You are on page 1of 8

MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested parties


FR: Nick Berning, MoveOn.org Political Action & Neil Sroka, Democracy for America
RE: New poll shows Iowa, New Hampshire caucus and primary voters eager for Elizabeth
Warren
February 11, 2015

To know Elizabeth Warren is to want her to run for president, according to a YouGov survey of
likely Democratic Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire primary voters recently conducted on
behalf of the Run Warren Run campaign.
The results show that, after likely caucus goers and primary voters learn about Elizabeth
Warrens biography and issue positions, not only do a stunning 79% say they want her to
run, but, in both states, Warren ends up leading all other potential Democratic candidates
in a head-to-head ballot question.
Conducted over 7 days January 30 to February 5, 2015 and paid for by MoveOn.org
Political Action, the survey asked 400 respondents in each of the two states (a combined 800
respondents) a series of questions about the economic agenda and messages espoused by the
U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, followed by questions about their view of contested primaries
or caucuses and their candidate preferences. The survey was limited to those who described
themselves as likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus. Links to complete
poll results and methodology follow below.
Some key findings:

Virtually all respondents agree with the case for a contested race, with 98%
agreeing that a competitive primary is good for the party, candidates and voters.
Further, the survey reveals that the more Democrats learn about Warren, the more
supportive they become.
After hearing positive information about Elizabeth Warren, 79% said they would like
her to run for president in 2016, including 82% of likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers
and 76% of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters.
After hearing this information, without any negatives on other candidates, Elizabeth
Warren leads all other candidates for the nomination in both states: 31% to 24% over

Clinton in Iowa (with other potential candidates further behind) and 30% to 27% in
New Hampshire.
Warrens biography and the causes she champions are powerfully resonant:
97% of respondents agree with Warrens position on the government giving
students the same low interest rates on loans that it gives to big banks.
98% agree with Warrens statement that "No one should be above the law. If you
steal a hundred bucks on Main Street, youre probably going to jail. If you steal a
billion bucks on Wall Street, you darn well better go to jail too."
98% agree that the game is rigged in favor of powerful interests and have a
problem with that.
95% find the fact that Time Magazine called Warren the "New Sheriff of Wall
Street" and her leadership in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
to be a convincing reason to support Warren.
More than 90% support Warrens positions on expanding Social Security and
breaking up the largest banks.

Appeal of Warrens Positions on the Issues


Respondents were asked whether they agree or disagree with a series of statements that
Elizabeth Warren has made on key economic issues, including Social Security, student loans,
big banks, trade deals, the Keystone XL pipeline and Wall Street corruption. We found that her
agenda is extremely popular among likely Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire primary
voters, with all the statements supported by more than three in four respondents, and some
statements having virtually unanimous support.
The best performing question related to Sen. Warren's position on student loan debt. We found
Warren's call to lower student loan interest rates to be remarkably popular, with virtually
unanimous agreement, and strong agreement by four-fifths of respondents.
Warren's backing for expanding Social Security and for breaking up the largest banks like
Citigroup is nearly as strong, with more than 90% of voters agreeing with her.
And her call for Wall Street criminals to be held accountable is strikingly popular.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren's issue positions
Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Total agree listed first (strong agree in
parentheses)

IA/NH
combo

Iowa

New Hamp.

Elizabeth Warren wants to extend the same low interest


rates that the federal government gives big Wall Street
banks to college students who receive government
loans for their education. She says, "We shouldnt be

97% (81%)

97% (81%)

96% (82%)

profiting from our students who are drowning in debt,


while giving a great deal to the banks. Thats just
wrong."
"The absolute last thing we should do ... at the very
moment that Social Security has become the principal
lifeline for millions of our seniors is allow the program
to begin to be dismantled inch by inch...We should be
talking about expanding Social Security benefits not
cutting them."

92% (66%)

91% (67%)

93% (64%)

Elizabeth Warren is critical of big banks that have


successfully blocked parts of the Wall Street oversight
law that passed Congress, called Dodd-Frank. She
says, "Theres a lot of talk coming from Citigroup about
how the Dodd-Frank Act isnt perfect... I agree with you.
Dodd- Frank isnt perfect. It should have broken you into
pieces."

91% (48%)

92% (48%)

90% (47%)

Sen. Warren has raised concerns about the TransPacific Partnership or TPP, a proposed trade deal that
she says could weaken financial safeguards designed to
"prevent future financial crises" and "let subsidized
manufacturers around the globe sell here in America
while good American jobs get shipped overseas."

84% (50%)

83% (51%)

85% (49%)

Sen. Warren opposes building the Keystone XL oil


pipeline. She says its about "money and power. The
pipeline might not do much for the American people, but
it is worth a whole lot to the Canadian oil industry...This
pipeline runs terrible environmental risks, and it just
wont do much to help the American people."

