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Statistics 104
Autumn 2004
Continuous Distributions
Uniform Distributions
This distribution describes events that are equally likely in a range (a, b).
As mentioned before, it is what people often consider as a random number.
The PDF for the for the uniform distribution (U (a, b)) is
1
f (x) =
;
ba
The CDF is
0
F (x) =
xa
ba
axb
x<a
axb
x>b
(b a)
Var(X) =
;
12
SD(X) =
(b a)2
12
2
k=3
k=2
k=1
k=0.25
1.0
0.0
0.5
f(x)
1.5
U(0,1)
U(2,3)
Uniform CDFs
U(k,k) CDFs
f(x)
2
0
x
Continuous Distributions
0
x
U(0,1)
U(2,3)
F(x)
U(k,k) Densities
2.0
f(x)
Uniform Densities
k=3
k=2
k=1
k=0.25
0
x
Exponential Distribution
The exponential distribution is often used to describe the time to an event.
The PDF for the for the exponential distribution (Exp()) is
f (x) = ex;
The CDF is
F (x) =
x0
1 ex x 0
0
x<0
Continuous Distributions
Var(X) =
1
;
2
SD(X) =
0.4
lambda=0.5
lambda=1
lambda=2
0.0
lambda=0.5
lambda=1
lambda=2
0.8
Exponential CDFs
f(x)
f(x)
Exponential Densities
10
10
So the chance that what we are observing survives another t units of time
doesnt depend on how long we have observed it so far.
This property limits where the exponential distribution can be used. For
example, we wouldnt want to use it to model human lifetimes.
Another potential drawback is that the parameter describes the
distribution completely. Once you know this, you also know the standard
deviation, skewness, kurtosis, etc.
Even with these drawbacks, the exponential distribution is widely used.
Examples where it may be appropriate are
Queuing theory - times between customer arrivals
Times to relapse in leukemia patients
Times to equipment failures
Distances between crossovers during meiosis
Continuous Distributions
f (x) =
Continuous Distributions
ex/
;
x0
F (x) =
1 ex/ x 0
0
x<0
Normal Distributions
The normal distribution is almost surely
the most common distribution used in
probability and statistics. It is also
referred to as the Gaussian distribution,
as Gauss was an early promoter of its
use (though not the first, which was
probably De Moivre). It is also what
most people mean when they talk about bell curve. It is used to describe
observed data, measurement errors, an approximation distribution (Central
Limit Theorem).
The PDF for the for the normal distribution (N (, 2)) is
1
(x)2 /2 2
f (x) =
e
2
Continuous Distributions
The two parameters of the distribution are the mean () and the variance
( 2). A special case is the standard normal density which has = 0
and 2 = 1 and its PDF is often denoted by (x). As we shall see, once
we understand the standard normal (N (0, 1)), we understand all normal
distributions.
The CDF for the normal distribution doesnt have a nice form. The CDF
for the standard normal is often denoted by (x) which is of the form
Z
(x) =
2
1
eu /2du
2
N(0,sigma^2) Densities
0.4
0.8
N(mu,1) Densities
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
N(0,sigma^2) CDFs
0
x
Continuous Distributions
N(mu,1) CDFs
f(x)
2
0
x
mu = 0
mu = 1
mu = 1
f(x)
sigma = 1
sigma = 0.5
sigma = 2
0.4
f(x)
0.2
0.1
f(x)
0.3
0
1
1
sigma = 1
sigma = 0.5
sigma = 2
10
11
Proof.
FY (y) = P [Y y]
= P [aX + b y]
yb
= P X
a
yb
= FX
a
Therefore
fY (y) =
=
d
FX
dy
yb
a
1
yb
fX
|a|
a
Note that to this point, we havent made any assumptions about the
distribution of X. Any linear transformation of a RV gives this relationship.
