Irelands Energy Forecasts

Matthew Clancy Energy Modelling Group

Overview
The modelling process
Input assumptions and impact of economic uncertainty
Scenarios and energy targets
Key messages

Energy Forecasts
Method, Assumptions and Scenarios

Process

Stakeholder
Consultation

Energy
Balance

SEAI
Forecast
Numbers

Assumptions
and
Scenarios

IsUs
Energy
Demand

PLEXOS
Electricity
ESRI
Modelling
Output

Stakeholder
Consultation

Baseline
NEEAP/NREAP
Sensitivities

NEEAP
Savings

Fuel price assumptions

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

85.7

86.2

87.0

88.6

90.8

(DECC
Projections)

15.3

16.7

19.4

19.3

19.3

Gas

40.7

47.5

47.2

47.2

47.2

7.2

10

17

27

37

/boe
Oil Projections
(E3M Lab EU Ref
Scenario)

Coal

(DECC
Projections)

/tCO2
EU-ETS
Carbon Price
(EU Reference
Scenario)

Fuel price assumptions Oil ($/barrel)

140

120

100

$/barrel

80
EU Ref Scenario
60

40

20

Historic Oil Price

Fuel price assumptions Gas ( p/Th)

80

70

Gas Price GBP (pence /Therm)

60

50

40

DECC Central Scenraio

Historic Gas Price

30

20

10

Macro-economic assumptions
2005-10

2010-15

2015-20

2020-25

2025-30

GDP

0.1

2.0

3.9

2.0

2.0

GNP
National Resources
(GNDI + Capital
Transfers)

-0.3

1.2

3.5

2.0

2.3

-1.5

0.4

3.7

2.1

3.1

Investment

-12.0

1.2

10.1

1.7

3.9

Productivity (GDP per

head)

0.8

2.0

1.6

1.3

0.9

Average NonAgricultural Earnings

1.5

1.2

3.8

3.9

3.1

Employment, April

-0.7

0.1

2.2

0.7

1.0

Labour Force, April

1.6

-0.2

0.7

0.8

0.6

For end Year:

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Net Immigration

-27.5

-16.5

0.8

0.7

2.9

Unemployment rate,
ILO Basis %

16.4

15.2

8.9

9.3

7.3

Balance of Payments,
% of GNP

0.5

5.7

4.3

3.9

4.2

Scenarios

Baseline Scenario (with measures)

Measures in place before the end 2012
Recent policy (EE and renewables) measures
Benchmark to measure other scenarios against

NEEAP/NREAP Scenario (with additional measures)

Establish the level of policy effort required to meet targets
National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP)
20% EE saving in 2020 compared to 2001-2005 baseline

National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP)

Two Binding Targets from Renewable Energy Directive
16% renewable energy share of total consumption 10% in transport

No new policy post 2020

Impact of economic uncertainty

14,000
13,500

2009 forecast (WP Plus)

13,000
2010 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)

12,500
ktoe

2011 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)

12,000
2012 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)

11,500
2013 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)

11,000
10,500
10,000
2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Energy forecasts 2020 targets and

where we are now

Headline 2020 targets for Ireland

Energy Efficiency

Renewable Energy

20% energy savings

by 2020
(31,925 GWh)

Overall 16% RES of national

consumption.
Three sub-targets
o
o
o

RES-Electricity 40%
RES-Heat 12%
RES-Transport 10%

Emissions
EU Effort Sharing Decision (2013 2020)
20% reduction non-ETS emissions relative to
2005
o Annual limits
o

Target interaction 1 EE & RE

10%

Electricity
40%

Transport

10%

Electricity
40%

Transport
Heat
Heat

12%

12%
Efficiency gains make renewables targets easier

Target interaction 2 Shift demand

10%

10%

Electricity
40%

Transport

Electricity

Transport

40%

Heat
12%

12%

Heat

Shift demand into end use sector where ready solutions

exist(e.g. electrification of heat and transport)

Context for Renewable Energy in 2012

RE Directive = 7.1%
of GFC
RES-T
3.8%
RES-H
5.2%
RES-E
19.6%

What's required to meet the

targets?

Energy Efficiency
Success requires

575
million

100,000 home
upgrades p.a.

2011

2.5
billion
p/a
2020

1 bn investment per
year
Business and public
sector savings

Renewable Electricity
Success requires
19.6%

Deploy 250 MW per

annum, up from 170

2012

40%
2020

Biomass CHP,
Waste to Energy,
Co-firing

Renewable Transport
10%

Success requires
200,000
EVs

8-9%
biofuels

Rapid growth in electric

vehicles

Requires international
supply of acceptable
biofuels

3.8%

Develop
Biogas

2012

2020

Use of waste material to

produce biogas for
transport

Renewable Heat
12%

Current policy will

not deliver target

Services
Household

Target requires the

equivalent of
300,000 homes
installing
renewable heat

Industry

5.2
%

Industry offers
quick wins

2012

2020

What energy sources are required to

meet RES targets?
Other
Renewable
Sources, 50%

Bioenergy, 50%

% contribution to 2020
RES targets

Biofuels in transport
AD and solid biomass in
heat and electricity

Wind, hydro and

ocean in electricity
EVs in transport
Heat-pumps for heat

Key Messages

Key Messages
Energy demand projections have been falling in-line with
forecasts of economic growth and policy action
No new polices post 2020 modelled
Level of effort to reach 2020 energy targets
Bioenergy has a large role to paly

Thank you