ARMA

time
profit
12/31/1899 147.5668
1/1/1900 146.0943
1/2/1900 147.7221
1/3/1900 149.0004
1/4/1900 147.7604
1/5/1900 146.2792
1/6/1900 146.6583
1/7/1900 147.3149
1/8/1900 147.2090
1/9/1900 146.9271
1/10/1900 145.9879
1/11/1900 146.7721
1/12/1900 147.1221
1/13/1900 146.5044
1/14/1900 145.9390
1/15/1900 147.4680
1/16/1900 148.5514
1/17/1900 146.8237
1/18/1900 146.5480
1/19/1900 147.1923
1/20/1900 147.3667
1/21/1900 147.2488
1/22/1900 146.9342
1/23/1900 149.0844
1/24/1900 148.3461
1/25/1900 146.8894
1/26/1900 148.5118
1/27/1900 149.0733
1/28/1900 149.2082
1/29/1900 147.7394
1/30/1900 147.2978
1/31/1900 147.5630
2/1/1900 149.0105
2/2/1900 150.4112
2/3/1900 146.8475
2/4/1900 146.2616
2/5/1900 146.4859
2/6/1900 147.3679
2/7/1900 149.6319
2/8/1900 149.8980
2/9/1900 146.9784
2/10/1900 147.0834
2/11/1900 147.8016
2/12/1900 147.7513
2/13/1900
2/14/1900
2/15/1900
2/16/1900
2/17/1900
2/18/1900
2/19/1900
2/20/1900
2/21/1900
2/22/1900
2/23/1900
2/24/1900
2/25/1900
2/26/1900
2/27/1900
2/28/1900
3/1/1900
3/2/1900
3/3/1900
3/4/1900
3/5/1900
3/6/1900
3/7/1900
3/8/1900
3/9/1900
3/10/1900
3/11/1900
3/12/1900
3/13/1900
3/14/1900
3/15/1900
3/16/1900
3/17/1900
3/18/1900
3/19/1900
3/20/1900
3/21/1900
3/22/1900
3/23/1900
3/24/1900
3/25/1900
3/26/1900
3/27/1900
3/28/1900
3/29/1900
149.3800
149.5489
147.4926
144.9824
145.3350
146.7720
146.0442
146.3095
147.5094
149.3435
149.0148
147.0977
145.7509
145.8891
147.4355
147.3482
147.5607
148.5183
148.5075
149.3662
150.0657
148.0532
146.1581
145.8588
146.0091
147.7285
149.1882
147.1118
146.0142
147.6981
147.3392
146.2841
147.7056
147.9286
146.0839
146.2817
145.9726
147.4584
148.5674
148.5350
149.0556
149.2900
149.0091
147.9412
147.1389
3/30/1900
3/31/1900
4/1/1900
4/2/1900
4/3/1900
4/4/1900
4/5/1900
4/6/1900
4/7/1900
4/8/1900
4/9/1900
146.9769
147.8296
148.5001
146.3135
147.2141
147.8500
148.2073
150.1447
149.0234
148.6424
148.6932
ARIMA Mode
Autocorrelation
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
DF
6
12
18
24
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Augmented Dic
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
Warning: The model defined by the new estimates is unstable. The iteration process has been term
Warning: Estimates may not have converged.
Conditional
Parameter
MU
MA1,1
MA1,2
MA1,3
AR1,1
Estimate
147.5502072
0.125894957
0.809924499
0.06417516
0.955475836
* AIC and SBC do n
Correlation
Parameter
MU
MU
1.000
MA1,1
MA1,2
MA1,3
AR1,1
-0.743
-0.827
0.017
-0.834
Autocorrelati
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
1.49
6.88
10.25
14.22
DF
2
8
14
20
Pr > ChiSq
0.4737
0.5499
0.7434
0.8194
Warning: Observation 60 is out of order according to the ID variable TIME.
Forecasts fo
Obs
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
Forecast
147.7169
147.3728
147.3596
147.3681
147.3762
147.3839
147.3913
147.3984
147.4052
147.4116
147.4178
147.4237
147.4293
147.4347
147.4398
147.4448
147.4495
147.4539
147.4582
147.4623
147.4662
147.4700
147.4735
147.4770
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_D
ARIMA Mode
Ac
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_D
ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting

Results
Name of Variable = profit
Mean of Working Series
Standard Deviation
Number of Observations
Autocorrelation Check for White Noise
Autocorrelations
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests
Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003
mates is unstable. The iteration process has been terminated.
ARIMA Estimation Optimization Summary

Estimation Method
Parameters Estimated
Termination Criteria
Iteration Stopping Value
Criteria Value
Maximum Absolute Value of Gradient
R-Square Change from Last Iteration
Objective Function
Objective Function Value
Marquardt's Lambda Coefficient
Numerical Derivative Perturbation Delta
Iterations
Warning Message
Conditional Least Squares Estimation
Standard Error
0.343792375
0.175832043
0.1190972981
0.1098239377
0.1155329045
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant.
Correlations of Parameter Estimates

MA1,1
-0.743
1.000
0.564
-0.562
0.801
Autocorrelation Check of Residuals
Autocorrelations
0.004
0.025
-0.073
-0.088
Model for variable profit

Estimated Mean
Autoregressive Factors
Factor 1:
Moving Average Factors
Factor 1:
ding to the ID variable TIME.

Forecasts for variable profit
Std Error
0.9176
1.1922
1.1923
1.1946
1.1967
1.1986
1.2004
1.2020
1.2034
1.2047
1.2059
1.2070
1.2080
1.2089
1.2098
1.2105
1.2112
1.2118
1.2124
1.2129
1.2134
1.2139
1.2143
1.2146
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:47:02 PM

Actual Values
A Modeling and Forecasting

Results
147.5931
1.194114
100
relation Check for White Noise

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
ted Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
en terminated.
MA Estimation Optimization Summary

Conditional Least Squares
5
Maximum Relative Change in Estimates
0.001
2.344517
15.13294
0.251542
Sum of Squared Residuals
79.98671
1.00E-06
0.001
16
Estimates may not have converged.
ditional Least Squares Estimation

t Value
429.18
0.72
6.80
0.58
8.27
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.4758
0.0000
0.5604
0.0000
Lag
0
1
2
3
1
MA1,3
0.017
AR1,1
-0.834
6.56955
0.841965
0.917587
271.4567
284.4826
100
BC do not include log determinant.
elations of Parameter Estimates

MA1,2
-0.827
0.564
1.000
-0.208
0.763
-0.562
-0.208
1.000
-0.207
0.801
0.763
-0.207
1.000
-0.020
-0.086
-0.083
0.065
-0.065
0.079
-0.042
0.102
-0.064
0.040
0.002
-0.053
orrelation Check of Residuals

Autocorrelations

147.5502
1 - 0.95548 B**(1)
1 - 0.12589 B**(1) - 0.80992 B**(2) - 0.06418 B**(3)
asts for variable profit

95% Confidence Limits
145.9185
145.0361
145.0226
145.0266
145.0306
145.0347
145.0386
145.0426
145.0465
145.0504
145.0542
145.0580
145.0617
145.0652
145.0688
145.0722
145.0755
145.0788
145.0819
145.0850
145.0880
145.0908
145.0936
145.0963
149.5153
149.7095
149.6965
149.7095
149.7217
149.7332
149.7440
149.7542
149.7638
149.7728
149.7813
149.7894
149.7970
149.8042
149.8109
149.8173
149.8234
149.8291
149.8345
149.8396
149.8445
149.8491
149.8535
149.8576
', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:47:02 PM

