Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Appendix F
Trends and disruptions: Full report
Eckhard Strmer, Cornelius Patscha, Jessica Prendergast, Cornelia Daheim
Z_punkt The Foresight Company
Martin Rhisiart
Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation, University of South Wales
www.ukces.org.uk/thefutureofwork
February 2014
Table of Contents
1 Introduction..................................................................................................... 5
2 Trends shaping future of UK jobs and skills over the long-term ............... 8
2.1
Introduction .................................................................................................................. 8
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 59
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
De-Globalisation ........................................................................................................ 77
3.8
3.9
4 Bibliography.................................................................................................. 89
iii
Table of Graphs
Figure 2.1: Trends driving the future of UK jobs and skills ........................................................ 9
Table 3.1: Trend and Disruption Relationship ............................................................................ 59
Figure 3.1: Disruptions with the potential to impact upon future jobs and skills in the UK . 60
iv
1 Introduction
The Future of Work research commissioned by The UK Commission for Employment and
Skills (UKCES) looks ahead to the labour market of 2030. It analyses stable trends that are
already shaping the future of UK jobs and skills and identifies the plausible disruptions to
these trends. It plots four anticipated scenarios of what the UKs work landscape might look
like in 2030, and importantly, the skills that will be required under these conditions.
The full report of the study with the scenarios and the key findings report are available at
www.ukces.org.uk/thefutureofwork
This report is one output of The Future of Work study. It sets out the 13 trends identified by
the research as the most influential and plausible impacting the jobs and skills landscape in
the UK until 2030. It also provides detail on the ten key disruptions selected, that if they were
to occur, may lead to abrupt changes that are more difficult to foresee.
What will the UKs future job landscape look in 2030? Which skills will be needed to drive
the competitiveness of UK businesses and to promote the employability of the UKs
working age population?
It is not possible to predict the future. We live in a dynamic and turbulent world where
changes occur rapidly and on a continual basis. However, it is important to take the longterm perspective into account. For instance, employers need to think about new
strategies and new business models to prepare themselves for tomorrows markets.
Long-term developments have to be taken into account, especially when investing in
innovation. Businesses increasingly require an internationally competitive skills base to
be successful.
Skills development is an important long-term issue. Education and training providers
need to be aware of the potential future requirements of the labour market in order to
ensure that they offer individuals the skills that will be required in the future. An
individuals decision on the skill level they aim to achieve and their subject specialisation
determines, to a certain degree, their career pipeline throughout their working lives.
There are many local and global trends that are already visible today that point towards
forthcoming changes in business and society. These will have significant impact on UK
jobs and skills over the long-term. These include:
Emerging economies acquiring shares in global production chains;
Demographic change and migration changing the face of the workforce;
For the trend selection, the literature base is supplemented by Z_punkt Megatrends Update, a compilation of the twenty
most important megatrends that are on the strategic radar of many international companies; as well as the Z_punkt
Trendradar 2020, which includes descriptions of more than 170 trends. For the disruption selection, the literature is
complemented by the iKnow database WiWe Bank1 with more than 800 emerging issues, wild cards and weak signals.
2
A more detailed analysis of the impacts on selected sectors and occupations can be found in the full evidence report
available www.ukces.org.uk/thefutureofwork
The following two sections present the trends and disruptions. They are documented by
recent evidence, which is then used to extrapolate their expected future development.
Also included is a list of their underlying drivers, and their implications for UK jobs and
skills. As jobs and skills are strongly interconnected, these implications are also strongly
interlinked.
The trends are evidence based, referenced by the broad literature that was initially
scanned, while additional sources have also been included. In addition, the insights from
key informant interviews are included, particularly where interviewees provided specific
insights on the implications for jobs and skills in the UK. To guarantee anonymity, no
references were added to the insights from the key informant interviews3.
If there are no references in the implications section of the trends and disruptions the insights come particularly from key
informant interviews.
Introduction
10
Digitalisation of production
11
12
2.2
Demographic Change
The UKs population and labour force are experiencing a marked aging
Description
process as the baby boom generation reaches state pension age and
older people participate in the labour market for longer. While, as in
other industrialised nations, the population and workforce are aging,
migration is helping to remedy skill shortages.
Recent
developments
Higher education participation rate of the 17-30 year old rose from 43 per cent in 2006/07 to 49 per cent in 20011/12 (BIS
2013). However, there is also a great youth unemployment problem (Crowley et al., 2013), with about a million 16-24 year
old unemployed or 21.4 per cent, in the second quarter of 2013.
