%
Dec-16F
8.1%
3.2%
13.1%
38.0%
2.1%
209.0%
0.0%
15.1%
18.5%
7.5%
91.7%
2.1%
14.4%
Key Drivers
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
Jan-11
Dec-14F
1,913,325
544,523
Key Ratios
0.00
Jan-10
Dec-13A
1,910,935
504,188
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Bangkok Bank
Kasikornbank
183
ConstructionThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,196m
US$6.13m
69.2%
THB39,271m
THB199.4m
1,525 m shares
Current
THB25.75
Target
THB23.00
Prev. Target
THB23.00
Up/Downside
-10.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
1M
3M
12M
Relative
0.2
0.5
29.0
Absolute
-1.0
-1.0
43.1
Major shareholders
% held
Charnvirakul family
Equity Plus Co Ltd
23.6
3.0
Vol m
Price Close
150
25.0
130
20.0
110
15.0
90
10.0
100
80
60
40
20
70
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
11.90
23.00
Current
Target
Financial Summary
30.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
19,748
1,455
1,166
0.98
29.1%
26.20
0.55
2.14%
16.27
26.62
(109%)
4.97
19.8%
Dec-13A
22,242
1,923
1,733
1.11
12.6%
23.28
0.32
1.25%
13.75
50.11
(110%)
5.18
21.8%
Dec-14F
21,797
1,936
1,552
1.02
(8.0%)
25.30
0.50
1.94%
15.25
44.84
(112%)
4.69
19.4%
0%
0.99
Dec-15F
22,887
1,933
1,571
1.03
1.2%
25.00
0.52
2.00%
14.57
36.91
(117%)
4.29
17.9%
0%
0.94
Dec-16F
25,176
2,122
1,742
1.14
10.9%
22.55
0.46
1.77%
12.47
27.80
(122%)
3.85
18.0%
0%
0.94
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
22,242
2,094
1,923
(368)
1,555
(29)
(22)
392
1,896
294
2,190
(449)
Dec-14F
21,797
2,071
1,936
(410)
1,526
0
10
405
1,940
0
1,940
(388)
Dec-15F
22,887
2,060
1,933
(422)
1,511
0
12
441
1,964
0
1,964
(393)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
25,176
2,266
2,122
(435)
1,687
0
15
475
2,177
0
2,177
(435)
1,740
(7)
0
1,552
0
0
1,571
0
0
1,742
0
0
1,733
1,500
1,500
1,552
1,552
1,552
1,571
1,571
1,571
1,742
1,742
1,742
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
9,653
9,231
1,398
1,911
22,192
5,501
360
0
13
5,874
0
Dec-15F
11,008
10,216
1,747
2,102
25,072
6,051
363
0
15
6,428
0
Dec-16F
12,715
11,311
2,184
2,312
28,521
6,656
366
0
16
7,038
0
16,202
492
16,694
121
18,471
506
18,977
0
21,057
522
21,578
0
24,005
537
24,542
0
418
539
0
17,233
7,588
189
7,777
460
460
0
19,437
8,378
252
8,630
506
506
0
22,084
9,163
253
9,416
556
556
0
25,098
10,208
253
10,461
Dec-13A
12.6%
32.1%
8.64%
5.60
4.98
53.25
20.5%
1.8%
38.90
13.05
266.0
(204%)
21.4%
Dec-14F
(2.0%)
0.7%
8.88%
6.33
5.49
N/A
20.0%
35.4%
51.29
23.27
320.8
(254%)
18.5%
Dec-15F
5.0%
(0.2%)
8.45%
7.22
6.01
N/A
20.0%
36.0%
53.73
27.55
346.4
(131%)
16.7%
Dec-16F
10.0%
9.8%
8.43%
8.34
6.69
N/A
20.0%
28.8%
53.88
31.40
359.9
(93%)
17.0%
Dec-13A
51,022
22,242
33,505
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
54,224
21,797
7,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
61,338
22,887
20,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
76,162
25,176
30,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
1,923
Dec-14F
1,936
Dec-15F
1,933
Dec-16F
2,122
516
548
830
594
0
(29)
(449)
2,038
(1,153)
0
(39)
(9)
(1,200)
(141)
339
0
(38)
0
0
(388)
2,064
(904)
0
(152)
(11)
(1,067)
(121)
0
0
(763)
0
0
(393)
2,088
(1,023)
0
(2)
0
(1,024)
0
0
0
(785)
0
0
(435)
2,517
(1,101)
0
(3)
0
(1,104)
0
0
0
(697)
0
(883)
113
876
997
0
(785)
279
1,064
1,064
0
(697)
716
1,413
1,413
0
160
998
697
867
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
(THBm)
Outstanding Orderbook
Order Book Depletion
Orderbook Replenishment
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.)
Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.)
ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.)
Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv)
Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
8,663
8,345
1,118
1,737
19,863
5,001
134
0
12
5,147
0
Jan-11
CH. Karnchang
Jan-12
Jan-13
Italian-Thai Development
Jan-14
Sino-Thai Eng & Construction
185
Property DevelopmentThailand
December 12, 2014
Supalai PCL
SPALI TB / SPAL.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,399m
US$5.56m
56.3%
THB45,918m
THB181.0m
1,717 m shares
Current
THB26.75
Target
THB32.62
Prev. Target
THB31.92
Up/Downside
22.0%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
T (66) 2 657 9229
E wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
3.1
11.1
55.2
Absolute
1.9
9.6
69.3
Major shareholders
% held
Tangmatitham Family
Thai NVDR
HSBC (Singapore) Nominees
28.2
12.7
4.3
We retain our Add rating on SPALI, with its exciting line-up of new
condo launches and stronger earnings in 4Q14 as potential near-term
re-rating catalysts. As we roll over to an end-CY16 valuation, our
target price rises to THB32.62, based on 9x CY16 P/E (1 s.d above its
5-year mean).
Despite the possible risks to its FY14
presales target from the rising
competition in 2H14, we believe that
SPALIs strong fundamentals are
intact. Our FY14-16 EPS is unchanged.
We continue to like SPALI for its
defensive
nature
that
offers
compelling earnings growth, high
margins and a healthy balance sheet
with high ROEs of above 20%.
Vol m
Price Close
160
22.0
137
17.0
115
12.0
25
20
15
10
5
93
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
27.0
Dec-13
Dec-12A
11,649
3,646
2,744
1.60
10.4%
16.74
0.65
2.43%
9.46
24.13
24.7%
3.56
22.8%
Dec-13A
12,742
3,635
2,882
1.68
5.1%
15.93
0.70
2.62%
10.18
40.30
51.5%
3.22
20.9%
Dec-14F
19,551
5,705
4,442
2.59
54.1%
10.34
1.04
3.87%
6.66
29.99
44.4%
2.63
27.2%
0%
1.02
Dec-15F
22,482
7,012
5,479
3.19
23.4%
8.38
1.28
4.77%
5.36
19.07
28.8%
2.17
27.5%
0%
1.11
Dec-16F
25,405
7,936
6,222
3.62
13.6%
7.38
1.45
5.42%
4.61
24.27
18.5%
1.82
26.0%
0%
1.20
Supalai PCLThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
12,742
5,252
3,635
(86)
3,549
128
0
0
5,293
0
3,676
(726)
Dec-14F
19,551
8,092
5,705
(134)
5,571
79
0
0
8,037
0
5,650
(1,130)
Dec-15F
22,482
9,743
7,012
(154)
6,858
89
0
0
9,678
0
6,947
(1,389)
Dec-16F
25,405
11,010
7,936
(174)
7,762
113
0
0
10,949
0
7,875
(1,575)
2,950
(68)
0
4,520
(78)
0
5,557
(78)
0
6,300
(78)
0
2,882
2,882
2,882
4,442
4,442
4,442
5,479
5,479
5,479
6,222
6,222
6,222
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Properties Under Development
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-14F
810
Dec-15F
1,684
Dec-16F
1,691
10
26,463
816
28,080
2,102
0
0
493
2,595
4,626
10
28,062
840
29,722
2,589
0
0
313
2,902
3,800
11
30,570
865
33,131
2,671
0
0
328
2,999
3,000
11
33,394
894
35,990
2,830
0
0
345
3,175
2,000
1,977
5,560
12,164
3,734
2,076
3,701
9,578
5,000
2,180
4,005
9,185
5,000
2,289
4,339
8,628
4,500
69
3,803
0
15,967
14,252
457
14,709
47
5,047
0
14,625
17,471
529
17,999
48
5,048
0
14,234
21,173
723
21,896
50
4,550
0
13,178
25,204
783
25,987
Dec-13A
9.6%
1.2%
41.6%
(4.41)
8.30
60.59
19.7%
45.7%
0.35
1,108
73.10
25.6%
25.9%
Dec-14F
54.2%
54.1%
41.6%
(4.65)
10.18
53.19
20.0%
37.3%
0.19
868
64.55
28.5%
32.8%
Dec-15F
15.1%
20.4%
43.5%
(3.68)
12.33
59.93
20.0%
35.7%
0.17
840
60.97
29.5%
34.7%
Dec-16F
13.1%
13.0%
43.5%
(2.80)
14.68
69.46
20.0%
34.4%
0.16
813
56.81
30.7%
35.5%
Dec-13A
6,641.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
40.6%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.8%
Dec-14F
15,584.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
41.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.8%
Dec-15F
14,411.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
43.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.8%
Dec-16F
6,576.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
43.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.8%
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
Straight Line Adjustment
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Disposals of Investment Properties
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Dec-13A
3,635
Dec-14F
5,705
Dec-15F
7,012
Dec-16F
7,936
(6,500)
86
(1,501)
134
(2,405)
154
(2,715)
174
2,657
96
(831)
(943)
(886)
10
(1,975)
65
(726)
1,568
(487)
10
(274)
76
(1,130)
3,280
(82)
10
(371)
80
(1,389)
3,541
(159)
10
0
(50)
(926)
3,008
0
0
(1,202)
0
0
(477)
440
0
0
(1,777)
0
0
(72)
(800)
0
0
(2,192)
0
0
(149)
(1,500)
(6)
0
(2,489)
(1,316)
491
204
(1,133)
604
(2,388)
604
(3,391)
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Dec-13A
792
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Central Pattana
Hemaraj
187
Technology ComponentsThailand
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$291.2m
US$7.75m
43.9%
THB9,561m
THB253.7m
2,261 m shares
Current
THB4.22
Target
THB3.12
Prev. Target
THB3.12
Up/Downside
-26.1%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Thanakorn CHONGSUKSIRICHOK
T (66) 2 657 9227
E thanakorn.ch@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-29.1
-12.4
-7.5
Absolute
-30.3
-13.9
6.6
Major shareholders
% held
Pongsak Lothongkam
Eagle Mount Asia Equities Ltd.
