Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Guy Grossman
Laura Paler
Jan Pierskalla
Leslie Marshall
Assistant
Contents
1
Executive Summary
Introduction
10
14
15
19
5.1
5.2
36
6.1
6.2
54
62
8.1
76
81
85
List of Tables
1
Differences between oil and non-oil regions, expected benefits and concerns . . . . . . . . . 60
Ethnic identity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Pre-Matching Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Post-Matching Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
10
11
12
Oil and non-oil region differences by NRM support (expected benefits and concerns) . . . . 84
List of Figures
1
10
News Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Political participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
19
Political efficacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
20
Oil knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
21
22
23
Perception of oil revenues effect on the national budget (by stratification variables) . . . . . 39
24
Spending preferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Information Treatments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Summary Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
52
Religious affiliation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
Executive Summary
Following the discovery of oil in Uganda in 2006, the question of whether the countrys newfound resource
wealth will be beneficial or harmful for its development has been a focus of substantial attention. In the
past two decades there has been a growing awareness on the part of academics, practitioners, and policy
makers around the world of the possible detrimental effects of mineral wealth, including weak economic
growth, corruption, civil conflict, and the erosion of transparency and accountability in many resource-rich
countries. The resource curse can take shape through numerous different channels. Evidence suggests
that it can undermine the incentives of political leaders to implement policies that are in the best interest of
citizens; weaken the will or ability of citizens to be politically engaged; or generate grievances within society
over how the wealth is distributed. Importantly, whether examining accountability deficits or conflict, at the
heart of the matter are the knowledge, expectations, preferences and sense of ownership of regular citizens.
The starting point of this study is our belief that in order to counteract the possibility of a resource curse
one has to pay close attention to what the public knows and wants, and how these may change overtime in
response to changing circumstances.
This project is therefore explicitly designed to provide a baseline assessment of citizens knowledge and
attitudes toward oil, approximately 2-3 years prior to the actual commercial production of oil in Uganda.
The first goal of this research project is to study the knowledge of and engagement of Ugandans on oil
issuesincluding their demand for transparency and accountability in the oil sector. To accomplish this,
we conducted a nationally representative survey of 2,714 people from 76 constituencies and 304 villages in
52 districts across Uganda. The survey allows us to assess Ugandans current state of knowledge regarding
the oil sector, their sense of ownership over natural resources, their expectations regarding the impact of oil
revenues on Uganda, and their preferences with respect to the usage of oil revenues. When analyzing survey
responses special care was given to examining how citizens knowledge and engagement varies depending
on individual-level characteristics (such as gender and party affiliation) and geography (proximity to oil
production sites).
The main findings of the survey, discussed below in Sections 5 and 6, are somewhat alarming. Ugandans
have low levels of knowledge of the oil sector, and they especially know very little about the size of the
expected revenue. More so, we find that Ugandans do not view oil governance issues as politically salient,
even though the survey took place as the Ugandan parliament was debating key aspects of the sectors
regulatory framework. Consistent with the resource curse literature, Ugandans have very high (unrealistic)
expectations regarding the impact of oil on the national budget and they generally expect that many positive
benefits would be realized in the short term. In addition we find that Ugandans express low levels of trust
with parliament and in their MP and they have little confidence that parliament is able to check the power of
the executive branch. This too is a source of concern. Equally concerning is our finding that, at least outside
the oil regions, most Ugandans underestimate the possible costs of oil production and exploration, and that
residents of oil and non-oil regions have quite different ideas regarding what constitutes a fair allocation of
oil revenue to the oil regions.
Indeed we find significant differences between oil residents and non-oil residents in both attitudes and
political behavior. For example, Ugandans in the oil region show stronger support for the NRM, and gen6
erally report higher levels of trust in and satisfaction with the President. In addition, we find that oil-region
residents have different policy priorities and are more politically active than constituents in non-oil areas.
Specific to oil, Ugandans in the oil regions have greater knowledge of oil related issues and higher expectations regarding the impact of oil on the size of the national budget. They also show a preference for
allocating a larger share of oil revenue to the oil region and, moreover, have higher expectation of receiving
future benefits from oil companies. They generally trust the national government to manage the oil sector
effectively.
Importantly, though results presented in Section 5 and Section 6 allow us to compare attitudes and
behavior as a function of oil-region status, they do not allow us to conclude that these differences are due
to the oil discovery, rather than to some other factors. The second goal of the study is therefore to push
our analysis to further unpack public opinion and attitudes of ordinary Ugandans as a function of proximity
to oil. Specifically, we are interested in exploring whether some of the systematic differences found in our
public opinion survey between oil and non-oil residents are in fact due to the oil discovery.
The challenge with knowing the extent to which oil is contributing to these differences is that there
are other factors correlated with both the location of oil and the outcomes of interest. When we address
this challenge statistically in Section 7 by controlling for pre-discovery factors, we find that, even after
accounting for pre-discovery factors, oil-region residents express a higher level of awareness about oilrelated issues paired with an increased demand for a larger share of oil revenue to be allocated to the oil
regions. Equally important is our finding that for a number of distinct activities, respondents in the oil
region are far less likely to become politically active with regard to the issue of oil: oil region residents
report less willingness to seek information about the presidents handling of the oil sector or information
about local officials; they are less likely to attend rallies in support of policies dealing with the management
of the oil sector; they are also less willing to attend community meetings arranged by oil companies or
contact their community leaders; and they are also less interested in signing up for an SMS service that
would have provided them with additional information about oil in the future. In short, we document a
robust and consistent finding that though residents of oil districts know more about oil and expect to receive
a larger share of future revenues, they are at the same time significantly less likely to act in ways that might
seem confrontational.
On one hand, despite the fact that tangible benefits of oil production are yet to be realized, local residents
are better informed about the oil sector and have very clear expectations about future revenue flows. On the
other hand, while the discovery of oil has heightened expectations about fiscal revenues and specific benefits,
respondents in the oil region are clearly not (yet) willing to become politically engaged in support of these
demands. Instead, individuals are decidedly less willing to engage government officials than respondents in
the non-oil regions. While it is too early to identify the exact reasons for this pattern, one plausible explanation might be that Ugandans in the oil region engage in anticipatory acquiescence and do not want to rock
the boat, momentarily giving the government the benefit of the doubt. If this is indeed the case, any efforts
at ensuring good governance of the oil sector by encouraging citizen engagement might face substantial
difficulties. We believe that it is of utmost importance to track whether levels of trust in the President and
willingness to disengage politically changes overtime as public expectations about oil production adjust to
actual realities. Indeed, the lack of willingness to engage on the issue of oil is clearly not driven by a lack
of concerns. As we show below, Ugandans in the oil region are quite sensitive to a host of risks associated
with oil production and exploration. This suggests that while a careful wait-and-see attitude is prevalent at
the moment, adjusted expectations might quickly generate meaningful changes in peoples attitudes.
Given the relatively low levels of knowledge and engagement at present, a key policy relevant question
arises: how can citizens be mobilized to demand better governance of the oil sector? The third key goal of
this research project is, therefore, to test whether providing citizens with information about oil related issues
can encourage them to take action to demand transparency and accountable management of the resource
sector. To explore the question of how to use information to mobilize political action, we implemented a set
of information experiments within the survey. Each experiment was explicitly designed to examine the effect
of specific factors that may change the way citizens reevaluate the importance of being politically engaged
with respect to oil management. For example, we examine whether political engagement can increase when
citizens receive information on the size of the national and regional benefits of oil or on the role of elected
officials (the President, MPs, and local government) in managing resource wealth. The experimental design
and results are presented in great detail in Section 8.
Previewing our results, we do not find strong evidence that providing information on oil motivates
greater political action, at least not at this point in time. Though we find some evidence that providing
information on the impact of oil on the national budget leads to higher levels of engagement in the nonoil region, this primarily seems to arise by depressing engagement in the oil region. We also find some
evidence that information on allocation of greater resources to oil regions increases demand for information
in the oil and non-oil regions alike. This, however, does not necessarily translate into a willingness to
hold politicians accountable in the oil region. Importantly our experimental findings are consistent with a
dont rock the boat story in the oil region. Indeed the study provides suggestive evidence that reminding oil
region residents about national and regional benefits has the effect of making them less willing to take action
oriented at politicians, even if it makes them more interested in oil-related issues. Overall, the weakness of
the experimental results further corroborate the difficulties associated with using information to mobilize
political engagement at this early stage in the production process before revenue has started flowing.
This study makes several contributions to the study of oil governance in Uganda, and beyond. First, it
contributes to the understanding of the potential for a resource curse in Uganda and for the phenomenon of
the resource curse more broadly. To our knowledge this is the only systematic study of how individuals are
thinking and feeling about oil issues at this early stage of the extraction process. Although production has
not yet begun, as described above, this is the key period in which the institutional framework governing the
sector is being put in place. Thus, even though oil as an issue may not be as salient as it will be once the
revenue starts flowing in, this is the key time to think about how to mobilize citizens to demand a transparent
and accountable resource sector and try to influence the policy debate at the national level.
Second, though the resource curse literature assumes that the actions of citizens, their expectations and
attitudes are key in understanding why the curse takes place in some places but not in others, very few
studies have actually measured those key ingredients. This study is therefore unique in actually measuring the political attitudes, expectations, preferences, policy priorities, and political behavior of Ugandans,
rather than simply assuming them from the realities on the ground. We wish to stress however, that this
study provides a snapshot of the attitudes, preferences and sense of ownership about three years prior to oil
extraction. In order to know in what direction Uganda is trendingi.e., whether it is averting or heading
towards a resource curseit is of utmost importance to track such attitudes and behavior over time. Knowing where the public stands and what it knows can also help in the design of outreach activities, better align
government activities with the publics preferences, and ensure the inclusion of ordinary Ugandans voices
in public debates over the governance of the oil sector and how future revenues will be used.
Introduction
Although it has been suspected that Uganda had oil deposits since the 1930s, the existence of these deposits
was not confirmed until 2006. With this discovery, international and domestic attention has turned to how
the Ugandan government plans to structure and regulate its emerging oil sector. According to the most recent
estimates, Uganda has a total of more than 6.5 billion barrels of oil to be developed, most of which is located
in the Albertine Graben in the West of the country.1 This estimate is almost double that of the 3.5 billion
barrels that was confirmed just three years ago. Of the 6.5 billion barrels of oil that have been identified,
Ugandas Energy Ministry estimates that 1.4 billion barrels are recoverable. Moreover, oil exploration work
has taken place in less than 40 percent of the Albertine Graben, meaning that it is highly probable Uganda
has yet to realize the full extent of its oil wealth. Additionally, the Albertine Graben is not the only area of
Uganda where oil discovery is anticipated. Other basins that may have oil deposits are the Hoima basin (to
the east of Lake Albert), the Lake Kyoga basin (in the center of the country), and the Kadam-Moroto basin,
still further east, in the Karamoja sub-region. These explorations could put Ugandas reserves at over 10
billion barrels.
To put Ugandas oil reserve figures in a wider context, Saudi Arabia, the worlds richest oil state, has 263
billion barrels of "proven" reserves, Nigeria has 37 billion and Angola has 9.5 billion. While Ugandas oil
reserves are a small fraction of those discovered in many other oil-producing countries, its deposits are well
above the 400 million barrel threshold for commercial viability. Ugandas oil reserves are expected to supply
domestic needs while selling a significant surplus overseas. With full scale production and export expected
by 2017, it is anticipated that reserves will yield 150-250,000 barrels per day and rents at 10-15% of GDP
for at least 20 years (Gelb and Majerowicz, 2011). According to Tullow Oil, one of the companies working
to develop Ugandas energy resources, Uganda could earn upwards of $50 billion from oil production before
the discovered oil fields are exhausted (Tullow, 2013). What this massive influx of revenue means for the
future of Uganda and its people remains unclear.
Given that Uganda has never been a producer of oil, the new discoveries have forced Ugandas government and parliament to reexamine (and update) the countrys regulatory framework for its nascent oil
and gas sector. Interestingly and somewhat unexpectedly, the process of putting in place a new regulatory
framework has been fraught with some tension between President Museveni and the 9th parliament. On
one side, President Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, seems determined to minimize oversight
and maximize the control of the executive branch over all aspects of the oil sector (signing contracts, granting exploration licenses, managing revenues, etc). Challenging Museveni is a group of equally determined
MPs from both the ruling party (NRM) and the opposition, who are keen on increasing both parliamentary
oversight and the control of technocratic agencies such as the National Petroleum Authority. This struggle reached a pinnacle in December 2012 when parliament approved a comprised version of the Petroleum
[Exploration, Development and Production] Act.
According to the Petroleum Bill, which was signed into law in March 2013, the Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Development (i.e., the President) maintains the powers to grant and revoke oil exploration licenses,
1 The Albertine Graben is an area of about 500 kilometers long and around 45 kilometers wide, forming Ugandas western border
with the DRC and stretching from Lake Edward in the south to the border with South Sudan in the north. See Figure 1 below.
10
11
and to sign agreements in the oil sector without the need to obtain parliamentary approval. In addition, the
law does not require the Ugandan government to make public the Production Sharing Agreements it signs
with oil companies. In addition, the president was granted the powers to nominate the board members of
the newly established National Petroleum Authority (NPA).2 Parliament was also able to strike some small
victories: (a) it was granted the right to approve the presidents pick of the NPAs board members, (b) it
passed an amendment ensuring that the NPA and the National Oil Company would be 100% state owned
and (c) it dropped a clause that granted the government a right for confidentiality in oil wealth management.
Notably almost half of members of parliament left the chamber in protest and therefore did not cast a vote,
which has been interpreted in Uganda as a sign of a growing reluctance of parliament to act as a rubber
stamp for the executive.
The current Petroleum Bill does not address the issue of oil revenue management. Instead, a separate
Petroleum Revenue Management section was somewhat unceremoniously passed into law as part of the
new Public Finance Management Act (2015) after being first proposed in 2010. What began as a bill
meant to concentrate decision-making power in the hands of the executive, met with enough resistance from
parliament to prompt a radical redrafting. The new law is well-summarized by prominent Ugandan journalist
Angelo Izama, who has been covering oil and gas developments in the country for several years: In total
the new law places responsibility for management of oil revenues on the countrys ministry of finance
and the Central Bank while holding elected governments responsible for spending limitations through the
execution of a Charter of Fiscal Responsibility at the start of the financial year. The Parliament is ultimately
responsible for approving expenditures and auditing the performance of the government.
It is evident that
over a relatively short period of time, the imminent introduction of oil to Ugandas economy has prompted
a surge in demand from parliament for a greater share of control over governance in Uganda.
Still, it is not clear that the new division will actually result in more decision-making power for parliamentarians, as President Musevenis strong influence over the oil sector is well-known.4 Uganda has
generally weak democratic institutions and many of its statutory bodies (e.g., National Environment Authority) have disturbingly low capacity that commonly cripples their oversight and implementation powers.5
Together with a political culture that is tolerant towards corruption, there is real danger that Uganda is following a path that leads towards a resource curse. This concern is shared among many stakeholders
journalists, civil-society activists and MPs active in the debates over the regulation of Ugandas oil and
gas sector.
The prospect of oil production has also generated debate over the appropriate distribution of oil revenues.
2 The bill established a National Oil Company (NOC) and a National Petroleum Authority (NPA) as the industry regulator. The
relationship between the Petroleum Exploration and Production Department of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development,
the NOC and the PA and the roles and responsibilities of each of those statutory bodies are still somewhat unclear. See Oil in
Uganda.
3 Angelo Izama, Uganda quietly passes oil revenue management law, November 30, 2014.
4 For example, decisions such as which of the two competing firms, a Russian and Korean conglomerate, gets selected to be the
lead investor for the proposed 60bpd refinery, rest with him alone. See Izama Uganda quietly passes oil revenue management law,
November 30, 2014.
