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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Overview
History
1969 - Allin Cornell BSSA paper
Rapid development since that time

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Overview
Deterministic (DSHA)
Assumes a single scenario
Select a single magnitude, M
Select a single distance, R
Assume effects due to M, R

Ground
Ground
motion
motion
parameters
parameters

Probabilistic (PSHA)
Assumes many scenarios
Consider all magnitudes
Consider all distances
Consider all effects

Ground
Ground
motion
motion
parameters
parameters

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Overview
Why?
Why? Because
Becausewe
wedont
dontknow
know when
when
earthquakes
earthquakeswill
willoccur,
occur,we
wedont
dont
know
know where
wherethey
theywill
will occur,
occur,and
and we
we
dont
dont know
know how
how big
big they
theywill
willbe
be
Probabilistic (PSHA)
Assumes many scenarios
Consider all magnitudes
Consider all distances
Consider all effects

Ground
Ground
motion
motion
parameters
parameters

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Consists of four primary steps:
1. Identification and characterization of all sources
2. Characterization of seismicity of each source
3. Determination of motions from each source
4. Probabilistic calculations
PSHA
PSHAcharacterizes
characterizesuncertainty
uncertaintyin
in
location,
location,size,
size, frequency,
frequency,and
and effects
effects
of
of earthquakes,
earthquakes, and
and combines
combinesall
all of
of
them
them to
to compute
computeprobabilities
probabilitiesof
of
different
differentlevels
levelsof
of ground
groundshaking
shaking

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance
Need to specify distance measure
Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship
Vertical
VerticalFaults
Faults
rjb
rrup

rseis
rhypo

Seismogenic
depth

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance
Need to specify distance measure
Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship
Dipping
DippingFaults
Faults
rjb=0
rseis
rrup

rhypo

rjb
rseis & rrup
rhypo

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance
Where on fault is rupture most likely to occur?

Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
on where
whererupture
rupture
occurs
occurs

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance
Where is rupture most likely to occur? We dont know

Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
on where
whererupture
rupture
occurs
occurs

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance
Approach: Assume equal likelihood at any point
Characterize uncertainty probabilistically
rmin

rmax

pdf
pdffor
forsourcesourcesite
sitedistance
distance

fR(r)

rmin

rmax

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance
Two practical ways to determine fR(r)

rmin

rmax

Draw
Drawseries
seriesof
of
concentric
concentriccircles
circles
with
withequal
equalradius
radius
increment
increment
Measure
Measurelength
lengthof
offault,
fault,
LLi,,between
each pair
i between each pair
of
ofadjacent
adjacentcircles
circles
Assign
Assignweight
weightequal
equalto
to
LLi/L
to each
i/L to each
corresponding
corresponding
distance
distance

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance
Two practical ways to determine fR(r)

rmin

rmax

Linear source

Divide
Divideentire
entirefault
faultinto
into
equal
equallength
lengthsegments
segments
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
site
siteto
tocenter
centerof
ofeach
each
segment
segment
Create
Createhistogram
histogramof
of
source-site
source-sitedistance.
distance.
Accuracy
Accuracyincreases
increases
with
withincreasing
increasing
number
numberof
ofsegments
segments

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance

Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
area
areaelements
elements

Areal Source

Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
center
centerof
ofeach
eachelement
element
Create
Createhistogram
histogramof
of
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance

Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
volume
volumeelements
elements
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
center
centerof
ofeach
eachelement
element
Create
Createhistogram
histogramof
of
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance

Unequal
Unequalelement
elementareas?
areas?
Create
Createhistogram
histogramusing
using
weighting
weightingfactors
factors--weight
weight
according
accordingto
tofraction
fractionof
oftotal
total
source
sourcearea
area

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uncertainty in source-site distance

Quick
Quickvisualization
visualizationof
ofpdf?
pdf?
Use
Useconcentric
concentriccircle
circle
approach
approach--lets
letsyou
yousee
see
basic
basicshape
shapeof
ofpdf
pdfquickly
quickly

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Characterization of maximum magnitude
Determination of Mmax - same as for DSHA
Empirical correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
Theoretical determination
Slip rate correlations
Also
Alsoneed
needto
toknow
know
distribution
distributionof
of magnitudes
magnitudes

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Given source can produce different earthquakes
Low magnitude - often
Large magnitude - rare
Gutenberg-Richter
Southern California earthquake data - many faults
Counted number of earthquakes exceeding different
magnitude levels over period of many years

