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In this chapter the characterisation of the mean rainfall is worked out based on
Intensity/Duration/Frequency-relationships (IDF-relationships).
New IDF-relationships are developed making optimal use of new methodologies
and the current computer technology (paragraph 2.1). The new IDF-relationships
are then compared with earlier (in Flanders) used design rainfall (paragraph 2.2).
Furthermore, the simplification into mean rainfall input for sewer system
calculations is worked out, which leads to composite design storms (paragraph 2.3).
These composite storms have been set up for three different applications as there are
: combined sewer system design (original application), hydrological calculations for
long storm durations (paragraph 2.3.4) and modelling the influence of rain water
storage tanks (paragraph 2.3.5). The applicability of these single storms and the
accuracy of the obtained results is discussed in chapter 5 for the design calculations and
in chapter 6 for the impact calculations.
2.1
IDF-relationships
2.1.1 The physical link with the design : the concentration time
The use of rainfall Intensity/Duration/Frequency-relationships (IDF-relationships)
has been standard practice for many decades for the design of sewer systems and other
hydraulic structures. The IDF-relationships give an idea about the frequency or
return period of a mean rainfall intensity or rainfall volume that can be expected
within a certain period, i.e. the storm duration. In this sense the storm duration is
an artificial parameter that can comprise any part of a rainfall event. IDF-relationships
are certainly not old fashioned. Even in this computer age they provide a lot of
information on the rainfall and they can be used as a base for the determination of
design storms. The reason is the physically based link between IDF-relationships
and hydraulic design, i.e. the concentration time.
The concentration time is the time the rainfall needs in order to travel from the
remotest place in the catchment to the point in the sewer system where the design
calculation is made [Chow, 1964]. For a sewer system this means that
the concentration time is the sum of the inlet time (time that the water flows over the
surface to the sewer system) and the flow time (time that the water flows through the
sewer system from the point where it enters the system to the design point). There will
be a contribution to the flow in the design point from the whole upstream catchment if
the storm duration is at least equal to the concentration time. This means that for a
certain (constant) rainfall intensity a maximum for the flow will be obtained at the
Chapter 2 : IDF-relationships and design storms
2.1
calculation point after a duration equal to the concentration time (if there is an equal
contribution of the whole catchment). Therefore, the duration of the storm equal to the
concentration time is the critical storm duration. The concentration time and thus
also the critical storm duration are specific parameters for each point. There is no
single critical duration for the whole catchment. For the upstream points, short storm
durations will be critical and for more downstream points and larger catchments longer
storm durations will be critical.
For a certain frequency or return period the mean rainfall intensity over short durations
will be higher than over longer durations. In figure 2.1 the rainfall intensities are
shown for durations of 10, 20 and 30 minutes for a return period of 2 years (see
paragraph 2.1.5). If these hyetographs are (equally) flattened over the same
concentration time of 20 minutes, the storm with a duration of 20 minutes will lead to
a maximum effect (figure 2.1). This means that for a certain return period the
critical storm duration (thus equal to the concentration time) will lead to the
maximum effect. When a peaked rainfall event is flattened over the concentration
time, the difference between the peak of the resulting hydrograph and the peak of the
initial rainfall event is equal to this concentration time. If this behaviour is inverted,
it can be concluded that the concentration time can be approximated (from simulations)
as the time difference between the peak rainfall and the peak flow in every point.
60
40
30
20
10
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
time (minutes)
2.2
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
As the flow time over the surface and through the sewer system are dependent on
the flow velocity and the velocity is in some extent related to the rainfall input,
the concentration time will actually not be a constant value for one specific point.
This means that the concentration time in reality is not a static, but a dynamic parameter
(i.e. a function of the rainfall intensity or flow : see paragraph 3.2.2).
2.3
2.4
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
2.5
1 /year
10
2 /year
5 /year
10 /year
20 /year
0.1
10
100
storm
duration
1000
(minutes)
Figure 2.3 : IDF-relationships for Uccle for frequencies between 1 and 20 p.a.
using the monotone ranking technique for independent rainfall volumes.