5 Interviews we conducted in Uganda suggest that state capacity is just as important as regulation. Many times the source of
civil unrest is not the legal frameworkindeed, some of the laws protecting, say, the environment, are quite progressivebut lack
enforcement.
12
Again, crucial decision-making power rests with the presidency in setting the parameters of the fiscal bargain
over future oil revenues. The recently passed Public Finance Management Act, while only a first step,
is likely to codify a status quo with respect to the distribution of government revenues across levels of
government and between producer and non-producer regions that will be hard to overturn. According to the
Public Finance Management Act (2015), the central government will retain 93 percent of royalties arising
from petroleum production and the remaining six percent will be shared among the local governments
located in the oil region (Article 75.1). In an important departure from earlier drafts, cultural or traditional
institutions (i.e. the traditional kingdoms) will be granted one percentage point of royalties at the expense
of the local governments, which were previously slated to receive seven percent of royalties.
One other debate settled (at least temporarily) by the Public Finance Management Act is the formula for
dividing the oil revenue among the oil-region district governments. Of the six percent of annual royalties
allocated to all oil-region local government, 50% will be shared in proportion to level of production,
and 50% allocated based on population size, geographic area and terrain. Another, subtler, dimension
of the fiscal debate hinges on the definition of the oil region in regards to the fiscal formula outlined in
the Public Finance Management Act. Importantly, the Public Finance Management Act (2015) does not
provide a definition of eligible local governments, and instead empowers the Minister of Energy and Mineral
Development (i.e., the executive branch) to come up with a list of eligible local governments.6 Executive
influence over the official designation of producer regions narrowly defined over actual oil production or
more liberally to include the wider region adjacent to Lake Albert will have enormous consequences for
local government revenue. The designation of local governments as being inside or outside the oil-region
will also have significant distributional implications that could be a source of future grievances, as has been
the case in Nigeria (Blair, 2014), Bolivia (Mhler and Pierskalla, 2015) and elsewhere.
Finally, it is notable that, to a large extent, the public has been all but absent in the recent debates over
the regulation of the oil sector. With few exceptions, most of the work of civil society organizations (CSOs)
has been to educate and build the capacity of urban elites: MPs and journalists. This reflects to a large
degree the skepticism of civil society players with respect to the publics role in policymaking. Interviews
we conducted suggest that many CSO activists do not believe that the public can construct meaningful
preferences with respect to oil because the sector is too technical. Even if the public had clear priorities
and preferences, it is widely believed that public opinion can hardly matter because Uganda (as in many
low-income countries) lacks the institutional framework to aggregate citizens opinions: opposition parties
are weak and there are virtually no independent periodic public opinion polls. This project is designed
to help alleviate the lack of two-way communication on oil and oil-related issues by providing a baseline
assessment of citizens knowledge and attitudes toward oil approximately three years prior to the actual
commercial production of oil in Uganda.
6 Importantly, in previous drafts the 6-7 percent royalties were granted to the district governments.
13
The legal framework that has been put in place in recent years to regulate Ugandas oil sector is especially
important in light of the widespread belief that resource wealth can, paradoxically, cripple development.
While countries such as Norway and Botswana have largely avoided the so-called resource curse, others
such as Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon have failed to translate natural resource windfalls into better
welfare for citizens. All too often, natural resource wealth is associated with a host of bad development
outcomes, including disappointing economic growth, high levels of corruption, under-provision of public
goods, a lack of transparency and accountability, and civil conflict (Sachs and Warner, 2001; Tornell and
Lane, 1998; Robinson, Torvik and Verdier, 2006; Brollo et al., 2012; Ross, 2012).
The specific focus of this project is on the effects of oil abundance on the political behavior of citizens in response to policies and actions taken by their leaders when oil is discovered. A large literature on
the resource curse argues that resource wealth undermines transparent, accountable, and clean government.
One possible explanation for this bad governance outcome is that natural resources provide politicians
with revenue that they can use to buy political support, either by providing public goods or private goods
to supporters. Resource wealth has thus been associated with patronage, clientelism, corruption, and incumbency advantage (Robinson, Torvik and Verdier, 2006). In contrast, beginning with a large literature
on rentier states, scholars have argued that natural resources replace domestic taxation, which undermines
citizen motivation to take political action (Ross, 2001; Paler, 2013). From a political agency perspective, oil
can exacerbate information asymmetries between leaders and citizens, thus making it harder for citizens in
resource rich countries to hold politicians accountable effectively (Gadenne, 2014). Taken together, these
literatures suggest that oil weakens the will or ability of citizens to take action to demand transparency and
accountability in the governance of the resource sector.
By contrast, the literature on resources and civil conflict suggests that natural resource wealth can actually mobilize citizens to take (violent) political action. While there are again numerous possible mechanisms
(Humphreys, 2005), many have emphasized that natural resources can motivate rebels to capture the resource
revenue accruing to the central government, either by taking over the central government or seceding if located in a resource rich region (LeBillon, 2001). Others have emphasized that civil conflict can emerge if
resources generate distributional grievances. Distributional grievances could be more likely to emerge in
producer regions if they feel a strong sense of ownership or entitlement to the resource, they are bearing an
(uncompensated) unequal share of the economic or environmental costs of extraction or when resource extraction interacts with salient identity frames that can be used for mobilization (Aspinall, 2007; Ross, 2006;
Mhler and Pierskalla, 2015). Of course, the non-oil region could contest this if they feel that resources are
a national treasure and that the oil region is getting too great a share of the wealth. Of particular interest to
Uganda where production has not yet begun, evidence suggests that resource discovery on its own is capable of increasing the probability of civil war onset by 58 percentage points (Lei and Michaels, 2014) or of
extending the duration of civil conflict through the promise of future wealth (Lujala, 2010). Even if the mere
discovery of oil does not necessarily lead to violent conflict, incumbent governments might try to pre-empt
challenges to their control over oil revenues by increasing military expenditures and repressing political opposition (Cotet and Tsui, 2013). All in all, those focused on conflict have emphasized that resourcesoften
14
depending on how benefits are shared and distributed geographicallycan engender contentious and violent
political action.
As can be seen, explanations for the resource curse centered on governance or conflict suggest very different political action outcomes for citizens, but uniformly highlight the importance of Ugandas oil discovery for its political future. Governance stories suggest that resources cause a decrease in more conventional
forms of political action while conflict stories suggest that resources can increase violent and unconventional types of political action. Whether oil increases or decreases political action at the individual-level
depends in large part on the actions taken by political leaders but also the overall context in a given country.
The majority of academic and policy studies have engaged this question of the resource curse only at the
macro-level, tracing the effects of resource wealth for whole political systems, without trying to unpack the
micro-level logic (an example of a notable exception is Paler (2013)). A central objective of this study is
to understand how the political and social context of Uganda and events to date since the oil discovery are
shaping the nature of political engagement on oil issues at the individual level. As such, it will offer a truly
unique perspective on the political process with regard to oil governance in Uganda and beyond.
This is particularly important in the Ugandan context because events since the oil discovery in 2006 raise
concerns about the potential for oil revenue to undermine good governance or contribute to distributional
conflict. As described in the preceding section, some are concerned that the 2013 Petroleum Act gives
excessive power to the executive and limits transparency and parliamentary oversight of the resource sector.
Others have pointed to the debate over how to divide the pie between the oil and non-oil districts, as well
as over how to define an oil district, as potential fodder for the emergence of distributional grievances
down the road. This highlights an important point. On one hand, these are still (relatively) early days for
Uganda as it is still in the period before production has really begun. We thus would not expect a fullblown resource curse at this stage. On the other hand, the institutional framework governing the oil sector
is being put in place now and that framework is very likely to shape the probability that a resource curse
will emerge. Thus, even though oil is a lower salience issue for citizens at present, as our evidence suggests,
it is crucially important to understand and facilitate citizen engagement so that the public can influence
the policy framework and take steps to prevent harmful laws from being put in place. Understanding the
extent to which citizens are engaged on this issue and the extent to which they can be mobilized to demand
transparent and accountable governance of the oil sector motivated the study design, described next.
The over-arching objective of this study is to understand how recent developments in Uganda are shaping
citizen knowledge of, attitudes towards, and behavior on oil-related issues. The study is motivated by three
questions in particular: To what extent is there variationparticularly geographic variationin peoples
engagement on oil issues? To what extent can we say that oil is actually causing or contributing to this variation, which is the central concern of the literature on the resource curse? And, finally, to what extent might
it be possible to mitigate some of the detrimental effects of oil by providing citizens with better information
on the governance of the oil sector? We describe our approach to answering these three questions below.
15
sampling frame follows the structure adopted in the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS2011) and the
2010 Uganda National Household Survey (2010UNHS).
16
Given budget constraints, we randomly sampled 76 parliamentary constituencies (out of a total of 238
constituencies) within the regional strata. Half of the constituencies were selected from areas defined as
oil regions and half from non-oil regions.8 Within each block defined by oil-region status, parliamentary
constituencies were randomly selected with selection probabilities proportional to the most recent projected
population size. Within each sampled constituency, we further randomly sampled four EAs, and then nine
respondents per EA. The selection of individual respondents from each sampled EA followed a systematic
random process implemented by the field team. The total sample was thus expected to be 2, 736 (=7649)
respondents. Due to some unavoidable issues in the field, 22 interviews (across different EAs) were not
completed such that the total number of interviews available for analysis is 2,714.9
The selection of 36 interviews per constituency resulted in an oversample at the sub-region level, which
has been addressed through data weighting throughout the analysis presented below. Face-to-face interviews
were then conducted with individual respondents following informed consent. The sampling frame used to
select individual respondents was also executed by the field team in such a way as to ensure gender parity
among those interviewed. This design is reflected in that men (1, 363 respondents) and women (1, 351) are
almost equally represented in the sample. The analysis of the descriptive data is presented in Sections 56.
oil regions in this study are Acholi, West Nile, Bunyoro, Ankole, Kigezi and Bukonjo/Bwamba and Toro.
of enumeration areas were also necessary in seven cases. All four EAs in Kyamuswa County constituency had to
be substituted with four EAs in Ntenjeru County South constituency due to the prohibitively high cost for deploying and maintaining
a survey team on two remote islands in Kalangala district. Additionally, due to insecurity on the Uganda-South Sudan border at
the time of enumeration, Afoji village in West Moyo County had to be substituted with Fodia A village in the same constituency.
Meanwhile, Kaurikiakine village in Bokora County had to be substituted with Kasile A village in the same constituency due to poor
road conditions that prevented field vehicle access to the originally selected area. Finally, water transportation complications in
poor weather conditions forced the need to substitute Damba village in Buvuma Islands County with Zzinga B village in the same
constituency. All substitute villages (and the one substitute constituency) were selected using a systematic random process.
9 Substitutions
17
group of villages outside the oil region. We then use standard regression analysis for our matched data to
determine the effects of oil on a number of attitudinal and behavioral outcome measures.10
Importantly, matching and regression adjustment do not allow us to take a strictly causal interpretation
of the results, as there could always be differences that we failed to control for. But the 2002 census and
2006 electoral data are quite rich and enable us to control for a large number of economic (e.g. poverty and
development), social (e.g. religious and ethnic fractionalization), and political (e.g. support for president,
NRM) factors. As such, we believe this additional analysis, in conjunction with the descriptive results from
the survey, succeeds in getting us one step closer towards understanding the effects of an oil discovery on
knowledge, attitudes, and willingness to take political action.
some of our robustness checks we also run analyses for villages only in the oil region, exploiting the effect of proximity to
the actual discoveries.
18
In this section we provide descriptive information on our sample of Ugandan citizens. Specifically we summarize the political attitudes, expectations, preferences, policy priorities, and political behavior of Ugandans
about three years prior to oil extraction. Our goal is to draw attention to the current level of political engagement and knowledge, which as we mention above, would be very important to track overtime. Knowing
where the public stands and what it knows can also help in the design of outreach activities as well in better
aligning government activities with the publics preferences. Importantly, in this section we only present
information on where the public currently stands without attempting to causally link current attitudes and
behavior to the discovery of oil. As notes, this link will be made more explicit in Section 7.
Throughout the descriptive portions of the report results are presented along one or more of the following
key demographic dimensions: gender, oil region status, and political party identification. The breakdown to
key subgroups of interest is illustrative, but should not be taken to necessarily represent a causal relationship.
For example, consider a finding that those identifying with the NRM hold some different attitudes as compared to those identifying with one of the opposition parties. Such a finding is illustrative and interesting but
it should not be understood as if this difference is necessarily caused by variation in party attachment. This
is because difference in political attitudes can be the cause rather than the effect of party identification, or
because there may be other factors (e.g., urbanization and education) that cause people to both adopt some
attitudes and to feel close to one party or another. We now turn to explain in further detail how the subgroup
strata oil region status and party identification have been constructed.
Oil-region status has been assigned based on whether or not the enumeration area was in one of the
following oil regions: Acholi, West Nile, Bukonjo/Bwamba, Bunyoro, Ankole, Kigezi and Toro. All respondents living in one of these regions were coded as having oil area status and all of those living outside
of these regions were coded as having non-oil area status. Due to the oversampling strategy, 50% of respondents come from oil areas, while 50% were sampled from non-oil areas. Portions of this report expound
even further upon respondents location relative to oil in order to gain more insight into the importance of
this factor with regard to citizen attitudes and behavior at baseline.
In addition to gender and oil-region status, the third variable used throughout the descriptive portion of
this report is party identification. Party identification is a binary variable which gets the value of one for
the 59% of respondents who (self-reported) as voting for the National Resistance Movements Member of
Parliament (MP) candidate in the 2011 elections, and a value of zero for the remaining 41% of respondents.
Vote choice in the MP election is used as an indicator of political party identification rather than vote choice
in the presidential election because it offers slightly more variation and insight into individual preferences.
The presidential race in Uganda was not competitive in 2011, and there are some reasons to believe that
people feel a stronger pressure to vote (or report voting) for President Museveni regardless of their true
party affiliation. Since parliamentary elections are, on average, more competitive they are a better indication
of voter preferences.11
11 Importantly,
voting for the NRM MP candidate is still a good predictor of presidential vote choice, as only 6% of those report
voting for the NRM MP candidate did not vote for Museveni in the presidential election. Meanwhile, 15% of those who report
voting for President Museveni did not vote for the NRMs MP candidate.
19
The relationship between oil region status and party identification is presented in Figure 2. For each of
the four cells of the mosaic plot, we report the share of respondents out of the entire sample and the number
of respondents in parentheses. For example, 32% respondents (859 interviewees) both affiliate with the
NRM and reside in an oil region. By contrast, the share of non-NRM supporters that live in the oil region
is only 18% (495 respondents). For other background characteristics of the survey respondents, such as
ethnicity, religion, educational attainment and literacy rate, please refer to the appendix. Importantly, since
we use survey (probability) weights, results reported throughout this report represent population estimates
rather than merely the attitudes and perceptions of the sample.
Party ID
Nonoil
18%
(495)
NRM
27%
(728)
Oil
23%
(630)
Oil
NonNRM
32%
(859)
5.1
This section highlights Ugandans views of the quality of public services in their communities. This section
also presents and discusses those areas of need that Ugandans feel require the greatest and most immediate
attention from government officials. These data are important to measure in baseline in order to examine
whether citizens evaluation of government services and their preferences for government policy priorities
change over time with increased oil production.
Quality of Public Services
Sampled respondents were asked to rate the overall quality of the following public services in their communities: the government primary school system (UPE), government health centers and hospitals, roads
and bridges, access to clean water, safety from crime and violence, and the Agricultural Extension Services
20
(NAADS). Citizens ratings were elicited on a five-point scale: (1) very bad, (2) somewhat bad, (3) just ok,
(4) somewhat good, and (5) very good. Population estimates are presented in Figure 3 below.