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

NM

log NM

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

log M

Mean
Meanannual
annual rate
rate
of
ofexceedance
exceedance
MM ==NNMM //TT

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

log M

Return
Returnperiod
period
(recurrence
(recurrenceinterval)
interval)
TTRR ==11/
/MM

0.01

100 yrs

0.001

1000 yrs

log TR

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

log M
10a

Gutenberg-Richter
Gutenberg-Richter
Recurrence
RecurrenceLaw
Law
log
logMM==aa--bM
bM

log TR

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law
log M = a - bM
Implies that earthquake magnitudes are
exponentially distributed (exponential pdf)
Can also be written as
ln M = - M

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Then
M = 10a - bM = exp[ - M]
where = 2.303a and = 2.303b.
For an exponential distribution,
fM(m) = e-m

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Neglecting events below minimum magnitude, m o
m = exp[ - (m - mo)]
where = exp[ - mo].
Then,
fM(m) = e-m-mo)

m > mo

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
For worldwide data (Circumpacific belt),
log m = 7.93 - 0.96M
M=6

m = 148 /yr

TR = 0.0067 yr

M=7

m = 16.2

TR = 0.062

M=8

m = 1.78

TR = 0.562

M = 12
m = 0.437
TR = 2.29
M
M>> 12
12every
everytwo
twoyears?
years?

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Every source has some maximum magnitude
Distribution must be modified to account for Mmax
Bounded G-R recurrence law

exp[ ( m m o )] exp[ ( m max m o )]

1 exp[ ( m max m o )]

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
log has
Every source
some
maximum
Bounded
G-R magnitude
m
Recurrence Law
Distribution must be modified
to account for Mmax

Bounded G-R recurrence law

exp[ ( m m o )] exp[ ( m max m o )]

1 exp[ ( m max m o )]

Mmax

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Law
Paleoseismic investigations
Show similar displacements in each earthquake
Inividual faults produce characteristic earthquakes
Characteristic earthquake occur at or near Mmax
Could be caused by geologic constraints
More research, field observations needed

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
log m
Seismicity data

Geologic data
Mmax

Characteristic
Earthquake
Recurrence
Law

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Predictive relationships
Standard error
log m- use to evaluate conditional probability
P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

ln Y

Y = Y*
ln Y
M = M*
R = R*

log R
Mmax

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Predictive relationships
Standard error - use to evaluate conditional probability

ln Y

P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

ln Y

Y = Y*
M = M*
R = R*

log R
M

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process - describes number of occurrences of an
event during a given time interval or spatial region.
1. The number of occurrences in one time interval are
independent of the number that occur in any other
time interval.
2. Probability of occurrence in a very short time interval is
proportional to length of interval.
3. Probability of more than one occurrence in a very short
time interval is negligible.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process
n e
P [N n ]
n!

where n is the number of occurrences and m is the


average number of occurrences in the time interval
of interest.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process
Letting = t
( t ) e t
P [N n ]
n!
n

Then
P [N 0] P [N 1] P [N 2] P [N 3] ... P [n ]
1 P [N 0 ]
1 e t

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process
P 1 e t

Consider an event that occurs, on average, every


1,000 yrs. What is the probability it will occur at
least once in a 100 yr period?
= 1/1000 = 0.001
P = 1 - exp[-(0.001)(100)] = 0.0952

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Temporal uncertainty
What is the probability it will occur at least once in
a 1,000 yr period?
P = 1 - exp[-(0.001)(1000)] = 0.632
Solving for ,

ln(1 p)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Temporal uncertainty
Then, the annual rate of exceedance for an event
with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs is
ln(1 0.1)

0.0021
50

The corresponding return period is TR = 1/ = 475 yrs.


For 2% in 50 yrs, = 0.000404/yr

TR = 2475 yrs

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Summary of uncertainties
Location

fR(r)

Source-site
Source-sitedistance
distancepdf
pdf

Size

fM(m)

Magnitude
Magnitudepdf
pdf

Effects

P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

Timing

P = 1 - e-t
Poisson
Poissonmodel
model

Attenuation
Attenuation
relationship
relationship
including
including
standard
standarderror
error

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
U

B1] + P[A

B2] + + P[A

P[A] = P[A

B N]

P[A] = P[A|B1]P[B1] + P[A|B2]P[B2] + + P[A|BN]P[BN]

B2

B1
A
B4

B3
B5

Total
Total
Probability
Probability
Theorem
Theorem

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
Applying total probability theorem,
P [Y y *] P [Y y * | X]P [ X] P [Y y * | X] f

( X)dx

where X is a vector of parameters.