77% (51%)

77% (55%)

76% (46%)

One finding that helps explain why these issues rose to the top is just how much strong
agreement there was, not just among those who describe their economic situation as falling
behind, but also among those who are just getting by and even getting ahead.
While Warrens policies are broadly popular across all age groups, some policies are particularly
appealing to groups at different ends of the age spectrum. Seniors are in very strong agreement
with expanding Social Security, though voters in all age groups are supportive. Similarly, voters
under 30 are the strongest backers of her student loan proposal, though that proposal is
extraordinarily popular across all ages.
Ultimately, all of Warrens policy positions that we tested have widespread appeal across
demographic groups.
Appeal of Warrens Economic Narrative

In addition to respondents agreeing with of her statements on the issues, Elizabeth Warrens
views on the economic condition of our country and her experience dealing with it received a
tremendously positive response among those surveyed. Respondents were asked whether they
agree or disagree with Warrens statements about the system being rigged and the need for
politicians to work for the people instead of the powerful. They were also asked how convincing
of a reason her working class background and her Wall Street oversight work are to supporting
her. Heres what resonated the most:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren's economic narrative
Do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Total agree listed first (strong agree in parentheses)

IA/NH
combo

Iowa

New
Hamp.

"No one should be above the law. If you steal a hundred bucks on
Main Street, youre probably going to jail. If you steal a billion
bucks on Wall Street, you darn well better go to jail too."

98% (93%)

98% (94%)

98% (92%)

"People feel like the system is rigged against them. And heres
the painful part: theyre right...Oil companies guzzle down billions
in profits. Billionaires pay lower tax rates than their secretaries.
And Wall Street CEOs the same ones who wrecked our
economy and destroyed millions of jobs still strut around
Congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we
should thank them. Does anyone... have a problem with that?
Well I do."

98% (83%)

97% (84%)

98% (82%)

Sen. Warren says, "I came out of a hardworking, middle-class


family. I came from an America that created opportunities for
people like me, and I now see an America where the government
works for people who already have money and power...We need
to remind politicians that they dont work for the big banks they
work for us."

97% (80%)

98% (82%)

97% (78%)

Is this a convincing reason to support Sen. Warren?


Total convincing listed first (very convincing in parentheses)

IA/NH
combo

Iowa

New
Hamp.

After the 2008 financial crisis, Time Magazine called Elizabeth


Warren a "New Sheriff of Wall Street" based on her
Congressional oversight work to hold Wall Street accountable.
And Warren led the charge to create the Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau, which has helped Americans that have been
ripped off recover more than $1.5 billion.

95% (63%)

93% (66%)

97% (59%)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren's biography

Elizabeth Warren says she grew up "on the ragged edge of the
middle class." After her dad suffered a heart attack and the bills
piled up, she started waiting tables at age 13. Her mom got a job
at Sears, and Warren says, "That minimum wage job saved our
home and saved our family ... Sure, I worked hard, but I grew
up in an America that invested in kids like me, an America that
built opportunities for kids to compete in a changing world, an
America where a janitors kid could become a United States
Senator. I believe in that America."

91% (52%)

92% (57%)

90% (46%)

Warren's positions are extraordinarily popular across men and women, voters of all ages and
education levels, stronger and weaker Democrats as well as Independents, city dwellers as well
as those in more rural areas, and those of different economic statuses. Thus a review of the
crosstabs offers only limited additional insight into the sources of her support.
For example, voters who are "falling behind" might be expected to strongly agree with Warren's
comment about the system being "rigged," and they do. Yet the agreement was just as high or
higher among those who described themselves as getting ahead, those with postgraduate
degrees and those 65+ years of age. In Iowa, for example 80.5% of respondents falling behind
strongly agreed, and 91.8% of those getting ahead also strongly agreed.
Support for a contested primary and for a Warren candidacy
During the survey, respondents were asked if they would support Elizabeth Warren for the
nomination, if Warren should run and if there should even be a competitive nomination contest
at all. And the answer to all, according to those surveyed, is yes.
Virtually every Iowa caucus goer and New Hampshire primary voter, including those supporting
Hillary Clinton in this survey, agrees with this argument in favor of a contested primary: More
than one candidate should compete for your support before getting your partys nomination. Its
good for candidates and the Democratic Party to have to formulate and explain their positions
on a range of issues. And its good for your state to have multiple candidates who are coming to
the state and educating voters about where they stand on the issues.
So the question becomes: who should compete? After hearing about Warrens views and
background, an overwhelming majority of respondents in both states would like to see Warren
to run for president. That includes 82% of those surveyed in Iowa and 76% of those surveyed in
New Hampshire.
Should Elizabeth Warren decide to run for president, the survey results indicate that many
voters are open to supporting her. Once voters are informed about her (and with no
negative information provided about any candidate), Elizabeth Warren leads the field with
31% support in Iowa and 30% in New Hampshire, followed by Hillary Clinton with 24%
and 27% support, respectively, and Bernie Sanders with 6% support in both states.