As Figure 3 makes clear, Ugandans have a low evaluation of the quality of key social services. Even
the highest ranked public servicessafety from crime and violence (mean of 2.67) and access to clean
water (mean of 2.59)are evaluated to be below just okay. Ugandans rating of other public services is
even more troubling; for example, the average rating for quality of the Agricultural Extension Services is
only 2.02, placing it almost exactly at a rating of somewhat bad overall. With the majority of Ugandans
dependent primarily upon work in the agricultural sector, this is particularly noteworthy.
Perceptions of the quality of key infrastructural installments also do not fair well. Overall, Ugandans
report low quality ratings with regard to roads and bridges (mean of 2.16) and government health centers
and hospitals (mean of 2.19), respectively. Ugandans also view the quality of the government school system
(UPE) to be closer to somewhat bad than to just okay at a mean response of 2.30.
50
50
mean=2.30
40
35
30
25
20
20
16
10
0
Percent
Percent
40
Somewhat Bad
27
30
20
14
Very Bad
Roads/Bridges
Percent
Percent
mean=2.59
40
25
20
15
16
10
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
33
30
20
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
47
mean=2.02
40
22
25
20
Percent
40
Percent
21
10
mean=2.67
25
16
30
25
20
12
11
10
0
20
17
10
50
30
50
mean=2.16
40
30
Somewhat Bad
50
40
16
10
Very Bad
mean=2.19
38
11
10
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Figure 3: Reported quality of public services in the community across all respondents.
Oil-region status is correlated with self-reported quality measures of public services (Figure 4). Consider, for example, crime and violence, for which the mean quality rating in the oil regions (2.87) is significantly higher than the quality rating in non-oil regions (2.60). Similarly, relatively large discrepancies are
found in the quality ratings of UPE, government health services and NAADS. By contrast, quality ratings
are somewhat worse in the oil regions for water access and infrastructure. In order to conclude, however,
that the quality of government services are, in fact, higher in oil districts, additional data would need to be
brought into the analysis (e.g., budget data, objective measures of health and education inputs and outputs).
21
40
37
29
30
25
24
20
20
21
21
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
40
30
30
27
13
Very Good
Somewhat Bad
27
21
20
15
17
15
14
10
0
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
30
30
20
Very Good
17
26
24
23
21
18
14
10
10
0
Percent
Percent
40
26
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
21
15
22
18
18
11
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
Very Good
20
Very Good
38
40
24
Somewhat Good
10
50
30
Just Okay
38
30
20
15
50
46
Percent
Percent
40
17
Very Bad
Roads/Bridges
50
29
20
10
Non-Oil
Oil
42
14
10
0
50
Non-Oil
Oil
Percent
Percent
50
13
51
39
40
30
27
23
20
Very Good
18
16
9
10
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
Very Good
40
37
33
30
26
24
19
20
21
15
17
10
0
50
Non-NRM
NRM
Percent
Percent
50
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
40
40
Non-NRM
NRM
37
30
25
16
Very Good
25
26
20
20
14
15
Very Bad
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
40
Somewhat Bad
32
Somewhat Good
Very Good
19
25
27
23
20
16
17
10
0
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Percent
Percent
40
25
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
22
22
18
20
14
14
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
Very Good
22
Very Good
33
20
23
Somewhat Good
10
50
30
Just Okay
30
13
10
0
17
37
30
15
50
43
Percent
Percent
40
13
10
Roads/Bridges
50
29
20
13
49
46
40
29
30
23
20
14
8
10
0
Very Good
10
12
4
Very Bad
Somewhat Bad
Just Okay
Somewhat Good
22
Very Good
24
g
od
ke
v.
1
1
30
5
4
2
1
ar
de
es
ss
ic
to
ne
si
1 1
go
/b
u
vt
.
G
et
tin
pr
go
ity
bs
ity
ac
od
fro
Jo
fo
om
in
ns
ap
t.
c
ov
es
at
io
of
ul
lg
op
ck
lp
is
su
ca
ia
ta
g
ec
nd
La
es
Lo
Sp
or
sh
Ta
x
er
ce
re
Fo
o
ib
en
ca
n/
br
ol
tu
r
pt
io
rit
y/
vi
lth
8 8
ru
cu
ea
10
or
10
e/
se
18
rim
16
ul
20
ri c
W
at
er
qu
In
fra alit
y
st
ru
ct
ur
Fa
rm Edu e
ca
in
g/
ag tion
ric
C
ul
rim
tu
H
e/
e a re
se
l
th
cu
ca
ri t
re
y/
C
vi
or
o
ru
l
e
pt
nc
io
e
n/
br
ib
er
y
Fo
Ta
od
xe
s
sh
or
t
L
a
Sp
an
ge
ec
d
is
ia
L o l p o su e
s
ca
pu
La l go lati
on
ck
vt
.c
s
of
ap
in
ac
fo
it
f
C
o m ro m y
m
go
od
Jo
vt
ity
.
bs
G
pr
/b
et
us
ic
tin
e
i
g
go nes s
s
od
de
s
v.
to
m
ar
ke
t
O
th
er
Percent
18
g/
ag
at
io
25
uc
16
Ed
ity
ct
ur
al
25
in
st
ru
qu
Percent
20
La
Fa
r
In
fra
W
at
er
15
4
4
24
19
15
15
2
4 4
Male
Female
21
20
20
18
17
Percent
16
17
15
10
9
8
9
6
4
5
4 4
3
3 3
2 3
3
2
0
1 1
1 1
op
O
th
er
go
lp
La
ck
of
ca
l
Lo
ec
ia
Sp
ns
vt
.c
ap
ac
in
fo
ity
fro
C
m
om
go
m
vt
od
.
Jo
ity
bs
pr
/b
G
ic
es
us
et
tin
in
es
g
go
s
de
od
v.
s
to
m
ar
ke
t
es
ul
at
io
su
is
nd
or
ta
g
La
Ta
xe
s
sh
d
Fo
o
tu
re
uc
a
in
tio
g/
n
ag
ric
ul
tu
C
re
rim
H
ea
e/
lth
se
ca
cu
re
rit
y/
vi
C
ol
or
en
ru
pt
ce
io
n/
br
ib
er
y
Fa
rm
Ed
al
qu
In
fra
W
at
er
st
ru
c
ity
5.2
In this section we describe citizens baseline political knowledge, news consumption, and attitudes towards
government performance. This baseline information serves an important benchmark against which to compare possible temporal changes in citizen attitudes and involvement in politics as oil extraction becomes
more salient.
Basic Political Knowledge
To measure baseline levels of basic political knowledge, survey respondents were asked to identify the
name of his/her (1) LC3 Councilor, (2) District chairperson, (3) Constituency MP, (4) the main opposition
candidate in the 2011 presidential election, and (5) the current Speaker of Parliament. Respondents were
also asked (6) how many terms the president of Uganda can serve in office according to the constitution. All
responses were coded as either correct or incorrect and then summed to yield a maximum possible political
knowledge score of 6. Results are shown in Figure 9. Only 7% failed to answer correctly a single question,
while 11% answered all six questions correctly. The mean number of correct responses was 3.33; a plurality
of respondents (51%) answered correctly at least four questions.
Consistent with results reported in past studies (e.g., Grossman, Humphreys and Sacramone-Lutz (2014)),
political knowledge in Uganda is subject to a wide gender gap. While 60% of men correctly answered at
least four questions (mean correct responses equals 3.67), only 40% of women in the sample did so (mean
2.96). We also find large gaps in political knowledge as a function of party identification, with NRM affiliates (mean 3.64) being, on average, more knowledgeable than non-NRM affiliates (mean 2.97). This
25
Non-Oil
Oil
24
25
25
20
16
17
16
15
11
10
10
Percent
Percent
mean=3.33
16 16
12
10 10
7
20
20
20
17 16
13
12
11
22
19
20
15
14
9
10
25
15
5
0
22
20
5
0
Male
Female
25
15
15
10
26
20
Percent
Percent
25
30
15 16
16
15
10
24 23
19
20
10
11
11
News Consumption
2627
9 10
4 5
2825
20
7 8
9 10
1411
63
60
41
40
23
15
11
20
5 5
12
19
fe
w
N
ev
fe tim
e
w
e
tim s a r
A
fe es yea
w
a
r
tim mo
es nt
a h
w
Ev ee
er k
y
da
y
A
60
43
40
1511
6 4
fe
w
N
ev
fe tim
e
w
e
tim s a r
A
y
e
e
fe
s
ar
w
a
tim m
es ont
a h
w
Ev ee
er k
y
da
y
A
Male
Female
63
20
13 15
6 4
fe
w
80
20
6
0
N
ev
fe tim
e
w
e
tim s a r
A
fe es yea
w
a
r
tim mo
es nt
a h
w
Ev ee
er k
y
da
y
Newspaper
Non-NRM
NRM
Percent
19
11 14 8
80
Percent
40
3 6
6 9
fe
w
N
ev
fe tim
e
w
e
tim s a r
A
y
e
e
fe
s
ar
w
a
tim m
es ont
a h
w
Ev ee
er k
y
da
y
A
47
20
2726
13
6
fe
w
60
46
40
Newspaper
Non-Oil
Oil
66
Percent
8 7
58
Newspaper
80
4 5
60
20
0
N
ev
fe tim
e
w
e
tim s a r
A
fe es yea
w
a
r
tim mo
es nt
a h
w
Ev ee
er k
y
da
y
40
5154
fe
w
N
ev
fe tim
e
w
e
tim s a r
A
fe es yea
w
a
r
tim mo
es nt
a h
w
Ev ee
er k
y
da
y
20
60
Male
Female
40
5350
Radio
80
Non-NRM
NRM
60
Percent
Percent
Radio
80
Non-Oil
Oil
Percent
Radio
80
27
Constituency MP
50
Local Government
50
47
50
mean=3.15
mean=2.54
40
mean=2.55
40
40
20
29
30
25
25
21
Percent
30
Percent
Percent
34
30
30
25
20
20
10
10
20
20
sa
tis
fie
at
is
fie
ts
Ve
r
ha
fie
d
tis
fie
is
sa
m
ew
So
td
di
ha
m
ew
So
Ve
r
Ve
r
sa
tis
ss
at
is
fie
at
is
fie
tis
fie
ts
ha
is
sa
td
So
m
ew
di
y
ha
So
m
ew
sa
tis
ss
at
is
fie
at
is
fie
ts
ha
Ve
r
tis
fie
is
sa
m
ew
So
td
ha
m
ew
So
Ve
r
di
ss
at
is
fie
d
Ve
r
10
fie
d
14
10
President
Non-Oil
Oil
44
31
28
30
President
57
Non-NRM
NRM
60
45
Percent
45
Percent
60
56
Male
Female
54
45
35
Percent
60
32
28
30
41
31
28
30
18
15
15
11
7
0
ti
sa
sfi
r
Ve
So
ed
me
a
wh
is
td
sa
fi
tis
So
me
a
wh
ati
ts
ed
sfi
ry
Ve
sa
d
fie
tis
ti
sa
e
sfi
is
yd
r
Ve
So
me
a
wh
a
iss
td
fie
tis
So
ati
ts
ed
sfi
ed
ry
Ve
sa
fi
tis
ti
sa
ry
Ve
30
25
23
23
15
ti
sa
dis
sfi
So
ed
me
ati
t
ha
s
dis
ed
sfi
So
ati
h
ew
s
at
ed
sfi
ati
s
ry
Ve
27
23
ry
Ve
ti
sa
dis
e
sfi
26
23
22
me
ati
t
ha
s
dis
e
sfi
So
h
ew
ti
sa
at
ed
sfi
ati
s
ry
Ve
21
15
0
ti
sa
sfi
r
Ve
So
me
wh
d
at
ati
i ss
ed
sfi
So
me
a
wh
ati
ts
ed
sfi
ry
Ve
sa
d
fie
tis
ati
ts
ed
sfi
ed
ry
Ve
sa
fi
tis
31
ti
sa
ry
Ve
27
23
22
19
ed
ed
sfi
dis
So
me
t
ha
sa
dis
fi
tis
So
h
ew
at
sa
d
fie
tis
ed
ry
Ve
sa
fi
tis
Local Government
60
Male
Female
45
39
37
31
28
30
24
24
23
17
30
30
26
24
24
22
19
17
15
ed
is
yd
ha
27
22
ed
Non-NRM
NRM
17
14
w
me
28
30
sfi
Percent
29
27
Male
Female
20
45
36
Percent
45
e
sfi
So
Local Government
60
22
ati
iss
15
ed
sfi
Non-Oil
Oil
30
td
Constituency MP
31
28
30
So
34
a
wh
45
Local Government
60
me
60
15
ed
sfi
dis
So
Non-NRM
NRM
20
Percent
me
a
wh
Percent
31
23
ry
Ve
45
Percent
Percent
45
26
Constituency MP
60
Non-Oil
Oil
30
12
6
Constituency MP
60
15
ed
is
yd
18
14
15
10
16
15
0
ti
sa
e
sfi
is
yd
r
Ve
So
me
wh
d
at
a
iss
fie
tis
So
me
a
wh
ati
ts
ed
sfi
ed
ry
Ve
sa
fi
tis
ti
sa
ry
Ve
ed
sfi
dis
So
me
a
wh
td
a
iss
fie
tis
So
w
me
ha
ati
ts
ed
sfi
ed
ry
Ve
sa
fi
tis
Figure 12: Satisfaction with public officials performance by oil status, party ID and gender.
Corruption perceptions
Trust in government officials is, at least in part, a function of the perceived level of corruption of the government officials or offices in question. Also, given that past studies have demonstrated a strong relationship
between oil revenues and corruption (Shaxson, 2007; Arezki and Brckner, 2011), tracking citizens perception of government corruption is of great importance for gauging whether a country is heading in the
direction of a looming resource curse. Respondents were thus asked to rate how surprised they would be
to hear a news story about corruption involving several different officials using a four-point scale: (1) Not
surprised at all; (2) Not too surprised; (3) Somewhat surprised; and (4) Very Surprised.
29
31
30
20
11
30
25
10
20
40
22
18
15
48
32
30
20
11
10
mean=3.22
50
Percent
Percent
30
20
Kingdom Officials
43
40
30
mean=3.16
38
45
40
10
Clan Leaders/Elders
50
18
17
20
mean=2.74
50
40
40
10
mean=2.72
50
Percent
40
Local Government
Percent
mean=3.20
50
Percent
Constituency MPs
12
7
10
t
t
e
e
ittl
ittl
alo
alo
al
a l rust
st
tru rust rust
T
s
i
t
T
D
Dis
t
t
e
e
ittl
alo littl
alo
a
a l rust
st
tru rust rust
T
s
i
t
T
D
Dis
Percent
33
30
24
20
12
10
20
16
19
33
13
10
40
20
16
19
38
22
21
rus
ist
Dis
e
e
ot
ittl
ittl
al
al
al
st
st
st
Tru
tru
Tru
10 7
e
le
ot
lot
ittl
litt
al
ta
al
st
ta
st
rus
tru
us
u
T
r
r
s
t
i
T
D
Dis
Male
Female
16
39 41
40
30
17 17
20
20
24 26
17
10
ot
al
29
50
27
30
13
Constituency MP
10
20
60
42
45
32
30
10
Non-NRM
NRM
50
42
21
20
55
Male
Female
40
Constituency MP
35
30
13
60
Percent
Percent
40
14
e
le
ot
lot
ittl
litt
al
ta
al
st
ta
st
rus
tru
us
u
T
r
r
s
t
i
T
D
Dis
Constituency MP
50
28
e
e
ot
ot
ittl
ittl
al
al
al
al
st
st
st
st
tru
Tru
tru
Tru
s
i
Dis
D
Non-Oil
Oil
33
30
20
60
50
39
40
10
60
Non-NRM
NRM
50
46
40
President
59
Percent
60
Percent
Non-Oil
Oil
50
Percent
President
60
60
rus
i st
ot
al
Dis
e
e
ot
ittl
ittl
al
al
al
st
st
st
Tru
tru
Tru
0
Dis
e
e
ot
lot
ittl
ittl
al
ta
al
al
st
st
st
Tru
tru
Tru
s
i
D
s
tru
Figure 14: Trust in the President and constituency MPs by our three stratification variables.