We assume that M and R are the most important
parameters and that they are independent. Then,
P [Y y *] P [Y y * | m, r ] f M (m ) f R (r )dmdr

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
P [Y y *] P [Y y * | m, r ] f M ( m ) f R ( r )dmdr

Above equation gives the probability that y* will be


exceeded if an earthquake occurs. Can convert
probability to annual rate of exceedance by multiplying
probability by annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes.
y * P [Y y * | m, r ] f M (m ) f R (r )dmdr

where = exp[ - mo]

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
If the site of interest is subjected to shaking from more
than one site (say Ns sites), then
Ns

y * i P [Y y * | m, r ] f Mi (m ) f Ri (r )dmdr
i 1

For realistic cases, pdfs for M and R are too complicated


to integrate analytically. Therefore, we do it numerically.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
Dividing the range of possible magnitudes and distances
into NM and NR increments, respectively
NS NM NR

y * i P [Y y * | m j , r k ] f Mi (m j ) f Ri (r k )mr
i 1 j 1 k 1

This expression can be written, equivalently, as


NS NM NR

y * i P [Y y * | m j , r k ]P [M m j ]P [R r k ]
i 1 j 1 k 1

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
What does it mean?

All
Allpossible
possibledistances
distancesare
are
considered
considered--contribution
contributionof
of
each
eachisisweighted
weightedby
byits
its
probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence

NS NM NR

y * i P [Y y * | m j , r k ]P [M m j ]P [R r k ]
i 1 j 1 k 1

All
Allsites
sitesare
are
considered
considered

All
Allpossible
possibleeffects
effectsare
are
considered
considered--each
eachweighted
weighted
by
byits
itsconditional
conditionalprobability
probability
of
ofoccurrence
occurrence

All
Allpossible
possiblemagnitudes
magnitudesare
are
considered
considered--contribution
contributionof
of
each
eachisisweighted
weightedby
byits
its
probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
NM x NR possible combinations
Each produces some probability of exceeding y*
Must compute P[Y > y*|M=mj,R=rk] for all mj, rk

rN R

r1
m1 m2 m3

mNM

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
Compute conditional probability for each element on grid
Enter in matrix (spreadsheet cell)
ln Y

P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]


M=m2

P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]


P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]

ln Y

Y = y*

r1

r2

log R

r3
rN

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
Build hazard by:
computing conditional probability for each element
multiplying conditional probability by P[mj], P[rk], i
Repeat for each source - place values in same cells

rN R

P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]


P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]

r1
m1 m2 m3

mN M

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
When complete (all cells filled for all sources),
Sum all -values for that value of y*

rN R

P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]


P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]

r1
m1 m2 m3

mN M

y*

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Combining uncertainties - probability computations
Choose new value of y*
Repeat entire process
Develop pairs of (y*, y*) points

log y*

P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]

log TR

rN R

Seismic
Hazard
Curve

Plot

P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]


P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]

r1
m1 m2 m3

y*

mN M

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

log y*
amax

y*

Seismic hazard
curve shows the
mean annual rate of
exceedance of a
particular ground
motion parameter. A
seismic hazard curve
is the ultimate result
of a PSHA.

log TR

log TR

log amax

Combining uncertainties - probability computations

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Using seismic hazard curves

log TR

log amax

Probability of exceeding
amax = 0.30g in a 50 yr
period?
P = 1 - e-t
= 1 - exp[-(0.001)(50)]
= 0.049 = 4.9%
In a 500 yr period?

0.001

P = 0.393 = 39.3%
amax=0.30g

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Using seismic hazard curves

log TR

log amax

What peak acceleration has a


10% probability of being
exceeded in a 50 yr period?

0.0021

475 yrs

amax=0.21g

10% in 50 yrs: = 0.0021


or
TR = 475 yrs
Use seismic hazard
curve to find amax value
corresponding to
= 0.0021

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Using seismic hazard curves

Contribution of sources

log TR

log amax

Total
2
1
3
amax

Can break -values down


into contributions from
each source
Plot seismic hazard
curves for each source
and total seismic
hazard curve (equal to
sum of source curves)
Curves may not be
parallel, may cross
Shows which source(s)
most important

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

log TR

log amax

Using seismic hazard curves

amax, Sa

Can develop seismic hazard


curves for different ground
motion parameters
Peak acceleration
Spectral accelerations
Other
Choose desired -value
Read corresponding
parameter values from
seismic hazard curves

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

log TR

log amax

Using seismic hazard curves

amax, Sa

Can develop seismic hazard


curves for different ground
motion parameters
Peak acceleration
Spectral accelerations
Other
Choose desired -value
Read corresponding
parameter values from
seismic hazard curves