Thai NVDR Co., Ltd.
43.4
10.1
4.7
The company has resumed production at SVI CWT and expects to fully
ramp up by the end of 2014. This is faster than we expected due to the
rapid machine installation. However, we maintain our Reduce rating,
as we expect soft earnings in 1H15 as production ramps up to be a
de-rating catalyst.
We maintain our target price of
THB3.12, still pegged to 10x FY16
P/E (0.5 s.d. above the industry
mean).
Loyal customers
SVIs FY12 revenue fell by 9% yoy,
when it lost customers due to the
flood in 2011. It was difficult for SVI
to regain customers trust, as they
could easily shift their orders to
other
suppliers.
However,
management has stated that all of its
Price Close
129.3
5.60
117.7
5.10
106.0
4.60
94.3
4.10
82.7
3.60
1000
800
600
400
200
71.0
Vol m
141.0
6.10
Mar-14
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Sep-14
Insurance coverage
Company informs us that insurance
will fully cover the damages
(including business disruption) from
the fire at its SVI HQ factory in
Bangkadi Industrial Estate. SVI HQ
contributed 100% of the groups
FY14 revenue.
Downside scenarios
We think that there are two
downside scenarios for SVIs share
price: 1) worst-case scenario target
price of THB2.17, based on BV per
share in 3Q14, 2) target price of
THB3.72 following a near-term
correction, based on the trough P/BV
of 1.7x during the flood.
Reduce rating
Reiterate Reduce due to our
expectations of softer 1H15 earnings,
as SVI has just resumed production,
and expected low FY15 gross margin
of 9.5% (similar to FY12, after the
flood).
Financial Summary
6.60
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
Price To Sales (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
7,704
524.8
0.26
75.9%
15.96
1.09
0.00
0.00%
14.18
NA
(2.5%)
3.32
27.8%
Dec-13A
8,006
681.8
0.35
31.1%
12.18
1.04
0.00
0.00%
9.61
17.00
(31.9%)
1.94
20.1%
Dec-14F
8,514
715.8
0.34
(2.0%)
12.43
1.04
0.14
3.37%
7.95
13.01
(34.9%)
1.94
15.6%
0.0%
0.81
Dec-15F
7,711
496.7
0.22
(35.4%)
19.24
1.24
0.10
2.34%
10.29
14.76
(41.2%)
1.84
9.8%
11.8%
0.57
Dec-16F
8,354
707.5
0.31
42.4%
13.51
1.14
0.14
3.33%
7.89
17.95
(42.2%)
1.71
13.1%
0.0%
0.81
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-13A
8,006
1,070
723
(296)
427
(19)
0
1,201
1,610
Dec-14F
8,514
1,243
902
(306)
596
(4)
0
461
1,053
Dec-15F
7,711
1,029
721
(296)
424
(3)
0
80
501
Dec-16F
8,354
1,205
913
(286)
627
(3)
0
90
714
1,610
14
1,053
(9)
501
(4)
714
(6)
1,623
0
1,045
0
497
0
708
0
0
497
497
497
0
708
708
708
(941)
682
682
682
(329)
716
716
716
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
1,359
1,960
1,191
632
5,141
1,292
0
23
35
1,351
0
1
1,867
318
2,186
0
Dec-14F
1,720
1,528
1,322
628
5,198
1,464
0
23
35
1,523
0
0
1,507
230
1,737
0
Dec-15F
2,144
1,384
1,217
627
5,372
1,724
0
23
35
1,783
0
0
1,647
249
1,896
0
Dec-16F
2,358
1,499
1,297
629
5,783
1,714
0
23
35
1,773
0
0
1,640
265
1,906
0
2
2
56
2,243
4,249
0
0
58
1,795
4,925
0
0
60
1,956
5,199
0
0
62
1,968
5,588
4,249
4,925
5,199
5,588
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
723
Dec-14F
902
Dec-15F
721
Dec-16F
913
(174)
(59)
389
(202)
1,701
(631)
19
(14)
1,624
(63)
1,317
(987)
4
9
1,185
(500)
832
(701)
3
4
1,248
(600)
1,110
(898)
3
6
932
(400)
(426)
(490)
(646)
0
0
(500)
(2)
0
0
(600)
0
0
0
(400)
0
0
(0)
(322)
(224)
(318)
186
(459)
675
489
1,116
0
(324)
361
684
682
0
(224)
424
648
644
0
(318)
214
532
529
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Dec-13A
3.92%
23.3%
9.0%
0.70
2.18
22.8
0.00%
0.0%
79.12
63.33
91.68
16.8%
11.5%
Dec-14F
6.34%
24.8%
10.6%
0.76
2.17
169.3
0.84%
45.0%
74.77
63.05
84.67
20.0%
12.8%
Dec-15F
(9.43%)
(20.2%)
9.3%
0.95
2.30
132.5
0.84%
45.0%
68.92
69.33
86.13
12.9%
8.3%
Dec-16F
8.33%
26.7%
10.9%
1.04
2.47
208.8
0.84%
45.0%
63.16
64.35
84.15
19.9%
11.5%
Dec-13A
N/A
5.1%
N/A
160.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
85.0
Dec-14F
N/A
1.7%
N/A
167.7
N/A
N/A
N/A
82.5
Dec-15F
N/A
-9.4%
N/A
150.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
76.1
Dec-16F
N/A
8.3%
N/A
162.6
N/A
N/A
N/A
84.7
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
KCE Electronics
Jan-14
SVI Public Company Limited
189
Thai Oil
TOP TB / TOP.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,734m
US$6.03m
40.0%
THB89,761m
THB196.6m
2,040 m shares
Current
THB44.00
Target
THB56.00
Prev. Target
THB48.00
Up/Downside
27.3%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
We expect the large inventory loss on the sharp decline in oil prices to
drag TOP into the red in 2014. However, we believe the company will
see a marked improvement in earnings in 2015-16 driven by a muchimproved GRM on lower costs for fuel, crude premium, and interest.
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-1.6
-15.5
-44.0
Absolute
-2.8
-17.0
-29.9
Major shareholders
% held
PTT Plc
Credit Agricole
49.5
3.1
Price Close
107.0
60.0
95.0
55.0
83.0
50.0
71.0
45.0
59.0
40.0
20
47.0
Vol m
10
5
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Strong momentum
Without the significant inventory loss
on lower oil prices in 2015, we believe
TOP would have seen solid earnings
growth driven mainly by rising GRM
on the back of lower oil prices. The
indirect positive impact could come
from an improved demand outlook
thanks to the lower oil prices.
Limited downside
At its current share price, we believe
TOPs downside is limited, supported
by its replacement cost of THB42/shr.
We believe its share price will rerate
over the next 12 months driven by the
rising GRM and absence of significant
inventory loss.