Actual Values
', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:47:05 PM
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr > F
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073
0.071
-0.023
-0.041
-0.016
0.017
0.175
-0.110
-0.072
ARIMA Modeling and
Results
Autocorrelation Check
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
DF
6
12
18
24
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Augmented Dickey-Fulle
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
Warning: Estimates did not improve after a ridge was encountered in the objective function. The it
Warning: Estimates may not have converged.
Conditional Least Sq
Parameter
MU
MA1,1
MA1,2
AR1,1
AR1,2
Estimate
147.6470803
-1.84542952
-0.84835484
-0.9780628
0.017653345
* AIC and SBC do not includ
Correlations of Para
Parameter
MU
MU
MA1,1
MA1,2
AR1,1
AR1,2
1.000
-0.015
-0.022
0.056
0.034
Autocorrelation Chec
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
1.89
6.45
10.33
14.30
DF
2
8
14
20
Pr > ChiSq
0.3893
0.5972
0.7375
0.8150
Forecasts for variabl

Obs
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
Forecast
147.7489
147.6666
147.6298
147.6643
147.6299
147.6642
147.6301
147.6640
147.6302
147.6639
147.6304
147.6637
147.6305
147.6636
147.6306
147.6634
147.6308
147.6633
147.6309
147.6632
147.6311
147.6630
147.6312
147.6629
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2)
ARIMA Modeling and
Actual Valu
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2)

Results
Standard Deviation
Autocorrelations
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110
Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003
dge was encountered in the objective function. The iteration process has been terminated.
ARIMA Estimation Optimization Summary

Estimation Method
Parameters Estimated
Termination Criteria
Iteration Stopping Value
Criteria Value
Maximum Absolute Value of Gradient
R-Square Change from Last Iteration
Objective Function
Objective Function Value
Marquardt's Lambda Coefficient
Numerical Derivative Perturbation Delta
Iterations
Warning Message
Standard Error
0.1718339307
0.0195493436
0.0188819635
0.104595404
0.1244589259
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals

MA1,1
-0.015
1.000
0.707
0.185
0.014
Autocorrelations
0.000
0.013
-0.074
-0.077

Estimated Mean
Factor 1:
Factor 1:
ding to the ID variable TIME.

Std Error
0.9264
1.2263
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264
1.2264

Actual Values
ing and Forecasting
Results
e of Variable = profit
147.5931
1.194114
100
Check for White Noise

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
Pr > F
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
ey-Fuller Unit Root Tests
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073
The iteration process has been terminated.
ation Optimization Summary

Conditional Least Squares
5
Maximum Relative Change in Estimates
0.001
8.54E-16
0.657589
0.002179
Sum of Squared Residuals
81.52295
1.00E+12
0.001
44
Estimates may not have converged.
east Squares Estimation

t Value
859.24
-94.40
-44.93
-9.35
0.14
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.8875
Lag
0
1
2
1
2
AR1,1
AR1,2
289.4487
0.858136
0.926356
273.3591
286.385
100
ot include log determinant.
of Parameter Estimates
MA1,2
-0.022
0.707
1.000
0.124
0.399
0.056
0.185
0.124
1.000
0.803
0.034
0.014
0.399
0.803
1.000
-0.008
-0.085
-0.093
0.060
-0.106
0.065
-0.046
0.109
-0.060
0.039
-0.009
-0.055
n Check of Residuals
Autocorrelations
0.052
-0.019
-0.037
-0.018
0.017
0.162
-0.120
-0.077
del for variable profit

147.6471
oregressive Factors
1 + 0.97806 B**(1) - 0.01765 B**(2)
ving Average Factors

1 + 1.84543 B**(1) + 0.84835 B**(2)
variable profit
145.9333
145.2631
145.2262
145.2606
145.2263
145.2605
145.2264
145.2603
145.2265
145.2602
145.2267
145.2600
145.2268
145.2599
145.2269
145.2598
145.2271
145.2596
145.2272
145.2595
145.2273
145.2593
145.2275
145.2592
149.5645
150.0700
150.0335
150.0680
150.0336
150.0678
150.0337
150.0677
150.0339
150.0675
150.0340
150.0674
150.0342
150.0673
150.0343
150.0671
150.0345
150.0670
150.0346
150.0669
150.0348
150.0668
150.0349
150.0666
S08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:44:53 PM
ing and Forecasting
ual Values
S08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:44:55 PM
ARIMA Modeling and Forecasti