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


0.1

2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs
Crustal

Peak
Peakacceleration
acceleration

0.01

amax

Intraplate
0.001

Interplate
0.0001

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


0.1

2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs
SSa(T
= 3 sec)
a(T = 3 sec)
0.01

amax

Crustal
Intraplate

0.001

Interplate

0.0001

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Uniform hazard spectrum (UHS)
Find spectral acceleration values for different periods at constant
All Sa values have same -value
same probability of exceedance

Sa
Uniform
Uniform
Hazard
Hazard
Spectrum
Spectrum

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Common question:
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

8.5

25 km

0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01

50 km

0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02

75 km

0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02

100 km

0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02

125 km

0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01

150 km

0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00

175 km

0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00

200 km

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total hazard includes


contributions from all
combinations of M & R.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Common question:
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

8.5

25 km

0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01

50 km

0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02

75 km

0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02

100 km

0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02

125 km

0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01

150 km

0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00

175 km

0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00

Break hazard down into


contributions to see
where hazard is coming
from.

200 km

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

M=7.0 at R=75 km

Total hazard includes


contributions from all
combinations of M & R.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
USGS disaggregations
Seattle,
Seattle,WA
WA
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs(T
(TRR
==2475
2475yrs)
yrs)
SSa(T
= 0.2 sec)
a(T = 0.2 sec)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
USGS disaggregations
Olympia,
Olympia,WA
WA
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs(T
(TRR
==2475
2475yrs)
yrs)
SSa(T
= 0.2 sec)
a(T = 0.2 sec)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
USGS disaggregations
Olympia,
Olympia,WA
WA
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs(T
(TRR
==2475
2475yrs)
yrs)
SSa(T
= 1.0 sec)
a(T = 1.0 sec)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Another disaggregation parameter

ln y * ln y

ln y
= -1.6

ln Y M=m
2

= -0.8

For
Forlow
lowy*,
y*,most
most
values
valueswill
willbe
benegative
negative
For
Forhigh
highy*,
y*,most
most
values
valueswill
willbe
bepositive
positive
and
andlarge
large

= 1.2

= 2.2

ln Y

Y = y*

r1

r2

log R

r3
rN

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Not all uncertainty can be described by probability
distributions
Most appropriate model may not be clear
Attenuation relationship
Magnitude distribution
etc.
Experts may disagree on model parameters
Fault segmentation
Maximum magnitude
etc.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Attenuation
Model

Magnitude
Distribution

Mmax

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

BJF
(0.5)

A&S
(0.5)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Attenuation
Model

Sum
Sumof
ofweighting
weightingfactors
factors
coming
comingout
outof
ofeach
eachnode
node
must
mustequal
equal1.0
1.0
BJF

Magnitude
Distribution

Mmax

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

(0.5)

A&S
(0.5)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Attenuation
Model

Magnitude
Distribution

Mmax

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

BJF
(0.5)

A&S
(0.5)

0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Attenuation
Model

Magnitude
Distribution

Mmax

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

0.07
0.21
0.07

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

0.03
0.09
0.03

G-R
(0.7)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

0.07
0.21
0.07

Char.
(0.3)

7.0 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.5 (0.2)

0.03
0.09
0.03

BJF
(0.5)

Final
Finalvalue
valueof
ofYYis
is
obtained
obtainedas
as
weighted
weightedaverage
averageof
of
all
allvalues
valuesgiven
givenby
by
terminal
terminalbranches
branches
of
oflogic
logictree
tree

A&S
(0.5)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Recent PSHA logic tree included:
Cascadia interplate
2 attenuation relationships
2 updip boundaries
3 downdip boundaries
2 return periods
4 segmentation models
2 maximum magnitude approaches
192 terminal branches

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Recent PSHA logic tree included:
Cascadia intraplate
2 intraslab geometries
3 maximum magnitudes
2 a-values
2 b-values
24 terminal branches

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Recent PSHA logic tree included:
Seattle Fault and Puget Sound Fault
2 attenuation relationships
3 activity states
3 maximum magnitudes
2 recurrence models
2 slip rates
72 terminal branches for Seattle Fault
72 terminal branches for Puget Sound Fault

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis


Logic tree methods
Recent PSHA logic tree included:
Crustal areal source zones
7 source zones
2 attenuation relationships
3 maximum magnitudes
2 recurrence models
3 source depths
252 terminal branches
Total
Total PSHA
PSHArequired
requiredanalysis
analysisof
of 612
612 combinations
combinations

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