Financial Summary
65.0
15
Aromatics a drag
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
447,432
19,150
12,320
5.07
(31%)
8.49
2.43
5.65%
5.62
NA
18.3%
1.01
12.4%
Dec-13A
414,599
20,508
10,394
6.62
31%
6.50
2.07
4.81%
4.92
11.11
21.3%
0.97
15.2%
Dec-14F
391,438
6,984
1,290
0.63
(90%)
67.98
0.28
0.66%
16.97
11.76
41.8%
1.00
1.4%
0%
0.34
Dec-15F
388,810
13,611
9,599
4.71
644%
9.14
2.12
4.92%
6.60
4.66
9.9%
0.91
10.4%
0%
1.13
Dec-16F
392,862
14,029
10,454
5.12
9%
8.39
2.31
5.36%
4.85
3.97
(10.7%)
0.86
10.5%
0%
1.10
Thai OilThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
414,599
23,090
20,508
(6,047)
14,461
129
533
(3,111)
12,012
0
12,012
(1,158)
Dec-14F
391,438
9,686
6,984
(8,228)
(1,243)
2,871
560
0
2,188
0
2,188
(438)
Dec-15F
388,810
17,818
13,611
(8,742)
4,869
7,118
588
0
12,574
0
12,574
(2,515)
Dec-16F
392,862
18,350
14,029
(9,062)
4,967
8,029
647
0
13,642
0
13,642
(2,728)
10,854
(460)
0
1,750
(460)
0
10,060
(460)
0
10,914
(460)
0
10,394
13,505
13,505
1,290
1,290
1,290
9,599
9,599
9,599
10,454
10,454
10,454
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
43,815
28,746
48,509
6,079
127,149
65,468
11,156
0
4,746
81,370
2,636
Dec-14F
18,571
27,140
45,799
6,079
97,590
71,407
11,716
0
4,693
87,817
2,547
Dec-15F
36,761
23,329
45,492
6,079
111,661
68,038
12,304
0
4,583
84,926
2,457
Dec-16F
54,044
23,572
45,966
6,079
129,660
65,780
12,951
0
4,356
83,087
2,367
34,852
12,087
49,576
61,385
32,905
1,283
36,735
54,314
24,884
21,421
48,762
44,313
25,143
21,421
48,931
40,311
2,721
64,105
0
113,681
90,810
4,028
94,838
2,721
57,035
0
93,770
87,408
4,228
91,637
2,721
47,034
0
95,796
96,363
4,428
100,791
16,858
57,169
0
106,100
102,017
4,630
106,647
Dec-13A
(7.34%)
7.1%
4.95%
(9.91)
44.51
3.82
9.6%
40.6%
24.58
41.26
29.70
9.29%
12.5%
Dec-14F
(5.59%)
(65.9%)
1.78%
(18.77)
42.85
(1.07)
20.0%
45.0%
26.06
45.08
32.39
(0.82%)
1.8%
Dec-15F
(0.67%)
94.9%
3.50%
(4.91)
47.24
4.56
20.0%
45.0%
23.69
44.91
28.43
2.82%
8.8%
Dec-16F
1.04%
3.1%
3.57%
5.57
50.01
5.09
20.0%
45.0%
21.85
44.69
24.45
3.43%
9.4%
Dec-13A
105.0
0.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
93.0
-10.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
90.0
11.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
90.0
5.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
20,508
533
(4,166)
Dec-14F
6,984
560
2,369
Dec-15F
13,611
588
(3,902)
Dec-16F
14,029
647
(458)
(3,363)
1,297
129
(1,158)
13,780
(21,299)
0
0
17,268
(4,030)
(1,851)
0
0
(5,508)
560
1,297
2,871
(438)
14,204
(14,167)
0
0
9,000
(5,167)
(1,576)
0
0
(4,692)
588
1,297
7,118
(2,515)
16,784
(5,373)
0
0
9,000
3,627
(1,576)
0
0
(645)
647
1,297
8,029
(2,728)
21,463
(6,804)
0
0
9,000
2,196
(1,576)
0
0
(4,800)
2,453
(4,907)
4,843
7,898
13,536
0
(6,268)
2,769
7,461
10,199
0
(2,222)
18,190
18,835
21,480
0
(6,376)
17,283
22,083
24,635
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Thai Oil
191
Telco - OthersThailand
December 12, 2014
Thaicom
THCOM TB / THCOM.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,193m
US$4.79m
58.9%
THB39,180m
THB155.7m
1,096 m shares
Current
THB35.75
Target
THB52.00
Prev. Target
THB52.00
Up/Downside
45.5%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-4.1
-8.0
-21.9
Absolute
-5.3
-9.5
-7.8
Major shareholders
% held
41.1
2.3
1.4
Political dj vu
We are not surprised to see the
military government investigating
Thaicoms concession irregularities
and embarking on the national
satellite project, as both are exactly
what the junta did in 2007-08.
However, it has also been proven that
this kind of political theatre only
affects market sentiment and not
Thaicoms business fundamentals.
113.0
41.0
105.0
39.0
97.0
37.0
89.0
35.0
81.0
33.0
20
73.0
15
Vol m
10
5
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
43.0
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
7,266
3,892
53.6%
174
0.40
NA
89.76
0.40
1.12%
11.22
NA
34.4%
3.1%
Dec-13A
7,896
3,750
47.5%
1,128
1.14
186%
31.43
0.45
1.26%
11.45
NA
31.5%
8.4%
Dec-14F
9,769
5,198
53.2%
1,723
1.70
49%
21.07
0.85
2.37%
7.51
NA
7.0%
11.5%
0%
0.99
Dec-15F
10,832
5,813
53.7%
2,524
2.30
36%
15.52
1.73
4.83%
6.01
9.84
(14.6%)
14.3%
0%
1.10
Dec-16F
11,287
5,916
52.4%
2,666
2.43
6%
14.70
1.82
5.10%
5.35
9.40
(30.1%)
14.1%
0%
1.02
ThaicomThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
7,896
5,157
3,750
(2,088)
1,662
(265)
195
(74)
1,621
(51)
1,466
(339)
Dec-14F
9,769
6,970
5,198
(3,006)
2,192
(257)
195
196
2,325
(137)
2,188
(465)
Dec-15F
10,832
7,618
5,813
(2,937)
2,875
(111)
195
196
3,155
0
3,155
(631)
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Dec-16F
11,287
7,673
5,916
(2,876)
3,041
(99)
195
196
3,332
0
3,332
(666)
1,128
0
0
1,723
0
0
2,524
0
0
2,666
0
0
0
1,128
1,247
1,247
0
1,723
1,860
1,860
0
2,524
2,524
2,524
0
2,666
2,666
2,666
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
3,457
1,442
252
273
5,424
18,205
1,187
933
1,625
21,950
4,344
Dec-14F
3,047
1,706
358
273
5,384
15,499
1,382
933
1,625
19,438
443
Dec-15F
6,491
1,891
380
273
9,035
12,861
1,576
933
1,625
16,995
443
Dec-16F
9,157
1,971
400
273
11,801
10,286
1,771
933
1,625
14,614
443
1,678
1,038
7,060
4,028
1,900
1,038
3,381
3,789
1,957
1,038
3,437
3,346
2,012
1,038
3,492
2,903
704
4,733
0
11,793
15,543
38
15,581
704
4,493
0
7,874
16,910
38
16,948
704
4,050
0
7,488
18,504
38
18,542
704
3,608
0
7,100
19,277
38
19,315
Dec-13A
8.7%
(3.6%)
47.5%
(4.48)
14.18
6.66
23.1%
38.4%
63.73
38.61
101.5
7.1%
8.7%
Dec-14F
23.7%
38.6%
53.2%
(1.08)
15.43
8.53
21.2%
50.0%
58.80
39.76
108.3
8.8%
10.6%
Dec-15F
10.9%
11.8%
53.7%
2.47
16.88
25.89
20.0%
75.0%
60.60
41.88
110.1
13.2%
14.1%
Dec-16F
4.2%
1.8%
52.4%
5.30
17.59
30.75
20.0%
75.0%
62.61
39.49
103.9
16.3%
14.4%
Dec-13A
4.37
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
4.76
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
5.18
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
5.64
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Dec-13A
3,750
(195)
21
(11)
0
0
(265)
(339)
2,961
(3,033)
4
(1,192)
131
(4,089)
915
0
0
(438)
Dec-14F
5,198
(195)
(148)
0
0
0
(257)
(465)
4,134
(300)
0
0
0
(300)
(4,141)
0
0
(493)
Dec-15F
5,813
(195)
(151)
0
0
0
(111)
(631)
4,726
(300)
0
0
0
(300)
(443)
0
0
(930)
Dec-16F
5,916
(195)
(45)
0
0
0
(99)
(666)
4,911
(300)
0
0
0
(300)
(443)
0
0
(1,893)
91
567
(560)
(212)
(862)
390
(4,243)
(410)
(307)
4,091
390
(982)
3,443
3,983
4,537
390
(1,945)
2,666
4,168
4,710
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jasmine International
Jan-12
Jan-13
Samart I-Mobile
Jan-14
Thaicom
193
Telco - MobileTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$7,158m
US$11.53m
29.4%
THB235,005m
THB375.3m
2,368 m shares
Current
THB99.25
Target
THB117.0
Prev. Target
THB117.0
Up/Downside
17.9%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
-1.5
-1.7
-16.3
Absolute
-2.7
-3.2
-2.2
Major shareholders
% held
42.6
22.4
5.6
Competition to intensify
In 3Q14, DTACs subscriber migration
rate was 71% while the 3G device
adoption rate was 41%, lagging behind
AISs and Trues. We believe that
DTACs more aggressive strategy
should pave the way to catching up
with AIS and True in terms of
Price Close
120.4
118.0
109.3
108.0
98.2
98.0
87.1
88.0
20
76.0
Vol m
10
5
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Financial Summary
128.0
15
