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ASEAN Hotel Market
Sentiment Survey
July 2013

Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

July 2013

INTRODUCTION
The Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment
Survey has been designed to provide the hotel
industry with a quick assessment of the future
market outlook. The four-question survey focuses
on the outlook for occupancy, average room rate
and total revenue. In this mid-year survey,
hoteliers have been asked to share their
expectation in respect of market performance for
the coming semester when compared to market
performance in the second half of last year, as
well as provide feedback regarding the impact
continued global economic uncertainties have had
on demand.

SHARE OF RESPONDENTS
BY COUNTRY, JULY 2013
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This report summarizes the outcome, gathered


from responses from Singapore, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Of the 154
respondents, for the first time in the past 3 years,
Malaysia accounted for the largest share of
respondents at 44 percent, followed by Indonesia
at 24 percent, Singapore at 16 percent, Thailand
at 13 percent and Vietnam at 3 percent.
In following the same pattern over the last 3 years,
the mid-year sentiment has again turned negative
after a more optimistic outlook at the start of the
year.

TREND OF RESPONDED SENTIMENT


ASEAN, JUL 2010 JUL 2013

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Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

SENTIMENT RANKINGS

BY
COUNTRY

SENTIMENT RANKINGS
SCORE

Feb
2011

Jul
2011

Mar
2012

Jul
2012

Jan
2013

Jul
2013

75
67
49
51
85

59
35
63
28
24

53
76
50
35
27

37
28
37
--
-24

31
30
67
43
8

42
-30
40
46
-12

Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore

Malaysia recorded the highest


sentiment score for this survey
at 46 in addition to being the
largest share of respondents.

RANKING SCORE KEY


Much Worse
Worse
Same
Better
Much Better

July 2013

-150
-75
0
75
150

As a way to measure and compare the results


across countries, we have created an index to
formulate an overall average sentiment score from
the forward-looking questions. Points are
assigned to each corresponding response and
compounded accordingly.
The index utilizes a scale of negative 150 to
positive 150 in which a score of negative 150
denotes a sentiment of absolute pessimism; a
zero score indicates unchanged expectations from
the previous year whereas a positive 150 signifies
a very optimistic outlook. The sentiment index or
scores allow trends to be observed over time.
Malaysia recorded the highest sentiment score for
this survey at 46 in addition to being the largest
share of respondents. Indonesia continued to
record improved sentiment score from the
beginning of the year.
Apart of Malaysia and Indonesia which registered
improved and optimistic sentiment of the market in
the second half of the year 2013, Vietnam,
Thailand and Singapore showed declining outlook.
Vietnams sentiment score dropped from a
relatively high 30 in January to a low of -30,
indicating that the improved optimism at the start
of the year has been stymied due to its economic
uncertainties. However, it should be noted that the
Vietnam score might not accurately represent
overall market sentiment given the limited number
of respondents.
Singapores sentiment score also registered a
negative 12 signifying that hoteliers expected the
market to be stagnant in the second half of the
year. Although dropping from the beginning of the
year, the sentiment from Thailand hoteliers are
relatively optimistic and on the high of 40. This is
mainly accounted for its fast economic recovery
and regained political stability.

Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

July 2013

FIRST HALF MARKET PERFORMANCE


Question 1: Was the first half 2013 market
performance better or worse than you expected
at the start of the year?
Occupancy
In response to expectations on market-wide
occupancy performance, some 42 percent of the
hoteliers replied that occupancy in the first half of
2013 was worse or much worse than expected;
about 13 percent indicated that occupancy
performance was in line with expectations; and 45
percent of hoteliers felt that occupancy
performance was better or much better than
expected.

The outlook for ADR was


mostly optimistic, with 47
percent of hoteliers replying
that ADR would be better or
much better.