Results
Name of Variable = p
Standard Deviation
Autocorrelation Check for White
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
DF
6
12
18
24
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Roo

Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003
Conditional Least Squares Est

Parameter
MU
MA1,1
MA1,2
AR1,1
Estimate
147.6454272
-1.84932457
-0.85253055
-0.99442125
Standard Error
0.1684184278
0.0187400297
0.0167445997
0.0601843981
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
* AIC and SBC do not include log dete
Parameter
MU
MA1,1
MA1,2
AR1,1
MU
1.000
-0.016
-0.039
0.048
Correlations of Parameter Estimate

MA1,1
-0.016
1.000
0.766
0.277
Autocorrelation Check of Residu

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
1.94
6.35
10.34
14.31
DF
3
9
15
21
Pr > ChiSq
0.5842
0.7043
0.7975
0.8558
0.012
0.010
-0.073
-0.077
Model for variable pr

Estimated Mean
Autoregressive Facto
Factor 1:
Moving Average Fact

Factor 1:
Obs
101
102
Forecast
147.7437
147.6630

Std Error
0.9216
1.2125
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
147.6280
147.6628
147.6282
147.6626
147.6284
147.6624
147.6285
147.6622
147.6287
147.6620
147.6289
147.6618
147.6291
147.6617
147.6293
147.6615
147.6295
147.6613
147.6296
147.6611
147.6298
147.6609
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2125
1.2126
1.2126
1.2126
1.2126
1.2126
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,Ma
ARIMA Modeling and Forecasti

Actual Values
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,Ma

Results
147.5931
1.194114
100
relation Check for White Noise

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
Pr > F
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
ed Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests

Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073
ditional Least Squares Estimation

t Value
876.66
-98.68
-50.91
-16.52
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
Lag
0
1
2
1
294.4672
0.849405
0.921632
271.3835
281.8042
100
BC do not include log determinant.
ns of Parameter Estimates
MA1,2
-0.039
0.766
1.000
-0.374
AR1,1
0.048
0.277
-0.374
1.000
Autocorrelations
-0.005
-0.082
-0.094
0.059
-0.110
0.063
-0.048
0.110
orrelation Check of Residuals

-0.058
0.040
-0.010
-0.054
0.048
-0.016
-0.039
-0.019
0.020
0.161
-0.122
-0.077

147.6454
1 + 0.99442 B**(1)
1 + 1.84932 B**(1) + 0.85253 B**(2)

145.9373
145.2865
149.5500
150.0395
145.2515
145.2863
145.2517
145.2861
145.2518
145.2859
145.2520
145.2857
145.2522
145.2855
145.2524
145.2853
145.2526
145.2851
145.2527
145.2849
145.2529
145.2847
145.2531
145.2846
145.2533
145.2844
150.0045
150.0393
150.0047
150.0391
150.0049
150.0389
150.0051
150.0387
150.0053
150.0386
150.0055
150.0384
150.0056
150.0382
150.0058
150.0380
150.0060
150.0379
150.0062
150.0377
150.0064
150.0375
, X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:42:24 PM

Actual Values
, X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:42:27 PM

Results
Standard Deviation
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
DF
6
12
18
24
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
Auto
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110
Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003

Parameter
MU
MA1,1
AR1,1
Estimate
147.6349751
-0.82493576
0.037771047
Standard Error
0.1714262765
0.0688827456
0.1215065145
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
Parameter
MU
MA1,1
AR1,1

MU
1.000
-0.019
0.027
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
1.81
6.76
10.52
14.47
DF
4
10
16
22
Pr > ChiSq
0.7711
0.7482
0.8383
0.8838
Auto
0.001
0.009
-0.082
-0.088

