Final Working Paper HAZUS 091028 Rev

WorkingwithHAZUSMH
BySilvanaVCroope
AworkingpapersubmittedtotheUniversityofDelaware
UniversityTransportationCenter(UDUTC)
September1,2009
DISCLAIMER:
Thecontentsofthisworkingpaperreflecttheviewsofthe
authors,whoareresponsibleforthefactsandtheaccuracy
of the information presented herein. This document is
disseminatedunderthesponsorshipoftheDepartmentof
TransportationUniversityTransportationCentersProgram,
in the interest of information exchange. The U.S.
Government assumes no liability for the contents or use
thereof.
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TableofContents
TableofContents................................................................................................................3
ListofFigures......................................................................................................................4
ListofTables.......................................................................................................................6
Introduction........................................................................................................................7
Background.....................................................................................................................7
ObjectiveofthisWorkingPaper...................................................................................11
Scope.............................................................................................................................11
OverviewofHAZUSMH................................................................................................11
TheHAZUSMHSoftware..............................................................................................13
OverviewoftheWorkingPaper...................................................................................13
UnderstandingHAZUSMHFloodAnalysis.......................................................................13
Step1:IdentifyHazards....................................................................................................16
Step2:ProfileHazards......................................................................................................20
Step3:InventoryofAssets...............................................................................................35
Step4:EstimateLosses.....................................................................................................39
DiscussionandEvaluationHAZUSResults.....................................................................52
ApplicationtotheCaseStudy...........................................................................................54
Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................59
References........................................................................................................................60
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ListofFigures
Figure1CIRDSSSystemDynamicsDiagram......................................................................7
Figure2FEMAHAZUSMHRiskAssessmentandOutputs...............................................12
Figure3FloodModelSchematicsforHAZUSMH............................................................14
Figure4Level1AnalysisSummarizedOutputExample...................................................16
Figure5RegionCreatedtoDoAnalysesinHAZUSMH..................................................17
Figure6BaseMapbuiltinHAZUSMHforSeafordAreaStudy.......................................18
Figure7FloodImpactonBridgeonrouteUS13A........................................................20
Figure8DEMErrorMessageinHAZUSMH.....................................................................22
Figure9InstructionsforObtainingSpecificDEMforHAZUSMH....................................22
Figure10NewDEMforSeafordArea...............................................................................23
Figure11DEMIntegratedintoHAZUSMH......................................................................23
Figure12BuildingStreamNetworkinHAZUSMH...........................................................24
Figure13DefiningtheScenarioforAnalysisinHAZUSMH.............................................25
Figure14DefiningAreaforFurtherAnalyses...................................................................25
Figure15OptionforRiverineAnalysesType....................................................................26
Figure16HAZUSMHWarningandSuggestiontoEnableSoftwareOperation...............27
Figure17TimetoCompleteSingleReturnAnalysis.........................................................27
Figure18SingleReturnPeriodMap.................................................................................27
Figure19AnnualLossMap...............................................................................................28
Figure20WhatifLeveeProtectionScenario................................................................29
Figure21WhatifFlowRegulationScenarioProcess....................................................30
Figure22WarningandSuggestiontoRunRiverineFlowRegulationAnalysis................30
Figure23WhatifFlowRegulationMap........................................................................30
Figure24FloodwaterVelocityEstimationMap...............................................................31
Figure25FederalDisastersDamageGraphSussexDE..................................................34
Figure26InventoryDataforHighwaySegmentsinHAZUSMH....................................36
Figure27HighwaySegmentsintheHAZUSMHStudyAreaMap.................................37
Figure28RoadsTablesfromHAZUSMHSoftwareandDataMILCenterline................37
Figure29DamageFunctionforTransportationSystem...................................................41
Figure30FloodDateinAgriculturalParameterforAnalysis...........................................42
Figure31SettingupIndirectEconomicLossParameters(1)...........................................43
Figure32FloodWarningAssumptionsforAnalysis.........................................................44
Figure33ErrorMessageforAnnualLossAnalysis...........................................................44
Figure34PreparingforAnnualizedLossAnalysis............................................................45
Figure35SelectingAvailableResultstoView..................................................................46
Figure36SeafordAreaAnnualLossesMapofDepth......................................................47
Figure37SummaryReportsOptions................................................................................47
Figure38QuickAssessmentReportforaSingleReturnPeriod.......................................51
Figure39ComparisonbetweenGlobalSummaryforAnnualLossandSingleReturn
PeriodLevee...................................................................................................................52
Figure40DamagerelatedtoUS13inSussexCounty.......................................................54
Figure41DetoursSetUpduringtheFloodofJune25,2006...........................................55
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Figure42STAPLEECriteriaforEvaluatingMitigationMeasures......................................56
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ListofTables
Table1GISAnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructure............................8
Table2HAZUSMHMR3AnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructure.......9
Table3HAZUSMHFloodModelAttributesforLevel1Analysis.....................................15
Table4HazardsIdentificationforWorkingwithHAZUSMH...........................................19
Table5HazardIdentificationandCharacterization.........................................................19
Table6IdentificationofRequiredHazardDataforLevel1Analysis...............................20
Table7HAZUSRiverineFloodHazardAnalysisProcess...................................................21
Table8TypesofHazardsAnalyses...................................................................................28
Table9ProfileHazardforCaseStudy...............................................................................32
Table10SimilarFederalDisastersandDamagebetween1962and2006inSussex
County...............................................................................................................................34
Table11FEMAsHighwaySystemClassification..............................................................38
Table12SummarizedReportforTransportationSystemDollarExposure......................48
Table13SummarizedReportforVehicleDollarExposureforDayandNight.................48
Table14SummarizedReportofEstimationforDebris....................................................49
Table15SummaryReportforAnnualizedDirectEconomicLossesforBuildings............49
Table16SummaryReportforDirectEconomicLossforVehiclesDayandNight............50
Table17HAZUSMHShelterSummaryReport.................................................................50
Table18SummarizedMitigationMeasuresbasedonHAZUSMHandHistoryfor
TransportationInfrastructureRoads..............................................................................57
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Introduction
Background
ThisworkingpaperservesasbackgroundresearchforthePhDdissertationtitled
ManagingCriticalCivilInfrastructureSystemsforDisasterResilience:AChallenge.The
overallobjectiveofthisresearchistodevelopaDecisionSupportSystemtoimprovethe
resilienceofcriticalinfrastructure.Thisinvolvestheexplorationofthepotentialimpacts
ofnaturaldisastersoninfrastructureoperationandmanagement.Thisincludes
understandingthenatureofoperationsandmanagement,thedataandtoolstosupport
decisionmakingandananalysisoftheconsequencesoffailureordegradedoperations
andperformance.Thisalsoincludestheuseofexistingcomputationalsystemsto
developageographicalcontext,civilinfrastructuresystemsanalysis,assetmanagement
systems,andinsightsintomitigationstrategiestodevelopmentthesystem.
Themodel,referredtoastheCriticalInfrastructureResilienceDecisionSupportSystem
(CIRDSS),usedtheconceptofresiliencetosupportinfrastructuredecisionmakingusing
SystemsDynamics.TheframeworkisshowninFigure1.
Figure1CIRDSSSystemDynamicsDiagram
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Toimplementthisframework,inputstothesystemdynamicsmodelaregenerated
usingGISandHAZUSMHthatdescribetheoverallanalysisoftheresilienceofan
infrastructuresystem.Thesystemisthenanalyzedusingsystemsdynamics.STELLAis
graphicallyorientedmodelingsoftwareusedtodevelopthesystemsdynamicsmodels.
TheJune25,2006floodeventinSeaford,Delawareisusedtoillustratetheconcepts
anddemonstratehowthecomplexsystemchangesovertime.
TheanalysisdevelopedinGISandHAZUSMHisnotrepeatedinSTELLA.GISandHAZUS
MHareusedtogeneratemapsforvulnerabilityassessment,andestimateexposure.The
Level2analysisinHAZUSMHorganizesandstructuresrelevantdata.Theresultsfrom
GISareshowninTable1.Themapsoriginallydevelopedarenotreadableinthistable,
butincludedtodemonstratehowtoorganizeresults.
Table1GISAnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructure
System
GIS(ArcInfo)
Results
Description
Fromthelefttotheright:
DetoursSetUpduringtheFlood
ofJune25,2006(DelDOTs
papermap),
SeafordStudyArea,
SeafordAreaElevationProfilein
3DImage,
RainPrecipitationoverSeaford,
SeafordFloodedAreaand
ImpactedBridges,
SeafordRoadNetworkand
DetoursAnalysis,
LocationofDamaged
InfrastructureintheSeaford
FloodedArea.
Event information supplied and maps
developed can help direct relief
supplies to areas of critical need and
give out-of-state teams knowledge of
local terrain and access to places.
TheresultsfromHAZUSMHareshowninTable2,includingmaps,tables
andreports,helpingorganizeallexistingoutputs.
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Table2HAZUSMHMR3AnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructure
System
Results
Comments
Fromthelefttotheright:
BaseMapbuiltinHAZUSMHfor
SeafordArea(includelimitedarea
aroundUS13),
SeafordAreaAnnualLossesMap
ofDepth,
WhatifLeveeProtection
Scenario,
WhatifFlowRegulation
Scenario,
FloodwaterVelocityEstimation
Scenario,
DamagerelatedtoUS13inSussex
County,
(Thereisanembeddedmitigation
measureforwarningnot
reflectedintheimages).
Organizedinformationforhelping
interpretresults(lefttoright)
HazardsIdentificationfor
WorkingwithHAZUSMH,
HAZUSMH
HazardIdentificationand
MR3
Characterization,
ProfileHazardforCaseStudy,
SimilarFederalDisastersand
Damagebetween1962and2006
inSussexCounty,
FederalDisastersDamageGraph
SussexDE,
AnalysesResults
SummarizedReportfor
TransportationSystemDollar
Exposure,
SummarizedReportofEstimation
forDebris(require112
truckloads),
SummarizedMitigationMeasures
basedonHAZUSMHandHistory
forTransportationInfrastructure
Roads,
HAZUSMHgivesnovaluefordirect
economiclossanalysisfor
transportation.
TransportationInventorytableis
adjustedinexcelformodeling.
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TheitemsinitalicsintheAnalysisResultsforHAZUSMHareimportantforthemodelin
STELLA.TheseitemsinitalicsincludedatausedinSTELLAandmitigationoptions
accordingtotheFEMASTAPLEEcriteriaforbeingafeasiblemitigationmeasure.The
mitigationoptionsincludeenhancingtheresilienceofthesystemasopposedtoa
regularrebuildingorrepairoftheinfrastructuresystemsegmentsaccordingtoits
originaldesign.TheHighwayinventoryinHAZUSMHisnotinaproperformattobean
inputinSTELLA.ThisdataexportedtoEXCELisusedinthemodelingandsimulation
processimportedintoSTELLA,whicheachnamedcolumninEXCELmustmatchthe
elementsinthemodelinSTELLA.Also,tosimplifythe demonstrationofthemodel,a
samplesizefromthisinfrastructurewasdeterminedUS13.
ThedatarelatedtoUS13wasobtainedbycomparingtheHighwayinventoryfrom
HAZUSMH,andtheroaddatafromDataMILclippingittofitthestudyregioninHAZUS
MHandthenhighlightingtheHAZUSMHsegmentlinkstoidentifytheirgiven
identificationcode.ThisprocessusedtheSelectFeaturetool,becausewhenopening
theinventorytableoutfromArcMaporHAZUSMHinterface,theavailabletablesdid
notcarrytogetherintheinformationfornameofUS13segmentsandthevaluefor
cost.Also,tohighlightUS13inGISforaqualitativenetworkassessment,thecreation
ofthisnewlayerhelpssetuptheboundaryfortheanalysislateron.Themodelin
STELLAcannothandlethesegeographicalspatialanalyses,thereforetheneedfor
integratingtheresultsfromthesedifferentsystems.
WorkingwithSTELLAimpliesworkingwithboth:modelconstructionandlearning
process.Duringthemodelconstructionitisimportanttofollowthissequence(isee
systems.2004):
definetheissuedynamicthinking;
developthehypothesis10,000meterandsystemasacausethinking;
testthehypothesistoreplicatethedynamicphenomenon,andfor
robustness(modelinsteadystate,testonethingatthetime,tofind
limitationsandwhenitstopsmakingsense).Robustnesstestshelp
buildingconfidenceinmodelsformulationsandidentifyhighleverage
points(bigreaction);
drawconclusions;and
assessrobustness.