5
A8 countries commonly refer to the eight Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in 2004, (Czech
Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia), with low per capita incomes comparative to
existing EU members.
13
14
15
Implications for It is possible that with an increase of the retirement age to 70 the
Skills
proportion of the lower qualified would also rise until 2020, as on
average younger people are more highly qualified than the older
population. However in the longer term this effect will abate, due to a
continuous improvement in qualification levels across all age groups
(Bosworth, 2012).
As people live and work longer, they will require lifelong learning and
training. Both employers and individuals will be required to update,
upgrade, and learn new skills and competencies as job requirements
change over time.
Skills for leading multi-generational workforces and collaboration
within multi-generational groups will become an important success
factor. This includes cross-generational skills learning. Further, with
technological changes occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, the
acquisition of new skills will become routinely necessary in the worklife of every employee. In particular, there will be a need to learn
complete new skill sets for radical new technologies, which will also
require new learning approaches. Thereby placing an onus on the
ability to learn as a cognitive skill.
Consideration and emphasis may need to be placed on ensuring the
availability of age appropriate work, including training for new tasks,
managing job transitions and leadership challenges.
As high-skilled workers from the baby-boomer generation reach
retirement age it is likely to lead to large skill gaps in many
occupations,
especially
in
the
STEM
(science,
technology,
16
2.3
Growing Diversity
As women around the world continue to seek equal rights within
Description
Recent
developments
in
company
leadership
positions,
given
equal
Wales. While in London, 37 per cent of the population are foreignborn, across the whole of England and Wales 13 per cent are foreignborn, and in the northeast this figure is a mere 5 per cent (ONS,
2012d). In the work place the number of foreign-born people of
working age in 2011 was 6 million about 20 per cent of all employed
people (a large increase from 2.9 million in 1993; Rienzo, 2012).
Expected future An increasing number of women will enter the workforce over the
developments
coming two decades 56 per cent of the net increase in jobs between
2010 and 2020 are expected to be filled by women (Wilson et al.,
2012), a tendency which will maintain until 2030. As woman continue
to enrol and complete further education in higher numbers in 20102011
female
students
made-up
55
per
cent
of
full-time
Consequently,
women
are
projected
to
secure
18
19
Needs, 2013). The growing need for language, cultural and religious
knowledge is becoming evident, as well as the need for strong
leadership support for diversity.
There is a growing need to recognise and understand foreign
qualifications (certificates, diplomas, degrees) and the competencies
they signal, as well as to provide UK-specific training courses to cover
any knowledge gaps.
20
2.4
Income uncertainty
Description
Recent
developments
21
While there was relatively robust growth at the bottom of the income
distribution, the growth is being attributed to increases in benefits and
tax credits seen to compensate some of the hard hitting impacts of the
recession (Jin et al., 2011). Further, relative to other leading
economies, the UK has a high proportion of workers (21.6 per cent) in
low-wage jobs, second only to the U.S. (CIPD, 2013a).
The UK has experienced a weakening of collective bargaining a
strong means to reduce in-work poverty and income inequality (Coats,
2013) over recent decades as well as seeing diminishing coverage
of collective agreements. Since 1996 the proportion of all employees
covered by a collective agreement has dropped from 36 per cent to 31
per cent (Lansley and Reed, 2013).
Expected future
developments
Drivers
Globalisation
2.0
with
increasing
competition
with
emerging
economies
Shareholder value driven business strategies
Rise in flexible and temporary working conditions
Implications for
As the power balance shifts more towards employers, who also face
22
Jobs
Implications for
Skills
23
2.5
Description
Recent
developments
Drivers
Generation Y are commonly referred to as those people born between 1982 and 2000.
25
Implications for
Skills
26
2.6
Description
Recent
developments
increased onsite training has seen the associated rise in new forms
of, and approaches to, learning.
Expected future
developments
workers
will
become
increasingly
necessary,
with
28
2013).
Drivers
Implications for
Jobs
Implications for
Skills
The need to identify and build new skills for the workplaces of the
future is evident. CEB (2013) identify the following ten skills as the
most necessary for success in the changing work environment:
Prioritisation of work, teamwork, organisational awareness, problem
solving, self-awareness, proactivity, influence, decision making,
learning agility and technical expertise. Or in short, the key qualities
for success in the future workplace will be: the ability to quickly adapt
to changes in the working environment, to excel in collaborative
working modes and strong analytical skills to assess problems and
make decisions.