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
89,232
26,258
29.4%
11,278
4.16
(2.8%)
23.86
5.06
5.10%
9.93
8.84
73.6%
28.2%
Dec-13A
94,459
29,643
31.4%
10,569
4.49
8.0%
22.10
3.72
3.75%
8.81
32.35
79.4%
31.5%
Dec-14F
90,157
32,168
35.7%
11,815
4.81
7.1%
20.63
6.05
6.10%
7.71
14.09
38.5%
34.2%
0.99
Dec-15F
93,098
36,505
39.2%
12,925
5.46
13.5%
18.18
6.36
6.40%
6.94
14.28
57.5%
39.3%
0.95
Dec-16F
97,386
40,882
42.0%
14,734
6.22
14.0%
15.95
7.31
7.37%
6.24
13.82
66.2%
47.5%
0.97
Balance Sheet
Dec-13A
94,459
41,297
29,643
(13,673)
15,970
(2,154)
0
113
13,929
(69)
13,860
(3,290)
Dec-14F
90,157
44,758
32,168
(16,473)
15,695
(1,346)
0
212
14,561
236
14,797
(2,982)
Dec-15F
93,098
49,550
36,505
(19,201)
17,304
(1,275)
0
188
16,218
0
16,218
(3,293)
Dec-16F
97,386
54,361
40,882
(21,304)
19,579
(1,275)
0
184
18,488
0
18,488
(3,754)
10,569
0
0
11,815
0
0
12,925
0
0
14,734
0
0
10,569
10,636
10,636
11,815
11,390
11,390
12,925
12,925
12,925
14,734
14,734
14,734
Dec-13A
29,643
Dec-14F
32,168
Dec-15F
36,505
Dec-16F
40,882
(6,475)
9,258
(4,983)
(3,355)
0
(2,154)
(3,290)
17,723
(11,953)
134
169
0
(1,346)
(2,982)
37,099
(15,080)
84
30
0
(1,275)
(3,293)
26,954
(15,499)
0
0
0
(1,275)
(3,754)
32,499
(15,499)
0
0
(11,649)
1,192
0
0
(12,687)
(14,966)
(5,450)
0
0
(10,663)
(15,499)
5,000
0
0
(14,821)
(15,499)
0
0
0
(16,663)
6,339
(5,156)
918
7,265
8,228
1,488
(14,625)
7,508
16,683
23,478
(2,003)
(11,824)
(368)
16,456
12,730
(1,839)
(18,502)
(1,502)
17,000
18,275
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
5,472
10,351
1,683
3,598
21,105
79,963
326
0
3,661
83,949
8,296
Dec-14F
12,980
10,933
2,841
2,846
29,600
77,738
398
0
3,942
82,078
5,000
Dec-15F
12,612
9,411
2,947
3,296
28,266
76,585
398
0
3,942
80,925
5,000
Dec-16F
11,110
8,155
3,064
3,804
26,134
73,144
398
0
3,942
77,484
5,000
28,190
8,655
45,141
23,164
40,605
7,095
52,700
21,010
34,111
7,998
47,109
26,010
30,381
8,083
43,465
26,010
4,029
27,193
0
72,334
32,708
12
32,720
4,099
25,109
0
77,809
33,860
10
33,870
4,099
30,109
0
77,218
31,963
10
31,973
4,099
30,109
0
73,574
30,035
10
30,044
Dec-13A
5.9%
12.9%
31.4%
(10.98)
13.81
7.41
23.7%
83%
36.20
8.88
177.8
19.0%
24.7%
Dec-14F
(4.6%)
8.5%
35.7%
(5.50)
14.30
11.66
20.2%
124%
43.08
18.19
276.5
20.1%
25.3%
Dec-15F
3.3%
13.5%
39.2%
(7.77)
13.50
13.58
20.3%
116%
39.88
24.26
313.1
27.4%
28.2%
Dec-16F
4.6%
12.0%
42.0%
(8.40)
12.68
15.36
20.3%
118%
33.01
25.57
274.3
29.0%
31.6%
Dec-13A
27.94
N/A
N/A
N/A
210.8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-14F
28.43
N/A
N/A
N/A
204.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-15F
28.87
N/A
N/A
N/A
205.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec-16F
29.03
N/A
N/A
N/A
206.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Intouch Holdings
Jan-14
Total Access Communication
195
Telco - IntegratedTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
True Corporation
TRUE TB / TRUE.BK
Market Cap
Free Float
US$9,519m
US$69.02m
34.0%
THB312,521m
THB2,244m
24,608 m shares
Current
THB12.70
Target
THB10.13
Prev. Target
THB10.13
Up/Downside
-20.2%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Trues share price has rallied 57% in six months. Further re-rating
requires: 1) a lengthy delay in spectrum auctions, 2) consistent revenue
market share gains, and 3) delivery of a cost-efficiency programme.
We believe the chances of all three happening in FY15 are low.
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
T (66) 2 657 9226
E pisut.ng@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
19.9
13.9
44.7
Absolute
18.7
12.4
58.8
Major shareholders
% held
CP group
Thai Trust Fund
Thai NVDR
64.8
5.7
2.3
Turnaround is a known
positive factor
Price Close
Financial Summary
13.1
143
11.1
123
9.1
103
7.1
83
5.1
2
63
Vol b
1
1
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Dec-12A
89,381
16,738
18.7%
(7,429)
(0.46)
23%
NA
0%
16.66
NA
671%
(39%)
Dec-13A
96,214
16,383
17.0%
(9,062)
(0.90)
97%
NA
0%
15.74
13.08
1537%
(150%)
Dec-14F
101,336
18,594
18.3%
8,341
(0.13)
(86%)
NA
0%
18.06
NA
28%
(7%)
0%
(3.90)
Dec-15F
108,599
21,910
20.2%
9,905
0.05
NA
241.9
0%
15.51
NA
30%
2%
0%
2.78
Dec-16F
115,251
24,656
21.4%
4,500
0.17
216%
76.6
0%
13.63
82.95
24%
4%
0%
0.68
True CorporationThailand
December 12, 2014
Balance Sheet
(THBm)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit
Dec-13A
96,214
36,306
16,383
(19,728)
(3,345)
(8,463)
61
0
(11,747)
Dec-14F
101,336
39,176
18,594
(17,841)
752
(6,466)
2,114
0
(3,600)
Dec-15F
108,599
43,452
21,910
(18,193)
3,718
(3,576)
2,208
0
2,349
Dec-16F
115,251
46,940
24,656
(18,206)
6,450
(3,586)
2,299
0
5,164
(11,747)
(1,404)
4,011
(9,140)
78
0
(3,600)
389
11,451
8,239
102
0
2,349
(1,159)
8,614
9,804
101
0
5,164
(1,184)
418
4,398
102
0
(9,062)
(13,073)
(13,073)
8,341
(3,109)
(3,109)
9,905
1,292
1,292
4,500
4,082
4,082
Dec-13A
16,383
Dec-14F
18,594
Dec-15F
21,910
Dec-16F
24,656
13,707
(19,921)
(10,204)
(10,003)
3,200
(10,612)
0
0
22,678
(44,979)
43,736
4,073
0
2,829
(11,415)
187
0
0
1,144
9,367
0
0
9,184
(23,993)
0
0
0
(23,993)
(43,440)
65,001
0
0
1,144
6,188
0
0
19,038
(23,061)
0
0
0
(23,061)
0
0
0
0
1,144
(1,951)
0
0
13,846
(10,078)
0
0
0
(10,078)
0
0
0
0
(5,657)
(16,884)
8,623
14,093
25,507
0
21,562
6,753
(58,249)
(14,809)
0
0
(4,022)
(4,022)
(4,022)
0
0
3,768
3,768
3,768
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Dec-13A
17,174
38,685
6,070
9,149
71,078
72,162
16,559
40,284
5,769
134,774
13,637
Dec-14F
23,927
32,541
5,991
9,149
71,608
78,313
16,559
40,284
5,769
140,925
13,637
Dec-15F
19,904
26,397
6,194
9,149
61,645
83,182
16,559
40,284
5,769
145,794
13,637
Dec-16F
23,672
20,254
6,198
9,149
59,272
75,054
16,559
40,284
5,769
137,666
13,637
88,392
5,319
107,348
76,261
63,392
5,319
82,348
32,821
48,392
5,319
67,348
32,821
33,392
5,319
52,348
32,821
17,511
93,772
0
201,120
4,070
662
4,732
17,511
50,332
0
132,680
79,191
662
79,853
17,511
50,332
0
117,680
89,096
662
89,758
17,511
50,332
0
102,680
93,596
662
94,258
Dec-13A
7.6%
(2.1%)
17.0%
(5.01)
0.28
(0.39)
0.0%
NA
114.0
26.91
405.5
(2.16%)
(3.04%)
Dec-14F
5.3%
13.5%
18.3%
(0.92)
3.22
0.11
0.0%
NA
128.3
35.41
445.6
0.77%
0.81%
Dec-15F
7.2%
17.8%
20.2%
(1.08)
3.62
1.00
49.3%
NA
99.0
34.13
313.1
2.88%
2.94%
Dec-16F
6.1%
12.5%
21.4%
(0.93)
3.80
1.73
22.9%
NA
74.1
33.20
219.1
4.40%
4.76%
Dec-13A
22.88
1.73
1.69
0.76
4.0
8.3
23
29.1
Dec-14F
23.68
1.65
1.94
0.90
3.9
7.4
22
22.2
Dec-15F
24.65
1.57
2.21
1.13
3.9
7.4
22
19.3
Dec-16F
25.60
1.48
2.48
1.45
3.9
7.4
22
17.5
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
True Corporation
197
Media - IntegratedTHAILAND
December 12, 2014
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,349m
US$7.12m
36.4%
THB44,273m
THB231.8m
3,432 m shares
Current
THB12.90
Target
THB11.00
Prev. Target
THB11.00
Up/Downside
-14.7%
Conviction|
CIMB Analyst(s)
Praphan YUKHUNTHORNTHAM
T (66) 2 657 9239
E praphan.yu@cimb.com
1M
3M
12M
Relative
10.5
3.1
-5.7
Absolute
9.3
1.6
Major shareholders
8.4
% held
BTS
Thai NVDR
State Street Bank Europe Limited
62.2
2.9
2.3
Dominant in transit
Vol m
Price Close
105.0
11.7
95.0
9.7
85.0
7.7
250
200
150
100
50
75.0
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
Maintain Reduce
VGIs share price rose 32% YTD and
may limit upside in the near term. It
trades at 34x CY16 P/E, which is
higher than its peers.