MARKET PERFORMANCE RANKING

Occ

ARR

Rev

Avg

Indonesia

-14

30

-7

Vietnam

-15

-45

-45

-35

Thailand

55

-4

50

34

Malaysia

10

27

21

19

Singapore

-9

-60

-48

-39

ASEAN AVERAGE

Average Daily Rate


Average daily room rate performance performed
more of less the same as occupancy performance,
with the main difference being less respondents
with a negative assessment, with about 38 percent
indicating performance had been worse or much
worse than expected. Approximately 15 percent of
the respondents replied that ADR performance was
the same as expected and 47 percent said ADR
performance was better or much better than
expected.
Total Revenue
The sentiment for total revenue in the first half of
2013 was similar to occupancy sentiment. 43
percent of respondents believed the total revenue
to have been worse of much worse than the
expectation, 12 percent felt that total revenue
remained the same while the remaining 45 percent
said that it was better or much better than the first
half of last year.
Index Score
The index was used to gauge the average
response of respondents with regard to their actual
first half performance when compared to their
expectations at the beginning of the year. On
average, with the exception of Vietnam and
Singapore, all countries have indicated positive
general performance.

Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

July 2013

THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS


Question 2: Have continued global economic
uncertainties impacted hotel demand as much
as you had expected?
When asked if the continued global economic
uncertainties had impacted hotel demand as much
as they had expected, some 30 percent of hoteliers
responded that demand was still affected more or
much more than expected.
Approximately 41 percent of respondents indicated
that the impact of the global economic uncertainties
was in line with their expectations while 29 percent
of respondents felt that the global economic
uncertainties had impacted hotel demand less or
much less than expected.

Indonesia,
Singapore
and
Vietnam all recorded negative
scores to this questions at -6, 36 and -60, respectively,
indicating that these markets
still have strong reliance on
the global economy.
IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISIS
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
ASEAN AVERAGE

SCORE
-6
-60
24
11
-36
-1

Thailand and Malaysia registered positive


sentiment scores at 24 and 11, respectively,
indicating that the global economic crisis continues
to have a direct impact on a majority of hotel
markets in ASEAN region.
Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam all recorded
negative scores to this question at -6, -36 and -60,
respectively, indicating that these markets still have
strong reliance on the global economy.
Overall, the sentiment of the hoteliers in this region
regarding the impact of the global economic
uncertainties on hotel demand is slightly negative,
registering an average score of -1.

Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

July 2013

SECOND HALF MARKET OUTLOOK


Question 3: What are your expectations for the
second half 2013 market performance compared
to second half 2012?
At least 57 percent of respondents stated that they
expect hotel performance in all three measures to
perform better or much better in the second half of
the year when compared to market performance in
the second half of last year.

At least 57 percent of
respondents stated that they
expect hotel performance in
all three measures to perform
better or much better in the
second half of the year

EXPECTATIOPN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF


THE YEAR 2013
Occ ARR Rev Avg
Indonesia
40
56
59
52
Vietnam
-15 -30 -15
-20
Thailand
59
9
49
39
Malaysia
45
52
53
50
Singapore
6
-27 -21
-14
ASEAN AVERAGE
37
32
39
36

Occupancy
Close to 60 percent of hoteliers from these five
countries expected occupancy performance in the
second half of 2013 to be better or much better in
comparison to occupancy performance in the
second half of 2012. However, approximately 16
percent of respondents believed that occupancy
performance will be lower or much lower, and 24
percent of respondents said that occupancy
performance would remain comparable to that in
the second half of last year.
Average Daily Rate
Compared to the sentiment recorded for occupancy,
a higher percentage of respondents at 19 percent
stated that they expected average daily rate in the
second half of 2013 to be lower or much lower than
the second half of 2012. The same number of
respondents at 24 percent believed that the
average daily rate would remain comparable to that
in the second half of 2012, while 57 percent of
respondents said that the average daily rate would
perform better or much better.
Total Revenue
The second half expectations for total revenue were
more polarized than for occupancy and ADR, with a
reduced 15 percent of respondents expecting
performance levels to remain the same. A total of
66 percent of respondents expected total revenue
to increase in the second half of 2013, while 19
percent of respondents stated that the revenue
performance would be worse or much worse.

Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

July 2013

HOTEL PERFORMANCE EXPECTATION


Question 4: For your hotel, what are your
expectations for the second half 2013
performance compared to second half 2012?

100%
90%
80%
+15% +
70%

+10% to +15%
+5% to +10%

60%

0% to +5%
50%

0%
0% to -5%

40%

-5% to -10%

30%

Hoteliers have a slightly more pessimistic


expectation for their own hotels performance
compared to the market in general. While the
majority of responses are on the positive side for all
three categories, at the extreme end of the ranges,
responses tend to be more negative.

-10% to -15%

20%

-15% +

10%
0%
Occ

ADR

Rev

The outlook hoteliers had for


their respective propertys
total revenue was the most
optimistic
of
the
three
performance indicators

SECOND HALF HOTEL PERFORMANCE


EXPECTATION
Occ ARR Rev
Indonesia
20
39
40
Vietnam
-45 -45 -30
Thailand
47
27
50
Malaysia
34
44
46
Singapore
12 -29 -14
ASEAN AVERAGE
26
25
32

Avg
33
-40
41
41
-10
28

Occupancy
Overall, 67 percent of hoteliers expected occupancy
performance at their hotels in the second half of
2013 to be better than occupancy performance in
the same period last year. Close to 59 percent of
the total number of respondents indicated that they
expected occupancy to grow up to 10 percent in the
second half of the year.
Approximately 24 percent of the hoteliers indicated
that they expected occupancy to decline, with 21
percent of the respondents expecting the decline to
be up to 10 percent.
Average Daily Rate
The sentiment for average daily rate follows similar
pattern as occupancy, with 67 percent of total
respondents indicating their hotel ADR performance
to be better in the second half of the year and close
to 27 percent of these respondents indicating the
ADR performance to decline.
Total Revenue
The outlook hoteliers had for their respective
propertys total revenue was the most optimistic of
the three performance indicators, with 72 percent of
respondents expecting growth in total revenue,
including 61 percent of respondents expecting
growth in total revenue to be up to 10 percent and
11 percent of respondents expecting growth to be
more than 10 percent.

Horwath HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

OTHER MARKET SENTIMENT REPORTS


BY REGION
ASEAN
Benelux
Europe
South East Europe
BY COUNTRY
Australia
Austria
Canada
China
Hungary
Indonesia
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Norway
Poland
South Africa
Switzerland
BY CITY/DESTINATION
Beijing
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Qubec

July 2013

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, results from the
latest edition of the ASEAN
Hotel Market Sentiment Survey
indicate that the on-going global
economic
and
geo-political
uncertainties continue to plague
performance levels across the
globe and sour the outlook
despite the renewed optimism
we have seen at the beginning
of the year for the last couple of
years.
Malaysia (46) and Indonesia (42) had the strongest
sentiment scores driven by strong domestic tourism
and local economic outlook. Both of these
countries were expected to rely heavily on
investments and domestic demand to spur growth.
Singapore and Thailand were sceptical about the
outlook in the second half of the year 2013 given
the influx of new room supply and global economic
concerns. Vietnam hotel market also showed
strong dependence on the local unstable economy,
which posed as threats to hotel performance.

www.horwathhtl.com
Horwath
HTL ASEAN Hotel Market Sentiment Survey

ASIA PACIFIC
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND
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BANGKOK, THAILAND
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BEIJING, CHINA
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HONG KONG, SAR
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JAKARTA, INDONESIA
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KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA
kl@horwathhtl.com
MUMBAI, INDIA
vthacker@horwathhtl.com
SHANGHAI, CHINA
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SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
singapore@horwathhtl.com
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
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TOKYO, JAPAN
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EUROPE
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
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BARCELONA, SPAIN
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LISBON, PORTUGAL
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July 2013

LONDON, UK
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NEW YORK, USA


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PHOENIX, USA
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SAN FRANCISCO, USA


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OSLO, NORWAY
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SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN


REPUBLIC
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PARIS, FRANCE
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