TheseanalysesdevelopedinSTELLAworkwithsomeelementsoftheframework(mostly
notincludedininitialGISandHAZUSMHanalyses),including
CriticalInfrastructureManagementSystemincludingitssubsystems
- Functional(AssetManagement)Subsystem(e.g.
reconstructioncost),
- FinancialSubsystem(e.g.financialresourcesourceFEMA),
- DecisionMakingSubsystem(e.g.DelDOTdecisionmakerand
protectivemeasuresdecisions);
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ResilienceManagementInformationSystem(e.g.disastertimingand
resilienceofcalculations),and
ResultsPresentationSystem(e.g.userandagencybenefits).
ObjectiveofthisWorkingPaper
ThisworkingpaperdescribeshowHAZUSMHworksandgeneratestheoutputsthatare
laterincludedintheSTELLAmodeltosimulatedifferentscenariostosupportDecision
Makingforimprovingsystemresilience.TheUsingHAZUSMHforRiskAssessment
HowToGuidefortheHAZUSMH(FEMA2004)presentsseveralwaystoworkwith
differenthazards.Theguideprovidesandsuggestsorganizingprinciplesintheformof
worksheets,presentsconcepts,anddocumentsbasiccommandsrequiredtoperform
analyses,howtointerpretresults,andexamples.
Scope
TheapplicationofHAZUSMHdescribedheresimplyillustrateshowthesoftwareisused
togeneratetheoutputsthatareusedasinputstothemodeldevelopedinSTELLA.This
meansthatnotalloptionsforandthefullcapabilitiesofHAZUSMHarediscussedhere.
Similarlythemethods,models,dataandinterfaceusedinHAZUSMHarenotevaluated
orcritiqued.
AccordingtotheHAZUSMHmanual(FEMA2004),hazardmitigationisactionstakento
reducethedestructionanddisruptioneffectsintheeventoffuturedisasters.These
effortsoftenresultinbetterandmorecosteffectivemethodsforrespondingtoand
recoveringfromadisaster.MitigationPlansfornaturalhazardsaremandatoryforstate
andlocalentitiestobeeligibleforFEMAfundsundertheDisasterMitigationAct(DMA)
2000enactedbytheCongress(reference).Planningformitigationisintendedtohelp
communitiesidentifyeffectivepolicies,actionsandtoolstodecreasefuturelosses.In
thissense,hazardmitigationisbasedonriskassessmentstoestimatesocialand
economicimpactofhazardsonpeople,buildings,services,facilitiesandinfrastructure.
ThedatainventoryusedinHAZUSMHisfromnationalandregionaldatabasessuchas
theUnitedStatesCensus,andcanbetailoredtomoredetailedanalyses.
ThefocusisonfloodsusingtheHAZUSMHlevel1analysesandexistingembedded
inventory.TheanalysisusesdatafromtherealeventthathappenedinJuneof2006in
Delaware.
OverviewofHAZUSMH
ThebasichazardmitigationplanningprocessaccordingtoFEMA(FEMA2004)includes
organizingresources,assessingrisk,developingamitigationplan,implementingthe
plan,andmonitoringtheprogress.HAZUSMHintegratesthesephasesofmitigation
planningbyidentifyinghazards,profilinghazards,inventoryingassets,estimatinglosses,
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andconsideringmitigationoptions.ThedetailsforeachHAZUSMHactivitieslistedare
showninFigure2.
Figure2FEMAHAZUSMHRiskAssessmentandOutputs
Source:basedonUsingHAZUSMHforRiskAssessmentHowToGuide(FEMA2004).
SuggestionsforhowtoworkwithHAZUSMHformitigationplanningincludesthe
participationofdecisionmakersaspartoftheteamtoassessrisk.InfactintheCIRDSS
frameworkandinSTELLAthedecisionmakersareincludedtodefinewhatisneeded,
whattheywanttohaveaccomplished,andtheboundariesandtimeforsuchworktobe
developed.
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TheHAZUSMHSoftware
HAZUSMHwasdevelopedbyFEMAtostartaddressingtheneedforanational
applicablestandardizedmethodologytodoriskassessment,analyzingpotentiallosses
fromdifferentandmultihazardsimpacts.Basedontheanalysesresults,itspurposeis
tohelpgetinsightfordevelopingmitigationstrategiesandprojects.
ToproperlyworkwithHAZUSMHitisimportanttokeeptrackofupdates,download
andinstalladditionalPatches.Thesepatchesenabletoolsandfixproblemswith
earlierversionsofthesoftwarerelatedtoperformanceorfunctionsinHAZUSMH.The
HAZUSMHbeingdescribedinthisworkingpaperisversion3HAZUSMHMR3.Version
MR3includesPatch2fromFEMAswebsiteunderresourceRecordDetails(FEMA2007).
VersionMR3alsoincludesdownloadsforServicePackreleasesfromESRIfortheArcGIS
Desktop9.2:
ServicePack3(ESRI2007b),and
ServicePack5(ESRI2007c).
EventhoughearlierversionsofHAZUSMHwillwork,itisimportanttoworkwiththe
mostrecentversionandcompanionmanual(inthiscaseMR3),becauseupdatesdisable
thefunctionoficonsinearlierversions.However,explanationsindifferentHAZUSMH
documentshelpsgetamorecompleteandbetterunderstandingofwhatisincludedand
howtoworkwithHAZUSMH.Specifically,theapplicationmanualfortheFloodModule
isontheApplicationDVD(BayBridgePublicInformationOffice2007).Thepathto
accessthismanualis
inserttheDVD>rightclicktoopenitscontents(donotrunthe
program);
underManuals>Flood>UserManual;
identify/searchfortheother(asecondmanual)specificmanualfor
flood:FloodInformationTool.Boththesemanualsdefinehowtodo
theanalysisforthestudyregiondefinedinHAZUSMH.
OverviewoftheWorkingPaper
ThisworkingpaperbeginsbyprovidinganoverviewofHAZUSMHforfloodanalysis.
Eachofthefoursteps(Step1:IdentifyHazards,Step2:ProfileHazards,Step3:Inventory
ofAssets,Step4:EstimateLosses)isthendescribedinsomedetail.Finally,comments
andobservationsarepresented.
UnderstandingHAZUSMHFloodAnalysis
TheprocessforestimatingimpactsusingtheFloodModelisshownintheschematicin
Figure3(FEMA2007).
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Figure3FloodModelSchematicsforHAZUSMH
Source:HAZUSMHApplicationFloodManual(FEMA2007).
Themodelincludesandsummarizesinventoriesandcalculationstogiveinsightfor
mitigationplansinaneasytouseversion.Themodelincludestwoanalyticalprocesses:
floodhazardanalysisanddamageanalysis(lossestimation).Thehazardanalysismodel
includesthespatialvariationinflooddepthandvelocityusingfrequency,discharge,and
groundelevation.Theoutputsfromtheseanalysesareusedtodeterminestructuraland
economicdamagethroughtheuseofvulnerabilitycurves.Reportsandmapsarethe
finaloutputsfromthemodelforusers.
Thefloodhazardmodulemodelsbothriverineandcoastalfloods.Afloodhazardisthe
resultoftherelationshipbetweendepthoffloodingandtheannualchanceof
inundationtothatdepth(FEMA2007).Floodhazardisdefinedasthechancethata
certainmagnitudeoffloodingisexceededinanygivenyear(FEMA2007).Theprimary
factorsthatcontributetofloodlossesarewaterdepth,durationandvelocityinthe
floodplain.TheHAZUSMHFloodModelcanbeusedtoestimatefloodlossesdueto
depthofflooding.Flashfloodsarenotincludedinthemodelscapability.Floodwarning
ispossibletointegrateintheanalysisasawhatifscenario,whichusesDaycurves(a
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representationoftherelationshipbetweenleadtimeanddamagereduction)fromthe
U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineersapproach(USGS2006;EPA2004).
SomedifferentaspectsofHAZUSMHshownintheUserManualoftheApplicationare
highlightedtoillustratehowHAZUSMHcanbeused(FEMA2007):
hasthecapabilityfor3levelsofanalysis:
1. WorkswithembeddeddatafromtheHAZUSMHsoftware,
2. Usestheinputofrecentanddetaileddataforspecificanalysis,and
3. Adjustsexistingmodelsinthesoftware.Inthisresearchthislevelof
analysisisnotused.
offersenoughflexibilitysupporttheevaluationofhazardtypesnotincluded
asmodelsinthecurrentsoftwarebyusing,forexample,theexistingGIS
functionsorusingprobabilityorhistoricaldata;
offers5stepsfordoingriskassessmentconcludingwithlossestimationand
mitigationoptions(usuallynotincludedinriskassessments).These5steps
wereshowninFigure2.ThefiveStepsshowninFigure2showhowHAZUS
MHisorganizedandthebasicstepsoneshouldfollowtogetthedesired
outputs.CurrentHAZUSMHcapabilitiesincludecalculationsofexposureand
theuseofspecialtoolstodolevel2andlevel3analysis.Toolsusedfor
estimatinglosseshavechangedovertime,thereforeitisimportanttofollow
andupgradethesoftwareaccordingtothelatestversionreleased.
ForthecasestudydevelopedinthisresearchaLevel1Analysisisused.
Table3showstheHazusFloodModelattributesforthislevelofanalysis.
Table3HAZUSMHFloodModelAttributesforLevel1Analysis
DigitalTerrainorElevationModel(DEM) typicallyUSGS30meterDEM.
Hazard
FloodModelusesdefaulthazarddata(HydrologicUnitCodesand
accumulationmethodology)todevelopapproximatestreamcenterlines.
USGSregressionequationsandgagerecordsusedtodeterminedischarge
frequencycurves.
HAZUSdefaultdata.Censusblocks dataallocationofviastatisticalanalysis,
Inventory
andbroadassumptionsforfirstfloorheight(foundationdistributions)
Agricultureproducts,vehicles,essentialfacilities,sometransportationand
utilityfacilities.
BroadregionaldefaultcurvesbasedonFIAorUSACEdepthdamagecurves.
DamageCurves
Libraryofcurvesavailableforuserselection.Usermaycreatetheirown
functionusinglibrarycurvesasguides.
Areaweighteddamageestimatesbasedonthedepthoffloodingwithina
DamageEstimation
givencensusblock.Lossesdevelopedforgeneralbuildingstock,essential
facilities,vehicles,agriculturalproducts,selecttransportationandutility
features.
Costofrepair/replacement,shelterneeds,temporaryhousing,vehicles,
DirectLoss/Impacts
crop&livestocklosses.
Debrisdevelopedfromdirectdamagetobuildings(floorareasfromthe
InducedLosses
generalbuildingstock).
IndirectLoss/Impacts Sectorialeconomicimpacts.
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ContinueTable3.
TypicalApplications
Floodmitigation/regulatorypolicymaking,regional,state,federallevels
Prefeasibilitystudies
Realtimeemergencyresponsewithnowarning
Preliminaryplanning,zoningdevelopment
Source:ModifiedfromHAZUSMHApplicationFloodManual(FEMA2007).
ALevel1analysisusingdefaultdatainvolvesagreatdealofuncertaintyassociatedwith
thelossestimate.Thistransfersagreaterresponsibilityforinterpretingresultsto
experts.Figure4summarizesthepossiblelossesincludedintheanalysisoutput.
Figure4Level1AnalysisSummarizedOutputExample
Source:HAZUSMHApplicationDVDFloodManual(FEMA2007).
Step1:IdentifyHazards
Step1inHAZUSMHistoidentifyhazards,whichincludesdefiningtheregionforstudy,
creatingamapforthearea,andidentifyingthehazard.Consequentlytheoutputsare
thestudyregion,abasemap,andalistofhazardsofinterest.
ChoosetheDVDfortheregionselectedtobeanalyzed.Inthiscase,theareaselectedis
SeafordinthesouthernpartoftheStateofDelaware.Theregionisidentifiedasa
singlejurisdictionarea.Thestudyareamapshouldincludeabiggerregiontohelp
developsolutionsthatarenotconstrainedduetothesmallorlimitedarea.However,
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becauseHAZUSMHincludesseveralcalculationfunctions,asmallerareawillgive
resultsinasmalleramountofprocessingtime,andavoiderrorsduetoheavyprocessing
demands.ThisisveryimportantwhenincludingtheresultsfromHAZUSMHinthe
modelinSTELLAbecauseitimpactsinthequalityofsupportfordecisionmaking.
