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where E = earnings per share and G = the anticipated growth rate over a
projected period (normally 10 years).
Graham thought that as the choice for the investor was between putting money into
common stocks or into the greater safety of bonds, it was appropriate to take into
account the rate of interest paid on a first quality bond in determining the intrinsic
value of a stock. In devising his formula, Graham took into account the then
prevailing (1962) rate on triple A corporate bonds listed on the New York Stock
Exchange of 4.4 per cent.
where:
IV = Intrinsic value
E= Earnings per share
G= expected growth rate
Y= the current yield of triple A rated corporate bonds
Even so, this still remains very subjective. For example, the average yield on 10
year Treasury Notes from 1900 to date is about 4 per cent but in the last forty
years, theaverage has been 6.6 per cent.
The Graham formula suggests that you should use the current rate because you are
making your investment decision on todays values, but we suppose if you really
want to build in a safety margin, you could use the higher average yield of 6.6 per
cent. This would, however, limit your investment options.
Using the Graham modified formula, the intrinsic value of a share in XYZ Company
then is $99.11.