30
Our findings, presented below in Figure 15 are consistent with political trust attitudes reported above:
the President is perceived to be less corrupt than the average MPs across all stratification categories: gender,
party affiliation and oil-status residence. We wish to note the perception of corruption among MPs for nonNRM affiliates: just over 50% of those identifying with the opposition would not be surprised at all or not
too surprised to hear about corruption allegation involving their incumbent constituency MP.
60
Percent
51
45
23
13
15
14
12 11
60
46
45
30
27
13
15
ll
d
d
d
ta
ise
ise
ise
d a urpr urpr urpr
e
s
s
s
s
ri
oo what Very
up
t s Not t
me
No
So
15
37
26
17
Percent
Percent
45
15
45
30
24
15
ll
d
d
d
ta
i se
i se
ise
d a urpr urpr urpr
e
s
s
s
s
ri
oo what Very
up
t s Not t
me
No
So
45
36
19
13
ll
d
d
d
ta
ise
ise
ise
d a urpr urpr urpr
e
s
s
s
s
ri
oo what Very
up
t s Not t
me
No
So
15
23
15
14
Male
Female
75
49
27
11 13
MP
60
30
12 14
Non-NRM
NRM
75
57
20
53
15
ll
d
d
d
ta
ise
i se
ise
d a urpr urpr urpr
e
s
s
s
s
ri
oo what Very
up
t s Not t
me
No
So
Non-Oil
Oil
15
58
60
MP
60
30
14
MP
75
17
Male
Female
75
64
Percent
30
Non-NRM
NRM
75
68
President
Percent
Non-Oil
Oil
75
Percent
President
60
48
45
30
17
ll
d
d
d
ta
ise
i se
ise
d a urpr urpr urpr
e
s
s
s
s
ri
oo what Very
up
t s Not t
me
No
So
15
39
24
21
20
17
17 15
ll
d
d
d
ta
i se
i se
ise
d a urpr urpr urpr
e
s
s
s
s
ri
oo what Very
up
t s Not t
me
No
So
Figure 15: Perceptions of corruption by proximity to oil, gender, and party identification.
We find that Ugandans have little trust in parliaments ability to check the power of the executive; i.e.,
act independently to protect against possible abuses of government power (Figure 16). Noticeably, a full
59% of Ugandans at least weakly agrees that Parliament serves as a rubber stamp for government (topleft cell), with over one-third of our sample strongly agreeing with this statement. This finding is further
corroborated by the fact that over 40% of Ugandans are not satisfied with the way democracy works in
their country (Figure 17). Combined with low satisfaction with MP job performance described above, it
is clear that the Ugandan parliament has a rather low standing in the eyes of the electorate. This finding
has important implications to the management of the oil sector: voters, at least at baseline, do not expect
parliament to help ensure that the revenues generated by the recent oil discoveries would not be abused.
50
50
36
Non-Oil
Oil
41
40
34
30
25
Percent
Percent
40
23
20
16
30
26
24
21
20
20
16
10
17
10
0
a
on
Str
gly
Dis
e
gre
a
We
kly
a
Dis
e
gre
e
g re
a
We
A
kly
on
Str
gly
e
g re
0
ag
Str
ly
ng
Dis
ree
We
Agreement by Party ID
50
Dis
ag
ree
a
We
kly
re
Ag
e
on
Str
gly
Ag
re e
Agreement by Gender
50
Non-NRM
NRM
40
ly
ak
39
40
36
36
Male
Female
26
25
24
Percent
Percent
33
30
20
19
20
30
25
25
22
18
20
15
14
10
10
0
on
Str
gly
24
a
Dis
g re
e
We
ly
ak
a
Dis
g re
g re
We
ly A
ak
g re
on
Str
ag
A
gly
on
Str
gly
Dis
ree
a
We
kly
Dis
ag
ree
gre
ly A
ak
We
g re
g
on
Str
ly A
Figure 16: Confidence in parliaments ability to fulfill its statutory task of checking the power of the executive .
32
50
50
27
20
20
15
10
38
40
31
30
Percent
Percent
40
Non-Oil
Oil
32
29
30
17
16
12
10
0
aD
rac
oc
t
No
em
ti
Sa
ot
sfi
ed
At
All
ed
t
No
o
To
Sa
fi
tis
So
w
me
ha
ati
tS
sfi
ed
ry
Ve
ti
Sa
ed
sfi
0
t
No
ad
oc
em
rac
y
ed
No
a
tS
Satisfaction by gender
50
23
22
20
fi
tis
At
All
t
No
o
To
Sa
d
fie
tis
So
w
me
ha
ati
tS
ed
sfi
40
29
25
21
20
20
16
29
30
25
20
18
20
16
13
12
10
10
0
de
mo
y
ra c
No
ati
tS
sfi
ll
tA
dA
N
o
To
ot
34
34
Percent
Percent
d
fie
tis
Non-NRM
NRM
34
30
30
Sa
Satisfaction by party ID
50
Male
Female
40
a
ot
ry
Ve
Sa
d
fie
tis
So
h
ew
at
ti
Sa
d
fie
ry
Ve
ed
sfi
ati
a
ot
de
mo
y
rac
No
ed
a
tS
fi
tis
At
All
N
o
To
ot
Sa
d
fie
tis
So
h
ew
at
Sa
d
fie
tis
ry
Ve
Sa
d
fie
tis
Figure 17: Satisfaction with democracy in Uganda by oil proximity, gender, and party identification.
take to try to influence how things are done in Uganda.
Regarding an issue
33
Oil
Nonoil
Oil
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
NRM
NonNRM
NRM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Gender
Male
Female
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Figure 18: Types of actions citizens take (at least sometimes) to influence how things are done in Uganda.
We now turn to examine one of the key determinants of political participation: political efficacy (Figure 19). First, Ugandans, in general, feel politically efficacious: i.e., they report a relatively high ability to
influence the actions of key political leaders. Second, consistent with theories of decentralization, Ugandans
seem more confident in their ability to influence their MP and district officials as compared to influencing
President Museveni. Lastly, consistent with the gender gap in participation, there exists also a large gender
gap in political efficacy; i.e., men are significantly more likely to report that they feel that they can influence
the actions of their leaders (bottom panel).
34
Oil
Nonoil
Oil
Constituency MP
Clan leaders
President
Kingdom officials
0.3
District chairperson
0.4
0.5
0.6
NRM
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.9
NonNRM
NRM
Constituency MP
Clan leaders
President
Kingdom officials
0.3
District chairperson
0.4
0.5
0.6
Gender
Male
Female
Constituency MP
Clan leaders
President
Kingdom officials
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Share respondents
Figure 19: Political efficacy: citizens perceptions of their ability to influence the actions of political actors.
35
In this section we examine baseline level of knowledge about oil in Uganda as well as the publics expectations regarding the possible benefits of oil at both the household and the national level. In light of the goals
stated in Section 4, the questions in this section have been designed explicitly to gauge citizens level of
engagement on oil issues and how such engagement might depend on individual-level characteristics. We
are especially interested in examining differences in levels of engagement between residents of oil and nonoil regions, while we continue nonetheless to explore other conditioning factors such as gender and party
identification.
6.1
Sampled respondents were asked a battery of 13 factual questions about oil in Uganda. We first provide the
verbatim of each question (including the share of correct responses in red), followed by the distribution of
correct responses across the study sample (see Figure 20).
1. When was oil discovered in Uganda?
2. Where in Uganda was oil discovered?
3. Are you living in an oil area?
2%
60%
24%
7%
5. How many billion barrels of oil have been discovered in Uganda so far?
6. How many years will the oil last once commercial production starts?
2%
13%
7. Only international companies and no Ugandan companies are involved in producing oil, TRUE
or FALSE? 61%
8. The oil area is expected to get more money from oil than other areas in the country, TRUE
or FALSE? 73%
9. The government has already passed laws on how to govern the oil sector, TRUE or FALSE?
61%
10. A refinery will be built in Uganda to process some of the oil, TRUE or FALSE? 68%
11. A pipeline will be built in Uganda to transport some of the oil, TRUE or FALSE? 65%
12. The government is required by law to compensate fully people whose land has been taken
away to allow for oil production, TRUE or FALSE? 84%
13. About how much money you think the government of Uganda will get once commercial oil production
starts? 5%
Generally Ugandans are still uninformed about oil in Uganda: only about 1% of those surveyed were
able to answer 9 or more questions correctly, while 6% of respondents did not get any questions right. The
median number of correct responses was 6. As of late 2014, a majority of Ugandans know that oil was
discovered somewhere in the west, that only international companies are involved in its production, that oil
36
Oil Knowledge
Overall (full sample)
25
25
Median=6
19
20
1919 19
20
15
12
13
Percent
Percent
20
Non-Oil
Oil
19
11
10
6
14
10
5
4 44
5
01
9 10+
Knowledge by Gender
25
Male
Female
21
1919
20
6
5
Knowledge by Party ID
Non-NRM
NRM
12
10
9 10+
0
25
12
8
7
16
15
20 20
19 19
20
15
14
Percent
Percent
17
15
13
12
11
9
10
6
5
0
44
66
10
5
13
14
13
10
14
15
6 66
45
3
11
9 10+
9 10+
Sample
Nonoil
Oil
0.0
0.9
Results reported in Figure 22 suggest that citizens vastly overstate the expected impact of oil revenues on
the national budget. A third of Ugandans expect the increase in the budget to be at least 80% with the median
response being an expected budget increase of 60%. This is about three-times the size of conservative
estimates of the impact of oil on the national budget (10-20%). Figure 23 suggests that the expectations
regarding the impact of oil on the total national budget are somewhat higher in the oil region as compared
to the non-oil region.
Recall that the academic literature suggests that the resource curse is, at least partly, a result of a combination of citizens low information and unrealistic high expectations. The results presented in this report
offer some reasons to be concerned, since not only do citizens have low levels of knowledge regarding
Ugandas expected oil revenue, they also vastly exaggerate the impact of the oil on the government coffers.
24
Share Respondents
20
16
15
15
10
14
4
3
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Female
Male
Sample
NRM
NonNRM
Oil
Nonoil
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
39
69
70
and (3) allocation between oil and non-oil regions. Since many Ugandans, especially in rural areas, suffer
from low numeracy skills, all allocation preferences were conducted using tokens that were placed on graphical illustrations that represented concepts such as savings and investment. Examples of some of the survey
illustrations are presented in the appendix.
First, we presented respondents with 20 tokens that represented the additional oil revenue to the national
budget and asked them to distribute these tokens between (1) saving for the future, (2) investment in human
and physical capital, and (3) spending to increase household consumption. Once citizens made their initial
allocation they further were able to divide the tokens within sub-categories. For example investment had
five sub-categories, such as social services (health and education), infrastructure, job training, etc.
Results broken down by our stratification variables are presented in Figure 24. We find that Ugandans
express a strong preference to use most of the oil revenue for investment (around 67 percent of revenue),
followed by spending (19 percent of oil revenue) and saving (14 percent). Within investment, Ugandans
have a rather strong preference for improvements in social services, such as health and education, followed
by infrastructure. Figure 24 also suggests relative small differences in preferences as a function of gender,
party identification and oil-region residence.
In our second allocation exercise, respondents were asked to express their preference regarding the
distribution of oil revenues across national government, local government, and citizens directly. We find
that citizens opted mostly to a close to equal allocation, with somewhat higher allocation to the central
government (37 percent) as compared to local governments (29 percent of oil revenue). Interestingly, though
not currently discussed seriously as a policy choice, citizens expressed a preference to directly distribute to
citizens about third of the total oil revenue (see Figure 25). We do not find that respondents gender, party
identification or oil-region status had affected the distribution preferences across government branches.
Finally, subjects were asked how they would divide oil revenue between oil and non-oil areas. This
preference is extremely important to gauge over time, since much of the conflict around oil revenues is
related to notions of fairness in the distribution of oil revenues across oil and non-oil regions. Results of this
allocation exercise is presented in Figure 26. First, we find that both oil and non-oil residents believe that the
oil region should get a slightly larger share of the oil revenue. Second, we find that oil and non-oil residents
have divergent reviews regarding what constitutes a fair allocation. Whereas oil residents suggest a 57-43%
split, non-oil residents believe that a 53-47% split constitutes a fair optimal allocation, on average.
40
Invest in infrastructure
Invest in Agriculture
Invest in environment
Oil
Nonoil
Other
0
Oil
10
15
20
25
Percent allocation
Invest in infrastructure
Invest in Agriculture
Invest in environment
NRM
NonNRM
Other
NRM
10
15
20
25
Percent allocation
Percent Allocation
Invest in infrastructure
Invest in Agriculture
Invest in environment
Gender
Male
Other
0
Female
10
15
Percent allocation
41
20
25
Sample
Local government
Direct to citizens
Central government
20
25
30
35
Figure 25: Respondents mean allocation of oil revenue across branches of government
Mean allocation
40
Allocation
Nonoil district
30
Oil district
20
10
Nonoil
Oil
42
40
Percent
Percent
Full Sample
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
29
8
1
No
tb
ig
at
all
No
t to
big
e
om
wh
at
big
ry
Ve
big
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
No
56
34
18
9
ig
tb
a
at
ll
t
No
Percent
Percent
t
No
69
54
37
23
big
7
0
ll
ta
No
t to
big
So
w
me
ha
big
too
big
So
h
ew
at
big
ry
Ve
big
by Gender
Non-NRM
NRM
by Party ID
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
75
Non-Oil
Oil
ry
Ve
big
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
t
No
Male
Female
60
64
31
28
11
1
big
ll
ta
No
t to
big
So
w
me
ha
tb
ig
ry
Ve
big
Figure 27: Expected benefits from oil production for Uganda as a whole
We then move to explore in more depth Ugandans expectation of the actual benefits of the recent oil
discoveries. Figure 29 provides information on the share of respondents that think that some possible benefit
43
Percent
Percent
Full Sample
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
39
24
24
13
No
tb
ig
a
at
ll
No
t to
ig
ob
So
me
wh
ig
tb
ig
yb
r
Ve
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
t
No
Non-Oil
Oil
44
32
12
big
at
all
No
39
38
29
27
21
ig
at
Percent
Percent
b
ot
18
11
all
t
No
too
big
So
w
me
ha
tb
t to
ob
ig
So
w
me
ha
tb
ig
21
ry
Ve
big
by Gender
Non-NRM
NRM
15
26
16
by Party ID
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
26
23
ig
ry
Ve
big
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
N
b
ot
Male
Female
39
38
28
28
21
20
13
ig
at
13
all
t
No
too
big
So
w
me
ha
tb
ig
ry
Ve
big
Figure 28: Expected benefits from oil production for individual respondent households.
x will be actually realized for people in Uganda once oil production takes place. This figure reinforces our
finding regarding the heightened, perhaps unrealistic, expectations of Ugandans at baseline. Figure 30
provides more nuanced information as it provides information on what Ugandans view as the biggest benefit
from oil that will actually be realized. As the figure makes clear, cheaper fuel is the most expected benefit
by a plurality of Ugandans, followed by jobs with oil sector companies.