PuttheDVDforthechosenregioninthecomputer;thishelpsruntheprogramwithno
furtherrequestsfordatasourceaccessinput.OpeningtheHAZUSMHsoftware,choose
createanewregionandfollowthesesteps:
>next,nameanddescribetheregion,ifdesired
>next,selectahazardmodule
>next,selectanaggregationlevel(State,County,CensusTrack,Census
Block)(IftheDVDROMcontainingtheinventorydatafortheState
selectedisnotavailablepriortotheselectionofthecountyarea,a
requestforloadingtheDVDwillcomeupinthescreen.Censusblocksare
thesmallestgeographicunitforthismethodology,generallyboundedby
streets,streamsandstatisticalentities(i.e.metropolitanarea,census
tracts).Censusblockaredefinedtobeashomogeneousaspossiblein
termsofincome,populationandothercharacteristics.Independentof
theaggregationlevelchosenthefloodmodelresultsarecomputedatthe
censusblocklevel,notaffectingtheresolutionofresults.)
>next,selecttheStatebyusingthedropdownarroworbyusingtheshow
mapandclickingonthedesiredplaces)
>next,selectacountyorcounties
>next,selectcensustracksfromthelistorfromthemap
>nextorselectiondone.
Apromptshowsthattheregionwascreatedsuccessfully,andthatnowitistimeto
openaregion>SelectaRegion(theonecreatedwiththenamegiven)>next>
finish.TheGISsoftwarefromESRIstartstoprocessanddisplaysthemap,butthe
interfaceisspecificfortheHAZUSMHsoftware.Forthisresearch,Figure5isthe
definedregionfortheanalysis.
Figure5RegionCreatedtoDoAnalysesinHAZUSMH
Source:CreatedusingHAZUSMH(FEMA2007).
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Thenexttasksaretocreatethebasemap,andchecktheGeographicCoordinate
System,DatumandUnitsusedbyHAZUS.Theseareimportantdetailsformatchingup
withtheotherdetaileddatathatcanbeaddedtotheanalysiswiththepropermatching
scaleandanalysis,notonlyprojectionsontheflyenabledbyArcGISArcInfo.These
projectionsare:
GCS_North_American_1983,
D_North_American_1983,
Degree.
Inthiscase,iftheavailablecomplementarydatatobeintegratedintoHAZUSisin
anotherCoordinateSystem,thelayersmustbeprojectedtothatspecification.The
additionalavailabledatatocomplementtheanalysisinHAZUSMHforDelawareforthe
studyincludetheShapefileforbridgesandthecenterlinegivenbyDelDOT,andthedata
downloadedfromDataMIL.However,thiscasestudyusestheexistinginventorydatain
HAZUSMHandconsiderstheroaddatafromDataMILtoanalyzeandvalidatethe
outputsformitigationstrategiesdevelopedinHAZUSMH.Thisdatasetisclippedto
properlymatchwiththeotherdatasets.TheclipprocessisthesameasinArcInfo
undertheAnalysisToolsinArcToolbox.TheenhancedareaisshowninFigure6.This
additionaldatanotintegratedintoHAZUSMH,isjustbroughtinanddisplayed,andis
notusedintheanalysisforriskassessment.
Figure6BaseMapbuiltinHAZUSMHforSeafordAreaStudy
Thenexttaskistoidentifythehazardtypefortheimpactassessment.Theparticular
eventonwhichtheanalysesarefocusingisonethatoccurredonJune25,2006.This
eventwasofthescaleofa100yearflood.TheSeafordfloodisclassifiedasriverine
flooding.Riverinefloodingischaracterizedbytheaccumulationofrunofffromrainfall
orsnowmeltsuchthatthevolumeofflowexceedsthecapacityofwaterwaychannels
(FEMA2004),withwaterspreadingoutovertheadjacentland.Theflowisdownstream,
forwhichinundation,duration,andvelocitydependsonseveralfactorsincluding
topographyandstormcharacteristics.ThespecificfloodunderinvestigationofJune
2006canbecharacterizedasshowninTable4.
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Table4HazardsIdentificationforWorkingwithHAZUSMH
Potential
Hazard
Hazard
of
Interest
Riverine
Flood
Riverine
Flood
Description
Sourceof
Information
On6/25/06a100year floodoccurred duetoahuge

amountofrainfall(12inchesinsomeareas)whichcaused
seriousdamageanddestructiontoroadsandbridge
infrastructure(49roadnetworkpointsinSussexCounty).
The49identifiedpointsconsistedof:28roads(segments)
withhighwater,6roadclosures,2washedoutbridges,12
roadfailures,1sinkhole.Laterinspectionsshowed9
bridgeswithmajorproblems(i.e.replacestructures,flow
infilltorestorestreambedunderthebridge).Minor
bridgesproblemsincludedrepairsoferoded
embankments,andfillandriprapreplacement.Flood
elevationwas30feet.StateofEmergencydeclaredat2:30
PM6/26/2006.Seafordislocatedat3838 41 N,
7536 58 W(38.644654,75.616107).
DelDOT TMC
andother
Sectors,DEOS,
DataMil,
SpatLab
Source:ModifiedfromHowToGuideWorksheet11(FEMA2004).
Table4isasimplifiedversionoftheWorksheet11intheHAZUSMHguide(FEMA
2004)thatfacilitatestheimplementationoftasksgeneratingoutputsfortherisk
assessmentprocess.ThenextworksheetinHAZUSMHisahazardoreventsummary
description,whereamatchismadebetweenthehazardidentifiedbydecisionmakers
andthehazardtobeusedinfurtheranalysis.TheworksheetisshowninTable5.Here
theavailableinformationrelativetotheriskofeachregionalhazardisused.Asthis
hazardhasbeenspecifiedforthiscasestudy,onewouldcompletecolumnA(decision
makers)andB(technicians/researchers)withthesamehazard:flood(riverine).Table7
completestheadditionofrelevant/historicinformation.Thefloodeventsselectedfrom
historicalavailabledataincludedinthistableexcludedeventsclassifiedascoastalfloods
butincludedseverestormevents.
Table5HazardIdentificationandCharacterization
A B
Hazard
Hazard
Years
No.of
Events
Flood
1962to
4
Flood
(Riverine) (Riverine) 2006
Impacts
(2006US$)
#126 $21,391,487
#1017$8,907,958
#1205$3,721,100
#1654$370,000
40families
temporarily
homeless.
AvailableDataSources
andMaps
FEMADisasterResearch
ResultsforSussexCounty
(2007).
PERIPresidentialDisaster
Declarations(2007).
WBOCNews(Parsons
2006).
Source:modifiedfromHowToGuide(FEMA2004).
Sourcesofinformationforthistablearevaried.Theimpactindollarsofeachdeclared
disasterispublicinformationavailableatFEMAswebsite.However,thisvaluedoesnot
reflectthetotalamountgrantedbecauseinpracticedamageassessmentbyFEMA
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techniciansincludesafieldvisittocheckthemostdamagedsitesandingeneral,only
30%ofthevaluespecifiedbylocalengineersisawarded.TohaveaFederaldisasteran
eventmustcauseaminimumofUS$1millionindamage.Inthissenseonecould
assumethattherewasaroundUS$3millionindamagetothetransportation
infrastructureatthisparticularevent.Newsmediaalsoprovidesinformation.For
example,theimageinFigure7showsthefloodimpactonabridgeinthecasestudy
area.
Figure7FloodImpactonBridgeonrouteUS13A
Source:ImageinWBOC(Parsons2006).
TheothertableusedintheHAZUSHowToguideforthefloodanalysisisshownina
simplifiedviewinTable6.Thehazardofinterestisconsistentwiththechoicemadein
Table4.
Table6IdentificationofRequiredHazardDataforLevel1Analysis
HazardData/Map
LocalDataStatusCriteria
Hazardof
Requirement
Interest
RequiredFormat
RequiredCoordinate
(ArcViewrequired)
System(Lat/Long
(Table3)
required)
FloodZoneMaps
Flood
DigitalElevationModel
BaseFloodElevation
Readyfor
HAZUSMH
Source:modifiedfromHAZUSMHHowToGuideWorksheet21(FEMA2004).
Step2:ProfileHazards
Step2profilesthehazards.Heretheinformationrelatedtofloodingthatisprovidedby
HAZUSMHisusedtoassessrisk.Thehistoriceventdataforthefloodisnotprovidedby
HAZUSMH,butitprovidesstreamgaugedatashowinghighwatermarksreachedin
pastfloodsnotrelatedtotheyear.Floodzonemapscanhelpfloodanalysisbymapping
floodingproneareasaccordingtodifferentcategoriesofevents.Thishelpsdefiningthe
chancethataparticularfloodcanoccuratagivenlocationconsideringrainfallor
levee/damfailureforexample.
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Adatagapanalysesconsidersthedatagivenandthedatasourcesrequiredfor
completingthedataforanalysesinHAZUSMH.Sincefloodingisoneofthemodel
optionsinHAZUSMH,andamultihazardanalysisisnotneeded,thereisnoneedto
obtainothermapsofcharacteristicsofotherhazardtypesnotincludedinthissoftware
package.Possibleothertypesofdataincludewrittenprofilesinsteadofmaps.
TheanalysisprocessfortheriverinefloodhazardisshowninTable7.
Table7HAZUSRiverineFloodHazardAnalysisProcess
Action
Results
DefineTerrain
CreateNewScenario
InputDigitalElevationModel(DEM)
SelectReaches
HydrologicAnalysis
ComputeFloodHazard(hydraulicsanalysis)forsuite,specificreturnperiod,
specificdischarge,andannualizedreturnperiods.
Optionalhazardanalysis
PerformWhatifLeveeAssessment,FlowRegulation,and/orVelocityGrid
DevelopFlooddepth
grid
Source:modifiedfromHAZUSMHApplicationDVDFloodManual(FEMA2007).
Beforedefiningtheterrain,gotoHazardmenu>FloodHazardType>Riverineonly>
OK.ThishelpsdefinethecorrectDigitalElevationModel(DEM)andenablesthemenu
itemsneededtosupportthehazardselected.TheDEMcoversboththestudyregion
andallthewatershedsthatintersectthatstudyregion.Afterthisastreamnetwork
needstobedevelopedbeforeanyothermenuitemisenabled.
IntheHAZUSMHguideAppendixD,JobAid21(FEMA2004),inthecolumnforflood
(riverine),thereistheindicationofcomplementarydatafortheanalysesinHAZUSMH.
Inourcasestudy,thesecomplementarydataaretheUSGSDigitalElevationModel
(DEM)forthewatershedofSussexCountySeaford.Therearedifferentwaysfor
gettingUSGSDEMdata.OnewayisthroughtheGeoCommunity(USGS2007),where
aftersubscribingonecandownloaddataforfree.TheHAZUSMHsoftwarehasa
promptthatshowsthepathtoobtainingthenecessarydatasetfromUSGS.However
thebestdatasourceforthestudyareaforthisresearchistheelevationmodelfromthe
SpatialAnalysisLaboratory(SpatLab)atUniversityofDelaware.Thedatawithspecific
coordinatesiswhatisused.
TogetanddownloadthecorrectdataintoHAZUSMH,itsimportanttofindthe
specificationsforit.TointegrateaDEMclicktheHazardmenu>UserData.Ifthe
datasetisnotthecorrectDEMforintegrationintoHAZUSMH,theerrormessageshown
inFigure8appears.
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Figure8DEMErrorMessageinHAZUSMH
Source:HAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).
ThiserrormessagehelpstheusertofindtheproperDEM.Theintegrationofdatadoes
notoccurasasimpletransferofdatabyclickingonaselectedlayerinArcCatalogand
droppinginHAZUSMH.ThisprocessdoesnotenoughinformationfortheHAZUSMH
softwaretorecognizethelayerandincludeitintheanalyses.Inthedialogboxfor
addingaDEMintoHAZUSMH,clickonthebuttonatthebottomofthedialogbox
DeterminerequiredDEMextent.Thisbuttonopensadialogboxwiththeinstructions
forgettingthecorrectDEMfromUSGSasshowninFigure9.Followtheinstructions.
Figure9InstructionsforObtainingSpecificDEMforHAZUSMH
TheDEMfilespecificationsdownloadedfromUSGSareshowninFigure10.
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Figure10NewDEMforSeafordArea
Source:DEMDialogBoximagefrom(USGS2008).