Estimated Mean
Factor 1:
Factor 1:
Obs
101
102
103
104
Forecast
147.8593
147.6434
147.6353
147.6350

Std Error
0.9185
1.2130
1.2134
1.2134
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
1.2134
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015

Actual Values
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015
ng and Forecasting
esults
of Variable = profit
147.5931
1.194114
100
Check for White Noise

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
Pr > F
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
y-Fuller Unit Root Tests

Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073
ast Squares Estimation

t Value
861.22
-11.98
0.31
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
0.7566
Lag
0
1
1
142.0586
0.843582
0.918467
269.732
277.5475
100
include log determinant.
of Parameter Estimates
MA1,1
-0.019
1.000
0.548
AR1,1
0.027
0.548
1.000
Autocorrelations
-0.020
-0.084
-0.085
0.069
-0.100
0.063
-0.053
0.101
Check of Residuals
-0.061
0.043
0.002
-0.049
0.051
-0.028
-0.046
-0.025
0.020
0.172
-0.110
-0.070
el for variable profit

147.635
regressive Factors
1 - 0.03777 B**(1)
ng Average Factors
1 + 0.82494 B**(1)
ariable profit
146.0591
149.6595
145.2660
150.0209
145.2571
150.0135
145.2568
150.0132
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
145.2568
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
150.0132
08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:37:02 PM
ng and Forecasting
al Values
08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:37:04 PM
ARIMA Modeling and Forecastin

Results
Name of Variable = pro

Standard Deviation
Autocorrelation Check for White N

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
DF
6
12
18
24
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root

Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003
Conditional Least Squares Estim

Parameter
MU
MA1,1
AR1,1
AR1,2
Estimate
147.6333754
-0.81154216
0.05188053
-0.03552592
Standard Error
0.1675885745
0.0869018003
0.1325453978
0.1247004617
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
Parameter
MU
MA1,1
AR1,1
AR1,2
MU
1.000
-0.036
0.009
0.037

MA1,1
-0.036
1.000
0.638
-0.568

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
1.65
6.69
10.45
14.23
DF
3
9
15
21
Pr > ChiSq
0.6482
0.6690
0.7902
0.8594
-0.003
0.017
-0.084
-0.086
Model for variable pro

Estimated Mean
Autoregressive Facto
Factor 1:
Moving Average Facto

Factor 1:
Obs
101
102
Forecast
147.8264
147.6057

Std Error
0.9228
1.2192
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
147.6251
147.6339
147.6337
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
147.6334
1.2193
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
1.2196
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,Mar

Actual Values
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,Mar

Results
147.5931
1.194114
100
elation Check for White Noise

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
Pr > F
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010

Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073
tional Least Squares Estimation

t Value
880.93
-9.34
0.39
-0.28
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
0.6964
0.7763
Lag
0
1
1
2
145.2189
0.851646
0.922847
271.6471
282.0678
100
C do not include log determinant.
ns of Parameter Estimates
AR1,1
0.009
0.638
1.000
-0.391
AR1,2
0.037
-0.568
-0.391
1.000
Autocorrelations
0.002
-0.087
-0.082
0.064
-0.088
0.067
-0.055
0.099
rrelation Check of Residuals

-0.069
0.042
-0.006
-0.051
0.054
-0.029
-0.049
-0.018
0.010
0.171
-0.109
-0.071

147.6334
1 - 0.05188 B**(1) + 0.03553 B**(2)
1 + 0.81154 B**(1)

146.0176
145.2161
149.6351
149.9954
145.2354
145.2436
145.2433
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
145.2430
150.0148
150.0243
150.0241
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
150.0237
X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:35:12 PM

Actual Values

Results
Standard Deviation
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
DF
6
12
18
24
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Auto
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110

Rho
Pr < Rho
0.0044
0.6819
0.0146
0.6842
0.0058
0.6822
-49.4012
0.0009
-115.7196
0.0001
-69.5090
0.0009
-50.7474
0.0003
-120.3124
0.0001
-75.2395
0.0003