Financial Summary
13.7
Dec-13
Revenue (THBm)
Operating EBITDA (THBm)
Net Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
Mar-13A
2,872
1,289
901
0.30
224%
42.93
0.26
2.02%
29.06
150.8
(68.9%)
21.25
85.3%
Mar-14A
3,196
1,511
1,147
0.36
19%
36.18
0.31
2.42%
26.80
157.8
(51.7%)
22.67
60.8%
Mar-15F
3,364
1,601
1,128
0.33
(8%)
39.25
0.31
2.38%
26.94
26.7
(57.4%)
22.02
56.9%
0%
0.96
Mar-16F
3,699
1,781
1,303
0.38
15%
33.98
0.35
2.75%
24.02
32.4
(65.8%)
19.59
61.0%
0%
0.94
Mar-17F
4,287
2,092
1,577
0.46
21%
28.07
0.43
3.33%
20.27
28.2
(71.3%)
16.89
64.6%
0%
0.96
Balance Sheet
Mar-14A
3,196
1,854
1,511
-90
1,420
-1
0
0
1,419
0
1,419
-273
Mar-15F
3,364
1,962
1,601
-211
1,390
0
20
0
1,410
0
1,410
-282
Mar-16F
3,699
2,179
1,781
-175
1,606
0
22
0
1,628
0
1,628
-326
Mar-17F
4,287
2,553
2,092
-147
1,945
0
26
0
1,971
0
1,971
-394
1,147
0
1,128
0
1,303
0
1,577
0
1,147
1,147
1,147
1,128
1,128
1,128
1,303
1,303
1,303
1,577
1,577
1,577
(THBm)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity
Cash Flow
Mar-15F
1,154
630
19
10
1,812
762
0
24
164
950
0
Mar-16F
1,487
682
17
10
2,196
637
0
24
164
825
0
Mar-17F
1,868
780
14
10
2,672
540
0
24
164
728
0
151
611
762
0
115
611
726
0
125
611
736
0
143
611
753
0
26
26
0
788
1,953
0
1,953
26
26
0
752
2,010
0
2,010
26
26
0
762
2,260
0
2,260
26
26
0
779
2,621
0
2,621
Mar-14A
11.3%
17%
47.3%
0.29
0.57
2,101
19.2%
93.3%
73.12
7.88
44.69
241%
75%
Mar-15F
5.3%
6%
47.6%
0.34
0.59
N/A
20.0%
93.4%
67.09
3.02
34.62
143%
70%
Mar-16F
10.0%
11%
48.2%
0.43
0.66
N/A
20.0%
93.4%
64.92
4.32
28.91
182%
75%
Mar-17F
15.9%
17%
48.8%
0.54
0.76
N/A
20.0%
93.4%
62.27
3.25
28.15
244%
80%
Mar-14A
N/A
80.0%
N/A
20.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Mar-15F
N/A
82.0%
N/A
20.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Mar-16F
N/A
84.0%
N/A
25.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Mar-17F
N/A
84.0%
N/A
25.0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Key Ratios
(THBm)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing
Total Cash Generated
Free Cashflow To Equity
Free Cashflow To Firm
Mar-14A
1,511
Mar-15F
1,601
Mar-16F
1,781
Mar-17F
2,092
154
-73
-41
-78
10
-1
-302
1,372
-558
0
-2
-549
-1,109
0
43
0
0
-282
1,245
-50
0
0
463
413
0
0
0
0
-326
1,415
-50
0
0
0
-50
0
0
0
0
-394
1,620
-50
0
0
1
-49
0
0
-1,014
-1,070
-1,054
-1,217
0
-971
-708
263
264
0
-1,070
588
1,658
1,658
0
-1,054
311
1,365
1,365
0
-1,217
354
1,571
1,571
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (THB)
BVPS (THB)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)
Key Drivers
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-11
Mar-14A
1,009
607
4
10
1,630
923
0
24
164
1,111
0
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
BEC World
Jan-15
MCOT
199
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
200
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
Appendices
201
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
11/12/2014
BBG code
Company name
Closing
Target
% up /
Market Cap
Month
Price
price
(down)
(%)
(US$m)
end
19.60
22.80
16%
Agro
GFPT TB
749
Add
44%
Banking
749
Dec 13
58,932
2015
ROAE (recurring) %
2016
2014
2015
2016
2015
2016
2-Yr forward
EPS Cagr
Net Gearing
FY2014 FY2015
2015
2.8x
2.3x
2.0x
23.8%
23.0%
21.0%
12.7x
11.0x
10.3x
21.7%
20.4%
17.3%
1.8%
2.3%
2.8x
2.3x
2.01x
23.8%
23.0%
21.0%
12.7x
11.0x
10.3x
21.7%
20.4%
17.3%
1.8%
2.3%
1.8x
1.6x
1.5x
16.9%
16.5%
16.4%
11.2x
10.4x
9.4x
6.5%
N.M.
N.M.
3.1%
3.4%
BBL TB
Bangkok Bank
199.5
203.0
2%
Hold
95%
11,600
Dec 13
1.2x
1.1x
1.0x
11.6%
11.5%
11.8%
10.7x
10.0x
9.1x
3.0%
N.M.
N.M.
3.7%
4.0%
KBANK TB
Kasikornbank
242.0
274.0
13%
Add
85%
17,641
Dec 13
2.3x
2.0x
1.7x
19.8%
18.9%
18.1%
12.5x
11.4x
10.3x
11.0%
N.M.
N.M.
1.6%
1.8%
KTB TB
23.60
28.00
19%
Add
40%
10,047
Dec 13
1.5x
1.3x
1.2x
15.9%
15.8%
16.1%
9.7x
8.8x
7.8x
5.1%
N.M.
N.M.
4.1%
4.5%
SCB TB
190.0
203.0
7%
Hold
50%
19,644
Dec 13
2.3x
2.1x
1.8x
20.4%
19.8%
19.7%
11.9x
11.3x
10.5x
6.8%
N.M.
N.M.
3.0%
3.2%
3.3x
3.1x
2.9x
12.3%
11.4%
11.9%
27.8x
27.4x
28.1x
1.2%
1.3%
CH. Karnchang
ITD TB
STEC TB
3,792
26.00
30.00
15%
Add
60%
1,341
Dec 13
2.4x
2.2x
2.1x
12.6%
11.2%
11.2%
19.8x
20.6x
18.9x
1.0%
1.2%
7.80
5.25
-33%
Reduce
64%
1,254
Dec 13
2.9x
2.8x
2.7x
4.8%
5.2%
6.5%
64.1x
55.9x
42.8x
0.6%
0.6%
25.75
23.00
-11%
Reduce
69%
1,196
Dec 13
4.7x
4.3x
3.8x
19.4%
17.9%
18.0%
25.3x
25.0x
22.5x
1.9%
2.0%
4.4x
4.2x
3.9x
24.5%
19.2%
22.7%
21.7x
22.5x
17.6x
-3.2%
1.8%
-6.5%
2.6%
2.8%
Food
2,459
ICHI TB
Ichitan Group
21.10
26.70
27%
Add
33%
836
Dec 13
4.3x
3.9x
3.5x
29.7%
17.3%
22.7%
20.6x
23.7x
16.4x
0.4%
16.5%
7.0%
2.1%
2.1%
M TB
MK Restaurant Group
58.75
74.00
26%
Add
25%
1,623
Dec 13
4.6x
4.4x
4.2x
19.2%
21.1%
22.8%
22.7x
21.3x
18.9x
-6.7%
-12.8%
-20.0%
3.0%
3.5%
6.4x
5.7x
5.1x
18.8%
20.1%
20.7%
37.4x
31.2x
27.3x
13.3%
9.3%
15.5%
1.3%
1.5%
63.4%
65.5%
1.4%
1.5%
Hospital
BCH TB
BGH TB
BH TB
13,505
8.90
9.30
18.20
23.80
Bumrungrad Hospital
142.5
125.0
CHG TB
Chularat Hospital
18.60
17.70
MEGA TB
16.10
25.00
4%
Hold
38%
676
Dec 13
5.3x
4.9x
4.6x
12.3%
14.9%
16.0%
44.3x
34.4x
29.7x
-0.4%
31%
Add
46%
8,588
Dec 13
6.2x
5.6x
5.0x
18.0%
19.2%
20.1%
36.4x
30.7x
26.2x
21.0%
44.3%
42.6%
1.1%
1.4%
-12%
Reduce
39%
3,163
Dec 13
9.5x
8.3x
7.2x
27.3%
26.5%
26.8%
43.8x
39.5x
34.2x
11.3%
-14.2%
-8.8%
1.4%
1.5%
-9%
Reduce
35%
655
Dec 13
7.5x
6.9x
6.5x
18.5%
19.9%
19.8%
42.3x
36.3x
33.9x
13.3%
-33.1%
-8.8%
1.4%
1.7%
55%
Add
25%
424
Dec 13
3.3x
2.8x
2.4x
17.6%
20.1%
20.7%
20.0x
15.2x
12.7x
21.2%
-14.1%
-13.1%
1.3%
1.6%
4.8x
4.3x
3.8x
13.9%
17.3%
18.7%
36.9x
26.1x
21.5x
16.0%
72.2%
60.8%
1.2%
1.3%
4.4x
3.9x
3.6x
10.8%
15.5%
16.9%
41.3x
26.6x
22.0x
15.8%
89.9%
75.3%
1.4%
1.2%
Hotel
5,919
CENTEL TB
35.00
38.50
10%
Add
45%
1,439
Dec 13
MINT TB
Minor International
36.75
42.00
14%
Add
51%
4,479
Dec 13
Media
5,750
5.2x
4.6x
4.0x
17.0%
19.1%
20.5%
32.5x
25.6x
20.9x
16.1%
54.5%
46.3%
1.0%
1.3%
10.0x
9.5x
8.8x
37.3%
40.5%
41.0%
23.1x
20.9x
19.3x
1.6%
-22.7%
-25.9%
4.7%
5.1%
BEC TB
BEC World
54.75
49.00
-11%
Hold
60%
3,335
Dec 13
12.5x
12.5x
12.5x
60.8%
68.9%
64.7%
20.5x
18.1x
19.3x
7.5%
-59.8%
-53.3%
5.1%
5.7%
MAJOR TB
25.75
18.56
-28%
Hold
49%
698
Dec 13
3.8x
3.7x
3.6x
17.9%
21.0%
24.5%
21.4x
18.0x
14.9x
15.7%
51.9%
42.8%
4.4%
5.3%
MCOT TB
MCOT
17.60
24.79
41%
Hold
34%
368
Dec 13
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