ThecorrectDEMrecognizedbythesystemandintegratedintoHAZUS_MHisshownin
Figure11.Asonecansee,theDEMcoversabiggerareathantheselectedspecifiedbase
map.
Figure11DEMIntegratedintoHAZUSMH
Afterdownloadingthedata,thetasksaretogenerateastreamnetwork,specifythe
drainageareaofatleast1(one)squaremile,andselectascenariotodothefloodcase
study.
ThestreamnetworkisgeneratedbyusingaDEMoutputfromtheFlowAccumulation
function.Thisflowaccumulation,asexplainedbyESRIArcGISDesktopHelp(ESRI
2007a),isthenumberofupslopecellsthatflowintoeachcell.
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InHAZUSMHthereisaspecificfunctionforgeneratingastreamnetwork,whichisdone
onetimeonlytoestablishtherivernetworkidentityforallfollowingscenarios(FEMA
2007).AdrawbackinthesystematthispointisthatifyoustarttointegratetheDEM
andyoudonotcompletetheothertasksforgeneratingthestreamnetwork,evenafter
saving,turningoffandlatercomingbacktocontinue,theinterruptionmaydisablesome
tools.ThisproblemcanbesolvedbyintegratingtheDEMagainintoHAZUSMH
software.
Usingthesoftware,ontheHazardmenuselectDevelopStreamNetwork>put1.0for
drainage>OK.ThisprocessisshowninFigure12.
Figure12BuildingStreamNetworkinHAZUSMH
Source:completedin(FEMA2007).
Bydefiningthedrainageareaasahighersquaremileage(e.g.,30squaremiles),the
streamsarefarfromeachotherinthisareaandthisisnotappropriateforthisresearch.
The1squaremiledrainagearearesultsinastreamnetworkhighlydefinedwithinthe
totallandarea.Thewaterdrainsintoanygivenreachwiththeexceptionofthestarting
nodeofthereach(whichisthedownstreamnodeofthepriorreach).
Confirmtheprocessbyclickingyesinthenextdialogboxthatcomesup.Thetime
requiredforthisdialogboxtoappeardependsonthesizeoftheareaselected.Ifitisa
largearea,itmaytakealongertimetofinishtheprocesstodeveloptheStream
Network.WhenfinishedclickOKontheprompttoconfirmsuccessonbuildingthe
StreamNetwork.ThesoftwarethengeneratesalayercalledReaches.
Selectascenariotodothefloodcasestudy.Hazardmenu>Scenario>New>OK.This
scenariodefinesthespecificstreamreachesandthehydrologicandhydraulic
characteristicsincludeinoneanalysisrun.Awindowopensforgivingatitletothenew
scenario,andifdesired,spaceforabriefadditionaldescription.Thisscenarioname
mustnothavespaces.AnewdialogboxshowsupasshowninFigure13.
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Figure13DefiningtheScenarioforAnalysisinHAZUSMH
ClickAddtoselection.Goovertheareayouwanttobeanalyzed,clickanddragthe
mousetotheextensionofareayoudesire,oruseselectfeaturestooltodefinespecific
streams.ClickSaveselection>OK.ItgeneratesanewlayercalledChosenReaches
showninFigure14inred.
Figure14DefiningAreaforFurtherAnalyses
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TheoptionSaveAsunderScenarioallowstheusertoskipthehazardanalysistorun
differentparametersintheInventoryorAnalysismenu(i.e.modifying
functions/parametersintheDamage&LossEstimateAnalysistocompareresults
betweenscenarios).Thissavestime.AlsotoreruntheAnalysis,preserveprevious
resultswithoutduplicatingaStudyRegion,andgeneratesnewresultsfortheother
analysiswhilemaintainingoldresults.TheSaveAsworksforanopenscenarioonly.
Namethescenarioandaddadescription.
Tocontinuedoinganalyses,clickHazardmenu>Riverine>Hydrology.HAZUSMH
analyzesthedischargefrequencyrelationshipforallofthosereachesdefinedinthecase
study.ThisiswhenHAZUSMHusesthestreamgagedata,andincludestopographic
parameters.Thisdemandstimeforcalculationsanditispossibletohavecomputer
memorylimitproblems.Waitforprocessingtofinish.Thisanalysisisimportantto
performfrequencyrelatedfloodanalysessuchasthe100yearreturnperiod,orthe
annualizedloss.Iftheanalysesareforspecificreachesdischarges,skipHydrologyand
gototheDelineateFloodplain(Riverine)menu>SingleDischarge.
Oncethehydrologicanalysisisfinished,selecttheanalysistypeasshowninFigure15.
Figure15OptionforRiverineAnalysesType
Source:choseninHAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).
Hazard>Riverine>DelineateFloodplain>SingleReturnPeriod.
Failureofthesoftwarecanbeduetosomebugs,forexample,thisoneshowninFigure
16.
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Figure16HAZUSMHWarningandSuggestiontoEnableSoftwareOperation
Afterfixingtheproblem,andgettingthesoftwarerunning,thisparticularcasestudy
tookmorethan2hourstoprocesstheanalysesusinganIntelCPUT25002GHz
processorasshowninFigure17.
Figure17TimetoCompleteSingleReturnAnalysis
ThisanalysisgeneratedalayernamedBoundaryPolygontogetherwithalayercalled
RPD100inthemapshowninFigure18.UseSaveAstokeepcurrentresults.
Figure18SingleReturnPeriodMap
TheotheranalysiscompletedwasforAnnualLosses.Thisanalysisgeneratedanewmap
withaBoundaryPolygonlayerandanotherlayercalledRPD500showninFigure19.
ThelayoutisapredeterminedformatintheHAZUSMHsoftware.
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Figure19AnnualLossMap
Source:Maplayoutpredeterminedandincludedin(FEMA2007).
Table8showsabriefdescriptionforthehazardanalyzestypesundertheDelineate
Floodplainsubmenu.Theanalysisforhazardsdefinedasriverineiscompletedusing
theseanalyses.
Table8TypesofHazardsAnalyses
SingleReturnPeriod
Resultantgridwillbeasinglereturnintervalforallreachesselectedora
singlegridofmixedreturnintervalsfortheselectedreachesandtheselected
years.
ReturnPeriods10,50,
Calculateflooddepthsandfloodplainsforeachofthesereturnperiodflood
100,200,500
yearsonallstreamreaches.Floodmodelproducesasingle10yearflood
depthgridfortheselectedreachesduplicatingtheprocessfortheotherfour
returnintervals.
SingleDischarge
Allowsyoutoinputanticipatedstreamdischargelevelsforeachstreamreach.
Bridgesrequirespecialattentionusingthistypeofanalysis.
AnnualizedLoss
Calculateasuiteoffloodstobeusedlaterinanannualizedlosscalculation.
CompletedannualizedlossenablesthismenuitemontheAnalysismenu.
Source:basedonHAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).
Furtheranalysistohelpinmitigationplanning,aretheWhatifscenarios,which
includeriverinelevee,riverineflowregulation,andriverinevelocity.Theriverinelevee
toolinHAZUSMHaddsleveealignment,attributestheleveewithalevelofprotection
and,determinestheeffectsofaleveeonflooddepthswithintheunprotectedportion
ofthefloodplain(FEMA2007).
Tousetheleveetool,zoomintotheareawhereonewantstodrawalevee.Goto
Hazardmenu>Riverine>Levee>clicktheDrawbutton.Chooseagridonwhichtodraw
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theleveealignment.Crossthealignmentoverthefloodplaintwice,enterrecurrence
interval(inyears)correspondingtothelevelofprotectionprovidedbythelevee>OK.
Figure20showsahypotheticalleveelinealignmentinanupsidedownwhiteushape
intheleft,andthenewmapaftercalculationsontheright.Themodelintegratesthe
leveeintotheDEMandrecomputesthefloodhazardforthescenario.TheLevee
analysisonlyworksforriverinehazardsbasedonaspecificreturnperiod,whichmeans
AnnualLossesscenariowillnotrunwiththeLeveeanalysis.
Figure20WhatifLeveeProtectionScenario
TheplacefortheLeveewaschosentocoincidewiththeareawhereUS13passes.This
areaappearsvulnerable.Thefloodwaternowreachesdifferentdepthsandcoversa
slightlydifferentarea.
TheHAZUSMHdefaulthydrologicanalysesareappliedtounregulateddrainageareas.
TheotheranalysisprovidedinHAZUSMHisforriverineflowregulation,whichcanbe
throughdiversionsand/orstorage,whichchangesthefloodfrequencycurves
downstream.Thetoolforflowregulationincorporatestheflowregulationinthe
downstreameffectsbymodifyingtheunregulatedfloodfrequencycurveatspecific
locationsbyenteringoneormorepairsofrecurrenceintervalsanddischargevalues.
Thedownstreamreachesaffectedareidentified,andthecorrespondingfloodfrequency
curvesaremodifiedasappropriate,andthusthefloodhazardisrecomputed.
Tousethistool,gototheHazardmenu>Riverine>FlowRegulation>clickDrawbutton
andidentifythelocationofaregulatingstructure(i.e.floodcontrolreservoir)>click
Applybutton.Figure21showstheselectedplaceforflowregulationandallthereturn
periodanddischargeoptionsfordoingtheanalysis.Thisusesthealgorithmforfindthe
drainageareaupstreamofthatlocationanddefinestheunregulatedfloodfrequency
curve(FEMA2007),plotsacurve,andatableofrecurrenceintervalsandassociated
dischargevalues.Enterthereturnperiodforthedischargeoftheregulatingstructure>
OK.Yesinthenextdialogbox.
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Figure21WhatifFlowRegulationScenarioProcess
Thisfunctiongeneratedanotherbug.Figure22showstheerrormessageandsolution
totheproblem.Aftersolvingtheproblem,continuetothenextanalysis.
Figure22WarningandSuggestiontoRunRiverineFlowRegulationAnalysis
Source:warningdialogboxin(FEMA2007).
ForeachWhatifscenario,doaspecificsaveas.Makesuretohavethesinglereturn
periodtodoeachofthenewwhatifscenarios.Thisavoidsrunningintoerrors.Figure
23showstheFlowRegulationmapoutput.
Figure23WhatifFlowRegulationMap
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AnotherpossibleanalysisinHAZUSMHistheriverineflowvelocity.Floodwatervelocity
canincreasethehazardbycarryinglargeamountsofsedimentanddebris,impacting
structures,anderodingsoilfromstreambanksandunderfoundations(FEMA2007).
Thevelocityanalysisincludesestimationofthespatialdistributionofthefloodwater
velocity.GotoHazardmenu>Riverine>Velocity>Yes.Figure24showstheresulting
mapwiththedifferentfloodwatervelocityestimation.
Figure24FloodwaterVelocityEstimationMap
UndertheHazardmenuthereisaQuickLookoption.Thisquicklyproducesarough
estimateofflooddamages,withoutgeneratingastreamnetworkorDelineate
Floodplain,byenteringanticipatedflooddepthsfortheareaselected.Then,basedon
theexistinginfrastructureinthisarea,thisoptionestimatesapproximatedamages.This
crudemethodofanalysisislimitedastheestimates:
arebasedonlyontheGeneralBuildingStock(GBS),
areonlyappropriateforsmallareaswithsimilarelevations,
donotuseanytopology(DEM),
donotverifytheveracityoftheflooddepthsinput,and
assumesthatlocationswithsimilarelevationshavethesamedepth
offlooding.
Thelimitationscanproduceincorrectresults.Thereforethisfunctionwasnotusedfor
thecasestudy.TheEnhancedQuickLookanalysisoptionworksinasimilarwaytothe
basicQuickLookfunction(usingapolygontorepresentsthefloodplainboundarythatis
thenusedtoestimatetheflooddepth)thisfunctionwasalsonotused.
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Forlevelofanalysis2or3,additionaldataisrequired.Choosingthelevelofanalysis
requiresconsiderationofthefeasibilityofsuchaneffortdependingonschedule,
resourcesavailable,andendusesofdata.ForLevel2Analysis,notonlyistheElevation
Modelneeded,butalso,additionallocalfloodandterraindata.Thisadditionaldata
includesfloodproneareas,andupdatedinventorydatafor1stfloorelevationdatafor
buildings.Thistypeofdetailedanalysisisbetterusedforsmallareas(project
managementlevel).Aspecifictool,theFloodInformationTool(FIT)isneededifthedata
availableisotherthanDEM(triangulatedirregularnetworkTIN,orcontourlines).The
FITismeanttofacilitatethepreparationoffloodriskassessmentbyautomatically
processingtheflooddatatoevaluateexposureanddeveloplossestimatesforthe
inventory.