2.6
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
2.7
2.8
regression coefficients
a1
a2
a3
a4
1582.844
14.36867
1.26778
- 0.094137
2517.828
17.37187
1.54020
- 0.156110
241.519
5.17747
0.83104
- 0.026011
134.960
3.59031
0.66541
0.006106
43.081
- 3.34774
0.30920
0.074643
48.737
- 1.33084
0.38552
0.056565
53.513
- 0.36559
0.44984
0.041244
55.995
0.84588
0.48095
0.035051
63.669
2.35176
0.54523
0.021303
10
47.347
0.74991
0.45944
0.038036
11
41.887
1.23952
0.42563
0.045611
12
38.843
1.17893
0.41168
0.048418
13
31.885
- 0.77606
0.35975
0.058012
14
33.058
0.30195
0.38236
0.053515
15
32.163
0.79145
0.38115
0.054113
16
35.931
2.34597
0.42473
0.046139
17
30.211
0.59111
0.37697
0.055318
18
29.247
1.41954
0.36850
0.058166
19
24.792
1.15932
0.31684
0.068966
20
21.208
- 0.52011
0.27076
0.078386
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
1 /year
2 /year
5 /year
10 /year
10
1
10
100
storm
duration
1000
(minutes)
Figure 2.4 : Fitting for the IDF-relationships for frequencies between 1 and 10 p.a.
(markers = original ranked data, lines = fitting).
2.1.5 The use of extreme value estimation for high return periods
For increasing return periods the IDF-relationships become more inaccurate if only the
monotonic ranking method is used. Therefore, extreme value analyses were performed
by Willems [Willems, 1998c; Vaes et al., 1994c, d, 1996]. An upper limit of
360 minutes for the storm duration was chosen, because in sewer design larger
concentration times rarely occur for the high return periods. If longer storm durations
would be included, the accuracy for the small storm duration would decrease.
The peak over threshold method was applied, which means that all rainfall volumes
that exceed a certain threshold i0 are selected from the historical rainfall series. The
120 most extreme (independent) rainfall volumes were used for each storm duration
between 10 and 360 minutes (partial duration series). This leads to the overall
optimal threshold. Different types of distributions were tested and the best fit was
obtained with the exponential distribution.
An exponential distribution leads to the following relationship for the return period
T (in [years]) as a function of the rainfall intensity i (in [mm/h]) :
(2.4)
2.9
In this formula, n is the length of the historical rainfall series (= 27 years) and m the
number of extreme rainfall volumes used (= 120). The two parameters of this
distribution i0 (threshold intensity) and $ (mean intensity) are the characterising
intensities for the distribution (both in [mm/h]). Because these parameters behave as
intensities, they can be fitted as a function of the storm duration )t (in [min]) using the
modified Talbot-Montana formula (equation (2.2)), which leads to :
(2.5)
(2.6)
In figure 2.5 the IDF-relationships are shown for return periods of 2, 5, 10 and 20 years
obtained with this extreme value estimation.
Since the implementation of the new guidelines for sewer system design in 1996,
these IDF-relationships were introduced for common use in Flanders [VMM, 1996].
In appendix A.3 these IDF-relationships are listed in numerical form.
rainfall intensity (mm/h)
100
10
20 years
10 years
5 years
2 years
1
10
100
1000
2.10
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
2.2
6.644 log (T + 9)
log i = 9.68 0.835
0.65 log T 4387
. t 0.00735
(2.7)
6.644 log (T + 9)
10.312 0.835
+ 0.9 log T + 46.37
in which i is the rainfall intensity in [mm/h], T is the return period in [year] and )t is
the storm duration in [min]. Some of the resulting IDF-relationships are listed in
table 2.3. The differences with the new IDF-relationships are mainly due to the
different rainfall period which has been used and due to the differences in independency
criterion. The independency criterion of Laurant is less strict, which can lead to higher
intensities, especially for more frequent rainfall events. The higher intensities for small
2.11
storm durations probably have the same cause as for the IDF-relationships of Demare
(see paragraph 2.2.1), i.e. the smaller time step for the rainfall data.