With the rise in project based skill requirements and as people change
jobs more frequently and thus need a varied portfolio of skills, higher
education providers will increasingly need to provide new methods of
cross-crediting, accumulation and transfer of skill units. Online
learning works well to train IT skills that need to be updated regularly
to follow the fast pace of IT upgrades (e-skills UK, 2009). But online
learning typically lacks the provision of the soft skills necessary for
individuals to be presentable in the workplace. Soft skills which are
critical for project work and collaboration will need to be developed
through both innovative and traditional delivery methods.
29
2.7
Description
between
nanotechnology,
biotechnology,
information
Over the past decades, innovation in the natural sciences has been
increasingly generated through the convergence of single disciplines
into interdisciplinary fields of research and development (R&D). With
information technology as an enabling technology, advances in a
variety of technology fields will be of key importance in the 21st
century. Among them the most prominent will be biotechnology and
the life sciences, as well as cognitive sciences, material sciences and
nanotechnology (Burd, 2013; EC, 2011; Lee and Olson, 2010). An
example for a product stemming from this convergence process is
DNA sequencing with its rapidly declining cost curve (NHGRI, 2013).
Although the strong financial sector may be the reason for relatively
low innovation intensity, the UK is still well positioned in R&D among
the EU member countries. It holds a strategic view in regard to
innovation, as well as a developed mix of policy instruments. The UK
leads the debate and practice in many fields, including procurement of
innovation, tax incentives for R&D, and university knowledge
exchange income (EC, 2013b).
The UK occupies a particularly strong position in the life sciences and
biotechnology sectors (BIA, 2012b). It has a number of globally
leading universities, among them 4 of the top 10 universities in the
world and 19 of the top 100 universities7 (QS, 2012). In the UK, the
life science industry generates an annual turnover of over 50bn8 and
employs 167,500 people in over 4,500 companies (BIS, 2013). One of
Europes leading biotech clusters is found in the area around
Cambridge (Aschoff et al., 2010). Further, UK industry and
government have also invested heavily in the research and
development of nanotechnology (KTN, 2010).
Expected future
developments
The ranking is comprehensive over all faculties and is based on the criteria academic and employer reputation, facultystudent ratio, and internationality (QS, 2012).
8
30
and
development
activities
are
becoming
more
Implications for
Jobs
There will be strong demand for high skilled labour for research and
development, especially professional scientists and engineers due to
rapid
technological
change,
and
innovation,
research
and
31
the
relevance
of
complicated
scientific
findings
to
stakeholders.
As investments in R&D continue there will be increasing demand for
security specialists to protect generated intellectual property.
With successful treatment of widespread diseases based on
breakthroughs in biotechnology, workforce reduction based on early
retirement due to chronic diseases may decrease.
Implications for
Skills
32
33
2.8
Digitalisation of Production
Description
Recent
developments
, the digitalisation of
Additive manufacturing techniques are the industrial application of 3D printing. It is a layer-by-layer production process of
three-dimensional objects on the basis of digital construction plans.
34
Drivers
Implications for
Jobs
35
With continuing automation, the core value that labour can add is not
in the processes that can be automated, but in non-routine processes,
in uniquely human, analytical or interactive contributions that result in
discovery, innovation, teaming, leading, selling and learning (Austin,
2010). The jobs that technology will not easily replace are those
requiring people to think, communicate, organise and decide
(Cedefop, 2013). Examples for such jobs range from the creative
engineer or designer to managerial positions.
Advanced manufacturing, or the industries and businesses which use
a high level of design or scientific skills to produce innovative and
technologically complex products and processes, will require
employees to possess high value added manufacturing skills, such as
composites manufacture and development, plastic electronics and
nanotechnology (Semta, 2010). Plastic electronics will need skills in
the fields of chemistry, physics, material science, electronic,
engineering together with process engineering and semiconductor,
display or printing industries. Skill requirements within the composite
workforce change over time: from the current R&D related skills of
design engineers to multi-skilled craft and technician level workers
with both CNC and composite experience for more automated
processes in the future (Feloy and DSouza, 2013).