Allthesehazardanalysessofararemeanttohelpunderstandrealevents.Inthecase
study,thefocusisonthefloodeventthatoccurredonJune25,2006inSeafordarea.
Therefore,tohelporganizeandcommunicatehazardinformationtothetarget
audience,eachdifferenthazardmusthaveseparateworksheetssuchastheoneshown
inTable9.Forthiscasestudy,wherethereisonlyonetypeofhazard,onlyone
worksheetiscompleted.Hazardareamaps,graphicillustrationsandhistogramsofpast
eventsmustbeattachedtothistable.Whendoingamultihazardanalysisforaspecific
areaand/orcommunity,thewaytoprioritizehazardsusingaqualitativeapproach
proposedbyHAZUSMH,istoweightthefactorsdifferently,assigningaratingforeach
factorfrom0(low)to5(high).Thefactorsconsideredare:frequency,duration,severity,
intensity.Therankingsystemmustbespecifiedaccordingtothedifferentlevelsas
shownintherainbowfigureinTable9.
Table9ProfileHazardforCaseStudy
HAZARD:FloodSeafordDE
SummaryofRiskFactors
Rankoffactorsforlocalprofile
Periodofoccurrence:June25,2006
Severityscore:high
Probabilityofevent:1%(100yearflood)
History:(similarevents)40
Warningtime:1to2daysverycertain,10days
trends.
Vulnerability:(Guessing)75
Majorcontributor(s):Lowelevation,Eastcoast
State,Majorriver
MaximumThreat:80
Riskofinjury?Yes,andriskofdeath
Probability:80
Potentialforfacilitiesshutdown?Yes.Majorroads
for30daysormore
Totalscore:275
Percentofaffectedpropertiesthatmaybe
destroyedorsuffermajordamage:guessing10%of
localroadnetwork
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ContinueTable9.
FLOOD(HAZARD)PROFILE(DATA)
BackgroundandLocalConditions
Delawarehasmoderateriskforsnowfall,hasmorethanjustafewbutnotfrequentriskfor
thunderstorms,hasmoderatetolowriskforwind,andsomeriskforhurricanes.Theoverallcomposite
riskismoderate.SussexCountyinDelawareisalongwithotherU.S.countieswiththegreatestnumberof
federaldisasterdeclarations(USGS2006).Seafordislocatedat3838 41 N,7536 58 W(38.644654,
75.616107),insouthwesternDelaware.Thisareahaslowelevation,pronetoflooding.Seaford'sweather
hasamildsubtropicalclimateconsistingofhot,humidsummersandmildwinters,moderatedbythe
AtlanticOcean.CommontohavefloodingeventoccurringalsointheMarylandneighboringarea,having
tosharesolutionsfortraffic.Localtransportationinfrastructureusuallyingoodandfairconditions,the
trafficLevelofServiceisAtoC.Arealikelytobeheavilyimpactedbyclimatechangeandglobalwarming.
HistoricFrequencyandProbabilityofOccurrence
FloodingisthemostcommondisastertypeintheU.S.andforSussexCounty.Consideringsimilarevents
sincethe1960sregisteredasaFederalDisasterDeclaration,thenumberofeventsare4.Earlierevents
lackeasilyaccessiblesourcesofinformation.Table5showstheeventsandtheirrelateddamages.Figure
25showstherelatedgraphconsideringthetimetrendamongFederalDisasterDeclarations(Other
differentandminoreventshavetakenplaceinotheryears).
Severity
ConsideringotherareasintheU.S.areas,Delawareisconsideredamoderateriskarea.However,Sussex
County,Delawareistheareathatmostfrequentlyexperiencesdisasters,whichmatches(onaparwith
otherareasthathavereceivedaboutthesamenumberofFederalDisasterDeclarations)(USGS).Inthis
sensetheriskforFloodingcanbeconsideredhigh.Accordingtothefloodedareamapdevelopedin
ArcGISandstudiesaboutglobalwarming,eventslikethe100yearstormandothermorerareevents(i.e.
500yearstorm)canincreaseinfrequencyandstrength.
HistoricLossesandImpacts
Greatdamagehasoccurredtotransportationinfrastructure,crops,buildings,andsomelossoflives
(NOAA).The2006floodimpactslistforSeafordareaincludes:
damagetothepolicedepartmentsituatedinthecityofSeaford,andtheSeafordSchoolDistrict
parkinglot,
barricadesandhighwatersignsemergencyrepairsandplacementintheTownofGeorgetown,
totaling$1,905,
trafficcontrolandothersecuritymeasuresoftheDelawareStatePolice,totaling$9,822,
roadandbridgerepairundertheresponsibilityoftheDelawareDepartmentofTransportation,
totaling$341,888,and
roadrepairworkattheDelawareTechnicalandCommunityCollege,totaling$13,340.
DesignatedHazardAreas
TheelevationprofilemapandthefloodedareamapdevelopedearlierusingArcInfoshowtheareasmost
pronetoflooding.TheywerebuiltpriortothebasemapdevelopedinHAZUSMH.TheuseofHAZUSMH
softwareistodoadeeperanalysisoftheproblem.
Source:basedonHAZUSMHHowToGuideWorksheet22(FEMA2004).
ThisTable9showskeyinformationanddatathatislaterincludedinthemodelin
STELLA(e.g.,periodofoccurrence,probabilityofevent,facilityshutdown,4similar
events,costofrepairforroadsandbridges).STELLAallowstheinclusionofqualitative
informationtobuildtheconnectiontoquantitativedata,althoughallvariablesneeda
mathematicalrepresentation.Theuseofqualitativeandquantitativeinformationin
STELLAisincludedinthedocumentthatshowsthedevelopmentofthemodelforthe
CIRDSS.HAZUSMHdealswiththephysicalandgeographicalconditionofthe
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infrastructurebycalculatingdamageandoverallimpacts.Table9putsinperspectivethe
eventfocusofanalysisandhelpsunderstandthescopeoftheproblem,plusgiving
insightsaboutwheretoallocateresourcesaspartofmitigationstrategyoptionsforthe
transportationinfrastructure.Tohaveabetterapproachtotheproblemofdamaged
infrastructureanddisruptedtrafficflowisimportanttoconsiderconditionand
performancemeasurestogether,thisrelatingtotheconceptofresiliencenetwork
(systemmustwork).TheHAZUSMHoutputshelptoidentifyareasinneedofrebuilding
fromtheperspectiveofrecoveryand/ormitigation.HAZUSMHbetteraddressesissues
relatedtoinfrastructurephysicalcondition,whichmaps,calculationsandreports
demonstratetheproblem.Forperformanceintermsoftrafficflowdisruption,thereis
nomechanisminplaceinthesoftwareatpresent.Recoveryfordamagedinfrastructure
isunderstoodtobesimplestructuralrepairorrebuilding,andmitigationisunderstood
tobeinfrastructuresystemimprovementincludingreinforcement.Mitigationisthe
phaseinthedisastercyclewhichactivitiescanbedirectedtoprivilegeimprovementin
theresilienceofinfrastructuresystems,thedesiredoutcomeofthepresentresearch.
ThefollowingtablesandfiguresshownarethedocumentationthatcompletesthisCase
StudyHazardProfile.First,Table10showseventsofsimilarorigin,theyearsthey
happenandtheimpactforthespecificstudyregionofSeafordinSussexCounty.
Table10SimilarFederalDisastersandDamagebetween1962and2006inSussexCounty
Events
EventNumber
Year
Damage(US$Million)
1
126
1962
21,391,487
2
1017
1994
8,907,958
3
1205
1998
3,721,100
4
1654
2006
3,000,000
Figure25Figure25isaplotofthedatainTable10showingthedecreaseinvaluein
millionsofdollarsthroughtime.Thissuggeststhatpolicies,improvements,andlearning
experiencesareincreasingtheresilienceofSussexCounty,resultinginlessexposure
andlessvulnerability.Alsothetimebetweendisastersseemstobedecreasing,which
meansthatthechanceofexceedingthe100yearfloodelevationismorecommonthan
the1in100yearoccurrence.Thesehypotheseswarrantfurtherexploration.
Figure25FederalDisastersDamageGraphSussexDE
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Afteralltheseanalysesarefinishedforthehazard,thelossanalysisisundertakenin
HAZUSMH.Forthestudyregionthecharacteristicsofthestructuresandpeopleare
identifiedandanalyzedforvulnerabilitytothefloodorfloods.TheHAZUSMHdefaults
providedamagefunctionstoestimatepercentdamagerelativetothedepthof
floodwaterasmeasuredfromthetopofthefirstfinishedfloorforriverinefloods
(FEMA2007).Otherdamagefunctionscollectedordevelopedanalyzeimpactson
vehicles,bridges,andutilities.
Step3:InventoryofAssets
Step3intheHAZUSMHguideistoinventorytheassets.Thesearetheassetsthatcan
beimpactedbythehazardspecifiedearlier.Riskcombinesexposure,vulnerabilityand
hazard.Theinformationanddocumentationaboutpopulation,structures,andlifelines
providedbyHAZUSMHmustbereviewedandcanbeusedforaLevel1analysis.The
informationanddocumentationforotherlevelsofanalysismustbetailoredand
completed,afteradatagapanalysis,andthenintegratedwiththeinformationinto
HAZUSMH.Theoutputsforallthreelevelsofanalysisaretables,maps,updatedlocal
data,andlistsofdatasources.
Analysisofnaturalhazardsincludestheverificationoflikelihoodofoccurrence,
severity,andgeographiclocationoftheinventory(FEMA2004).Thisdataand
informationisusedtosupportlossestimatesandriskstudies.Thebasictermsusedin
theguideforinventoryare:
Assethumandeveloped/naturalfeaturethathasvalue(i.e.people,
buildings,lifelines);
Inventorythepopulation,lifelines,andotherassetsinthestudy
region;
Buildingsgeneraltypesincludinguserdefinedbuildingsandcritical
facilities;
Lifelinessystemssuchastransportationandutility;
Exposureaninventoriedassetpresentinahazardpronearea;
Vulnerabilityhowmuchanassetisexposedorsusceptibletoa
hazard.
HAZUSMHprovidesdetailedinventorydata,whicharerepresentedinthestudyregion
mapsaspoints,lines,andpolygons.Thesefeaturesare(FEMA2004):
generalbuildingstock,
essentialfacilities(i.e.hospitals,police,emergencyoperation
centers),
hazardousmaterialfacilities,
highpotentiallossfacilities(i.e.nuclearpowerplants,dams,military
installations),
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transportationlifelinesystems(i.e.air,road,rail,andwater
systems),
utilitylifelinesystems(i.e.potablewater,wastewater,oil,natural
gas,electricpower,communicationsystems),and
demographicdata.
ThedatasourcesforeachcategoryusedinHAZUSMH,whichmustbereviewedfor
accuracy,arefromorganizationssuchastheU.S.CensusBureau,theAmericanHospital
Association,andInfoUSA,Inc.
Neededchangestothelocationincludingmodificationsandsupplementstothisand
otherdatacanbedoneinHAZUSMH.Toaccessthedata,clickontheInventorymenu>
TransportationSystems.Theinformationisintables,whichcanbeviewedinthemap
throughthemapfunctionatthebottomofthemenu.Figure26showstheinventory
tableforHighwaySegments,andFigure27showsthemapfortheHighwaySegments
withthespecificstudyareashowninred.Figure28showstheHAZUSMHHighway
Segmenttableinthetopandthecenterlinedatatableatthebottom.Takingaclose
lookatthetables,onecanseetheyhavedifferentcolumns,butoneimportantdetailin
thedatacomingfromHAZUSMHisthecolumnforsegmentcost,whichisusedanalysis
performedbythemodelinSTELLA.
Figure26InventoryDataforHighwaySegmentsinHAZUSMH
Source:FEMA(2004)andHAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).
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Figure27HighwaySegmentsintheHAZUSMHStudyAreaMap
Figure28RoadsTablesfromHAZUSMHSoftwareandDataMILCenterline
Source:HAZUSMHSoftwareandDataMIL(FEMA2007;UniversityofDelawareResearch
andDataManagementServices2008).
ThedatainHAZUSMHfortheTransportationSystemsare:
Highwaysegments,bridges,andtunnels;
Railsegments,bridges,tunnels,andfacilities;
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LightRailsegments,bridges,tunnels,andfacilities;
Bus;
Port;
Ferry;and
Airportfacilitiesandrunways.