44
Better roads/bridges
Cheaper fuel
Lower taxes
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Share population
45
0.8
0.9
1.0
10
15
20
25
46
30
Environmental damage
Loss of livelihood
Inward migration
oil
Nonoil
Oil
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Figure 31: Share of Ugandans expressing concerns regarding negative oil impact on household
47
10
13
13
17
Percent
Percent
Full Sample
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
13
25
Non-Oil
Oil
20
17
15
15
10
5
t
r
flic ing tion od ge tion tion he
on rabb nsa eliho ama rrup rrup Ot
c
v
D
e
nic d g p f Li tal . co . co
Eth Lan Comss o men govt govt
ate Lo iron ocal ntral
v L e
qu
de
C
En
Ina
23
15
10
5
19
13
8
11
14 14 13
16
10
8
Gender
30
18
14
14 15
26
20
12
Percent
Percent
Non-NRM
NRM
25
14
Party ID
30
18
13
15
12
19
20
15
11 11
10
5
Male
Female
25
13
14
18 17 17
14 13
12 12 13
3 5
Figure 32: Greatest concern regarding possible negative oil impact (household)
We have seen that citizens have expressed both positive and negative expectations regarding the effect
of oil once produced. In order to get a better sense of how the pros and cons are weighted against each other
we have asked our respondents the following questions:
If you consider both the possible benefits of oil and the possible problems brought by
oil, do you think the overall impact of oil for Uganda will be positive or negative?
We present Ugandans overall assessment of the impact of oil for Uganda in Figure 33. Results suggest
that the vast majority of Ugandans, at least at baseline, expect the positive effects of oil to outweigh its
negative effect. This finding further underscores our concern from heightened, likely unrealistic explications
of the benefits of oil for both Uganda and citizens own households.
6.2
While many of the issues surrounding oil and oil governance concern all citizens in Uganda, there are
some topics of particular relevance to respondents in the oil region. While many elements thus far in this
report have been delivered in terms of respondents oil region status, additional questions directly solely at
citizens living in oil areas were also enumerated in the field. These questions cover a variety of important
48
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
2
40
35
20
e
yN
r
Ve
ga
me
e
tiv
wh
N
at
eg
So
by Party ID
Non-NRM
NRM
38
Percent
Percent
50
47
36
30
20
1
0
r
Ve
me
ve
t
ha
po
ive
ive
i ve
sit
sit
sit
po
Po
y
y
r
r
Ve
Ve
49
Male
Female
40
43
ga
e
tiv
ew
m
So
ha
20
e
tN
ga
So
e
tiv
me
wh
p
at
12
10
os
itiv
r
Ve
o
yp
41 43
30
13
10
e
yN
ati
by Gender
55
40
10
9
1
So
50
37
30
10
t
e
e
e
i ve
ec
tiv
tiv
itiv
sit
Eff
ga
ga
os
o
Po
Ne
Ne
tP
N
y
t
r
a
y
r
a
Ve
wh
Ve
wh
me
me
So
So
53
50
Non-Oil
Oil
50
42
Percent
Percent
Full Sample
e
ive
itiv
sit
os
P
ry
Ve
e
yN
r
Ve
ga
m
So
e
tiv
ew
ha
e
tN
ga
So
e
tiv
me
wh
7
1
p
at
itiv
os
r
Ve
o
yp
e
ive
itiv
sit
os
P
ry
Ve
49
Party ID
50
50
40
Non-NRM
NRM
40
40
38
35
20
34
33 33
21
20
17
39
36
29
30
Male
Female
40
Percent
Percent
Percent
33
30
Gender
50
30
19
20
16
15
10
10
10
10
5
3
Figure 34: Confidence in the governments will and ability to manage the oil sector for the communitys benefit.
government is addressing their communitys concerns, against 39 percent that agree that their MP addresses
their concerns about the oil sector.
Party ID
50
50
40
40
Gender
50
Non-NRM
NRM
Male
Female
40
35
33
27
20
20
30
Percent
30
33
31
Percent
Percent
32
25
23
20 20
20
10
6
4
17
10
26
15
14
10
28
20 20
20
17
16
30
Figure 35: Respondents assessment of how well the national government addresses community concerns about the
oil sector.
50
Party ID
50
50
40
Gender
50
Non-NRM
NRM
38
40
40
Male
Female
38
36
33
20
19
20
19
30
23
20
10
Percent
30
Percent
Percent
31
19
20 20 20
10
e
e
e
e
w
no
gre gre gre gre
isa Disa kly A gly A on't k
D
a
n
y
y
D
o
kl We
gl
Str
on Wea
Str
24
22
20
20
18
17
e
e
e
e
w
no
gre gre gre gre
isa Disa kly A gly A on't k
D
a
n
y
y
D
o
kl We
gl
Str
on Wea
Str
6
4
19
16
10
30
e
e
e
e
w
no
gre gre gre gre
isa Disa kly A gly A on't k
D
a
n
y
y
D
o
kl We
gl
Str
on Wea
Str
Figure 36: Respondents assessment of the extent to which their members of parliament consult community members
in the oil districts for their views about the oil sector.
51
50
50
30
27
20
20
32
30
10
10
No
at
all
ig
ig
ig
o b hat b ery b
t to
V
ew
No
m
So
No
25
17
ig
tb
at
19
20
Percent
Percent
30
ig
at
all
t
No
big
big
big
ry
at
too
Ve
wh
me
o
S
t
No
big
at
No
18 19
14
42
ig
at
all
t
No
38
40
30 30
30
20
20
12
0
N
31
10
ig
big
big
tb
ry
too wha
Ve
me
o
S
ig
big y big
ob
r
at
t to ewh
Ve
m
So
Male
Female
50
28
20
b
ot
20 20
14
Gender (Future)
40 40
30
all
60
40
10
17
Non-NRM
NRM
11
10
20
15
ig
ig
ig
o b h a t b e ry b
t to
V
w
No ome
S
50
40
30
30
24
Party ID (Future)
50
36
30
all
60
40
19 20
39
40
10
b
ot
31
20
16
ig
tb
40
40
Male
Female
50
Percent
37
40
Gender (Present)
60
Non-NRM
NRM
Percent
60
Percent
Percent
0
N
b
ot
ig
at
17
10
all
No
ig
big y big
ob
r
at
t to ewh
Ve
m
o
S
52
Percent
50
40
30
20
16
11
10
10
ct
ur
ou
oa
om
pe
ds
as
h
/In
fra
ha
st
ru
nd
in
tra
b
Jo
O
th
er
ts
g
in
ic
in
cl
ns
at
io
ea
lth
fo
r
Sc
h
la
oo
ls
nd
Figure 38: The biggest benefit communities should expect from oil companies operating nearby.
expectation, since one concern may be that accountability relations between Ugandans and their elected
representatives would weaken if constituents begin shifting expectations away from government and towards
foreign private firms.
Party ID
70
70
59
60
Gender
70
Non-NRM
NRM
Male
Female
62
60
60
59 60
54
40
30
50
Percent
50
Percent
Percent
50
40
30
23
19
20
19
20
10
0
y
er
er
er
all
ett
ett
ett
qu
ob
ob
ob
d
d
d
oe
l
l
l
il
il
il
ld
l
i
w
w
w
t
w
er
ies men
th
ith
an
Bo
n
Ne
mp over
co
l
G
i
O
30
20
16
18
10
3
40
20
20
17
20
18
10
3
y
er
er
er
all
ett
ett
ett
qu
ob
ob
ob
d
d
d
oe
l
l
l
il
il
il
ld
l
i
w
w
w
t
w
er
ies men
th
ith
an
Bo
n
Ne
mp over
co
l
G
i
O
y
er
er
er
all
ett
ett
ett
qu
ob
ob
ob
d
d
d
oe
l
l
l
il
il
il
ld
l
i
w
w
w
t
w
er
ies men
th
ith
an
Bo
n
Ne
mp over
co
l
G
i
O
Figure 39: Comparing oil companies and the national government in who will do a better job of addressing concerns
related to development in their communities.
53
Thus far our comparisons of responses in oil and non-oil regions have revealed a number of interesting differences. For example, Ugandans in the oil region show stronger support for the NRM, and generally report
higher levels of trust in and satisfaction with the President. In addition, oil-region residents have somewhat
different policy priorities and are more politically active than constituents in non-oil areas. Specific to oil,
Ugandans in the oil regions have greater knowledge of oil related issues and higher expectations regarding
the impact of oil on the size of the national budget. They also show a preference for allocating a larger share
of oil revenue to the oil region and, moreover, have higher expectation of receiving future benefits from oil
companies. They generally trust the national government to manage the oil sector effectively.
Importantly, though results presented in Section 5 and Section 6 allow us to compare attitudes and
behavior as a function of oil-region status, they do not allow us to conclude that these differences are due to
the oil discovery, rather than to some other factor. In this section we exploit the physical location of survey
respondents to further unpack public opinion and attitudes of ordinary Ugandans as a function of proximity
to oil. As described in Section 4, we are interested in exploring whether some of the systematic differences
shown in Section 5 between oil and non-oil residents are in fact caused by the oil discovery.
One difficulty in generating plausible comparisons between average attitudes in the oil and non-oil
regions is the fact that both regions differ on a number of other characteristics. As our survey confirms, at
least parts of the oil region are a stronghold of the NRM and hence attitudes and responses about political
behavior might be affected by party affiliation instead of exposure to the oil sector. Similarly, when we
supplement our survey with information from the 2002 census, villages in the oil region that were sampled
in our survey report, on average, lower literacy rates, lower education levels, a larger share of the population
engaging in agriculture, and worse access to schools and health facilities. When trying to discern meaningful
differences in attitudes across the oil/non-oil divide, we run the danger of misattributing such differences to
the presence of oil. To address this concern we have to move beyond mere descriptive statistics and employ
statistical adjustment methods to generate meaningful comparisons.
We begin by using matching techniques to pre-process the survey data. The general idea of matching
is to find units from the non-oil region (the control group) that are as similar as possible to the oil region
(treated units), on observable characteristics. Comparisons based on this purposefully selected sample of
cases will be more plausible, because large differences in, for example, support for President Museveni or
socio-economics, will be cancelled out. To do so, we would ideally like to use individual-level data for our
respondents from a time period before oil was discovered in Uganda. Then we could pair similar individuals
from the oil and non-oil regions. Given that our survey only provides information on individual-level characteristics in 2014 though, we cannot directly match our respondents on information from our survey. As
a consequence, we have to rely on other data sources unrelated to our public opinion survey. Specifically,
we use information from the 2002 Ugandan census and election returns from the 2006 presidential election
that we can match to our respondents villages and parishes of residence. While not providing us with information at the individual-level, these data allow us to determine how different villages in the oil and non-oil
regions were before oil was discovered in Uganda and, subsequently, to match similar villages across the oil
and non-oil regions.
54
The specific matching approach we opt for, entropy-balance matching (Hainmueller, 2012), constructs
comparisons of treated and control units by calculating weights for observations from the non-oil regions.
This re-weighting of observations is designed to improve the balance of observable characteristics from the
2002 census and the 2006 presidential election.12 In practice this means we take our original survey data
and re-weight individuals, based on their village characteristics, such that villages in the non-oil region that
are most similar to the oil region are weighed more heavily when constructing comparisons.
After this initial step of pre-processing the data, we use standard regression techniques to estimate the
effect of being in an oil region on a number of key survey measures. Using regression allows us to control
for any remaining differences between respondents and should provide us with plausible counterfactuals for
the oil/non-oil comparison.13 Note in order to facilitate the analysis we generally created binary variables
for our outcome measures. As such the variables presented in the following tables are not exactly identical
to ones presented earlier in the report. For example, the average response for the variable Satisfaction
President (0.78), represents the share of survey respondents who indicated that they are at least somewhat
satisfied with the presidents performance. Tables 1 and 2 provide an overview of all the outcomes we
analyze in more detail in this section.
12 Results are similar when using other matching techniques. We match on a number of village characteristics from the 2002
census: population size, average age, share of the male population, literacy, education levels, unemployment, share of agriculture,
share of manufacturing, share of services, religious and ethnic fractionalization, the share of President Musevenis co-ethnics,
share of owner-occupied housing, the average number of sleeping rooms, the share of households with a thatched roof, the share
of households with an earth floor, land tenure arrangements, distance to health facilities, schools and public water sources, asset
ownership of households. We also match on the share of the population voting for President Museveni in the 2006 election. Balance
statistics pre- and post-matching are reported in the Appendix.
13 We use standard ordinary least squares estimation. We control for all variables used in the matching procedure and cluster
standard errors at the constituency level.
55
Average
0.78
0.52
0.59
0.61
0.82
0.65
0.71
0.73
0.57
0.63
0.46
0.11
0.37
0.14
0.10
0.06
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.65
0.59
5.02
6.30
55.13
35.13
29.54
35.33
0.48
0.66
0.67
0.51
0.03
0.37
0.79
0.76
0.79
0.49
0.21
0.22
0.57
0.75
0.81
0.81
0.56
56
Outcome
Average
Corruption Perception
Surprised about corruption, President
Surprised about corruption, MPs
Surprised about corruption, Local
Surprised about corruption, Clan
Surprised about corruption, Kingdom
0.72
0.63
0.58
0.72
0.63
1.13
0.50
0.62
0.46
0.22
0.91
0.57
0.03
0.91
0.62
0.45
0.25
0.12
0.03
0.58
0.77
0.74
0.61
0.61
0.45
0.47
0.34
0.51
0.36
0.02
Average
Outcome
Average
0.79
0.84
0.90
0.72
0.88
0.88
0.52
0.78
0.74
0.90
0.91
0.95
Expected Benefits HH
Lower taxes
Jobs with government
Jobs with oil sector
Jobs non-oil sector
Selling good to oil companies
Cheaper fuel
Handouts to citizens
Higher land values
Cheaper electricity
Better government schools
Better government health care
Better roads
0.71
0.56
0.60
0.51
0.66
0.82
0.43
0.55
0.65
0.85
0.87
0.90
Concerns Uganda
Land grabbing
Land confiscation / inadequate compensation
Loss of livelihood
Environmental damage
Crime
Inward migration
Household conflict
Ethnic conflict
Conflict between oil and non-oil regions
Conflict between oil-region and government
Local government corruption
Central government corruption
0.51
0.51
0.55
0.64
0.49
0.50
0.39
0.51
0.51
0.53
0.71
0.68
Concerns HH
Land grabbing
Land confiscation / inadequate compensation
Loss of livelihood
Environmental damage
Crime
Inward migration
Household conflict
Ethnic conflict
Conflict between oil and non-oil regions
Conflict between oil-region and government
Local government corruption
Central government corruption
0.37
0.36
0.44
0.52
0.35
0.36
0.32
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.60
0.62
Tables 3, 4, and 5 provide a summary of the main findings. Starting with Table 3, we search for differences in levels of satisfaction with and trust in public officials, corruption perceptions, the willingness to
take political action, and overall judgments of efficacy and access. First, we find little evidence of systematic
differences in attitudes between the oil and non-oil regions with respect to satisfaction measures. Matched
respondents reported no meaningful differences in average levels of satisfaction with the president, members
of parliament, or the democratic process. In other words, differences in satisfaction with the performance
of elected officials reported in Section 5 all but disappear after the matching procedure that accounts for the
Presidents baseline support in the oil region.
Similarly, when it comes to expressing trust, we find that oil region residents are, in contrast to simple
differences in means reported in Section 5, less likely to report that they trust the president or kingdom
officials. These differences though are sensitive to the particular matching approach and vanish in alternative
specifications. Corruption perceptions vary across oil and non-oil regions and are similar to the findings
in Section 5: individuals in the oil regions are less likely to expect to hear corruption allegation against
members of parliament or local officials. This might support the notion that residents of the oil region give
government officials at least momentarily, the benefit of the doubt when it comes to governance issue.
Second, in terms of both general political engagement and perceptions of being able to influence political leaders, there are no systematic differences between the oil and non-oil regions, after accounting for
differences in village characteristics. Although we do find that respondents in the oil region are more likely
57
to have signed a petition in the past, this difference is sensitive to alternative matching procedures.
