How to cope with engineering problems

and
What to do with data in hydrology and hydraulics?

Shie-Yui LIONG
Tropical Marine Science Institute
National University of Singapore

Incheon, 20 August 2007

Content
Introduction
* Water resources problem
* Tsunami forecasting problem
Coping with the above engineering
problem
Mining hydrologic and hydraulic data
Conclusions

Introduction

Singapore

Strait of Johor

Tsunami
Geology of SEA (Sumatra Subduction Zone)

Indian ocean tsunami

A. Water Resources Problem in Singapore

Size: 700 km2

Population: 4.5 Millions
30% of (river) water imported from Malaysia

Coping water resources problem through:

Water catchment
Desalination plant
Recycled water
Damming bays

Singapore

Strait of Johor

Marina Bay

Marina Bay

Barrage

Marina Bay

Barrage

Marina catchment with sub catchments

2/14

Current (Marina)

Astronomical Tide

Hourly tidal data for one month: 1st 31st January 2006

4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

Time
Flooding occurred due to storm surge!

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Predicted
Observed

Tide (m )

Tide Information - 22 Dec 99

Marina Catchment

Marina
Barrage

Pump
Station

Marina
Barrage

Pump
Station

Marina
Barrage

Pump
Station

Marina
Barrage

Pump
Station

Marina
Barrage

Pump
Station

With Barage my ha

Barrage Operation must consider impact of

storm surge

Significant wave height and mean wave direction

Hs (cm )
45
34

y(km
)

40
32

35

30

30
25

28

20
26
15
24
10
22

44

46

48

50

52
x(km )

54

56

58

60

Wind speed: 7.2 m/s; and wind direction: 300

90

62

40%

120

60
30%

20%

150

30

10%

180

210

330

240

300
270

0
1.0
Calm (42%)

3.0

5.0

7.0
(m /s )

9.0

11.0

13.0

PROJECT COMPONENTS

Rainfall & Wind Forecasting

Catchment Runoff & Sea Level Forecasting

Optimal Reservoir Operation

INTEGRATION of all Components requires GIS and other DSS tools

Data Collection Processing Model

Simulation Mimicking simulated data
through data driven technique (absolutely
necessary for operational system)

Geographic Information System

RAINFALL & WIND

RUNOFF

SEA LEVEL

INTEGRATION
Integration
Prediction
&
Simulation

Hs (cm )
40
34
35
32
30
30

y(km)

25
28

20

26

15

24

10

22

0
44

46

48

50

52
x(km )

54

56

58

60

62

Data & GIS

Organization of
Thematic layers to GIS
Climate data to database
Interface database with GIS
Custom tool interface for rainfall data
visualization

1/7

MARINA DRAINAGE AND CATCHMENTS

2/7

LANDUSE

3/7

DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL

4/7

Rainfall data

5/7

6/7

7/7

Rainfall and Wind

1/6

2/6

3/6

4/6

5/6

6/6

Runoff Data

1/8

Marina catchment with sub catchments

2/8

Flow Monitoring Sites

3/8

Survey of Cross-section Profile

4/8

Survey of Cross-section Profile

5/8

Flow Gauging Instrument

6/8

7/8

Mounting Track of Flow Gauging Instrument

8/8

14/14

Wind Generated Wave Data and

Simulation

1/7

Wind Rose Study (resolution:30)

90

40%
60

120
30%

20%

150

30

10%

180

210

330

240

300
270

0
1.0
Calm (42%)

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

(m/s)

Wind rose based on hourly wind data:

Dominant wind direction (270-300); Maximum wind speed: 7.2 m/s

Mean wind speed: 2.6 m/s

2/7

Significant wave height and mean wave direction

Hs (cm)
45
34
40
32

35
30

30

28

40%
60

120
30%

20%

150

y(

90

25
20

30

10%

26
180

15
24

210

330

10
240

300
270

22

44

46

48

50

52
x(km)