ThedataprovidedinHAZUSMHareorganizedbycomponentclassificationbasedon
theirvulnerabilitytofloodingdescribedintheTechnicalManual.TheFloodModeldoes
notaccountforfloodbornedebrisimpactortheloadsresultingfromfloodbornedebris
trappedagainsttransportationfeaturessuchasbridges(FEMA2007).TheFloodModel
canestimatethelevelofdamageforthebridgenetworkandsubsequentfunctionality
ofthebridges,buttheothertransportationcomponentslackthiscapabilityinthe
currentmodel.ThebridgebaselinedatabasewascompiledfromtheNational
TransportationAtlasandupdatedin2001.
Theinventorydataincludedforanalysisaregeographicallocation,classification,and
replacementcostofsystemcomponents.Althoughassessmentoflossesforhighway
segmentsisnotavailableinthecurrentFloodModel,thebridgeapproachisusefuland
theestimateofthepercentdamageandtheprobabilityofbeingfunctionaldepending
ontheestimateddamagecanbeusedintheSTELLAmodel(FEMA2007).Theclassesof
highwaysystemsarepresentedinTable11.
Table11FEMAsHighwaySystemClassification
FloodLabel GeneralOccupancy
SpecificOccupancy
HRD1
HRD2
HTU
HWBM
HWBO
HWBCO
HWBCC
HWBSO
HWBSC
HighwayRoads
HighwayRoads
HighwayTunnel
HighwayBridge
HighwayBridge
HighwayBridge
HighwayBridge
HighwayBridge
HighwayBridge
MajorRoads(1km4lanes)
UrbanRoads(1km2lanes)
HighwayTunnel
MajorBridge
OtherBridge(includesallwood)
OtherConcreteBridge
ContinuousConcreteBridge
OtherSteelBridge
ContinuousSteelBridge
HAZUSValuation
(1000s$)
10,000
5,000
20,000
20,000
1,000
1,000
5,000
1,000
5,000
Source:(FEMA2007).
ThedataprovidedbyHAZUSMHissufficienttocompleteariskassessment.Adding
datatoperformaLevel2or3analysesrequiresadatagapanalysis.Figure28servesas
agoodstartfordatagapanalysisasthedifferentcolumnsshowthedataandhelpto
identifysources.Theothertasksforthisgapanalysisincludetheevaluationofschedule,
resources,priorities,andneedsforlocalinventorydatacollection.Theroaddata
downloadedfromDataMILservesasthebackgroundforthemaptohelpwiththe
resilienceanalysisandmitigationstrategydevelopment.Eventuallyforthislevelof
analysis,onemustaddfieldsandmakeassumptionsorcollectfieldinformationtoallow
forfurtherriskassessment.
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OthertasksrelatedtotheDataTablesareeditingtoimproveinventories,importother
inventorydatatablesintoHAZUSMH,collectingdatausingInCAST(aFEMARisk
AssessmentSystemtool),organizeandimportdatausingBITMH(aFEMARisk
AssessmentSystemforbuildingdatasets).
Step4:EstimateLosses
Step4inHAZUSMHestimateslosses.Thisstepinvolvesrunningthelossestimation
modelsandscenarios,andevaluatingthechosenhazardeventsandinventoryresults
forthespecificgeographiclocation.Theoutputsforlossestimatesaretables,maps,and
summaryreports.TheFloodWizardandRiskAssessmentToolalsoprovidesimilar
resultswhenusedforAnalysisLevels2and3.).TheFloodWizardfacilitatesfloodrisk
assessmentforriverinefloodingevaluatingexposureanddoinglossestimatesforlarge
extentsofarea(e.g.,countylevel),usingDEMandfloodplainboundaryinformation.The
RiskAssessmentToolproducestheriskassessmentoutputsforamultihazardregion
(earthquake,flood,andhurricane).
Thespecifictermsusedforlossestimationare(FEMA2004):
Lossstructural,content,andlossoffunction;
Functionaldowntimeestimatedaveragetimeindaysforwhich
businessorservicesareunabletofunctionbecauseoflossesdueto
thehazardevent;
Displacementtimeaveragenumberofdaysoccupantsare
displacedbecauseofdamageresultingfromthehazardincluding
timebuildingsoccupantsoperatefromatemporarylocation;
Functionlossfunctionaldowntimecosts+displacementtime
costs;
Casualtiesimpactsonhumansincludinginjuryanddeath;
Returnperiodlossaveragelossoveracertainperiodoftimefor
allhazardevents.
Thelossestimationresults(averageexpectedvalueperyear)areobtainedfor
deterministicandprobabilisticscenariosinHAZUSMH.Theaveragevalueoflosscan
helpdecisionmakersplanningeffortstofocusonacosteffectivemannerfor
developingprioritiesforaddressingnaturalhazards.Theaverageannualizedlossescan
alsohelpidentifycosteffectivemitigationmeasures,whichcanproducesavingsin
termsofavoidedlossesrecognizingbudgetaryissuesandconstraints.
Theprobabilisticanalysesareusedtodevelopannualizedlossesandreturnperiod
lossesestimationsofdamageandloss.Thestandardizedhazardoutputsestimate
damageandlosses(direct,induced,social,andbusinessinterruptions).Theanalyses
considerthelikelihoodofoccurrenceofaspecificevent,itsresultinglossesand
consequences.Thelikelihoodestimatecanbebasedonbothstatisticsandhistorical
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information.HAZUSMHprocessingcapabilityaccountsforalimitedanumberofevents
perreturnperiod,specifically:
5floodevents,
7hurricanes,and/or
8earthquakes.
Thedeterministicanalysesarebasedonthelawsofphysics,andcorrelationsamong
experienceorteststopredictaparticularhazardscenariooutcome.Oneormoreworst
crediblepossiblescenarioscanbedeveloped,butthefrequencyofeventsmustbe
evaluated.
ThefunctionsusedtoestimatedamagecanbeseenfromtheAnalysismenu.The
currentAnalysismenuincludesDamageFunctions,RestorationFunctions,Parameters,
3rdPartyModels,FloodWarning,andAnnualizedLoss.IncludedinDamageFunctions
areBuildings,EssentialFacilities,TransportationSystems,UtilitySystems,Agricultural
Products,andVehicles.IncludedinRestorationFunctionsisEssentialFacilities.Included
inParametersareDebris,Casualties,Shelter,Agricultural,DirectSocialLoss,and
IndirectEconomicLoss.Includedin3rdPartyModelsthereareALOHA,MARPLOT,
FLDWAV,andFloodView.Thesemodelsonlyworkwhenthepropertoolisdownloaded
andinstalledtoworkwithHAZUSMH.
TheTransportationSystemsdamagefunctiondialogboxonlyhasthestructuredamage
functionwithnocontentsorinventory.ThetabsallowshiftingbetweenHighway,
Railway,andLightRailfacilities.Thecurrentfloodmodelhasdamagefunctionsfor
bridgesonly,whicharebasedonstandardreturnperiods.Bridgescannotbeanalyzed
usingdifferentreturnperiodsfordifferentreaches.
TheDamageFunctionforTransportationSystemsincludescoefficientsforreturn
periodsfrom0to1000yearsasshowninFigure29.TheLibrarytabshowsfurther
detailsabouteachitemintheOccupancycolumn,anditalsoallowsforaUser
DefinedLibrary.
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Figure29DamageFunctionforTransportationSystem
Source:HAZUSMHSoftware(FEMA2007).
Thedamageandlossfunctionsforinfrastructureconsiderthemostvulnerablesegments
toinundationintermsofimpact.Thefunctionsidentifythefacilities/componentsthat
aremostexpensivetoreplaceorif/whendamagedresultsinanextendedclosure
disablingtheuseofthecriticalinfrastructurebythecommunity.Furthersubhazards
thatmayaffectlifelinecomponentsandthelevelofvulnerabilityincludeinundation,
scour/erosion,anddebrisimpact/hydraulicloading.Examplesarebridges/foundations
thatarenotvulnerabletoinundation,buriedpipelinecrossingsthatarevulnerableto
scour,andbridgedecksthatarevulnerabletohydraulicpressure(FEMA2007).
Beforedoinganyanalysisisimportanttoviewand/ormodifytheanalysisParameters.
TheDebrismenuopensaneditabledialogboxallowingtheusertoviewthedefault
debrisvalues,whichareestimatedbasedonthedepthoffloodingwithinthestructure,
specificoccupancy,andifthefoundationhasafootingoraslab(FEMA2007).Thereare
threemainclassificationsfordebris:finishes(i.e.,drywall,flooring,andinsulation),
structure(i.e.,framing,walls,exteriorcladding),andfoundation(i.e.,concreteslab,
concreteblockorotherfoundation).Foundationssubstantiallydamagedduetoflooding
requirethestructuretoberemoved.
TheCasualtiesmenuopensaworddocumentthatprovidessomeguidanceonthe
nationalaverageforcasualtiesbecausethefloodmodeldoesnotprovideestimates.
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TheSheltermenuopensadialogboxwithmultipletabsallowingaccesstothe
parametersthataffectthenumberofdisplaced/evacuatedpeopleandthenumberof
peoplethatneedshorttermsheltering.Thisanalysisassumesthatlocalauthoritieswill
havetimetoalerttheresidentsandevacuatethemfromtheareasthatwillflood.The
floodmodeldoesincludeflashfloodingorlongdurationflooding.Themodelestablishes
theflooddepthatwhichpeoplearenotallowedintooroutofthefloodedarea.This
helpstothinkaboutlocalplansandaccesscontrols.Theevacuationbufferisaddedto
thecurrentfloodplainpolygonincreasingtheareaoverwhichthetotaldisplaced
populationisestimated(thatis,thepopulationwithinthefloodplainandthebuffer).
Theutilityfactorstabisusedfordeterminingshorttermshelterneeds.Weighting
factorsallowsmodificationofthedemographiccharacteristics(i.e.,income,age,
ethnicity,homeownership).Modificationfactorsareasubclassificationofweighting
factorstoplacemoreemphasisorincreasetheimportanceofsomefactors.
TheAgriculturemenurequirestheflooddateinputinorderfortheanalysistorun
properly.Figure30showstheeventofJune25.
Figure30FloodDateinAgriculturalParameterforAnalysis
TheDirectEconomicparametermenuprovidesaccesstodefaultparameterscontrolling
theestimationofdirectdamagestothegeneralbuildingstockwithimpactonitswages,
income,inventoryandthemaximumrestorationtime.TheDirectEconomicLoss
ParametersincludeBusinessInventory,RestorationTime,andIncomeLossData(i.e.,
rental,owneroccupied,wagesandcapital,recapturefactors).Theestimatesarebased
onthedemographicandbuildingsquarefootagedatabases.
TheIndirectEconomicLossanalysisstartsbydefiningthetypeofanalysis.Thisdata
referstothepostfloodchangeinthedemandandsupplyofproducts,employment,and
taxrevenues.Thepotentialincreasedlevelsofimportsandexports,inventoriesfor
supplyandproduct,andunemploymentratescanbespecified(FEMA2007).
HAZUSMHdefaultssuggestnumbersforthestudyregioneconomy,thetypeof
syntheticeconomy,globalfactors,supplementaleconomicfactors,restorationfunctions
forwhichonecanchoosetheperiodforview(i.e.year),rebuildingexpenditure(i.e.
year),andstimulusvalues.TheanalysisiscompletedbyclickingonFinish.Figure31
showsthe8stepsforsettingtheindirecteconomiclossparameters.
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Figure31SettingupIndirectEconomicLossParameters(1)
TheothertypeofanalysisisFloodWarningaWhatIftypeanalysis.Peoplein
generalassumethatdamageandlossescanbereducedwitheffectivefloodwarning
althoughtherearedisagreementsoverpossiblereduceddamagebasedoneffective
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warning,andabouttheamountofreduction.TheFloodmodelbasesthecalculationson
theUSACEDaycurve,whichtriestoquantifythemaximumlevelofdamagereduction
accordingtothetimeafloodwarninghasbeenavailable(EPA2004).Thecurveitself
assumesaround35%eachforstructural,content,andbusinessinventorylosses
independentofhowmuchwarningisavailable.ThefloodmodelprovidestheDaycurve
intheTechnicalManualandallowsinputoftimeofwarningandexpectedreductionin
damage,andcalculatesdamageaccountingfortheanticipatedreduction.Thereisno
guidanceontheamountofvehiculardamage.AlthoughHAZUSMHsuggeststhatthis
valueisrelativelyhigh,thevalueisopen(0100%ofthevehiclesvalue).Valuesareinput
basedonassumptionsorknowledgeasshowninFigure31.Thevaluesassumedin
Figure32takeintoconsiderationatwodayweatherforecast(48hourwarning)that
reducestheimpacts.Forexample,theSeafordareaisjustapartoftheStateof
Delaware,andspecialtransportationservicescanbeusedforevacuation(i.e.,car
pooling,Paratransitbuses).