12.5%
12.3%
10.9%
12.2x
12.4x
13.9x
-20.1%
-31.4%
-35.6%
7.0%
6.9%
VGI TB
12.90
11.00
-15%
Reduce
36%
1,349
Mar 14
22.2x
20.1x
17.5x
57.8%
59.9%
63.9%
38.4x
35.2x
29.3x
3.4%
-51.7%
-57.4%
2.4%
2.7%
0.9x
0.9x
0.8x
4.7%
7.2%
12.4%
19.4x
12.2x
6.8x
53.8% 102.6%
94.1%
3.8%
4.8%
25.50
35.00
37%
Add
49%
Dec 13
0.9x
0.9x
0.8x
4.7%
7.2%
12.4%
19.4x
12.2x
6.8x
53.8%
94%
3.8%
4.8%
Mining
BANPU TB
Banpu
2,005
2,005
103%
202
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
11/12/2014
BBG code
Company name
Closing
Target
% up /
Market Cap
Month
Price
price
(down)
(%)
(US$m)
end
47,503
2015
ROAE (recurring) %
2016
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
2-Yr forward
EPS Cagr
Net Gearing
FY2014 FY2015
2015
1.2x
1.1x
1.0x
10.6%
13.4%
12.7%
29.0x
8.5x
8.2x
-0.2%
27.5%
13.4%
3.1%
4.8%
PTT TB
PTT
345.0
436.0
26%
Add
49%
30,016
Dec 13
1.3x
1.2x
1.1x
14.7%
15.5%
14.7%
9.3x
8.1x
7.7x
13.7%
31.8%
24.8%
4.3%
5.0%
PTTEP TB
122.0
160.0
31%
Hold
34%
14,753
Dec 13
1.2x
1.1x
1.0x
15.5%
14.4%
12.8%
8.2x
8.0x
8.3x
1.3%
8.9%
5.4%
4.4%
4.5%
TOP TB
Thai Oil
44.00
48.00
9%
Hold
40%
2,734
Dec 13
1.0x
0.9x
0.9x
1.4%
10.4%
10.5%
69.6x
9.4x
8.6x
-15.7%
41.8%
9.9%
0.6%
4.8%
2.0x
1.8x
1.6x
13.7%
15.9%
16.6%
17.9x
11.9x
9.9x
6.4%
76.0%
58.1%
3.1%
3.7%
IVL TB
Petrochemical
Indorama Ventures
21.70
33.00
52%
Add
35%
27,726
3,182
Dec 13
1.7x
1.5x
1.4x
5.5%
10.2%
12.6%
30.9x
15.8x
11.7x
N.M.
131.7%
112.1%
0.9%
1.7%
PTTGC TB
55.75
70.00
26%
Add
30%
7,657
Dec 13
1.0x
0.9x
0.9x
13.0%
14.0%
15.2%
7.9x
7.0x
6.1x
4.7%
26.5%
18.8%
5.7%
6.5%
SCC TB
Siam Cement
462.0
553.0
20%
Add
68%
16,887
Dec 13
3.3x
2.8x
2.5x
22.4%
23.6%
22.0%
15.0x
12.9x
12.0x
8.1%
69.7%
43.5%
2.6%
3.0%
11.9x
8.9x
6.8x
23.5%
29.1%
31.4%
49.9x
35.4x
25.1x
125.0%
49.4%
132.1%
0.2%
0.7%
Power
3,758
EA TB
Energy Absolute
26.00
25.00
-4%
Reduce
38%
GUNKUL TB
Gunkul Engineering
30.00
32.00
7%
Add
35%
Property
AMATA TB
Amata Corporation
ANAN TB
2,954
Dec 13
16.5x
11.5x
8.3x
31.0%
39.7%
41.9%
61.2x
34.1x
22.9x
212.2%
110.0%
191.3%
0.2%
0.8%
804
Dec 13
7.3x
6.2x
5.3x
16.1%
18.4%
20.9%
38.6x
36.6x
27.3x
37.7%
-11.3%
72.9%
0.3%
0.5%
2.3x
2.0x
1.8x
18.0%
19.4%
19.8%
13.6x
11.2x
9.7x
13.7%
71.3%
58.7%
3.4%
4.2%
19,135
16.50
10.51
-36%
Reduce
62%
536
Dec 13
2.0x
1.8x
1.6x
13.3%
15.8%
17.4%
15.3x
11.8x
9.7x
-0.7%
58.7%
55.7%
2.6%
3.4%
3.46
4.22
22%
Add
40%
351
Dec 13
1.7x
1.5x
1.2x
15.0%
16.8%
18.5%
12.3x
9.4x
7.2x
22.7%
70.6%
68.0%
1.5%
1.8%
AP TB
AP (Thailand) PCL
6.45
9.17
42%
Add
64%
618
Dec 13
1.1x
1.0x
0.9x
14.4%
15.0%
16.0%
8.4x
7.0x
6.0x
14.2%
80.9%
69.6%
4.8%
5.7%
CPN TB
Central Pattana
46.50
61.00
31%
Add
45%
6,357
Dec 13
5.1x
4.5x
4.0x
18.2%
19.1%
19.3%
29.4x
24.9x
22.0x
15.4%
42.1%
39.3%
1.4%
1.7%
HEMRAJ TB
Hemaraj
4.28
4.63
8%
Hold
78%
1,265
Dec 13
2.7x
2.4x
2.1x
21.1%
19.8%
20.3%
13.6x
12.8x
11.1x
5.3%
62.1%
55.6%
2.6%
3.2%
LH TB
9.50
11.32
19%
Hold
54%
3,179
Dec 13
2.6x
2.5x
2.4x
19.7%
20.4%
21.3%
15.3x
15.1x
13.9x
-1.3%
64.5%
54.8%
5.4%
5.9%
LPN TB
24.90
29.78
20%
Add
46%
1,119
Dec 13
3.5x
2.9x
2.5x
20.8%
26.1%
26.0%
17.6x
12.2x
10.5x
13.6%
38.3%
26.0%
2.8%
4.2%
PS TB
30.00
45.95
53%
Add
23%
2,035
Dec 13
2.3x
1.9x
1.6x
22.8%
23.2%
22.4%
10.8x
9.0x
7.8x
13.2%
64.7%
53.2%
2.6%
2.6%
QH TB
Quality Houses
3.92
5.04
29%
Add
41%
1,097
Dec 13
1.9x
1.7x
1.5x
19.6%
20.6%
21.3%
10.1x
8.6x
7.4x
12.8%
109.3%
75.6%
5.0%
5.8%
SC TB
SC Asset Corporation
3.60
4.59
28%
Add
35%
407
Dec 13
1.1x
0.9x
0.8x
10.7%
11.8%
12.0%
11.0x
8.6x
7.2x
19.8%
100.4%
85.0%
3.6%
4.6%
SIRI TB
Sansiri Public Co
1.86
2.12
14%
Hold
58%
772
Dec 13
1.2x
1.0x
1.0x
12.7%
15.5%
16.8%
9.0x
7.0x
6.2x
11.7%
120.2%
93.4%
4.8%
7.1%
SPALI TB
Supalai PCL
26.75
31.92
19%
Add
56%
1,399
Dec 13
2.6x
2.2x
1.8x
28.0%
28.4%
26.8%
10.3x
8.4x
7.4x
37.9%
44.4%
28.8%
3.9%
4.8%
5.8x
5.0x
4.3x
22.4%
25.6%
27.9%
27.2x
21.2x
17.1x
12.7%
65.4%
49.3%
2.2%
2.7%
Retail
20,417
BIGC TB
Big C Supercentre
253.0
212.0
-16%
Reduce
41%
6,358
Dec 13
5.0x
4.4x
3.9x
18.0%
18.2%
18.0%
29.3x
25.6x
22.8x
8.1%
38.7%
24.2%
1.0%
1.2%
CPALL TB
CP All
42.25
54.50
29%
Add
59%
11,561
Dec 13
11.1x
9.1x
7.4x
33.8%
41.0%
40.2%
35.7x
24.4x
20.3x
21.6%
434.3%
347.5%
1.4%
2.1%
JUBILE TB
Jubilee Enterprise
36.00
42.00
17%
Add
48%
191
Dec 13
8.7x
7.4x
6.1x
35.3%
40.6%
46.6%
26.4x
19.7x
14.4x
25.2%
-12.8%
-14.5%
2.3%
3.0%
MC TB
Mc Group
14.00
17.10
22%
Hold
30%
341
Dec 13
3.0x
2.9x
2.7x
19.8%
21.0%
23.8%
15.3x
13.9x
11.7x
-13.2%
-47.6%
-40.8%
5.2%
5.7%
OFM TB
Officemate
49.00
54.00
10%
Hold
24%
478
Dec 13
3.2x
3.0x
2.7x
10.5%
12.1%
14.3%
31.5x
25.5x
19.8x
18.4%
-20.2%
-25.4%
1.0%
1.2%
ROBINS TB
44.00
66.00
50%
Add
38%
1,489
Dec 13
4.0x
3.6x
3.2x
16.7%
20.5%
24.4%
24.8x
18.3x
13.8x
15.9%
0.2%
5.1%
2.0%
2.7%
203
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December 12, 2014
11/12/2014
BBG code
Company name
Closing
Target
% up /
Market Cap
Month
Price
price
(down)
(%)
(US$m)
end
Technology
3,883
ROAE (recurring) %
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
3.0x
2.6x
2.3x
24.6%
21.0%
22.2%
13.3x
15.5x
11.8x
2-Yr forward
EPS Cagr
Net Gearing
FY2014 FY2015
2015
2.5%
-3.4%
-18.1%
3.0%
2.8%
DELTA TB
77.00
80.00
4%
Hold
37%
2,926
Dec 13
3.5x
3.2x
2.9x
22.3%
22.8%
22.6%
16.3x
14.5x
13.4x
9.7%
-56.9%
-58.3%
3.5%
3.8%
KCE TB
KCE Electronics
38.75
45.00
16%
Add
57%
666
Dec 13
3.7x
2.9x
2.3x
36.0%
31.5%
30.8%
11.3x
10.3x
8.4x
22.7%
77.2%
52.0%
2.2%
2.6%
SVI TB
4.22
3.12
-26%
Reduce
44%
291
Dec 13
1.9x
1.8x
1.7x
15.6%
8.8%
13.2%
12.4x
21.5x
13.5x
-24.8%
-30.4%
-47.8%
3.4%
2.1%
7.8x
7.4x
7.2x
40.3%
46.5%
49.3%
4.0x
47.5x
22.7x
18.9%
23.6%
21.4%
3.8%
4.6%
Telecommunications
49,641
ADVANC TB
245.0
243.0
-1%
Hold
36%
22,187
Dec 13
16.1x
14.7x
14.5x
73.6%
81.4%
86.0%
21.7x
18.9x
17.0x
3.8%
68.0%
82.8%
4.7%
5.4%
DTAC TB
99.25
117.0
18%
Add
29%
7,158
Dec 13
6.9x
7.4x
7.8x
34.2%
39.3%
47.5%
20.6x
18.2x
15.9x
10.2%
38.5%
57.5%
6.1%
6.4%
SIM TB
Samart I-Mobile
3.44
4.60
34%
Add
56%
461
Dec 13
4.0x
3.5x
3.0x
30.0%
28.0%
27.5%
14.6x
13.3x
11.7x
16.0%
49.0%
36.2%
2.7%
3.3%
INTUCH TB
Intouch Holdings
76.75
86.00
12%
Add
55%
7,496
Dec 13
17.2x
17.1x
16.9x
109.3%
128.8%
134.0%
15.8x
13.3x
12.7x
16.7%
-14.9%
-15.6%
6.3%
7.5%
JAS TB
Jasmine International
7.60
9.50
25%
Add
65%
1,625
Dec 13
4.1x
3.5x
3.0x
30.7%
32.5%
31.4%
14.4x
11.7x
10.3x
24.4%
-10.4%
-26.3%
4.2%
5.1%
THCOM TB
Thaicom