54

56

58

60

Wind speed 7.2 m/s; wind direction 300

0
1.0
Calm (42%)

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

(m/s)

62

3/7

13.0

Study Domain and Sample Points for

Data-Driven Model Construction
Bathymetry of Singapore Strait;
Domain of interest is marked by
red box:

Domain of interest with 15

sample points for datadriven model construction
and validation:
Depth (m)
200
34

180

32

160

Nest

4+
140

3+

30

y(km)

2+
1+

28

5+

100

7+

12+

11+

8+

26

120

6+

10+
24

80

13+

14+

9+

60
40

15+

22

20
0
44

46

48

50

52
x(km)

54

56

58

60

62

4/7

Depth (m)
200
34

180

32

160

Nest

4+
140

3+

30

y(km)

2+
1+

28

5+
6+

100

7+

12+

11+

8+

26

120

10+
24

80

13+

14+

9+

60
40

15+

22

20
0
44

46

48

50

52
x(km)

54

56

58

60

62

5/7

Validation result at Point 2

Comparison of data-driven model result (ANN) with
SWAN model result

Scatter diagram of data-driven model result

(ANN) and SWAN model result
2.5

2.5
SWAN
ANN

1.5

ANN (m)

Hs (m)

1
0.5

0
20

R2=0.9765

40
60
Validation events

80

100

1
1.5
SWAN (m)

2.5

350
300

ANN

250

250
200
150

200
150

100

100

50

50

0
20

R2=0.70

0.5

SWAN

ANN (deg)

Wave direction (deg)

300

0.5

350

1.5

40
60
Validation events

80

100

100

200
SWAN (deg)

300

7/7

Validation result at Point 2

Comparison of data-driven model result (ANN) with
SWAN model result

Scatter diagram of data-driven model result

(ANN) and SWAN model result
6

ANN

4
ANN (sec)

Mean wave period (sec)

SWAN

0
20

40
60
Validation events

80

100

2
4
SWAN (sec)

R2=0.9825

20

20
SWAN
ANN

15
ANN (m)

Wave length (m)

15

10

0
20

R2=0.9828

10

40
60
Validation events

80

100

10
SWAN (m)

15

20

8/8

B. Tsunami Forecasting Problem

Past Tsunami Events

Essential Steps
A.

Determine potential source of earthquake that will cause tsunami

B.

Define critical fault lines potentially affecting area of interest

C.

Obtain key parameters along this fault line for tsunami generation

D.

Differentiate tsunamigenic earthquakes from non-tsunamigenic

earthquakes

E.

Simulate tsunami numerical model(s)

F.

Apply data driven techniques to mimic tsunami numerical models

(essential for operational system)

Fault-lines

Geology of South-East Asia

Seismic Stations

Types of Earthquake faults

= -90o

= +90o

DIP-SLIP
FAULT
Normal Fault

= 0o

STRIKE-SLIP FAULT

Reverse Fault

-180<<0o

OBLIQUE-SLIP FAULT

Vertical Displacement of Water

Three basic stages of

tsunami processes

BREAKING
INUNDATION

PROPAGATION

GENERATION

Animation Indian ocean tsunami

Soft computing technique

in
NORTH SUMATRA TSUNAMI
26 DEC 2004

Simulations
sequence

Fault 1

Faults 1+2

Faults 1+2+3

Faults 1+2+3+4

Faults 1+2+3+4+5

Study
areas
Longitude
between
-4.5 and
23,7
degree

Wave arrival time (hours) Fault1

Maximum wave height (m) Fault 1

Wave arrival time (hours) Faults 1+2

Maximum wave height (m) Faults 1+2

Summary
Two engineering problems were discussed:
Water Resources and Tsunami operational
systems
Data collection, processing, analysis, numerical
model calibration & simulations for scenarios of
interest are some of main essential steps in
solving engineering problems.
For many operational systems, having an
effective and efficient computational tool is
essential.