10
20
30
60
120
240
360
2.12
10
20
51.1
69
80.8
92.2
52.4
65.4
75.2
85
2.5%
-5.5%
-7.4%
-8.5%
33.6
46.3
54.7
62.7
37.2
46.5
53.6
60.6
9.7%
0.4%
-2.1%
-3.5%
25.2
35
41.6
47.8
29
36.3
41.8
47.2
13.1%
3.6%
0.5%
-1.3%
15.1
20.9
24.8
28.4
17.8
22.1
25.4
28.6
15.2%
5.4%
2.4%
0.7%
12.3
14.5
16.6
10.4
12.7
14.5
16.3
13.5%
3.2%
0.0%
-1.8%
5.4
7.3
8.5
9.7
7.2
8.2
9.1
10.0%
-1.4%
-3.7%
-6.6%
3.9
5.3
6.2
7.1
4.3
5.2
5.8
6.5
9.3%
-1.9%
-6.9%
-9.2%
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
10
20
30
60
120
240
360
frequency [1/years]
1
10
40.77
34.25
27.36
23.14
41.91
32.34
21.34
14.49
2.7%
-5.9%
-28.2%
-59.7%
24.98
21.05
15.88
14.31
29.79
23.18
13.97
10.1
16.1%
9.2%
-13.7%
-41.7%
18.74
15.82
12.71
10.8
23.26
18.14
11.01
8.08
19.4%
12.8%
-15.4%
-33.7%
11.44
9.69
7.81
6.65
14.34
11.2
7.29
5.43
20.2%
13.5%
-7.1%
-22.5%
6.96
5.92
4.79
4.09
8.47
6.63
4.75
3.58
17.8%
10.7%
-0.8%
-14.2%
4.23
3.61
2.93
2.51
4.95
3.94
3.02
2.32
14.5%
8.4%
3.0%
-8.2%
3.15
2.7
2.2
1.88
3.63
2.94
2.29
1.79
13.2%
8.2%
3.9%
-5.0%
2.13
2.14
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
2.3
Composite storms
The instantaneous rainfall intensity r(t) within the composite storm can then be
described by the following differential equation as a function of the rainfall intensity
i()t) from the IDF-relationships [Vaes & Berlamont, 1995] :
2.15
(2.8)
wherein the time t can be introduced as a function of the storm duration )t (figure 2.7) :
(2.9)
To develop these composite storms, the fitted IDF-relationships were used to avoid
a non-monotonous curve. To serve as rainfall input for numerical calculations,
the design storms must be discretised. As the initial rainfall time step was 10 minutes
and the nature of this composite storms leads to a time step halving (half of the duration
at each side of the symmetry axis), the composite storms are discretised with a time step
of 5 minutes.
Composite storms were developed for return periods starting from 2 years using
the IDF-relationships based on the extreme value estimations for storm durations up to
)tmax equal to 360 minutes (see paragraph 2.1.5). These composite storms can be used
for design applications. Since the new guidelines of 1996 for sewer system design,
these composite storms are commonly introduced for hydrodynamic simulations
in Flanders [VMM, 1996; Aquafin, 1996]. An example is shown in figure 2.8.
Also composite storms were developed for frequencies between 1 and 20 p.a. using
the IDF-relationships based on the monotone ranking technique (after fitting) for storm
durations up to )tmax = 720 minutes (see paragraph 2.1.4). These storms may be used
for impact calculations. All these composite storms are included in the (in Flanders)
currently used software Hydroworks, starting from version 4.0 [WS, 1998].
rainfall intensity (mm/h)
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
6
time (hour)
2.16
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
2.17
profile is acceptable.
2.18
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
2.19
0.8
0.7
antecedent condities
0.6
posteriori condities
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
IDF-intensity (mm/h)
Figure 2.11 : Comparison between the medians of the antecedent and the posterior
rainfall for a storm duration of 60 minutes.
2.20
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
intensity (mm/h)
45
40
composite storm
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
420
480
540
600
660 720
time (min)
45
40
composite storm
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
420
480
540
2.21
(2.12)
The parameters i0 (threshold intensity), $a and $b (mean intensities) and the
proportionality factor p in equations (2.10) till (2.12) are fitted as a function of the
storm duration )t using the Montana formula [Demare, 1985] :
(2.13)
(2.14)
(2.15)
(2.16)
The parameters i0, $a and $b are expressed in [mm/h] and the storm duration is in [days].
The first component Ga(i) leads to peaked storms, while the second component Gb(i)
leads to more flattened storms. The assumption was made that this originates from the
differences in rainfall in summer (thunderstorms) and in winter (frontal storms).
To investigate this, the rainfall series was divided in two periods : a summer period
from April till September and a winter period from October till March (other divisions
in semesters were checked, but they did not give a more clear divergence in the
IDF-relationships). Then, it was checked whether the derived distributions for these
2.22
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
two periods, the summer distribution Gs(i) and the winter distribution Gw(i), can be
written as a function of the previously found two exponential components :
(2.17)
(2.18)
This comparison showed that the winter distribution Gw(i) corresponds very well to the
second component Gb(i). This means that pw is approximately 0. The summer
distribution Gs(i) remains a function of both exponential components Ga(i) and Gb(i) of
the global distribution. The first component Ga(i) yields a dominant contribution to the
short storm durations and gradually decreases in importance for increasing storm
durations.