35.75
52.00
45%
Add
59%
1,193
Dec 13
2.3x
2.1x
2.0x
11.5%
14.3%
14.1%
21.1x
15.5x
14.7x
42.3%
7.0%
-14.6%
2.4%
4.8%
TRUE TB
True Corporation
12.70
10.13
-20%
Reduce
34%
9,519
Dec 13
3.9x
3.5x
3.3x
-7.2%
1.5%
4.5%
-79.9x
241.9x
76.6x
N.A.
28.2%
29.6%
0.0%
0.0%
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
-2.6%
1.5%
4.2%
-3.2x
29.2x
19.6x
1.6%
1.7%
Transportation
19,414
AOT TB
Airports of Thailand
285.0
258.0
-9%
Add
30%
12,402
Sep 13
4.1x
3.7x
3.3x
13.4%
15.0%
15.9%
31.7x
25.9x
22.0x
16.6%
5.0%
21.4%
1.2%
1.5%
AAV TB
4.66
2.20
-53%
Reduce
40%
688
Dec 13
1.2x
1.2x
1.1x
-0.8%
3.2%
3.9%
-150.9x
36.6x
29.4x
-32.6%
41.3%
54.3%
0.0%
0.0%
BMCL TB
Bangkok Metro
1.86
1.14
-39%
Reduce
28%
1,161
Dec 13
4.6x
5.2x
5.5x
-5.0%
-12.6%
-5.0%
-90.5x
-39.1x
-107.4x
0.0%
0.0%
BTS TB
BTS Group
10.10
11.00
9%
Add
58%
3,637
Mar 14
2.1x
2.2x
2.2x
4.0%
4.6%
5.1%
52.8x
47.2x
43.8x
19.2%
-38.2%
6.1%
6.5%
PSL TB
Precious Shipping
15.40
18.45
20%
Reduce
40%
488
Dec 13
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
140.1x
150.4x
112.9x
N.A.
74.4% 111.6%
2.3%
2.3%
THAI TB
15.60
10.00
-36%
Reduce
32%
1,037
Dec 13
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
-28.1%
-1.8%
4.6%
-2.4x
-45.8x
17.2x
0.0%
0.0%
2.4x
2.2x
2.0x
16.0%
16.8%
17.5%
16.0x
13.5x
11.9x
19.8%
39.4%
23.5%
3.1%
4.3%
29.0%
20.3%
9.5%
1.1%
1.4%
Utilities
7,053
DEMCO TB
Demco PCL
14.40
21.50
GLOW TB
Glow Energy
90.75
RATCH TB
Ratchaburi Electricity
61.25
-39.9%
49%
Add
70%
304
Dec 13
2.8x
2.4x
2.2x
14.5%
17.3%
17.0%
20.5x
15.1x
13.5x
97.00
7%
Reduce
30%
4,044
Dec 13
2.9x
2.7x
2.7x
21.6%
20.8%
20.9%
14.3x
13.4x
12.7x
9.8%
87.4%
62.3%
4.6%
7.4%
69.00
13%
Add
38%
2,705
Dec 13
1.5x
1.4x
1.3x
12.0%
12.2%
14.5%
13.1x
12.1x
9.4x
20.6%
10.5%
-1.1%
3.7%
3.9%
1,560
SOURCE: CIMB estimates
204
Navigating Thailand2015
December 12, 2014
#03
DISCLAIMER
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,
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specified, for market data, be market data and prices available from the main stock exchange or market where the relevant security is listed, or,
where appropriate, any other market. Information on the accounts and business of company(ies) will generally be based on published
statements of the company(ies), information disseminated by regulatory information services, other publicly available information and information
resulting from our research.
Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions
of opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the
document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Past
performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments may go down as well as up and those investing may,
depending on the investments in question, lose more than the initial investment. No report shall constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf
of CIMB or its affiliates to any person to buy or sell any investments.
CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in
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may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and its related companies do and seek to do business with the
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(i) As of December 11, 2014, CIMB has a proprietary position in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call
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(a) (ii) As of December 12, 2014, the analyst(s) who prepared this report, has / have an interest in the securities (which may include but not limited
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(a) Ichitan Group, MK Restaurant Group, Samart I-Mobile
The information contained in this research report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report.
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periodicity of reports at any time. CIMB is under no obligation to update this report in the event of a material change to the information
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New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the
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course of, and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978.
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The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change, and this report shall not be
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described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden.
Taiwan: This research report is not an offer or marketing of foreign securities in Taiwan. The securities as referred to in this research report have
not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China pursuant to relevant securities laws and
regulations and may not be offered or sold within the Republic of China through a public offering or in circumstances which constitutes an offer or
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Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this
research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or
the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no
obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the
basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any
means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written
consent of CIMBS.
CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. may act or acts as Market Maker and issuer including offering of Derivative Warrants Underlying securities
of the following securities. Investors should carefully read and study the details of the derivative warrants in the prospectus before making
investment decisions.
AAV, ADVANC, AMATA, ANAN, AOT, AP, ASP, BANPU, BAY, BBL, BCH, BCP, BEC, BECL, BGH, BH, BIGC, BJC, BJCHI, BLA, BLAND, BMCL,
BTS, CENTEL, CK, CPALL, CPF, CPN, DCC, DELTA, DEMCO, DTAC, EARTH, EGCO, ERW, ESSO, GFPT, GLOBAL, GLOW, GUNKUL,
HEMRAJ, HMPRO, INTUCH, IRPC, ITD, IVL, JAS, KBANK, KCE, KKP, KTB, KTC, LH, LOXLEY, LPN, M, MAJOR, MC, MCOT, MEGA, MINT,
NOK, NYT, PS, PSL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, QH, RATCH, ROBINS, RS, SAMART, SCB, SCC, SCCC, SIRI, SPALI, SPCG, SRICHA, STA, STEC,
STPI, SVI, TASCO, TCAP, TFD, THAI, THCOM, THRE, THREL, TICON, TISCO, TMB, TOP, TPIPL, TTA, TTCL, TTW, TUF, UMI, UV, VGI, TRUE,
WHA.
