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ASEAN Hotel Market
Sentiment Survey
July 2013
July 2013
INTRODUCTION
The Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment
Survey has been designed to provide the hotel
industry with a quick assessment of the future
market outlook. The four-question survey focuses
on the outlook for occupancy, average room rate
and total revenue. In this mid-year survey,
hoteliers have been asked to share their
expectation in respect of market performance for
the coming semester when compared to market
performance in the second half of last year, as
well as provide feedback regarding the impact
continued global economic uncertainties have had
on demand.
SHARE OF RESPONDENTS
BY COUNTRY, JULY 2013
7'"8(9$:%)
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12('3("#)
40,)
5(3(6&'()
++,)
*%#
$%#
!%#
&%#
$%#
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&%#
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("#
"%#
(%#
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('#
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)%#
%#
+35#.)(#
+,-#.)(#
SENTIMENT RANKINGS
BY
COUNTRY
SENTIMENT RANKINGS
SCORE
Feb
2011
Jul
2011
Mar
2012
Jul
2012
Jan
2013
Jul
2013
75
67
49
51
85
59
35
63
28
24
53
76
50
35
27
37
28
37
--
-24
31
30
67
43
8
42
-30
40
46
-12
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
July 2013
-150
-75
0
75
150
July 2013
Occ
ARR
Rev
Avg
Indonesia
-14
30
-7
Vietnam
-15
-45
-45
-35
Thailand
55
-4
50
34
Malaysia
10
27
21
19
Singapore
-9
-60
-48
-39
ASEAN AVERAGE
July 2013
Indonesia,
Singapore
and
Vietnam all recorded negative
scores to this questions at -6, 36 and -60, respectively,
indicating that these markets
still have strong reliance on
the global economy.
IMPACT
OF
FINANCIAL
CRISIS
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
ASEAN
AVERAGE
SCORE
-6
-60
24
11
-36
-1
July 2013
At least 57 percent of
respondents stated that they
expect hotel performance in
all three measures to perform
better or much better in the
second half of the year
Occupancy
Close to 60 percent of hoteliers from these five
countries expected occupancy performance in the
second half of 2013 to be better or much better in
comparison to occupancy performance in the
second half of 2012. However, approximately 16
percent of respondents believed that occupancy
performance will be lower or much lower, and 24
percent of respondents said that occupancy
performance would remain comparable to that in
the second half of last year.
Average Daily Rate
Compared to the sentiment recorded for occupancy,
a higher percentage of respondents at 19 percent
stated that they expected average daily rate in the
second half of 2013 to be lower or much lower than
the second half of 2012. The same number of
respondents at 24 percent believed that the
average daily rate would remain comparable to that
in the second half of 2012, while 57 percent of
respondents said that the average daily rate would
perform better or much better.
Total Revenue
The second half expectations for total revenue were
more polarized than for occupancy and ADR, with a
reduced 15 percent of respondents expecting
performance levels to remain the same. A total of
66 percent of respondents expected total revenue
to increase in the second half of 2013, while 19
percent of respondents stated that the revenue
performance would be worse or much worse.
July 2013
100%
90%
80%
+15% +
70%
+10% to +15%
+5% to +10%
60%
0% to +5%
50%
0%
0% to -5%
40%
-5% to -10%
30%
-10% to -15%
20%
-15% +
10%
0%
Occ
ADR
Rev
Avg
33
-40
41
41
-10
28
Occupancy
Overall, 67 percent of hoteliers expected occupancy
performance at their hotels in the second half of
2013 to be better than occupancy performance in
the same period last year. Close to 59 percent of
the total number of respondents indicated that they
expected occupancy to grow up to 10 percent in the
second half of the year.
Approximately 24 percent of the hoteliers indicated
that they expected occupancy to decline, with 21
percent of the respondents expecting the decline to
be up to 10 percent.
Average Daily Rate
The sentiment for average daily rate follows similar
pattern as occupancy, with 67 percent of total
respondents indicating their hotel ADR performance
to be better in the second half of the year and close
to 27 percent of these respondents indicating the
ADR performance to decline.