Parameter
MU
MA1,1
Estimate
147.6315739
-0.83543743
Standard Error
0.1653220585
0.0556582891
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
Parameter
MU
MA1,1
Correlations of Parameter
Estimates
MU
1.000
-0.040
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
1.96
6.61
10.59
14.53
DF
5
11
17
23
Pr > ChiSq
0.8547
0.8294
0.8772
0.9107
Auto
0.027
0.003
-0.081
-0.090

Estimated Mean
Factor 1:
Obs
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
Forecast
147.8504
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316

Std Error
0.9142
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
147.6316
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
1.1913
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 a

Actual Values
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 a
g and Forecasting
esults
of Variable = profit
147.5931
1.194114
100
heck for White Noise

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
Pr > F
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
y-Fuller Unit Root Tests

Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073
ast Squares Estimation

t Value
892.99
-15.01
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
Lag
0
1
-0.109
0.058
-0.058
0.100
-0.057
0.046
0.000
-0.045
147.6316
0.835829
0.914237
267.8343
273.0447
100
include log determinant.
of Parameter
ates
MA1,1
-0.040
1.000
Check of Residuals
Autocorrelations
-0.014
-0.078
-0.086
0.070
0.044
-0.023
-0.052
-0.030
0.026
0.169
-0.113
-0.068
l for variable profit

147.6316
ng Average Factors
1 + 0.83544 B**(1)
ariable profit
146.0585
149.6423
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
149.9665
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
145.2967
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
149.9665
08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:32:53 PM
g and Forecasting
al Values
08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:32:56 PM

Results

Standard Deviation

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
DF
6
12
18
24
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110
Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003

Parameter
MU
MA1,1
MA1,2
Estimate
147.6350043
-0.86427403
-0.03339746
Standard Error
0.1715008075
0.1015832692
0.101009242
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
* AIC and SBC do not include log deter
Parameter
MU
MA1,1
MA1,2
Correlations of Parameter Est

MU
1.000
-0.042
-0.024
Autocorrelation Check of Residua

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
1.80
6.77
10.51
14.46
DF
4
10
16
22
Pr > ChiSq
0.7733
0.7474
0.8385
0.8842
-0.001
0.009
-0.082
-0.088
Model for variable profi

Estimated Mean
Moving Average Facto

Factor 1:
Obs
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
Forecast
147.8582
147.6424
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350

Std Error
0.9184
1.2139
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
147.6350
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
1.2143
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,Marc

Actual Values
Modeling and Forecasting

Results
147.5931
1.194114
100

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
Pr > F
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
d Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests

Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073

t Value
860.84
-8.51
-0.33
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
0.7416
Lag
0
1
2
147.635
0.843531
0.918439
269.7259
277.5414
100
relations of Parameter Estimates

MA1,1
-0.042
1.000
0.835
MA1,2
-0.024
0.835
1.000
Autocorrelations
-0.019
-0.085
-0.085
0.069
-0.099
0.063
-0.053
0.101

-0.062
0.042
0.002
-0.049
0.051
-0.028
-0.046
-0.025
0.019
0.172
-0.110
-0.070

147.635
1 + 0.86427 B**(1) + 0.0334 B**(2)
sts for variable profit

146.0581
145.2631
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
149.6583
150.0216
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
145.2550
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
150.0150
Modeling and Forecasting

Actual Values
ARIMA Modeling and Fo

Results
Name of Varia
Standard Deviation
Autocorrelation Check for

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
DF
6
12
18
24
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110
Augmented Dickey-Fuller U
Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003
Conditional Least Squa