In a semi-autonomous manufacturing environment, the remaining
shop floor workers will have more responsibilities that require control,
maintenance and problem-solving skills. Also, with small numbers of
employees on the shop floor and flat hierarchies, communication skills
will become increasingly important. This is true for both production
workers and management, and will need to be combined with a
36
37
2.9
Description
Recent
developments
Expected future
developments
Implications for
Jobs
10
airbnb provides a platform for collective consumption and sharing of rooms and flats, thus challenging traditional
business models in the tourism sector.
39
Global data networks have not only connected the worlds information
but they are also generating global labour markets for a variety of
jobs, such as programming or graphic design, for example, where a
geographically defined presence is not necessary and where results
delivery can be made electronically. In these jobs, international
competition is increasing the pressure to raise productivity, especially
in developed countries with already relatively high wages. ICT also
facilitates hyper specialisation, whereby routine elements of high-level
jobs are outsourced, thereby allowing a higher productivity of highlevel jobs.
As the rapidly growing and evolving ICT sector continues to transform
the economy, the demand for ICT specialists is likely to grow within
companies but also in business consulting services specialised in the
implementation of
ICT
in business processes.
According
to
40
The rapid development of the ICT sector and the diffusion of ICT into
virtually every corner of the economy requires a high proportion of
workers to possess ICT skills (Hogarth et al., 2010). ICT skills
requirements continue to rise in the UK (SES, 2012), on the European
level (EUSP, 2012), as well as around the world. Programming or
more generally IT skills is becoming the new literacy (Prensky,
2013). Thus, narrowing the IT skills gap is also a prerequisite for a
more equal distribution of productivity gained through ICT.
Besides programmers, software development professionals, data
security experts, web design and web development professionals
represent the crucial skills (EUSP, 2012); Big Data skills - the ability to
interpret the huge amount of data collected around the world, and
around the clock, - are of crucial importance (McKinsey, 2011a).
Companies need to develop new skills to turn data into business.
Investments are needed in a wide range of staff skills, from maths and
statistics to business operations and to visual design and reporting
(Avanade, 2012). The growing demand for simulation and the
increased use of, for example, bioinformatics is also increasing the
demand for people with programming skills and a general
understanding of a specialised field of study (Hogarth et al., 2010).
Due to the constant development of information technology,
individuals must constantly update their knowledge and skills to
remain attractive to the labour market. This is not only the case for
high skilled labour in technology-driven sectors, but for the general
population increased levels of digital competence and the ability to
continually adapt and learn new competences are increasingly
becoming a requirement (EUPS, 2013).
The skill bias is evident in fields where computer technology
complements workers who perform non-routine tasks that require
flexibility, creativity, analytical and problem solving capabilities and
complex communications; time previously spent on routine tasks can
be directed towards other tasks. This changes the skills and capability
profiles required within many occupations and raise the demand for
41
42
Recent
developments
The period between the 1980s and 2008, called the Great
Moderation in Western economic history, was characterised by
relatively mild business cycle volatility in several developed
economies accompanied by relatively low inflation and reliable fiscal,
monetary, and economic policy decisions. The global financial crisis
can arguably be seen as marking the end this period (Aizenman et al.,
2010; den Haan and Sterk, 2011). The increased level of economic
uncertainty has contributed to the UKs slow economic recovery
(Haddow et al., 2013).
Expectations for future growth, of both individual and societal
prosperity, have been based on the relatively high economic growth of
the past. However, on average growth rates have been weakening
over time in developed economies (World Bank, 2012). Moreover, the
UK economy is now mostly de-industrialised with manufacturing
accounting for a mere 9 per cent of GDP, leaving the economy
especially vulnerable to economic shocks in the services sector
(CIPD, 2013a).
Expected future
developments
The still visible aftermath of the global financial crisis, including the
still smouldering crisis in the Euro-zone, will for the foreseeable future
continue to feed the uncertainty in the economy and draw out the
recovery process of the UK economy (Haddow, 2013; IMF, 2013a;
Wilson and Homenidou, 2012).
Growing levels of economic and financial complexity11 are necessary
in order to achieve the degree of innovation that is needed for
continuous economic growth in developed economies (Cowen, 2011;
Hausmann et al., 2013). However, this will also lead to a higher risk of
11
Technological innovation often requires considerable investment of financial resources and a variety of rare materials
and intermediate products. To increase the options for investments and financing, increasingly complex financial tools are
developed that create unclear interlinkages between the real economy and the financial sector. Also, supply chains grow in
length and are spread out all over the world so that when looking upstream it is often unclear how many and which
suppliers are present in the supply chain.