Table 3: Differences between oil and non-oil regions, general outcomes
Outcome
Satisfaction & Trust
Satisfaction President
Satisfaction MPs
Satisfaction Local
Satisfaction Democracy
Trust President
Trust MPs
Trust Local
Trust Clan
Trust Kingdom
Effect
Outcome
Effect
+
+
Corruption Perception
Surprised about corruption, President
Surprised about corruption, MPs
Surprised about corruption, Local
Surprised about corruption, Clan
Surprised about corruption, Kingdom
Table 4 summarizes differences between oil and non-oil regions for survey questions that focus more
narrowly on oil-related issues. As with the descriptive statistics in Section 6, even after matching and
controlling for available observable characteristics of respondents, citizens in the oil region demonstrate
higher levels of knowledge about oil. This higher level of awareness is again paired with an increased
demand for a larger share of oil revenue to be allocated to the oil regions. Respondents in the oil region are
also much less likely to report that it is unfair that the oil regions would receive additional revenue. Despite
this clear preference for an increased flow of government revenues, citizens in the oil region are not generally
optimistic about the general benefits of the oil for Uganda as a whole, or their household specifically, after
we correct for baseline differences in other variables.
While there where no significant differences in the level of general political engagement between oil
and non-oil regions, that is not the case for activities specifically focused on oil. We find that for a number
of distinct activities, respondents in the oil region are far less likely to become politically active with regard
to the issue of oil: Respondents report less willingness to seek information about the presidents handling of
the oil sector or information about local officials; respondents are less likely to attend rallies in support of
policies dealing with the management of the oil sector; they are also less willing to attend community meetings arranged by oil companies or contact their community leaders; respondents were also less interested in
signing up for our 123inform service that would have provided them with additional information about oil in
58
the future. In short, we find a robust and consistent finding that though residents of oil districts know more
about oil and expect to receive a larger share of future revenues, they are at the same time significantly less
likely to act in ways that might seem confrontational. In line with our prior findings, for the evaluation of
public officials management of the oil sector, individuals in the oil region report higher levels of satisfaction
with the president than individuals in the non-oil region, with no discernible difference in the satisfaction
with members of parliament.
Table 4: Differences between oil and non-oil regions, oil-specific outcomes
Outcome
Knowledge & Expectations
Oil Knowledge
Expected budget increase due to oil
Extra revenue for oil-region
Extra revenue to national government
Extra revenue to local government
Extra revenue to citizens
Unfair that oil region gets more revenue
Royalties for oil region
Satisfaction with management of oil, President
Satisfaction with management of oil, MPs
Effect
Outcome
Knowledge & Expectations
Your tribe is receiving an unfair share
Oil belongs to oil region
Benefits to Uganda
Benefits to the household
Benefits index, after information
Benefits to Uganda, after information
Benefits to household, after information
Impact oil Uganda
Impact oil household
Feeling more attached to own ethnic group
+
+
+
+
Effect
Table 5 shows differences between oil and non-oil regions with respect to expected benefits and concerns
about oil in Uganda. The upper part of Table 5 shows that residents of the oil region do have clearer
expectations about receiving some benefits related to oil. They are more likely to expect jobs with the oil
sector, direct handouts, access to cheaper electricity, better schools and government health care for Uganda
as whole. Respondents in the oil region are more sanguine about expected benefits for their own household.
While they expect to be able to sell goods to oil companies and to receive direct handouts individually, they
are somewhat less likely to expect lower taxes, cheaper fuel, or government jobs for themselves.
These expectations are paired with clear concerns in the oil region. Individuals from villages in the oil
region are significantly more likely to express worries about land grabbing, crime, migration, conflict, and
inadequate compensation for land confiscation for Uganda as whole and for their household specifically.
These regressions results line up with the descriptive findings from Section 6.
59
Table 5: Differences between oil and non-oil regions, expected benefits and concerns
Outcome
Expected Benefits Uganda
Lower taxes
Jobs with government
Jobs with oil sector
Jobs non-oil sector
Selling good to oil companies
Cheaper fuel
Handouts to citizens
Higher land values
Cheaper electricity
Better government schools
Better government health care
Better roads
Effect
+
+
+
+
Outcome
Expected Benefits HH
Lower taxes
Jobs with government
Jobs with oil sector
Jobs non-oil sector
Selling good to oil companies
Cheaper fuel
Handouts to citizens
Higher land values
Cheaper electricity
Better government schools
Better government health care
Better roads
Concerns Uganda
Concerns HH
Land grabbing
+
Land grabbing
Land confiscation / inadequate compensation
Land confiscation / inadequate compensation
Loss of livelihood
Loss of livelihood
Environmental damage
Environmental damage
Crime
+
Crime
Inward migration
+
Inward migration
Household conflict
+
Household conflict
Ethnic conflict
+
Ethnic conflict
Conflict between oil and non-oil regions
+
Conflict between oil and non-oil regions
Conflict between oil-region and government +
Conflict between oil-region and government
Local government corruption
Local government corruption
Central government corruption
Central government corruption
+ indicates a statistically significant and positive effect for the oil region at or below the 5% level.
indicates a statistically significant and negative effect for the oil region at or below the 5% level.
60
Effect
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
One question that arises is whether some of the differences reported above are a function of the level
of support for the NRM in oil and non-oil regions. While our analysis in this section controls for the
average level of support for the NRM and the President in the village, it might be the case that political
alignments modify or reverse the effects of oil on certain outcomes. We test for this possibility by exploring
the interaction of NRM support levels with the oil/non-oil status of a respondents village. Across the
outcomes in Tables 3, 4, and 5 we find hardly any evidence for changes in the effects of oil discovery across
levels of NRM support.14
As Table 3 indicates, there are hardly any systematic differences between the oil and non-oil regions
in Uganda when it comes to general political attitudes and the willingness to engage, after we correct for
baseline differences using the matched data. In short, we find no evidence of a particularly noteworthy
deficit in general democratic engagement in areas close to or far from the oil wells. Importantly, this lack
of differences in attitudes does not extend to oil-specific issues. On one hand, despite the fact that Uganda
is not yet producing any oil and tangible fiscal transfers to district governments in oil-regions are yet to
be realized, local residents are better informed about the oil sector and have very clear expectations about
future revenue flows. On the other hand, while the discovery of oil has heightened expectations about fiscal
revenues and specific benefits, respondents in the oil region are clearly not (yet) willing to become politically
engaged in support of these demands. Instead, individuals are decidedly less willing to engage government
officials than respondents in the non-oil regions.
We thus test the proposition that respondents in the oil region are less willing to engage local government
officials and politicians because they are diverting their attention towards oil companies. Focusing explicitly
on oil region residents, we find that individuals living closer to the actual extraction sites are more likely
to report that they expect somewhat large future benefits from oil companies. However, they are no more
likely to think that oil companies will play a more important role in addressing development concerns than
the government. In short, it does not seem to be the case that Ugandans in the oil region are merely shifting
their attention and willingness to engage towards oil companies.
While it is too early to identify the exact reasons for this pattern, one plausible explanation might be
that Ugandans in the oil region engage in anticipatory acquiescence and do not want to rock the boat,
momentarily giving the President the benefit of the doubt. If this is indeed that case, any efforts at ensuring
good governance of the oil sector by encouraging citizen engagement might face substantial difficulties.
It remains to be seen whether this level of trust in the President and willingness to disengage politically
changes as public expectations about oil production adjust to actual realities. Indeed, the lack of willingness
to engage on the issue of oil is not driven by a lack of concerns. As Table 5 shows, Ugandans in the oil region
are expecting a number of tangible benefits from oil production, while also being sensitive to a host of risks
associated with it. This suggests that while a careful wait-and-see attitude is prevalent at the moment,
subverting expectations might quickly generate meaningful changes in peoples attitudes.
14 The
only noteworthy difference being, that while for the oil region in general political activism is suppressed, respondents
from areas with high NRM support feel more comfortable to contact local officials about oil. Detailed tables that summarize our
evidence can be found in the appendix.
61
It is widely believed that mitigating the resource curse requires that citizens take political action to discipline
rent-seeking politicians and ensure that resource revenues are spent in the public interest. The evidence
discussed thus far suggests that this might be particularly important in the Uganda case where we observed
in Section 7 that oil apparently lead to a decrease in political engagement in the oil region, the region that
it was expected would be the most predisposed to be engaged. This raises the important question: To what
extent is it possible to mobilize political engagement and increase individual willingness to demand more
transparent and accountable management of the natural resource sector.
Specifically, we are interested in considering whether providing citizens with new information can mobilize them to take action to demand transparency and accountable management of the resource sector. The
focus on information is motivated for two reasons. First, as discussed in Section 3, resource discoveries often
create incentives for politicians to try to hide future revenue. They therefore can undermine transparency,
making the work of civil society and the media more difficult and making it harder for citizens to know
whether to reward or punish their politicians for their performance. Second, many international and domestic civil society organizations might be particularly interested in organizing advocacy campaigns based on
information but there are still open questions about what kinds of information might be most effective at
mobilizing citizens to take action.
To explore the question of how to use information to mobilize political action, we developed a total of
nine experimental groups where each group received a different information treatment. The treatments
aimed to provide new information on such factors as the national and regional benefits of oil and the role of
elected officials (the President, MPs, and local government) in managing resource wealth. The treatments
are summarized in Figure 40 and the full text of each treatment can be found in Appendix C. Respondents
received the information in the form of a short script (up to about a page in length) read by the enumerators,
who also used illustrations to emphasize and clarify key points in the script. Overall, six of the nine treatments focused on trying to mobilize citizens to take political action and we focus on the results from these
experiments here.15
additional treatments focused on mitigating potential adverse effects of the information. Since we find that the information experiments are only moderately successful in increasing political action and we observe no evidence of adverse effects, we do
not focus on presenting the results from the additional treatments.
62
As described in Section 4, respondents were randomly assigned to one of the nine experimental groups.
Randomization enables the identification of the causal effect of the information treatments by ensuring
the groups are alike prior to the administration of the treatment. To improve statistical efficiency, random
assignment to treatments was blocked at the EA (village) level with one respondent per EA assigned to each
treatment. Care was also taken to ensure gender balance in treatment assignment at the constituency level.
There are two exceptions to this rule. The regional cost treatment was only implemented in the non-oil
region and the oil companies treatment was only implemented in the oil region. Two individuals in each
village in the appropriate region were randomly assigned to these treatments. Overall, there were about 300
individuals in each treatment group. All results presented below account for these features of the design.
Namely, all results are obtained using standard regression techniques in which we regress the outcomes
of interest on assignment to treatment, use village-level fixed effects and clustered standard errors at the
village-level to account for blocking, and include individual-level controls from the pre-treatment portion of
the survey to improve efficiency.
Our main outcomes of interest are whether the information treatments increase political engagement
specifically demand for information and willingness to take political action on oil-related issues. In addition
to measuring these outcomes in post-treatment modules in the survey, we introduce a behavioral measure
of willingness to take action that overcomes objections to costless survey measures. Specifically, we gave
respondents an opportunity to enroll in a text messaging service that we developed specifically for this
project. Once enrolled, respondents would receive (free) regular news updates on important oil issues and
also would have the chance to respond to public opinion pollsat the cost of a text messagethe results
of which would be shared with policymakers, civil society, and the media. As such, the text messaging
platform could be interpreted as a behavioral measure of demand for information and/or willingness to
take action to signal preferences to political leaders. For the purposes of our outcomes, this provides a
costly measure in two ways: (1) enrollment took an extra 10-15 minutes (after a 90 minute survey), and (2)
respondents had to send a confirmation text (at cost) in order for their enrollment to be complete. In the
end, 33 percent of the sample went through the enrollment process but only a very small number (39) sent
the confirmation text. The takeup was lower than expected given other text messaging services in Uganda
(e.g. Ureport) and could be confirmation of the relatively low salience of oil as an issue now. Alternatively,
it could be that respondents were more intimidated or put off by the cost associated with the public opinion
polling aspect of the service. Regardless, throughout the analysis we focus on completion of the enrollment
process as our main behavioral measure. Finally, we paid close attention to possible adverse effects of the
information treatments, especially whether they contributed to a willingness to take violent political action
and/or whether they contributed to distributional grievances about how the revenue was being used.
In this section we present results from the set of experiments focused on the effects on political action
of information that emphasized the national and regional benefits of oil as this was the central experiment
associated with understanding the political geography of Ugandas resource discovery. Results for the experiments on executive versus parliamentary control and the role of oil companies can be found in Appendix
C.
63
8.1
Following on our interest in understanding geographic variation in the politics of oil, we explored the effects of information that emphasized the national versus regional benefits of Ugandas oil discovery. These
experiments were motivated by ongoing policy discourse surrounding the Public Finance Bill over whether
to allocate a greater share of the revenue to the oil areas. Voices on one side emphasized that, even though
oil was discovered in the Western part of Uganda, it should be considered a national resource that should
be used to benefit all. Others, however, emphasized that the oil area should receive extra compensation in
anticipation of exposure to higher costs (environmental damage, displacement, etc.)
The effects of such discourse could have important implications for the nature of political engagement
across oil and non-oil areas. We first consider the effects of providing information on the national benefits of
oil. We expect that informing Ugandans of the resource discovery will have a positive effect on engagement
overall. There is good reason to believe, however, that the effect of this information will be particularly
strong for individuals in the non-oil areas who at this early stage might feel more removed from the debate
and view oil as a lower salience issue. This suggests that increasing engagement among individuals in nonoil areas could be critically important for ensuring the wise use of future revenue, especially in light of the
fact that the vast majority of revenue will be allocated by elected officials through the national budget and
available for national development. While information that emphasizes national benefits could thus play an
important role in mobilizing political engagement in the non-oil region, we also need to be aware that it
could have adverse effects, particularly in the oil region. If those in the oil region feel stronger ownership
over the resources or that they deserve a greater share of the benefits, they then could resent the emphasis
on oil as a national good. In accordance with this logic, we propose to test the following hypotheses, where
we hope to find support for the first two and to disprove the third:
H1: Information on national benefits will have a positive average effect on engagement.
H2: The effect of national benefits information on engagement will be greater in the non-oil
region relative to the oil region.
H3: The national benefits information will have more adverse effects (distributional grievances)
in the oil region relative to the non-oil region.
We might expect information that emphasizes the regional benefits of oilspecifically that a greater
share of the oil revenue will be set aside for oil districts, as stipulated in the Public Finance Billto have
the opposite effect. Such information should increase political engagement in the oil areas by emphasizing
the benefits they could receive, while it might have no effect or even a negative effect in the non-oil areas if
it only reinforces the perception that the oil does not belong to them.16 Increasing political engagement in
the oil region might be particularly important given the suggestive evidence above that the oil discovery is
causing a decline in political engagement on oil issues in the oil region. It should be noted, however, that
such information could generate greater distributional grievances in the non-oil region if individuals feel
16 The fact that the information could work in opposite ways in the oil and non-oil areas makes it difficult to generate a prediction
on the average effect of the regional benefits information. We therefore focus on the heterogeneous effect by region.
64
that it is unfair for the oil areas to receive a greater share of the benefits. We therefore add the following
hypotheses, where we hope to find support for H4 and to disprove H5:
H4: The effect of the regional benefits information on engagement will be greater in the oil
region relative to the non-oil region.
H5: The regional benefits information will have more adverse effects (willingness to take violent action, distributional grievances) in the non-oil region relative to the oil region.