Figure32FloodWarningAssumptionsforAnalysis
Theanalysisforannualizedlossisonlyenabledifthefloodhazardannualizedlosswas
calculated.Hereonecandeterminetheirmaximumpotentialannualloss.Iftryingtodo
thisanalysisanerrormessageliketheoneshowninFigure33comesup,isbecause
somestepsaremissing.
Figure33ErrorMessageforAnnualLossAnalysis
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Toruntheanalysesthefollowingstepsarerequired:
GotoHazard>Riverine>DelineateFloodplainsubmenu>AnnualizedLoss.
Thisensuresallnecessaryflooddepthgridstoperformtheanalysisareavailable.Then:
GotoAnalysismenu>Run>checkforgeneralbuildingstock(asshowninFigure34)>
OK.Thiscreatestheanalysisresultsfromthereturnperiodsanalyzed(FEMA2007).
Figure34PreparingforAnnualizedLossAnalysis
GotoAnalysisMenu>AnnualizedLoss>OK.
Thissetsupthefloodmodelanalysisforinterpolatingandextrapolatingforotherreturn
periods,developingamaximumannuallossprobability.OnlyiftheGeneralBuilding
Stock(GBS)analysisforAnnualizedLossesissuccessfullydoneintheHazardphasewill
thisnewphaseundertheAnalysismenuworkandgiveanswersforbuildinganalysis
results.Fortheotheroptionssimplybasedonestimationsandnodetailedanalysis,such
asforTransportationSystemsandWhatIfscenariosmitigationpossibilities,the
AnnualizedLossesdonotneedtobecompleted.ClickOKinthepromptandHAZUSMH
theninformstheuserthattheprocedurehasbeensuccessful.
ThewaytheHAZUSMHdatainventorywasbuilttoservedamageandlossestimation
didnotincludefeatures/specificationsforenablingothertypeofanalysissuchas
NetworkAnalyst.TheHAZUSMHdatainventorylimitstheuseofasystemofsystems
analysisandtheinclusionofperformancemeasuresfortheroadnetwork.Forexample,
thereroutinganalysisisintendedtoprovidealternativesfortrafficflowcontinuity.This
iswhytheGISsoftwareevenwithoutHAZUSMHisessentialfordoingabetteranalysis
andthedevelopmentofmitigationstrategies.
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TorunthecompleteAnalyses,gotoAnalysismenu>SelectAll>OK.HAZUSMHwillrun
thedefaultanalysesincludingGeneralbuildingstock,Essentialfacilities,Selected
infrastructure(bridgesandwatersystems),Agricultureproducts,Vehicles,Debris,and
Shelterrequirements.
Toobtainthelossestimationresultsfirstspecifythedesiredscenario.Thisselection
includesScenarioName,ReturnPeriod,andAnalysisOptions.Resultscanbemaps,
tablesandsummaryreports.SelectResultsmenu>ViewCurrentScenarioResultsBy
>selectoneoftheavailablehazardanalyses(i.e.,Annual_Losses).Figure35showsthe
dialogboxforcreatingascenario.ClickOK.Theavailableresultsevenincludea500year
returnperiodscenario.Choosing100yearproducesthesameresultsasforaSingle
ReturnPeriodwhennoWhatIfoptionsareaddedtotheanalysis.
Figure35SelectingAvailableResultstoView
InthisscenariotherearenoWhatIfoptions.However,onemustremembertheflood
warningwassetupandthisisawhatifoption.GototheResultsmenu>FloodHazard
Maps>ThematicMapofDepth.Verifylayersandlegend.Theexportedmapisshownin
Figure36.
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Figure36SeafordAreaAnnualLossesMapofDepth
GotoResultsmenu>SummaryReportsasshowninFigure37.Thisopensadialogwith
differentTabsforaccessingtheresultinganalysis.
Figure37SummaryReportsOptions
AdetailedtableforTransportationSystemDamage/EconomicLosscannotbefound
undertheResultsmenu,buttheestimationtotalsmentionedearliercanbereadunder
theSummaryReports>Inventory>TransportationSystemDollarExposure,shownin
theHAZUSMHoutputTable12.Theonlyinformationthatisgoingtobeusedinthe
simulationinSTELLAisthetotalforHighwaySegments.Theexposureestimatevalueis
quantificationformeasuringassetvulnerabilitytothehazard(FEMA2004).
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Table12SummarizedReportforTransportationSystemDollarExposure
Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).
OtherexposureestimatesareavailableintheSummaryReportsoptionforvehiclesfor
dayandfornight.EstimatesareshowninTable13.
Table13SummarizedReportforVehicleDollarExposureforDayandNight
WhilenoneofthisinformationisusedinthesimulationinSTELLA,theanalysisprovides
someinsightintotheamountofdamageindollarsrelatedtothenumberofcarsinthe
areaatdifferentperiodsoftime.
TheestimateddebriscanbeseenbygoingtotheoptionInduced>DebrisGenerated
>View.Table14showsthetotalsbyalldebristypesforSussex.
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Table14SummarizedReportofEstimationforDebris
Theinformationaboutdebrisisusefultoorganizeresourcesforcleaninguptheregion,
anddesignatingproperplacestodisposeofthismaterial.Thisisatypicalactivityinthe
recoveryphasefollowingadisaster.
TheonlySummaryReportavailableforAnnualizedLossAnnualreturnperiod,isthe
AnnualizedDirectEconomicLossesforBuildingsundertheLossestab.Thisisbecause
HAZUSMHfocusesonbuildingassetsusingamorecompleteinventoryandanalysis.
Table15showsthedetailsforcapitalstocklossesandincomelosses.
Table15SummaryReportforAnnualizedDirectEconomicLossesforBuildings
UndertheLossestab,HAZUSMHshowszerodirecteconomiclossesfortransportation.
However,theestimateofeconomiclossesforvehiclesisshowninTable16.
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Table16SummaryReportforDirectEconomicLossforVehiclesDayandNight
TherearenoresultsforIndirectEconomicImpactwithorwithoutAidforIncomeand
EmploymentImpactwithoutsideaid.Thisresultaccountsforseveraldifferenteconomic
sectorsincludingagricultural,mining,transportation,trade,services,andgovernment.
TheshelterneedsundertheLossestabareshowninTable17.
Table17HAZUSMHShelterSummaryReport
Toassembletheresults,GotoResults>SummaryReports>Other>QuickAssessment
Report>SingleReturnPeriodScenario.TherearenodifferencesintheQuick
AssessmentReportwhentheyearofanalysischosenforbothisfora100yearevent.
ThereportisshowninFigure38foraSingleReturnPeriod.Thisreportshowsnospecific
informationfortransportation.MostofthisinformationisnotessentialfortheSTELLA
modelforanalyzingthetransportationinfrastructure.
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Figure38QuickAssessmentReportforaSingleReturnPeriod
Source:Outputfrom(FEMA2007).
Anotherresultoptionistheoverallsummaryoftheanalysis.GotoResults>Summary
Reports>Other>GlobalSummaryReport.Thisoptiongeneratesareportwithmany
pages.Thisreportisnotrelevant,because,onceagain,itfocusesinbuildings,andthe
bestresultpossibletousefortransportationinfrastructureanalysisisthevalueof
exposure.Thereforetheactualreportisnotreplicatedinthisworkingpaper.Thistype
ofreportgeneratedisidenticaltothatfortheSingleReturnPeriodwithnoWhatIf
scenarioadded,bothfor100yearevent.HoweverifaWhatIfscenarioforaLeveeis
consideredfortheSingleReturnPeriod,andtheanalysisforGBSisnotcompleted,the
differencesare:
BuildingExposurebyOccupancyTypefortheScenariovaluesdovary
asshowninFigure39,
GBSDamageisnotestimatedbecausetheanalysiswasnotdone,
InducedFloodDamageDebrisGenerationnumbersvary(i.e.,2,797
tonsrequiring112truckloadstoremovedebrisintheAnnualLoss
Scenario,and2,965tonsrequiring119truckloadstoremovedebris
intheSingleR.P.LeveeScenario),
SocialImpactShelterRequirementsnumbersvary(i.e.,345
householdsdisplacedand678peopleneedingtemporarysheltersin
theAnnualLossScenario,and353householdsdisplacedand673
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peopleneedingtemporarysheltersintheSingleR.P.LeveeScenario),
and
EconomicLossBuildingRelatedLossesarenotestimatedbecause
analysiswasnotdone.
Figure39ComparisonbetweenGlobalSummaryforAnnualLossandSingleReturnPeriodLevee
DiscussionandEvaluationHAZUSResults
Theseresultsshowhowsomepossiblemitigationoptionsimpacttheoverallproblem.
TheoptionofbuildingaLeveeatthelocationshowninFigure20aggravatesthe
floodingprobleminsteadofminimizingit.
Therefore,itisimportanttoevaluatetheresultstodetermineiftheyarereasonableand
readytobeused.Thedecisionmakersshouldgivetheirinputs,andalsothereshouldbe
acomparisontotherealeventthattookplaceandthehistorical,documentedlosses
suchasTable10andtherelatedgraphinFigure25.Consideringthefactorsthatcan
impactthestudyregion,theresultscanbererunanddocumentedtosupportmitigation
strategies.Atthisstageonecanidentifytheassetsthataresubjecttothegreatest
potentialdamage(FEMA2004).
TheoutputsfromHAZUSMHinrelationtothetypeoftransportationinfrastructurethis
researchfocusesonfavorsbridges.Becausethegoalofthisresearchfocuseson
mitigationmeasuresforroads,thebroaderperspectiveprovidedbyHAZUSMHonly
giveslimitedinsightsintospecificmeasurestomitigatedamageandlosses.Thisleadsto
thelaststepintheprocessforconsideringthemitigationoptionsdeveloped.
ThelaststepinHAZUSMHistoconsidermitigationoptionsassociatedandresponsive
tothelossescalculatedwithanemphasisonthebuildinginventory.InHAZUSMH,
lossesareestimatedbasedonthecosttorepairorreplacedamageto,orlossof,the
buildinginventory(FEMA2004).Theeffectivenessofregulatoryortechnical
(protectionorcontrol)mitigationmeasuresmustrelyontheexpertiseofprofessionals
andtheknowledgeoflocalperspectivesandneeds.Mitigationoptionsmustbe
evaluatedforeffectiveness,acceptability,andfeasibilitywithrespecttoprevailing
conditionsinthecommunity.Thisevaluationismeanttohelpnarrowandprioritize
optionsconsideringtheonesthathavethegreatestchanceforeffective
implementation,includinglocalandstateresources.Thequestionstobeanswered,
basedonFEMA(FEMA2004)andtailoredtotransportationinfrastructure,are
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Whichmitigationmeasuresaremostappropriatefortherisk
associatedtothelocalroadsforthecommunity?
Istheresufficientcapabilitytoimplementthesemeasuresand
assistanceneeded?
Howwilltheimplementationofthesemeasuresimpacttheroad
conditionforthecommunity?
Asonecanimagine,theseanswersrequirefurtheranalysisthatthepresentversionof
HAZUSMHdoesnotprovide.TheSTELLAmodelisdesignedtoprovidethisanalysis.
TheevaluationofmitigationoptionsinHAZUSMHfollowsthesesteps(FEMA2004)
1. identifytherangeofpreliminarymitigationoptionsbystructure(and
byhazard);
2. reviewtheappropriatenessofmeasuresaccordingtoneedsand
desiresofthecommunity;
3. evaluateimplementationofpossiblemitigationoptionsintermsof
effectivenessforreducingrisk;and
4. determinemitigationoptionconflictsifconsideringacombinationof
hazards,andhelpintegrateoptionsintothemitigationplan.