43
Implications for
Jobs
44
12
Micropreneurs are entrepreneurs starting and managing a business that will very likely remain small, but gives them the
liberty to follow their interests and/or be their own masters.
45
Recent
developments
Expected future
developments
Drivers
46
Implications for
Skills
47
48
network orchestrators. The skills and resources they can connect to,
through activities like crowdsourcing, become more important than the
skills and resources they own. Collaboration in value creation networks
is enabled by the virtualisation of business processes, fuelled by the
rise of the digital economy.
Recent
developments
Fast
technological progress
Implications for
Jobs
13
This will not affect all companies in the same way, but at the least, many functions of a firm will be shifted to the network
and need to be orchestrated.
50
Products, and production itself, create ever fewer added values for a
company. Instead, orchestrating the partnership network by managing
communication and organising knowledge networks are the key skills
for
the
future.
Interdisciplinary
competences,
i.e.
profound
51
52
Recent
developments
Expected future
developments
53
share should reach 30 per cent to 45 per cent share (CCC, 2011).
By 2030, global resource extraction will increase to about 100 Gt, and
could increase further up to 140bn tons in 2050 (Fischer-Kowalski et
al., 2011; SERI, 2009).
Globally, there is a risk of food shortages over the next decade due to
rising population and climate change impacts. An Oxfam study
predicts a climate change induced increase of rice, wheat and maize
prices of between 110 per cent and 180 per cent between 2010 and
2030 (Carty, 2012).
If current trends were allowed to continue, water scarcity will increase.
In a dry year in the 2020s the gap between water supply and demand
in the UK could be nearly as large as the total current agricultural
abstraction of 120bn litres per year (CCC, 2013). Those areas already
under water stress in England and Wales will potentially see
population growth of 40 per cent between 2008 and 2033 (EA, 2011).
The future development of biodiversity and ecosystem services is
strongly dependent on external factors. Business as usual will
unequivocally lead to the further degradation of ecosystem services.
Drivers
Climate change
Global economic growth and associated growing energy demand
Increasing international competition and protectionist tendencies
Diffusion of resource-intensive lifestyles and diets
Growing population in the UK
Implications for
Jobs
generating
jobs,
particularly
in
manufacturing
and
engineering.
Implications for
Skills
54
55
Recent
developments
After the deficit years of the early 1990s, the UK budget deficit had
remained below 4 per cent since 1996. Yet at the onset of the
financial crisis in late 2007, the UK budget deficit (excluding Royal
Mail and AFP transfers) rose sharply to 157bn, corresponding to 11
per cent of GDP in the fiscal year 2009-10. In the fiscal years 2011-12
and 2012-13, public deficit amounted to roughly 7.5 per cent (ONS,
2013e).
Since the late 1980s, UK public expenditure (total managed
expenditure, TME) had mainly hovered around or below 40 per cent of
GDP, apart from a short period in the early 1990s when expenditure
temporarily rose to 43 per cent. With the onset of the recent crisis, in
fiscal year 2008-09 TME jumped to 47 per cent, the highest level
since 1984-85 (HM Treasury, 2013).
Recent
government
budgets
(i.e.
since
2010)
have
been
56
Implications for
Jobs
Public funding for measures for the promotion of job creation, and
generally any labour market measures, are hard to implement when
faced with severe budget constraints. There will be fierce competition
for public money and workforce under the different political action
fields.
Potentially raising taxes and/or the devaluation of financial assets
could reduce individuals purchasing power. As a consequence, the
informal labour market, with individuals trying to increase their level of
disposable income, could grow.
Financial consulting could be a profiteer of persistently low interest
rates or rising tax rates. Savings in individual pension funds will need
to rise to counteract potentially decreasing state pension claims.
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, public sector
employment will fall drastically in the future. According to current
estimates, this will lead to around 1 million people needing to search
for new jobs (Emmerson et al., 2013).
57
Implications for
Skills
58
Introduction
Whereas trends lead to more or less clearly foreseeable changes, the impact of
disruptions on the UK labour market, employment and skills in the year 2030 are complex
and hardly calculable. Long-term processes of change are always at the mercy of
uncertainties. New technologies, changing market structures, and innovative employment
models are emerging. Bottlenecks affecting labour markets are not only conceivable but
also probable. In the digital age, knowledge and technology are decidedly fluid.
