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Increased incarceration had a limited effect on reducing crime for the last two
decades: Increased incarceration had some effect, likely somewhere around 0-10 percent,
on reducing crime from 1990 to 2000. Since 2000, however, increased incarceration had an
almost zero effect on crime. Further, a number of states -- California, Michigan, New Jersey,
New York, and Texas -- have successfully reduced imprisonment while crime continued to
fall.
Other factors reduced crime: Increased numbers of police officers, some data-driven
policing techniques, changes in income, decreased alcohol consumption, and an aging
* Lauren-Brooke Eisen is Counsel and Julia Bowling is Research Associate at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. They
are co-authors of What Caused the Crime Decline?
population played a role in reducing crime. In particular, this report finds that the policing
technique known as CompStat is associated with a 5 to 15 percent decrease in crime. A
review of past research indicates that consumer confidence and inflation also likely
contributed to crime reduction.
Incarceration & Crime in Ohio
As illustrated in Figure 1, Ohio imprisons 447 people per 100,000, a lower rate than the U.S. rate
overall of 496 people per 100,000.
In 2011, Ohio passed a bipartisan law to reduce its prison population. Among other changes, the law
reduced the maximum sentences for many crimes, including most burglaries and some drug
offenses. It also allowed prisoners to earn time off their sentences by completing education and
mental health programs. The state also bolstered statewide community-based alternatives to prison.
Figure 1: Imprisonment Rates in Ohio and the U.S. (1980-2013)
As shown in Figure 2, as incarceration rose from 1980 (when Ohio had 13,489 prisoners), the
effectiveness of increased incarceration adding new prisoners steadily declined. By 1997,
imprisonment increased 256 percent to 48,016 prisoners, and effectiveness on crime declined to
essentially zero. The marginal effect on crime of adding more people to prisons remains at
essentially zero today.
This reports findings support further reforms to reduce Ohios incarcerated population and show
this can be achieved without added crime.