The treatments
To test the hypotheses outlined above, we randomly assign survey respondents to three groups: (1) a control
group that gets basic information about the oil discovery, (2) a national benefits treatment group in which
the national benefits of oil are emphasizes, and (3) a regional benefits treatment group in which the emphasis
is on the fact that oil areas will get a greater share of the revenue. All treatments are additive, meaning that
the national treatment group received the control information PLUS the national information; the regional
treatment group received the control information PLUS the national information PLUS the regional information. In each case, then, we are interested in identifying the marginal effect of the additional information
component on political engagement. The specific language is as follows:
Control: Experts have confirmed that Uganda has about 2 billion barrels of oil (which is about
318 billion liters), which could mean a lot for the country. The government is working with
international oil companies to produce that oil within the next few years. If the oil is managed
well, Uganda can enjoy oil revenue for about the next 25 years. That money will go into
Ugandas budget and your elected MPs will decide how to spend it. Overall, the money from oil
that will go into Ugandas budget could be about four thousand million shillings a year. This
means that the total amount of money that the government and your elected MPs will have in
the budget to decide how to spend on things like health and education and roads or to save for
the future could grow from about eight thousand million shillings a year to 12 thousand million
shillings a year.
National treatment: Another way to think about it is that oil will give the government and
parliament about an extra 120,000 shillings to spend every year for each person in Uganda.
Just to be clear, its not that the government will give out the money to people directly but that is
how much each person in Uganda would get if the government were to divide it equally amongst
ALL Ugandans. And because the oil money goes into the national budget, ALL Ugandans can
indeed benefit, regardless of region or tribe. Many believe oil is a national resource and all
Ugandans are entitled to enjoy the benefits.
Regional treatment: While the oil money can benefit all people in Uganda, those living in
oil areas will get more of the money. There is a bill called the Public Finance Bill, which is
now being debated in parliament, which will set aside more of the oil revenue from the national
65
budget specifically for people who live in oil areas. This money will go to local governments,
like district governments, municipalities, and town councils, and the elected representatives of
these governments will decide how to spend it.
National Benefits Results (H1-H3)
We begin by looking at the effects of the national treatment (H1-H3), presented in Figures 41-45. Specifically, the figures provide a graphical representation of the effect of the information treatment on the perceived benefits of oil (Figure 41), on demand for information (Figure 42), on survey measures of willingness
to take political action (Figure 43), on the behavioral SMS measure of willingness to take political action
(Figure 44), and on the potential adverse effects of the national treatment (Figure 45).
For all figures in this section we present four results for each measure. The first result is the average
treatment effect (ATE) of the information and we will regard a positive and significant effect as support for
H1. The second is the treatment effect in the non-oil region only, the third result is the treatment effect in the
oil region only, and the fourth line presents the statistical test of whether the effect of the information varies
across oil and non-oil-region residents. We regard as support for H2 a negative and significant interaction
between information and oil region, indicating that the effect of the treatment on outcomes is smaller in the
oil region and bigger in the non-oil region.
Overall, the results suggest little support for H1, that information on national benefits will have a positive effect on engagement. This is evident in the fact that none of the measures produce a significant ATE in
any of the figures described above. We therefore turn our attention to H2, which predicts that the effect of
the national treatment will be greater in the non-oil region than the oil region. Here there is some tentative
evidence of support for this hypothesis. First, while not statistically significant, the coefficient on the demand for information index is in the predicted negative direction (Figure 42). This pattern becomes clearer
when looking at survey measures of willingness to take political action. Specifically, we see a statistically
significant negative interaction (at the 10 percent confidence level) on the index of political activity. This is
primarily driven by the fact that the national treatment caused a greater willingness to contact community
leaders, contact MPs, send an SMS to a public official, and phone a public official in the non-oil region
compared to the oil region.
Interestingly, while these results are consistent with H2, it is important to note that the results suggest
that the difference in the effect of the treatment across oil and non-oil regions is not being caused by an
increase in engagement in the non-oil region but rather by a decrease in engagement in the oil region. In
other words, the national treatment appears to be making individuals in the oil region less engaged rather
than making individuals in the non-oil region more engaged. Somewhat puzzlingly, this pattern of results
does not hold for a question in Figure 44 that indicates the national treatment makes people in the oil region
more willing to hold their elected politicians accountable for their management of oil revenue. We also find
no further support for H2 in looking at the behavioral measures of willingness to take action.
Importantly, while we find only modest support for H2 in the data, we reassuringly find no support for
H3that the national treatment will lead to more adverse effects (distributional grievances) in the oil region
relative to the non-oil region. Interestingly, we see that the national treatment on average strengthened
66
individuals Ugandan identity over their ethnic identity (final measure, Figure 45), which suggests that the
treatment is indeed priming people to think in national terms. There is no significant evidence, however,
that the national treatment engenders a greater willingness to take violent political action or resentment over
having to share the revenue at the national level. If anything, the results tentatively suggest that the national
treatment caused people in the oil region to be more likely to feel that it is unfair for the oil region to get
more and that their tribe gets an unfair share of the resources.
All in all, while the data offers some interesting and suggestive patterns for how information on national
benefits affects political engagement in both the oil and non-oil regions, there is little clear indication that
this information motivates more political engagement in general and in the oil region in particular.
-.4
-.2
.2
67
.4
-.4
-.2
.2
-.6
-.4
-.2
.2
Figure 43: Effect of the national treatment on willingness to take political action
68
.4
Accountability
Behavioral Outcomes
-.2
-.1
.1
.2
.3
Figure 44: Effect of the national treatment on behavioral outcomes (enrollment into text messaging service)
Distributional Grievances
Unfair for oil area to get more (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
Revenue belongs to oil area (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
Tribe gets unfair share of resources (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
Stronger Ethnic ID than UG ID (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
-.2
-.1
.1
.2
.3
Figure 45: Effect of the national treatment on adverse effects (willingness to take violent action, distributional
grievances)
69
70
has the effect of making people less willing to take action oriented at politicians, even if it makes them more
interested in oil-related issues. Overall, the lack of experimental results suggests the difficulties associated
with using information to mobilize political engagement at this early stage in the production process before
revenue has started flowing. They also highlight the need for further investigation as time goes on into what
information, if any, people in the oil and non-oil regions want and need in order to become more politically
active on oil-related issues.
-.4
-.2
71
.2
-.2
.2
.4
.6
-.4
-.2
.2
Figure 48: Effect of the regional treatment on willingness to take political action
72
.4
Accountability
Behavioral Outcomes
-.3
-.2
-.1
.1
.2
Figure 49: Effect of the regional treatment on behavioral outcomes (enrollment into text messaging service)
Distributional Grievances
Unfair for oil area to get more (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
Revenue belongs to oil area (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
Tribe gets unfair share of resources (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
Stronger Ethnic ID than UG ID (ATE)
non-oil
oil
Difference
-.3
-.2
-.1
.1
.2
Figure 50: Effect of the regional treatment on adverse effects (willingness to take violent action, distributional
grievances)
73
References
Arezki, Rabah and Markus Brckner. 2011. Oil rents, corruption, and state stability: Evidence from panel
data regressions. European Economic Review 55(7):955963.
Aspinall, Edward. 2007. The Construction of Grievance: Natural Resources and Identity in a Separatist
Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51(6):950972.
Blair, Graeme. 2014. On the Geography of Assets and Citizens: How Proximity to Oil Production Shapes
Political Order. PhD Dissertation, Princeton University.
Brollo, Fernanda, Tommaso Nannicini, Roberto Perotti and Guido Guido Tabellini. 2012. The Political
Resource Curse. American Economic Review (forthcoming) .
Cotet, M. Anca and Kevin K. Tsui. 2013. Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross COuntry Evidence Really
Show? American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(1):4980.
Croke, Kevin, Guy Grossman, Horacio A Larreguy and John Marshall. 2015. Deliberate disengagement:
How education decreases political participation in electoral authoritarian regimes. Working paper .
Gadenne, Lucie. 2014. Tax Me, But Spend Wisely: Public Finance and Government Accountability.
Unpublished manuscript.
Gelb, Alan and Stephanie Majerowicz. 2011. Oil for Uganda - or Ugandans? Center for Global Development Working Paper 261 .
Grossman, Guy, Macartan Humphreys and Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz. 2014. I wld like u WMP to extend electricity 2 our village: On Information Technology and Interest Articulation. American Political
Science Review 108(03):688705.
Hainmueller, Jens. 2012. Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to
Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies. Political Analysis 20(1):2546.
Humphreys, Macartan. 2005. Natural Resources, Conflict and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanisms. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(4).
LeBillon, Phillipe. 2001. The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts. Political
Geography 20:561584.
Lei, Yu-Hsiang and Guy Michaels. 2014. Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?
Journal of Development Economics 110:139157.
Lujala, Paivi. 2010. The Spoils of Nature: Armed Civil Conflict and Rebel Access to Natural Resources.
Journal of Peace Research 47(1).
Mhler, Annegret and Jan H. Pierskalla. 2015. Indigenous Identity, Natural Resources and Contentious
Politics in Bolivia: A Dis- aggregated Conflict Analysis 2000-2011. Comparative Political Studies
48(3):301322.
Paler, Laura. 2013. Keeping the Public Purse: An Experiment in Windfalls, Taxes, and the Incentives to
Restrain Government. American Political Science Review 104(7).
Robinson, James, Ragner Torvik and Thierry Verdier. 2006. Political foundations of the resource curse.
Journal of Development Economics 79:447468.
74
Ross, Michael. 2001. Does Oil Hinder Democracy? World Politics 53(3):32561.
Ross, Michael. 2006. A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War. Annual Review of Political Science
9:265300.
Ross, Michael. 2012. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton
University Press.
Sachs, J and A.M. Warner. 2001. The Curse of National Resources. European Economic Review 45:827
838.
Shaxson, Nicholas. 2007. Oil, Corruption and the Resource Curse. International Affairs 83(6):11231140.
Tornell, A. and P.L. Lane. 1998. Are Windfalls a Curse? A Non-representative Agent Model of the Current
Account. Journal of International Economics 44(1):83112.
Tullow. 2013. Creating Shared Prosperity In Uganda. Technical report Tullow Uganda Country Report.
75
Appendix A
Survey Demographics
This section gives a general overview of the demographic background of the sample and includes information on respondent age, gender, relationship to the head of household, level of education, literacy, English
proficiency, time spent as a village local, income/wealth, and employment status. Many of these demographic characteristics are compared herein to the most recent full version of Ugandas national census,
which took place in 2002.17 Since a great deal has changed about the demographic makeup of Uganda since
2002, comparisons between our survey population and the national average should be taken with a grain of
salt.
Urban
Head of the household
Secondary education
Full literacy
English proficiency
Local to village
Employed, retired or student
Has sent an SMS before
Sends several SMS per week
Observations
Overall
0.22
0.45
0.18
0.51
0.28
0.64
0.50
0.35
0.20
2712
Male
0.22
0.65
0.23
0.59
0.35
0.73
0.59
0.42
0.24
1363
Female
0.23
0.24
0.13
0.43
0.22
0.56
0.41
0.28
0.15
1349
Non-NRM
0.29
0.38
0.23
0.56
0.38
0.62
0.51
0.40
0.24
1125
NRM
0.18
0.50
0.15
0.48
0.22
0.66
0.49
0.31
0.16
1587
Non-oil
0.24
0.42
0.20
0.46
0.29
0.64
0.50
0.36
0.20
1358
Oil
0.21
0.47
0.17
0.56
0.28
0.65
0.50
0.33
0.19
1354
Consistent with past national surveys (as the Afrobarometer), these summary statistics show large gender
gaps with respect to education attainment, literacy, English proficiency, and employment. Men are also
more likely to have experience with mobile technology: they report having used SMS messaging in greater
percentages than women, as well as using such messaging with greater frequency. Interestingly, in terms
of human capital, non-NRM voters outpaced NRM voters, reflecting the greater support for the opposition
in urban centers. Those who do not identify with the NRM are more likely to complete at least secondary
17 Note
that the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBoS) completed its first census in more than a decade in the fall of 2014. Since,
however, only the provisional 2014 results are publicly available, comparisons between the survey and the national population
requires referring to the 2002 Census results.
76
Range
Demographics
Age
Head4of4the4household
Village4local4
Completed4secondary4school
Literate
Proficient4in4English
Has4sent4an4SMS4(text)4message4before
Sends4at4least4a4few4SMS4per4month
Sends4at4least4a4few4SMS4per4week
Frequency4of4radio4use
Frequency4of4newspaper4use
Objective2Measures2of2Economic2Welfare
Currently4employed
Employed,4retired,4or4a4student
Unemployed4and4seeking4work
Seeking4work
Average4monthly4income4over4the4past434
months
Total4number4of4plots4of4land4owned
Drinking4water4comes4from4a4protected4
source
Owns4his/her4dwelling
Dwelling4is4made4of4high4quality4materials
Main4fuel4source4for4lighting4is4eletricity,4gas,4
solar,4or4battery4power
How4often4dwelling4is4lit4at4night4from4main4
fuel4source
Latrine4is4a4flush4toilet,4VIP4latrine,4or4covered4
pit4latrine
Owns4goats,4sheep,4or4pigs
Owns4cows
Owns4a4set4of4chairs4for4visitors
Owns4a4wooden4bed
Owns4a4refrigerator
Owns4a4generator
Owns4a4sewing4machine
Owns4a4gas4cooking4stove4in4good4working4
condition
Owns4a4bicycle4in4good4working4condition
min
max
Mean
SD
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
04(never)
04(never)
90
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
44(every4day)
44(every4day)
35.96
0.50
0.57
0.20
0.52
0.30
0.36
0.33
0.20
3.09
1.05
13.29
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.46
0.48
0.47
0.40
1.27
1.28
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0.50
0.57
0.21
0.40
0.50
0.49
0.41
0.49
0
0
10
500
2.64
1.99
2.66
7.96
0
0
0
1
1
1
0.74
0.72
0.52
0.44
0.45
0.50
0.34
0.47
14(never)
44(always)
3.36
0.84
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.57
0.47
0.26
0.64
0.82
0.09
0.03
0.06
0.49
0.50
0.44
0.48
0.38
0.29
0.18
0.23
0
0
1
1
0.03
0.38
0.18
0.49
education, be fully literate, be fluent in English, be employed and be at ease in using mobile phones. Finally,
oil and non-oil samples are rather balanced in terms of their basic socio-demographics.
77
veyed report identifying with the Church of Uganda (Anglican). Muslim-identified respondents account for
the third largest segment of the sample, at 16% of those interviewed. These top three groups are comparable
to the national population statistics from the 2002 Census, where Catholics made up 42% of the national
population, Anglicans were 36%, and Muslims were 12%.