TheidentificationofpreliminarymitigationoptionsbasedonHAZUSMHlossestimates
startsbyselectingtheareaofmajorloss.Thiswasalreadydefinedasthetransportation
infrastructure,independentofotherareas.ThisinformationisnotpresentintheGlobal
SummaryReportforAnnualizedLosses,andasexplainedearlier,thereisnovalue
calculatedinHAZUSMHfordirecteconomiclossanalysisfortransportation.Thebasic
informationavailableistheestimationfortransportationexposurepresentedinTable
11.Forthestudyregion,thehighwaysegmentsarevaluedatUS$205,419.68(thousands
ofdollars).However,exposureandlossarenotthesame.Makingtheassumptionthat
thesegmentsatriskare15%ofthetotalexposurevalue;lossescanbeestimatedas
US$30,812.95(thousandsofdollars).Thisaccountsforthehighwaysegmentsthatare
vulnerableduetoproximitytoriversandfloodproneareas.Forthesesegments
mitigationmeasuresareneededthatconsiderthesite/location.Thesemitigation
measuresmayincluderegulatorymeasuresintheformofdesignstandards(building
codes).Thisvulnerabilityalsoleadstolookingatstructuralneeds.Inotherwords,
mitigationmeasurescanbebothstructuralandregulatorymeasuresthatinclude
optionsforrehabilitation,protectiveandcontrol(FEMA2004).Examplesofregulatory
measuresinclude
legislationintendedtoprotectcommunityfromhazards
(organizesanddistributeresponsibilities),
financialandsocialimpactreductionregulations(i.e.,
insurance),
buildingcodes,
landuseandzoningregulations,
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incentivesforimplementingmitigationmeasures,
emergencypreparednessmeasurestohelpprotectpeople
andpropertyagainsthazard(duringandafterevent),
education(publicawareness),
naturalresourceprotection(preserveandrestorenatural
systems).
Regulatorymitigationmeasuresforfloodscanbeusedtoguidedevelopmenttonon
floodproneareasandtoensurethatfloodinghazardsareaddressedinnewdeveloped
floodproneareasthroughfloodwaysand/orriverineflooding.Floodplainregulations
andbuildingcodesrecognizehazardsandaddressfloodloadsinplanninganddesignof
newbuildingsandinfrastructure.Thecodescanbe/areappliedtodamagedbuildings
thatneedrepairorreconstruction,imposingthesamedegreeofprotectionfornew
constructions(oldbuildingsrehabilitation,elevationinplace,floodproofingdesignto
floodlevels).
Therehabilitationofinfrastructurefacilitiesisrelatedtostructuralandnonstructural
modificationsofitselements.Theideaistoimprovesafetyandreducetheimpactof
hazardevents.Therisktotheinfrastructureisoftenbecauseofitslocationinahazard
pronearea.Thelevelofdamagerelatesthestructuraldesignandconstructionquality
withrespecttothecapabilityforresistingtheforcesofnatureandtheintensityofthe
event.Locationandstructurecombinedcanincreaseinfrastructurevulnerability,which
mitigationmeasuresmusttakeinconsideration.Mitigationmeasurescouldbeto
remove,relocate,and/ortoelevatestructuresinplace.Eachofthesepossiblemeasures
hasdifferentcosts.Thatiswhenthecommunityandstakeholdersmustprioritize
optionsbyimportanceandvulnerability.
ApplicationtotheCaseStudy
TheseoptionsguidedthefurtherassessmentofUS13usingtheSTELLAmodelforthe
casestudy.DamagetotransportationinfrastructurerelatedtoUS13duetothefloodof
June25,2006areshowninFigure40.
Figure40DamagerelatedtoUS13inSussexCounty
Source:(Parsons2006;DelDOTTMC2006).
Threetrafficdetourswerealsosetupduringtheevent.Thesedetourswasdefinedand
documentedusingaphysicalmapasshowninFigure41.
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Figure41DetoursSetUpduringtheFloodofJune25,2006
Source:(DelDOTTMC2006).
Rehabilitationofexistingstructuresrecognizingapreselectedfloodlevelcanreduce
damageprovidedmoreseverefloodingdoesnotoccur.Acquisitionanddemolitionof
buildinginfloodproneareasreducesexposureandhelpsrestorethenaturalfunctionof
floodplains.Relocationofbuildingstohigherground,andretrofitofinfrastructure(i.e.
modifiedbridgesthatreducesbackwaterflooding)areexamplesofotherpossible
measures.
Protectiveandcontrolmeasuresfocusondeflectingthedestructiveforcesfrom
vulnerablestructuresandpeople,orerectingprotectivebarriers(FEMA2004).
Examplesarelevees,damsandreservoirs,dischargecanals,floodwalls,shelters,and
protectivevegetationbelts.Thesemeasuresmodifythesource/pathoffloodingto
directfloodwatersawayfromdevelopedareas(structuralfloodcontrolmeasures).They
includedecreasingrunoff,andaugmentingthecapacityfordischarge,floodwater
containment,diversion,andstorage.Thesemeasuresmaynotbefeasibleinallcontexts
orlocations.
ThereviewofmitigationmeasuresmustconsiderFEMAsevaluationcriteriafor
proposals.Thecriteria,referredtoastheSTAPLEEevaluationcriteria,arealready
partiallytakeninconsiderationintheHAZUSMHsoftware.Theseevaluationcriteria
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social,technical,administrative,political,legal,economic,andenvironmentalcapture
opportunitiesandconstraintsformitigationmeasuresasfollows:
Socialcriterialookstodevelopacommunityconsensusfor
implementingthemitigationmeasures.
Technicalcriteriatakecareoftechnicalfeasibility,whichincludes
effectiveness,secondaryimpacts,implementationandsustaining
technicalcapabilities.
Administrativecriterialookatorganizations,staff,andfunding
sources.
Politicalcriteriaincludethesupportformitigationmeasuresfrom
stakeholders,politicalorganizationsandinstitutionsinsideand
outsidethecommunity.
Legalcriterialookfortheappropriatelegalauthoritytoimplement
eachindividualmeasure,besidescodes,ordinances,andmore.
Economiccriterialooksatcosteffectivenessandimpactsof
measureseventofuturedevelopment,whichbenefitsareexpected
toexceedcosts.
Environmentalcriterialookforbenefitingtheenvironment.
Theseevaluationaspectscanbebetterincludedintheanalysisinthemodeldeveloped
inSTELLA.Thesecriteriabegintoprovideatimeframeformitigationandavoid
problemssuchasobsolescenceorinfeasibility.Figure42showsthefactorsbeing
consideredforevaluatingandadoptingamitigationmeasure,wherea(+)signmustbe
assignedforfavorableevaluations,a()signforlessfavorableevaluations,andanN/Aif
notapplicable.Theassumptionmadehereisthatsomemitigationmeasuresdeveloped
havelessfavorableevaluations,andthusaretakenoutofthelistofmitigationoptions.
Figure42STAPLEECriteriaforEvaluatingMitigationMeasures
Source:(RockIslandCounty2008).
Thefinalidentificationoftheoptionsformitigationisbasedontheevaluationand
comparisonofmeasures.Thefloodmodelhasabuiltinfeaturespecificallydesignedto
supportmitigationplanning(FEMA2004),withwhatifscenarios(i.e.,leveeforflood
depths,flowregulationfornewreservoirs)thattestsmitigationmeasuresproducing
UDUTCWorkingPaper
Page56
newlossestimates.Asshownbefore,theavailablemitigationoptionforLeveeapplied
tothatlocationdoesnotlessentheproblem.Thefollowinganalysisconsidersthe
resultsfortheAnnualizedLossesscenariofromHAZUSMH,principallybecausecurrent
resultsdolittlefortransportationinfrastructure.
Theverificationofmitigationoptionsfirstconsidersconflictingmeasuresamong
differenthazards.Asthiscasestudyisonlyassessingfloodingissues,thereareno
conflictingmitigationmeasuresinrelationtodifferenthazards.Thenthereisthe
confirmationofoptions(adecision)andtheintegrationofitinthemitigationplanwhich
mustmeettheDMA2000requirements.
Asummaryoftheoutputsforrecoveryandmitigationmeasuresforthiscasestudyis
showninTable18modifiedfromFEMAsguide(FEMA2004).
Table18SummarizedMitigationMeasuresbasedonHAZUSMHandHistoryforTransportation
InfrastructureRoads
Mitigation
Output
Completed
Activities
Items
Regulatorymeasures:
reinforcementofconstructioncodes(i.e.,elevatedegreeofprotectionfor
rehabilitation,elevateroaddesigntofloodlevel,engineeringdesign
improvement,siteaccesspoints,roadway/pedestrianpaths)
HAZUSMH
incentivesformitigationmeasuresimplementation,flowregulation
mitigation
educationmeasures(publicawareness)
insights
naturalresourceprotectionmeasure(preserveandrestorenatural
Preliminary
systems)
options
Rehabilitationmeasures(cost,importance,vulnerability?):
structuralandnonstructuralmodificationsofroadsegments(i.e.increase
structuralresistanceimpactload,retrofitroadways,enlargeroad
shoulders)
improvehighwayslightsandsigns
remove,relocate,and/ortoelevateroads/roadsegmentstomeetnew
performanceobjectives
Protectiveandcontrolmeasures
floodwalls,levee,warningsystem(i.e.,basedonweatherforecast)
protectivevegetationbelts
reviewandbuildconnections
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Page57
ContinueTable18.
Reviewof
options
Finallistof
options
Verification
ofoptions
Regulatorymeasures:
reinforcementofconstructioncodes(i.e.,elevatedegreeofprotectionfor
rehabilitation,elevateroaddesigntofloodlevel,engineeringdesign
improvement,siteaccesspoints,roadway/pedestrianpaths)
STAPLEE
Rehabilitationmeasures(cost,importance,vulnerability?):
structuralandnonstructuralmodificationsofroadsegments(i.e.increase
structuralresistanceimpactload,retrofitroadways,enlargeroad
shoulders),
improvehighwayslightsandsigns
remove,relocate,and/ortoelevateroads/roadsegmentstomeetnew
performanceobjectives
Protectiveandcontrolmeasures
floodwalls,warningsystem(i.e.,basedonweatherforecast)
reviewandbuildconnections
Tobe
ImpossiblewithcurrentHAZUSMHfunctions,forexceptionforthe
further
adoptionofwarningsystemalreadyincludedincurrentresults.
exploredin
AlthoughthelistedmitigationoptionscouldallbeanalyzedforUS13,these
STELLA
optionsarelatercarefullyreviewedtoreachanimprovedresilienceof
transportationsystemgoal.HAZUSMHdoesnotdiscussresilience.
Noconflictingmeasures tomitigatehazardimpact.
Source:modifiedfrom(FEMA2004).
Theintegrationofmeasuresintomitigationplansisconsideredonlyforthe
transportationinfrastructureatthelocallevel,whichinDelawareingeneralisunderthe
responsibilityoftheDepartmentofTransportation.Theimpactsaffectingthe
communityalsofallundertheresponsibilityoftheDelawareEmergencyManagement
Agency(DEMA).Thereforethesearethetwoprimarydecisionmakersintheprocess.
HoweverbecauseFEMAistheprimaryagencyresponsiblefordisasterrelatedfunding,
thisagencyisalsoincludedasadecisionmaker.(AlsoHAZUSMHwasspecially
developedforFEMAandthisisreflectedintheanalysis.)Whiletherearesuggestions
thatincludethesedecisionmakersintheHAZUSMHanalysisprocess,thereisnoinput
inthecurrentmodelofthedecisionprocess.Theonlyinputsarefordataandalterations
tothecurrentmodels.
Thecurrentdata,inventory,analysisandestimationresults,andmitigationinsights
comingfromHAZUSMHincludedintheSTELLAmodelaredescribedintheDeveloping
theSTELLAModelforaDSSforMitigationStrategiesforTransportationInfrastructure
workingpaper.Therearenorealisticresultstobecommunicatedtothepublic,
stakeholdersordecisionmakersfromthecurrentresults.Decisionmakersandthe
decisionprocessarerepresentedinSTELLAintermsofdevelopingmitigationmeasures
focusingonimprovingtheresilienceoftransportationsystem,usingasanexample
highwayUS13.
UDUTCWorkingPaper
Page58
Acknowledgments
TheauthorwouldliketothanktheUniversityofDelaware,UniversityTransportation
Center,andtheDelawareDepartmentofTransportationforsponsoringthisresearch.
TheauthorwouldalsoliketothankPhDSueMcNeil,ProfessorintheDepartmentof
CivilEngineering,DirectoroftheDisasterResearchCenter,andAdviserforallthe
patience,hardworkandsupportduringalltheprocessofthisresearch.
UDUTCWorkingPaper
Page59
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