Continuous Distributions
12
1
1 y b a
exp
fY (y) =
2
a
|a| 2
which is the density for a N (a + b, (a)2). 2
From this all normal density curves must
have the same basic shape and if X
N (, 2)
f (x) =
and
1
x
x
F (x) =
13
If X N (, 2), then
X
Z=
N (0, 1)
X ~ N(mu,sigma^2)
x = mu + z sigma
Z ~ N(0,1)
14
Continuous Distributions
15
0.020
P [X 140] = P [Z 1] = 0.8413
0.010
0.000
f(x)
P [X 140]
60
80
95100
120
140
160
180
Blood Pressure
P [X 95]
95 120
P [X 95] = P Z
20
= P [Z 1.25]
= 1 P [Z 1.25]
Continuous Distributions
16
0.010
0.000
f(x)
0.020
60
80
95100
120
140
160
180
Blood Pressure
= P [Z 1] P [Z 1.25]
= 0.8413 0.1056 = 0.7357
Continuous Distributions
17
Gamma Distributions
The gamma distribution can be used model a wide range of non-negative
RVs. It has been used to model times between earthquakes, the size of
automobile insurance claims, rainfall amounts, plant yields.
The PDF for the for the gamma distribution (G(, )) is
1 x
f (x) =
x
e
;
()
x0
18
G(2,lamdba) Densities
1.2
1.2
G(alpha,1) Densities
0.8
0.4
0.0
G(alpha,1) CDFs
G(2,lamdba) CDF
4
x
Continuous Distributions
f(x)
2
alpha=1
alpha=0.75
alpha=2
alpha=4
0
f(x)
alpha=1
alpha=0.75
alpha=2
alpha=4
f(x)
0.0
0.4
f(x)
0.8
alpha=1
alpha=0.75
alpha=2
alpha=4
alpha=1
alpha=0.75
alpha=2
alpha=4
0
19
() =
x1exdx
R
0
exdx = 1
The CDF of the gamma doesnt have a nice closed form so you need tables
or a computer to find probabilities involving the gamma.
Continuous Distributions
20
Var(X) =
SD(X) =
;
2
E[X ] =
1 x
x
Z
=
0
nx
e
dx
()
x+n1ex
dx
()
( + n)
()
So
( + 1) ()
E[X] =
=
=
()
()
Continuous Distributions
21
and
( + 2) ( + 1)()
E[X] =
=
= ( + 1)
()
()
X
.
Then Y G(, ) as
(y)1ey
fY (y) =
()
Thus
2
E[X]
E[Y ] =
= ;
Continuous Distributions
Var(X)
Var(Y ) =
= 2;
2
22
Beta Distributions
Beta distributions are useful for data that occur in fixed, finite intervals
The PDF for the for the beta distribution (Beta(, )) is
xa1(1 x)b1
f (x) =
;
(a, b)
0x1
(a, b) =
xa1(1 x)b1dx
=
Continuous Distributions
(a)(b)
(a + b)
23
Beta(a,6)Densities
1
2
3
4
8
4
f(x)
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
f(x)
2.0
0.8
1
2
4
6
2.5
Beta(a,a) Densities
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
x
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Like many continuous distributions, the CDF for the beta does not have a
nice form and must be determined through tables or software.
Continuous Distributions
24
a
;
a+b
Var(X) =
ab
(a + b + 1)(a + b)2
Proof.
E[X n] =
=
So
E[X] =
and
1
(a, b)
xnxa1(1 x)b1
(a + n, b)
(a, b)
a
(a + 1, b) (a + 1)(b) (a + b)
=
=
(a, b)
(a + b + 1) (a)(b) a + b
(a + 1)a
(a + 1, b)
E[X ] =
=
(a, b)
(a + b + 1)(a + b)
2
Continuous Distributions
25
which implies
a
Var(X) =
a+b
a+1
a
a+b+1 a+b
a
b
=
a + b (a + b + 1)(a + b)
Continuous Distributions
26
Cauchy Distributions
The Cauchy distribution (also known as the Lorentzian distribution), is
often used for describing resonance behavior. It can also be used to describe
outliers in data sets. However it is more commonly used in probability and
statistics as a distribution that can be used for counter examples.
The PDF for the for the Cauchy distribution (C(, )) is
f (x) =
The CDF is
Continuous Distributions
x 2
1 + ( )
1 1
x
F (x) = + Arctan
2
27
0.15
f(x)
0.25
0
1
1
0.05
f(x)
C(0,sigma) Densities
0
x
C(mu,1) Densities
1
0.5
2
Continuous Distributions
28
0.4
Normal vs Cauchy
0.2
0.0
0.1
f(x)
0.3
N(0,1)
C(0,1)
|xn|f (x)dx =
Continuous Distributions
29