If disruptions become virulent, they pose a significant hazard for economic markets and
thus for employment. However, for those that recognise the change in due time,
opportunities open up.
Ten disruptions were selected based on their conceptual plausibility to the UK context,
and the severity of their impact on the future of jobs and skills in the UK if they were to
occur. These were selected from a longer list that included possibilities such as climate
change catastrophe, automated healthcare for the elderly and rapid growth in the informal
economy14.
The ten disruptions set out in more detail below would all most probably lead to
significant deviations to business-as-usual as laid out in the trends. Particularly eight
disruptions can be clearly related to seven trends (see table 3.1). Two disruptions touch
upon further topics15.
Trend
Related Disruption
Radical deviation from trend assumptions
Demographic change
Reverse migration
Income uncertainty
Digitalisation of production
Shift to Asia
ICT development and big data
De-globalisation
Disrupted internet developments
14
For example, the emergence of shale gas as a major new source of energy through the use of hydraulic fracturing
(fracking) and other techniques was considered as a disruptive development, in view of its impact on the US economy. This
did not make the final list of disruptions because it was judged that other developments had more potential to impact on UK
jobs and skills in 2030. UK shale gas reserves are believed to be substantial but not game changing, whilst environmental
concerns are likely to limit its exploitation to a greater extent than has been the case in the US.
15
These are Anywhere, Anytime Skills Delivery and Partial Fragmentation of the EU.
59
Scarcity of resources
Figure 3.1: Disruptions with the potential to impact upon future jobs and skills in the UK
60
The disruptions are set out in more detail below. In the recent development section of
each disruption, it is not a long visible development that is documented, but rather weak
signals indicating a potential new development.
The probability of the developments shown in the future development section is much
lower than the corresponding section in the trend descriptions. The future assumptions
shown are those that should, in particular, aid us in imagining the potential of these
disruptions to alter the future UK jobs and skills landscape.
62
3.2
Reverse Migration
Description
Recent
developments
Potential future
developments
63
Implications for
jobs
Implications for
skills
64
potential.
In future, this could lead to a reduced number of eligible candidates
for high-skill jobs, like IT specialists or engineers, leading to a
potential jobs-skills mismatch.
National or company skills retention is becoming more important, as
well as skills acquisition by the lower skilled workforce to fill the gap
left by reverse migrants. Therefore businesses need to make their
workplace as attractive as possible but also be prepared by
undertaking contingency planning.
65
3.3
Description
More people are living their personal values and wanting to realize them
in a meaningful way in the workplace both in high and low skilled
positions. Individuals may increasingly look to select potential
employers based on value priorities, disrupting the traditional
employers market. Hence, organisational cultures are forced to adapt
their corporate values and policies.
Recent
developments
16
The designation Generation Y is used to cover those born between (approx.) 1980 and 2000 that grew up almost
entirely in the digital age, primarily in developed countries. Currently, 12 million people over the age of 18 fall into the
Generation Y age range in the UK (ONS, 2011a).
66
Potential future
developments
Drivers
Implications for
jobs
17
The assumption applied to this disruption, is that the societal and sustainability values are less dependent on the life
cycle phase of employees, but are deeply founded with action guiding employment decisions through an employees whole
life.
67
Implications for
skills
68
3.4
Description
Recent
developments
their
workers
under
zero-hour
contracts,
with
traditional
18
According to a Unite survey in 2013, 22 per cent of workers employed by private businesses had deals that offered little
or no guarantee of work and pay. This could be as many as 5.5 million Britons (Butler, 2013).
69
of
marginal
(self-)
employment.
In
the
EU,
Drivers
Implications for
jobs
19
Own calculation, assuming that three quarters of the workforce are employed in zero-hour contracts in the sectors: health
and social care, retail, transport, accommodation and food service activities, education.
70
up-skilling
would
be
necessary
to
improve
individual
71
3.5
Description
Recent
developments
Potential future
developments
20
72
Implications for
jobs
73
74
3.6
Description
Recent
developments
Potential future
developments
75
Implications for
jobs
A greater role for both AI and robotics as described above would bring
about a further decoupling of productivity from employment, leading to
the loss of medium and high skilled jobs in analysis and management,
with the productivity gains benefitting a small set of entities. Some
productivity gains may be used to improve service quality, leading to
the creation of new jobs created in the area of personal training and
assistance. This could even lead to an upheaval in wage structures,
where e.g. non-replaceable non-routine social jobs may become
much better paid.