Meanwhile, a plurality of respondents remain unsure, including 35% in Iowa and 31% in New
Hampshire. We should note -- this is not a so-called clean head-to-head ballot question, as
voters were provided positive information about Warren but not other potential candidates. It
should not be read as reflecting how Iowans or Granite Staters would vote if the caucuses or
primary were held today. Rather, it should be read as an indicator that many voters in these
states are moveable, open to supporting Elizabeth Warren when they learn about her, and like
what she has to say. These results show that Elizabeth Warrens story and vision are
powerfully persuasive, and that an opening exists for her to build the levels of support
she would need to win in both states.
The findings also indicate that a significant percentage of those who support Hillary Clinton for
the nomination still think Elizabeth Warren should run for president. Across both states, 95% of
those who support Clinton agree that a contested primary is good for the party, the candidates
and the voters. And nearly 60% of Clinton backers would also like to see Warren join the race.
The results also show that Warren may have a particularly strong opportunity with the youngest
voters. In the head-to-head question among possible Democratic candidates, Warren performs
most strongly with respondents aged 18-29 -- she leads Clinton by 39% to 17% among
voters in this group. Young voters were a crucial part of the winning Obama coalition in 2008.
In the head-to-head, Warren leads narrowly among both women and men, and among voters
who are "falling behind" as well as "getting ahead" in the economy, while Hillary Clinton edges
out Warren among voters who are "getting by."
The key takeaways from this polling are that Elizabeth Warrens story and vision are powerfully
resonant with the voters she would need to win the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire
primary, and that she has a clear chance to obtain the support she needs to win. While turning
the findings of this survey into actual support will require Warren to enter the race and
effectively deliver her message, she can expect that by continuing to stand up to Wall Street on
behalf of Americas working families and to stand in favor of a more level economic playing field,
she herself could have more than a fighting chance of earning the Democratic nomination for
president.
--------------------------------------------For more data:
View topline results from Iowa: http://front.moveon.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/02/02.11.15_Toplines_IA.pdf
View crosstabs from Iowa: http://front.moveon.org/wpcontent/uploads/2015/02/02.11.15_Tabs_IA.pdf
View topline results from New Hampshire:
http://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/02.11.15_Toplines_NH.pdf
View crosstabs from New Hampshire:

http://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/02.11.15_Tabs_NH.pdf
View pooled toplines:
http://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/02.11.15_Pooled_Toplines.pdf
View pooled crosstabs:
http://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/02.11.15_Pooled_Tabs.pdf
--------------------------------------------Sampling description for IA study:
YouGov interviewed 491 respondents who were matched down to a sample of 400 to produce the final
dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame of registered Democratic voters by gender,
age, race, education, and ideology. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2013
American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with
replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and
turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2013 Current Population Survey.
Sampling description for NH study:
YouGov interviewed 461 respondents who were matched down to a sample of 400 to produce the final
dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame of registered Democratic voters by gender,
age, race, education, and ideology. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2013
American Community Survey (ACS) sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with
replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and
turnout were matched to this frame using the November 2013 Current Population Survey.
Methodology:
We have recruited and maintain an opt-in panel of 1.2 million adults. Our panelists were recruited through
web-based advertising campaigns, online advertisements, mail and telephone to web recruitment
campaigns. Panelists are actively engaged in our online community of expressing their opinions on a
variety of topics (see: https://today.yougov.com/) and invited to participate in surveys via their verified
email. The YouGov panel is large and demographically diverse which is required for sampling matching.
We construct representative samples with a two-stage sampling design. First, a sample frame is
constructed from the American Community Study with additional data from the Current Population voter
supplement and the Pew Religious Life Study. From the frame, YouGov draws a stratified random sample
of people in similar size to the desired study sample.
At the second stage, the sampling algorithm behind the proprietary sampling system searches the opt-in
panel for respondents who most closely match the individuals in the randomly drawn target sample. And,
unlike quota sampling, we are not targeting marginal demographic distributions, but rather combinations
of characteristics simultaneously.
The algorithm invites 2-3 matches for every respondent in the target frame. At its core, the matching
criteria include age x race x gender x education. The resulting sample has the characteristics of a
random sample. Systematic comparisons of YouGov samples with RDD (telephone) samples and face to
face interviews indicate trivial differences between telephone and online mode (Ansolabehere and Shafer
2010). It is a unique method among research firms and one that has required years of retrofitting to the
population based on election results.

YouGov reports a margin of sampling error for its surveys because, like all polls, the results are subject to
random variability that is an inherent part of the sampling process. The reported margin of error is
computed using the standard error formula described in Rivers and Bailey (2009). As noted by Gelman
and Little (1997), this estimate is conservative, in the sense of slightly over-estimating the sampling error.
Because we adjust for the impact of weighting, the reported margins of error for our surveys will be higher
than those for survey of equivalent size which fail to adjust for weighting. The margin of error for
subsamples will be larger and is reported separately for subsamples based on substantially smaller
sample sizes. The reported margin of error for the combined IA/NH sample is 4.6%. For Iowa it is 6.7%,
and for New Hampshire it is 6.3%.

You might also like