A better estimation of the extreme rainfall events for the long durations is obtained if
the component Ga(i) is slightly adjusted to Ga*(i) [Willems, 1998d; Willems et al.,
1999] :
(2.19)
With :
*a = a + b ( 1 )
(2.20)
= 1 exp 40 p* 0113
.
(2.21)
(2.22)
The return period T [years] can be calculated from the global distribution as :
(2.23)
Wherein :
The superposition of the two seasonal distributions Gs(i) and Gw(i) must lead to the
same return period as for the global distribution G(i). The sum of the frequency of
a rainfall intensity in summer (fs = 1/Ts) and the frequency of the same rainfall intensity
in winter (fw = 1/Tw) is equal to the frequency of that rainfall intensity in one year
(f = 1/T) :
f = f w + fs
(2.24)
2.23
or :
1
1
1
=
+
T Tw Ts
(2.25)
The return period T can be obtained analogously as illustrated for different boundary
conditions in paragraph 5.5.2 and figure 5.13.
Using equations (2.23), (2.10), (2.12) and (2.19), equation (2.24) leads to :
m ( 1 G (i) ) = m m p* G*a (i) + m 1 p* G b (i)
(2.26)
Using equations (2.23), (2.17) and (2.18) the right hand side of the equation (2.24)
leads to (in the assumption that pw = 0 and m = ms + mw) :
ms 1 G s (i) + mw 1 G w (i)
m p
(2.27)
(2.29)
( m ms )( 1 G b (i) )
(2.30)
In these formulas the parameters m and ms are function of the storm duration via the
threshold intensity i0 (in [mm/h]) (equation 2.15) :
(2.31)
(2.32)
The matching IDF-relationships are listed in appendix A.4 for the summer storms and
in appendix A.5 for the winter storms.
2.24
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
Based on these IDF-relationships for long storm durations, composite storms have been
determined with a time step of hour (half of the time step used for the
IDF-relationships) for return periods between 2 and 2000 years [Vaes et al., 1998a, b].
As the initial rainfall series only contained 27 years of rainfall, this is a large
extrapolation, which must be handled with care. As an example, in figure 2.15
a composite summer storm is shown with a return period of 10 years, while in
figure 2.16 a composite winter storm is shown with the same return period.
In figure 2.14 the central part (1 day) of both storms is compared for a return period of
5 years.
22
20
18
winter storm
16
summer storm
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
168
171
174
177
180
183
186
189
192
time (hours)
Figure 2.14 : Comparison of the central part (1 day) of the composite summer and
winter storms for long durations for a return period of 5 years.
These seasonal varying IDF-relationships and composite storms can be compared for
the central part with the composite storms which were developed in paragraph 2.3.1
for the application in sewer system design. The summer IDF-relationships for storm
durations up to 6 hours correspond very well to those for sewer system design.
This shows that design storms for short storm durations and high return periods are
mainly based on summer storms (thunderstorms). This was already shown in
figure 1.5. For long storm durations, the influence of the rainfall in other seasons gains
importance. For very high return periods the differences between the summer storms
and the composite storms for sewer system design become larger, because the
uncertainty increases strongly for these extreme value estimations.
2.25
intensity (mm/h)
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
11
12
13 14 15
time (day)
intensity (mm/h)
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
11
12
13 14 15
time (day)
2.26
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design
An important additional reason to separate summer and winter storms is that the initial
and boundary conditions for rainfall runoff from pervious areas can differ significantly
in the different seasons. The storms have to be used with the proper corresponding
parameters for the state of the catchment. Because these state parameters are very
important for pervious areas and for long concentration times, the intrinsic variability
of the rainfall becomes more important. Therefore, these composite storms (with only
mean rainfall included) can only provide a rough estimation of the relationships
between return period and flow or water level.
2.27
The influence of this smoothing is more pronounced for small storm durations and for
rain water tanks with a large retention function. Depending on which regression will
give the best correlation, the exponential distribution will be kept or the Pareto
distribution will be used. The application of a simple regression will be sufficient in
this case, because no extrapolation will be made for return periods higher than the total
length of the original rainfall series. In the end a linear regression will be used on the
reduction coefficients as a function of the storm duration, to obtain a monotonous
modified composite storm.
2.28
The influence of rainfall and model simplification on combined sewer system design