In contrast to robots and AI supporting humans in completing tasks,
workers may support the former by handling non-routine manual tasks
in low-wage jobs (e.g. delivering packages, installing domestic
hardware).
The cost advantages offered by AI and robotics in health care could
lead to lower health costs and consequently to a lower tax burden,
increasing consumption and making businesses more competitive.
Jobs in AI programming and robot manufacturing and maintenance
could see strong growth, increasing demand for relevant high-skilled
workers.
Implications for
skills
76
3.7
De-Globalisation
Description
Recent
developments
Potential future
developments
77
Implications for
jobs
The UK has more to lose than most other countries from a revival of
regionalism. A large proportion of jobs depend on exports (17 per
cent of the national economic output). Financial and business
services, e.g. insurance, finance, or consultancy, would be hard hit by
a loss of export markets. Many UK utilities and manufacturing
companies are foreign-owned; a withdrawal of capital would mean the
loss of many jobs.
Migrants bring a net benefit to the UK economy, should they (be
required to) return to their homelands, a net loss of jobs would ensue.
Re-shoring could in combination with regional sourcing lower the
UKs dependency on imports.
Implications for
skills
78
3.8
Description
Recent
developments
The emerging markets are driving global economic growth, i.e. most
new growth is located in these countries. Trade surpluses will enable
these countries to spend more money on developing regional centres,
in particular if the industries in question benefit from large economies
of scale.
Governments in emerging nations are more willing to adapt local laws
(weakening labour laws or environmental legislation) to develop local
centres of excellence, e.g. Chinas special administrative regions
(Ren, 2008). China has also used significant state subsidies to enable
private actors to form industry clusters in which a specific future-tech
sector dominates (e.g. photovoltaic; ASM, 2011; Weiwei and Rui,
2011).
Recently modernised cities in emerging countries often enjoy state-ofthe-art infrastructure superior to that in developed countries, leading
to a concentration of services around these cities.
Asian financial capitals, particularly Shanghai, Hong Kong or
Singapore are challenging the dominance of todays leading financial
centres (e.g. London, New York and Tokyo). Two-thirds of British
investment bankers surveyed in 2012 expect that in 2022 the top
global finance centre will be in Asia, due to a low tax and bank friendly
environment (Jeff, 2012).
New trade corridors are opening between Asia and Africa, Asia and
South America and within Asia, which will re-chart global supply
chains. As trade volumes shift towards emerging markets, centres of
commerce in the emerging markets will replace those in the West
(PwC, 2010b).
Many emerging nations are investing heavily in tertiary education
clusters, which are likely to improve rapidly in the coming decades
and mature into research clusters (PwC, 2010c).
79
Potential future
developments
Drivers
Implications for
jobs
Implications for
skills
80
3.9
Description
Recent
developments
81
targeting
institutions
and
businesses,
occasionally
for
Drivers
Implications for
jobs
The
UKs
broadband
penetration
rate
growth
could
remain
82
The Internet plays a major role in international trade; any reregionalisation would severely hurt UK export-related jobs.
Implications for
skills
83
Recent
developments
84
Drivers
Implications for
jobs
85
86
The United Kingdom may leave the European Union, as may several
peripheral countries. This could result in the emergence of a core
Eurozone single market plus a detached United Kingdom.
Recent
developments
Potential future
developments
Should the inequalities between rich and poor nations persist, one
outcome is a two-tier EU, in which the economically powerful nations
collaborate closely, while the weaker nations become far less
integrated and do not share the others common policies. Here, the
UK would probably withdraw from the inner circle, leaving it without
power in the EUs decision-making, yet still influenced by the results
of the latter in regard to common market regulations, etc. (see
Ditchley, 2012).
Public anti-EU sentiment, both in net contributing nations (refusal to
continue paying into the EU) and recipient nations (refusal to accept a
common policy dominated by the donor nations), could lead to a
fragmented explosion in which member states leave individually after
holding public referenda, a development which the UK would most
likely spearhead.
The Euro crisis could also lead to a much stronger political and
economic integration, based on the recognition that stronger
87
Implications for
jobs
In
the
highly
complex
post-industrial
globalised
world,
Implications for
skills
88
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