Total Revenue
The outlook hoteliers had for their respective
propertys total revenue was the most optimistic of
the three performance indicators, with 72 percent of
respondents expecting growth in total revenue,
including 61 percent of respondents expecting
growth in total revenue to be up to 10 percent and
11 percent of respondents expecting growth to be
more than 10 percent.
July 2013
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, results from the
latest edition of the ASEAN
Hotel Market Sentiment Survey
indicate that the on-going global
economic
and
geo-political
uncertainties continue to plague
performance levels across the
globe and sour the outlook
despite the renewed optimism
we have seen at the beginning
of the year for the last couple of
years.
Malaysia (46) and Indonesia (42) had the strongest
sentiment scores driven by strong domestic tourism
and local economic outlook. Both of these
countries were expected to rely heavily on
investments and domestic demand to spur growth.
Singapore and Thailand were sceptical about the
outlook in the second half of the year 2013 given
the influx of new room supply and global economic
concerns. Vietnam hotel market also showed
strong dependence on the local unstable economy,
which posed as threats to hotel performance.
www.horwathhtl.com
Horwath
HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey
ASIA PACIFIC
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND
auckland@horwathhtl.com
BANGKOK, THAILAND
mbrennan@horwathhtl.com
BEIJING, CHINA
beijing@horwathhtl.com
HONG KONG, SAR
hongkong@horwathhtl.com
JAKARTA, INDONESIA
jakarta@horwathhtl.com
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA
kl@horwathhtl.com
MUMBAI, INDIA
vthacker@horwathhtl.com
SHANGHAI, CHINA
shanghai@horwathhtl.com
SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
singapore@horwathhtl.com
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
jsmith@horwathhtl.com.au
TOKYO, JAPAN
tokyo@horwathhtl.com
EUROPE
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
info@horwathhtl.com
ANDORRA LA VELLA, ANDORRA
vmarti@horwathhtl.com
BARCELONA, SPAIN
vmarti@horwathhtl.com
BUDAPEST, HUNGARY
mgomola@horwathhtl.com
DUBLIN, IRELAND
ireland@horwathhtl.com
FRANKFURT, GERMANY
rknospe@horwathhtl.com
ISTABUL, TURKEY
merdogdu@horwathhtl.com
LISBON, PORTUGAL
drodrigues@horwathhtl.com
July 2013
LONDON, UK
eheiberg@horwathhtl.com
MADRID, SPAIN
vmarti@horwathhtl.com
PHOENIX, USA
jreigle@horwathhtl.com
MOSCOW, RUSSIA
mohare@horwathhtl.com
OSLO, NORWAY
pewinther@horwathhtl.com
PARIS, FRANCE
pdoizelet@horwathhtl.com
ROME, ITALY
zbacic@horwathhtl.com
SALZBURG, AUSTRIA
gkroell@horwathhtl.com
WARSAW, POLAND
jmitulski@horwathhtl.com
ZAGREB, CROATIA
scizmar@horwathhtl.com
ZUG, SWITZERLAND
hwerhle@horwathhtl.com
NORTH/ CENTRAL AMERICA
ATLANTA, USA
mbeadle@horwathhtl.com
ATLANTA, USA
pbreslin@horwathhtl.com
TORONTO, CANADA
horwath@horwathhtl.com
SOUTH AMERICA
BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA
mcarrizo@horwathhtl.com
SO PAULO, BRAZIL
mcarrizo@horwathhtl.com
SANTIAGO, CHILE
cspinelli@horwathhtl.com
BOGOTA, COLOMBIA
mjgutierrez@horwathhtl.com
AFRICA
CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA
capetown@horwathhtl.com
MIDDLE EAST
BEIRUT, LEBANON
kamelac@horwathhtl.com
ATLANTA, USA
pgrayboff@horwathhtl.com
CHICAGO, USA
tmandigo@horwathhtl.com
DALLAS, USA
jbinford@horwathhtl.com
DENVER, USA
jmontgomery@horwathhtl.com
LOS ANGELES, USA
ynathraj@horwathhtl.com
LAS VEGAS, USA
lboll@horwathhtl.com
MONTREAL, CANADA
pgaudet@horwathhtl.com
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO
mjgutierrez@horwathhtl.com