Parameter
MU
AR1,1
AR1,2
AR1,3
Estimate
147.6182724
0.764403473
-0.5124363
0.15741072
Standard Error
0.1607827955
0.1013707066
0.1164186417
0.1021971227
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
* AIC and SBC do not include
Parameter
MU
AR1,1
AR1,2
AR1,3
MU
1.000
0.034
-0.008
0.047
Correlations of Parameter E
AR1,1
0.034
1.000
-0.607
0.410
Autocorrelation Check o
To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
4.97
12.46
16.22
20.46
DF
3
9
15
21
Pr > ChiSq
0.1741
0.1885
0.3675
0.4926
0.021
0.013
-0.068
-0.096
Model for var

Estimated Mean
Autoregressiv
Factor 1:
Obs
101
102
103
104
105
Forecast
148.1363
147.6246
147.5269
147.6267
147.6725
Forecasts for variable p

Std Error
0.9555
1.2026
1.2046
1.2167
1.2178
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
147.6411
147.6092
147.6082
147.6188
147.6224
147.6196
147.6172
147.6175
147.6184
147.6186
147.6183
147.6182
147.6182
147.6183
147.6183
147.6183
147.6183
147.6183
147.6183
1.2192
1.2201
1.2201
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
1.2202
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on
ARIMA Modeling and Fo
Actual Values
Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on

Results
147.5931
1.194114
100

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
ugmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71

t Value
918.12
7.54
-4.40
1.54
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.1268
Lag
0
1
2
3
87.18661
0.912888
0.955452
278.5913
289.012
100
C and SBC do not include log determinant.
orrelations of Parameter Estimates

AR1,2
-0.008
-0.607
1.000
-0.603
AR1,3
0.047
0.410
-0.603
1.000
-0.076
-0.105
-0.111
0.068
0.125
0.120
-0.020
0.078

Autocorrelations
-0.157
0.027
-0.051
-0.068

147.6183
1 - 0.7644 B**(1) + 0.51244 B**(2) - 0.15741 B**(3)

146.2637
145.2676
145.1660
145.2420
145.2857
150.0090
149.9817
149.8878
150.0114
150.0594
145.2514
145.2179
145.2169
145.2273
145.2309
145.2280
145.2257
145.2259
145.2268
145.2271
145.2268
145.2266
145.2267
145.2267
145.2267
145.2267
145.2267
145.2267
145.2267
150.0307
150.0005
149.9995
150.0103
150.0139
150.0111
150.0088
150.0090
150.0099
150.0102
150.0099
150.0097
150.0098
150.0098
150.0099
150.0098
150.0098
150.0098
150.0098
('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:28:46 PM

Actual Values
('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:28:49 PM
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr > F
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073
0.017
-0.060
-0.048
0.030
0.020
0.189
-0.094
-0.085

Results

Standard Deviation

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
29.11
32.24
42.37
47.84
Type
Zero Mean
Single Mean
Trend
DF
6
12
18
24
Lags
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
1
2
Pr > ChiSq
0.0001
0.0013
0.0010
0.0026
Rho
0.0044
0.0146
0.0058
-49.4012
-115.7196
-69.5090
-50.7474
-120.3124
-75.2395
0.497
-0.024
-0.041
-0.110

Pr < Rho
0.6819
0.6842
0.6822
0.0009
0.0001
0.0009
0.0003
0.0001
0.0003

Parameter
MU
AR1,1
AR1,2
Estimate
147.603618
0.700242898
-0.40417889
Standard Error
0.1365954893
0.0931114305
0.0934875102
Constant Estimate
Variance Estimate
Std Error Estimate
AIC
SBC
Number of Residuals
Parameter
MU
AR1,1
AR1,2
Correlations of Parameter Es
MU
1.000
0.005
0.021

To Lag
6
12
18
24
Chi-Square
5.74
12.66
17.99
22.67
DF
4
10
16
22
Pr > ChiSq
0.2191
0.2434
0.3247
0.4207
0.062
-0.016
-0.058
-0.119
Model for variable pro

Estimated Mean
Autoregressive Factor
Factor 1:
Obs
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
Forecast
147.9467
147.4035
147.3248
147.4893
147.6362
147.6727
147.6388

