Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Background - While many telecom companies did quite well over the past 15
years, at the margin, technology companies created more wealth than telecom &
media companies as global desktop Internet + voice / texting mobile markets
developed.
Outlook - The technology sector could garner outsized relative gains (vs.
telecom) as the mobile Internet market develops and a large portion of
incremental profits go to companies that drive innovation and gain scale.
It’s notable that, after years in the backwaters of global mobile development,
American companies (led by the likes of Apple, Facebook, Amazon.com and
Google) are becoming mobile internet innovation pacesetters.
Key Points:
• Mobile internet ramping faster than desktop internet did and will be bigger
than most think
• 5 Trends Converging: 3G, Social Networking,Video, VoIP, Impressive
Mobile Devices
• Within 5 years it’s likely more users will likely connect to the Internet via
mobile devices than desktop PCs
Consumers will expect to seamlessly connect via mobile, wired and wireless
internet. 3G will form a central aspect of this but Wifi and Wimax will grow in
capability and uptake. Whoever owns this network will be in the strongest
position.
Many websites today provide services beyond content and information. Google’s
Google Apps is a prime example of this, where the services provided by a web
site are directly competing with established software giants, like Microsoft. The
Nokia OVI site is another prime example of a web based service, where by
providing added services like instant photosharing, syncing and geo-specific
content, Nokia builds both loyalty and additional revenue streams.
Cloud computing – Already popular, we’ve seen a huge growth in the number of
free online services offering data back-up and synchronisation. Why store your
information/data/media on one device when you can store them on the cloud
and access them from any desktop, your laptop and your mobile? DropBox
recently won web app of the year, allowing constant synchronisation and instant
access to 2GB media for free.
Already popular with millions for their personal use it’s likely we’ll see this
success filter through to SME use. Small businesses are using up more
bandwidth than ever before, with applications like video conferencing, IP
telephony, media streaming and large file transfers all competing with cloud
applications for vital bandwidth. Google is in many ways at the forefront of this
revolution offering free Gmail with 5GB worth of space. Google docs to allow
people to create, collaborate and store documents externally.
Off-site backup has seen a big growth as people see the benefits of backing up to
a remote server which alleviates any issues with fires & theft. Mozy.com is one of
the biggest providers of this service. The limitations are upload speeds so slow
(even on a broadband connection) meaning it can take a week to back up 50GB
data. Broadband providers in the UK are so obsessed with download speeds they
tend to forget uploading and its importance.
Network Thoughts on How Carriers May Navigate Rapid Data Growth &
Slowing / Declining Core Voice / Messaging Growth
Congestion problems (voice + data) lie at cell site level in densely populated
areas
• Markets like London have high population density and high smartphone
penetration, and, thus, are the most susceptible to network capacity constraints.
• Wireless carriers will likely target capacity constrained cell sites in these
markets first, focusing on technology upgrades (HSPA 3.6 to HSPA 7.2) and
backhaul upgrades (T1s to fiber-based Ethernet or microwave).
As we have seen before, when consumers are empowered by the Internet, usage
changes occur very quickly.
Devices Traditional handset manufacturers have struggled over the past 2 years
due to the rapid growth of the smartphone. Over the last 18 months the number
of UK Smartphone users (iPhone, Nokia N96, T-Mobile G1 etc) has grown from
3.6m subscribers to 6.3m, a 73% increase.
The losers are Nokia and Sony Ericsson. The winners are RIM, Apple and HTC.
Tradtional laptop manufacturers like Dell are now working on phones of their
own.
In the laptop market there’s only been one growth area (apart from Apple) and
that’s netbooks. People have been happy to trade processing power for
portability and price. There’s been further growth with netbooks coming with
data contracts.
Smartbooks will be the next evolution of the laptop that has key advantages over
a netbook. They feature all-day battery life, constant internet connectivity
through the 3G phone network, rather than relying on WiFi hotspots, plus lower
costs that will encourage operators to offer them free to subscribers. Smartbooks
run on microprocessors similar to those used in mobile phones.
A whole host of impressive new devices will soon emerge all requiring constant
data connectivity:
Smartbooks
Tablets
E-Readers such as amazon’s kindle which
In-car devices
MP3/games players
Google will continue to grow in dominance in both the computing and mobile
markets. It’s now pushing it’s own web-browser, it’s own PC and mobile OS
(Android). They’re about to release their first hardware phone. This will be
platform agnostic so has the potential to carve the networks control open. Of
course people will need networks but as Wifi and Wimax coverage increases this
will be less essential. People will be able to chop and change which network
they’re on depending on where they are and their requirements. It’s quite
possible that Google will bid for network space at some point and offer free
connectivity in return for serving ads. This is unlikely to happen in Europe due to
competition issues.