Religious Affiliation
38
Percent
40
30
25
20
16
10
10
7
3
ta
l
Pr
an
/E
v
O
th
er
ta
n
ot
es
lic
ge
n
tia
is
hr
C
al
ly
on
lim
us
M
os
Pe
An
gl
nt
ec
ic
an
/C
om
hu
an
rc
of
at
ho
lic
Muganda
Mukiga
Munyankole
Munyoro
Musoga
Mukhonzo
Lugbara
Acholi
Langi
Itesot
Alur
Madi
Jopadhola
Karimojong
Mutoro
Mufumbira
Munyole
Kakwa
Mugisu
Sabiny
Muhororo
Munyarwanda
Muamba
Mugungu
Other
Survey Sample
13
9
8
8
7
6
6
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
Census (2002)
17
7
10
3
9
3
4
5
6
7
2
1
2
1
9
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
0
0
0
79
9 10
10
12 13
e
on
N
iv
om
es
tic
O
th
er
or
ke
nt
se
r
iv
il
is
te
rp
r
va
(O
)
e
e
is
en
at
e
)
pr
.e
nt
er
Pr
pr
is
e
ed
l/m
al
iv
Sm
Pr
(E
(O
)
at
e
en
te
r
is
tu
re
nt
er
pr
ul
ric
ed
.e
Ag
l/m
al
(E
)
Sm
Percent
Male
Female
64
57
80
Appendix B
Political Geography
Table 8: Pre-Matching Balance
pop_lc1
age_lc1
male_share_lc1
literacy_share_lc1
unemployed_share_lc1
education_lc1
agriculture_share_lc1
manufacturing_share_lc1
services_share_lc1
rlf
elf
co_ethnic_share_lc1
owner_occup_share_lc1
sleeping_rooms_lc1
roof_thatch_share_lc1
floor_earth_share_lc1
tenure_custom_share_lc1
tenure_free_share_lc1
tenure_mailo_share_lc1
dist_health_lc1
dist_school_lc1
dist_water_lc1
wood_cook_share_lc1
light_elec_share_lc1
water_prot_share_lc1
bush_toilet_share_lc1
motor_share_lc1
motorcycle_share_lc1
radio_share_lc1
pres_share
Oil, Mean
744.87
20.34
0.50
0.45
0.01
2.32
0.27
0.00
0.03
0.49
0.30
0.09
0.86
1.91
0.50
0.00
0.61
0.17
0.04
2.90
2.46
2.68
0.92
0.02
0.52
0.10
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.64
Non-Oil, Mean
813.41
20.21
0.50
0.47
0.02
2.40
0.20
0.01
0.06
0.56
0.33
0.06
0.70
1.72
0.41
0.01
0.44
0.14
0.08
2.86
2.31
2.72
0.76
0.10
0.59
0.18
0.03
0.02
0.06
0.54
SD Diff
-11.27
5.04
-15.81
-20.90
-32.28
-32.80
40.58
-129.36
-66.40
-40.05
-12.61
15.73
75.15
42.46
24.23
-178.34
47.49
10.84
-34.80
5.66
26.84
-6.72
87.48
-99.19
-18.34
-57.56
-82.13
3.48
-158.84
41.08
SD Diff pooled
-10.58
8.57
-20.45
-23.36
-37.13
-38.68
57.39
-39.28
-64.09
-56.98
-17.13
25.24
81.08
59.22
32.83
-21.37
62.12
16.95
-41.78
7.78
34.26
-8.49
78.59
-68.38
-25.27
-54.56
-60.53
4.60
-76.90
61.20
Variance Ratio
0.28
2.76
0.72
0.45
0.50
0.54
1.09
0.02
0.32
1.12
0.86
1.89
0.46
1.04
0.87
0.00
0.81
1.62
0.57
0.90
0.70
0.66
0.27
0.14
0.91
0.30
0.16
0.77
0.07
1.41
81
T p-value
0.07
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.43
0.00
0.00
KS p-value
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
QQ Mean Diff
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.08
0.12
0.12
0.09
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.05
0.13
0.03
0.16
0.03
0.07
0.04
0.17
0.13
0.07
0.07
0.13
0.03
0.22
0.15
QQ Median Diff
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.05
0.10
0.10
0.14
0.13
0.09
0.15
0.03
0.02
0.17
0.14
0.07
0.05
0.14
0.03
0.18
0.02
0.08
0.04
0.17
0.13
0.08
0.08
0.13
0.03
0.25
0.14
QQ Max Diff
0.07
0.11
0.08
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.23
0.11
0.09
0.31
0.25
0.21
0.11
0.24
0.07
0.25
0.10
0.17
0.10
0.30
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.20
0.11
0.33
0.31
Oil, Mean
744.87
20.34
0.50
0.45
0.01
2.32
0.27
0.00
0.03
0.49
0.30
0.09
0.86
1.91
0.50
0.00
0.61
0.17
0.04
2.90
2.46
2.68
0.92
0.02
0.52
0.10
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.64
Non-Oil, Mean
752.41
20.32
0.50
0.46
0.01
2.33
0.26
0.01
0.03
0.50
0.30
0.09
0.84
1.88
0.49
0.00
0.59
0.17
0.04
2.90
2.44
2.68
0.90
0.03
0.53
0.11
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.63
SD Diff
-1.24
0.65
-1.86
-2.84
-4.45
-4.44
5.17
-17.88
-8.81
-5.14
-1.73
2.16
9.79
5.74
3.22
-21.45
6.13
1.41
-4.42
0.76
3.54
-0.92
11.53
-13.40
-2.53
-7.56
-10.85
0.65
-21.58
5.30
SD Diff pooled
-1.21
1.02
-2.73
-4.26
-4.76
-7.89
7.95
-23.80
-11.31
-7.01
-2.20
2.98
13.03
8.18
4.89
-6.14
8.73
2.03
-6.77
1.20
5.51
-1.57
13.69
-13.99
-3.73
-11.61
-12.21
0.85
-23.86
8.66
Variance Ratio
0.31
1.67
1.17
1.28
0.40
3.63
1.44
0.81
0.70
0.87
0.68
0.91
0.80
1.03
1.35
0.02
1.03
1.09
1.42
1.64
1.53
2.58
0.55
0.38
1.18
1.44
0.47
0.74
0.45
2.00
T p-value
0.83
0.86
0.63
0.45
0.40
0.17
0.16
0.00
0.04
0.21
0.70
0.60
0.02
0.15
0.39
0.27
0.12
0.72
0.23
0.83
0.33
0.78
0.01
0.01
0.51
0.04
0.03
0.88
0.00
0.13
KS p-value
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
QQ Mean Diff
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.08
0.12
0.12
0.09
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.05
0.13
0.03
0.16
0.03
0.07
0.04
0.17
0.13
0.07
0.07
0.13
0.03
0.22
0.15
QQ Median Diff
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.05
0.10
0.10
0.14
0.13
0.09
0.15
0.03
0.02
0.17
0.14
0.07
0.05
0.14
0.03
0.18
0.02
0.08
0.04
0.17
0.13
0.08
0.08
0.13
0.03
0.25
0.14
QQ Max Diff
0.07
0.11
0.08
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.23
0.11
0.09
0.31
0.25
0.21
0.11
0.24
0.07
0.25
0.10
0.17
0.10
0.30
0.19
0.17
0.15
0.20
0.11
0.33
0.31
Table 10: Differences between oil and non-oil regions by level of NRM support, general outcomes
Outcome
Satisfaction & Trust
Satisfaction President
Satisfaction MPs
Satisfaction Local
Satisfaction Democracy
Trust President
Trust MPs
Trust Local
Trust Clan
Trust Kingdom
NRM Support
Low High
Diff
Outcome
NRM Support
Low High
Corruption Perception
Surprised about corruption, President
Surprised about corruption, MPs
Surprised about corruption, Local
Surprised about corruption, Clan
Surprised about corruption, Kingdom
82
Diff
Table 11: Differences between oil and non-oil regions, by level of NRM support, oil-specific outcomes
Outcome
Knowledge & Expectations
Oil Knowledge
Expected budget increase due to oil
Extra revenue for oil-region
Extra revenue to national government
Extra revenue to local government
Extra revenue to citizens
Unfair that oil region gets more revenue
Royalties for oil region
Satisfaction with management of oil, President
Satisfaction with management of oil, MPs
NRM Support
Low High
Diff
Outcome
Knowledge & Expectations
Your tribe is receiving an unfair share
Oil belongs to oil region
Benefits to Uganda
Benefits to the household
Benefits index, after information
Benefits to Uganda, after information
Benefits to household, after information
Impact oil Uganda
Impact oil household
Feeling more attached to own ethnic group
83
NRM Support
Low High
Diff
+
+
+
-
Table 12: Differences between oil and non-oil regions, by level of NRM support, expected benefits and
concerns
Outcome
Expected Benefits Uganda
Lower taxes
Jobs with government
Jobs with oil sector
Jobs non-oil sector
Selling good to oil companies
Cheaper fuel
Handouts to citizens
Higher land values
Cheaper electricity
Better government schools
Better government health care
Better roads
NRM Support
Low High
Diff
+
+
Outcome
NRM Support
Low High
Expected Benefits HH
Lower taxes
Jobs with government
Jobs with oil sector
Jobs non-oil sector
Selling good to oil companies
Cheaper fuel
Handouts to citizens
Higher land values
Cheaper electricity
Better government schools
Better government health care
Better roads
Concerns Uganda
Concerns HH
Land grabbing
+
Land grabbing
Land confiscation / inadequate compensation
+
Land confiscation / inadequate compensation
Loss of livelihood
Loss of livelihood
Environmental damage
Environmental damage
Crime
Crime
Inward migration
+
Inward migration
Household conflict
Household conflict
Ethnic conflict
Ethnic conflict
Conflict between oil and non-oil regions
+
Conflict between oil and non-oil regions
Conflict between oil-region and government
Conflict between oil-region and government
Local government corruption
Local government corruption
Central government corruption
Central government corruption
+ indicates a statistically significant and positive effect for the oil region at or below the 5% level.
indicates a statistically significant and negative effect for the oil region at or below the 5% level.
84
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
Diff
Appendix C
Information Experiments
All Treatments
BASIC INFORMATION
Pure Control [C]
[ILLUSTRATION 1] Experts have confirmed that Uganda has about 2 billion barrels of oil (which is about
318 billion liters), which could mean a lot for the country. The government is working with international oil
companies to produce that oil within the next few years. If the oil is managed well, Uganda can enjoy oil
revenue for about the next 25 years. [ILLUSTRATION 2] That money will go into Ugandas budget and the
government and your elected MPs will decide how to spend it.
Windfall Size [T1]
[C+T1] [ILLUSTRATION 3] Overall, the money from oil that will go into Ugandas budget could be about
4000 million shillings a year. This means that the total amount of money that the government and your
elected MPs will have in the budget to decide how to spend on things like health and education and roads or
to save for the future could grow from about 8000 million shillings a year to 12,000 million shillings a year.
National Benefits [T2]
[C+T1+T2] [ILLUSTRATION 4] Another way to think about it is that oil will give the government and
parliament about an extra 120,000 shillings to spend every year for each person in Uganda. Just to be clear,
its not that the government will give out that money to people directly, but that is how much each person in
Uganda would get if the government were to divide it equally amongst ALL Ugandans. And because the oil
money goes into the national budget, ALL Ugandans can indeed benefit, regardless of region or tribe. Many
believe oil is a national resource and all Ugandans are entitled to enjoy the benefits.
Moderating Expectations [T3]
[C+T1+T2+T3] [ILLUSTRATION 5] While some people believe that oil will make people very wealthy,
sometimes oil discoveries can actually make people expect too much. Ugandas oil reserves are actually
quite modest in comparison to some other countries with oil. For instance, while Uganda has about 2
billion barrels of oil (which is about 318 billion liters), Nigeria has about 40 billion barrels of oil and Saudi
Arabia has about 270 billion barrels of oil. While there are still many ways that Uganda can benefit from
its oil, there will not necessarily be a lot of jobs for Ugandans in the oil sector, free fuel, or free goods.
POLITICAL CONTROL
Executive Control [T4]
[C+T1+T2+T4] [ILLUSTRATION 6] The Petroleum Bill, which was recently signed into law by parliament,
gives the government a great deal of power in handling oil. For example, it gives the government almost
complete control over deciding who gets oil contracts, negotiating how the money is divided between the
85
oil companies and government, and deciding how much information to release to the public. Some say that
giving the government such powers is the only way to ensure that Uganda will get the most out of its oil.
Others fear that giving the government such powers will lead to corruption and misuse of the oil money.
MP Control [T5]
[C+T1+T2+T4+T5] [ILLUSTRATION 7] There is another bill called the Public Finance Bill, which is now
being debated in parliament, which will decide whether MPs can check the power of the government and
help make decisions about how the oil money is spent. Some believe that it is important for MPs to have a
say in influencing how the money is allocated across regions in Uganda. They also believe that MPs should
try to make sure that oil money is being used in the best interest of the people and is not being wasted or
misused. MPs can also improve transparency and provide information to their constituents.
DISTRIBUTIONAL CONCERNS
Regional Benefits [T6]
[C+T1+T2+T6] [ILLUSTRATION 8] While the oil money can benefit all people in Uganda, those living
in oil areas will get more of the money. There is a bill called the Public Finance Bill, which is now being
debated in parliament, which will set aside more of the oil revenue from the national budget specifically for
people who live in oil areas. This money will go to local governments, like district governments, municipalities, and town councils, and the elected representatives of these governments will decide how to spend
it.
Regional Costs (Non-Producer Regions Only) [T7]
[C+T1+T2+T6+T7] [ILLUSTRATION 9] One reason that the oil areas are getting more money is because
oil production can also carry some hardships. For example, oil spills can damage the environment, hurt the
quality of land, and harm local fishery areas. Oil production also means that some people will lose their
land and some will lose their source of income. Some people argue that the oil areas need the extra money
to help address these problems.
Role of Oil Companies (Producer Regions Only) [T8]
[C+T1+T2+T6+T8] [ILLUSTRATION 10] As you may know, the international oil companies agreed to
invest in some goods and services for the public in exchange for the right to extract oil. For example, one oil
company is building two health centers and two primary schools in Hoima District. Its important to know,
however, that the amount of money that will be spent by oil companies is much smaller than the amount of
money that local governments have to spend on services like health and education. Also, it is your elected
representatives in the local government that have the ultimate responsibility for making sure that these
schools and clinics actually work well, for instance by hiring teachers and nurses and by providing supplies
and medicine.
86
Results for Experiments on Executive versus Parliamentary Control [T4 and T5]
In addition to the experimental results on the national and regional benefits of oil presented in Section
8.1, we aimed to investigate effects on political engagement of information on which political actors are
responsible for the management of the oil sector. This included an executive treatment in which information
on the pros and cons of strong executive control (as codified in the Petroleum Bill) was provided as well as
a parliamentary treatment in which the importance of legislative oversight of oil revenue was emphasized
(see Appendix C). We predicted that the presidential treatment would increase willingness to take action to
hold the executive accountable for use of oil revenues. Conversely, we expected the parliamentary treatment
to increase willingness to take political action oriented towards MPs. Furthermore, we were interested in
investigating variation across the oil and non-oil region given the fact that the oil region is a Museveni/NRM
stronghold and therefore may be less willing to take action to constrain the president.
The results for both treatments are presented in Figures ??-63 following the same format described in
Section 8.1. All in all, we see little evidence of treatment effects across all measures. The evidence that we
do find is summarized below:
Executive control treatment increased demand for information in the oil region (Figure 56).
Executive control treatment increased desire to enroll in the text messaging platform in the oil region
(Figure 58).
MP control treatment reduced satisfaction with MPs in the oil region (Figure 60).
MP control treatment reduced the desire to vote out elected representatives for misuse of oil revenue
in the oil region (Figure 60).
MP control treatment reduced desire to enroll in the text messaging platform in the oil region (Figure
63).
Overall this presents a very mixed picture. It is possible that the executive control treatment increased
demand for information in the oil region because people expect the president and NRM to deliver large
benefits. Notably, informing people about the role of their MPs seems to have the opposite effect than
intendedit reduces willingness to take political action oriented towards these representatives. This further
underscores the survey data, which highlights that a large deficit in trust exists with respect to MPs and
citizens in Uganda do not see MPs as effective representatives of their interests or vehicles by which to
ensure greater transparency and accountability in the oil sector.
87
Perceived Benefits
-.4
-.2
.2
.4
-.4
-.2
88
.2
-.2
.2
.4
.6
Figure 56: Effect of the executive control treatment on demand for information
-.4
-.2
.2
.4
Figure 57: Effect of the executive control treatment on willingness to take political action
89
Petroleum Policies
Behavioral Outcomes
-.4
-.2
.2
.4
Figure 58: Effect of the executive control treatment on behavioral outcomes (enrollment into text messaging service)
Perceived Benefits
-.4
-.2
.2
90
.4
-.4
-.2
.2
-.4
-.2
91
.2
-.4
-.2
.2
.4
Figure 62: Effect of the MP control treatment on willingness to take political action
Petroleum Policies
Behavioral Outcomes
-.4
-.2
.2
Figure 63: Effect of the MP control treatment on behavioral outcomes (enrollment into text messaging service)
92
Perceived Benefits
Political Control
Political Action
Behavioral Outcomes
-.2
-.1
.1
93
.2