Std Error
0.9622
1.1746
1.1775
1.1969
1.2108
1.2116
1.2124
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
147.6003
147.5871
147.5934
147.6031
147.6074
147.6065
147.6041
147.6028
147.6029
147.6034
147.6038
147.6038
147.6037
147.6036
147.6036
147.6036
147.6036
1.2134
1.2135
1.2135
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136
1.2136

Actual Values

Results
147.5931
1.194114
100

Autocorrelations
-0.056
-0.046
-0.154
0.074
-0.144
0.038
-0.101
0.111
-0.093
0.060
-0.056
-0.008
0.024
0.081
-0.107
-0.084
Pr < Tau
0.6982
0.7341
0.7165
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0004
Pr > F
15.95
28.32
11.85
16.48
29.09
12.71
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010
0.0010

Tau
0.05
0.17
0.11
-5.65
-7.52
-4.87
-5.74
-7.63
-5.03
0.044
0.115
-0.181
-0.073

t Value
1080.59
7.52
-4.32
Approx
Pr > |t|
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
Lag
0
1
2
103.9035
0.925744
0.962156
279.0261
286.8416
100
relations of Parameter Estimates

AR1,1
0.005
1.000
-0.495
AR1,2
0.021
-0.495
1.000
Autocorrelations
-0.115
-0.088
-0.142
0.065
0.183
0.127
-0.034
0.069

-0.055
0.015
-0.036
-0.068
0.022
-0.065
-0.053
0.002
0.026
0.179
-0.124
-0.092

147.6036
1 - 0.70024 B**(1) + 0.40418 B**(2)

146.0609
145.1013
145.0169
145.1435
145.2630
145.2980
145.2625
149.8325
149.7057
149.6327
149.8351
150.0094
150.0473
150.0150
145.2222
145.2088
145.2150
145.2246
145.2289
145.2279
145.2255
145.2242
145.2243
145.2249
145.2252
145.2253
145.2251
145.2250
145.2250
145.2250
145.2251
149.9785
149.9654
149.9718
149.9816
149.9860
149.9850
149.9826
149.9813
149.9814
149.9820
149.9823
149.9824
149.9822
149.9821
149.9821
149.9822
149.9822

Actual Values

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time

Warning: Estimates may not have converged.

* AIC and SBC do n

Warning: Observation 60 is out of order according to the ID variable TIME.

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_D

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_D

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting

mates is unstable. The iteration process has been terminated.

ARIMA Estimation Optimization Summary

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant.

Correlations of Parameter Estimates

Model for variable profit

ding to the ID variable TIME.

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:47:02 PM

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:47:05 PM

A Modeling and Forecasting

relation Check for White Noise

ted Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests

MA Estimation Optimization Summary

ditional Least Squares Estimation

BC do not include log determinant.

elations of Parameter Estimates

orrelation Check of Residuals

Model for variable profit

asts for variable profit

', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:47:02 PM

A Modeling and Forecasting

', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:47:05 PM

ARIMA Modeling and

Warning: Estimates may not have converged.

* AIC and SBC do not includ

Warning: Observation 60 is out of order according to the ID variable TIME.

Forecasts for variabl

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2)

ARIMA Modeling and

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2)

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting

ARIMA Estimation Optimization Summary

* AIC and SBC do not include log determinant.

Correlations of Parameter Estimates

Model for variable profit

ding to the ID variable TIME.

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:44:53 PM

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting

Generated by SAS ('Local', X64_DS08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:44:55 PM

ing and Forecasting

Check for White Noise

ey-Fuller Unit Root Tests

The iteration process has been terminated.

ation Optimization Summary

east Squares Estimation

ot include log determinant.

del for variable profit

ving Average Factors

S08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:44:53 PM

ing and Forecasting

S08R2) on 23,March,2015 at 8:44:55 PM

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasti

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Roo

Conditional Least Squares Est

* AIC and SBC do not include log dete

Correlations of Parameter Estimate