Corporate Governance Report:
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the
policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the
Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public
investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may
be changed after that date. CIMBS does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range:
Description:
90 - 100
Excellent
80 - 89
Very Good
70 - 79
Good
Below 70 or
N/A
No Survey Result
United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing
authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by,
deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report
is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to any person other than
the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to
lead to the sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory
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Add
54.9%
5.0%
Hold
29.5%
2.3%
Reduce
15.6%
1.0%
CustomSpitzerKR_KRSpitzer
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (Thai IOD) in 2014.
AAV Very Good, ADVANC Very Good, AEONTS not available, AMATA - Good, ANAN Very Good, AOT Very Good, AP - Good, ASK Very Good,
ASP Very Good, BANPU Very Good , BAY Very Good , BBL Very Good, BCH not available, BCP - Excellent, BEAUTY Good, BEC - Good, BECL
Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Good, BIGC - Very Good, BJC Good, BLA Very Good, BMCL - Very Good, BTS - Excellent, CCET Good,
CENTEL Very Good, CHG not available, CK Very Good, CPALL not available, CPF Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DEMCO Good,
DTAC Very Good, EA - Good, ECL not available, EGCO - Excellent, GFPT - Very Good, GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Good, GRAMMY - Excellent, HANA Excellent, HEMRAJ Very Good, HMPRO - Very Good, ICHI - not available, INTUCH - Excellent, ITD Good, IVL - Excellent, JAS not available, JUBILE
not available, KAMART not available, KBANK - Excellent, KCE - Very Good, KGI Good, KKP Excellent, KTB - Excellent, KTC Good, LH - Very Good,
LPN Very Good, M - not available, MAJOR - Good, MAKRO Good, MBKET Good, MC Very Good, MCOT Very Good, MEGA Good, MINT Excellent, OFM Very Good, OISHI Good, PS Very Good, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTEP - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, QH Very Good,
RATCH Very Good, ROBINS Very Good, RS Very Good, SAMART - Excellent, SAPPE - not available, SAT Excellent, SAWAD not available, SC
Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCBLIF Good, SCC Very Good, SCCC - Good, SIM - Excellent, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Excellent, STA Very Good, STEC - Good,
SVI Very Good, TASCO Good, TCAP Very Good, THAI Very Good, THANI Very Good, THCOM Very Good, THRE not available, THREL Good,
TICON Good, TISCO - Excellent, TK Very Good, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE Very Good, TTW Very Good, TUF - Good, VGI Very Good,
WORK not available.
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Definition:
An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation.
A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation.
An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation.
Country Ratings
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
Definition:
An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.
A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark.
An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.
*Prior to December 2013 CIMB recommendation framework for stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand,
Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange were
based on a stocks total return relative to the relevant benchmarks total return. Outperform: expected to exceed by 5% or more over the next 12 months.
Neutral: expected to be within +/-5% over the next 12 months. Underperform: expected to be below by 5% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy:
expected to exceed by 3% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: expected to be below by 3% or more over the next 3 months. For stocks listed on
Korea Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Outperform: Expected positive total returns of 10% or
more over the next 12 months. Neutral: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. Underperform: Expected negative total
returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. Trading Buy: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. Trading Sell: Expected
negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.
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Analysts Coverage
Kasem PRUNRATANAMALA (Head of Equity Research)
+66 (2) 657-9221 kasem.prunratanamala@cimb.com
Property (Contractor)
Ch. Karnchang
Italian-Thai Development
Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction
Hotel
Central Plaza Hotel
Minor International
Healthcare
Bangkok Chain Hospital
Bangkok Dusit Medical Service
Bumrungrad Hospital
Consumer (Retail)
Big C Supercentre
CP All
Robinson Department Store
Suwat SINSADOK, CFA FRM
+66 (2) 657-9228 suwat.si@cimb.com
Building Materials (Cement)
Siam Cement
Chemicals
Indorama Ventures
PTT Global Chemical
Mining
Banpu
Oil & Gas
PTT Plc
PTT Exploration and Production
Thai Oil
Utilities
Energy Absolute
Gunkul Engineering
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating
Glow Energy
THAILAND
Weerapat WONK-URAI
+66 (2) 657-9224 weerapat.wo@cimb.com
Banking & Finance
Bangkok Bank
Kasikornbank
Krung Thai Bank
Siam Commercial Bank
Wattaipun EKATAKSIN
+66 (2) 657-9229 wattaipun.ekataksin@cimb.com
Property
Amata Corporation
Hemaraj Land and Development
Property (Residential)
Ananda Development
Asian Property
Cnetral Pattana
L.P.N. Development
Land and Houses
Preuksa Real Estate
Quality Houses
Sansiri
SC Asset Corporation
Supalai
Raymond YAP
+60 (3) 2084-9769 raymond.yap@cimb.com
Transportation (Shipping)
Precious Shipping
Transportation (Aviation)
Asia Aviation
Retail Research
Kitichan SIRISUKACHA
+66 (2) 657-9232 kitichan.si@cimb.com
Retail
Beauty Community
Jubilee Enterprise
MC Group
Officemate
Healthcare
Chularat Hospital
Agribusiness
GFPT
Food
MK Restaurant Group
Ichitan Group
Telecommunications
Samart I-Mobile
Praphan YUKHUNTHORNTHAM
+66 (2) 657-9239 praphan.yu@cimb.com
Transportation
BTS Group
Bangkok Metro
Media & Entertainment
VGI Global Media
Thanakorn CHONGSUKSIRICHOK
+66 (2) 657-9227 Thanakorn.ch@cimb.com
Technology Components
Delta Electronics (Thai)
KCE Electronics
SVI Public Company Limited
Pisut NGAMVIJITVONG
+66 (2) 657-9226 pisut.ng@cimb.com
Media & Entertainment
BEC World
Major Cineplex Group
MCOT
Telecommunications
Advanced Info Service
Jasmine International
Shin Corporation
Thaicom
Total Access Communication
True Corporation
Economics Research
Arup RAHA (Regional Head of Economics)
+(65) 6210-8412 arup.raha@cimb.com
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Asia
China
Unit 802 AZIA Center
1233 Lujiazui Ring Road
Pudong New District
Shanghai 200120
T: +86 (21) 6194-0212 / +86 (21) 6194-0218
Hong Kong
Units 7706-08, Level 77
International Commerce Centre
1 Austin Road West Kowloon
T: +852 2868-0380
F: +852 2537-1928
India
CIMB Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Equinox Business Park, Tower III
LBS Marq, Off BKC, Kurla (W)
Mumbai 400070
T: +91 (22) 4263-0203
Indonesia
The Indonesia Stock Exchange Building
Tower II, 20th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman, Kav. 52-53
Jakarta 12190
T: +62 (21) 515-1330
F: +62 (21) 515-1335
Malaysia
Level 17, Menara CIMB
Jalan Stesen Sentral 2
Kuala Lumpur Sentral
50470 Kuala Lumpur.
T: +60 (3) 2261 8888
F: +60 (3) 2261 8899
Singapore
50 Raffles Place
#19-00
Singapore Land Tower (S048623)
T: +65 6225-1228
F: +65 6224-6906
South Korea
CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch
15F, S-Tower, 116 Shinmun-ro 1-ga
Jongro-gu, Seoul 110-700
T: +82 (2) 6730-6000
F: +82 (2) 6730-6183
Sri Lanka
Level 33, West Tower
World Trade Center
Echelon Square
Colombo 01
Taiwan
CIMB Securities Limited, Taiwan Branch
76F, No. 7, Xin-Yi Road Sec. 5
Taipei City
T: +886 (2) 8729-8388
F: +886 (2) 8729-8391
Thailand
132 Sindhorn Tower 3, 12th Floor
Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan
Bangkok 10330
T: +66 (2) 841-9000
F: +66 (2) 657-9240
Vietnam
CIMB Securities International Ltd.
90 Pasteur Street
District 1, HCMC
Vietnam
T: +84 839146925
F: +84 839 146924
Philippines
SB Equities, Inc.
(a strategic partner with CIMB Securities)
18F Security Bank Centre
6776 Ayala Ave.
Makati 0719
T: +63 (2) 891-1243 / +63 (2) 891-1258
F: +63 (2) 813-3349
Sri Lanka
John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd
(a strategic partner with CIMB Securities)
130 Glennie Street
Colombo 00200
T: +94 (0) 11 230 6271
F: +94 (0) 11 234 2068
Europe
Americas
United Kingdom
(2719607)
27 Knightsbridge
London, SW1X 7YB
T: +44 (20) 7201-2199
F: +44 (20) 7201-2191
USA
(52-1971703)
540 Madison Avenue
11th Floor, New York, N.Y. 10022
T: +1 (212) 616 8600
F: +1 (212) 616 8639
Australia
Melbourne
Level 32, 101 Collins St
Melbourne, VIC 3000
+61 3 9631 1000
Sydney
Level 29, Aurora Place
88 Phillip Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
+61 2 9694 5000
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